My QB rankings of the top 6 - LONG

Someone asked me back a month or so ago about my QB stack of the top guys. I replied that I don't have that before the combine. It's not that the combine or pro day means a whole lot, but it's after that time where I dive in and watch the prospects more and do the most study. I think I feel comfortable enough that my rankings aren't going to change much, it at all, at this point, to deliver my thoughts on the top 6.

Also, I understand there are other QBs. But these are the only relevant ones to first round discussion. I don't believe any of the other QBs merit discussion when it comes to NYG's future except as middle to late round flyers, which I don't expect to happen after the signing of Lock, because I do believe the Giants will take a QB in the first round if there is one of the consensus top 4 at 6. No guarantee, of course, but even if they are shut out of the top 4, there's some chance they make a trade to still take a QB in the first round later.

I wanted to get this out there now, and taking the criticism and having this here for posterity to either be mocked or otherwise on how it pans out in the future.

My Top 5 QBs in the 2024 Draft, plus 1:

1. Jayden Daniels, LSU: Production off the charts. One of the best college seasons ever. He threw for 3812 yards and 40 TDs vs only 4 INTs at a 72.2% clip, with an Y/A of 11.7 and an AY/A of 13.6. No conversation can be had about Daniels without bringing up his running ability. 1134 yards on 135 totes for an average of 8.4, with another 10 TDs. 50 TDs running and passing, almost 5000 yards total in really less than 12 games (keep in mind he was knocked out of the ‘Bama game early in the 4th quarter). Super efficient throwing motion and quick release. Some have hesitation on his numbers because of the elite targets he had at his disposal, namely Malik Nabers and Brian Thomas. I do not. I haven’t seen a QB this athletically gifted who also is able to throw the ball with this efficiency and pocket presence in my lifetime. He’s not the runner Lamar or Vick was, in terms of agility, with quick and explosive lateral cuts. But his acceleration is top-tier, getting to his top speed very quickly, and his instincts as a runner are also very good, taking smart angles and setting up his blocks well. In the passing game, in addition to the quick release, I give him high marks for accuracy at all levels, including deep ball throwing. His ball placement on deep shots with touch and accuracy are a stand-out trait. This is not just because his receivers are really good, either. I noted more than a few times he put the ball in tight spots downfield where only his receiver could make a play, basically the perfect spot, and he dropped it in there on a postage stamp. This is a player you can start early and he’s going to put up points on the board. He’s going to make big plays and stress a defense who absolutely must respect his game-breaking speed. Again, I don’t think we’ve seen quite the combination of running and throwing, ever. There have only been a select few QBs in NFL history that are as athletically gifted as Jayden Daniels, and none that I can recall are as polished throwing the ball…not Vick, not Lamar…the closest thing I can remember…Randall Cunningham. I think Daniels can be better than him. The only two concerns I have with Daniels is losing some power and accuracy when throwing on the run, and his slight frame holding up to injury. But if he stays healthy, he’s going to win a lot of games for the team that drafts him, and he’s going to do it early, no scholarship needed. That’s why he’s my #1 QB in this draft.

2. J.J. McCarthy, Michigan: A lot of this is who I like as it relates to the Giants. Sure, some will point out to his low passing numbers overall, and how he wasn’t relied upon to do much. How he had a great team around him. But I see a 21 year old who really didn’t make a lot of mistakes, went 27-1, won a natty, played in a pro style offense, but more than that, he seems to be the type of competitor who plays at an intense level, sometimes perhaps a little too intense. But despite that, I also see a player that sees the entire field, that makes good decisions with the football, even when he misses (good misses), and plays under control. He has a feel in the pocket, and when the rush is getting close, is able to make big throws downfield accurately and without being rattled. This guy plays with a calm intensity (sound familiar?). This is the major difference I find with a couple of guys a little lower on this list, including my #3 QB. You just don’t see him lose composure in a play and see him try to force something and make a mistake. People don’t seem to appreciate the arm here. I will say this, he has a rifle, at least. Maybe not quite a Josh Allen-esque shoulder cannon, but his arm is more than big enough. 61 mph velo at the combine, which is 1 mph shy of Josh Allen. He can throw it 60 yards in the air with touch, no problem, and the truth is, you can go a whole season not having to make a throw that like that. He has enough power in that arm to make every throw required, and has the ability to throw downfield lasers while on the run, moving to his left. See both TD throws to Roman Wilson against Nebraska, but especially the 2nd one, rolling to his left throwing across his body on the move…a thing of beauty. I see a toolset here that is pro ready. Is he a couple inches shorter than my ideal? Yes. I wish his hand size was a half-inch bigger, but I don’t see these physical attributes affect his play in any negative way. He throws with the power of a big QB. He judicially runs with the football and gets good marks for his athleticism in doing so. You can do some zone read with him. I was really intrigued by Dave Syversten’s Ourlads Youtube video that compared him and Drake Maye, particularly his numbers under pressure and in play-action. When it comes to Daboll’s system, and looking for a QB that can operate an NFL offense at a high-level on schedule and make plays off-schedule, I have more trust in McCarthy to do so than any other QB in this draft. You want a QB under Daboll that has tools to work with and room to grow into an elite passer in the NFL, you have that with McCarthy. Would I trade up to 3 or 4 to get him…depending on cost, yes, I would. It’s clear this young man has done work to make himself into an elite prospect, and he was highly pedigreed as a HS recruit, 5-stars. This is the player I want a coach like Brian Daboll to work with. If he gets the most out of McCarthy, he’s a top 5 NFL QB. There’s no doubt that he muscles the ball sometimes when he could use more touch. But this is something I believe is a negative that is correctable under Daboll’s tutelage, but it’s hard to teach on-field composure or ability to make every throw. I think McCarthy has the whole package, and I would not be surprised at all to see him as the #1 QB to come out of this class when looking back in 5 years. I’m hoping that he gets past New England. Really, really hoping.

3. Drake Maye, UNC: When discussing Drake Maye, there’s a lot of traits I mentioned above about McCarthy that would apply to Maye. There’s some good athleticism to go with a big arm. A bigger arm than McCarthy…I would put Maye’s in the “shoulder cannon” class. Unlike McCarthy, Maye is more of a physical prototype at 6’4”, with a solid 223 lb build. Where I have Maye below McCarthy is his composure under pressure. See Miami game, early in the game under pressure, he should take a sack and live to see another play, he heaves it into traffic into what should’ve been an INT. There’s just a lack of control when things break down for him. Now a short discussion on accuracy. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning were two of the best I’ve ever seen when it comes to ball placement. It’s not just completing a pass, but where you hit your receiver when he’s open. Completing a pass is nice, but do you put the ball in the optimal position for your receiver to make YAC? Do you make it a more difficult catch than it needs to be? I see Maye as more inconsistent in this area than McCarthy, even when he gets the throw there. In the NFL, the windows are tighter. Some of those completions in college are incompletions or turnovers in the NFL. When it’s on time and clean, Maye really looks the part. But I think he needs some scholarship time in the NFL. I wouldn’t want to see him start early. But the raw tools and physical make-up, is it a guy I would like to see what Daboll could do with him to develop him? Absolutely. He has the makeup to be a franchise-level QB in the NFL if he hits his ceiling and can learn to play with better composure. He needs to learn to do everything better…feel the rush better, move in the pocket better, play with more composure, decision-making, and processing his reads faster. And this last point is my biggest concern…I want to see more when it comes to making plays when the first read isn’t there. I also think there’s a hole in his game relating throwing to his left, which he is not nearly as effective as throwing to his right or over the middle, and that’s exploitative at the next level. I would take him at 6 if he’s there, but I don’t want to see him play much his rookie year. I think he needs some time under NFL coaching to refine his game. The ceiling here is as big as anyone, but the floor is lower, too. The question is, do you gamble on the upside? I think he makes a good gamble. But I do have more faith in my top 2 to reach their upside than I do Maye. He could be another Kyle Boller or another Justin Herbert.

4. Michael Penix Jr, Washington: We’ve reached the point in my stack where I wouldn’t be drafting the player at #6. That said, what I like about Penix is his very talented left arm. And no, I don’t have any reservations about him as a left-handed QB playing for the Giants, doesn’t move the needle even a little bit. He has enough arm to make all the throws. He’s a thickly-built QB at 6’2” and 216 lbs, and there’s plenty of arm strength to make very NFL throw. There’s not another QB in this draft that throws a prettier ball, he can spin it with the best of them. There are throws I marvel at with the power, accuracy, and spin. Obviously, being 24 by the time the 2024 season rolls around, you wonder how topped out he is. As an athlete, I think he has enough running ability but he doesn’t do it very often, which is fine. You have to consider the two ACLs, the injury history, because he’s a QB that is mainly going to thrive in the pocket, he’s just not going to create a whole lot with his legs. There are times the arm talent just jumps off the screen. He made a back-foot throw against Utah from the opposite hash with a man in his face and just put it on his receiver on a go route over the top of the defender in stride, that was just incredible. He put on an absolute passing clinic in the CFP against high level competition vs Texas. Playing your best ball against the toughest competition matters a lot to me. I think he’s accurate with good ball placement, better than Maye in many respects, but he’s also had a lot more experience than Maye. I think he’s a good processor and manipulator of the defense. I love the advanced pocket movement, speaking to his awareness of the rush (more advanced than Maye in this regard). He plays with composure and intelligence. I have faith in him that he can start early in his NFL career and be productive. My questions relate to his ceiling. He has polish to him, I think he has some Matt Stafford in him at his best. But I don’t see superstar QB upside. In a trade down scenario, I wouldn’t be against drafting him in the 15-20 range. I think his polish and arm talent plays. His injury history, age, and capped ceiling keep him out of consideration for me in the top 10, however. He’s a prospect that I really like, though.

5. Bo Nix, Oregon: I’m flummoxed by Bo Nix, admittedly. I do think there’s good, but not elite arm talent. His scrambling ability is really good. I’m a fan of his pocket awareness. I would put his athleticism in the Daniel Jones tier, more of a build-up runner but I think he sees lanes well and makes good decisions when it comes to running. I think he’s a smart runner, if that makes sense. My hesitation with him is there are so many short, one-read throws that are a function of play design. There are times when he makes good throws when the base isn’t perfect, but I wouldn’t say he’s a great thrower off-platform. He loses some accuracy when off-platform and throws some passes that are more float-y. But I do think he has enough arm talent to project to the next level. What I like about him is he executed the system well. Really high completion percentage, of course, at an eye-popping 77.4%. We can say that has a lot to do with the system/offensive design, but he executed it with mental processing speed and decisiveness, and you have to like that. But when pressured, there’s throws that he got away with that he won’t at the next level. I do love the 10 1/4” hands, and his size at 6’2” and 214 lbs (combine measurements), are good enough, the hand size elite. I like his competitive edge. The Washington game was troubling to me. He struggled when his first read was taken away. He put the ball in trouble sometimes, trying to force it to his first read when it wasn’t there. He gave up on some plays too early when the first read wasn’t there. And he had an ugly interception on a pass that never should’ve been made. There was some chuck-and-hope in that game. And there was some never-say-die competitiveness and an elite off-platform throw for a TD. But overall, I think he’s a boom or bust prospect, and I don’t have the trust in the overall game to take him as more than an upside developmental QB. I would take him in the 2nd round, because there are things I really like, and if he reaches his ceiling, there’s potential for a franchise QB. But I feel I have to squint too much to see it. If he plays early, I think he’s going to be a turnover-prone QB that will struggle. For me, I think it’s a pass, let someone else take him.

6. Caleb Williams, USC: I know I’m not going to convince the believers, and that’s ok. Yes, I see what they do in the arm talent. It’s no doubt top-tier elite. However, I have reservations about his maturity, his personality, and his on-field IQ. I don’t think his improvisational ability is going to play in the NFL like it has in college. I don’t trust the maturity. Things that have bothered me: quotes from teammates alluding to that perhaps it was more about him than the team. I get it, there are people that believe that this is an exercise in extrapolating something that isn’t there. But the reports of wanting a team ownership stake as part of a rookie deal. WTF. This seems like an oversized ego that adds to the narrative. Then the fact he didn’t hire an agent…to me that furthers the narrative more, while people may disagree, that is a sign of an over-confident individual that doesn’t know what he doesn’t know…a lack of maturity. A professional knows when to let another professional handle certain things. But beyond that, his overconfidence I believe was also evident on the football field, with trying to make too many things happen when it wasn’t there. The fumbling issue, well-chronicled, is evidence of that. Comparing him to Daniels, I don’t get it. Daniels was superior in accuracy at all levels, threw fewer INTs, and far fewer fumbles. I think Williams is going to make spectacular plays at the next level that will make fans ooh and aah, and then there will be the unforced errors of trying to make a play when he shouldn’t and disaster ensues. This comes down to trust, I don’t trust Caleb Williams. If you do, good on you. There is no denying the natural athletic talent. But he’s not going to get away with what he got away with in college. But it really comes down to personality. His personality reminds me the most of Keyshawn Johnson and Terrell Owens, diva receivers that were toxic locker room guys…and you simply can’t have that as your franchise QB… you need a leader. Obviously, this take is polarizing and will prove to be either prophetic or foolish, but that’s my gut feeling. I am impressed with his playmaking ability, particularly as an off-platform thrower, but also as an on-schedule thrower. I think his running ability as a scrambler is overrated. I don’t think he’s a smart runner in the way Daniels is, who sees lanes and leverage and exploits it. I think he’s a panic-runner, who too often is late in recognizing pressure, taking off regardless of if there is green grass to run to. I don’t see it with him, the on-field IQ or the off-field EQ. I wouldn’t even have him on my draft board, because I have to trust my gut.

In terms of Giants' strategy, I would trade up to 4 if McCarthy is on the board. If Daniels and McCarthy are gone by 4, then I wait to see if Maye gets to 6. If he makes it, I take Maye. If he doesn't, then I'm going to take Nabers or Odunze or trade down if there is a trade that makes sense. Trading down to say, Minnesota's spot means I might have a chance at Brian Thomas Jr, and I think you don't have as big a drop-off from the top 3 to Thomas as people might assume. Then I will perhaps see if Penix makes it to a spot, probably late teens, where I can be a player. If not, I'm just going BPA.

I do believe getting an extra 1st next year in the worst case scenario is not a bad thing. There are two QBs in next year's draft that I think can be as good or better than anyone in this class. Obviously, it's a risk, but I'm ok with taking it. My gut says the Giants will be able to get McCarthy or Maye at 6. McCarthy is my main target. But if it doesn't happen, so be it. I believe I will get tremendous value out of the picks I have, and plan to be aggressive when DJ's money comes off the books to go all-in on the succession plan next year in worst case.