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NGT: Eagles extend DeVonta Smith

pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 10:42 am
3 years $75M, $51M guaranteed.

per twitter.


Ian Rapoport
@RapSheet
The #Eagles have paid another big-time, rising player. This time, WR DeVonta Smith gets a 3-year, $75M contract extension that includes $51M guaranteed, sources say.

The deal was done by @kelt_crenshaw
of @KlutchSports
, and it keeps Smith in PHI for years to come. 💰 💰 💰
this is notable because he is the first 2021 FRP draftee to extend  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 10:45 am : link
a bit of a surprise as 2021 draftees only just became extension eligible but philly likes to strike early.

this year was scheduled at @3.4m, plus a 5yo remaining, i would think this is a 3 year extension on top of that for 5 years total. 25m per year ties AJB for 4th highest of all WRs. 51m if fully guaranteed would be 2nd most but i would think that amount is inclusive of what he had left not on top.

i think amon-ra and ceedee lamb are the next wrs up, with jefferson in the hole to probably go above 150m total.
…  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 4/15/2024 10:45 am : link
I think even indigenous tribes in the Amazon knew we wanted him in ‘21.
It’s amazing and frustrating  
Frbuff : 4/15/2024 10:46 am : link
That the eagles can sign or resign players regardless of the cost and have no major cap situation.. while we struggle to fill our roster due to cap implications.
Sign your draft picks early  
Ben in Tampa : 4/15/2024 10:47 am : link
It’s advantaged for the player and the team.

Smith will get another bite at the Apple while he’s still in his prime.
another  
Eric from BBI : Admin : 4/15/2024 10:57 am : link
pick where everyone in the NFL knew who the Giants wanted, and got jumped.
RE: It’s amazing and frustrating  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 11:06 am : link
In comment 16469205 Frbuff said:
Quote:
That the eagles can sign or resign players regardless of the cost and have no major cap situation.. while we struggle to fill our roster due to cap implications.


they have lost almost half of their starters from the SB team, many for cap reasons (or retirements that freed up cap space).
Also  
Jay on the Island : 4/15/2024 11:16 am : link
This is probably another backloaded deal. The first year cap hit is probably minimal.
RE: …  
eric2425ny : 4/15/2024 11:17 am : link
In comment 16469204 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I think even indigenous tribes in the Amazon knew we wanted him in ‘21.


lol.
RE: another  
eric2425ny : 4/15/2024 11:18 am : link
In comment 16469230 Eric from BBI said:
Quote:
pick where everyone in the NFL knew who the Giants wanted, and got jumped.


Probably the most pissed off I have been during the draft. Two division rivals making the trade just made it even worse.
RE: Also  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 11:24 am : link
In comment 16469265 Jay on the Island said:
Quote:
This is probably another backloaded deal. The first year cap hit is probably minimal.


his cap hit this year was supposed to be 6.4m.

of the 51m guaranteed, my guess is a big chunk is signing bonus which would prorate similarly over 5 years (if it's a full 5 year deal, which i suspect it probably is).

but the eagles use a lot of funky structures with option bonuses, so who knows.

in the end i think this will be pretty close to:

the 2 remaining years (19m already gtd)
+2 years that would have been franchise tags (~$50m now partially gtd)
+1 more year that would have been uncontrolled for philly (not gtd)

devonta gave philly a few extra cost controlled years in return for an extra $30m guaranteed today.
RE: RE: Also  
mfjmfj : 4/15/2024 12:29 pm : link
In comment 16469276 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16469265 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


This is probably another backloaded deal. The first year cap hit is probably minimal.



his cap hit this year was supposed to be 6.4m.

of the 51m guaranteed, my guess is a big chunk is signing bonus which would prorate similarly over 5 years (if it's a full 5 year deal, which i suspect it probably is).

but the eagles use a lot of funky structures with option bonuses, so who knows.

in the end i think this will be pretty close to:

the 2 remaining years (19m already gtd)
+2 years that would have been franchise tags (~$50m now partially gtd)
+1 more year that would have been uncontrolled for philly (not gtd)

devonta gave philly a few extra cost controlled years in return for an extra $30m guaranteed today.


They have no cap space. Be shocked if this is not option years as far as the eye can see. That is why they can spend so much money. They will spend 50% to 100% more on their roster this year than we will. Eventually they are going to have to blow it up. Probably after this year.
RE: RE: RE: Also  
Essex : 4/15/2024 12:37 pm : link
In comment 16469422 mfjmfj said:
Quote:
In comment 16469276 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16469265 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


This is probably another backloaded deal. The first year cap hit is probably minimal.



his cap hit this year was supposed to be 6.4m.

of the 51m guaranteed, my guess is a big chunk is signing bonus which would prorate similarly over 5 years (if it's a full 5 year deal, which i suspect it probably is).

but the eagles use a lot of funky structures with option bonuses, so who knows.

in the end i think this will be pretty close to:

the 2 remaining years (19m already gtd)
+2 years that would have been franchise tags (~$50m now partially gtd)
+1 more year that would have been uncontrolled for philly (not gtd)

devonta gave philly a few extra cost controlled years in return for an extra $30m guaranteed today.



They have no cap space. Be shocked if this is not option years as far as the eye can see. That is why they can spend so much money. They will spend 50% to 100% more on their roster this year than we will. Eventually they are going to have to blow it up. Probably after this year.


i doubt it.
they will go as far on the current path as hurts takes them  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 12:42 pm : link
they basically went all in (or close to it) with his contract.

once they did that there was little downside in pushing farther all in to make that bet successful.
RE: RE: RE: Also  
shyster : 4/15/2024 12:42 pm : link
In comment 16469422 mfjmfj said:
Quote:
They will spend 50% to 100% more on their roster this year than we will.


Doubt you can back that up. Spotrac has 2024 cash at $279M Eagles, $258M Giants, a difference of 8%.
RE: RE: RE: RE: Also  
BleedBlue46 : 4/15/2024 12:47 pm : link
In comment 16469441 Essex said:
Quote:
In comment 16469422 mfjmfj said:


Quote:


In comment 16469276 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


In comment 16469265 Jay on the Island said:


Quote:


This is probably another backloaded deal. The first year cap hit is probably minimal.



his cap hit this year was supposed to be 6.4m.

of the 51m guaranteed, my guess is a big chunk is signing bonus which would prorate similarly over 5 years (if it's a full 5 year deal, which i suspect it probably is).

but the eagles use a lot of funky structures with option bonuses, so who knows.

in the end i think this will be pretty close to:

the 2 remaining years (19m already gtd)
+2 years that would have been franchise tags (~$50m now partially gtd)
+1 more year that would have been uncontrolled for philly (not gtd)

devonta gave philly a few extra cost controlled years in return for an extra $30m guaranteed today.



They have no cap space. Be shocked if this is not option years as far as the eye can see. That is why they can spend so much money. They will spend 50% to 100% more on their roster this year than we will. Eventually they are going to have to blow it up. Probably after this year.



i doubt it.


They won't have to blow it up until '27-'28 or so when Hurts money hits hard. Even then, they could just further extend his money into the future. They can prolong the blow up as long as they continue extending Hurts' cash into the future.
I was really hoping the Giants  
darren in pdx : 4/15/2024 1:04 pm : link
could get him or Waddle in that draft..and Parsons was sitting there too, what a disaster.
RE: It’s amazing and frustrating  
5BowlsSoon : 4/15/2024 1:38 pm : link
In comment 16469205 Frbuff said:
Quote:
That the eagles can sign or resign players regardless of the cost and have no major cap situation.. while we struggle to fill our roster due to cap implications.


Their GM and cap specialists are the best in the business. I was hoping Brandon Brown was going to impart some of that wisdom to our boys….but apparently he hasn’t….yet.
RE: RE: It’s amazing and frustrating  
BleedBlue46 : 4/15/2024 1:41 pm : link
In comment 16469575 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
In comment 16469205 Frbuff said:


Quote:


That the eagles can sign or resign players regardless of the cost and have no major cap situation.. while we struggle to fill our roster due to cap implications.



Their GM and cap specialists are the best in the business. I was hoping Brandon Brown was going to impart some of that wisdom to our boys….but apparently he hasn’t….yet.


There's no reason to do any of this if the window is not only unopened, it's boarded shut multiple times. You don't so this kind of cap maneuvering when your struggling to get out of the bottom feeder level. This is for when you see an opent window of opportunity to compete for super Bowls.
RE: RE: It’s amazing and frustrating  
Frbuff : 4/15/2024 1:47 pm : link
In comment 16469246 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16469205 Frbuff said:


Quote:


That the eagles can sign or resign players regardless of the cost and have no major cap situation.. while we struggle to fill our roster due to cap implications.



they have lost almost half of their starters from the SB team, many for cap reasons (or retirements that freed up cap space).


This furthers my point

Following the Devonta Smith extension, the Eagles now have (by average annual value), the...

4th highest paid QB
4th highest paid RB
4th highest paid WR
5th highest paid WR (reported 25 AAV for Smith)
5th highest paid TE
4th highest paid OT
5th highest paid OT
Highest paid OG

RE: RE: It’s amazing and frustrating  
Essex : 4/15/2024 1:50 pm : link
In comment 16469575 5BowlsSoon said:
Quote:
In comment 16469205 Frbuff said:


Quote:


That the eagles can sign or resign players regardless of the cost and have no major cap situation.. while we struggle to fill our roster due to cap implications.



Their GM and cap specialists are the best in the business. I was hoping Brandon Brown was going to impart some of that wisdom to our boys….but apparently he hasn’t….yet.


why would you expect Brandon Brown to impart that wisdom, wasn't he a scouting director there. They have finance guys working on the cap reporting to the GM. I doubt the scouting side got into those conversations.
none of this  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 3:39 pm : link
cap hell stuff means anything.

especially when Hurts contract won't hurt (no pun intended) until he's cuttable with zero cap implications.

the way they used void years, guarantees, bonuses, and salary is really ingenious - made so by scouting to an extent (bad player on a good contract is still a bad player). Of course they haven't won a SB with this model, the SB they won was different, but they will remain competitive if they keep adding quality players and avoid major injury issues.
Im not worried about Philly  
Rudy5757 : 4/15/2024 3:52 pm : link
they are in decline. This is a good resign for them but their roster is not what it was. It's an old team trying to hang on. Lane Johnson is the next to retire. We will see them come down a notch again this season. Dallas is still the best team in the division.

hurts contract wont hurt until they want to move on from him  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 3:53 pm : link
they bet on that not happening for a long time, probably longer than i'd bet personally, but i guess they figure if you are in for a penny you are in for a pound.

i would guess hurts hurts sometime between 2026-2028 and they have to eat more than 100m of dead money to move on.

it is not hard to envision them wanting to move on even sooner though. his int% doubled last year (3rd worst of all full time starters) and he regressed in almost every good metric. td, ypg, comp%, y/a, qb rating, qbr, rushing ypg, rush y/a, fumbles the same.

if they move on from siriani who knows what happens. they are either hiring a new coach whose system can inherit hurts or eating a bigger hit than denver/russ - and that's not just this year but any of the next 4 seasons.
I agree with Eric/LI...  
bw in dc : 4/15/2024 4:02 pm : link
that the real pain point with Philly and the cap is potentially Hurts. Perhaps there were injuries that led to the regression but Hurts right now looks like a slightly above average QB, especially throwing.

But I don't get this move on Smith's contract. Smith has been good, but no one is confusing him with Hill, Jefferson, Adams, etc. So, why make early on an extension?




RE: I agree with Eric/LI...  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 4:07 pm : link
In comment 16469824 bw in dc said:
Quote:
that the real pain point with Philly and the cap is potentially Hurts. Perhaps there were injuries that led to the regression but Hurts right now looks like a slightly above average QB, especially throwing.

But I don't get this move on Smith's contract. Smith has been good, but no one is confusing him with Hill, Jefferson, Adams, etc. So, why make early on an extension?



next year his $15m 5yo would have been guaranteed. this year he had $3.5m gtd left. if they tagged him the year after that would be 25m.

so assume those 3 things happened, that would have been $43m, $19m of which would be guaranteed before training camp.

they guaranteed him just $7m more ($51m) to get 2 extra years of control.

they can structure his next 3 years however they want. if they play games, his cap hits can be lower than they would have been, and in 2025/2026 they probably will be.
bad math the 43m should really be 44m  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 4:12 pm : link
though in reality it would probably be even higher than that because the tag in 2026 for WR will probably be at least 2 or 3m higher than it is projected next year (25m).

that is why they are locking in the price now, before it accelerates even farther and they end up giving him $50m+ guaranteed over the next 3 years but not getting any extra years out of it.
Why would they  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 4:21 pm : link
need or want to move on from him before he's 31 years old.

even if he declines, it makes financial sense for them to bite the bullet until the 2029 season.

At that time he is cuttable with no dead cap.

Even if they decided to part ways in 2028 they'd have just 7.7M in dead cap.

and that is without doing a thing to the current contract.

It's reasonable to believe Hurts will be playable and a competitive QB for 4 more seasons.

To get there at most requires two "painful" seasons.

2026 when he has a $31.7M cap number
2027 when he has a $41.8M cap number

I'd suffer through 2027 if I were them if it meant i could part ways (and he warranted parting ways) for just $7.77M in dead cap.

Giants ate double that on Golladay.

Hurts 2024 and 2025 are easily some of the best QB cap value in the league.



your numbers are wrong  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 4:29 pm : link
and yes there's a chart:



and why would they move on? if they need to replace him. they gave wentz 128m in june 2019 and moved on in february 2021. things happen quickly in the nfl. this contract is much harder to get out of than the wentz deal though.
My numbers  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 4:34 pm : link
are from OTC. I'd be surprised if they were wrong. And because they needed to move on from one QB has zero bearing on them "needing" to move on from the next. Brady played to 40-something years old, Eli, Ben, Ryan, Stafford, Rodgers, etc. all played until they were old, no reason to believe Hurts can't play to 31 and still be effective. Or even 29 if they want to part ways in 2028.

Spotrac  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 4:36 pm : link
has the same as OTC.

another reason  
Giantsfan79 : 4/15/2024 4:38 pm : link
To draft a WR at 6, the good ones don't reach free agency
RE: My numbers  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 4:43 pm : link
In comment 16469886 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
are from OTC. I'd be surprised if they were wrong. And because they needed to move on from one QB has zero bearing on them "needing" to move on from the next. Brady played to 40-something years old, Eli, Ben, Ryan, Stafford, Rodgers, etc. all played until they were old, no reason to believe Hurts can't play to 31 and still be effective. Or even 29 if they want to part ways in 2028.



you are misunderstanding how option bonuses work. that chart i posted was from Jason Fitzgerald who runs OTC.
https://overthecap.com/thoughts-on-jalen-hurts-255-million-contract-with-the-eagles - ( New Window )
RE: Spotrac  
JoeSchoens11 : 4/15/2024 4:56 pm : link
In comment 16469891 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
has the same as OTC.

That seems to contradict itself. It says the 2028 out would be a 5-year $208M contract ($41M+ / yr). But they would only have $115M in cap hits + the $8M dead money over that time.
Yeah  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 4:59 pm : link
it's a confusing contract, but either way there is no reason to believe he won't be an effective QB at 30/31 years old.
it has nothing to do with his age i dont think he is a top QB  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 5:12 pm : link
they have gone as all in on him as any contract in the NFL. i dont think he's anywhere close to the level of lamar, herbert, burrow, mahomes, or allen and that's how much he is paid. and in a riskier more gimmicky way.

remaining an effective QB is not the same as being good enough to justify the amount of money he's being paid and living up to those expectations - which are SB contender. russell wilson is still effective but he's not still a bronco.
Is it riskier  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 5:23 pm : link
than Kirk Cousins contract (for example)? When you add in the rushing ability even though Cousins may be a better passer I think I'd rather have 25-29 year old Hurts than 36-40 year old Cousins.




RE: Is it riskier  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 5:58 pm : link
In comment 16469947 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
than Kirk Cousins contract (for example)? When you add in the rushing ability even though Cousins may be a better passer I think I'd rather have 25-29 year old Hurts than 36-40 year old Cousins.





i dont envy either contract but 90m of the fully guaranteed $ to cousins is in the next 2 years. in March 2026 they can move on pretty close to free/clear with just some prorated sb accelerating. they have 3 drafts to find a cost effective replacement (2024, 2025, or 2026) and id consider that if one of the top guys this year falls to #8 (or round 2). considering where they were there's no downside to shooting their shot both ways.

"cap hell" is 99% myth, but the hurts deal is one that looks so crazy to me that i think it has a chance to become the 1%. even if the #'s were exactly the same id have just structured it less gimmicky, like cousins or jones last year (which was most recent comp), and picked/chosen which years to restructure and which not to more in the moment instead of preemptively punting so much risk out so long. i respect roseman a lot and that they went all in, not unlike cousins hurts just isnt a player id have felt comfortable doing that with.
Well it's clear  
pjcas18 : 4/15/2024 6:21 pm : link
the Eagles think Hurts is "the guy" and will be for the next 4-5 years. If they're wrong it could be painful, but if they're right I still think by then they can get out of it pretty easily.

And even in 5 years Hurts is still 5 years younger than Cousins is today (just for example not to pick on Cousins).

they basically bought out Hurts prime IMO.
Michael Ginnitti of Spotrac did his own breakdown of Hurts' contract  
shyster : 4/15/2024 10:54 pm : link
at the same time Jason Fitzgerald did his.

Ginnitti does point out that the dead cap numbers on Hurts' Spotrac player page are not to be taken at face value, because they only reflect the initial full guarantees and not subsequent money that is virtually guaranteed.

Quote:
Don’t get sucked into thinking that the Eagles can walk away from Hurts after 2026 with just a slap on the wrist to their cash and cap pocketbooks. It’s not that simple.

The dead cap that appears on the contract right now only applies to elements of the deal that are fully guaranteed at signing ($110M + the carry over signing bonus proration from the rookie contract).

By the time we get to March of 2027 (presumably when the two sides could be looking to part), another $49.785M option bonus will have vested (adding $39.9M of bonus dead cap), & $22M of 2027 salary will already have become fully guaranteed. That’s an additional $61.8M of dead cap, raising the 2027 total to $106.5M.


Ginnitti's $106.5M number agrees with Fitzgerald's "Pre 2027 Option" number in his chart.

But Ginnitti then adds some numbers that are, on their face, at least somewhat better for the Eagles than Fitzgerald's:

Quote:
What about after 2027? $89.702M of dead cap
What about when the deal concludes after 2028? $86.5M of dead cap


Ginnitti also makes this observation:
Quote:
If at any point in time the team feels concerned about the future of Hurts as their starting QB, they can opt to decline one of those [option] bonuses, take on an absurdly large base salary/cap hit for a year, and then push out of the contract, despite what will certainly be a devastating dead cap hit in the following season.


spotrac - ( New Window )
RE: Well it's clear  
Eric on Li : 4/15/2024 11:25 pm : link
In comment 16470013 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
the Eagles think Hurts is "the guy" and will be for the next 4-5 years. If they're wrong it could be painful, but if they're right I still think by then they can get out of it pretty easily.

And even in 5 years Hurts is still 5 years younger than Cousins is today (just for example not to pick on Cousins).

they basically bought out Hurts prime IMO.


if the eagles end up wanting to move on and his contract isnt painful to get out of then there is no such thing as a painful contract. there are only a handful of contracts with as much dead money risk as hurts, and they are for much better players (burrow, herbert, lamar). he got paid to play like the mvp candidate he was in 2022 not what he was last year and that's a very high bar.
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