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Spinning the Draft Right Now (long)

gidiefor : Mod : 3/17/2024 10:18 am
In nearly every season prior to the Joe Schoen regime, I think it was really possible to decipher what the Front Office had planned in the draft through either leaks and/or innuendo.

This season, the lying season, the misinformation from the FO has been coming in waves:

Wave one – the Giants PR department put out a full frontal defending and propping up Daniel Jones from numerous sources including Paul Schwartz, Tiki Barber, the usual suspects and others…

Wave two – the Giants “are done with Daniel Jones,” starting with Garafolo, who gave it a 75% chance, that the NYGs were going QB in round one of the draft, to Eisen stating emphatically that the Giants were done with Daniel Jones

Then looking at the Draft logically at this point :

At 1 Chicago is needs to draft QB as they just traded away their franchise QB

At 2 Washing traded away Sam Howell and also needs to draft a QB

At 3 the Patriots traded away Mac Jones and don’t really have a QB – as it’s hard to believe that Jacoby Brissett is the answer, they must be going QB

At 4 the Cardinals look like a trading candidate for a QB hungry team if you believe there are 4 viable top 10 QBs, or they are a possible home for Marvin Harrison Jr

At 5 the Chargers are also a candidate for a QB hungry team if you believe there are 4 viable top 10 QBs and Arizona won’t entice a trade hungry team and they are going with Herbert – which also looks likely

At 6 Here we have the Giants, who have already traded away draft capital to land Burns (including their top 2nd round pick) to beef up their defense and Lock to shore up the backup QB position, and signaled both that they want to keep Jones and that they are done with him. The top three picks are most likely going QB, and trading for those slots seems unlikely in my estimation. Trading up to 4 or 5 seems doable, the question is are there 4 draft worthy QBs to leave one at 4 (in my estimation there isn’t and personally I don’t like three of the “top 3 Qbs” and probably one of those three will be drafted at the 4 or 5 slot especially given that both Minnesota and Denver don’t have a QB. This will drive the cost of drafting the 4th QB up and create a higher risk drafting at that spot. It's kind of an all or nothing scenario: win big with the outlier pick costing a significant amount of draft capital; lose big by spending the needed draft capital and the pick is more likely a dud.)

I am somewhat reminded of the 2018 draft where there were 4 highly touted QBs: Mayfield, Darnold, Allen and Rosen; who look like, to me, in order: Williams, Maye, Daniels and McCarthy. Instead of the Barkley “sure thing,” you have the Marvin Harrison "sure thing" who is likely going at 4 or 5.

So where does this leave the Giants?

The FO (kudos to them for confusing everyone) is going to:

a) trade up for the #4 QB,
b) wait for the #4 QB to fall into their lap,
c) take another position either O lineman, WR or ER
d) trade down slightly and restock the premium of second round pick and possibly more expanding the choices to O lineman, WR, ER and CB – possibly QB like Nix/Penix

Frankly, I think an argument could be made for every one of the positions above, so I give the FO massive credit for the misinformation that is spinning the discussions we are having.

I really hope our brain trust gets this one right. All due respect for those of you who think trading up for a QB is a must, I don’t. I really don't want the FO to get into a bidding war that uses up precious premium picks in 24 and 25 to trade up for a Josh Rosen, Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield. It will set the Giants back for more of the same agony we’ve been having for every year but two of the last ten. They have to get this right. (I guess that is the case every year, but I see it as being particularly acute.)

I like a lot of what they’ve done so far in FA bringing in new linemen, blocking TE’s and Burns. But to my view, the table and ensuing odds/risk is set for them to pass on QB this year, and take option c or d. My personal preference is to land another plus Defensive player, along with a plus Offensive player like they did two years ago at 5 and 7. They went defense first last year with Banks in round 1, which I liked a lot. They went defense first in year 1 with Kayvon. Let's continue to do this and make a defensive power house. I think the Giants can contend even with a Daniel Jones if their defense is a power house. In any event their are certainly teams out there that have proven that is a good formula: see Detroit, San Francisco, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Tennessee

This team with Jones at the helm is helped more by strong defense than many of you think; and Dabol has shown he can accomplish a lot with a dink and dunk style opportunistic offense. Jones ran that successfully in year one of Dabol/Kafka, and Lock can more than likely run that type of offense too. Bringing in WR Isaiah McKenzie and RB Devin Singletary, and beefing up the Oline/blocking TE corps sure points to that to me. Even if they do draft a QB, the odds say they will be operating this way anyway, so it makes more sense to me odds and value wise to pick a developmental QB like Nix/Pennix/McCarthy in round two or even better round three or later.
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Nice post gidie  
bLiTz 2k : 3/17/2024 10:28 am : link
My thoughts are simple - what is Schoen's grade on JJ McCarthy?

Obviously none of us know, but despite fan pressure and what analysts think of the Giants current QB room, nothing else truly matters.

If they truly see him as a long term plus starter in the NFL, all bets are off. You do what you can to take him.

If he is however rated in the 70s and you have 3 blue chip prospects in the 80s (just using an example), then it doesn't make sense to me to take him because the current QB situation sucks.

It's not ideal, but there are a ton of routes to go at the position after this year anyway. Look at Baker Mayfield in Tampa right now, Geno Smith in Seattle, etc.

New options can become available that can perform well if the roster is in a healthy spot. Would we prefer a home grown cost controlled signal caller that is a winner instead? Absolutely, but if it's not in the cards this year I think the prudent move is to improve this team at every premier position until you get the QB.

It sucks, but that's the boat they are in.
I hope you are right  
kelsto811 : 3/17/2024 10:28 am : link
I'd give credit for a ploy to try and get a premium position player to fall...but if 4 QBs are taken before the Giants, will we ever know if that was the goal..idk
GMs and HCs  
Sammo85 : 3/17/2024 10:29 am : link
are not in the business of being just ok enough and building up a better roster for their successors.
Nice post Gidi,  
barens : 3/17/2024 10:30 am : link
sounds logical. Though I do put a heck of a lot more credence into what Garafalo says than Schwartz and Tiki, the latter whose opinion is no different than ours.

I think this past week changed a lot of things, with QB's being traded, all but guarantees 3 QB's will be taken with the to 3 picks without trades, and like Daniel Jeremiah said, 4 in the top 6 seems likely.

I'll be happy with whatever direction they choose, tho I think ER is not in the cards anymore. And given they didn't really address the WR position in FA, I do think the odds increase that that is in play.
Nice overview  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/17/2024 10:32 am : link
but these problems remain:

(1) Jones has only remained healthy one season in five.
(2) Jones is coming off two very serious injuries, including injuries that may affect the strength of his game - running.
(3) If Jones gets hurt again, that will have serious salary cap ramifications.
(4) Taylor and DeVito played just as well, if not better, than Jones did last year.
(5) How will Mara react to empty seats if Jones falters once again?

These are all very real issues.

On the other hand, if the QBs they like the best are gone, the logical thing would be to take the higher rated player at other positions.

Unfortunately, Schoen and Daboll screwed the pooch with the Jones contract. They've put themselves into a terrible spot.
Daniel Jones is not the answer  
LW_Giants : 3/17/2024 10:33 am : link
Putting aside his ineffectiveness, he's incredibly injury prone. Can't win with a QB that is constantly missing games.

If the Giants don't want to trade assets to move up and get a blue chip QB prospect then they should trade down and get 25 draft picks because we'll be back in this spot again next year looking for a franchise QB.
I am beginning to think that  
section125 : 3/17/2024 10:34 am : link
they will let the draft come to them. They may go for a trade back to recoup the 2nd that they gave up for Burns.

They absolutely need a new QB, but they also need playmakers, CBs, DT, another Edge.

I think Nix will go to Denver one way or another. I am not at all interested in Rattler before the 4th. Not even sure Penix makes it to mid 2nd round where the Giants have #47.

Perhaps that Viking trade for 11 and 23 (and another pick) can get them Penix and an impact defensive player.
Eric.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2024 10:34 am : link
I know it's extremely unlikely to happen, but the Giants really should consider sitting Jones because of the very real possibility he gets injured again & aforementioned salary cap nightmare that'd entail.
RE: Eric.  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/17/2024 10:36 am : link
In comment 16436094 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I know it's extremely unlikely to happen, but the Giants really should consider sitting Jones because of the very real possibility he gets injured again & aforementioned salary cap nightmare that'd entail.


Unlikely? I'm counting on it.

But if they want to risk that, it's easy to predict where this is heading.
in a nutshell  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/17/2024 10:37 am : link
Schoen fixed the cap situation in 2022, but screwed it up again in 2023. Now he's got to fix it again by dumping Jones ASAP.
RE: Eric.  
bLiTz 2k : 3/17/2024 10:38 am : link
In comment 16436094 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I know it's extremely unlikely to happen, but the Giants really should consider sitting Jones because of the very real possibility he gets injured again & aforementioned salary cap nightmare that'd entail.


Man, that injury clause is by far the worst thing I've seen in a Giants contract in my lifetime.

I could get over the AAV and the structure - they did what they thought was right, and obviously at the time loved the out after year 2 in case things went south...

But how the hell did they agree on this clause..that's a total deal breaker and they should have let him hit the market.

No use harping on it, but it's the one true blunder of this regime.
RE: Eric.  
FStubbs : 3/17/2024 10:40 am : link
In comment 16436094 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I know it's extremely unlikely to happen, but the Giants really should consider sitting Jones because of the very real possibility he gets injured again & aforementioned salary cap nightmare that'd entail.


The Giants SHOULD. But there's no way Mara would allow it. I think that we're seeing Mara is a little more hands off this offseason, but he'd probably draw the line there.
I agree with a lot of what you said  
Rudy5757 : 3/17/2024 10:40 am : link
I would go stud WR at 1. Having a good D is great, but we have no stud on O, that’s a sure fire way to loading the box like teams have been. I would go WR in the 1st, CB in the 2nd or DT whichever is better value. The best RB in round 3.
The Giants getting it wrong with the Daniel Jones contract  
nygiantfan : 3/17/2024 10:40 am : link
doesn't really have anything to do with us being at #6 and likely shut out of the top 3 QB prospects in this draft.

Staying at #6 and picking a QB they may not like anywhere near as much as the Top 3 or worse, burning draft capital to move up for that same guy is not maximizing our picks.

At that point Schoen should put one of elite (or near elite) WRs like Nabers or Odunze on the roster and move on. I would still try and grab a Tier 2 QB in the draft but let that sort itself out on Day Two.
No blue chip defensive players in the draft imv  
Rick in Dallas : 3/17/2024 10:41 am : link
Top of draft is offensive players heavy
QB,WR and OT.
Draft either Odunze or Nabers blue chip prospects at 6.
Besides Williams and Daniels not so sure about Maye or McCarthy.

RE: RE: Eric.  
bLiTz 2k : 3/17/2024 10:41 am : link
In comment 16436110 FStubbs said:
Quote:
In comment 16436094 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:


Quote:


I know it's extremely unlikely to happen, but the Giants really should consider sitting Jones because of the very real possibility he gets injured again & aforementioned salary cap nightmare that'd entail.



The Giants SHOULD. But there's no way Mara would allow it. I think that we're seeing Mara is a little more hands off this offseason, but he'd probably draw the line there.


Here we go with the Mara again...ffs
...  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 3/17/2024 10:41 am : link
Like given his injury history & that nightmare clause...I honestly wouldn't even put him on the field. I think a lot of us can see how this very well might unfold & it's a trainwreck of epic proportions.
RE: The Giants getting it wrong with the Daniel Jones contract  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/17/2024 10:43 am : link
In comment 16436112 nygiantfan said:
Quote:
doesn't really have anything to do with us being at #6 and likely shut out of the top 3 QB prospects in this draft.

Staying at #6 and picking a QB they may not like anywhere near as much as the Top 3 or worse, burning draft capital to move up for that same guy is not maximizing our picks.

At that point Schoen should put one of elite (or near elite) WRs like Nabers or Odunze on the roster and move on. I would still try and grab a Tier 2 QB in the draft but let that sort itself out on Day Two.


They may very well go this route, but there is no guarantee that the tier two QBs won't go before they pick again.

We have no QB unless Lock has a career revival.

Schoen and Daboll have to think about their jobs too. That's the reality.
We may have been asking ourselves  
Biteymax22 : 3/17/2024 10:46 am : link
The wrong question when it comes to QB.

Up until now everyone has been talking about who of the Top 4 QBs the Giants like, we may need to start asking who in that next group would be on their radar.

Do Schoen/Daboll have a high grade on one of the following day 2 targets:

Nix
Penix
Pratt
Rattler
Milton?

If so, would they have to trade back into RD1 for Nix or Penix? What is too early for Rattler/Pratt/Milton?

Its worth spending more time on the second wave of QBs than we have been.
RE: Nice overview  
gidiefor : Mod : 3/17/2024 10:49 am : link
In comment 16436088 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
but these problems remain:

(1) Jones has only remained healthy one season in five.

Yes this is true, but if Jones goes four and out this year - then the Giants will probably be in a premium draft position again

Quote:

(2) Jones is coming off two very serious injuries, including injuries that may affect the strength of his game - running.


Yes. This is true, but that didn't stop him, like ever. He is gawky when he runs too. I'm not saying Jones is the answer Eric, just looking at what the tea leaves say - and seeing trends/odds/value. We have a Tennessee crowd in the FO and also at DC now.

Quote:
(3) If Jones gets hurt again, that will have serious salary cap ramifications.


Yes this is also true, but I don't see this driving how the decisions are made. The Giants have basically put a fixed cost into Jones. Right now the odds are saying we have to see this through. ( as an aside, the salary cap can be manipulate and it will also be dramatically going up. Some estimates put it in the mid three hundred millions within the next five years)

Quote:
(4) Taylor and DeVito played just as well, if not better, than Jones did last year.


Yes, and so can Drew Lock in my estimation

Quote:
(5) How will Mara react to empty seats if Jones falters once again?


In my view - this only becomes and issue, when it becomes an issue. You make your plans. You try to execute them and you hope the hell you know you are doing.

Quote:
These are all very real issues.

On the other hand, if the QBs they like the best are gone, the logical thing would be to take the higher rated player at other positions.

Unfortunately, Schoen and Daboll screwed the pooch with the Jones contract. They've put themselves into a terrible spot.


This is a basic assessment after the facts that have occurred and I won't dispute this either. I am personally done with Jones, but the Jones contract favors a two year window. So I think, given all of the above, you roll the dice with what you have made, combined with the odds in front of you, and see what happens.
RE: We may have been asking ourselves  
barens : 3/17/2024 10:52 am : link
In comment 16436120 Biteymax22 said:
Quote:
The wrong question when it comes to QB.

Up until now everyone has been talking about who of the Top 4 QBs the Giants like, we may need to start asking who in that next group would be on their radar.

Do Schoen/Daboll have a high grade on one of the following day 2 targets:

Nix
Penix
Pratt
Rattler
Milton?

If so, would they have to trade back into RD1 for Nix or Penix? What is too early for Rattler/Pratt/Milton?

Its worth spending more time on the second wave of QBs than we have been.


Milton, not a chance, day 3 at best.

The player I'm most intrigued by is Jordan Travis, not sure if he will be healthy enough to have a pro day, but he's got a lot of Russell Wilson characteristics.
RE: RE: The Giants getting it wrong with the Daniel Jones contract  
nygiantfan : 3/17/2024 10:53 am : link
In comment 16436119 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
In comment 16436112 nygiantfan said:


Quote:


doesn't really have anything to do with us being at #6 and likely shut out of the top 3 QB prospects in this draft.

Staying at #6 and picking a QB they may not like anywhere near as much as the Top 3 or worse, burning draft capital to move up for that same guy is not maximizing our picks.

At that point Schoen should put one of elite (or near elite) WRs like Nabers or Odunze on the roster and move on. I would still try and grab a Tier 2 QB in the draft but let that sort itself out on Day Two.



They may very well go this route, but there is no guarantee that the tier two QBs won't go before they pick again.

We have no QB unless Lock has a career revival.

Schoen and Daboll have to think about their jobs too. That's the reality.


Logically speaking, if Schoen's Tier 2 QB evals warrant some guys having enough value then he should make a move to wherever he thinks that strike price should be (like end of Rd 1) and try and obtain one.

However, I don't think it makes sense to pass on an elite WR at top of Round 1 or giving up too much value (via picks) just to force draft the #6 or #7th ranked QB on Schoen's draft board at the end of Rd 1 though. Desperation drafting is never good, no matter the round.

Lock may just have to do for the 2024 season. Schoen/Daboll put themselves at risk and have to figure it out without making things worse.
RE: We may have been asking ourselves  
DonQuixote : 3/17/2024 11:01 am : link
In comment 16436120 Biteymax22 said:
Quote:
The wrong question when it comes to QB.

Up until now everyone has been talking about who of the Top 4 QBs the Giants like, we may need to start asking who in that next group would be on their radar.

Do Schoen/Daboll have a high grade on one of the following day 2 targets:

Nix
Penix
Pratt
Rattler
Milton?

If so, would they have to trade back into RD1 for Nix or Penix? What is too early for Rattler/Pratt/Milton?

Its worth spending more time on the second wave of QBs than we have been.


Nix is going to be a day 1 target.

My question marks are with Daniels, who is an electric talent, but didn't even weigh in at the combine, and Maye, who throws the ball all over the field. If those two are drafted above the Giants, then I see Giants being able to select a QB at 6, the most likely being McCarthy/Nix.

If it plays out in any other way, I am for BPA then a developmental QB not named Rattler.
RE: RE: Nice overview  
Blue The Dog : 3/17/2024 11:01 am : link
In comment 16436127 gidiefor said:
Quote:

Yes this is also true, but I don't see this driving how the decisions are made. The Giants have basically put a fixed cost into Jones. Right now the odds are saying we have to see this through. ( as an aside, the salary cap can be manipulate and it will also be dramatically going up. Some estimates put it in the mid three hundred millions within the next five years)


But it's not a fixed cost. The cost can increase by 50% if he gets injured. And you can say the cap is going up or whatever, but the injury clause for 2025 is basically the same value as Brian Burns cap hit, so unless you think someone like Brian Burns is worthless, then you can't pretend like it isn't a big deal
Another choice would be to trade #6  
sec308 : 3/17/2024 11:02 am : link
with a quarterback hungry team but only if it includes their #1 pick next year in hopes they bottom out next year. Then we are back in a quarterback sweepstakes.
nygiantfan  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 3/17/2024 11:02 am : link
Problem is they are down to six draft picks. How many more picks do you trade away? We also already gave up one of 7 picks next year.
Nix  
section302 : 3/17/2024 11:06 am : link
Assuming the top 4 rated QB’s in the draft are taken before the Giants pick, Nix could be the plan. Obviously this depends on how the Giants evaluate him. He may not have the ceiling as the other guys, but a strong argument can be made that he has the highest floor.

In my opinion the Giants would be foolish to risk Jones getting hurt again with the injury clause in his contract. I wouldn’t let him take a snap next season. The Giants should restructure some contracts and cut him as soon as he is healthy. Perhaps give him an opportunity to waive the clause if he wants to try and win the job outright.

Nix has the most experience of any of the QB’s coming out this year and probably the only one I would feel comfortable giving the job to week 1. With all the available veteran QB’s on the market now taken, this could be the plan if the Giants don’t want to risk another Jones injury and don’t want Lock to be the plan for the year.

They could try to trade back and gain additional picks to do this or take MHJ (if available) Odunze, or Nabors and trade up in the 2nd or later 1rst to get him.

I don’t know about you but I would be incensed if Jones plays and gets hurt potentially triggering the clause that would set us back at least another year. They should be able to tell if Nix is their guy fairly early since he is closer to his ceiling (based on experience) If it doesn’t work out try again in a couple of years. Again, this plan only works if the Giants think he has the goods.
RE: nygiantfan  
nygiantfan : 3/17/2024 11:08 am : link
In comment 16436148 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
Problem is they are down to six draft picks. How many more picks do you trade away? We also already gave up one of 7 picks next year.


That shouldn't be a bigger concern than passing on a Tier 2 QB that your scouts/evals say has enough potential to be good in the NFL.

There is a fine line here of not forcing a QB pick and at some point actually drafting one. This team can't go year after year of just passing up some level of investment in the QB position. Jones was drafted many moons ago.
RE: RE: RE: Nice overview  
gidiefor : Mod : 3/17/2024 11:11 am : link
In comment 16436145 Blue The Dog said:
Quote:
But it's not a fixed cost. The cost can increase by 50% if he gets injured. And you can say the cap is going up or whatever, but the injury clause for 2025 is basically the same value as Brian Burns cap hit, so unless you think someone like Brian Burns is worthless, then you can't pretend like it isn't a big deal


I disagree with this. It is a fixed cost because his contract says it is a fixed cost if this happens. Like it or not the injury guarantee goes along with a premium position contract, and the Giants already made that contract with Jones. It is equally possible that Jones, with more protection up front can make it through the season and be more comfortable behind this newly reshaped line. The Giants have put more resources into it and I see it as a strong possibility. Can this go wrong? Of course it can go wrong, but it still may be the best option.
RE: Another choice would be to trade #6  
LW_Giants : 3/17/2024 11:14 am : link
In comment 16436147 sec308 said:
Quote:
with a quarterback hungry team but only if it includes their #1 pick next year in hopes they bottom out next year. Then we are back in a quarterback sweepstakes.


This is what I've been advocating for if their guy isn't there at 6 and/or they can't trade up.
Gidie- your analysis was excellent!  
Dave on the UWS : 3/17/2024 11:15 am : link
but in the end- pointless. Eric's points (I hate agreeing with him so much), is really all that matters.
NYG really does NOT have a starter caliber QB on the roster (I don't think of Locke that way).

Can you imagine the immense NATIONAL blow back, if Jones plays, gets injured in the neck- AGAIN, and is paralyzed from it? ( a very REAL possibility). Not only will the Giants be on the hook for his injury guarantee, but the media will be all over the organization for "subjecting Jones to this kind of risk".
The immense black eye will surely cause Mara to fire Schoen and we get to start ALL OVER AGAIN.

As Eric said, they are in a really terrible place, with their backs up against the wall.

I see only 2 options.

1. draft one of these 6 QBs somewhere in the first rd.
even if they suck, you move on within 2 years (as BW recommends.). drafting one buys them time and allows them to keep Jones on the bench until they can release him.

2. if they don't see ANY QB as viable this year, play Locke
get through the season, and figure out the QB of the future next year (unless a miracle happens and Locke becomes
a winning QB- like Goff in Detroit).

Either way, Jones CAN'T take another snap. That would be suicide for this regime.
RE: RE: We may have been asking ourselves  
GFAN52 : 3/17/2024 11:15 am : link
In comment 16436144 DonQuixote said:
Quote:
In comment 16436120 Biteymax22 said:


Quote:


The wrong question when it comes to QB.

Up until now everyone has been talking about who of the Top 4 QBs the Giants like, we may need to start asking who in that next group would be on their radar.

Do Schoen/Daboll have a high grade on one of the following day 2 targets:

Nix
Penix
Pratt
Rattler
Milton?

If so, would they have to trade back into RD1 for Nix or Penix? What is too early for Rattler/Pratt/Milton?

Its worth spending more time on the second wave of QBs than we have been.



Nix is going to be a day 1 target.

My question marks are with Daniels, who is an electric talent, but didn't even weigh in at the combine, and Maye, who throws the ball all over the field. If those two are drafted above the Giants, then I see Giants being able to select a QB at 6, the most likely being McCarthy/Nix.

If it plays out in any other way, I am for BPA then a developmental QB not named Rattler.


McCarthy is likely to go at picks 4 or 5, if Maye goes to NE at 3. I want no part of Nix at pick 6.
RE: Eric.  
ColHowPepper : 3/17/2024 11:18 am : link
In comment 16436106 bLiTz 2k said:
Quote:
Man, that injury clause is by far the worst thing I've seen in a Giants contract in my lifetime....

Yep, in my mind that's the key factor that undoes what is otherwise a good post by gdie. I just don't see how JS can run Jones (let alone all the real questions whether he is capable) out there with the cap hit risk for '25 for an oft-injured player.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Nice overview  
Blue The Dog : 3/17/2024 11:19 am : link
In comment 16436173 gidiefor said:
Quote:
In comment 16436145 Blue The Dog said:


Quote:


But it's not a fixed cost. The cost can increase by 50% if he gets injured. And you can say the cap is going up or whatever, but the injury clause for 2025 is basically the same value as Brian Burns cap hit, so unless you think someone like Brian Burns is worthless, then you can't pretend like it isn't a big deal



I disagree with this. It is a fixed cost because his contract says it is a fixed cost if this happens. Like it or not the injury guarantee goes along with a premium position contract, and the Giants already made that contract with Jones. It is equally possible that Jones, with more protection up front can make it through the season and be more comfortable behind this newly reshaped line. The Giants have put more resources into it and I see it as a strong possibility. Can this go wrong? Of course it can go wrong, but it still may be the best option.


Huh? Can you tell me right now what Daniel Jones will cost in the 2025 cap if he isn't in the team next year? No, you can't because we don't know if the injury guarantee will kick in or not. That's by definition not a fixed cost.

And it's a hold leap to say that the player who has made it through 1 season healthy in 5, and has 3 neck injuries, is just as likely to stay healthy as he is to get injured. But again, would you want to bet the amount of cap space used for both of our new OL, and RB combined on Jones staying healthy?
Good analysis, gidie,  
Section331 : 3/17/2024 11:25 am : link
the only pushback I have is expecting Jones to perform at the level he did in 2022. He’s coming off 2 significant injuries, and even if he is fully healthy, how much do you want to expose him to contact when he hasn’t show he can consistently stay healthy? And how much will Saquon’s departure impact Daboll’s RPO heavy scheme?

The other, and more important point, is that defenses caught on to Daboll’s schemes. They know that Jones is a one read QB who has a propensity to run when that one read is taken away. Keep a spy on him, and play tight coverage close to the LOS. Expecting to be successful repeating what they ran in 2022 is a fool’s errand, I’m afraid.
Teams can’t spend years  
Mike from Ohio : 3/17/2024 11:32 am : link
Waiting to finish as one of the worst 2-3 teams in the league so they can just grab a QB without spending anymore than a single pick. You can’t win consistently in this league without a viable QB and the Giants don’t have one.

There needs to be a plan to address the most important position on the field. Jones - Lock - DeVito and see what happens in 2025 isn’t a plan, it’s a wish.
RE: Gidie- your analysis was excellent!  
gidiefor : Mod : 3/17/2024 11:37 am : link
In comment 16436178 Dave on the UWS said:
Quote:
but in the end- pointless. Eric's points (I hate agreeing with him so much), is really all that matters.
NYG really does NOT have a starter caliber QB on the roster (I don't think of Locke that way).

Can you imagine the immense NATIONAL blow back, if Jones plays, gets injured in the neck- AGAIN, and is paralyzed from it? ( a very REAL possibility). Not only will the Giants be on the hook for his injury guarantee, but the media will be all over the organization for "subjecting Jones to this kind of risk".
The immense black eye will surely cause Mara to fire Schoen and we get to start ALL OVER AGAIN......

Either way, Jones CAN'T take another snap. That would be suicide for this regime.


In my view this issue is a Red Herring. It makes for dramatic crescendos of either the sky is falling or it will fall. You want to go there be my guest, but this scenario also presages a season like we just had.

At the end of the day if we have a season like we just had, and we've improved the trenches and talent on the team, then we go into 2025 with a high premium pick again, and can either make a trade for a QB if it makes sense, or pick one in the draft, which ever makes better sense if and when the time comes. (see Tampa, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Tennessee) the injury guarantee blip into the dead cap will just have to be dealt with. That's what the GM get's paid to do. I am not going to spend a lot of my time crying over spilt milk if and when it spills. That is for others, who enjoy going there to do, imv. You want to say, "I told you so," after the season and it happens, I will shrug and say, "So what. This was the chance they had to take." Both Shoen and Jones are big boys and this is what they bargained for.

Will I like it? No, but I can justify it.

Gidiedor.....nice post!!! Going against the BBI masses!  
George from PA : 3/17/2024 11:42 am : link
Current BBI sentiment: Jones future with Gianta is over. Jones will never touch the field again and the Giants are desperate for a QB.

The QB craze this year across the NFL is extremely high.....if what Viking is planning true....4 QB drafted in top 5!!!

Are we really seeing the best QB class ever! Or will several teams make big mistakes!

I am fine with the Giants drafting a QB...if a QB the Giants like....is available. But

Not all in!!!! I would not sacrifice 2025 draft picks.....I would not include our best players ....I would accept drafting a QB...but not under desperate measures.

Especially.....with the illusive #1 WR and 1 of the top players in entire draft sitting there.....seems like a simple choice...imo.

Also....the narrative of Taylor and Cutlet are better than Jones is false.

The team played better.....because the OL played better.....neither Taylor, not cutlet are better than Jones
Schoen is on record that he likes as many swings as possible  
gtt350 : 3/17/2024 11:53 am : link
I see trading back as a real possibility.
So many qb's with rave reviews have been total busts.
Lock did fine in Seattle I think we take best player available or trade back
Asking the right question  
Colin@gbn : 3/17/2024 12:03 pm : link
Morning guys: Well-thought out post Gidie and interesting discussion. The one thing that I sense is that the discussion that's actually going on in the Giants War Room is almost totally the opposite of the one you guys are having. It appears to me the whole tenor of the board is how do we avoid worst case scenarios whereas what I suspect what the Giants are thinking is that we are an improving team (albeit with still a ways to go) and are focused on how do we get to the playoffs and beyond.

And whether one agrees with them or not (and it matters not a whit if one doesn't) they think that right now Jones gives them the best option to get there. So many here are focused on the past when for the most part the Giants were a bad to really bad team making it almost impossible to know how good any QB would be, the Giants may very well have made the decision that Jones has the tools to be effective in the offence they want to run going forward. As an aside re the comment that Jones was outplayed by Taylor/DeVito, my guess is the Giants thinking is that if they'd had a healthy Jones for the full season they would have won 2-3 more games and been in the playoff hunt again.

Is the injury concern a real concern? Absolutely! And if it happens it happens as Gidie says you deal with it and move on. Could they take a QB at #6. Absolutely, because while I believe Jones is a better QB than most around here give him credit for he still not elite and you don't get many chances to get one even if the odds are slim. At the same time, I joked with a friend the other day saying that maybe the Giants are quietly hoping the 3 top QBs go 1-2-3 and that Minny trades up to 4-5 for McCarthy so they can take the WR but still say to the fans we wanted to take a QB and we tried to move but didn't have the ammo and at 6 none were worth a pick that high.

Ultimately time will tell and we now have less than 40 days to the draft but me fears its going to be a long 40 days.
Nice  
AcidTest : 3/17/2024 12:04 pm : link
post.

I have made it clear that I do not want to trade up for any of these QBs. I don't see Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, or Jackson when looking at Williams, Maye, Daniels, or JJM. I'm happy taking any of them at #6, but don't want to trade up.

But I also think Schoen did try and trade up, particularly with NE, and maybe also with AZ and SD. He was either beaten out by Minnesota, the teams decided not to trade, or they were asking too much.

The end result is that I think we either take Nabers or Odunze at six or trade down. If either happens, then it will be interesting to see if the Giants draft a QB later on, or just punt the position until next year.
RE: nygiantfan  
AcidTest : 3/17/2024 12:05 pm : link
In comment 16436148 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
Problem is they are down to six draft picks. How many more picks do you trade away? We also already gave up one of 7 picks next year.


I think we still have seven picks next year. Carolina has our fifth round pick, but we have Seattle's fifth round pick from the LW trade.
Good post, Colin  
Mike from Ohio : 3/17/2024 12:07 pm : link
I don’t agree Jones gives this team the best chance to win, but you are right - it only matters what Schoen and Daboll think.

I will say this, though - if they believe they can win with Daniel Jones, I hope we have heard the end of the mantra “smart, tough, dependable.” I don’t see how anyone can argue that that describes Daniel Jones and his complete inability to play a full season.

Our last GM had no plan. If our new GM is going to keep reciting this mantra, he needs to make sure his plan is following it.
RE: Asking the right question  
nygiantfan : 3/17/2024 12:14 pm : link
In comment 16436273 Colin@gbn said:
Quote:


And whether one agrees with them or not (and it matters not a whit if one doesn't) they think that right now Jones gives them the best option to get there. So many here are focused on the past when for the most part the Giants were a bad to really bad team making it almost impossible to know how good any QB would be, the Giants may very well have made the decision that Jones has the tools to be effective in the offence they want to run going forward. As an aside re the comment that Jones was outplayed by Taylor/DeVito, my guess is the Giants thinking is that if they'd had a healthy Jones for the full season they would have won 2-3 more games and been in the playoff hunt again.



You have to be joking with this, right?
Drafting a QB.  
Archer : 3/17/2024 12:14 pm : link

Drafting a QB seems to be difficult at best with the success rate poor in the first round but much worse after the first round.

The success rate is defined below.
Quote:


Since 2011 there have been 38 first-round quarterbacks who have made a total of 1,909 starts. Their record? 1034-1035-7
Of these 38 quarterbacks, 10 are still on their rookie deal, so set them aside. Of the other 28, only 11 (39%) were even given a second deal with the team that drafted them.

All that draft capital was spent to get 3.4 years on average, of what most typically was poor performance.


The statistics get worse when you factor in the QBs who are in their rookie deals.

So the first round has a poor success rate but it plummets when drafting QBs in the later rounds.

Second-round picks are 50% less likely to succeed than first-round picks.
Third-round picks have a success rate that is 25% of the first round.


Drafting a QB is difficult at best in the first round but becomes a wasted selection after the first round.

Yes, there are the exceptions that we all know about but they are an anomaly, and teams who have significant needs can ill afford to gamble on a later pick.
RE: Good post, Colin  
Sammo85 : 3/17/2024 12:15 pm : link
In comment 16436282 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
I don’t agree Jones gives this team the best chance to win, but you are right - it only matters what Schoen and Daboll think.

I will say this, though - if they believe they can win with Daniel Jones, I hope we have heard the end of the mantra “smart, tough, dependable.” I don’t see how anyone can argue that that describes Daniel Jones and his complete inability to play a full season.

Our last GM had no plan. If our new GM is going to keep reciting this mantra, he needs to make sure his plan is following it.


Agreed and I can’t agree with any of Colin’s premises on Jones. I don’t see Giants subscribing to any such process or optimism on Jones. He was and is a short term hedge and any trust is out window with how he played even before injury.
good post gidiefor  
Eric on Li : 3/17/2024 12:18 pm : link
i have a few slight disagreements like preferring odunze as a plan B because of the premium-ness of the WR position, but other than that i think your read is correct.

I think the draft turns on what the cardinals do at #4. If they are willing to trade down and the Vikings bid things up to high i dont think it makes sense to get into a bidding war unless they are absolute thrilled with whoever the QB4 is to a comparable level as they were with josh allen.
 
ryanmkeane : 3/17/2024 12:27 pm : link
Lots of people here saying the Giants “got it wrong” on the Jones contract are basing that off historicly bad OL play/pressures for a month straight and then a torn knee on a freak play.

Call me crazy but it’s fairly premature to say that. He signed a 2 year guaranteed deal with a dead money out.

See how things transpire with the draft and then go from there.
We don't know Schoens QB rankings  
PatersonPlank : 3/17/2024 12:27 pm : link
I think this all comes down to how they value "qb5" in this draft. If they have (for example) Nix graded roughly the same as their 4th QB (lets say Maye or JJ), then they will absolutely just sit there and let the draft come to them. If JJ and Maye go, they still get Nix who they have rated as 4b or they can trade down slightly and still get him.

Obviously if they only have 3 QBs graded as good enough, then they need to trade up or just give up on a QB
It’s become quite the dilemma……  
Simms11 : 3/17/2024 12:28 pm : link
What to do at QB. Most important position on the team and the Giants just don’t have a guy right now that can inspire and create offense. DJ is a one-trick pony and when opposing defenses take away his #1 read, he’s running and now, with his injury history, will put him in serious risk of additional injury and quite possibly life-altering injury! I truly believe Lock is going to get more of a chance to start then’s been reported. That said, somewhere, somehow, the Giants must draft a QB that they believe can come in an eventually be a starter. I think they'll be aggressive in moving up to possibly 5 to get their guy. May be the #4 QB, but so be it. They need a QB in a QB-rich class. The #4 rated QB this year could quite possibly be looked at as a #1 next or better than anyone coming out next year. The Giants put themselves in this position with the silly contract they gave Jones.
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