It's been 2-3 weeks since he told the press he'd make a decision soon, but that the Giants hadn't put a deadline on him.
I don't ever begrudge players making the right decision for their real lives, so if the Giants aren't worried there's no reason for me to be as a fan.
My guess is he retires. His hamstring issues seem chronic, especially if he's suffered nerve damage.
It was roughly a year ago they traded for him, and he was clearly a big part of the offensive plan. If he's not coming back and/or is a diminished version of the guy they bet on, I think this is an under scrutinized story going into the draft.
He is either done or wants out.
I think the Giants may go after a TE in the draft so they dont want to tip their hand. Plus it will be a post June retirement so no rush.
Waller looked like he didnt want to play last year.
I think the Giants may go after a TE in the draft so they dont want to tip their hand. Plus it will be a post June retirement so no rush.
Waller looked like he didnt want to play last year.
However, the closer we get to the draft, if he hasn't announced, I think that suggests he wants to keep playing. "Wants to" is not the same as "can" or "will" though.
It's also possible he or his people are communicating with the Giants confidentially. The fans will probably be the last to know.
His wife lives in Las Vegas and they have been married for less than a year. I can't imagine he'd want to come back to NY for a another year given his long line of injuries, spouse in another city, and his lack of long term connection to the Giants.
I think he can easily be replaced by using the recievers, mostly WanDale and Bellenger more.
Hoping Bellinger can get back to what he showed his rookie year, playing his natural position.
I like Bellinger a lot, but based on last year when he had his shot, he wasn't a big part of the offense. I doubt he's going to take on the burden of a meaningful amount of more targets.
The Giants were in the bottom 4th in the league in pass attempts last year with 518. I expect them to pass more next year with the absence of Barkley and potentially Jones.
I doubt Robinson goes from 75 targets to 125+, but maybe.
All that to say if the Giants need to pass the ball more, someone needs to be on the receiving end.
Long distance relationships suck, maybe he wants to get closer to his significant other? Perhaps he is angling to go back to the Raiders (with change in management) or another team out that way.
It wouldn't surprise me if there were discussions happening between Schoen and Waller behind the scenes.
If you look at Waller's base salaries, that is a lot of money to leave on the table. (per over the cap)
2024: $10,525,000
2025: $11,525,000
2026: $13,525,000
Plus there is $1,275,000 each year in per game roster bonuses.
That potentially adds up to $39,400,000
I suspect Waller wants the coin, but isn't happy with either the long-distance or perhaps where the Giants are at (or both).
I can't image there is a strong trade market for a soon-to-be 32-year-old TE who's missed 6, 8, and 5 games the last years. Especially with a ~12M price tags in 2024.
The Giants would have to eat some of his salary to get anything of value back. And even then I can't imagine he would draw more than a 5th round pick in a trade.
If Waller retires (or is cut before June 1), we have $7,376,250 in dead money and $6,707,500 in extra cap space.
If we cut Waller after June 1, we have $2,458,750 and $11,625,000 in cap space.
If Waller retires, the Giants own his rights
Waller could be trying to get cut, allowing him to sign wherever he likes.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Waller was trying to use the threat of retirement to force his being traded or released.
Dugan was saying how they played him way too hard in training camp and since he was coming off two injury-shortened years he should have been used sparingly like the 30 year old vet he is.
But I guess Danny needed his reps with Waller or something.
If Waller retires (or is cut before June 1), we have $7,376,250 in dead money and $6,707,500 in extra cap space.
If we cut Waller after June 1, we have $2,458,750 and $11,625,000 in cap space.
If Waller retires, the Giants own his rights
Waller could be trying to get cut, allowing him to sign wherever he likes.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Waller was trying to use the threat of retirement to force his being traded or released.
I know it would excite may of the drama queens on here, but the guy actually likes the organization and coaching staff in NY.
Retirement is legitimately on his mind due to injuries and personal life. (Fyi I'm not an asshat, but have heard things from people involved with the league, and I'll leave it at that).
If Waller retires (or is cut before June 1), we have $7,376,250 in dead money and $6,707,500 in extra cap space.
If we cut Waller after June 1, we have $2,458,750 and $11,625,000 in cap space.
If Waller retires, the Giants own his rights
Waller could be trying to get cut, allowing him to sign wherever he likes.
Personally I wouldn't be surprised if Waller was trying to use the threat of retirement to force his being traded or released.
That's EXACTLY what he's trying to do IMO. He wants to continue to get paid and wants to be closer to his wife on the West Coast. He thinks he's slick, but he's not. I'd trade him at the draft if I could, but he's not worth anything after last season and he costs too damned much.
My guess is he would love to play another year, but 6 months away from home and constant injury is beating him down.
My guess is he waits until mini-camps start(reality sets in) and then retires.
I am pretty sure I have enough already.
i dont think they signed 2 new tight ends for no reason.
I am probably the most bullish defender of the current crop of skill players, but if Waller is not in the cards, on top of losing Barkley this would indicate the Giants need a pass catcher and running back.
Why would the Raiders have a claim to a bonus when the commercial agreement was transferred to the Giants?
The Giants paid him a restructure bonus last year that was the conversion of his 2023 salary less the veteran minimum.
They could try and recover some part of that, but the results in those clawback attempts is pretty hit or miss. Because that bonus wasn't a true signing bonus, but just the reshuffling of money I doubt the Giants would succeed in a claim.
The June 1 component I agree comes into play *if* the Giants need the cap relief on 2024. Based on their draft slot, they are functionally OK for now, but will need to create more room to operate in 2024.
Why would the Raiders have a claim to a bonus when the commercial agreement was transferred to the Giants?
The Giants paid him a restructure bonus last year that was the conversion of his 2023 salary less the veteran minimum.
They could try and recover some part of that, but the results in those clawback attempts is pretty hit or miss. Because that bonus wasn't a true signing bonus, but just the reshuffling of money I doubt the Giants would succeed in a claim.
The June 1 component I agree comes into play *if* the Giants need the cap relief on 2024. Based on their draft slot, they are functionally OK for now, but will need to create more room to operate in 2024.
He signed this contract with the Raiders. They paid a signing bonus. If he retires, he didn’t fulfill the contract he got the bonus for. Doesnt really matter that they traded him. OTOH, it was a small bonus so they may not bother.
Giant’s can’t clawback the restructure. That’s money was for services already performed (last years salary). You can only claw back money paid in advance for future services not performed.
the signing bonus was paid out for performance of a contract the nyg now own, so i would think they would have the claim even though they wouldnt have owned the initial cap hit. im not sure about the rules around that but since it's so low in this case its functionally irrelevant.
i dont think the giants would have any claim against the restructure $ last year since that was guaranteed base that would have been paid out in 2023.
so since there is no difference in cap between cut/retirement i suspect they are holding him for one of these reasons:
a) retirement lowers chances of injury claim than cut, as does him showing up for work healthy and ready to participate (possible)
b) camouflaging their intentions ahead of draft (unlikely)
c) possibility of trade (also unlikely)
d) because they want to keep him
at 10.5m d seems the hardest to believe honestly.
certainly possible since his wife plays in vegas he'd rather be on the west coast, but it is extremely unlikely anyone wants to pay him the 10.5m on his current contract. if he were a FA i think he'd be hanging out with OBJ right now waiting for the phone to ring on a 1 year deal that's heavily incentive based.
same ages, beckham played better and played more than waller last year at the more premium position.
The only chance he has to earn that IMV is in the unlikely event there is a trade where the Giants are willing to eat some of that money and the compensation back is worth it.
If the Giants were able to recoup a 3rd (near impossibly), they might be willing to eat half of the new 2024 cash.
But no one is trading anything of value for the right to pay Waller 6M this year.
Based on potential, he would be missed. Based on performance, what he has done to date, when available, can be compensated for by those still on team after his retirement.
The only chance he has to earn that IMV is in the unlikely event there is a trade where the Giants are willing to eat some of that money and the compensation back is worth it.
If the Giants were able to recoup a 3rd (near impossibly), they might be willing to eat half of the new 2024 cash.
But no one is trading anything of value for the right to pay Waller 6M this year.
you might be able to get a day 3 pick and that may be worth it during the draft if someone they like is there at pick #140 or something like that. or maybe as a throw in for a trade up from pick #47 to pick #43 or something like that.
my best guess is the giants are looking at it like they have time to make the decision before eating new $ this year. that they have enough flexibility to do what they want now before dealing with his cap situation.
he may be be the 'in-season petty cash' they tap into if they move on after most of the business of the offseason is taken care of.