Just wanted to share what I think Joe Schoen's assessment on QB situation and his draft strategy is. To clarify, this is not what my assessment of Giants' QB situation, but what I think Schoen's is. I treated the exercise like watching a thriller movie and guessing who the murderer is based on all hints from all angles. And it's fun.
JS seems to be a smart, calm, analytical and thoughtful person. Understanding his personality is important to predict his movements. Of course, I'm not even remotely close to him. All is based on the limited news coverage.
1. JS doesn't rush to decisions. He didn't pick up the 5th year option of DJ. He needs to run his due dilligence process to make decisions on the most important position, even if that means he needs to pay a price for that process. This is very consistent with his personality.
2. JS spent a full year evaluating DJ and his conclusion is very clear. JS got a full season of real games, and all the practices, camps, workouts, conversations, off-field activities, blah, blah. In short, he got all the opportunities he wanted for the evaluation. And I'm sure he did a comprehensive analysis, with input from the coaching team and owners. The analysis is probably enough to fill a library. And he concluded DJ is Giants' franchise QB. The contract reflects that conclusion.
3. The conclusion is highly unlikely overturned by the 6 games DJ played in 2023 season, espeically when the 6 games were played under very unusal circumstances. The OL completely collapsed in those games. The leading RB injured. The key WR injured. And most of the 6 teams they played against were among the best teams in the league. Taking into account of those, no reasonably person would overturn a conclusion from a full year process because of the 6 games in those scenarios, certainly not JS. A person like JS with that personality is usually very confident in his approach and decisions from his approach.
4. However after 2023 season JS's confidence in DJ is for sure declining. But the main concerns are over the injury. That's the biggest uncertainty. But many players recovered from ACL playing totally fine, including Nix whom many here are advocating. For the neck injury, DJ was cleared to play after the neck injury last season, which implied it was minor. And he confirmed that in his most recent interview. It's still a concern, but not significant enough to warrant a full replacement.
5. 2024 draft is a deep class of QBs. And Giants have a great draft position.
With all the above, I think what JS would do in the draft is:
- Interested and willing to draft a QB he believes in if that QB falls to 6 or the price to trade up is reasonable. However, Giant's is not desperate to draft a QB. Giants' will not engage in a bidding war. Giants don't feel they have to draft a QB this year.
- Some teams behind seem to more desperate, which would raise the price of trading up and reduce the chance that the QB JS likes falls to 6. This means Giants more likely will draft a WR in round 1.
- Giants are not 1 or 2 players away. So Giants are not likely to use next year's 1st round as a trading asset.
Again, this is not what I think Giants should do but what I think JS will do.
I do think he is not afraid to make a big move (giving up a lot) for a prospect he loves.
But I don't see it.
I don't think Schoen is that good a poker player. Schoen and Daboll's rhetoric on Jones since January has been the same identical talking point, almost legalise in nature.
In all my years of following the team, I can't recall this franchise ever scouting this many quarterbacks this hard (internet does change things, but you get my drift).
There was no push back at yesterday's press conference after the barrage of QB replacement questions. Nothing like, "Guys, guys, guys... we are are just following our process, but we are happy with our quarterback."
I'm still not convinced Jones sees the field again for the Giants. That $23 million cap hit hangs over their heads.
I think more likely, they want one of the top 4 QB's, don't think any will be there at 6, and are surprised at the amount the Vikings and others are willing to trade up to get those 4 QB's. Given the high price, the fact that the team isn't even close to competing, and they're stuck with Jones this year regardless, they'll either take the best of what's left at 6 or look to trade down.
I don't think it has to do with them believing in Jones though.
But the fact remains that Schoen and Giants scouts have spent a TON of time evaluating and interviewing QB’s. You may think it’s all for nothing, but I wholeheartedly disagree.
He did take a ton of time to evaluate Jones in 2022. And that evaluation was dead wrong. You can win games with Jones in a gimmicky offense for a while where your QB is primarily a runner until the league catches up to it. Then you are only going to be able to beat the 2 or 3 worst defenses in the league.
Teams happy with their quarterbacks don't talk like this either.
I'm still not convinced Jones sees the field again for the Giants. That $23 million cap hit hangs over their heads.
Will be screaming this from the mountain all offseason: it is insane to put him on the field with that cap hit if he gets injured.
However, Schoen got it wrong with DJ...plain and simple. And he knows it. And the injury concerns now only mean Schoen has to move fast to rectify his mistake at the QB position.
So in the past 6+ months he is doing everything he can to find and invest in a new QB prospect. He may not be able to execute on one, but it won't be for a lack of trying nor will it be because he still wants DJ moving forward.
I think JS tries hard to get a QB high but maybe he plays the long game and trades back to build the roster better.
Left eye intense, right eye feeling the pressure.
But I don't see it.
I don't think Schoen is that good a poker player. Schoen and Daboll's rhetoric on Jones since January has been the same identical talking point, almost legalise in nature.
In all my years of following the team, I can't recall this franchise ever scouting this many quarterbacks this hard (internet does change things, but you get my drift).
There was no push back at yesterday's press conference after the barrage of QB replacement questions. Nothing like, "Guys, guys, guys... we are are just following our process, but we are happy with our quarterback."
Exactly. If it's all just due diligence, why aren't the Cardinals and Chargers evaluating all these guys by flying all over the country and going to dinners.
Put it another way, if they draft a QB, it's more likely because they have strong conviction that the QB would be a top 5 QB in the league, not because they are done with DJ. They will not go through the QB list and draft in the way like: if the higher ranked one is not avaiable, we will draft the next one avaiable. I don't see that as likely at all.
LAC and AZ have talented, gifted, playmaking QBs.
LAC and AZ have talented, gifted, playmaking QBs.
Of course. If NYG believed that Jones was the guy, they wouldn't be on the QB tour.
Put it another way, if they draft a QB, it's more likely because they have strong conviction that the QB would be a top 5 QB in the league, not because they are done with DJ. They will not go through the QB list and draft in the way like: if the higher ranked one is not avaiable, we will draft the next one avaiable. I don't see that as likely at all.
I agree with Eric, that besides Jones' play being an enigma, the $23M injury clause for 2025 is a big factor.
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Well, it should seem obvious why.
LAC and AZ have talented, gifted, playmaking QBs.
Of course. If NYG believed that Jones was the guy, they wouldn't be on the QB tour.
If they were dimwitted enough to resign Jones in the first place, they may think they are being clever giving the impression they want to move on...
Sure, this could be farfetched. But I'm not ready to rule it out.
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In comment 16475484 bw in dc said:
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Well, it should seem obvious why.
LAC and AZ have talented, gifted, playmaking QBs.
Of course. If NYG believed that Jones was the guy, they wouldn't be on the QB tour.
If they were dimwitted enough to resign Jones in the first place, they may think they are being clever giving the impression they want to move on...
Sure, this could be farfetched. But I'm not ready to rule it out.
The way Schoen seemed genuinely glowing about DJ in 2022 made me want to hurl. I still wonder about that too. If that's the case, he can kick rocks after next year.
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In comment 16475484 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Well, it should seem obvious why.
LAC and AZ have talented, gifted, playmaking QBs.
Of course. If NYG believed that Jones was the guy, they wouldn't be on the QB tour.
If they were dimwitted enough to resign Jones in the first place, they may think they are being clever giving the impression they want to move on...
Sure, this could be farfetched. But I'm not ready to rule it out.
If this is Schoen's naive sentiment, he will go WR at 6. Otherwise, he will trade down or go QB.
There was also the Seattle GM comment about Lock going somewhere with a chance to start.
This suggests at a minimum Jones will not be starting at QB at the beginning of the season. This also suggests he may never start again for the Giants.
If that’s the case, I don’t see how the Giants don’t come away with a QB in this draft. The only way it doesn’t happen in the 1st is going to be due to circumstances outside of their control. And if it doesn’t happen in the 1st, I’m sure they’ll take one of the lower tiered players later in the draft.