Nothing earth shattering here - and I know I am not coming up with new thoughts. This is simply to help me (maybe you?) put into words where this franchise is going with this draft class and offseason overall.
Route 1:
*All in on the next QB*
Even though they lost a valuable piece of currency to trade up from #6 - they have the ammo to get up to number three. #6, the 2025 first, and another day 2 pick (this year or next) should get it done. No question. I feel confident this can be done. because ATL is the only realistic team within striking distance of getting up that high. LV? MIN? DEN? Getting to #3 from outside of top ten is almost unheard of.
If they have the franchise QB grade on three guys - they can sit back and just wait to see who escapes the top 2. If they only have that outlook on 1-2 guys - that is where this gets tricky. On the flip side - if they have similar grades on 4 guys - the cost for moving to 4 (or 5) won't cost as much. I have to think they would have a preference, however.
Based on past profiles (which is not the end all) - I think FO would lean toward Maye. He has issues that need to be fixed - but they have the season-plus to fix and develop.
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Route 2:
*Punt on QB. Continue to build this offense with 2025 in mind.*
NYG will wait to address long term QB in 2025. They will have some spending flexibility if a Dak Prescott shakes free or they could be the top destination for whatever veteran comes available. And yes - there will be some prime draft candidates in next year's crop.
But without knowing where you'll be sitting slot wise - this seems like a stretch. This philosophy centers around building the nucleus so well that it almost won't matter who is under center as long as the guy is somewhat capable. See Detroit and Jared Goff. See Los Angeles and Matthew Stafford.
Taking this route allows NYG to go after a true #1 WR prospect or a high-end OT prospect. Based on numbers alone - they will have one or both of those options available at #6. You develop them in year one and expect them to be REAL DUDES in year two.
The last variable here is shopping #6 to teams looking for a QB. NO, DEN, MIN...if NYG can load up on extra 2025 draft picks - it widens the possibility of getting whatever QB they want in next year's draft in addition to extra capital.
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Route 3:
*Take the defensive player you want*
I do not see any scenario where a defensive player comes off the board before #6. One could make the argument we do not see one in the top 10. If NYG has a high enough grade on any of them (any position) - you get that final blue chip piece.
I know, offense offense offense. NYG is so far away from contenders on that side of the ball. Remember NYG fans - you can never have enough pass rushers. Ever. NYG could have whichever one they want at #6, possibly even after a slight trade down (#10 if NYJ needs an OT1?)
The move for Brian Burns is encouraging to me. Why? I said this last year - this team has zero identity. None whatsoever. They haven't had one for years. We thought it would be Odell + Barkley...explosive plays left and right. We thought it could be ground and pound once the former was traded to Cleveland. We thought it could be an efficient offense after year one of Daboll.
Fail, fail, fail. When others zig - you need to zag. Everyone (almost) in the NFL is pursuing explosive plays and scoring more points. Why not try to build an elite defense? There are pieces in place for this to happen - but there is a need for more weaponry. You get another pass rusher in here and he hits? Now NYG can say they have something nobody else has.
And, of course - you find the QB in 2025.
What do we think? I know I have a preference on which direction I want - but I do think a case can be made for any of the three.
Remember - open minds.
Why do you believe there will be more and better prospects next year, and why do you believe the Giants will be picking at the top of the draft?
Did the "Pass on a QB and fill out the roster" really leave the Giants still picking at 6 or higher? If so, that plan may be very flawed.
It seems to be a recurring theme on here that all of MHJ, Odunze and Nabers are all going to be superstars but the QBs are too much of a risk to take a chance.
One or more of the WRs could be Charles Rogers or Darrius Hayward Bey
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
This drafts top WRs have a fair claim to being a better group than even Chase/Devonta/Waddle, if the worst case scenario is adding a WR on that level and then maybe also getting a dart throw at Nix or Penix that's not so bad (even if they need to trade up to the back end of round 1 and overdraft slightly to do it). Their 2025 first and #45 should be able to get them pretty high up back into the first round if that's what they want to do.
And it makes me wonder
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
This drafts top WRs have a fair claim to being a better group than even Chase/Devonta/Waddle, if the worst case scenario is adding a WR on that level and then maybe also getting a dart throw at Nix or Penix that's not so bad (even if they need to trade up to the back end of round 1 and overdraft slightly to do it). Their 2025 first and #45 should be able to get them pretty high up back into the first round if that's what they want to do.
I wouldn't trade a 2025 first for Nix or Penix.
I also would not be opposed or upset if they cannot move up and the QB they want is not there at #6 and they trade out of #6 to the 10-12 slot for an additional 2nd and 3rd round pick - whatever the price is. Then load up with as many pieces as possible.
I also wouldn't mind a flyer on Nix(if a trade back - not at 6). Taylor showed that a QB with even the slightest ability to read a defense could move the ball. Nix is a lot better than Taylor IMHO.
Six seasons. One playoff game.
Beckham and Barkley together in 2018 for Saquon's brilliant rookie season. Record 5-11.
The only elite WR for Parcell's and Coughlin's two apiece Super Bowl seasons was Plax. All the others were out of football two or three years later.
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
Agreed. If we really want to pivot away from Jones in a big way, we need to buy the Pats #3 spot.
It's got to be a Vito Corleone move where we make them an offer they can't refuse. May have to be willing to toss in KT to really sweeten the deal.
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My concern is if Arizona wants MHJr they will want more than chart value because Los Angeles could trade with someone who wants him
This for the morons who just don't get it. AZ is going to want a haul to move to 6. All this crab about Nabors being close to him is BS. MH Jr s the safest and most likely best player period. AZ needs him as Murray is about as average a Qb as there is despite all his never ending hype by some. And the Chargers can probably turn that 5th pick into a lot. Mitch Trubisky went 1st. Some team Amy be wiling to mortgage a lot to get JJ Daniels or Maye if he falls somehow.
The desire to be rid of Jones makes sense on and emotional level. But rationally you stay at 6 IMO
Draft a WR and Jones is healthy and plays well as offense OL is better and legit WR makes difference
You can do this 100 times and spin however you want
The GM and coach have seen this QB play 22 games with a playoff win. Is the 5 1/2 games in 2023, most w/o AT, Barkley and WanDale enough to suddenly trade all sorts of assets for another question mark. I don’t see it that way
Williams is the closest to the sure thing but as mentioned Lawrence was viewed as the best QB prospect since Luck and people here would move on from him
I am not throwing away assets to chase a QB
What exactly are you expecting from the '24 season? We should all resign ourselves to another mediocre season and that's ok because this draft will at least get us back on track. What were the first few seasons of Eli like? They were ready to run TC out of town. If we go QB then you need to lower your expectations for '24.
As far as Bo Nix goes I don't have the skill set to make an educated prediction whether his ceiling is a top 10 NFL QB or a career backup. I do know it's really hard to evaluate how college QBs will translate in the NFL because the minor league competition level, the types of throws and pre and post snap responsibilities are dramatically more challenging in the NFL. GMs who are paid millions of dollars to make those evaluations bat well under .300 from what I can see.
Here are the QBs drafted in the top 11 in the past 6 drafts:
2018
#1 Mayfield - average starter
#3 Darnold - bottom 10 starter or backup
#7 Allen - top 5 tier QB
#10 Rosen - out of the NFL
2019
#1 Murray - average starter
#6 Jones - bottom 10 starter or backup
2020
#1 Burrow - top 5 tier QB
#5 Tagovailoa - average starter
#6 Herbert - top 10 tier QB
2021
#1 Lawrence - top 15 tier QB
#2 Wilson - bottom 10 starter or backup
#3 Lance - bottom 10 starter or backup
#11* Fields - bottom 10 starter or backup *Giants pick
2022
No QBs taken in the top 11
2023 (too early to tell I think, but based on rookie years)
#1 Young - His team, front office and owner are so bad that he may fail
#2 Stroud - top 10 tier in a remarkable rookie season. Let's see year 2
#4 Richardson - played better than expected until he got hurt. Has to protect himself better.
16 QBs taken top 11 since 2018.
2 - top 5 QBs Allen and Burrow
2 - top 10 QBs counting Stroud and Herbert
1 - top 15 Lawrence (as he gets more experience he could move up to top 10)
3 - average starters Mayfield, Murray and Tua
6 - bottom 10 starter/backup or out of the league
2 - Too soon to tell Young and Richardson
11 QBs taken top 5. Burrow and Stroud (it's too early to really tell on Stroud) are the only 2 of the 11 that you could call "franchise" QBs.
I think if a QB is picked top 10, certainly top 5 the expectation of the team that drafts him is that he will develop into a top 10 NFL QB. I consider 4 out of the 16 QBs drafted top 11 since 2018 to be top 10 NFL QBs and one of them has only played his rookie year. That's a .250 batting average giving Stroud the benefit of the doubt that he doesn't regress. If he does and it's 3 out 16 that's a .188 average.
Picking a QB top 10 in the draft is not for a GM who is faint of heart. More than likely if you end up with a bottom 10 stater/backup you get fired. But I think teams need a top 10 NFL QB to be serious Super Bowl contenders. I think the Giants GM and HC think so too.
Excellent post.
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the fight over those draft slots 1-4 is less about whatever they are willing to give up and more about whatever other teams are willing to give up and where Arizona wants to land.
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
Agreed. If we really want to pivot away from Jones in a big way, we need to buy the Pats #3 spot.
It's got to be a Vito Corleone move where we make them an offer they can't refuse. May have to be willing to toss in KT to really sweeten the deal.
Was thinking the same.
It continues to amaze me that because some people don’t want to give up 2 years of prime picks to trade that they are QB averse - ridiculous.
Is Maye or Daniels considered better prospects as Darnold, Wilson, Rosen, Lawrence, Burrow, Tua, Herbert, Mayfield, Stroud, Young, Allen, etc. Rosen was as big as Maye and everyone said he could make every throw. If you are prepared to give up the farm you better get a sure thing
Trading up to No.3 NE would be ideal but that's VERY LOW CHANCE (I think 1,2,3 are QB and I don't think NE will trade down, don't want to be disappointed until it really happens), so 4 or 5 would be ideal spot to trade up if Giants have Maye, JJM in the same tier. I think Sy would approve it.
If he were to fall and the other 3 QBs go 1-2-3 it would be interesting to see how the Giants play that out.
But I wouldn’t complain with option 1.
See what you have. If not enough you draft a qb down the road who is better than then the qb you draft this year.
It's a crap shoot with qb's even if they are picked in the top ten.
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Schoen needs to be proactive here and target the NE pick.
Trading up to No.3 NE would be ideal but that's VERY LOW CHANCE (I think 1,2,3 are QB and I don't think NE will trade down, don't want to be disappointed until it really happens), so 4 or 5 would be ideal spot to trade up if Giants have Maye, JJM in the same tier. I think Sy would approve it.
Rickey
@PrettyRickey213
Been saying and hearing Broncos love JJ and that Vikings having considerable talks with Cardinals about the fourth pick. Vikings are the current betting favorites to land JJ McCarthy, followed by Giants and Broncos.
This person correctly predicted Burns' trade and contract, as well as Calvin Ridley's destination before it was announced. Some speculate that this may be a front office or agent burner account. It seems that the Vikings may be considering jumping ahead of the Giants. Schoen should strive to be proactive, unlike Gettlemen or Reese.
@AllbrightNFL
If I had to guess today: QB match to team drafting them edition.
Caleb Williams - Bears
Jayden Daniels - Commanders
JJ McCarthy - Vikings*
Drake Maye - Giants
Bo Nix - Broncos?
Penix - Seahawks
Rattler - Buccaneers
*=trade up
8:06 AM · Mar 8, 2024
1. 2024 probably looks like 2023 in that the Giants probably get starts from all 3 quarterbacks
2. Reasonable expectation is 5-8 wins
3. After 2024 season Jones is cut, Lock is FA, DeVito is ERFA
4. Top of the FA QB market is Prescott, Goff...maybe Tua?
5. Giants pick anywhere from 5-12ish in a draft where the only first round guys are Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe.
Is that a more fertile landscape to add the next starting QB than the current one?
Absolutely not. The time to get a QB is now. If we want to keep building the rest of the team, I could see taking a run at Rattler in the 3rd or 4th (I cant forecast outside of round 1), letting Lock take a shot, if he fails, go with Rattler and see if he keeps progressing. Then we go into next year with Lock or Rattler, see what steps forward they take and if theres no progress, try again in '26.
I dont know. I think we either take a QB at 6 or day 2 this year. I think 6 is a great spot to pick Maye, an ok one to take JJ. But if either are there, wee pretty much have to take one.
But at the end of the day, if Schoen/Daboll build a good TEAM, with a hole at QB, I dont think that should get them fired.
If Schoen takes Odunze at 6, fixes the line, gets us players where we are a tough D again and Daboll gets the most out of our QB situation (meaning their talent might come up short, but we are RIGHT there) I think should get to keep working.
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In comment 16430983 Sean said:
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Schoen needs to be proactive here and target the NE pick.
Trading up to No.3 NE would be ideal but that's VERY LOW CHANCE (I think 1,2,3 are QB and I don't think NE will trade down, don't want to be disappointed until it really happens), so 4 or 5 would be ideal spot to trade up if Giants have Maye, JJM in the same tier. I think Sy would approve it.
Rickey
@PrettyRickey213
Been saying and hearing Broncos love JJ and that Vikings having considerable talks with Cardinals about the fourth pick. Vikings are the current betting favorites to land JJ McCarthy, followed by Giants and Broncos.
This person correctly predicted Burns' trade and contract, as well as Calvin Ridley's destination before it was announced. Some speculate that this may be a front office or agent burner account. It seems that the Vikings may be considering jumping ahead of the Giants. Schoen should strive to be proactive, unlike Gettlemen or Reese.
Someone asked if this was imminent Pretty Rickey replied:
“There's no rush to get these done right now but teams like to know if they have the capital to make a move. Most teams do due diligence calls but am hearing that Cardinals and Vikings have momentum in getting something done.”
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In comment 16430983 Sean said:
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Schoen needs to be proactive here and target the NE pick.
Trading up to No.3 NE would be ideal but that's VERY LOW CHANCE (I think 1,2,3 are QB and I don't think NE will trade down, don't want to be disappointed until it really happens), so 4 or 5 would be ideal spot to trade up if Giants have Maye, JJM in the same tier. I think Sy would approve it.
Rickey
@PrettyRickey213
Been saying and hearing Broncos love JJ and that Vikings having considerable talks with Cardinals about the fourth pick. Vikings are the current betting favorites to land JJ McCarthy, followed by Giants and Broncos.
This person correctly predicted Burns' trade and contract, as well as Calvin Ridley's destination before it was announced. Some speculate that this may be a front office or agent burner account. It seems that the Vikings may be considering jumping ahead of the Giants. Schoen should strive to be proactive, unlike Gettlemen or Reese.
Just to put things in context, this person also said: (1) the Giants are being very tight lipped on what the overall plan is for QB, (2) the Giants are not revealing their cards about what they are thinking re: QB in the draft other than that they like Maye, (3) the Giants should have the chance to match any trade offer the Cardinals get, and (4) the Cardinals are going to call every QB needy team prior to making a deal to see if anyone can match/top the best offer.
I would add that Schoen said this about his 2023 draft day trade with the Jags:“You try to go through as many of those scenarios as you can, and you know, you make the phone calls with the other general managers throughout the league and you have good dialogue and conversations, where if you get on the clock and there’s an opportunity.”
Bottom line is that I think that the Giants will have the chance to match or top any offer the Vikings make the Cardinals -- keep in mind the Cardinals don't have to go as far down in a trade with the Giants and there is a better chance the Giants are worse next year than the Vikings (which makes the Giants' future picks potentially more valuable). I also think that Schoen is doing his due dilligence on trading up to #4 assuming he wants to get up there to draft McCarthy.
Could be. Also leaking of these apparent Minnesota and Arizona talks could be Arizona wanting to generate more activity from the Giants and/or Denver. I do tend to believe the report about the Giants calling into the Top 3 because Breer I think is still pretty connected in New England so he probably has the Giants calling them pretty cold.
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In comment 16430983 Sean said:
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Schoen needs to be proactive here and target the NE pick.
Trading up to No.3 NE would be ideal but that's VERY LOW CHANCE (I think 1,2,3 are QB and I don't think NE will trade down, don't want to be disappointed until it really happens), so 4 or 5 would be ideal spot to trade up if Giants have Maye, JJM in the same tier. I think Sy would approve it.
Rickey
@PrettyRickey213
Been saying and hearing Broncos love JJ and that Vikings having considerable talks with Cardinals about the fourth pick. Vikings are the current betting favorites to land JJ McCarthy, followed by Giants and Broncos.
This person correctly predicted Burns' trade and contract, as well as Calvin Ridley's destination before it was announced. Some speculate that this may be a front office or agent burner account. It seems that the Vikings may be considering jumping ahead of the Giants. Schoen should strive to be proactive, unlike Gettlemen or Reese.
The Vikings would trade the Cardinals Justin Jefferson and maybe a 2nd in addition to their 1st to get the 4th overall pick is how I see it.
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who don't want to risk drafting a QB in 2024 because you can just get one in 2025.
Why do you believe there will be more and better prospects next year, and why do you believe the Giants will be picking at the top of the draft?
Did the "Pass on a QB and fill out the roster" really leave the Giants still picking at 6 or higher? If so, that plan may be very flawed.
It seems to be a recurring theme on here that all of MHJ, Odunze and Nabers are all going to be superstars but the QBs are too much of a risk to take a chance.
One or more of the WRs could be Charles Rogers or Darrius Hayward Bey
Heyward Bey rose because of his combine performance and was not thought of as high as he went leading up to that. Rogers was derailed by injuries. All 3 WR’s this year have been Top 10 picks since the regular season ended if not higher. That is not to say that they are free of bust potential or that injuries can’t happen, but the comparisons you used were not accurate.
If the QB is there...you take him. Otherwise make your defense awesome and get your offense to be serviceable.
It's a great spot to be in if Maye doesn't go 2. Let it play out with Odunze as the backup plan.
You'd think LA would want to go OT with Harbaugh establishing a new offense.
Sure they have, it’s just that they are as desperate for a QB as we are so they’re pegged to take one. There are also some rumblings of them trading Howell to Denver which reinforce them taking one.
I don't think WR or QB matter until you show you can consistently pass block.
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In comment 16430986 Rave7 said:
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In comment 16430983 Sean said:
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Schoen needs to be proactive here and target the NE pick.
Trading up to No.3 NE would be ideal but that's VERY LOW CHANCE (I think 1,2,3 are QB and I don't think NE will trade down, don't want to be disappointed until it really happens), so 4 or 5 would be ideal spot to trade up if Giants have Maye, JJM in the same tier. I think Sy would approve it.
Rickey
@PrettyRickey213
Been saying and hearing Broncos love JJ and that Vikings having considerable talks with Cardinals about the fourth pick. Vikings are the current betting favorites to land JJ McCarthy, followed by Giants and Broncos.
This person correctly predicted Burns' trade and contract, as well as Calvin Ridley's destination before it was announced. Some speculate that this may be a front office or agent burner account. It seems that the Vikings may be considering jumping ahead of the Giants. Schoen should strive to be proactive, unlike Gettlemen or Reese.
The Vikings would trade the Cardinals Justin Jefferson and maybe a 2nd in addition to their 1st to get the 4th overall pick is how I see it.
Agreed. I think there is a high likelihood that the Vikings would include Justin Jefferson with any trade package to Arizona. They would have to, since Arizona would be giving up the chance to MHJ by moving down. Any package with Jefferson is more than the Giants could offer IMO.
I don't see Denver as a threat to move ahead of the Giants. They can't put together nearly the package that Minnesota can, especially since they don't have a second round pick.
The question is whether Las Vegas could move ahead of the Giants by trading with NE. They would have to offer a ton of draft capital to do so, but there are rumors that they love Daniels so I could see that happening. And again in that case, the Giants should not try and compete to offer a better package. Don't get into a "bidding war" for a player. I also don't think the Giants will try and move up for anyone but Maye.
The end result is that if the QBs go #1, #2, #3, and #4, then the Giants should either take Oduzne or Nabers at #6, or trade down.
- McCarthy feels like such a reach to me. I want no part of him at 6.
Keep building up the roster and keep an eye toward upgrading at QB when the situation it right. Big mistakes like paying Jones huge money or whiffing on a highly drafted QB are what needs to be avoided.
Also, not included because he was such a late pick - Lamar Jackson, drafted with the very last pick of the first round.
Yeah, the Ravens won the Super Bowl, then proceeded to draft their franchise QB from 32.
It's certainly a scary proposition to move up to get a guy. Whereas, if you don't, then your best option going forward is paying a free agent big money.
Me? Assuming the draft goes as expected, the idea of picking the BPA on defense at 6 is very interesting.
I know you save a LOT of money by getting a rookie QB who turns out to be a franchise guy, but as you all know, Dexter Lawrence wasn't exactly cheap this offseason, either.
But even that, I am OK going another direction. I actually think the team has so many holes that it would not be horrible to lose out on the QB sweepstakes. If you're not drafting the next Mahomes (I think Williams is that) then don't break the bank for a QB and develop one while going option 3.
Stay at #6 and take JJM, or if he's gone, take Odunze or Nabers or maybe trade down. Massive move ups for QBs rarely work. See Sam Darnold, RGIII, Trey Lance, and Mitch Trubisky.
Yes, but when they DO work, you can end up with Mahomes or Josh Allen.
So if the other options are to stay put and hope a QB you like falls to 6, take a flyer on another QB later in the draft and hope you strike gold or punt the decision to next year and hope that the QB class is just as good and the Giants are in a position to draft one... I know what I want them to do.
If NE or even Chicago were open to a trade, I much prefer the Giants to gamble and make the "massive" trade up.
I can’t believe Schoen and company have been here a dozen years already. Time sure does fly!
Is New England willing to trade down past 6 and lose out on top WRs?
Who else is moving up for Maye if not Minnesota? Maybe Denver? Maybe Vegas? That’s a big drop for someone to trade out of the top 10 to.
Rattler or id look at Milton
Shedeur Sanders, Carson Beck and Ewers can all play.
Who will possibly trade up to 4 or 5?
# 8 Atlanta--no way, they just signed Cousins to a huge deal.
#11 Minny--absolutely.
#12 Broncos--sure thing.
#13 Raiders--yeppers.
so, that is who we have to worry about and prevent by having potential trades setup to beat them out.
if only 3 QBs are rated worth #6, then we have to be lucky. if we aren't lucky then either trade down or choose the best WR available.