short answer is that big boards are pretty close to both how the NFL ends up drafting the players and the hit rates with how those players turn out.
| Overall, regardless of what extra information teams have and all the extra prep work that goes into the draft, the “amateur” draft process is pretty solid at identifying most players who will be drafted and producing overall outcomes that are not that far off from the actual NFL results despite having less resources on hand and should be capable of producing some pretty accurate simulations of draft outcomes. |
a lot more detail (& charts) at the link below, but here's the main one. the biggest difference is that the NFL does a little better at the top of the draft than the amateurs. basically they are better at the top 100 picks and then after that everything kind of normalizes. i would imagine the cuts where the amateurs look "better" are from players who the NFL correctly took higher.
one of the other interesting observations from a different cut:
I think one thing worth noting here is the salary outcomes of those who fall in the draft. While the draft does influence salary outcomes, the results would certainly indicate that those draft day fallers who will get touted as “great value” often are not performing at that level. Player’s who fell over 100 spots from the consensus had an average 2nd salary of just $694K which basically is the minimum during that timeframe. Players who fell 75 slots had just $1.8 million and the 25 spot fall worked out to $2.8 million. These were three of the four worth performers on the board. The other one was the $1.7M for those who were unlisted on the consensus. That tells me that while it’s a miss to not have those player’s listed, on average they are not standouts in any way shape or form.
On the other side of the spectrum the draft “reaches” have performed better than the ones we consider great value. Those who jump over 100 spots have an average 2nd salary of nearly $4 million. The 50 spot jump is at $3.5 million. So the NFL is probably getting something right there over where the consensus sees the draft. |
https://overthecap.com/looking-at-past-results-of-the-consensus-draft-board - (
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But I have to take the obvious dig here...
How much did Jones being a reach and his contraact skew these results 😏
But I have to take the obvious dig here...
How much did Jones being a reach and his contraact skew these results 😏
i think a high% would have brought him back last year even if it was on tag, and even that would been a positive outcome relative to the draft. people who hated the pick will always hate the pick, but that's not really tethered to the reality of what constitutes hits/misses in the draft.
WR Thomas Lewis for the Giants always stands out for me. 8Not that it matters but Mel Kiper's draft book had Lewis the 25th ranked WR and the Giants took in the top 30 picks of the entire draft...
Quote:
and the notion that many believe teams know so much more than amateurs, I remember when the Raiders picked Clelin Ferrell #4 in 2019. He predictably busted. Not sure why he sticks out so much more than most, but he's a reminder that these NFL personnel guys could sometimes stand to learn a thing or two from the talking heads.
WR Thomas Lewis for the Giants always stands out for me. 8Not that it matters but Mel Kiper's draft book had Lewis the 25th ranked WR and the Giants took in the top 30 picks of the entire draft...
Lewis really does stand out. My recollection is that the NYG explained that he was the pick because one of their scouts timed him at 4.2 something in a private workout a week before the draft. I may have the details off, but that was the general gist.
Ferrell was a reach and a bust, but he was also still the consensus 15th ranked prospect that year, so not the worst reach ever by consensus.
What was weird about that one was that it was a strong draft on the edge and they chose him over Josh Allen/Ed Oliver who were the consensus higher ranked DL.
Mayock recently did an interview where he acknowedlged that was a bad a pick but brought up a good point - he crushed the rest of that draft. Maxx Crosby in round 4 alone made up for the Ferrell pick but Josh Jacobs in round 2, Renfrow in round 5, and a few other good picks made it a legitimate really really good class.