It seems inevitable that if Schdabka feel conviction on JJM or Maye or both then they will need to trade up for him which will likely cost us our 2025 1st.
Many are scared of this idea and quite frankly it makes me uneasy too. Look at our past 10 years of first round picks:
2013 Justin Pugh
2014 OBJ
2015 Ereck Flowers
2016 Eli Apple
2017 Evan Engram
2018 Saquon
2019 DJ + Dexy + DeAndre Baker
2020 Andrew Thomas
2021 Kadarius Toney
2022 Kayvon and Neal
2023 Deonte Banks
I count 6-7 that you could call busts to disappointments. 8 were on the team 5 years or less. 3 reached pro bowl status with us. Why have any fear about taking a shot at a franchise QB with this in mind? If we hit a homerun the franchise will be competitive for the next 10-15 years after 10+ years of bottom-dwelling. What is there to lose really? A 1/3 chance at greatness on the other picks vs a chance at redeeming ourselves a contender in the NFL. I know what I would do.
You either believe Schoen knows what he's doing or not. If the odds of Schoen picking a bust are equal to late era Reese or Gettleman, those low odds apply to the quarterback he scouts and picks.
If you believe Schoen is better at this than his predecessors, then his odds of picking a good player are better, quarterback or not.
What I am against is a massive move up for any of these QBs given the enormous amount of draft capital we would have to surrender. Massive move ups have a very high failure rate, and Maye, Daniels, and JJM have too many questions IMO to warrant such a move given the cost. Prior draft failures are irrelevant. The answer to that is simple: draft better players.
But if Schoen makes such a move and the QB does turn out to be a franchise player, I will admit I was wrong, at least in that instance. If he makes such a move and the QB turns out to be Sam Darnold, I will call for him to be fired.
At this point, I have no idea what will happen, and I don't think anyone else does either. But I do think NE is most likely to stay at #3 and draft a QB. Trading with us might cause them to miss out on all four of the QBs since there is a real risk that Minnesota would jump to #4 or #5. I'm not sure that is a risk they want to take unless Schoen offers a lot more than #47 and our #1 next year.
Based on the "QB Nuggets" thread, AZ might be willing to trade with us, but we'd still have to compete with Minnesota, who might be willing to offer #11, #23, and their #1 and #3 next year. At that point, even #47 might not be enough to get to #4, or #5.
You either believe Schoen knows what he's doing or not. If the odds of Schoen picking a bust are equal to late era Reese or Gettleman, those low odds apply to the quarterback he scouts and picks.
If you believe Schoen is better at this than his predecessors, then his odds of picking a good player are better, quarterback or not.
That is true, I think Schoen is a good GM. He is 2/3 with 1 still a big question mark in his 1st round picks so far. I still think the draft is a crapshoot and I'd rather trade 2 crapshoot rolls for one big bet which if it hits then we are good for the next decade+. I agree with you though, Reese lost it at the end and Gettleman was Gettleman. The sentiment remains the same though, the draft is a crapshoot and if you can put two 1sts together for a chance at making the franchise a contender again for the foreseeable future I would do it everytime.
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Because until you get the QB right, it's not even a crapshoot. It's just crap.
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This swing could change the course of our entire franchise for the better. No other position can do that in the crapshoot of the draft. I take that bet everytime.
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But it's not.
Were you opposed to the swings we gave up to get Eli Manning?
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In comment 16446852 George from PA said:
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But it's not.
Were you opposed to the swings we gave up to get Eli Manning?
Or the Bills with Allen or Chiefs for Mahomes?
Such a tired and lazy line of thinking
In craps you have the same chance of rolling 7 every time assuming normal dice.
The draft is much closer to a hand of poker. Sometimes even AA gets beat, but your odds are better with AA than J4. Now you can't trade up into a better hand in poker, but that's essentially what the Giants would be doing. That's why they meet with these players and study them and so on. It's much much more than just a roll of the dice
If Schoen is a good talent evaluator, he's more likely to make a good decision at 6 , 3, or 11.
If they're down to chance, might as well bring Rabbit Foot Dave back in and let him roll the dice.
To essentially get the #1 pick we gave up (Move up 3 spots)
-Our 1st round pick, the #4 pick (Phillip Rivers)
-Our 3rd round pick
-Next year's 1st round pick
-Next year's 5th round pick
If the compensation is similar to move from 6 to 3 with Maye or Daniels on the board, sign me up. Admittedly, I'd feel better about it if we had a decent #1 receiver for said QB to throw to first but odds do seem much higher in this draft for a QB than most others I've seen. Eli Manning didn't have his #1 WR his first year. We got Burress via free agency the following year.
This.
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Such a tired and lazy line of thinking
In craps you have the same chance of rolling 7 every time assuming normal dice.
The draft is much closer to a hand of poker. Sometimes even AA gets beat, but your odds are better with AA than J4. Now you can't trade up into a better hand in poker, but that's essentially what the Giants would be doing. That's why they meet with these players and study them and so on. It's much much more than just a roll of the dice
Good analogy and very true imo
That's very true and a good point as well.
And if they stand pat, the QB falls to them, and he is never better than Jones, in hindsightpeople will be pissed we reached for a QB.
THe bottom line is, if they have a strong conviction that one of these guys is elite, do what it takes and get him. Just dont force QB for the sake of getting a QB.
At the end of the day, does anyone feel differently than that simpe summary?
I'd rather be emotionally invested and ride the Rollercoaster. That's part of being a fan to me. If we don't get a QB and they decide to trade down or take a WR I will support that and believe in it still because I have confidence in our front office for the first time in a long while.
If Schoen is a good talent evaluator, he's more likely to make a good decision at 6 , 3, or 11.
If they're down to chance, might as well bring Rabbit Foot Dave back in and let him roll the dice.
Well said.
When folks make statements about the the draft being a crap-shoot or bring up Chase Young / Andrew Thomas, my mind considers it a de facto vote of no confidence in the GM.
Sign me up for whatever Schoen wants to do, no point being against him moving up or down unless you think he’s a moron.
I would like to run the numbers on that myself and see how it came out. Clearly, there is a lot of difference in how the first four quarterbacks are ranked, and that even extends somewhat to the first choice. But if I were convinced that there was no very significant probability of second, third or fourth choice becoming the future Hall of Famer, then I would ask myself whether I should go for the quarterback that I personally believe is the best, or whether I should admit that I am just not good enough to differentiate between the three quarterbacks, and therefore, I will lose nothing if I wait in my sixth position and take which ever one of them falls to me.
I would hate to give up that second and first round draft, pick knowing that we are only one impact player away on defense from becoming a top 10 defense. And having a good defense is a help to the offense and the young quarterback, not having to spend as much time on the field, and then getting a shorter field to work with.
And to those saying good GM's hit on 1st round picks more often than no, which I agree with, say they hit on 2 1st rounders vs hitting on 1 QB tradeup. Would you trade a great wr and great cb for a great QB? I know I would.
I would like to run the numbers on that myself and see how it came out. Clearly, there is a lot of difference in how the first four quarterbacks are ranked, and that even extends somewhat to the first choice. But if I were convinced that there was no very significant probability of second, third or fourth choice becoming the future Hall of Famer, then I would ask myself whether I should go for the quarterback that I personally believe is the best, or whether I should admit that I am just not good enough to differentiate between the three quarterbacks, and therefore, I will lose nothing if I wait in my sixth position and take which ever one of them falls to me.
I would hate to give up that second and first round draft, pick knowing that we are only one impact player away on defense from becoming a top 10 defense. And having a good defense is a help to the offense and the young quarterback, not having to spend as much time on the field, and then getting a shorter field to work with.
The problem in this great qb draft is it's very unlikely any of the big 4 QBs make it to pick 6 if we sit like that. They trade up for a QB in whom they have conviction and they hit on it and then we can finish building the defense, ol and offensive skill positions. If can't make a move for a QB they love, then sure bps at 6 or trade down. QB is the priority though.
....scared....lol....no one's scared. We just don't think it's wise to trade 4 draft picks and a couple players for a savior when you already need WR, TE, OL, RB, DT, CB, SS etc. It's fucking stupid. Lol, scared my ass.
To essentially get the #1 pick we gave up (Move up 3 spots)
-Our 1st round pick, the #4 pick (Phillip Rivers)
-Our 3rd round pick
-Next year's 1st round pick
-Next year's 5th round pick
If the compensation is similar to move from 6 to 3 with Maye or Daniels on the board, sign me up. Admittedly, I'd feel better about it if we had a decent #1 receiver for said QB to throw to first but odds do seem much higher in this draft for a QB than most others I've seen. Eli Manning didn't have his #1 WR his first year. We got Burress via free agency the following year.
Was Rivers that much worse than Eli?
So, just continue to stay less than mediocre and not even take a chance to get better?
That’s a loser mentality.
Because about this time last year, he failed his first big test by re-investing in Jones.
So, that's what this boils down to, really. Do you trust Schoen to solve this major problem we have at QB?
I think we're at a "kitchen sink" moment in that we have to be bold and throw it in to get our QB.
Because about this time last year, he failed his first big test by re-investing in Jones.
So, that's what this boils down to, really. Do you trust Schoen to solve this major problem we have at QB?
I think we're at a "kitchen sink" moment in that we have to be bold and throw it in to get our QB.
That's what I think too, if we got 6 wins which could have easily been 9 last year with all the injuries, udfa qb etc. Then I don't see us having a top 10 pick for a while, next years qb class is looking below average to average. It's time to take a big swing and do whatever it takes. If it doesn't work out then so be it, but this is the time to take the swing when we have a pitch in the sweet spot with this great qb class.
....scared....lol....no one's scared. We just don't think it's wise to trade 4 draft picks and a couple players for a savior when you already need WR, TE, OL, RB, DT, CB, SS etc. It's fucking stupid. Lol, scared my ass.
Ok Mayne scared wasn't the best word. How about leery?
So, no...I did not mind trading for Eli. It was costly...and obviously worth it.
Personally, I doubt we have the best QB class of all time. 3 QBs drafted in Top 5 is a record...we are looking at 4 QBs in top 6....and the Giants are picking 4th. I do not like those odds.....let alone throwing in more picks....keep them in 2024...ok.
And
The Giants made several moves to improve OL. Improve defense...and they will be assured the best WR the Giants roster and possibly the best WR they ever had.
Let Daboll do his magic with Drew Lock....give Jones on last shot....
For McCarthy…absolutely not.
Maye is on the same tier as Nabers, Odunze. He’s a blue chip. To me at least. McCarthy is nowhere near blue chip status. The tape doesn’t lie.
As for being scared ... it isn't about being scared. It is about being smart and responsible with your picks. We all know that all the top teams in the NFL draft well. The only team recently that hasn't is the Rams. They've traded premium picks for premium players and were pretty damn bad at drafting. They kept kicking the can down the road. It worked for them for a short period of time but it wasn't sustainable. They would up drafting well last year and we saw the benefits. There is a thought process by too many fans that great players only can be acquired by trading up. That's not true at all. Every year all we hear is that there are X good players but our pick is X + 1. It's ridiculous.
Not triggering. You're just wrong.
I see one bust who still helped a team win a SB (Toney)
Then I see a lot of players who had real careers often with other teams. Few stars but definitely not busts. Eli Apple, Justin Pugh, Evan Engram, even Eric Flowers.
I have no problem with trading up for a QB, but this list highlights the value of high picks. Try looking at the same list for 3rd rounders.
I think it's worth considering if that's the symptom or the problem.
Said in another way, imagine if the same characters were in charge of selecting and developing the players and they didn't pick QBs on round one.
Do you think they the alternative players they picked would have worked out? Do you think they would have found successful quarterbacks through other means?
Meaningless wins cost them Dexter Lawrence.
Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson were both 2nd choices at their respective positions.
But, if we strike out, we've dug ourselves a hole that will guarantee mediocrity this year and for many years after.
We're not "one player away from being a contender." It's trite but true, "Don't put the cart before the horse."
You could tell Aikman was great in his very first game. However, he lost that game as well as all 11 games he played in as a Dallas rookie.
Even the very good GMs make decisions. Lynch traded 3 first round picks for Lance. Galactically bad decision in the abstract. But he's a great talent evaluator so that didn't set the team back in the ways the Darnold and Wilson seemingly did to the Jets.
But, if we strike out, we've dug ourselves a hole that will guarantee mediocrity this year and for many years after.
We're not "one player away from being a contender." It's trite but true, "Don't put the cart before the horse."
It will only guarantee mediocrity "for many years after" if you continue to stick with said QB for 5-7 years. You know what you have within 3 years. If he's not the guy, you move on. It would result in shitty football for 2 years and by year 3 you have entire allotment of draft picks back and continue to look for the answer at QB.
Reese was terrible for over half his time as GM. Dave did little to rectify that. Schoen is TBD but not looking very good imv. Neal could be a huge miss at a top 10 pick. Impact players on your fronts wins SB's. Giants have been poor after round 2 for almost fifteen years. Round 2 picks fell off a lot as well. If you miss on a premium pick then make it up with a later pick.
The quality of starters is what matters. Giant need more of those quality starters with some being high impact players.