ESPN Insider Matt Miller: NY Giants 7-Round Mock Draft

I know there are questions and warts on Penix, but there is some serious Burrow/Chase potential with those first two picks.

But Penix isn't making it to 47.

narrative with these more recent mock drafts have the Pats trading out of 3. The lazy move is obviously penning in the Vikes for the trade up but if 3 is available I don't see how the Giants aren't the ones trading up over the Vikings.

someone takes a chance on Penix in the 1st. I am thinking Tampa or Dallas. Possibly the Rams.

If he gets past both of those teams, I think we have to think about jumping ATL in the 2nd round to get him. We may have to jump them by a significant amount because New Orleans and Vegas might be thinking the same thing.

Penix lasts that long. I hope I’m wrong, he’s my favorite of the tier 2 QB’s.

I've seen Penix going in round 3 in some places.

In comment 16447676 Go Terps said:

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I've seen Penix going in round 3 in some places.

After you get past the Top 4 I could see QB's slipping (or not) and it will depend on the individual teams. Why reach for a Nix or Penix when you could get someone like Michael Pratt rounds later? That is sort of like the WR crop where I think good guys (after Harrison, Odunze, Nabers) will slip because teams won't see the need to draft them where they should be drafted because they can get a comparable player later whereas the gap at other positions will be larger. For example, the EDGE crop looks very top heavy (once you get past Kneeland it falls off a lot even if there are many names)

if the giants took a guy like Penix given his injury history and the situation with Daniel.

In comment 16447705 LW_Giants said:

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if the giants took a guy like Penix given his injury history and the situation with Daniel.

Apples to oranges comparison.

Malik Nabers going ahead of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the Giants ending up with the guy from Ohio State.

In comment 16447711 Tim in Eternal Blue said:

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In comment 16447705 LW_Giants said: Quote: if the giants took a guy like Penix given his injury history and the situation with Daniel. Apples to oranges comparison.

Sorry, my comment was ambiguous. I don't mean it's the same or a similar injury (neck related). I meant that the Giants seem to have settled on the narrative that Daniel is great but his injury history may force them to move on. Hard to use that line when the guy you're moving on from also has an extensive injury history.

Nabers then Penix is a dream scenario.

doesn't compute, both have lengthy and significant injury histories. Steer clear of Penix.

I would not be disappointed with this draft if it were to happen.

basically as low risk as it gets. Can just draft someone next year or the year after if none of it works well.

It's also an inconsistent approach after sharing in the media you're beginning the process of moving on from Jones, largely factoring in the injuries.

if that report (over a month ago), that they have Nix rated very high, is true, then a move down to 6 (where they can still draft Nix), is highly likely. They would likely get 47 and next year's first, and they can do some stuff with that.
They've said Brissett "could" get them through this season (putting QB on the menu for next year with TWO number 1s in their back pocket).

but if he would grade out as a 1st rounder with a clean medical history than 47 is a pretty reasonable asset for starting QB upside if he can stay healthy. I’m happy to gamble a mid 2 for that upside. The downside is it just doesn’t out and you aren’t out all that much and then Jones is off the books.

In comment 16447778 JonC said:

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It's also an inconsistent approach after sharing in the media you're beginning the process of moving on from Jones, largely factoring in the injuries.

Penix's arm talent is plus, but unfortunately he can't undue the two ACL surgeries on the same right knee.

.

In comment 16447788 Dave on the UWS said:

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if that report (over a month ago), that they have Nix rated very high, is true, then a move down to 6 (where they can still draft Nix), is highly likely. They would likely get 47 and next year's first, and they can do some stuff with that. They've said Brissett "could" get them through this season (putting QB on the menu for next year with TWO number 1s in their back pocket).

Nix to NE also makes sense because NE with Van Pelt and McAdoo will be running a west-coast type offense. Nix and Daniels both seem to be more West-Coast friendly QBs.

I'd mention a couple things though:

1. Penix threw the most passes in the NCAA the last two years and didn't miss time; this includes the beating he took against Michigan
2. The medicals reportedly came back clear at the Combine
3. He has the lowest pressure/sack rate of any QB since 2014, and it's the lowest by miles.
4. Penix's game figures to expose him to fewer hits than the other QBs in this class.



The guy gets the ball out of his hands as well as anyone. And he's not doing it just to dump the ball off.

Matt Waldman recently said he's got Penix's floor ("his absolute worst") as a low-end starter (for scale on this comment, he says he could see McCarthy as Zach Wilson and Maye as flaming out completely). Kurt Warner also recently sounded higher on Penix than he did Williams, Maye, or Daniels. Those are just two other opinions and nothing more, of course.

so he gets a 5th-year option.

as anyone about his injury history but at 47 with his talent I take the risk

In comment 16447791 UConn4523 said:

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but if he would grade out as a 1st rounder with a clean medical history than 47 is a pretty reasonable asset for starting QB upside if he can stay healthy. I’m happy to gamble a mid 2 for that upside. The downside is it just doesn’t out and you aren’t out all that much and then Jones is off the books.

Ack.

Terps, I think Penix and his release/throwing motion are going to work against him in the NFL. Despite being immensely productive in college, he's got some mechanical issues including footwork and pocket awareness that need a lot of improvement too.

However the fact he isn't mobile and a lefty doesn't really fit our team. Doesn't mean I don't take him 47... 100% I do.

In comment 16447800 Go Terps said:

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I'd mention a couple things though: 1. Penix threw the most passes in the NCAA the last two years and didn't miss time; this includes the beating he took against Michigan 2. The medicals reportedly came back clear at the Combine 3. He has the lowest pressure/sack rate of any QB since 2014, and it's the lowest by miles. 4. Penix's game figures to expose him to fewer hits than the other QBs in this class. The guy gets the ball out of his hands as well as anyone. And he's not doing it just to dump the ball off. Matt Waldman recently said he's got Penix's floor ("his absolute worst") as a low-end starter (for scale on this comment, he says he could see McCarthy as Zach Wilson and Maye as flaming out completely). Kurt Warner also recently sounded higher on Penix than he did Williams, Maye, or Daniels. Those are just two other opinions and nothing more, of course.

All good points, notably #1. The guy hasn't missed time in 2 full seasons. Is he really any more of a risk than any other QB? If he was fresh off injury I'd still be open to taking a shot but it's been 2 full healthy seasons now. I am sold.

is the lack of mobility. And if you're guessing on the type of QB Daboll and Schoen want, it would seem to be the mobile QB. They coached up and loved Allen. They coached up and re-signed Jones. Had Tyrod Taylor as the backup. These guys certainly seem to prefer the mobile QB and whispers (FWIW) indicate they love Daniels from this draft.

In comment 16447812 JonC said:

Quote:

In comment 16447791 UConn4523 said: Quote: but if he would grade out as a 1st rounder with a clean medical history than 47 is a pretty reasonable asset for starting QB upside if he can stay healthy. I’m happy to gamble a mid 2 for that upside. The downside is it just doesn’t out and you aren’t out all that much and then Jones is off the books. Ack. Terps, I think Penix and his release/throwing motion are going to work against him in the NFL. Despite being immensely productive in college, he's got some mechanical issues including footwork and pocket awareness that need a lot of improvement too.

I used to be a big mechanics guy, wanting everyone to look like Troy Aikman when they threw. But would we teach anyone to throw like Mahomes or Rodgers? Granted, those guys are aliens, but what about Phil Rivers? I was certain he'd flop with that shotput delivery, but it worked.

I thought Penix was the best thrower I saw this year AND last year. Kurt Warner looked at this quite a bit in what was a good 45 minute breakdown. He said that yes, his feet aren't always aligned with his arm - but the results speak for themselves. Warner was very complimentary.

I've gone back and forth. My eyes told me Penix was really good and some smart people like him, but some other smart people don't. I'll be fascinated to see how it goes for him.

In comment 16447827 Go Terps said:

Quote:

In comment 16447812 JonC said: Quote: In comment 16447791 UConn4523 said: Quote: but if he would grade out as a 1st rounder with a clean medical history than 47 is a pretty reasonable asset for starting QB upside if he can stay healthy. I’m happy to gamble a mid 2 for that upside. The downside is it just doesn’t out and you aren’t out all that much and then Jones is off the books. Ack. Terps, I think Penix and his release/throwing motion are going to work against him in the NFL. Despite being immensely productive in college, he's got some mechanical issues including footwork and pocket awareness that need a lot of improvement too. I used to be a big mechanics guy, wanting everyone to look like Troy Aikman when they threw. But would we teach anyone to throw like Mahomes or Rodgers? Granted, those guys are aliens, but what about Phil Rivers? I was certain he'd flop with that shotput delivery, but it worked. I thought Penix was the best thrower I saw this year AND last year. Kurt Warner looked at this quite a bit in what was a good 45 minute breakdown. He said that yes, his feet aren't always aligned with his arm - but the results speak for themselves. Warner was very complimentary. I've gone back and forth. My eyes told me Penix was really good and some smart people like him, but some other smart people don't. I'll be fascinated to see how it goes for him.

Two things in the NFL are always hard to project 1) the SPEED of the game, and how a QB transitions into it and 2) the danger of a pass rush and being able to perform under pressure.

I suspect the former will give Penix trouble, and the latter is something that often wrecked him at UW.

The lack of mobility and being left-handed are two more factors that work against him. Definitely a mega fun college QB to watch, especially when he got hot because he can drop it in the basket like few can.

If Penix is as good as many here, and several highly qualified draft writers believe there is a very high chance he gets drafted in the 1st round. The NFL teams are determined to get the 5th year flexibility of cap certainty.

Historically, the % of QBs that succeed after being drafted in rounds 2 on are very low....here's the last 14 years worth of drafted QBs....I count 6 2nd round or later that were good starters (my apologies for the formatting):

1 1 Bryce Young Panthers Alabama
2 1 2 2 C.J. Stroud Texans Ohio State
3 1 4 4 Anthony Richardson Colts Florida
4 2 2 33 Will Levis Titans Kentucky
5 3 5 68 Hendon Hooker Lions Tennessee
6 4 25 127 Jake Haener Saints Fresno State
7 4 26 128 Stetson Bennett Rams Georgia
8 4 33 135 Aidan O'Connell Raiders Purdue
9 5 4 139 Clayton Tune Cardinals Houston
10 5 5 140 Dorian Thompson-Robinson Browns UCLA
11 5 14 149 Sean Clifford Packers Penn State
12 5 29 164 Jaren Hall Vikings Brigham Young
13 6 11 188 Tanner McKee Eagles Stanford
14 7 22 239 Max Duggan Chargers Texas Christian
2022 1 1 20 20 Kenny Pickett Steelers Pittsburgh
2 3 10 74 Desmond Ridder Falcons Cincinnati
3 3 22 86 Malik Willis Titans Liberty
4 3 30 94 Matt Corral Panthers Mississippi
5 4 32 137 Bailey Zappe Patriots Western Kentucky
6 5 1 144 Sam Howell Commanders North Carolina
7 7 20 241 Chris Oladokun Steelers South Dakota State
8 7 26 247 Skylar Thompson Dolphins Kansas State
9 7 41 262 Brock Purdy 49ers Iowa State
2021 1 1 1 1 Trevor Lawrence Jaguars Clemson
2 1 2 2 Zach Wilson Jets Brigham Young
3 1 3 3 Trey Lance 49ers North Dakota State
4 1 11 11 Justin Fields Bears Ohio State
5 1 15 15 Mac Jones Patriots Alabama
6 2 32 64 Kyle Trask Buccaneers Florida
7 3 2 66 Kellen Mond Vikings Texas A&M
8 3 3 67 Davis Mills Texans Stanford
9 4 28 133 Ian Book Saints Notre Dame
10 6 34 218 Sam Ehlinger Colts Texas
2020 1 1 1 1 Joe Burrow Bengals Louisiana State
2 1 5 5 Tua Tagovailoa Dolphins Alabama
3 1 6 6 Justin Herbert Chargers Oregon
4 1 26 26 Jordan Love Packers Utah State
5 2 21 53 Jalen Hurts Eagles Oklahoma
6 4 16 122 Jacob Eason Colts Washington
7 4 19 125 James Morgan Jets Florida International
8 5 21 167 Jake Fromm Bills Georgia
9 6 10 189 Jake Luton Jaguars Oregon State
10 7 10 224 Cole McDonald Titans Hawaii
11 7 17 231 Ben DiNucci Cowboys James Madison
12 7 26 240 Tommy Stevens Saints Mississippi State
13 7 30 244 Nate Stanley Vikings Iowa
2019 1 1 1 1 Kyler Murray Cardinals Oklahoma
2 1 6 6 Daniel Jones Giants Duke
3 1 15 15 Dwayne Haskins Redskins Ohio State
4 2 10 42 Drew Lock Broncos Missouri
5 3 36 100 Will Grier Panthers West Virginia
6 4 2 104 Ryan Finley Bengals North Carolina State
7 4 31 133 Jarrett Stidham Patriots Auburn
8 5 28 166 Easton Stick Chargers North Dakota State
9 5 29 167 Clayton Thorson Eagles Northwestern
10 6 5 178 Gardner Minshew Jaguars Washington State
11 6 24 197 Trace McSorley Ravens Penn State
2018 1 1 1 1 Baker Mayfield Browns Oklahoma
2 1 3 3 Sam Darnold Jets USC
3 1 7 7 Josh Allen Bills Wyoming
4 1 10 10 Josh Rosen Cardinals UCLA
5 1 32 32 Lamar Jackson Ravens Louisville
6 3 12 76 Mason Rudolph Steelers Oklahoma State
7 4 8 108 Kyle Lauletta Giants Richmond
8 5 34 171 Mike White Cowboys Western Kentucky
9 6 25 199 Luke Falk Titans Washington State
10 6 29 203 Tanner Lee Jaguars Nebraska
11 7 1 219 Danny Etling Patriots Louisiana State
12 7 2 220 Alex McGough Seahawks Florida International
13 7 31 249 Logan Woodside Bengals Toledo
2017 1 1 2 2 Mitchell Trubisky Bears North Carolina
2 1 10 10 Patrick Mahomes Chiefs Texas Tech
3 1 12 12 Deshaun Watson Texans Clemson
4 2 20 52 DeShone Kizer Browns Notre Dame
5 3 23 87 Davis Webb Giants California
6 3 40 104 C.J. Beathard 49ers Iowa
7 4 29 135 Joshua Dobbs Steelers Tennessee
8 5 28 171 Nathan Peterman Bills Pittsburgh
9 6 32 215 Brad Kaaya Lions Miami (FL)
10 7 35 253 Chad Kelly Broncos Mississippi
2016 1 1 1 1 Jared Goff Rams California
2 1 2 2 Carson Wentz Eagles North Dakota State
3 1 26 26 Paxton Lynch Broncos Memphis
4 2 20 51 Christian Hackenberg Jets Penn State
5 3 29 91 Jacoby Brissett Patriots North Carolina State
6 3 31 93 Cody Kessler Browns USC
7 4 2 100 Connor Cook Raiders Michigan State
8 4 37 135 Dak Prescott Cowboys Mississippi State
9 4 41 139 Cardale Jones Bills Ohio State
10 5 25 162 Kevin Hogan Chiefs Stanford
11 6 12 187 Nate Sudfeld Redskins Indiana
12 6 16 191 Jake Rudock Lions Michigan
13 6 26 201 Brandon Allen Jaguars Arkansas
14 6 32 207 Jeff Driskel 49ers Louisiana Tech
15 7 2 223 Brandon Doughty Dolphins Western Kentucky
2015 1 1 1 1 Jameis Winston Buccaneers Florida State
2 1 2 2 Marcus Mariota Titans Oregon
3 3 11 75 Garrett Grayson Saints Colorado State
4 3 25 89 Sean Mannion Rams Oregon State
5 4 4 103 Bryce Petty Jets Baylor
6 5 11 147 Brett Hundley Packers UCLA
7 7 33 250 Trevor Siemian Broncos Northwestern
2014 1 1 3 3 Blake Bortles Jaguars Central Florida
2 1 22 22 Johnny Manziel Browns Texas A&M
3 1 32 32 Teddy Bridgewater Vikings Louisville
4 2 4 36 Derek Carr Raiders Fresno State
5 2 30 62 Jimmy Garoppolo Patriots Eastern Illinois
6 4 20 120 Logan Thomas Cardinals Virginia Tech
7 4 35 135 Tom Savage Texans Pittsburgh
8 5 23 163 Aaron Murray Chiefs Georgia
9 5 24 164 A.J. McCarron Bengals Alabama
10 6 2 178 Zach Mettenberger Titans Louisiana State
11 6 7 183 David Fales Bears San Jose State
12 6 18 194 Keith Wenning Ravens Ball State
13 6 37 213 Tajh Boyd Jets Clemson
14 6 38 214 Garrett Gilbert Rams Southern Methodist
2013 1 1 16 16 EJ Manuel Bills Florida State
2 2 7 39 Geno Smith Jets West Virginia
3 3 11 73 Mike Glennon Buccaneers North Carolina State
4 4 1 98 Matt Barkley Eagles USC
5 4 13 110 Ryan Nassib Giants Syracuse
6 4 15 112 Tyler Wilson Raiders Arkansas
7 4 18 115 Landry Jones Steelers Oklahoma
8 7 15 221 Brad Sorensen Chargers Southern Utah
9 7 28 234 Zac Dysert Broncos Miami (OH)
10 7 31 237 B.J. Daniels 49ers South Florida
11 7 43 249 Sean Renfree Falcons Duke
2012 1 1 1 1 Andrew Luck Colts Stanford
2 1 2 2 Robert Griffin Redskins Baylor
3 1 8 8 Ryan Tannehill Dolphins Texas A&M
4 1 22 22 Brandon Weeden Browns Oklahoma State
5 2 25 57 Brock Osweiler Broncos Arizona State
6 3 12 75 Russell Wilson Seahawks Wisconsin
7 3 25 88 Nick Foles Eagles Arizona
8 4 7 102 Kirk Cousins Redskins Michigan State
9 6 15 185 Ryan Lindley Cardinals San Diego State
10 7 36 243 B.J. Coleman Packers Tennessee-Chattanooga
11 7 46 253 Chandler Harnish Colts Northern Illinois
2011s 1 3 0 0 Terrelle Pryor Raiders Ohio State
2011 1 1 1 1 Cam Newton Panthers Auburn
2 1 8 8 Jake Locker Titans Washington
3 1 10 10 Blaine Gabbert Jaguars Missouri
4 1 12 12 Christian Ponder Vikings Florida State
5 2 3 35 Andy Dalton Bengals Texas Christian
6 2 4 36 Colin Kaepernick 49ers Nevada
7 3 10 74 Ryan Mallett Patriots Arkansas
8 5 4 135 Ricky Stanzi Chiefs Iowa
9 5 21 152 T.J. Yates Texans North Carolina
10 5 29 160 Nathan Enderle Bears Idaho
11 6 15 180 Tyrod Taylor Ravens Virginia Tech
12 7 5 208 Greg McElroy Jets Alabama
2010 1 1 1 1 Sam Bradford Rams Oklahoma
2 1 25 25 Tim Tebow Broncos Florida
3 2 16 48 Jimmy Clausen Panthers Notre Dame
4 3 21 85 Colt McCoy Browns Texas
5 4 24 122 Mike Kafka Eagles Northwestern
6 5 24 155 John Skelton Cardinals Fordham
7 5 37 168 Jonathan Crompton Chargers Tennessee
8 6 7 176 Rusty Smith Titans Florida Atlantic
9 6 12 181 Dan LeFevour Bears Central Michigan
10 6 30 199 Joe Webb Vikings Alabama-Birmingham
11 6 35 204 Tony Pike Panthers Cincinnati
12 7 2 209 Levi Brown Bills Troy
13 7 32 239 Sean Canfield Saints Oregon State
14 7 43 250 Zac Robinson

with Pick 23, if they haven't moved up to the Top 5

I'd be thrilled. I prefer QB at 6, but it would be a run to the podium pick at 47 if NYG goes WR in the first.

Minimal risk at that point and nothing would stop them from drafting QB next year. He also would probably be the best QB on the team immediately.

in the 2nd round than give up draft capital to get either JJM, or Maye at the top of the 1st. Penix is an injury risk but it's not a neck injury which could be career ending. The issue with Penix is composure in the pocket and I agree that this could be a concern.

I have heard the debates about whether McCarthy is a top tier QB or whether Maye is going to be ready to contribute. No such debate about the top 3 WRs. Giants just cannot reach any more at the top of the draft.

Penix lasts to 47. It's incredible Matt Miller has a job doing this...

We know he is rarely sacked when pressured (about 6% of the time), so is he chucking and ducking? If he were wouldn't his completion percentage and Y/A be down?

2023 completion % and Y/A

Williams 68.6 9.4
Daniels 72.2 11.7
Maye 63.3 8.5
McCarthy 72.3 9.0
Nix 77.4 9.0
Penix 65.4 8.8

So Penix is right there with everyone else in completion percentage and Y/A, and he gets sacked much less than the other guys.

So what am I missing? Where is the issue with pocket presence?

In comment 16448054 Go Terps said:

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We know he is rarely sacked when pressured (about 6% of the time), so is he chucking and ducking? If he were wouldn't his completion percentage and Y/A be down? So Penix is right there with everyone else in completion percentage and Y/A, and he gets sacked much less than the other guys. So what am I missing? Where is the issue with pocket presence?

You're not missing anything because it's a bogus claim. He's as good at moving around in the pocket as the BBI golden boy McCarthy. And I'm not much of a Penix issue.

PFF rated him 6th overall as a passer. Ahead of Maye (7th) and McCarthy (11th).

I just don't trust Penix off script at the next level. That's my knock on him. Unless you are a pocket savant like Brady, you just need a QB who can move the chains w/off-script passing and on the run.