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The fallacy of “Build First, then get your QB”

Formerly TD : 3/26/2024 12:49 pm
Figured we could address this notion once and for all here.

While those who espouse this notion point to failed QBs like Daniel Jones as examples of how drafting a QB to start on a bad team is likely to “ruin” the QB, history shows the QB was probably bad/mediocre to begin with and good QBs are not similarly affected by landing on a bad team. Further, the logic just does not compute given the realities of the salary cap, NFL draft and fan/media/ownership/player expectations.

Let’s dive in:

1) History does not support this notion. Examples of wildly successful QBs drafted into bad teams include P. Manning, Elway, Aikman, Stroud and many others. Regarding the QBs that failed on their bad team, there is no support for the argument they were good to begin with. Just as likely they were simply flawed prospects whose flaws were exposed at the pro level like so many other players regardless of what kind of team drafts them.

2) This notion does not take into consideration the realities of the roster building in the salary cap era. It is so hard to pay and keep all of your good players, assuming you are good/fortunate enough to accumulate them. By the time you are “ready” to draft your QB, your window with the current roster is small if there is one. Once players come up for free agency, you have to start making tough choices and you struggle to maintain the same talent level. Not to mention….

3) It’s damn hard to find several pro-bowl type players and then land your franchise QB. I don’t know how many times that’s actually been done, if ever. SF is the example I hear thrown around every now and then but they whiffed on Lance and the book is still out on Purdy. And they still haven’t won anything.

4) Good teams draft typically later. This is an easy one. Unless you trade your way into the top 10 in a good QB class, your chance of hitting on a franchise QB is very low. And good teams - even those with mediocre QBs - tend to draft later.

5) Good teams are under pressure to win now. As hard as it is resetting things with a rookie AB, it’s even harder when you’re a playoff team or borderline playoff team. Pressure is on to win now and even the players get pissed when you reset in that situation (not to mention the fan/media pressure). It is just a tougher call for the GM to make - that first round pick could be a WR, OL, Edge, CB, etc., that fans/media/players view as the “last piece” of the puzzle.

Thoughts?
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The problem is that at some point the risk  
eugibs : 3/26/2024 6:28 pm : link
is just too high taking one of these young qbs at the top of the draft. Missing on the pick sets the franchise back at least half of a decade. You sacrifice potential upside not betting big on a qb, but the potential downside is just as, if not more, dramatic. Im just sick and tired of the Giants being a lousy team. I want them to be better. I want them to have good players. If they are a good team that’s a qb away for a few years then so be it, it’s better than the current status quo by a long shot.
RE: RE: how many times do we need to see QB-A  
JT039 : 3/26/2024 6:32 pm : link
In comment 16446859 Formerly TD said:
Quote:
In comment 16446706 djm said:


Quote:


play to a certain level in one place only to play to a completely different level somewhere else. Jeff Hostettler was a super bowl winning QB with NYG. He was a placeholder in Oakland. Stafford was a prolific but losing QB in DET then wins big in LA. Brady takes over for a decent QB playing for a good team and turns that team into a great one because he was better than the guy he replaced. The guy he replaced gets worse the minute he left the well run confines of New England. HE no longer wins more games than he loses as he did prior to leaving NE. Plunkett was a loser before Oakland/LA. Then he retires a 2 time super bowl winner.

QB is the most important and toughest position in the NFL. His level of play is also predicated on the most team orientated sport in the world. It matters.



Show me one example of a QB sucking on one team and being great on another. Let alone being great and winning a superbowl on another.


Steve Young
RE: The problem is that at some point the risk  
UConn4523 : 3/26/2024 6:52 pm : link
In comment 16447095 eugibs said:
Quote:
is just too high taking one of these young qbs at the top of the draft. Missing on the pick sets the franchise back at least half of a decade. You sacrifice potential upside not betting big on a qb, but the potential downside is just as, if not more, dramatic. Im just sick and tired of the Giants being a lousy team. I want them to be better. I want them to have good players. If they are a good team that’s a qb away for a few years then so be it, it’s better than the current status quo by a long shot.


The grade is the grade though. They aren’t going to be taking a QB with a second round grade at 6 so it all comes back to getting the pick right. I don’t think the risk is that high.
Some of you hate logic.  
Jint Fan in Buc Land : 3/26/2024 6:54 pm : link
How many bonafide WR1 are available via trade right now? Higgins Aiyuk at least

How many bonafide QB1s are available via trade?

This is obviously because they're more rare which of course causes ppl to remind everyone QB prospects may bust. But this applies to every position so why discuss it?

The roster does need to get better, and every position is easier to upgrade relative to QB. We're at 6 which makes it easier to draft a good QB prospect. Saying you can do the same thing from the middle 1st is not realistic

A lot of you guys are smart and know this, I think you just want to argue lol
It really just comes back to what people think  
UConn4523 : 3/26/2024 7:01 pm : link
of the players available at 6. If they don’t like McCarthy (or insert player) it’s a risk. What matters is Schoens grade.
History shows that no QB is successful without another  
Rudy5757 : 3/26/2024 8:25 pm : link
very good skill player on Offense.

Just about every Superbowl winning QB has a star TE, WR or RB or combination of multiple positions.

There is no issue with trading up to get the QB, the issue is that the Giants skill positions are the worst in the league or if you want to argue its bottom 5.

So, with nothing available in FA, really no trade ammo if we trade up for a QB and a somewhat tight cap situation where is this star skill position player coming from? Trading away next years #1 possibly for a QB is silly. We probably will be in a similar situation as Carolina with the #1 overall going to Chicago. When Chicago traded with us for Fields we traded #10 and got #7. How did Chicago do?

So where is the star power coming from? The QB needs at least one weapon to take the pressure off and make a play. If we stay at 6, we can at least take a stab at a WR in round 2. If we trade up, most likely round 2 is gone and next years 1. Again limited FA money and no guarantees there is a good FA option. There wasnt one this year.

As others have said there are many ways to build a team. I dont think trading away assets when we have no skill positions filled is a good way to go. yes you can hit on them later but we have a lot of holes. Jones contract is going to eat the cap this year and next and we dont know if the injury guarantee will kick in either.
You don't have to build the entire team  
kelly : 3/26/2024 8:27 pm : link
but you want a good o line to protect the qb.

So if I saw a need for a qb down the road I would make sure I had a good o line.

Just as the Giants did not do.
RE: History shows that no QB is successful without another  
Ten Ton Hammer : 3/26/2024 9:34 pm : link
In comment 16447162 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:

So, with nothing available in FA, really no trade ammo if we trade up for a QB and a somewhat tight cap situation where is this star skill position player coming from?


The answer is "It's not going to all get done in one year". It's that simple. The idea that it can be is nuts.

They traded to get Eli Manning.
In 2005, they spent money for McKenzie and Burress and drafted Brandon Jacobs, Justin Tuck and Corey Webster.

That's building a team. I don't know why we're overcomplicating this or overthinking it.

RE: RE: History shows that no QB is successful without another  
Scooter185 : 3/26/2024 9:39 pm : link
In comment 16447189 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 16447162 Rudy5757 said:


Quote:



So, with nothing available in FA, really no trade ammo if we trade up for a QB and a somewhat tight cap situation where is this star skill position player coming from?



The answer is "It's not going to all get done in one year". It's that simple. The idea that it can be is nuts.

They traded to get Eli Manning.
In 2005, they spent money for McKenzie and Burress and drafted Brandon Jacobs, Justin Tuck and Corey Webster.

That's building a team. I don't know why we're overcomplicating this or overthinking it.


Look at how the Bills did it as well: First they drafted Allen. The next year they focused on o-line, then in Josh's third year the brought in Diggs
The fallacy  
Fifty Six : 3/26/2024 10:40 pm : link
is thinking you can just Abra Cadabra your next great QB to be there where you pick. There are lots of legitimate team building strategies and all of them can work or fail based on circumstances, skill, and luck.
RE: History does actualyl kind of support it too  
Tuckrule : 3/27/2024 5:34 am : link
In comment 16446686 JT039 said:
Quote:
KC with Mahomes
Rams with Stafford
Philly and Hurts
Brady and the Bucs

Theres a lot of ways to build a team. But I do agree getting the QB when he is available is the way to go and we are at the point where we definitely need one ASAP.


Manning to broncos
Flacco to ravens
Russell Wilson Seahawks
Dak and Dallas
Goff and Detroit
Favre to Minnesota
Rodgers to jets?
Warner to Arizona


It is much smarter to build the roster and not force the qb. Once you land a qb even if mediocre that cheap contract allows you to retain your star players and acquire free agents and you can get very far with less at QB. If you draft a franchise guy then your scrambling to get a roster together before he’s paid
Also, if you're building a football roster the right way  
JonC : 3/27/2024 9:20 am : link
it should be decent enough to not put the team at the top of the draft the following season, making it that much more difficult to secure your QB.

Did winning 6 games and winding up picking #6 not make this clear?

Go ahead and stink, get the high draft picks and get your QB when the opportunity presents itself.
RE: RE: History does actualyl kind of support it too  
Ten Ton Hammer : 3/27/2024 9:51 am : link
In comment 16447274 Tuckrule said:
Quote:
In comment 16446686 JT039 said:


Quote:


KC with Mahomes
Rams with Stafford
Philly and Hurts
Brady and the Bucs

Theres a lot of ways to build a team. But I do agree getting the QB when he is available is the way to go and we are at the point where we definitely need one ASAP.



Manning to broncos
Flacco to ravens
Russell Wilson Seahawks
Dak and Dallas
Goff and Detroit
Favre to Minnesota
Rodgers to jets?
Warner to Arizona


It is much smarter to build the roster and not force the qb. Once you land a qb even if mediocre that cheap contract allows you to retain your star players and acquire free agents and you can get very far with less at QB. If you draft a franchise guy then your scrambling to get a roster together before he’s paid


Some of these are bad examples.

Peyton wasn’t planned, lol  
UConn4523 : 3/27/2024 9:57 am : link
their old GM got fired after drafting Tebow didn’t work out. And prior to that Cutler didn’t work out, both 1st round swings. They didn’t punt trying to upgrade QB they kept on doing it and then Peyton fell into their lap after Elway got hired.

Can anyone name a team whose GM waited 3 years for the team to be set before trying to upgrade QB? I can’t think of one.
it really doesn't matter which order you draft players in  
djm : 3/27/2024 10:19 am : link
it comes down to drafting good players. If you draft poor players I don't care which order it is in, it won't work.
One  
Giantsbigblue : 3/27/2024 10:49 am : link
Could argue that both Aikman and Peyton were drafted into situations where they had Hall if Fame receivers on the roster already with both Irvin and Marvin Harrison drafted before them.

There is no 100% logic to this and a lot of it is luck and the right time at the right place.
I am a fan of getting the QB whenever he presents but...  
KraZee : 3/27/2024 2:54 pm : link
my current feeling is the die was cast on what they are doing come draft day when they traded for then paid Burns and let Barkley walk. My sense is the Giants feel they are close to having an elite D with D Lawrence, Thibs, Burns, Okereke, Banks and Pinnock as the core. They will add depth at CB or safety in the later rounds and may even double down early at either Edge or Interior DL in rd 2. I see them trading down in rd 1 a bit to expand their options in this draft (possibly gaining a 2nd in this draft) and will likely be adding to an increasingly interesting WR group with their first pick. This is a strong draft for QB's and WR's. Just a feeling I have given what happened already.
RE: One  
Ten Ton Hammer : 3/27/2024 6:39 pm : link
In comment 16447452 Giantsbigblue said:
Quote:
Could argue that both Aikman and Peyton were drafted into situations where they had Hall if Fame receivers on the roster already with both Irvin and Marvin Harrison drafted before them.

There is no 100% logic to this and a lot of it is luck and the right time at the right place.


There's some value in this, but the cowboys were 3-15 in Irvin's rookie season, and 1-15 in Aikman's rookie season. The cowboys were by no means a "finished roster".
RE: RE: One  
Giantsbigblue : 3/27/2024 9:00 pm : link
In comment 16448081 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
In comment 16447452 Giantsbigblue said:


Quote:


Could argue that both Aikman and Peyton were drafted into situations where they had Hall if Fame receivers on the roster already with both Irvin and Marvin Harrison drafted before them.

There is no 100% logic to this and a lot of it is luck and the right time at the right place.



There's some value in this, but the cowboys were 3-15 in Irvin's rookie season, and 1-15 in Aikman's rookie season. The cowboys were by no means a "finished roster".


Absolutely, the Hershel Walker trade sure helped too. Quarterbacks also took longer to develop back then not coming from a pro style offense in college.
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