Nothing earth shattering here - and I know I am not coming up with new thoughts. This is simply to help me (maybe you?) put into words where this franchise is going with this draft class and offseason overall.
Route 1:
*All in on the next QB*
Even though they lost a valuable piece of currency to trade up from #6 - they have the ammo to get up to number three. #6, the 2025 first, and another day 2 pick (this year or next) should get it done. No question. I feel confident this can be done. because ATL is the only realistic team within striking distance of getting up that high. LV? MIN? DEN? Getting to #3 from outside of top ten is almost unheard of.
If they have the franchise QB grade on three guys - they can sit back and just wait to see who escapes the top 2. If they only have that outlook on 1-2 guys - that is where this gets tricky. On the flip side - if they have similar grades on 4 guys - the cost for moving to 4 (or 5) won't cost as much. I have to think they would have a preference, however.
Based on past profiles (which is not the end all) - I think FO would lean toward Maye. He has issues that need to be fixed - but they have the season-plus to fix and develop.
_____
Route 2:
*Punt on QB. Continue to build this offense with 2025 in mind.*
NYG will wait to address long term QB in 2025. They will have some spending flexibility if a Dak Prescott shakes free or they could be the top destination for whatever veteran comes available. And yes - there will be some prime draft candidates in next year's crop.
But without knowing where you'll be sitting slot wise - this seems like a stretch. This philosophy centers around building the nucleus so well that it almost won't matter who is under center as long as the guy is somewhat capable. See Detroit and Jared Goff. See Los Angeles and Matthew Stafford.
Taking this route allows NYG to go after a true #1 WR prospect or a high-end OT prospect. Based on numbers alone - they will have one or both of those options available at #6. You develop them in year one and expect them to be REAL DUDES in year two.
The last variable here is shopping #6 to teams looking for a QB. NO, DEN, MIN...if NYG can load up on extra 2025 draft picks - it widens the possibility of getting whatever QB they want in next year's draft in addition to extra capital.
_____
Route 3:
*Take the defensive player you want*
I do not see any scenario where a defensive player comes off the board before #6. One could make the argument we do not see one in the top 10. If NYG has a high enough grade on any of them (any position) - you get that final blue chip piece.
I know, offense offense offense. NYG is so far away from contenders on that side of the ball. Remember NYG fans - you can never have enough pass rushers. Ever. NYG could have whichever one they want at #6, possibly even after a slight trade down (#10 if NYJ needs an OT1?)
The move for Brian Burns is encouraging to me. Why? I said this last year - this team has zero identity. None whatsoever. They haven't had one for years. We thought it would be Odell + Barkley...explosive plays left and right. We thought it could be ground and pound once the former was traded to Cleveland. We thought it could be an efficient offense after year one of Daboll.
Fail, fail, fail. When others zig - you need to zag. Everyone (almost) in the NFL is pursuing explosive plays and scoring more points. Why not try to build an elite defense? There are pieces in place for this to happen - but there is a need for more weaponry. You get another pass rusher in here and he hits? Now NYG can say they have something nobody else has.
And, of course - you find the QB in 2025.
What do we think? I know I have a preference on which direction I want - but I do think a case can be made for any of the three.
Remember - open minds.
Plan to be competitive in 2025, strong in '26, and excellent from '27-'30.
The list is long of teams putting out a young QB with no support and him failing
If Maye drops and you want to get him at 6 that is different. I am not trading draft assets to move up
It has been far to long since they've scared teams with defensive players.
Dex is there, but he needs a Keith Hamilton. KT with the addition of BB could be a solid rush, but one more pipe hitting player could usher in a new era of fear across the league.
The question is, as you stated, no concensus top 10 guy, so trade down and to pick up the impact guy?
They are picking 6th in a draft with four generally accepted prospects. It is rare to get odds that good. If they draft a QB what are they missing out on? Odunze or Nabers? So what? College football is cranking out WRs.
Unless of course Vrabel/BB is waiting to take over after next year.
if a QB they like is there....pull the trigger.
If a BPA they love is there....pull the trigger (I assume WR)
If they get blown with a trade down.....pull trigger....add chips to go all in next year!
Not being a big gambler myself, option 2 is the way I lean today. Just not sure whether I make the WR pick at 6 or do the trade down. Guess it depends on the bounty.
A QB with a bad OL, OK RB, questionable TE and bottom 5 WR scares nobody unless you are Mahomes
Again, if they trade up and give up next years 1 and 2 you are looking at 2026 to potentially grab a 1 at WR
Grab a QB at 6, fine, don’t trade up
Quote:
In comment 16430486 Amtoft said:
I like Nix, saw most every Oregon game that was on TV in the NY area the past 20 years. But, I'm not hitching my wagon to him if my goal is SB wins I don't see Brees in him as many seem to.
I live on the west coast and I have seen more Bo Nix than I wanted too as a Cal fan. He is much better than you think. Again Chris Simms who is one of the best QB evauls has Bo Nix at QB3. Go watch Simms on Bo Nix, then watch Bo Nix again and you see a lot of what he is saying. Again I have Bo Nix QB5, but I trust Simms and watching Nix again without rooting against Oregon I see a damn good QB.
Quote:
think they can sit still and get a QB at 6. For Minny at pick 11 to move up to 5 is going to cost a lot and will they do that for QB4? Not sure that will be the case. If not we can take the top WR available. We can trade down and take a Nix or Penix. We can trade down twice and get Newton to play DT next to Lawerence. You can draft a QB in round 2 or 3. They can take flyer on Joe Milton to see if Dabs could develop him. I mean there is a lot we can do and who knows what we will do. I think we move to pick 5 for a 4th rounder and take our QB though.
What if the Vikings trade Justin Jefferson to the Cardinals in a trade for #4? Then LA has a chance at MHjr at #5.
This doesn’t really compute. Why would AZ pay big bucks to JJ when they have MHJ on a rookie deal for five years? Never happening.
Will AZ even be willing to consider passing on MH Jr? So many unknowables.
Me. Stay at 6. Take the best guy or a QB if you think JJ or Pennix if they can be the guy take them. Let them sit a year since you fucked up and have to pay Jones anyway. But I just don't believe anymore that you can tell which Qb is truely that next franchise guy.
Trevor Lawrence was a much better prospect than any of these guys in his sleep. Half of this site thinks he's meh. Just think you need a better team and hope you somehow you find an above average Qb. And if Schoen wants to trade 5 picks for a Qb. Great. But the easy thing to do is post here. Zero consequences. Same people screaming for a "franchise" Qb wanted Darnold and Rosen. And not many were demanding Josh Allen So. Yeah.
If one of the Giants' top graded QB's are gone by 6, take the alpha WR and punt QB to next year. The 2025 1st round pick is very likely to be a top 10 or even top 5 pick, and the alpha WR gets seasoned for a year.
Whatever you do, DO NOT TRADE the 2025 1st round pick UNLESS you use it to move up to the #1, #2 pick, or can guarantee your TOP RATED QB this year.
What the hell good does a top 10 pick get us next year? We have 6 now and it’s a deep QB draft and we still may get shut out of the prospects Schoen likes.
Poorly thought out.
As far as Bo Nix goes I don't have the skill set to make an educated prediction whether his ceiling is a top 10 NFL QB or a career backup. I do know it's really hard to evaluate how college QBs will translate in the NFL because the minor league competition level, the types of throws and pre and post snap responsibilities are dramatically more challenging in the NFL. GMs who are paid millions of dollars to make those evaluations bat well under .300 from what I can see.
Here are the QBs drafted in the top 11 in the past 6 drafts:
2018
#1 Mayfield - average starter
#3 Darnold - bottom 10 starter or backup
#7 Allen - top 5 tier QB
#10 Rosen - out of the NFL
2019
#1 Murray - average starter
#6 Jones - bottom 10 starter or backup
2020
#1 Burrow - top 5 tier QB
#5 Tagovailoa - average starter
#6 Herbert - top 10 tier QB
2021
#1 Lawrence - top 15 tier QB
#2 Wilson - bottom 10 starter or backup
#3 Lance - bottom 10 starter or backup
#11* Fields - bottom 10 starter or backup *Giants pick
2022
No QBs taken in the top 11
2023 (too early to tell I think, but based on rookie years)
#1 Young - His team, front office and owner are so bad that he may fail
#2 Stroud - top 10 tier in a remarkable rookie season. Let's see year 2
#4 Richardson - played better than expected until he got hurt. Has to protect himself better.
16 QBs taken top 11 since 2018.
2 - top 5 QBs Allen and Burrow
2 - top 10 QBs counting Stroud and Herbert
1 - top 15 Lawrence (as he gets more experience he could move up to top 10)
3 - average starters Mayfield, Murray and Tua
6 - bottom 10 starter/backup or out of the league
2 - Too soon to tell Young and Richardson
11 QBs taken top 5. Burrow and Stroud (it's too early to really tell on Stroud) are the only 2 of the 11 that you could call "franchise" QBs.
I think if a QB is picked top 10, certainly top 5 the expectation of the team that drafts him is that he will develop into a top 10 NFL QB. I consider 4 out of the 16 QBs drafted top 11 since 2018 to be top 10 NFL QBs and one of them has only played his rookie year. That's a .250 batting average giving Stroud the benefit of the doubt that he doesn't regress. If he does and it's 3 out 16 that's a .188 average.
Picking a QB top 10 in the draft is not for a GM who is faint of heart. More than likely if you end up with a bottom 10 stater/backup you get fired. But I think teams need a top 10 NFL QB to be serious Super Bowl contenders. I think the Giants GM and HC think so too.
This, and I for one would take the best WR left.
1. 2024 probably looks like 2023 in that the Giants probably get starts from all 3 quarterbacks
2. Reasonable expectation is 5-8 wins
3. After 2024 season Jones is cut, Lock is FA, DeVito is ERFA
4. Top of the FA QB market is Prescott, Goff...maybe Tua?
5. Giants pick anywhere from 5-12ish in a draft where the only first round guys are Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe.
Is that a more fertile landscape to add the next starting QB than the current one?
They are picking 6th in a draft with four generally accepted prospects. It is rare to get odds that good. If they draft a QB what are they missing out on? Odunze or Nabers? So what? College football is cranking out WRs.
Seems so short-sighted to look at it like that. If we apply your same logic to reaching for a QB in 2019, it didn't hurt us I guess to miss out on a bonafide stud in Josh Allen to throw a dart at a QB then. Is it really that easy to find a stud #1 WR that missing out on one possibly in Harrison/Nabers/Odunze is something to brush off so lightly?
More importantly the Jones pick also meant we weren't thinking about drafting a QB the next year when we should've been ready to jump on Herbert/Tua.
If you don't think it's the right guy, there's a lot to lose here and I don't think it's nearly as obvious as you make it out to be to draft QB no matter what.
Draft a WR and Jones is healthy and plays well as offense OL is better and legit WR makes difference
You can do this 100 times and spin however you want
The GM and coach have seen this QB play 22 games with a playoff win. Is the 5 1/2 games in 2023, most w/o AT, Barkley and WanDale enough to suddenly trade all sorts of assets for another question mark. I don’t see it that way
Williams is the closest to the sure thing but as mentioned Lawrence was viewed as the best QB prospect since Luck and people here would move on from him
I am not throwing away assets to chase a QB
MHJ is the only guy I would trade UP for.
How about going BPA at 6?
Even a CB (Terrion Arnold) paired up with Banks....
Lock down CBs in the modern NFL would be awesome
Quote:
What is sure is that the Giants don't currently have a viable starting QB.
They are picking 6th in a draft with four generally accepted prospects. It is rare to get odds that good. If they draft a QB what are they missing out on? Odunze or Nabers? So what? College football is cranking out WRs.
Seems so short-sighted to look at it like that. If we apply your same logic to reaching for a QB in 2019, it didn't hurt us I guess to miss out on a bonafide stud in Josh Allen to throw a dart at a QB then. Is it really that easy to find a stud #1 WR that missing out on one possibly in Harrison/Nabers/Odunze is something to brush off so lightly?
More importantly the Jones pick also meant we weren't thinking about drafting a QB the next year when we should've been ready to jump on Herbert/Tua.
If you don't think it's the right guy, there's a lot to lose here and I don't think it's nearly as obvious as you make it out to be to draft QB no matter what.
Who's reaching for a QB? I'm talking about one of Williams, Maye, Daniels, or McCarthy.
Quote:
In comment 16430610 Go Terps said:
Quote:
What is sure is that the Giants don't currently have a viable starting QB.
They are picking 6th in a draft with four generally accepted prospects. It is rare to get odds that good. If they draft a QB what are they missing out on? Odunze or Nabers? So what? College football is cranking out WRs.
Seems so short-sighted to look at it like that. If we apply your same logic to reaching for a QB in 2019, it didn't hurt us I guess to miss out on a bonafide stud in Josh Allen to throw a dart at a QB then. Is it really that easy to find a stud #1 WR that missing out on one possibly in Harrison/Nabers/Odunze is something to brush off so lightly?
More importantly the Jones pick also meant we weren't thinking about drafting a QB the next year when we should've been ready to jump on Herbert/Tua.
If you don't think it's the right guy, there's a lot to lose here and I don't think it's nearly as obvious as you make it out to be to draft QB no matter what.
Who's reaching for a QB? I'm talking about one of Williams, Maye, Daniels, or McCarthy.
What if those 4 are gone?
In the situation we are in, it would take balls of steel to sit pat at #6 and hope a franchise QB drops to us. I couldn't do it, I would explore every avenue to make it happen.
But it's been a long time since we rock 'n rolled.
Agree.
Quote:
Given that, the Giants are beat placed to trade up to either of those slots. There is no reason they can't do that; it is not unrealistic at all.
Agree.
Could be they don't like the QB that's there. Hardly impossible.
My concern is if Arizona wants MHJr they will want more than chart value because Los Angeles could trade with someone who wants him
5. Giants pick anywhere from 5-12ish in a draft where the only first round guys are Carson Beck and Jalen Milroe.
Right now, the only bona fide first-round QB for 2025 is probably Shadeur Sanders. Which makes your point even more bearish.
Ewers, Beck, Milroe, Ward, Leonard, etc are all day two or less right now.
Why do you believe there will be more and better prospects next year, and why do you believe the Giants will be picking at the top of the draft?
Did the "Pass on a QB and fill out the roster" really leave the Giants still picking at 6 or higher? If so, that plan may be very flawed.
Fortune favors the bold.
Fortune favors the bold.
+1
Why do you believe there will be more and better prospects next year, and why do you believe the Giants will be picking at the top of the draft?
Did the "Pass on a QB and fill out the roster" really leave the Giants still picking at 6 or higher? If so, that plan may be very flawed.
The "it's a crapshoot" mentality requires one believe all drafts are equal. In fact it almost necessitates one believe all rounds are equal
Which is why it's bunk
I think Milton has a tremendous arm
Why do you believe there will be more and better prospects next year, and why do you believe the Giants will be picking at the top of the draft?
Did the "Pass on a QB and fill out the roster" really leave the Giants still picking at 6 or higher? If so, that plan may be very flawed.
It seems to be a recurring theme on here that all of MHJ, Odunze and Nabers are all going to be superstars but the QBs are too much of a risk to take a chance.
One or more of the WRs could be Charles Rogers or Darrius Hayward Bey
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
This drafts top WRs have a fair claim to being a better group than even Chase/Devonta/Waddle, if the worst case scenario is adding a WR on that level and then maybe also getting a dart throw at Nix or Penix that's not so bad (even if they need to trade up to the back end of round 1 and overdraft slightly to do it). Their 2025 first and #45 should be able to get them pretty high up back into the first round if that's what they want to do.
And it makes me wonder
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
This drafts top WRs have a fair claim to being a better group than even Chase/Devonta/Waddle, if the worst case scenario is adding a WR on that level and then maybe also getting a dart throw at Nix or Penix that's not so bad (even if they need to trade up to the back end of round 1 and overdraft slightly to do it). Their 2025 first and #45 should be able to get them pretty high up back into the first round if that's what they want to do.
I wouldn't trade a 2025 first for Nix or Penix.
I also would not be opposed or upset if they cannot move up and the QB they want is not there at #6 and they trade out of #6 to the 10-12 slot for an additional 2nd and 3rd round pick - whatever the price is. Then load up with as many pieces as possible.
I also wouldn't mind a flyer on Nix(if a trade back - not at 6). Taylor showed that a QB with even the slightest ability to read a defense could move the ball. Nix is a lot better than Taylor IMHO.
Six seasons. One playoff game.
Beckham and Barkley together in 2018 for Saquon's brilliant rookie season. Record 5-11.
The only elite WR for Parcell's and Coughlin's two apiece Super Bowl seasons was Plax. All the others were out of football two or three years later.
Minnesota could put Jefferson on the table with their first for all we know.
I think the NYG will get a shot at QB4, but it is not impossible they don't.
Agreed. If we really want to pivot away from Jones in a big way, we need to buy the Pats #3 spot.
It's got to be a Vito Corleone move where we make them an offer they can't refuse. May have to be willing to toss in KT to really sweeten the deal.
Quote:
.
My concern is if Arizona wants MHJr they will want more than chart value because Los Angeles could trade with someone who wants him
This for the morons who just don't get it. AZ is going to want a haul to move to 6. All this crab about Nabors being close to him is BS. MH Jr s the safest and most likely best player period. AZ needs him as Murray is about as average a Qb as there is despite all his never ending hype by some. And the Chargers can probably turn that 5th pick into a lot. Mitch Trubisky went 1st. Some team Amy be wiling to mortgage a lot to get JJ Daniels or Maye if he falls somehow.
The desire to be rid of Jones makes sense on and emotional level. But rationally you stay at 6 IMO
Draft a WR and Jones is healthy and plays well as offense OL is better and legit WR makes difference
You can do this 100 times and spin however you want
The GM and coach have seen this QB play 22 games with a playoff win. Is the 5 1/2 games in 2023, most w/o AT, Barkley and WanDale enough to suddenly trade all sorts of assets for another question mark. I don’t see it that way
Williams is the closest to the sure thing but as mentioned Lawrence was viewed as the best QB prospect since Luck and people here would move on from him
I am not throwing away assets to chase a QB
What exactly are you expecting from the '24 season? We should all resign ourselves to another mediocre season and that's ok because this draft will at least get us back on track. What were the first few seasons of Eli like? They were ready to run TC out of town. If we go QB then you need to lower your expectations for '24.
As far as Bo Nix goes I don't have the skill set to make an educated prediction whether his ceiling is a top 10 NFL QB or a career backup. I do know it's really hard to evaluate how college QBs will translate in the NFL because the minor league competition level, the types of throws and pre and post snap responsibilities are dramatically more challenging in the NFL. GMs who are paid millions of dollars to make those evaluations bat well under .300 from what I can see.
Here are the QBs drafted in the top 11 in the past 6 drafts:
2018
#1 Mayfield - average starter
#3 Darnold - bottom 10 starter or backup
#7 Allen - top 5 tier QB
#10 Rosen - out of the NFL
2019
#1 Murray - average starter
#6 Jones - bottom 10 starter or backup
2020
#1 Burrow - top 5 tier QB
#5 Tagovailoa - average starter
#6 Herbert - top 10 tier QB
2021
#1 Lawrence - top 15 tier QB
#2 Wilson - bottom 10 starter or backup
#3 Lance - bottom 10 starter or backup
#11* Fields - bottom 10 starter or backup *Giants pick
2022
No QBs taken in the top 11
2023 (too early to tell I think, but based on rookie years)
#1 Young - His team, front office and owner are so bad that he may fail
#2 Stroud - top 10 tier in a remarkable rookie season. Let's see year 2
#4 Richardson - played better than expected until he got hurt. Has to protect himself better.
16 QBs taken top 11 since 2018.
2 - top 5 QBs Allen and Burrow
2 - top 10 QBs counting Stroud and Herbert
1 - top 15 Lawrence (as he gets more experience he could move up to top 10)
3 - average starters Mayfield, Murray and Tua
6 - bottom 10 starter/backup or out of the league
2 - Too soon to tell Young and Richardson
11 QBs taken top 5. Burrow and Stroud (it's too early to really tell on Stroud) are the only 2 of the 11 that you could call "franchise" QBs.
I think if a QB is picked top 10, certainly top 5 the expectation of the team that drafts him is that he will develop into a top 10 NFL QB. I consider 4 out of the 16 QBs drafted top 11 since 2018 to be top 10 NFL QBs and one of them has only played his rookie year. That's a .250 batting average giving Stroud the benefit of the doubt that he doesn't regress. If he does and it's 3 out 16 that's a .188 average.
Picking a QB top 10 in the draft is not for a GM who is faint of heart. More than likely if you end up with a bottom 10 stater/backup you get fired. But I think teams need a top 10 NFL QB to be serious Super Bowl contenders. I think the Giants GM and HC think so too.
Excellent post.