Hola suckas! Opening Day is tomorrow (was supposed to be today). Many thanks to our long-time posters who ran the threads for this off-season (DMM, Eric in Li, GF1080, etc.). Here's a link to our last off-season thread below:
NFT: Mets Spring Training Thread - DanMetroMan - 2/12/2024 - 10:42 am
It's still going strong. Let's continue to add to it and check it out. The regulars are there, but some of the non0regulars might wanna check it out. Our man Dan is doing yeoman's work over there, so please check it out.
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This is just a quick share your predictions for the season thread. We can refer back to it posterity, so we can laugh at ourselves and each other and the ridiculous things that'll be said here in a few months, haha! Feel free to do this quickie style or be as long-winded as you'd like. Whatever floats your boat! It'll be fun to refer to in the summer time or at the end of the year.
Give your predictions for:
-The team's W-L record
-Playoffs/No Playoffs
If you wanna add what what you'd like to see and what you think will happen go ahead too. What'll constitute a successful season for the organization in your opinion? Etc.
The Opening Day roster for tomorrow has been set:
New York Mets @Mets - 12:10 PM · Mar 28, 2024
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YOUR 2024 NEW YORK METS - Posted by David Melendi | Mar 28, 2024 - MetsMerizedOnline.com
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We'll just have to sit back and watch all the other teams across MLB play today...
Credit to
Metsmerized Online @Metsmerized for this one (10:22 AM · Mar 28, 2024·)
Discuss...
P.S. I'll start a game thread tomorrow about an hour and a half to two hours before the start of the game. We know who the starters are for all three games for both the Mets & Brew Crew. Will wait to get the lineups hopefully and then start the thread.
Great point, as usual, Dan.
The weather is fine today they could have played.
With what was predicted I don't think they wanted to chance it especially since it could just as easily be played tomorrow. Last thing they wanted was for it to be 3-4 innings then a long rain delay forcing all of the bullpen to be used.
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I'll go 84-87 wins. I know a range is a cop out. The lineup should be very good and the pen looks improved and has some more depth than last year. The AAA arms can hopefully supplement the rotation as the year goes on as needed. Gilbert will come up and replace Marte if he still looks shot. D is greatly improved. Improvements from Alvarez and Baty can make this lineup strong throughout. Stearns can make a trade to bolster team further around deadline if needed.
The weather is fine today they could have played.
With what was predicted I don't think they wanted to chance it especially since it could just as easily be played tomorrow. Last thing they wanted was for it to be 3-4 innings then a long rain delay forcing all of the bullpen to be used.
I understand but still sucks.
Quote:
last time there were more than 6 teams in the NL who won more than 87 games was 2018, prior to that 2011. So if they win 87 games they have to feel pretty damn good about their playoff chances.
Great point, as usual, Dan.
Mets luck this is a 2011 or 2018 situation haha but I tend to doubt it. This looks like a season with 2 "elite" teams, a tier 2 including (on paper at least) Arizona/Phillies and then a TON of similar caliber teams
Reds, Brewers, Mets, Miami, Giants, SD, St. Louis, Cubs, even the Pirates could be decent. Obviously, some of these teams will disappoint, some will be better than expected but Atlanta and LAD should win 100ish games but it doesn't look to be a season (on paper) with a lot of bad teams and inflated W/L totals. Only really bad NL teams figure to be the Rockies and Nationals (at least on paper).
Will not be a season of any great streaks. In fact, longest win streak will be 5, longest losing streak will, be 3. That kind of season can truly feel like a grind, and I think it will be.
They won't ever be close enough to the top to worry about it, but we'll be watching the "overall standings" daily starting in July.
Mets add an expiring contract veteran SP later, as well as a BP arm and a veteran bench presence.
Mets get a series win, then fizzle in the second round. It's a good season of progress for the young kids. A couple pitchers we didn't consider emerge. Sights set very high heading into the off-season.
Book it.
The weather is fine today they could have played.
Not a cop out at all GF. I probably should have mentioned that, but was afraid people would be less likely to post if it wasn't simple and rapid-fire. My range for wins is from 81 to 87.
I went with the bottom number because I have too many doubts about the starting lineup, the depth of the bullpen, Marte and Baty. If ANY of those are better than I expect, then I can see us contending for a playoff spot (which ain't really saying much, but it is what it is).
Arizona made the WS last year as the #6 seed. I don't expect that and think that Arizona team was better than a lot of people gave them credit for. This club is in reset mode and is setting the table for the next two years.
The rotation just looks truly wretched to me and there's going to be a significant number of games where the Mets are down like 5-1 in the 3rd inning a lot of nights. It's pretty much all guys who are double question marks (both performance and health wise). There's some hope at AAA if some of the MLB opening day guys do go down, but it looks like an awful group compared to so many other teams when I try to be objective about it.
Hopefully a couple arms surprise and the lineup rakes and I shorted the team about 7-10 wins. I do think if they surprise Cohen will add significant payroll at the deadline to bolster the rotation.
with JDM the lineup could be meaningfully better than 2022 even if Marte doesn't bounce back. If he does it could be best in baseball.
the defense should definitely be the best in years.
bullpen should be solid and go as high as diaz takes it.
if the rotation were better id feel very confident 90+ even with mendoza an unknown in dugout. i just dont know what to make out of the rotation. been a long time since they had no aces to lean on, even if most of the last few those aces have under delivered.
in 2022 the mets were 5th in runs scored with escobar the most common 5th place hitter behind alonso 4th (vogelbach was most common post-deadline). their catchers were close to worst in baseball. their most common 8/9 hitters were guillorme/nido. JDM and Alvarez could provide substantial upgrades on the 2022 lineup with all the rest of the key top of order players still here (nimmo, marte, lindor, alonso, mcneil).
i dont expect marte to be what he was in 2022, and honestly i dont think it's fair to expect JDM to be as good as he was last year, but if both of those things somehow happened i think this offense would be meaningfully better than 2022. i would not bet on this team or any other reaching their ceiling but this lineup's ceiling is higher than people realize.
the good news is they shouldnt need it often unless there are injuries. a lefty for bader against tough rightes would be ideal so maybe that's dj's role, though taylor could also do that since he doesnt have big splits.
maybe someone to hit for baty vs tough lefties.
nimmo, alvarez, mcneil, lindor, alonso, jdm arent getting pinch hit for so basically leaves marte. if he's hitting so poorly that he's getting pinch hit for i dont think he will be on the roster very long before getting cano'd.
Acuna, Albies, Murphy, Olson, Riley, Ozuna, Harris
The Dodgers have
Betts, Ohtani, Freeman, Smith, Teoscar, Outman, Muncy
It would be truly stunning for the 2024 Mets to have the best offense in baseball
It's not particularly close on paper.
The 2023 Braves scored 947. There just isn't a realistic scenario where the Mets offense will be that kind of dominant lineup. 11 teams scored as many runs as the 2022 Mets in 2023.
@susanslusser
Conforto is the 18th different Giants Opening Day LF in a row.
zips is particularly low on both of the players i mentioned - JDM which i dont agree with (ben clemens doesn't either, he's written 2 articles about it in the last week) and rightfully low on marte. if both of those things happened to go the mets way their offense would end up a lot better than middle of pack.
my point is ceiling, not the probability they reach the ceiling. I am personally expecting that marte is cooked.
Our projections hate J.D. Martinez, and there’s a reason why: He’s 36 and squarely in the back half of his career. Over the past four years, he’s posted a 120 wRC+, which is great but not otherworldly, and he struck out 31.1% of the time in 2023. This kind of general trajectory is what projections feast on; they recognize early and commonly shared signs of decline and then extrapolate from there.
Doubting those projections wouldn’t really count as a bold claim in my book, though, because Martinez is a very good hitter. Also, the way that projections work means that he’ll exceed those numbers roughly 50% of the time even if they’re a good approximation of his true talent. We need to be much bolder than that. So let’s kick it up a notch and imagine how good Martinez could feasibly be.
If he repeats his 2023 season, Martinez will be very good indeed. He was worth 2.2 WAR in only 472 plate appearances. The Dodgers DH position produced 2.7 WAR thanks to a little help from Max Muncy (and Amed Rosario’s hitting .571/.667/.714 in nine DH plate appearances, insert fire emoji here). That was good for fifth in baseball.
Ben Clemens - Five Bold-Ish Predictions for the 2024 Season - ( New Window )
HOUSTON — Another Yankee is injured, though Chase Hampton’s absence won’t directly hurt the big league club.
The organization’s top pitching prospect is recovering from an ulnar collateral ligament sprain, a team spokesperson told the Daily News on Thursday. As a result, the right-hander will start the minor league season on the injured list.
there were 21 players in MLB last year with 98+ rbis. 3 of them were lindor (98), jdm (103), alonso (118).
quick count only 2 teams had more than 2 last year - atlanta had 4, lad has/had 4 counting ohtani instead of jdm, so yes those 2 teams specifically are probably a bridge too far and the literal "best in baseball" is a stretch even if marte turns back the clock but I dont think anyone is expecting this offense to perform better than 2022 when a few credible paths exist where it could.
Nick Martini having a career day
My expectations were so high in 2022 and then again in 2023.
2022 was so much fun in the regular season...until about the last 20 games. But so many great moments.
2023 was as disappointing a season as this long suffering Met fan can remember...on so many different fronts.
So, my hope for 2024 falls into the category of "expect nothing, you'll never be disappointed."
I'll say 81-81 and miss the play-offs.
I think a whole lot has to go right for the Mets to win more than half of their games and even more has to go right to sneak into the play-offs.
Here's what has to go right....
If......
Marte stays healthy, plays 130 games, has a reasonable year..
Their starting pitching, made up of a bunch of back end guys (Houser, Manaea, Megill), have career years..
Severino pitches like it's 2018.
Bader stays healthy and hits a bit and with some power
Alvarez shows consistency in the 6 hole (a lot to ask of a 22 year old)
The big four (Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo) have even good years
Sugar is Sugar
JD Martinez replicates 2023, not 2022
Senga makes 25 plus starts
Baty is still the every day 3rd baseman in August (based on performance, not lack of alternative).....
Then the Mets have a chance to win 84 plus games.
If a few of these things don't materialize, they'll win 78-81
If almost none of these things happen, they'll win 75ish games.
But, 2025 could be fun.
I think Vasil would be the one who's closest (not the best though).
My expectations were so high in 2022 and then again in 2023.
2022 was so much fun in the regular season...until about the last 20 games. But so many great moments.
2023 was as disappointing a season as this long suffering Met fan can remember...on so many different fronts.
So, my hope for 2024 falls into the category of "expect nothing, you'll never be disappointed."
I'll say 81-81 and miss the play-offs.
I think a whole lot has to go right for the Mets to win more than half of their games and even more has to go right to sneak into the play-offs.
Here's what has to go right....
If......
Marte stays healthy, plays 130 games, has a reasonable year..
Their starting pitching, made up of a bunch of back end guys (Houser, Manaea, Megill), have career years..
Severino pitches like it's 2018.
Bader stays healthy and hits a bit and with some power
Alvarez shows consistency in the 6 hole (a lot to ask of a 22 year old)
The big four (Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo) have even good years
Sugar is Sugar
JD Martinez replicates 2023, not 2022
Senga makes 25 plus starts
Baty is still the every day 3rd baseman in August (based on performance, not lack of alternative).....
Then the Mets have a chance to win 84 plus games.
If a few of these things don't materialize, they'll win 78-81
If almost none of these things happen, they'll win 75ish games.
But, 2025 could be fun.
Hiya danny!
De nada compadre. I feel the same exact way as you do. It's a good thing you didn't renew your tickets this year. I think 2025 and 2026 will be worth it though. This is a good year to save your hard earned $$$ and sit back and watch the games at home for the most part. Your seats were sweet last season, I see how it's hard to say no. Cohen can stomach the hit, lol. I'm curious as to the development of the kids more than anything else really. The banter we have back and forth here is the best part really.
P.S. Damn! The offseason sure flew by, didn't it? Out threads here were/are great during that time.
+ or - 5 wouldn't surprise me.
Vegas has the Mets win total anywhere from 80.5 to 81.5 from what I see
+ or - 5 wouldn't surprise me.
Vegas has the Mets win total anywhere from 80.5 to 81.5 from what I see
To paraphrase Dr. Ray Stantz, "I wouldn't touch those odds with a 10-meter cattle prod."
Quote:
.500.
+ or - 5 wouldn't surprise me.
Vegas has the Mets win total anywhere from 80.5 to 81.5 from what I see
To paraphrase Dr. Ray Stantz, "I wouldn't touch those odds with a 10-meter cattle prod."
I have a small bet on the over (81.5). I feel like it will prevent me from rooting for losses (becoming a fan of the tank commanders) once the season seems like its slipping away (in May or June), lol.
thinking about the o/u just got me thinking on something slightly related, in the 3 years under cohen the met record on July 31 is really good. they were 8 over in 2021, 27 over in 2022, 5 under last year with basically everything going wrong and having already initiated the fire sale about a week earlier with robertson.
a good sign for stearns year 1 would be showing he can manage a roster to improvement over the season instead of regression. through the first 2 different GMs that was a commonality that sunk at least 2 out of 3 promising starts.
Quote:
It's always a happy day when it's Opening Day, even if it was postponed a day...
My expectations were so high in 2022 and then again in 2023.
2022 was so much fun in the regular season...until about the last 20 games. But so many great moments.
2023 was as disappointing a season as this long suffering Met fan can remember...on so many different fronts.
So, my hope for 2024 falls into the category of "expect nothing, you'll never be disappointed."
I'll say 81-81 and miss the play-offs.
I think a whole lot has to go right for the Mets to win more than half of their games and even more has to go right to sneak into the play-offs.
Here's what has to go right....
If......
Marte stays healthy, plays 130 games, has a reasonable year..
Their starting pitching, made up of a bunch of back end guys (Houser, Manaea, Megill), have career years..
Severino pitches like it's 2018.
Bader stays healthy and hits a bit and with some power
Alvarez shows consistency in the 6 hole (a lot to ask of a 22 year old)
The big four (Alonso, Lindor, McNeil, Nimmo) have even good years
Sugar is Sugar
JD Martinez replicates 2023, not 2022
Senga makes 25 plus starts
Baty is still the every day 3rd baseman in August (based on performance, not lack of alternative).....
Then the Mets have a chance to win 84 plus games.
If a few of these things don't materialize, they'll win 78-81
If almost none of these things happen, they'll win 75ish games.
But, 2025 could be fun.
Hiya danny!
De nada compadre. I feel the same exact way as you do. It's a good thing you didn't renew your tickets this year. I think 2025 and 2026 will be worth it though. This is a good year to save your hard earned $$$ and sit back and watch the games at home for the most part. Your seats were sweet last season, I see how it's hard to say no. Cohen can stomach the hit, lol. I'm curious as to the development of the kids more than anything else really. The banter we have back and forth here is the best part really.
P.S. Damn! The offseason sure flew by, didn't it? Out threads here were/are great during that time.
Indeed, no non-buyer's regret...The Mets did come back to me to offer a 10 game package, but the details didn't work out....I actually have tickets for a game in early May against the Phillies, from a rain-out game last year that was never replayed. And, I'm sure I'll get to a handful of other games this year...as Bob Murphy used to say "plenty of good seats still available."
Speaking of seats....kind of sad to see there are still tickets available for today!
Yes, the off-season threads were great..our own hot stove league!
One last thought....really surprised they didn't take Vientos north with them...wonder if they're sending a message? Maybe he's not a hard worker? Who knows, but Zach Short is thrilled to make the team, I bet, even if he doesn't last past when they need a spot for JD Martinez...or maybe DJ Stewart is the odd man out-man, he had a tough spring!
LGM always!
thinking about the o/u just got me thinking on something slightly related, in the 3 years under cohen the met record on July 31 is really good. they were 8 over in 2021, 27 over in 2022, 5 under last year with basically everything going wrong and having already initiated the fire sale about a week earlier with robertson.
a good sign for stearns year 1 would be showing he can manage a roster to improvement over the season instead of regression. through the first 2 different GMs that was a commonality that sunk at least 2 out of 3 promising starts.
I don't feel confident enough to do it, but psychologically I think it will keep me in a better place, lol.
and who knows maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. Maybe we all will.
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uncomfortable with the under. i suppose that's why vegas is vegas.
thinking about the o/u just got me thinking on something slightly related, in the 3 years under cohen the met record on July 31 is really good. they were 8 over in 2021, 27 over in 2022, 5 under last year with basically everything going wrong and having already initiated the fire sale about a week earlier with robertson.
a good sign for stearns year 1 would be showing he can manage a roster to improvement over the season instead of regression. through the first 2 different GMs that was a commonality that sunk at least 2 out of 3 promising starts.
I don't feel confident enough to do it, but psychologically I think it will keep me in a better place, lol.
and who knows maybe I'll be pleasantly surprised. Maybe we all will.
this may be overstating things on my part, but i dont think it's unfair to place the expectations on any top manager that they should be able to field a team that shows progress/improvement as opposed to the reverse.
so i think we will learn some things about stearns' ability to build "a winner" this year. even though it was a light spending offseason for cohen, stearns spent more AAV this year than his highest total payroll in MIL. so he basically "bought" a full Milwaukee roster, on top of nimmo, diaz, alonso, lindor, senga, mcneil, etc.
Rolled out Shecky!
"Behold...MY STUFF!"
NFT: Mets vs. Brewers: ⚾⚾ Opening Day ⚾⚾ – 1:40 pm EDT - Optimus-NY | 10:50 am
The lineups for both clubs were out early, so I figured to just go ahead and post the thread early.
Let's keep this thread going though for predictions for the season.
84-78, I know I'm always the overly optimistic one but whats the point of loving a team if you can't be filled with hope on opening day.
I agree with alot of points already expressed here, Marte health, Senga back soon, alvarez breakout ect...
However I watched alot of ST, and Severino has the stature and the attitude to be a true #1. His velocity is up and he seems confident as heck out there. I look forward to see what he can do here.
I think Mendozoa / Gibbons combination is going to surprise us in alot of ways with in game decisions at bull pen use.
I think after Quintana the 4&5 spot will be a revolving door which could lead to a move at the deadline.
I think Alonso talks pick up at the deadline (no trade) and sets the state for a early re-signing after the season.
I think Diaz is a animal this year, dont forget the rest of his body including arm has now had 2 years to heal.
Out of the box bold predictions:
*Jose Lopez becomes a absolute weapon, co-closer
*Tyrone Taylor shows enough to give Mets options to move Marte at deadline
*Megill has a strong 1st half.
*first prospect up is Mike Vasil in the BP.
*Bullpen becomes a strength of this team for the first time in a decade