Archived Thread

#2 Pick Betting Line Movement

Giantophile : 4/20/2024 11:44 am

The lines have moved considerably the last few days. Daniels was an overwhelming favorite to go 2 and is now down to -135 with Maye at even money.

A lot of people are citing that tweet from Daniels agent which doesn't seem like a big deal. I think -135 is a mighty good bet, Is there something the books know that the public doesn't (or at least something more than usual)?

I don’t think the bookies have any inside info,

Section331 : 4/20/2024 11:48 am : link

my guess is that the betting action has swung to Maye after Daniels’ agent’s comments. I’ve been saying all along that JD would be DC’s pick, and I still believe that.

RE: I don’t think the bookies have any inside info,

mfjmfj : 4/20/2024 11:55 am : link

In comment 16476630 Section331 said:

Quote:

my guess is that the betting action has swung to Maye after Daniels’ agent’s comments. I’ve been saying all along that JD would be DC’s pick, and I still believe that.

This is always the way it works. Bettors set lines not bookies. Bookies are just the vehicle through which they do it. The stock exchange does not set prices. The buyers and seller do.

If the Commanders take Maye we'll see how feel about McCarthy

j_rud : 4/20/2024 11:56 am : link

In that scenario I think a trade down is much more likely, and I've really warmed to the idea of stacking the defense.

Do they have inside knowledge?

ThreePoints : 4/20/2024 11:58 am : link

Probably not. They just want to make money.

Move the lines = more discussion/speculation = more attention = more bets.

It's really not that hard. Vegas always wins.

Bookies doen't know any more than people

ZogZerg : 4/20/2024 12:36 pm : link

that pay attention.

I think it's a combination of the agent tweet

UberAlias : 4/20/2024 1:05 pm : link

and Schefter making statements that were less committal on Daniels than he made it sound a few days ago.

Call me a sucker

The Dude : 4/20/2024 1:12 pm : link

but since it moved to -115, along with BBI asshats... I took Daniels..

I'll send the bill to the asshats if that doesnt happen lol

I took over

Eli owns all : 4/20/2024 1:26 pm : link

4.5 qbs first round for -250. Line is 🫤 but it should hit easily. Or I hope lol

I have Daniels

pjcas18 : 4/20/2024 1:35 pm : link

going 2nd at -150 on DK and I have $200 bet on it.

I didn't see -115 anywhere or I would have jumped on it.

Why do people pay attention to this?

blueblood : 4/20/2024 1:40 pm : link

just always seems to me that they are trying to move money around.. much less a predictor of what is going to happen.

I missed the tweet by Daniel’s agent

Mike in Prescott : 4/20/2024 2:02 pm : link

Can someone post or summarize?

RE: I missed the tweet by Daniel’s agent

Giantophile : 4/20/2024 2:15 pm : link

In comment 16476827 Mike in Prescott said:

Quote:

Can someone post or summarize?

He was expressing frustration that Washington had all the quarterback prospects come visit together and see how they interacted with one another. To be fair it did seem amateurish and stupid but I was surprised he said so publicly.

Anyway Fan Duel has Daniels at -135 right now, I hit it pretty aggressively.

RE: Call me a sucker

BJacobs The Tiptoe Bandit : 4/20/2024 8:05 pm : link

In comment 16476738 The Dude said:

Quote:

but since it moved to -115, along with BBI asshats... I took Daniels..

I'll send the bill to the asshats if that doesnt happen lol

Same. Im in for 100 seems like as.safe a bet as any

RE: If the Commanders take Maye we'll see how feel about McCarthy

TinVA : 4/21/2024 8:57 am : link

In comment 16476640 j_rud said:

Quote:

In that scenario I think a trade down is much more likely, and I've really warmed to the idea of stacking the defense.

I agree with a trade down, I think McCarthy is "fools gold". Take a flyer on Rattler in the third round.