My opinion--which ultimately doesn't even matter to me, let alone anyone else--is based on what I've read/heard about each of them from the variety of the media's draftniks, pundits, and talent evaluators with special emphasis on those of them whose opinions I value the most (notably Waldman, Cosell, Boylhart, and our very own Sy'56). I also watch highlight reels and consider their college resume (age, games played, injuries, wins/losses, level of competition). One last thing I do is watch interviews with them to get a feel for their personality and character.
1. Caleb Williams (X)
I accept that his near unanimous #1 ranking in the media and the obvious fact that Chicago will make him the first overall pick in the draft means he is the clear cut #1 prospect in the draft, but I don't mind at all that he will be some other team's headache and not Big Blue's. If the Giants had been the team with the first overall pick, I'd be advocating for trading the pick for a haul of picks and take one of the other QBs.
2. Drake Maye
Here's where I'm disregarding everything I said in my opening paragraph and going my own way. Why? Because I love his upside and after reading the various criticisms of him, I think a lot of it had to do with him trying too hard to live up to the hype (the kind of mental mistakes that are correctable rather than innate (as in IQ/mental processing)). I think he would benefit a great deal from a red-shirt season under the tutelage of Daboll, Kafka, and Tierney while Jones maybe leads the Giants to the Super Bowl. Other than Caleb (who is worthy, but not wanted, nor available), Maye is the only QB prospect I consider worthy of a top six selection simply because his combination of size, arm talent, and athletic ability gives him All Pro upside that none of the others can match.
3. Michael Penix
Penix is my favorite of the QB prospects. I love his arm talent, foot speed, mental toughness, and character, but his resume of injuries is enough to make a top six selection too risky for my liking. He is another for whom a red-shirt rookie year would serve him well and would put him three years removed from his most recent injury (assuming he makes it through the red-shirt without injury). His maturity, intelligence, and genuineness shine through in interviews, making him an enjoyable guy to root for. Waldman has him as his QB2 (after only Caleb) and says of him, "he's the second-most talented quarterback in this class and has the potential to develop into an elite quarterback."
4/5. Bo Nix/JJ McCarthy
I like both of them enough, but JJM would likely require using the 6th overall pick, if not more, and I don't think he's worth it; whereas Nix can possibly be had by trading back into the first round (or maybe even early second round, you just never know).
6. Jayden Daniels
I appreciate his character and coachability, but there's a lot about him that worries me: his body type (especially given the way he plays the game), the fact that he was just another name until he had Nabers and Thomas Jr to throw to, and the simplicity of his progressions. But to some extent these are just excuses, because the reality is I just don't like the idea of rooting for the kind of offense that would best exploit his gifts. It's the same reason I'm not a Lamar Jackson fan and also why Penix is my QB3 (QB2, really, when you consider I don't want Caleb). Waldman had this to say...
| LSU created a lot of one-read scenarios for Daniels as well as plays where a Daniels appeared to be making multiple reads, but like Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, the design was schemed to hold one side of the field before targeting the primary option elsewhere. When Daniels made multiple reads, he lacked timing and patience with too many routes based on the coverage and he missed receivers coming open just as he turned away from the spot he was scanning. |
7. Spencer Rattler
8. Jordan Travis
9. Austin Reed
10. Michael Pratt
Waldman's top ten QB prospects...
Williams...85.25
Penix........80.25
Nix...........79
Daniels.....77.85
JJM..........76.95
Maye........76.625
Rattler......76.175
Reed.........75.45
Travis.......74.725*
Mordecai..74.975*
* not sure if it's a typo, but he has Travis and Mordecai as QB9 and QB10 respectively, but Mordecai's overall grade is higher.
And when considering between QB or WR with the 6th overall pick, Waldman's grades for his top five receivers are...
Nabers....95.3
Odunze...93.6
MHJ.......92.2
Worthy....91.9
Thomas...91.8
As I said at the top, ultimately my opinion doesn't even matter to me, and what I mean by that is it's not like I think any of us--including Sy, Waldman, Cosell, Boylhart, etc--are operating with the same level of intel as the NFL teams that are making the selections. While it may turn out in the long run that my rankings proved better than how the prospects came off the board in the draft, that would be more about luck than smarts. I accept that my opinion of what the Giants should do pales in comparison to Schoen & Daboll's opinion. I just do this to pass the time and indulge my fandom. Once the draft happens, Schoen and Daboll will explain their reasoning for doing whatever it is they did and I will compare it to what were my thoughts to find out what it is I was missing (rather than criticizing them for what I think they missed!).
Part of me is scared of this quarterback class; however, I trust JS and BD to make the right decision. I want a quarterback, as it is a dire need for the Giants. I just hope that they choose the right one, if they do. When JS was with Buffalo, they had a conviction for Josh Allen. I hope that’s the case. We will see.
Drake is a lot like Josh Allen. I hope is OC can turn him into Josh
If Jayden doesn’t gain weight and muscle he will have an RG 3 career
Pennix needs to stay healthy and he will have a very nice career. But his history scares me
I’ve said this for 4 months. Bo nix will be the best QB in this class
I am not a McCarthy fan. Pass Reminds me to much of Zach Wilson
I wish Jordan Travis didn’t get hurt and FSU would’ve won the championship
Thx Milton
Me too
I kid, I kid. I respectfully disagree on your assessment of Daniels. He has the best release in the draft (perhaps the last 5 drafts) and he has by far the most patience going through his progressions. I don’t think you really gave him a thorough look for you to say otherwise. He actually only runs after he goes through his reads. Ideally, he does need to gain 10#….do you think that will be hard in an NFL weight program? It is also a QB protection league under the new rules.
There is a reason Sy has him ranked as his #1 QB prospect….
I agree that Maye has a lot of potential… but Penix is my favorite as well. He will be a star IMO and I would love him in blue. Trade down, accumulate more assets, draft Penix is my favorite scenario. Will be fun to see how it all plays out.
Just about six weeks ago there was a pretty good consensus that three quarterbacks made up Tier 1. Now there is much more uncertainty.
The consensus of the last couple of weeks was that the first six or seven to go would be QB and WR. I doubt it. The media reporters covering the draft are usually copycats. With some exceptions, they all pick the same players to be picked at the top, just rearranging the order.
But some GMs will have fallen in love with a player his scouts have been touting for years and will think it great luck to be able to take the best lineman, offensive or defensive, in the draft.
For those curious Waldman's RSP QB rankings:
1. Williams
2. Penix
3. Nix
4. Daniels
5. JJM
6. Maye
My personal concerns with Maye are that the same questions people had with Jones when he was coming out, are the questions with Maye.
I think Maye drops in the draft. He is a risky pick. I dont see anyone trading up past the Giants to grab him if he is available.
Unfortunately, Covid hit in 2020 and ASU only played four games. The following year was a bit down for Daniels as a cloud of recruiting issues hovered over the program. Ultimately, Herm Edwards left as HC.
So, he wasn't just "another name". Further, Daniels was a top 50 player in high school in 2019 and was a 4-star recruit (2nd ranked dual threat QB) sought after by Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Florida State, Ohio State, Oregon, etc. All of the top programs.
This isn't some rags to riches story. This is a great high school prospect who grew to become a great NFL prospect.
Feels a lot like full bloom love.
Matt Waldman Evaluates Top Skill Players in NFL Draft | Giants Huddle - ( New Window )
Williams - too much made of his antics, clear #1
Daniels - sorry Milton he is not Lamar #2. Far superior throwing the ball - not even close. Not nearly the runner either, even if he is very good. Slight build - does not bother me at all.
Maye - scares the crap out of me - too much focus about him being Josh Allen part 2 and I don't think he is. Definitely needs to be red-shirted to clean up his technique, but something about him gives me pause. (Editors note: I didn't like Josh Allen, either and I like Maye even more.)
McCarthy - seems to have all the tools but is least developed of the big six. Another red-shirt candidate. Not sure what to make of him. Don't like that he seems to believe all balls must be delivered at "100 mph", but then again he can deliver it at "100 mph."
Penix - while he did not do well in CFB Champ game, he throws a beautiful ball and moves better than expected. I think he will not need much time on the bench to start. From my POV, he is going to be a VG QB. I have changed my mind and would be happy if Schoen takes him at #6.
Nix - I know nothing of QB scouting, but this guy can move the ball. Yes, "least arm" of the group. Also, as Sy said, he is faster than Jones - hmmm. He throws from all the angles and def sees the field. He reminds me very much of Drew Brees. Not sure I would want him at #6, but if they traded back to #11, I would take him at 11 or wherever.
Williams and Daniels will be long gone. But my order of preference after those two would be:
Penix, McCarthy, Maye, Nix - I have Maye ahead of Nix because of the arm and that he is so raw the potential to develop is more than Nix.
I absolutely feel that Maye and McCarthy would need to sit for most if not all of 2024.
Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan...
Rome Odunze, Ja'Lynn Polk, Jalen McMillan...
or Jayden Daniels withe better WRs in Nabers and Thomas???
or
Did Caleb Williams look mundane last year because of no WRs???
or
Did Nix look so good because of his WRs???
Long story short, he described all the "mock drafts" and pre-draft speculation as "entertainment".
This resonated as it is clear that most of us, not being privy to the real evaluation process, are just guessing.
Can't wait for the real thing and the end to this constant reshuffling of the QB tarot cards. Let the real games begin.
One agreement: I think Jordan Travis is a very, very interesting prospect. I like him a lot and he will have a ton of value in the middle rounds...if he makes it that far.
Long story short, he described all the "mock drafts" and pre-draft speculation as "entertainment".
This resonated as it is clear that most of us, not being privy to the real evaluation process, are just guessing.
Can't wait for the real thing and the end to this constant reshuffling of the QB tarot cards. Let the real games begin.
This is true.
However, NFL teams have PROVEN to be just as bad at picking QBs as the public. Indeed, they are terrible at it.
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Really changed my view of the process and pre-draft hype. He said that the public is aware of about 45% of the info compiled on draft prospects, especially QB's. Won't go into it but he did explain the "tests" that teams administer to QB prospects - namely defense recognition and choices as to where to throw / which receiver. All of this and more are not pubic info.
Long story short, he described all the "mock drafts" and pre-draft speculation as "entertainment".
This resonated as it is clear that most of us, not being privy to the real evaluation process, are just guessing.
Can't wait for the real thing and the end to this constant reshuffling of the QB tarot cards. Let the real games begin.
This is true.
However, NFL teams have PROVEN to be just as bad at picking QBs as the public. Indeed, they are terrible at it.
Ain't that the truth...
In a nutshell, they are unwilling or unable to properly evaluate processing combined with throwing QBs into the meat grinder before they are ready.
It's probably why he has Penix and Nix so high and is down on the others.
Long story short, he described all the "mock drafts" and pre-draft speculation as "entertainment".
This resonated as it is clear that most of us, not being privy to the real evaluation process, are just guessing.
Can't wait for the real thing and the end to this constant reshuffling of the QB tarot cards. Let the real games begin.
Draft position gives your more options
But picking the right guy is obviously the key
Of all the things I have trust in Daboll, Schoen, Kafka...Tierney - is that they can pick the right guy to develop.
Here's to hoping we can get our guy without giving up so much
In a nutshell, they are unwilling or unable to properly evaluate processing combined with throwing QBs into the meat grinder before they are ready.
It's probably why he has Penix and Nix so high and is down on the others.
That interview posted above is outstanding. When you think about the elite QBs and the elite throws they make, it is where the ball is placed which is often a function of the leverage. Bad QBs often get the ball to a guy who has little separation, but they put it where the defender can interrupt it.
The distinction he makes in being able to recognize coverage vs understand where a route may come open and where the ball needs to be is something that you don’t often hear discussed in scouting write ups.
It is still a lot of projection and some guess work, but his analysis is really compelling.
So the guy who looks like a hipster doofus has figured it out? That would be pretty ironic.
So the guy who looks like a hipster doofus has figured it out? That would be pretty ironic.
I think a big factor is there are too many foolish considerations that have nothing to do with playing QB. Face of the franchise stuff that is made up in owner's and GMs' heads. Teams find reasons to like guys and chase lost causes.
Right. The lure of drafting a lottery/high-first QB is obviously the Wonka Golden Ticket - the rookie contract.
That is the chase. That is the catnip. That dictates your roster building and spend.
For better or worse, that's how the game has evolved. It's not the lack of patience so much, IMV, that's the problem. It's the lack of quickly accepting a mistake @ QB and pivoting away as soon as possible.
Most college schemes are heavy on single reads, LSU is hardly an outlier.
I think the biggest difference is that many of these guys have never faced real adversity on the field before the NFL level. Many of these guys were top recruits out of high school, and are then top picks in the draft. You come into a situation where all of a sudden the expectations of you are still sky high, but the game is now much harder. Fans boo you when you have a few bad series which is probably new for many of these guys.
I think situation matters a lot whether they succeed or fail, but I think the mental prep and strength is a huge factor in how many of these guys flame out...and why it would seem to happen more at the QB spot than elsewhere.
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I'm not so sure about that. With the Giants, yes. But we've seen other teams draft QBs who actually don't factor in stuff like that and it burns them too.
I think the biggest difference is that many of these guys have never faced real adversity on the field before the NFL level. Many of these guys were top recruits out of high school, and are then top picks in the draft. You come into a situation where all of a sudden the expectations of you are still sky high, but the game is now much harder. Fans boo you when you have a few bad series which is probably new for many of these guys.
I think situation matters a lot whether they succeed or fail, but I think the mental prep and strength is a huge factor in how many of these guys flame out...and why it would seem to happen more at the QB spot than elsewhere.
Yeah, Waldman talked about that too.
I've mentioned this before, but in Bill Walsh's classic book (Finding the Winning Edge), he dedicates an entire chapter on how simply being a rookie in the NFL is a huge mental issue for many players.
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I'm not so sure about that. With the Giants, yes. But we've seen other teams draft QBs who actually don't factor in stuff like that and it burns them too.
I think the biggest difference is that many of these guys have never faced real adversity on the field before the NFL level. Many of these guys were top recruits out of high school, and are then top picks in the draft. You come into a situation where all of a sudden the expectations of you are still sky high, but the game is now much harder. Fans boo you when you have a few bad series which is probably new for many of these guys.
I think situation matters a lot whether they succeed or fail, but I think the mental prep and strength is a huge factor in how many of these guys flame out...and why it would seem to happen more at the QB spot than elsewhere.
Caleb Williams faced plenty of adversity in 2023. He was playing with a terrible line, bad receivers and an overmatched defense.
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In comment 16469363 Eric from BBI said:
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I'm not so sure about that. With the Giants, yes. But we've seen other teams draft QBs who actually don't factor in stuff like that and it burns them too.
I think the biggest difference is that many of these guys have never faced real adversity on the field before the NFL level. Many of these guys were top recruits out of high school, and are then top picks in the draft. You come into a situation where all of a sudden the expectations of you are still sky high, but the game is now much harder. Fans boo you when you have a few bad series which is probably new for many of these guys.
I think situation matters a lot whether they succeed or fail, but I think the mental prep and strength is a huge factor in how many of these guys flame out...and why it would seem to happen more at the QB spot than elsewhere.
Caleb Williams faced plenty of adversity in 2023. He was playing with a terrible line, bad receivers and an overmatched defense.
Yeah but he also knew he was going to go on and likely be the first pick in the NFL draft the following year, so he essentially got a reset. There isn't going be that out if he struggles in the NFL.
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In comment 16469472 Mike from Ohio said:
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In comment 16469363 Eric from BBI said:
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I'm not so sure about that. With the Giants, yes. But we've seen other teams draft QBs who actually don't factor in stuff like that and it burns them too.
I think the biggest difference is that many of these guys have never faced real adversity on the field before the NFL level. Many of these guys were top recruits out of high school, and are then top picks in the draft. You come into a situation where all of a sudden the expectations of you are still sky high, but the game is now much harder. Fans boo you when you have a few bad series which is probably new for many of these guys.
I think situation matters a lot whether they succeed or fail, but I think the mental prep and strength is a huge factor in how many of these guys flame out...and why it would seem to happen more at the QB spot than elsewhere.
Caleb Williams faced plenty of adversity in 2023. He was playing with a terrible line, bad receivers and an overmatched defense.
Yeah but he also knew he was going to go on and likely be the first pick in the NFL draft the following year, so he essentially got a reset. There isn't going be that out if he struggles in the NFL.
What does knowing you're the top pick have to do with it? He had terrible surroundings and chaos and he followed up a Heisman year with another excellent year. I think part of why he's going number one is an acknowledgment that in addition to elite field awareness, elite arm talent and elite playmaking, he has shown an ability to overcome obstacles.