A lot of angst about the top 3, 4 or even 6 QBs and how many will be successful. QBs in the draft are typically a risk anyway, so when was the last time you thought a QB in the draft was a sure thing?
I certainly don't think any of the QBs in this year's draft are a sure thing, even Williams, so I am OK taking a shot with one of the top QBs. I know many compare their grades back to Andrew Luck, but I never thought he was a sure thing and while he had a good NFL career, not great and not a HOF'er. Lamar, Stroud, Burrow, Hebert, etc all had risks.
Last QB I thought was a sure thing was Peyton in the '98 draft, partly because of the bloodline. Eli I thought had a good chance, but wasn't a sure thing to me.
Who did you think were sure things?
Can you let me know where you purchased your crystal balls?
the only quality that gives me confidence projecting CFB qbs is that they show all the winning traits for NFL against high level CFB competition repeatedly as bryce young did vs UGA and watson did in his NCG games vs bama. I dont like 1 year wonders, i dont like super seniors, i dont like players who dont get better over time (darnold), and i dont normally like toolsy but raw prospects (josh allen, ar15, etc). more and more mobility/off script has become important which had me luke warm on guys like rosen, haskins, and now penix.
i was wrongly off on burrow and herbert for some of the reasons above. also allen. didnt really have a strong take on mahomes when he came out.
Great call by me there, Haha.
He was awesome that season/game.
Lawrence, btw, is one of those athletes who was so precocious - physically/skill wise - I think if high schoolers were draft eligible, he would have gone top ten in the 2018 draft.
Agreed, Lawrence was as much a can’t miss prospect as I’d seen in a number of years (probably since Andrew Luck). Now, whether he truly lives up to that hype remains to be seen, but at he very least, he’s a solid NFL starter. I still think his best days are ahead of him.
But the question itself begs the ponderance of why the hell is everyone promoting trading up for this crop of QBs...
I figured him to be Pro Bowl quality as a pro.
So far he’s been worse than I expected but it’s still early.
Happened to catch Ben on a ESPN Thursday night game and really liked him at MU. Wanted the Giants to draft him.
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While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros.
His demise was being stuck behind shitty O lines! Sound familiar?
Please let's not go that road that I think you're alluding to in terms of QBs.
Jeff George
John Elway
All guys I thought were can't misses over last few decades.
That's uncanny. Can you give me your Powerball numbers?
Jameis Winston
Josh Allen
Only QBs I ever REALLY stumped for
Trevor Lawrence, I thought he was a lock after his freshman season, but he faded after his sophomore and junior years.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
He was turning great but then he got injured and came back too soon
But you probably wouldn't trade up for him, right? ;)
Not on the same level but I really thought Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf were going to be great too. Not locks though.
Draft a guy with the tools you need, let Daboll develop him, and hope for good fortune.
Draft a guy with the tools you need, let Daboll develop him, and hope for good fortune.
Yup. I'll add one thing: be honest I'm evaluating whether or not the player is working out. That's been a huge problem for this organization, and I expect that to continue with the next QB.
Draft a guy with the tools you need, let Daboll develop him, and hope for good fortune.
I'm with you on the physical tools. Those are tangible. And trusting Daboll to mold from there.
The mental side/intangibles are THE hardest pieces to know and count on. That is the art of the scouting profession...
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While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros.
His demise was being stuck behind shitty O lines! Sound familiar?
Luck wasn’t terrific? WTF? Luck was incredible, averaged 275 ypg, threw for 181 TD’s in only 86 starts. Keep trying to tie yourself into a pretzel by comparing Jones’s situation to Luck. Jones has never come near any season Luck played.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
Anyone who doesn’t say Lawrence is lying. Everyone thought he was a sure thing. In fact since 1998 I have only felt 3 sure things … Peyton ManNing, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. Doesn’t mean I haven’t felt good about QBs but those 3 I thought were locks for greatness. I don’t include Caleb in that group because he has fumble issues and holds the ball a little two long. He is about as close as I can get without saying he is a lock though.
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In comment 16467297 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
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While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros.
His demise was being stuck behind shitty O lines! Sound familiar?
Luck wasn’t terrific? WTF? Luck was incredible, averaged 275 ypg, threw for 181 TD’s in only 86 starts. Keep trying to tie yourself into a pretzel by comparing Jones’s situation to Luck. Jones has never come near any season Luck played.
I saw his response & knew where he was going with that. Comparing Luck to you know who is an insult to the former.
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And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
Anyone who doesn’t say Lawrence is lying. Everyone thought he was a sure thing. In fact since 1998 I have only felt 3 sure things … Peyton ManNing, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. Doesn’t mean I haven’t felt good about QBs but those 3 I thought were locks for greatness. I don’t include Caleb in that group because he has fumble issues and holds the ball a little two long. He is about as close as I can get without saying he is a lock though.
I am not going to say I didn't think Lawrence would be great. In fact, I really like Lawrence today and would love to have him on the Giants. But I did think at the time he was a bit overblown. There were many who touted him over Burrow and I never saw that. But big kid, athletic, strong arm, effective. He was an excellent prospect. But I think Caleb Williams is a better prospect than Lawrence. Just as I thought Burrow was better than Lawrence.
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And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
Anyone who doesn’t say Lawrence is lying. Everyone thought he was a sure thing. In fact since 1998 I have only felt 3 sure things … Peyton ManNing, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. Doesn’t mean I haven’t felt good about QBs but those 3 I thought were locks for greatness. I don’t include Caleb in that group because he has fumble issues and holds the ball a little two long. He is about as close as I can get without saying he is a lock though.
Who the fuck are you to say who is lying?
I didn't watch a lot of Lawrence, since as mentioned in my post, I didn't watch a lot of college football by then.
Weird comment to make.
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In comment 16467314 Matt M. said:
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And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
Anyone who doesn’t say Lawrence is lying. Everyone thought he was a sure thing. In fact since 1998 I have only felt 3 sure things … Peyton ManNing, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. Doesn’t mean I haven’t felt good about QBs but those 3 I thought were locks for greatness. I don’t include Caleb in that group because he has fumble issues and holds the ball a little two long. He is about as close as I can get without saying he is a lock though.
Who the fuck are you to say who is lying?
I didn't watch a lot of Lawrence, since as mentioned in my post, I didn't watch a lot of college football by then.
Weird comment to make.
I mean if you don’t watch the best college football QBs what makes you think you are qualified to have an opinion on this thread? Probably should have stayed off if you aren’t educated on the subject.
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In comment 16467792 Amtoft said:
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In comment 16467314 Matt M. said:
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And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
Anyone who doesn’t say Lawrence is lying. Everyone thought he was a sure thing. In fact since 1998 I have only felt 3 sure things … Peyton ManNing, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. Doesn’t mean I haven’t felt good about QBs but those 3 I thought were locks for greatness. I don’t include Caleb in that group because he has fumble issues and holds the ball a little two long. He is about as close as I can get without saying he is a lock though.
Who the fuck are you to say who is lying?
I didn't watch a lot of Lawrence, since as mentioned in my post, I didn't watch a lot of college football by then.
Weird comment to make.
I mean if you don’t watch the best college football QBs what makes you think you are qualified to have an opinion on this thread? Probably should have stayed off if you aren’t educated on the subject.
I answered what I was qualified to answer, which is what my post said. If you read it you may understand it, you may not. But I did not say Lawrence and I'm not lying.
and there is no reason for you to be a dick on an innocuous opinion thread like this one.
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In comment 16467826 pjcas18 said:
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In comment 16467792 Amtoft said:
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In comment 16467314 Matt M. said:
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And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't.
In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.
Anyone who doesn’t say Lawrence is lying. Everyone thought he was a sure thing. In fact since 1998 I have only felt 3 sure things … Peyton ManNing, Andrew Luck, and Trevor Lawrence. Doesn’t mean I haven’t felt good about QBs but those 3 I thought were locks for greatness. I don’t include Caleb in that group because he has fumble issues and holds the ball a little two long. He is about as close as I can get without saying he is a lock though.
Who the fuck are you to say who is lying?
I didn't watch a lot of Lawrence, since as mentioned in my post, I didn't watch a lot of college football by then.
Weird comment to make.
I mean if you don’t watch the best college football QBs what makes you think you are qualified to have an opinion on this thread? Probably should have stayed off if you aren’t educated on the subject.
I answered what I was qualified to answer, which is what my post said. If you read it you may understand it, you may not. But I did not say Lawrence and I'm not lying.
and there is no reason for you to be a dick on an innocuous opinion thread like this one.
Ok first I didn’t even read your post. I find it funny you assumed I was talking to just you. As for saying “there is no reason for you to be a dick”… you replied to me from a post where I quoted someone else to be exactly that … a dick. Sorry if my response offended you but I stand by what I said.
As for Peyton Manning, there was virtually no consensus as to whether he or Ryan Leaf would be the better pro. Hard to believe but true. Many thought the Colts had made the wrong choice at the time. But it took about a day of practice to recognize the elite talent of Manning and the pure folly of Leaf.
So let these then be the lessons as we go into the 2024 NFL draft. First, it is virtually impossible to know who will succeed at NFL speed and size under the NFL spotlight. Second, the vaunted GMs who "know talent" are truthfully little better than the average informed fan when it comes to making these determinations. See Bryce Young. Or Zach Wilson. Or Trey Lance. Or Daniel Jones.
Stick with selecting best player available and let the draft come to you Joe Schoen.
Otherwise I don’t really recall thinking anyone looks amazing, QB is hard to evaluate.
I figured him to be Pro Bowl quality as a pro.
So far he’s been worse than I expected but it’s still early.