As background, Joe Schoen acknowledged in yesterday's press conference that he is in a very different position than last draft when he had to wait a long time (I think he said the 15th pick) before the draft really began for the Giants. He also said the Giants are more than just one or two players away.
And that got me thinking about what he did last year when he targeted specific players and was willing to surrender draft capital to secure their services. He swapped 1st Rounders for Deonte Banks and surrendered the 160th and 240th picks. And he swapped 3rd Rounders for Jalin Hyatt and surrendered the 128th pick.
Given his remarks from yesterday (especially on the current state of the Giants roster), will Joe Schoen be reluctant to use his draft capital next week to move up for a specific player?
The obvious answer is it depends on what they truly think of the quarterbacks and what they are willing to give up. So they could have very few picks this year (and next).
On the flip side, he said yesterday this team is not one or two players away, he said a bunch of teams have called him (he's being honest or wants to drum up interest).
I came away more convinced if they can't get the QB, they may trade down.
I could also see them trading down and then trading up.
Weird thing is if you take away the four offensive linemen, his hit rate is actually really good, especially after round three, where the Giants were terrible under his predecessors.
But the four OLs they have taken haven't worked out to date.
Quote:
His hit rate so far is low percentage. Figure the more shots he gets the better the chances he gets lucky and that's what he needs. Luck.
Weird thing is if you take away the four offensive linemen, his hit rate is actually really good, especially after round three, where the Giants were terrible under his predecessors.
But the four OLs they have taken haven't worked out to date.
That's a nice way of putting it.
Something tells me the league is quaking just yet, or even the NFC East.
The obvious answer is it depends on what they truly think of the quarterbacks and what they are willing to give up. So they could have very few picks this year (and next).
On the flip side, he said yesterday this team is not one or two players away, he said a bunch of teams have called him (he's being honest or wants to drum up interest).
I came away more convinced if they can't get the QB, they may trade down.
I could also see them trading down and then trading up.
I am really feeling that if their QB is not there, they do trade back to get more picks. Yes they need WR #1. Thomas from LSU can do that in the 10-12 range. Of they can go DB or Fuaga...or roll the dice on Penix.
I think that the quick path to the playoffs is now dead in his eyes and a complete roster overhaul is the plan. More picks will work toward that end.
Quote:
His hit rate so far is low percentage. Figure the more shots he gets the better the chances he gets lucky and that's what he needs. Luck.
Weird thing is if you take away the four offensive linemen, his hit rate is actually really good, especially after round three, where the Giants were terrible under his predecessors.
But the four OLs they have taken haven't worked out to date.
I am absolutely convinced the OL failure is squarely on Johnson.
We're actually in a fantastic good position to improve this team. But the potential is also there to burn that positioning if we aren't acting clear minded about it and acting out of desperation.
But it also opens your eyes to a trade down. “Hey, if it costs me an arm and a leg to move up, maybe I can get get an arm and a leg to move down and stock up on picks”. Especially if the target isn’t there.
Regarding changing his thinking from lastbyear. I think if anything this has remained exactly the same as last year.
Draft didn’t start till pick 15 last year, because right after that was the run in CBs then WRs. He moved up for his target. But he also had trade downs lined up in case he couldn’t nab a targeted WR/CB.
Which I think is his exact same philosophy this year. Move up for a guy you have conviction on. If they are gone, tradedown. Regardless, be prepared for every situation in advance.
I would suggest that they are a free safety, a DT, a QB, a WR 1 and 2, a CB 2, a slot CB, a TE, a RB and depth at all positions except for maybe WR (they're fine from WR 3 down) from being a competitive team.
Given that there will be injuries and people leaving in FA along the way, you have to not only backfill but proactively accumulate depth all over.
This is a multi-year rebuild, not a quick fix. This team could win as few as 4 or possibly as many as 7- but that's the likely range of outcomes IMO. Moves made assuming that the players are there at the positions I listed above would be setting up for another 2023-type season.
You'd be hard pressed to find another team in the NFL that has spent more resources on the OL in the last 10 years than the Giants... we're talking Solder contracts, first round picks, 2nd round picks, etc.
The other issue for all four OLs they draft is they have all gotten hurt, three of them seriously and two of them in both seasons.
Quote:
A franchise QB, a WR1 and a CB2
I would suggest that they are a free safety, a DT, a QB, a WR 1 and 2, a CB 2, a slot CB, a TE, a RB and depth at all positions except for maybe WR (they're fine from WR 3 down) from being a competitive team.
Given that there will be injuries and people leaving in FA along the way, you have to not only backfill but proactively accumulate depth all over.
This is a multi-year rebuild, not a quick fix. This team could win as few as 4 or possibly as many as 7- but that's the likely range of outcomes IMO. Moves made assuming that the players are there at the positions I listed above would be setting up for another 2023-type season.
What team has good depth at every position group? A franchise QB and a WR1 makes this team a consistent playoff threat. The rest of the roster isn’t as bad as people make it out to be. They’re not spending major capital on two WRs the next two years, the WR2 is on the roster - whether that ends up being Hyatt or Robinson we’ll find out.
You'd be hard pressed to find another team in the NFL that has spent more resources on the OL in the last 10 years than the Giants... we're talking Solder contracts, first round picks, 2nd round picks, etc.
The other issue for all four OLs they draft is they have all gotten hurt, three of them seriously and two of them in both seasons.
I've said it at least a dozen time(and I still might be wrong) that the Tyre Phillips incident shows how terrible Johnson was, as just one obvious example. Also, how does JMS go from being fine to start the year, to piss poor by years end - go from no problems with stunts to start the year and total failure at the end - Justin Pugh comes in and clearly is better than anyone not named Thomas(or perhaps Phillips).
We're all set on the offensive line now? .... and for that matter, the Defensive line?
Quote:
A franchise QB, a WR1 and a CB2
I would suggest that they are a free safety, a DT, a QB, a WR 1 and 2, a CB 2, a slot CB, a TE, a RB and depth at all positions except for maybe WR (they're fine from WR 3 down) from being a competitive team.
Given that there will be injuries and people leaving in FA along the way, you have to not only backfill but proactively accumulate depth all over.
This is a multi-year rebuild, not a quick fix. This team could win as few as 4 or possibly as many as 7- but that's the likely range of outcomes IMO. Moves made assuming that the players are there at the positions I listed above would be setting up for another 2023-type season.
From being 5 players away.
Quote:
A franchise QB, a WR1 and a CB2
We're all set on the offensive line now? .... and for that matter, the Defensive line?
They added 3 offensive lineman this offseason, have arguably a top 5 tackle and a new offensive line coach. They have two of the best dlineman/pass rushers in the game and a pretty good one in Thibs.
Being X players away doesn’t mean you don’t have weaknesses, it’s from being able to compete. To do that you need an elite LT, have high end talent on the dline, have a true #1 corner, have a WR1 and a franchise QB. Those are the most important positions in the league. The Giants check all those boxes except the last two.
Perhaps he likes McCarthy, Penix, MHJ, or Odunze as well, but doesn't have as strong a conviction on any of them and would prefer to slide down to a position where he can still get one of those guys while picking up additional assets.
I would add RT to your list. Until Neal proves otherwise, or he gets swapped to G, its not a fixed position yet.
Given that, if the QB they want high is gone then I'm starting to agree with Eric and others that Giants trade down to pick up more draft Capitol and use that to move around and get the players they want.
I'm thinking a player they want may not be a top 4 QB (for the price), but one of the remaining 2. So if they can drop to 9 or 10 maybe they still get QB they want plus some extra picks.
Don't mistake what I am saying though, my point is this team can be a 9 win team, possible playoff team with the right bounces and better health on our OLINE. Same can be said for a number of teams.
What we are not is a couple of players away from consistently challenging the top teams in the league. That is more to Joe Schoen's point yesterday.
We need a Quarterback though if we are to make that jump up to that status. The question is do we go chase that guy now or wait until 25 off-season? if we do wait, is Daniel the starter or does Lock start and Devito get a lot of backup time?
I have made no secret that I want Drake Maye. Any negatives said about Maye pale in comparison to the all over the board comments about Josh Allen in 2018. At one point there were reports he couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. Tools are tools. He had them and the Bills made it work. I think Maye's issues are mechanics that can be corrected.
Jim Fassel took Kerry Collins, a fumbling machine and slow passer and changed the way he held the ball post snap (up around his chest vs lower to his hip), greatly reducing the time from starting motion to throwing the ball and his numbers jumped from there.
I think Maye's are somewhat foot work and somewhat where the ball is being held and that is correctable. I think Maye can be a star in this league..
But, if we cannot get our guy (whichever one the Giants deem to be their guy), then accumulating picks now and next year is better than taking a WR at 6..
On a related note, one of the interesting things JS said at his presser yesterday was that he was surprised by how many calls he'd already gotten about trading down. He probably shouldn't be. What we are hearing is that there is something of a consensus around the league that there are three legit elite prospects this year: Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison and Malik nabers, along with three elite-lite guys in Daniels, Odunze and Brock Bowers. It looks like there is an almost certainty that at least one of those elite guys is going to be available at #6. And I for one am having a tough time seeing the Giants pass on an elite prospect just to get more picks to try and fill more holes. My theory of late has been that championship teams aren't the ones with the fewest holes in their roster, but the ones with the most impact players that make the most impact players and that the Giants biggest 'hole right now is they just don't have many true impact players especially on offence.
PS Thanks again MS for the plug the other day.
PPS: Really nice interview Eric (on another thread)
PPPS: We can't say it often enough: Joe Schoen doesn't make the picks, the Giants organization does.
He's drafted two of the better defensive players in the class in 2022 and 2023. He's drafted some nice weapons at WR. He's drafted good starting calibers players in rounds 4 and 5.
Schoen's hit ratio has actually been fairly good. The biggest glaring miss is he drafted Evan Neal 7th overall and he has absolutely sucked so far.
They'll still get a great prospect and will get an extra 2nd round pick this year, and on top of that, a 1st round pick in 2025 that could be very high.
Schoen would be stupid not to take that deal. They may be able to draft one of their targets at that pick.
Optimistic on Banks and Hyatt but Thib is overrated.
Optimistic on Banks and Hyatt but Thib is overrated.
Your opinion that Schoen "missed badly" on JMS is a bit too soon of an evaluation. The guy has played like 12 games on a horrific OL.
Very intriguing to hear there may be a consensus of three legit elite prospects (Caleb Williams, Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers) and three elite-lite guys in (Daniels, Odunze and Brock Bowers.)
Where things could get real interesting / tense is if the Giants at #6 get to chose either one prospect from the legit elite group (perhaps Nabers) or JJ McDaniels from the elite-lite group. That would be worth the price of admission!
Optimistic on Banks and Hyatt but Thib is overrated.
It's way too early to say they messed up on Schmitz. And Ezeudu has hardly played due to the injuries. And when he did, the morons played him at LT.
Quote:
Missing badly on Neal (#7), JMS (#57) and Ezeudu (#67) screws all of it up and while I like Robinson (favorite player he's drafted so far) I don't have much for Bellinger, Belton, Flott, Gray, etc.
Optimistic on Banks and Hyatt but Thib is overrated.
It's way too early to say they messed up on Schmitz. And Ezeudu has hardly played due to the injuries. And when he did, the morons played him at LT.
Maybe on JMS but with my eyes and reading what Sy has to say before AND after the pick including game reviews, I'm less than optimistic. Ezeudu inspires little faith considering they went out and signed 2 OG's immediately once FA opened.
Quote:
In comment 16475191 Harvest Blend said:
Quote:
Missing badly on Neal (#7), JMS (#57) and Ezeudu (#67) screws all of it up and while I like Robinson (favorite player he's drafted so far) I don't have much for Bellinger, Belton, Flott, Gray, etc.
Optimistic on Banks and Hyatt but Thib is overrated.
It's way too early to say they messed up on Schmitz. And Ezeudu has hardly played due to the injuries. And when he did, the morons played him at LT.
Maybe on JMS but with my eyes and reading what Sy has to say before AND after the pick including game reviews, I'm less than optimistic. Ezeudu inspires little faith considering they went out and signed 2 OG's immediately once FA opened.
It signals they are not getting stuck shorthanded by injuries again. Aside from Runyan and Eluemunor, those were lower level vets, fairly solid at their positions.
I like Ezeudu. Like Eric said, and even more - why not let the guy learn one position instead of 4. He would have been a decent LG if they left him there.
Just how in the hell does a rookie get worse as the year went on? How does he start missing stunts later in the year when he had no problems early in the year? He didn't get stupid as the year went on.
Long story short, regardless of how you feel about Bobby Johnson, they did not put these guys in the best position to succeed last year (shitty guards on both sides of JMS, Ezeudu at LT) and these guys were also hurt.
It's amazing where we are 360+ days later.
The gold medal result of the draft next week would be getting the lottery QB and grabbing a WR on day two.
The silver medal result would be trading out of 6, moving down and collecting another pick or two. The mix of players drafted at the point are hopefully a mix of OL, WR, Corner, DT.
I see no bronze medal result.
The tin medal result would be drafting a WR at #6, not getting a QB, and essentially declaring the triple down on Jones.
Again, he's only 23 years old. It will be only 2 years before he's in his prime as a NFL player and he had 11.5 sacks last season.
It's amazing where we are 360+ days later.
The gold medal result of the draft next week would be getting the lottery QB and grabbing a WR on day two.
The silver medal result would be trading out of 6, moving down and collecting another pick or two. The mix of players drafted at the point are hopefully a mix of OL, WR, Corner, DT.
I see no bronze medal result.
The tin medal result would be drafting a WR at #6, not getting a QB, and essentially declaring the triple down on Jones.
You do realize that there may not be a QB worth drafting at #6 if things proceed as close to expected.
It is not a triple down if they are "stuck" without Jones' replacement. Frankly that is a whiny POV. We all want somebody new and likely Schoen does too. Doesn't mean you crap the bed if the guy you want is not there and other teams do not want to trade up to take #6. To make a trade you need a partner and that partner needs to want a player that is available at #6. It may not happen. So they then need to take the BPA. So expect the worst and see them take a WR at #6 as the most likely scenario.