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No Surprise, The Draft all Comes Down to Coaching

christian : 4/20/2024 12:00 pm
December 11, 2023 is a critical day in the history of the New York Giants. That's the day the undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito led the Giants to a win against a playoff bound Packers team on national TV. The same Tommy Devito who 43 days earlier was barely entrusted enough to hand the ball off in a dismal overtime loss to the Jets.

What all Giants fans should have realized after that game is Brian Daboll is a terrific offensive coach. In a little more than a month's time, Daboll pulled a mastodon out of his hat. And for those paying attention it came on the back of pulling a brontosaurus out of his hat the previous year with Daniel Jones.

On Thursday Joe Schoen will face the biggest challenge of his early tenure as GM -- whether or not to do what's required to pick a quarterback early in the first round of the draft. Luckily he has the benefit of knowing the guy who will groom that potential pick is pretty capable of magic.

The entire draft complex, from team employees to the media, to the fans have their favorite. And that's well and good for fun and excitement leading up to the most important day in the year for bad football teams.

But Scheon doesn't have to have a favorite. He just needs to make a simple decision: if I pick a quarterback early in round one, can Brian Daboll make him play better than Daniel Jones?

That's it. Because whoever this hypothetical quarterback is, will certainly be cheaper. And most certainly will be healthier. And based on five years of evidence, will probably be better.

If you like Jones, you'll love the next guy. If you like Drake Maye, you'll love JJ McCarthy as a Giant. If you like McCarthy, you'll love Maye as Giant. Because anyone of these potential quarterbacks will be an order of magnitude better fit than Daniel Jones.
I don't agree that  
mfjmfj : 4/20/2024 12:21 pm : link
it is a guarantee of even a likelihood that these guys will be better than DJ. Based on history each of them is less than 50% to ever be a competent starter and hate him or not, DJ has seasons as a competent starter.

More importantly, I really do not want to spend a lot of draft capital on the category of "someone who will at least be better than DJ". If you think DJ is/can be good why bother? If you think he sucks the distance between better than DJ and a playoff winning QB is huge. I am fine spending as much capital as the management wants to get a QB. But that better not be their standard. If so, they should be fired.
 
christian : 4/20/2024 12:40 pm : link
The point is Daboll increases the odds the quarterback will succeed, so say the odds of a rookie working out is 50/50, playing for Daboll increases that.

And if the ceiling for Jones is 9-7-1 and a wild card win, while being a game manager, the ceiling for a better quarterback would be better, right?
RE: …  
BleedBlue46 : 4/20/2024 12:55 pm : link
In comment 16476697 christian said:
Quote:
The point is Daboll increases the odds the quarterback will succeed, so say the odds of a rookie working out is 50/50, playing for Daboll increases that.

And if the ceiling for Jones is 9-7-1 and a wild card win, while being a game manager, the ceiling for a better quarterback would be better, right?


That's how I feel, get (1)JJM or (2)Maye at 4 for no more than pick 6, 70 and 2025 2nd. Trade for Aiyuk with 47 and a conditional pick in 2025 (likely a 4th that could become a 3rd). Give the rookie QB the best possible chance to thrive. Both JJM and Maye are worth that cost, the risk is worth the reward. The difference between trading up to 3 vs 4 is vast. If we trade up to 3, we won't have the 2025 1st and we wont be able to swing a deal for Aiyuk because NE would want 47. So, no Aiyuk or pick 47 or 2025 1st.
 
christian : 4/20/2024 1:13 pm : link
The Giants have unreliable, expensive quarterback. They have an opportunity to pair the head coach who specializes in quarterbacks with a younger, cheaper, more talented quarterback.

The worst thing that happens is they are wrong. It's the same risk they took with Evan Neal. If the Panthers took Neal, do we think they would have said "Damn, he was our highest rated tackle. Can't draft one of them until next year."
Makes no sense  
mdthedream : 4/20/2024 1:18 pm : link
What if the Giants oline was avg instead of shit? Jones would have won a lot more games period also the wr we had 2 years ago avg at best and Jones got us to the playoffs. The Giants Oline was ranked last 2023.
RE: Makes no sense  
christian : 4/20/2024 1:25 pm : link
In comment 16476746 mdthedream said:
Quote:
What if the Giants oline was avg instead of shit? Jones would have won a lot more games period also the wr we had 2 years ago avg at best and Jones got us to the playoffs. The Giants Oline was ranked last 2023.


So the Giants should draft an offensive lineman at 6 then?
And another 6-11 performance….  
thrunthrublue : 4/20/2024 2:19 pm : link
Could have Little Bill back in the Meadowlands for his final run at that fifth Lombardi.
I think people dramatically overestimate the effect Daboll had onAllen  
Cyrus the Great : 4/20/2024 2:23 pm : link
There isn't all that much evidence that Daboll is the reason Josh Allen turned into a star. For whatever reason, no one seems to remember that Allen worked with Jordan Palmer all offseason before the 2020 season cleaning up his mechanics, which were the primary cause of his lack of accuracy to-date. He always had the talent, and once the mechanics got cleaned up he blossomed. If this was all because of Brian Daboll's magic, why didn't he clean up Allen's mechanics during his first two seasons? In my view coaches primarily have an effect schematically, IE Kyle Shannahan. Player development is primarily a product of a player's talent and work ethic, not who his coach is.
RE: And another 6-11 performance….  
BleedBlue46 : 4/20/2024 2:24 pm : link
In comment 16476864 thrunthrublue said:
Quote:
Could have Little Bill back in the Meadowlands for his final run at that fifth Lombardi.


If they don't get a QB this year, then I could see that 100%.
RE: I think people dramatically overestimate the effect Daboll had onAllen  
christian : 4/20/2024 2:25 pm : link
In comment 16476870 Cyrus the Great said:
Quote:
There isn't all that much evidence that Daboll is the reason Josh Allen turned into a star.


You'll notice how I didn't mention Allen.
RE: RE: I think people dramatically overestimate the effect Daboll had onAllen  
BleedBlue46 : 4/20/2024 2:27 pm : link
In comment 16476873 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16476870 Cyrus the Great said:


Quote:


There isn't all that much evidence that Daboll is the reason Josh Allen turned into a star.



You'll notice how I didn't mention Allen.


That is absolutely true. The turning point for Allen was when he changed his throwing motion using advanced software analysis and he credited his QB coach for that. He never even mentioned Daboll. I do think Daboll is good at getting the most out of his QBs with his gameplans. That doesn't mean he is some kind of QB guru though.
RE: RE: I think people dramatically overestimate the effect Daboll had onAllen  
Cyrus the Great : 4/20/2024 2:27 pm : link
In comment 16476873 christian said:
Quote:
In comment 16476870 Cyrus the Great said:


Quote:


There isn't all that much evidence that Daboll is the reason Josh Allen turned into a star.



You'll notice how I didn't mention Allen.


It was implied in your post
RE: RE: RE: I think people dramatically overestimate the effect Daboll had onAllen  
christian : 4/20/2024 3:28 pm : link
In comment 16476875 Cyrus the Great said:
Quote:
There isn't all that much evidence that Daboll is the reason Josh Allen turned into a star.

You'll notice how I didn't mention Allen.

It was implied in your post


I gave two concrete examples of Giants quarterbacks who have improved greatly. I can count on 2 fingers the number of Bills games I watched when Daboll was there.
Christian  
Johnny5 : 4/21/2024 12:19 am : link
You know I like you. But, you always put emphasis on the QB position.

Look, at the end of the day (Thx Antrelle), if the Giants draft a QB, I will root for that player. If they sign a player I will root for that player. Period.

The thing with Devito is a joke. No one in the league would (or does) think that Devito or Taylor are better than Jones.
NO ONE. Look, I know you hate Jones. And I don't feel he is top 15 either. I think he is a middle of the road starter in the NFL. But the way most people discount the other factors last year (including you) that made this team SHIT THE BED the first half of the season:
- The Team is clearly - CLEARLY - underprepared for the season.
- Defense cannot - CAN NOT - tackle first half of the season. This drove me NUTS. The defense SUCKED.
- Thomas goes out game 1.
- Ezeudu - EZEUDU - goes to LEFT TACKLE after Thomas goes out. ???
- We have a ROOKIE Center (who goes out week 4 because of a dopey Tush push that injures his shoulder).

Ah whatever. I'm so tired of rehashing this shit. I am looking forward to this draft and will root for whatever direction they go.
This post is exactly how I think  
Sean : 4/21/2024 8:17 am : link
Just think about this. The Giants pass on QB and finish 7-10. Brian Daboll is fired. He was hired in part due to his development of QBs and he would have coached here while the team never drafted a QB for him to groom. That is not far fetched.

I also agree that many fans overcomplicate it. Will the QB be better? Yes. Will he be cheaper? Yes. He doesn't need to be Mahomes.

I want Daboll to have the chance to develop one of these guys.
Every QB who has lined up for this regime has overperformed  
j_rud : 4/21/2024 8:25 am : link
relative to expectation. It's why I don't have strong negative feelings about any of these guys. If they like one enough, be it trade up or 6 (or later, who knows), I trust they know what they're doing.
Also, if the QB bombs it's not that bad  
Sean : 4/21/2024 8:25 am : link
You move off him in 2026 and Jones is completely off the books at that point. The Giants are then in great position to draft another guy and maybe at that point it aligns with a new regime.

Why not take a chance on one of these guys this year?
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