Last time you thought a QB in the draft was a "sure thing"

To believe any QB is a "sure thing".

.

Most recently, I thought Trevor Lawrence was a sure thing.
I figured him to be Pro Bowl quality as a pro.
So far he’s been worse than I expected but it’s still early.

Was the last sure thi g for me though Trevor Lawrence was up there.

While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros.

was the last QB I felt like wow this kid can't miss.

Back then I was watching a lot of college football and he just seemed like the perfect mix of size, speed, strength, mobility and I really hoped the Giants wound up drafting him.

Now, I only watch college football occasionally, so I almost never have opinions on QB's that I have strong convictions about.

As an honorable mention.

Peyton Manning
Jeff George
John Elway

All guys I thought were can't misses over last few decades.

Lawrence was a consensus but not regarded at the same level as Luck.

I know he had a down year his last year college. I know this sounds stupid but I loved watching him throw at the combine. He was strictly in the gun in college. When he was at the combine, he was taking snaps from under center and looked beyond natural doing it. His footwork was great. The ball exploded out of his hands. I think if he was in a traditional offense that focused on playaction that he could really thrive.

There are guys I would have been surprised if they busted, but there is no such thing as a sure thing in any draft. These are people, not robots. 1,000 things can derail a career.

And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't.

In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.

I did a deeper dive and thought he was as sure a thing as theer could be. I usually only look at prospects that the Giants could get but he jumped out.

Other than that I dont do a lot on QBs unless the Giants are taking one. I didnt look at Jones in 2019, I iddnt think we were going QB that early.

QB success is also about getting in the right situation with the right coach. QBs need to be in an offense and a system that suits their skills and has a supporting cast. I look at Purdy and I dont think he is a good QB, but he is good in the pocket and smart. I don't think he is a plug and play QB on most teams. He is not the guy thats wins games, he just usually doesnt lose them.

In comment 16467284 UberAlias said:

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To believe any QB is a "sure thing".

This really gets overlooked. 1983 draft alone:

Elway/Reeves
Kelly/Levy
Marino/Shula

Not saying these QBs would have failed in the NFL, but having great HCs means a lot IMO.

In comment 16467316 SirLoinOfBeef said:

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In comment 16467284 UberAlias said: Quote: To believe any QB is a "sure thing". This really gets overlooked. 1983 draft alone: Elway/Reeves Kelly/Levy Marino/Shula Not saying these QBs would have failed in the NFL, but having great HCs means a lot IMO.

Great point. Elway & Marino in '83 I thought were sure things, Kelly I wasn't sure about and I never heard of Ken O'Brien.

I'm not sure how anyone can answer this.

Can you let me know where you purchased your crystal balls?

thought he'd be a no-brainer in the mold of Andrew Luck, the Mannings and so on.

They don't exist.

those were my only 3, so roughly once every 4 years i like someone a lot. Luck is cheating because everyone felt that way and the other 2 i wouldnt say i was confident that they'd be mahomes, but that they'd be good winning qbs = or better than what Russell Wilson was in Seattle. Watson's early #'s in Houston were better than I expected.

the only quality that gives me confidence projecting CFB qbs is that they show all the winning traits for NFL against high level CFB competition repeatedly as bryce young did vs UGA and watson did in his NCG games vs bama. I dont like 1 year wonders, i dont like super seniors, i dont like players who dont get better over time (darnold), and i dont normally like toolsy but raw prospects (josh allen, ar15, etc). more and more mobility/off script has become important which had me luke warm on guys like rosen, haskins, and now penix.

i was wrongly off on burrow and herbert for some of the reasons above. also allen. didnt really have a strong take on mahomes when he came out.

The guy who was the best player on the field in the National Championship Game as a true freshman.

Somewhat amusing story, but I remember being @ a '99 draft party in college & telling anyone who would listen that Akili Smith was going to be a stud in the pros because I watched a lot of Ducks that season & he was UFB.

Great call by me there, Haha.

In comment 16467358 JoeyBigBlue said:

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The guy who was the best player on the field in the National Championship Game as a true freshman.

He was awesome that season/game.

Lawrence, btw, is one of those athletes who was so precocious - physically/skill wise - I think if high schoolers were draft eligible, he would have gone top ten in the 2018 draft.

In comment 16467358 JoeyBigBlue said:

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The guy who was the best player on the field in the National Championship Game as a true freshman.

Agreed, Lawrence was as much a can’t miss prospect as I’d seen in a number of years (probably since Andrew Luck). Now, whether he truly lives up to that hype remains to be seen, but at he very least, he’s a solid NFL starter. I still think his best days are ahead of him.

Lawrence...
But the question itself begs the ponderance of why the hell is everyone promoting trading up for this crop of QBs...

In comment 16467289 Cheech d said:

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Most recently, I thought Trevor Lawrence was a sure thing. I figured him to be Pro Bowl quality as a pro. So far he’s been worse than I expected but it’s still early.

Yep. Trevor. We see signs but not quite there year. But I wouldn't mind if we had him.

In comment 16467297 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:

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While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros.

His demise was being stuck behind shitty O lines! Sound familiar?

high on both Allen and Young (I still am). Started watching a lot more college football around 2008 and Luck stood out enjoyed that Stanford offense. Some other QB's made good impressions but none that I was in full bloom love with.

Happened to catch Ben on a ESPN Thursday night game and really liked him at MU. Wanted the Giants to draft him.

In comment 16467392 Blue1956 said:

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In comment 16467297 SFGFNCGiantsFan said: Quote: While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros. His demise was being stuck behind shitty O lines! Sound familiar?

Please let's not go that road that I think you're alluding to in terms of QBs.

In comment 16467303 ThomasG said:

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Peyton Manning Jeff George John Elway All guys I thought were can't misses over last few decades.

That's uncanny. Can you give me your Powerball numbers?

Cam Newton
Jameis Winston
Josh Allen

Only QBs I ever REALLY stumped for

no real sure thing, but I was confident these 2 QBs would be near the top in the NFL after watching their college seasons. Andrew Luck and Joe Burrow after his senior season.
Trevor Lawrence, I thought he was a lock after his freshman season, but he faded after his sophomore and junior years.

Caleb Williams

Micheal Vick

EVER.

Which is why I should not get too wrapped up in Qb recommendations.

In comment 16467314 Matt M. said:

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And he hasn't been bad, but he hasn't been the talent we thought he was. And oddly, as the team got better, his play didn't. In 2004, I thought both Eli and Roethlisberger were can't miss. This is why I would have drafted Ben and stuck with him once SD took Manning. But, as soon as the trade was announced, I did feel like we got the best guy in the draft and was 100% behind him the rest of the way.

He was turning great but then he got injured and came back too soon

whether that person is a GM, HC, scout or just a fan is completely meaningless, since there's no such thing as a "sure thing" when it comes to an NFL prospect.

...but TBH, he has just been OK so far in the NFL.

But Stroud looked like a really good bet to me.

No such thing as being 100% certain.

Lawrence.

In comment 16467490 AcidTest said:

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Lawrence.

But you probably wouldn't trade up for him, right? ;)

Lawrence was close too but I liked Luck more.

I thought Eli because of Peyton obviously. And I remember hearing when he was in high school and a freshman is college that there was another Manning who was a better athlete and could be better.

Not on the same level but I really thought Akili Smith and Ryan Leaf were going to be great too. Not locks though.

Nobody is a guarantee. You have to pick a guy with the right physical tools and mental make up, and then coach him up right. And even if you do those things, an injury or a personal issue may make it all moot anyway.

Draft a guy with the tools you need, let Daboll develop him, and hope for good fortune.

In comment 16467636 Mike from Ohio said:

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Nobody is a guarantee. You have to pick a guy with the right physical tools and mental make up, and then coach him up right. And even if you do those things, an injury or a personal issue may make it all moot anyway. Draft a guy with the tools you need, let Daboll develop him, and hope for good fortune.

Yup. I'll add one thing: be honest I'm evaluating whether or not the player is working out. That's been a huge problem for this organization, and I expect that to continue with the next QB.

In comment 16467636 Mike from Ohio said:

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Nobody is a guarantee. You have to pick a guy with the right physical tools and mental make up, and then coach him up right. And even if you do those things, an injury or a personal issue may make it all moot anyway. Draft a guy with the tools you need, let Daboll develop him, and hope for good fortune.

It doesn't mean you do it with the 6th overall pick. Just because no prospect is perfect doesn't make the best of what's available worthy of selection when you're on the clock.

In comment 16467430 Angus said:

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Which is why I should not get too wrapped up in Qb recommendations.

Luckily Lawrence came around otherwise my most recent would’ve been Rosen

In comment 16467636 Mike from Ohio said:

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Nobody is a guarantee. You have to pick a guy with the right physical tools and mental make up, and then coach him up right.

I'm with you on the physical tools. Those are tangible. And trusting Daboll to mold from there.

The mental side/intangibles are THE hardest pieces to know and count on. That is the art of the scouting profession...

In comment 16467392 Blue1956 said:

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In comment 16467297 SFGFNCGiantsFan said: Quote: While there's no such thing as a 'sure thing', I thought Luck was going to be terrific in the pros. His demise was being stuck behind shitty O lines! Sound familiar?

Luck wasn’t terrific? WTF? Luck was incredible, averaged 275 ypg, threw for 181 TD’s in only 86 starts. Keep trying to tie yourself into a pretzel by comparing Jones’s situation to Luck. Jones has never come near any season Luck played.