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Albert Breer's QB Confidential

Strahan91 : 4/19/2024 11:05 am
Similar to a couple of other articles posted recently, filled with quotes from scouts, coaches and team execs. I'm admittedly bias because I've really liked Penix but this quote caught my eye:

“To be honest, I see it as Caleb and then 2A, 2B between Jayden and Penix,” an NFC OC says. “I just think as far as a thrower, coming in, he’ll be a top-five pure arm talent in the NFL. When you look at some of the other guys, it’s obviously Josh Allen, Mahomes, Herbert, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers. I think he’s kind of that next guy, in terms of what he can do with his arm. It’s quick. It’s powerful. There’s not a part of the field that he can’t touch. I think from a pure arm standpoint, it is pretty special with what he can do.”

Link - ( New Window )
I’m in  
UConn4523 : 4/19/2024 11:10 am : link
.
If we can't get one of the top 3  
Darwinian : 4/19/2024 11:13 am : link
I'm all for finding a way to draft a weapon and Penix.
I like Penix a lot too  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 11:16 am : link
Would be thrilled to come away from this draft with him as a Giant.
Coaches seem to like him more than scouts  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 11:16 am : link
.
He is the definition of injury prone  
Rudy5757 : 4/19/2024 11:17 am : link
It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.
RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 11:27 am : link
In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:
It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.


And played every game the last two years. That is something our current guy has not done.
RE: RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
JT039 : 4/19/2024 11:28 am : link
In comment 16475156 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:


Quote:


It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.



And played every game the last two years. That is something our current guy has not done.


Will he continue to play the more he gets hit. He was not hit at Washington. And the one game he was - he got injured that hurt his throwing towards the end of the game.

He wont have the luxury of just standing in the pocket with the best OL and best WRs like he did in college.
RE: Coaches seem to like him more than scouts  
sb from NYT Forum : 4/19/2024 11:31 am : link
In comment 16475145 Go Terps said:
Quote:
.


Scouts are probably scared of his age and injury history.
RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
PatersonPlank : 4/19/2024 11:33 am : link
In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:
It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.


At the start of camp it will be 4 years since his knee injury, he's as healthy as anyone
I really liked watching Penix play this year  
Greg from LI : 4/19/2024 11:36 am : link
I get that there are flaws but he throws such a beautiful deep ball.
RE: RE: RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 11:38 am : link
In comment 16475159 JT039 said:
Quote:
In comment 16475156 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:


Quote:


It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.



And played every game the last two years. That is something our current guy has not done.



Will he continue to play the more he gets hit. He was not hit at Washington. And the one game he was - he got injured that hurt his throwing towards the end of the game.

He wont have the luxury of just standing in the pocket with the best OL and best WRs like he did in college.


All reports say his knee is structurally sound. Nothing I have read says he is somehow more likely to injure his knee again than anyone else in this class. If the Giants medical people say otherwise than certainly take a pass.

But when it comes to pure arm talent, imo only Williams is in his class out of this crop of guys. He was dangerous with the ball in his hands and his left very few plays out on the field. My concern with Maye is that he misses a lot of plays he should make. Maybe that can be coached out?

I think there is a steep drop off after those four.
RE: I really liked watching Penix play this year  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 11:44 am : link
In comment 16475175 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
I get that there are flaws but he throws such a beautiful deep ball.


After so many years of dreary football, get this guy throwing downfield to Hyatt? Hell yes.
RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
UConn4523 : 4/19/2024 11:48 am : link
In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:
Quote:
It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.


It’s fine if you think he’s too risky to take, but I don’t see how Jones being injury prone is relevant. Picking Penix means Jones is done, we should make decisions based on what’s in front of us. Also, not liking him at 47 is wild.
I am not too worried about Penix injuries  
JT039 : 4/19/2024 11:49 am : link
But can he makes plays under duress. The times he was under duress - he struggled and with our OL… eek!

Plus people say he can run but he hasn’t shown the ability to do it consistently.
And Mike I just re-read  
JT039 : 4/19/2024 11:52 am : link
Initial post. I should point will he continue to play at a high level the more he gets hit.

He got hit a lot during the Michigan game and he didn’t play well. Plus he was holding his side and/or ribs too.

Just something I noticed.
RE: RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 11:53 am : link
In comment 16475202 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:


Quote:


It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.



It’s fine if you think he’s too risky to take, but I don’t see how Jones being injury prone is relevant. Picking Penix means Jones is done, we should make decisions based on what’s in front of us. Also, not liking him at 47 is wild.


If Schoen has information that Penix will drop past Oakland and Seattle, the prospect of pairing him and Odunze together with the Giants...
RE: RE: RE: He is the definition of injury prone  
BleedBlue46 : 4/19/2024 11:55 am : link
In comment 16475215 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16475202 UConn4523 said:


Quote:


In comment 16475146 Rudy5757 said:


Quote:


It’s not a question of talent, it’s how much is he going to be on the field. 2 knees, a dislocated throwing shoulder and an injury to the other shoulder. Season ending injuries multiple times.

Buyer beware. I would not draft him in the 1st or 2nd round. Too big of a risk. We currently have a guy with similar injuries, no thanks.



It’s fine if you think he’s too risky to take, but I don’t see how Jones being injury prone is relevant. Picking Penix means Jones is done, we should make decisions based on what’s in front of us. Also, not liking him at 47 is wild.



If Schoen has information that Penix will drop past Oakland and Seattle, the prospect of pairing him and Odunze together with the Giants...


That's my dream first two picks right now. Schoen did say they have a good feel for where guys will go in their evaluation process. I feel like it'd 50-50 for Penix to slide or be taken before pick 16.
That’s a dream scenario  
UConn4523 : 4/19/2024 11:56 am : link
Hell of a risk though
RE: And Mike I just re-read  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 11:57 am : link
In comment 16475212 JT039 said:
Quote:
Initial post. I should point will he continue to play at a high level the more he gets hit.

He got hit a lot during the Michigan game and he didn’t play well. Plus he was holding his side and/or ribs too.

Just something I noticed.


That was one game against a very good defense. It is a data point for sure, but does not discount any of the other 15 or so games I watched him play where he simply shredded defenses like they were a pop warner team.

He did have great receivers and he did play Pac-12 defenses, but so many of the throws were passes you and I could have hauled in.
RE: I am not too worried about Penix injuries  
BleedBlue46 : 4/19/2024 11:57 am : link
In comment 16475205 JT039 said:
Quote:
But can he makes plays under duress. The times he was under duress - he struggled and with our OL… eek!

Plus people say he can run but he hasn’t shown the ability to do it consistently.


This and the injury history are my two big concerns, for him to really thrive we need a good o line which we have obviously been cursed with the inability to assemble a good o line for over a decade. Maybe Penix could break the curse?
RE: That’s a dream scenario  
Strahan91 : 4/19/2024 11:59 am : link
In comment 16475224 UConn4523 said:
Quote:
Hell of a risk though

If Schoen could pull it off it'd be quite the coup
I am also biased to QBs  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 12:02 pm : link
who do two things:

1. Elevate the play of their team
2. Overcome adversity

Before he was blessed with the talent he had at Washington, Penix had Indiana football ranked in the top 10. He had help at Washington of course, but that team took another step when DeBoer and Penix arrived.

All of these guys will experience adversity in the NFL, whether injuries, poor performance or both. We know Penix can come back from injuries and play at an extremely high level. It's on tape.

To me he just feels like a guy that is set up to succeed in the NFL. If the medicals check out I think he is a terrific prospect.
RE: RE: I am not too worried about Penix injuries  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 12:03 pm : link
In comment 16475232 BleedBlue46 said:
Quote:
In comment 16475205 JT039 said:


Quote:


But can he makes plays under duress. The times he was under duress - he struggled and with our OL… eek!

Plus people say he can run but he hasn’t shown the ability to do it consistently.



This and the injury history are my two big concerns, for him to really thrive we need a good o line which we have obviously been cursed with the inability to assemble a good o line for over a decade. Maybe Penix could break the curse?


If we keep having a shitty line it may not matter which one of these guys we draft. We can't factor in "the line can't block" into the long term QB projection.
If you want to get a QB  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 12:04 pm : link
to put behind a line that can't block, just get Milton. He is built like a tank.
Penix is an absolute remote thrower for me in the 1st round.  
DeVito32 : 4/19/2024 12:11 pm : link
I don’t care how good his arm is. With his injury history, it’s too much of a risk. Two ACL surgeries to the same knee. How many more can he take? Don’t tell me a 3rd or 4th ACL surgery wont severely affect his career.

I’m not saying I agree with this part, but how many BBIers complain about our medical staff causing all the Giants players injuries? And what about MetLife’s turf that it’s been well known throughout the NFL to have an effect on knee injuries?

And more importantly is his two season ending shoulder injuries. Wait until he gets to the NFL and gets pounded week in and week out. He’s never taken a beating in college like he’s going to get weekly in the pros.

This is all before he even steps foot into an NFL game. Hard Pass.
RE: RE: And Mike I just re-read  
PatersonPlank : 4/19/2024 12:17 pm : link
In comment 16475227 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
In comment 16475212 JT039 said:


Quote:


Initial post. I should point will he continue to play at a high level the more he gets hit.

He got hit a lot during the Michigan game and he didn’t play well. Plus he was holding his side and/or ribs too.

Just something I noticed.



That was one game against a very good defense. It is a data point for sure, but does not discount any of the other 15 or so games I watched him play where he simply shredded defenses like they were a pop warner team.

He did have great receivers and he did play Pac-12 defenses, but so many of the throws were passes you and I could have hauled in.


His play vs Texas in the Semi was the difference in the game. The WRs were pretty well covered and he just put it exactly where it had to be. That was one of the most impressive games I've seen a college QB play
RE: RE: RE: And Mike I just re-read  
BleedBlue46 : 4/19/2024 12:20 pm : link
In comment 16475262 PatersonPlank said:
Quote:
In comment 16475227 Mike from Ohio said:


Quote:


In comment 16475212 JT039 said:


Quote:


Initial post. I should point will he continue to play at a high level the more he gets hit.

He got hit a lot during the Michigan game and he didn’t play well. Plus he was holding his side and/or ribs too.

Just something I noticed.



That was one game against a very good defense. It is a data point for sure, but does not discount any of the other 15 or so games I watched him play where he simply shredded defenses like they were a pop warner team.

He did have great receivers and he did play Pac-12 defenses, but so many of the throws were passes you and I could have hauled in.



His play vs Texas in the Semi was the difference in the game. The WRs were pretty well covered and he just put it exactly where it had to be. That was one of the most impressive games I've seen a college QB play


Agreed, that game blew me away.
DeVito32  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 12:27 pm : link
I'll defer to the medical people on medical issues. I have not heard about any structural issues or degenerative conditions that make him more likely to be injured in the pros than any of the other prospects.

If he had missed time virtually every year like Jones, then yes, hard pass. But he has two years in a row where he played every game. He can stay on the field.
And this from that same article  
GFAN52 : 4/19/2024 12:32 pm : link
“Good touch, good accuracy, and can throw the s— out of the ball in that offense, but you might have to cater the most to him,” says an AFC exec. “He doesn’t have the best pocket mobility, he’s a little awkward and gangly. I don’t think he’s a first-round pick … You get in the heat of the moment, and things are falling apart around him, it gives you some pause.”

I'm surely not taking him at 6.
Penix against Texas was the best thing I saw from these QBs  
Go Terps : 4/19/2024 12:35 pm : link
It was also, I thought, what looked most translatable to the NFL.

People lay the Michigan game at Penix's feet, and don't penalize Odunze or Fautanu for letting themselves get pushed around all over the field. Never made sense to me.

The medical concerns are absolutely legit. I was encouraged that Penix did all the pre draft stuff (unlike some) and looked healthy and explosive. But the medicals obviously have to check out.

But no one is convincing me McCarthy and Maye are better players. You want to tell me those guys project to being better pros than college players, that's fine. I'm not sure how true that is but ok.

But based on what we've seen on the field those guys aren't as good as Penix. No way.
Penix  
crooza172 : 4/19/2024 12:35 pm : link
is great. I'd be thrilled with him and a WR. Lets be honest with ourselves here........in the NFL, everyone is injury prone. Barkley was considered durable and so was Anthony Richardson. Anyone can get hurt at any point in time.

"Scared money don't make money." Joe Shoen
Penix  
TyreeHelmet : 4/19/2024 12:36 pm : link
Does his previous ACL tears make him more suspectible to another ACL or other knee injuries? Would another ACL tear be significantly worse than someone tearing it a first time?

I honestly don’t know the answer to this question. But to me if there’s anyway to grab this guy later in first, that’s a great roll of the dice.
Schoen  
Toth029 : 4/19/2024 12:43 pm : link
Isn't rolling the dice on a QB with as many questions, on tape and medically, as Penix and losing valuable, necessary 2025 picks. To move back up in the 2nd, you lose a lot of draft capital. If he's worth that, you simply take him at #6 or so a slight trade down.

He admitted it is a rich WR draft.
RE: Penix  
csb : 4/19/2024 12:43 pm : link
In comment 16475288 TyreeHelmet said:
Quote:
Does his previous ACL tears make him more suspectible to another ACL or other knee injuries? Would another ACL tear be significantly worse than someone tearing it a first time?

I honestly don’t know the answer to this question. But to me if there’s anyway to grab this guy later in first, that’s a great roll of the dice.


Ask Frank Gore - he seemed to be a guy who figured it out. So much goes into durability - many players have a lot of injuries while they are growing and then are able to grow out of it when they mature. Others are just always injury-prone. I wouldn't be worried about his knee's in particularly, just his ability to play 17+ games per year.
GFAN52  
Mike from Ohio : 4/19/2024 12:45 pm : link
All of them have warts. For me McCarthy is the guy I really don't want because of this (from the Pelissero article Sean linked in another thread):

Quote:
Said an AFC executive: "He's got arm talent. He's fast. He is a smaller man, so you worry about the pounding. I don't think he's a good processor. [Though he] actually got a good S2 (cognitive test score); I'm surprised he took it because nobody's taking it. Look, I don't penalize him like a lot of people do -- 'Well, they only threw the ball f---ing eight times in this game.' They've done that forever. What I don't like is you can watch a play and you can tell, OK, they're going to this guy. And if the defense calls it, they've got it covered, he will f---ing wait and wait and wait and wait and start moving around and moving around and he is throwing it to that f---ing dude. You're like, Goddamn, look somewhere else!

I went to youtube to see Odunze highlights  
Sky King : 4/19/2024 12:57 pm : link
But came away more impressed with Penix. Odunze was not getting separation, no burst, not breaking tackles and these were his HIGHLIGHTS!

Penix was moving in the pocket, avoiding the rush, going through progressions and rocketing the ball on target.

Injuries, schjuries. Give me Penix.
Penix is my favorite realistic option at # 6  
Formerly TD : 4/19/2024 1:24 pm : link
Agree that he’s in that next tier after Caleb. Whether he’s in that tier with one, two or three others is hard to say but he’s the second best passer coming out this year.

I like Maye and Daniels, too. Not sold on JJM or Nix but at this point would be happy to come away with any of the top 6 QBs this year. Goota start taking swings!
Really good read. Thanks for posting this.  
ThomasG : 4/19/2024 1:24 pm : link
One of the better write-ups you will find out there on the QB prospects this year.
RE: DeVito32  
DeVito32 : 4/19/2024 5:21 pm : link
In comment 16475276 Mike from Ohio said:
Quote:
I'll defer to the medical people on medical issues. I have not heard about any structural issues or degenerative conditions that make him more likely to be injured in the pros than any of the other prospects.

If he had missed time virtually every year like Jones, then yes, hard pass. But he has two years in a row where he played every game. He can stay on the field.


Jones didn’t miss time in college if I’m not mistaken. Penix had 4 consecutive years where he had season ending injuries. The last 2 he was healthy. But with that history and lack of getting hit in college compared to what punishment he’s going to receive on a weekly basis in the pros, you can’t be confident that he’s going to be able to withstand the beating he’s going to take for the next decade. You can’t use the #6 in the draft on him.

And just as fans, with all the injuries we’ve had from guys who never even missed time in college, you can feel confident using a top pick on a QB with that injury history? I sure as hell don’t. I’ll be shocked if the Giants select him.
RE: I went to youtube to see Odunze highlights  
Formerly TD : 4/19/2024 5:37 pm : link
In comment 16475310 Sky King said:
Quote:
But came away more impressed with Penix. Odunze was not getting separation, no burst, not breaking tackles and these were his HIGHLIGHTS!

Penix was moving in the pocket, avoiding the rush, going through progressions and rocketing the ball on target.

Injuries, schjuries. Give me Penix.


Ditto. I don’t get the Odunze love from the same people who crap on Penix. Penix made Odunze more than Odunze made Penix.

Contrast that with Nix and Daniels, whose WRs were getting wide, wide open regularly and/or putting up ridiculous RAC numbers.

I think Penix’ age and injury history are clouding some preople’s judgement on his game. And in a few years if he’s flinging the ball everywhere for 4500 yards and 40 TDs, people will wonder how he fell to XX pick in the draft.

As Terps and others have stated, he’s already shown the passing ability people are PROJECTING others to one day have. Of course college production does not necessarily equal pro production but there’s a lot to like there.
RE: RE: I went to youtube to see Odunze highlights  
BleedBlue46 : 4/19/2024 5:58 pm : link
In comment 16475750 Formerly TD said:
Quote:
In comment 16475310 Sky King said:


Quote:


But came away more impressed with Penix. Odunze was not getting separation, no burst, not breaking tackles and these were his HIGHLIGHTS!

Penix was moving in the pocket, avoiding the rush, going through progressions and rocketing the ball on target.

Injuries, schjuries. Give me Penix.



Ditto. I don’t get the Odunze love from the same people who crap on Penix. Penix made Odunze more than Odunze made Penix.

Contrast that with Nix and Daniels, whose WRs were getting wide, wide open regularly and/or putting up ridiculous RAC numbers.

I think Penix’ age and injury history are clouding some preople’s judgement on his game. And in a few years if he’s flinging the ball everywhere for 4500 yards and 40 TDs, people will wonder how he fell to XX pick in the draft.

As Terps and others have stated, he’s already shown the passing ability people are PROJECTING others to one day have. Of course college production does not necessarily equal pro production but there’s a lot to like there.


I got a gut feeling Penix is going to have a very good and healthy nfl career.
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