There’s a ton of speculation about the Giants trading up to draft a QB but to me this is a terrible idea, especially if it costs a 1 next year.
There a lot of analysis around first round QBs and how often they fail, the link below is just one example. Here they looked at QBs drafted in round 1 over 15 years and only 44% are considered home runs or mixed. If you take out the players drafted 1st overall it’s much worse.
So we all need to acknowledge that even if the Giants trade up there is a better than even chance they’ll do so for a bust.
Now that doesn’t mean the Giants shouldn’t draft a QB, by all means take a swing, but please don’t trade away capital that will build the team and give us ammunition to take another swing in the future.
Sit tight at 6, draft the next best QB or take a player more likely to be a home run. Then take a swing in round 2.
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The best scenario is that that #4 QB is there at pick #6 and either that's the one we wanted all along, or Denver and Minnesota get into a bidding war for the pick.
My thinking is evolving to the following, and it's much like dating - you're only desperate if you think you are. And desperation smells.
There are lots of good options for this team if we stay put at #6, including maybe even adding a 3rd pass rusher in Dallas Turner.
I think Arizona is a lock to stay put and given San Diego also has no WRs, they may decide to stay put as well.
LMFAO! 🤣
Bust potential is even worse after round 1. Those would be wasted picks
One can dream.... Give me a 1 WR in the 6th or trade back
Won't the QB in 2025 have the same chance to bust as the QB in 2024?
By your logic the Giants should never take a QB. I just don't get why the "future swing" has any less bust potential than this swing.
If the Giants have belief in a player they should do what they can to take the player. it's their jobs on the line one way or the other.
IMO we cannot worry about all the holes we need to fill in a draft or two.
However we need to fill the most important one first. That's getting this organization the QB they want ASAP.
If they love a prospect this draft, move heaven and earth to get him.
Then build around him.
It's pretty much guaranteed the franchise is stuck in mud if they stick with Jones, everyone knows what he is at this point and it's not good enough. The NFL knows his limitations very well. Also, they could be in an even worse situation having to pay his injury settlement with the high chance he gets injured yet again. Those neck injuries are scary, and the leg injury might have taken away his only elite asset to his game which was running.
If they believe in a prospect, they can't pass up on them if they don't think they'll be available at 6. They might be wrong and that's likely, but rolling out Jones for the 6th year in a row would be insanity. The last time the Giants were shit on for giving up too much for a QB in the draft they won two Super Bowls. Doesn't mean it'll happen again, but it's an example of when it did go right.
However, the problem I have is Schoen and Daboll just made a huge error in evaluating and paying Daniel Jones. So now I would tighten that leash on allowing them to use a lot of extra draft collateral to pick a certain QB. They don’t just get that leeway back right away.
So no, it’s not a bad idea. Not drafting a QB at all would be a bad idea.
Cool, and you know what would happen? A lot of us would admit being wrong.
You know what will never happen? Mea culpas from the Jones diehards if the highlight of his career happened in Minnesota in January 2023.
It's life. There are no guarantees. But if Joe/Dabs have a conviction about one of these QBs, go balls to the wall to get him.
staying at 6 and drafting the next best available QB = the right approach. Or even better draft a QB in round 2. lol.
what a loser mentality. no offense.
After Peyton Manning was Ryan Leaf
After Trevor Lawrence was Zach Wilson
After Josh Allen was Josh Rosen
After Jared Goff was Carson Wentz
After Andrew Luck was RG-3
After Cam Newton was Jake Locker
After Mathew Stafford was Mark Sanchez
After Drew Bledsoe was Rick Mirer
After Troy Aikman was Mike Elkins
To be fair, not all the “After QBs” were bad, while sometimes, both the 1st and the 2nd QBs were busts. But the Giants can’t just sit back and hope a QB falls to them.
An extra 2nd or 3rd or even a 1 next year won’t matter if we get a franchise QB. And if we don’t get a franchise QB, then all those picks we kept, won’t get the Giants another championship.
Quit your day job 'cause you're hilarious!
After Peyton Manning was Ryan Leaf
After Trevor Lawrence was Zach Wilson
After Josh Allen was Josh Rosen
After Jared Goff was Carson Wentz
After Andrew Luck was RG-3
After Cam Newton was Jake Locker
After Mathew Stafford was Mark Sanchez
After Drew Bledsoe was Rick Mirer
After Troy Aikman was Mike Elkins
To be fair, not all the “After QBs” were bad, while sometimes, both the 1st and the 2nd QBs were busts. But the Giants can’t just sit back and hope a QB falls to them.
An extra 2nd or 3rd or even a 1 next year won’t matter if we get a franchise QB. And if we don’t get a franchise QB, then all those picks we kept, won’t get the Giants another championship.
And after Kyler Murray was.....Daniel Jones. Game, set, match.
All say hello.
All say hello.
You mean to tell me that sometimes a QB taken later is better than the QB taken prior? Who knew?
I was responding to the OP that suggested the Giants should "sit tight and draft the next best QB". There are exceptions, but that's not usually a good plan
staying at 6 and drafting the next best available QB = the right approach. Or even better draft a QB in round 2. lol.
what a loser mentality. no offense.
I’d rather draft JJ Mccathey and Bo Nix than Jayden Daniels is what I’m saying. Obviously they won’t draft 2 this year but they could draft one this year and one next. I think the odds of hitting on that approach is higher than trading next years pick. It’s not a loser mentality, it’s math.
All say hello.
How about our very own Eli Manning???
In 2004 they had plenty of holes all over the roster too and what did they do?
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about this post is the OP suggests trading up and targeting a player the FO/coaching staff have conviction about = bust potential and should be avoided.
staying at 6 and drafting the next best available QB = the right approach. Or even better draft a QB in round 2. lol.
what a loser mentality. no offense.
I’d rather draft JJ Mccathey and Bo Nix than Jayden Daniels is what I’m saying. Obviously they won’t draft 2 this year but they could draft one this year and one next. I think the odds of hitting on that approach is higher than trading next years pick. It’s not a loser mentality, it’s math.
that's different than what your post says.
if you (Schoen/Daboll) feel like McCarthy or Nix are better QB prospects than Daniels and you can reasonably expect to remain at 6 and draft McCarthy or trade down (or back into the first and get Nix) that's a completely different post than yours. which was basically don't trade up for a QB you love like Caleb or Daniels or Maye because the cost is too high and they could bust and you can settle for Penix (or whoever).
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Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, CJ Stroud.
All say hello.
How about our very own Eli Manning???
N/m I missed what you were going for there at first.
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In comment 16438004 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
about this post is the OP suggests trading up and targeting a player the FO/coaching staff have conviction about = bust potential and should be avoided.
staying at 6 and drafting the next best available QB = the right approach. Or even better draft a QB in round 2. lol.
what a loser mentality. no offense.
I’d rather draft JJ Mccathey and Bo Nix than Jayden Daniels is what I’m saying. Obviously they won’t draft 2 this year but they could draft one this year and one next. I think the odds of hitting on that approach is higher than trading next years pick. It’s not a loser mentality, it’s math.
that's different than what your post says.
if you (Schoen/Daboll) feel like McCarthy or Nix are better QB prospects than Daniels and you can reasonably expect to remain at 6 and draft McCarthy or trade down (or back into the first and get Nix) that's a completely different post than yours. which was basically don't trade up for a QB you love like Caleb or Daniels or Maye because the cost is too high and they could bust and you can settle for Penix (or whoever).
I’m not saying I have an opinion on any of them. The pros miss 60% of the time, who am I to pretend like I’m any better.
What I’m saying is that the odds of any of these guys after the top 2 is probably like 30% success, tops.
Let’s say Daniels and Williams are 1-2, so we’re looking at trading up for Maye at 3 by trading next years first and a second. Let’s say he has a 30% chance of hitting. Alternatively we can sit tight and take a QB at 6 with a 20% of success and another next year with a 20% chance of success. The odds of hitting on one of the two in the latter scenario is 36%, so we’re better off.
The numbers are of course just indicative, the point is this is a crapshoot and generally speaking you’re better off not pretending otherwise, and give yourself multiple chances.
At 6, the Giants will be choosing from at least 2 of Maye, McCarthy and the top 3 WR.
To me, I’m fine with any of those players if it means I get to keep my 2nd rounder and/or first next year.
Giants have too many holes to spend burn picks on a move up, especially when we can GUARANTEE that there will be at least 2 stud prospects at positions of need on the board at 6.
This is not the scenario to be aggressive…