Nothing earth shattering here - and I know I am not coming up with new thoughts. This is simply to help me (maybe you?) put into words where this franchise is going with this draft class and offseason overall.
Route 1:
*All in on the next QB*
Even though they lost a valuable piece of currency to trade up from #6 - they have the ammo to get up to number three. #6, the 2025 first, and another day 2 pick (this year or next) should get it done. No question. I feel confident this can be done. because ATL is the only realistic team within striking distance of getting up that high. LV? MIN? DEN? Getting to #3 from outside of top ten is almost unheard of.
If they have the franchise QB grade on three guys - they can sit back and just wait to see who escapes the top 2. If they only have that outlook on 1-2 guys - that is where this gets tricky. On the flip side - if they have similar grades on 4 guys - the cost for moving to 4 (or 5) won't cost as much. I have to think they would have a preference, however.
Based on past profiles (which is not the end all) - I think FO would lean toward Maye. He has issues that need to be fixed - but they have the season-plus to fix and develop.
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Route 2:
*Punt on QB. Continue to build this offense with 2025 in mind.*
NYG will wait to address long term QB in 2025. They will have some spending flexibility if a Dak Prescott shakes free or they could be the top destination for whatever veteran comes available. And yes - there will be some prime draft candidates in next year's crop.
But without knowing where you'll be sitting slot wise - this seems like a stretch. This philosophy centers around building the nucleus so well that it almost won't matter who is under center as long as the guy is somewhat capable. See Detroit and Jared Goff. See Los Angeles and Matthew Stafford.
Taking this route allows NYG to go after a true #1 WR prospect or a high-end OT prospect. Based on numbers alone - they will have one or both of those options available at #6. You develop them in year one and expect them to be REAL DUDES in year two.
The last variable here is shopping #6 to teams looking for a QB. NO, DEN, MIN...if NYG can load up on extra 2025 draft picks - it widens the possibility of getting whatever QB they want in next year's draft in addition to extra capital.
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Route 3:
*Take the defensive player you want*
I do not see any scenario where a defensive player comes off the board before #6. One could make the argument we do not see one in the top 10. If NYG has a high enough grade on any of them (any position) - you get that final blue chip piece.
I know, offense offense offense. NYG is so far away from contenders on that side of the ball. Remember NYG fans - you can never have enough pass rushers. Ever. NYG could have whichever one they want at #6, possibly even after a slight trade down (#10 if NYJ needs an OT1?)
The move for Brian Burns is encouraging to me. Why? I said this last year - this team has zero identity. None whatsoever. They haven't had one for years. We thought it would be Odell + Barkley...explosive plays left and right. We thought it could be ground and pound once the former was traded to Cleveland. We thought it could be an efficient offense after year one of Daboll.
Fail, fail, fail. When others zig - you need to zag. Everyone (almost) in the NFL is pursuing explosive plays and scoring more points. Why not try to build an elite defense? There are pieces in place for this to happen - but there is a need for more weaponry. You get another pass rusher in here and he hits? Now NYG can say they have something nobody else has.
And, of course - you find the QB in 2025.
What do we think? I know I have a preference on which direction I want - but I do think a case can be made for any of the three.
Remember - open minds.
I would think it would be a very risky move to give up assets for #3 if they had no clue what Washington was going to do. If Schoen "somewhat knows" that Peters isn't going Maye, then it makes all the sense in the world. But to trade up to 3 and have to pick between some QBs who they "like" but don't love is not a good scenario.
If Maye is gone by 2, I would hope they stick to #2 in your scenarios.
One final question - do you think there is any talk at all about Giants moving up to #1?
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My preference is scenario 1 but if they can't trade up (I agree their target is probably Maye) do you think they'd be interested in the Nix/Penix tier?
I don't see that being the plan. Just creates more gray area.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
2) Stay put at 6th overall and draft a QB. Likely for Maye if he’s still there or McCarthy if they like him enough at 6th
3) Stay put at 6th overall and draft a non-QB, very likely one of MHJ, Nabers or Odunze. Take a QB with 2nd rounder or trade up into mid / late first round to get Penix or Nix.
4) Trade down a small amount, say with Bears at 9th overall. Pick up 3rd rounder and / or 2025 2nd rounder. Bears take WR and Giants take McCarthy.
5) Trade down a lot, say to mid / late first round. Get 2025 first rounder. Take Nix or Penix.
6) Take non QBs with 1st, 2nd and possibly 3rd rounder. Take a flyer on a developmental QB such as Joe Milton III
That’s what everyone said in 2019
I also think the Giants already have a feeling the guy they want is on that top 3.
If they were going QB I think they would have kept Taylor and eventually dumped Jones when healthy. Let the kid learn from Taylor as the starter. Taylor has done this before for 2 QBs. Taylor also knows the system very well.
The smart money is on WR at 6. Get either the best or 2nd best. They are all pretty much ranked in the top 10 everywhere so it’s not a stretch.
I 100% would not give away my 2025 1st rounder. It very likely will be in the top 10 and could be in the top 5 with no proven weapons on O.
I highly doubt pass rusher at 6 given the investment on Thibs and burns and the need matching value at WR.
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Nothing else matters
That’s what everyone said in 2019
No, everyone didn’t. Not with a moron GM making the decisions.
So the problem is that "The QB" is a finite resource. If the Giants think there are 3 of them, and those 3 are selected 1-2-3 in the draft with none of those teams willing to trade out, how do you "get the QB?"
I already think this is probably a much better team with the investments on OL/DL and the Jones/Barkley nightmare in the rearview mirror. I don't think the Giants are going to be picking this high again next year.
I hope a trade is available and that the Giants can move up for their guy if he is there, but I certainly don’t want them reaching. They have a complete roster that needs to be rebuilt, QB is the most important choice and they already screwed up once by signing a guy that isn’t it to a deal last year.
I do think 6 will be in play for a team that wants an OT before Tenn can take one.
I can see Chi as well as the Jets bumping up.
But now that you have Burns and Thibs, Edge isn't the move there. Don't see CB worth top 10.
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Nothing else matters
That’s what everyone said in 2019
Everyone was not saying that, no matter how many times you pretend they did. Most of this board wanted Josh Allen in the first and wanted no part of Haskins or Jones.
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In comment 16430384 Go Terps said:
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My preference is scenario 1 but if they can't trade up (I agree their target is probably Maye) do you think they'd be interested in the Nix/Penix tier?
I don't see that being the plan. Just creates more gray area.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
The Nix/Penix tier imv isn't good enough to draft as a replacement for Jones. YMMV, and therein lies the grey area, if I'm reading Sy correctly. But, if no QB in round 1 I'm more likely looking at CB or DL in round two (if they go WR at #6).
It's a rationalization that people who have convinced themselves that this year must be QB or bust have embraced. As you pointed out, there's no way to know how the next QB class shapes up. Now it is quite possible that next year class will suck but to state so with such conviction this early reeks of a bad faith argument.
Now it would be funny if the Giants felt the opposite and traded back to collect assets for the next draft class. I would do that myself but it is still a team building legitimate strategy.
P.S. If I started a thread with a wait until next year's draft to get the new QB, what's over/under until the first "They deserved to be fired if they did that response" 10/15 mins?
Plus, even if that's not the case, you are risking the injury guarantee by playing him as soon as he is able.
I already think this is probably a much better team with the investments on OL/DL and the Jones/Barkley nightmare in the rearview mirror. I don't think the Giants are going to be picking this high again next year.
Not to miller this thread, but I'm curious. You had concerns about Nix and his arm at the combine being able to make all the throws. Do you think he could still be worth a first round pick?
I would think it would be a very risky move to give up assets for #3 if they had no clue what Washington was going to do. If Schoen "somewhat knows" that Peters isn't going Maye, then it makes all the sense in the world. But to trade up to 3 and have to pick between some QBs who they "like" but don't love is not a good scenario.
If Maye is gone by 2, I would hope they stick to #2 in your scenarios.
One final question - do you think there is any talk at all about Giants moving up to #1?
Yes - I do think NYG is in that conversation
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In comment 16430390 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16430384 Go Terps said:
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My preference is scenario 1 but if they can't trade up (I agree their target is probably Maye) do you think they'd be interested in the Nix/Penix tier?
I don't see that being the plan. Just creates more gray area.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
The Nix/Penix tier imv isn't good enough to draft as a replacement for Jones. YMMV, and therein lies the grey area, if I'm reading Sy correctly. But, if no QB in round 1 I'm more likely looking at CB or DL in round two (if they go WR at #6).
One of the best QB evaluators out there Chris Simms has Bo Nix as QB3. He threw well at the combine and his pro day. He had an amazing year. He has the Parcel's experience matters for QBs coming out with a record 61 games. He has size, speed, nice release, throws off platform, great accuracy, went through adversity and still continued to improve, he isn't bad in any one area, he has a Plus arm strength at 58 MPH, etc.... I am warming up to him more and more.
Maye has been talked about for awhile - yes. Daniels - not so much.
Ourlads had a late one-early 2 last year if he was going to come out and I don't think anyone else looked at him as better than round 3/4
It is always a shot in the dark but advanced scouting is a thing. If NYG likes the look of the future crop - that route looks better.
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In comment 16430384 Go Terps said:
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My preference is scenario 1 but if they can't trade up (I agree their target is probably Maye) do you think they'd be interested in the Nix/Penix tier?
I don't see that being the plan. Just creates more gray area.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
Nix/Penix appear to be another Daniel Jones caliber prospect at best.
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If they're truly done with Jones I think they've got to find a way to come out of round 1 with a QB. Picking 6th in a 4 QB draft (I still think Penix is going to be a steal and Nix can play but disregarding that) is probably going to be better odds than they get next year.
I already think this is probably a much better team with the investments on OL/DL and the Jones/Barkley nightmare in the rearview mirror. I don't think the Giants are going to be picking this high again next year.
Not to miller this thread, but I'm curious. You had concerns about Nix and his arm at the combine being able to make all the throws. Do you think he could still be worth a first round pick?
Yeah, maybe. I wouldn't be upset if the Giants picked him, Even at 6. I think too much is made of where in the first round someone is picked. If the Giants like him, I'm fine with it. To me this is a Daniels/Penix draft, so I'm not seeing it the way most are anyway.
But assuming it's Williams/Maye/Daniels/McCarthy in the generally accepted top tier, I'm hoping the Giants have the draft with one of them.
Plus, even if that's not the case, you are risking the injury guarantee by playing him as soon as he is able.
I will dive down this hole when my QB reports are done...sorry to kick that can down the road. But you're on the right road.
2. Trade to 4 or 5. Do not trade 2025 #1 as it could be a very high pick.
3. Stay at 6 and pick #4 QB if one falls.
4. Stay at 6 and pick Odunze, Alt
5. Slight trade for extra Day two picks and possibly 2025 #1 depending on how far down we trade (7 to 15). BPA for us would likely be the number 2 or 3 OT, the number 1,2, or 3 defensive player, Bower, #5 QB (Nix, Pennix).
I like 4 or 5.
No way Bo Nix makes it past 12 for Denver. He is the perfect Payton QB.
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In comment 16430414 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16430390 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16430384 Go Terps said:
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My preference is scenario 1 but if they can't trade up (I agree their target is probably Maye) do you think they'd be interested in the Nix/Penix tier?
I don't see that being the plan. Just creates more gray area.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
The Nix/Penix tier imv isn't good enough to draft as a replacement for Jones. YMMV, and therein lies the grey area, if I'm reading Sy correctly. But, if no QB in round 1 I'm more likely looking at CB or DL in round two (if they go WR at #6).
One of the best QB evaluators out there Chris Simms has Bo Nix as QB3. He threw well at the combine and his pro day. He had an amazing year. He has the Parcel's experience matters for QBs coming out with a record 61 games. He has size, speed, nice release, throws off platform, great accuracy, went through adversity and still continued to improve, he isn't bad in any one area, he has a Plus arm strength at 58 MPH, etc.... I am warming up to him more and more.
I like Nix, saw most every Oregon game that was on TV in the NY area the past 20 years. But, I'm not hitching my wagon to him if my goal is SB wins I don't see Brees in him as many seem to.
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In comment 16430466 JonC said:
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In comment 16430414 bw in dc said:
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In comment 16430390 Sy'56 said:
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In comment 16430384 Go Terps said:
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My preference is scenario 1 but if they can't trade up (I agree their target is probably Maye) do you think they'd be interested in the Nix/Penix tier?
I don't see that being the plan. Just creates more gray area.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
The Nix/Penix tier imv isn't good enough to draft as a replacement for Jones. YMMV, and therein lies the grey area, if I'm reading Sy correctly. But, if no QB in round 1 I'm more likely looking at CB or DL in round two (if they go WR at #6).
One of the best QB evaluators out there Chris Simms has Bo Nix as QB3. He threw well at the combine and his pro day. He had an amazing year. He has the Parcel's experience matters for QBs coming out with a record 61 games. He has size, speed, nice release, throws off platform, great accuracy, went through adversity and still continued to improve, he isn't bad in any one area, he has a Plus arm strength at 58 MPH, etc.... I am warming up to him more and more.
I like Nix, saw most every Oregon game that was on TV in the NY area the past 20 years. But, I'm not hitching my wagon to him if my goal is SB wins I don't see Brees in him as many seem to.
Penix has the injury past and he'll be 24 before the start of the season, Bo Nix will also be 24 before the start of the season. Absolutely no way I consider them at 6.
What's the gray area? The risk of not being able to get either or less talented/increased bust factor (vis-a-vis the top 3-4)?
Nix/Penix appear to be another Daniel Jones caliber prospect at best.
"At best"?
Wow - didn't quite expect that. I'm not head over heels for either as well, but I see attributes more favorable than what Jones brings.
If they feel like none of these guys are potential franchise QBs or there’s no trade up opportunity, I’m perfectly fine with them taking a WR. I’d be surprised if they valued a defensive player above the WRs available.
I guess in order right now, I am 1 2 3 if I were to rank the choices.
I think Jones career is going to end in 2024.
I think you could win with him if healthy.
Healthy is not is the cards.
I like Nix, saw most every Oregon game that was on TV in the NY area the past 20 years. But, I'm not hitching my wagon to him if my goal is SB wins I don't see Brees in him as many seem to.
I live on the west coast and I have seen more Bo Nix than I wanted too as a Cal fan. He is much better than you think. Again Chris Simms who is one of the best QB evauls has Bo Nix at QB3. Go watch Simms on Bo Nix, then watch Bo Nix again and you see a lot of what he is saying. Again I have Bo Nix QB5, but I trust Simms and watching Nix again without rooting against Oregon I see a damn good QB.
My big fear is the 2024 Carolina situation happening all over again, where we trade our 2025 1st, and it ends up being a top 5 pick (or like Carolina, 1OA). Even with a new QB at the helm (taken with our 1st pick- be it 6OA or moved up), this is a still a talent deficient team that is destined to be picking in the top 10 again next year.
If one of the Giants' top graded QB's are gone by 6, take the alpha WR and punt QB to next year. The 2025 1st round pick is very likely to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick, and the alpha WR gets seasoned for a year.
Whatever you do, DO NOT TRADE the 2025 1st round pick UNLESS you use it to move up to the #1, #2 pick, or can guarantee your TOP RATED QB this year.
If one of the Giants' top graded QB's are gone by 6, take the alpha WR and punt QB to next year. The 2025 1st round pick is very likely to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick, and the alpha WR gets seasoned for a year.
Whatever you do, DO NOT TRADE the 2025 1st round pick UNLESS you use it to move up to the #1, #2 pick, or can guarantee your TOP RATED QB this year.
In other words do not trade the 2025 1st round pick for sloppy seconds due to panic.
This year and next year's 1st round pick should be used on a blue chip QB and blue chip WR... These two will be paired at the hip for years to come. It's important to get it right and ensure the talent is elite and not just "okay".
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In comment 16430486 Amtoft said:
I like Nix, saw most every Oregon game that was on TV in the NY area the past 20 years. But, I'm not hitching my wagon to him if my goal is SB wins I don't see Brees in him as many seem to.
I live on the west coast and I have seen more Bo Nix than I wanted too as a Cal fan. He is much better than you think. Again Chris Simms who is one of the best QB evauls has Bo Nix at QB3. Go watch Simms on Bo Nix, then watch Bo Nix again and you see a lot of what he is saying. Again I have Bo Nix QB5, but I trust Simms and watching Nix again without rooting against Oregon I see a damn good QB.
All good, I'm not coming up to QB3 on Nix with Simms.
Never go into a draft with the mindset of picking one position, and ignoring all others. You've got to be flexible.
Schoen/Daboll need to be open and honest with Mara now about their plans. If they think they blew it with DJ, say so, and discuss the plan to move forward, even if that means suffering with DJ for another year. Don't sell unrealistic expectations. W-L mean less than showing actual improvement of the whole team. Improving the team may mean non-QB. Take a player who is likely to be good, not a meh QB just to take one, and that includes all the rounds.
If moving up to get a guy you want is feasible, go for it. If not, read the board when your turn comes, and make your pick. Maybe luck will be with us and a QB we want is available. Don't pick a QB from a lower tier over a top tier player.
Unlike most vocal others, I don't think we're desperate for a QB. Want one. Need an upgrade. but not so desperate we should take whatever ugly skank is available at closing time.
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In comment 16430511 JonC said:
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In comment 16430486 Amtoft said:
I like Nix, saw most every Oregon game that was on TV in the NY area the past 20 years. But, I'm not hitching my wagon to him if my goal is SB wins I don't see Brees in him as many seem to.
I live on the west coast and I have seen more Bo Nix than I wanted too as a Cal fan. He is much better than you think. Again Chris Simms who is one of the best QB evauls has Bo Nix at QB3. Go watch Simms on Bo Nix, then watch Bo Nix again and you see a lot of what he is saying. Again I have Bo Nix QB5, but I trust Simms and watching Nix again without rooting against Oregon I see a damn good QB.
All good, I'm not coming up to QB3 on Nix with Simms.
No way you move up for Nix.. That is stupid.
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But I haven’t seen an answer, so I’m going to ask again. Related to number 2, I keep seeing people refer to next year’s QB class as a weak class. Caleb Williams obviously won the Heisman and was a top prospect coming into this past college season. What about the other top 2/3 guys? If we had been discussing this a year ago, would people have been salivating over Daniels or Maye?
Maye has been talked about for awhile - yes. Daniels - not so much.
Ourlads had a late one-early 2 last year if he was going to come out and I don't think anyone else looked at him as better than round 3/4
It is always a shot in the dark but advanced scouting is a thing. If NYG likes the look of the future crop - that route looks better.
Thanks for the response Sy, I appreciate it.
If not, stand pat at 6 and draft Odunze.