this is how i see the top 5 going from a combination of:
how the teams have acted in FA,
reporting from the teams beats/asshats,
analysis from the most reliable draft reporters (namely mcginn).
1. Bears = Caleb (no real speculation otherwise)
2. Commanders = Daniels I don't think Daniels is a lock but McGinn has Daniels closer to Caleb and consensus QB2, asshats + betting markets agree
3. NE = Maye or JJM - i see no way NE passes on a QB. they will choose from at least 2 of the big 4. Brissett is not a starter and he is only signed for 1 year. Wolf was in GB when they picked Rodgers and Cleveland when they picked Mayfield (and traded a 3rd for Tyrod). He consulted in NE when they picked Mac Jones, he was director of scouting when they picked Zappe. He has been around the block with drafting QBs outside the top 5, I dont think he is going to pass on whoever his QB2 or QB3 is in what is an unusually strong QB draft.
4. Cards = MHJ - my first instinct with AZ was that they were the likely trade down team because that's what they did last year, but I think i had that backwards. Last year they traded the consensus "best non-QB in the draft" Will Anderson who went to the pro bowl and won DROY at a position they desperately need, and while they picked up a seemingly decent LT all they got for the swap was the 27th pick this year. If they could trade Paris Johnson and 27 for Anderson I think they'd do it in a heartbeat today. They made 9 picks last year. They have 10 picks this year including 3 in the top 35 and 3 thirds. How many picks do they need? Kyler played his best and the team did their best when they had Hopkins. They had Larry Fitzgerald for almost 2 decades. I don't see them passing on MHJ unless they see him and Nabers as equals and can trade to 5 or 6 and still get 1 of them. They could be the NYG best trade partner if that's the case but I think MHJ is a cut above and they will make the pick.
5. LAC = ***pick for sale*** - Schmelk made a great point in his beat writer mock draft this week, like Jimmy Johnson way back when Harbough is currently in a position where he knows more about the players in this draft than pretty much any other top level decision maker (HC/GM). He has recruited, coached, and coached against most of the top 50 players for the last half decade. There are 6 Michigan players in the consensus top 70 and I'm sure he wants to grab a few of them. His roster has a lot of wholes and aging veterans. He is going to want as many picks as possible. Beyond NY/MIN, 1 of the notable things Schoen said in his PC was how many teams are trying to come up. If a QB and Nabers are both still available there should be a lot of choices.
So here are the choices for NYG:
1. Do you give up 1 or 2 day 2 picks to move up 1 spot and take whichever QB NE didn't take (JJM/Maye)? Knowing Harbough could probably move down again from #6 and pick up even more picks, I'm not sure MIN or any of the other teams behind NYG could top that offer by much. MIN has the 2 firsts this year but 0 picks on day 2, so im not even sure their 3 first round pick offer is that much better than 6 + 47 + another day 2 pick (this year or next) + the chance to do another trade down from 6. Harbough could net himself and 3 or more extra top 75 picks with 2 trade downs instead of 1 (plus an extra pick or 2 next year).
2. Do you stay #6 and take whichever of the QB/Nabers/Odunze/Alt is still there/ranked highest?
3. Do you trade down somewhere between #8-10 figuring you can add 2 or 3 extra picks and still get one of your blue chips at a position of need (let's say MIN jumps to #5 for QB, so at #6 they still have the 2 WRs, Alt, and 1 or 2 CBs as blue chips on their board at premium positions of need).
having typed all this out i think option #1 is the no-brainer if you have a franchise QB grade on whichever guy is left, and it's possibly even more of a no-brainer if you know you have trade options to add a veteran WR like Aiyuk/Deebo for something like Slayton and a 2025 day 2 pick. so if i had to guess what happens something like this would probably be it.
a few days ago i'd have bet heavily against option 3, but i supposed similar logic could apply if the veteran WR rumors are correct and they don't have a QB they like (or MIN outbids them). If you trade down and pick up extra picks that can get you Aiyuk now, give you more ammo for a QB in 2025, and you can still get a blue chip player at say pick #10, that's probably appealing.
always interesting when people choose to read/comment on threads that seemingly doesnt interest them. what part of the question "if this is how the top 5 go" did you expect to be novel from the thousands (millions) of mocks that typically arrive at redundant conclusions?
as redundant as the real top 10 picks may feel on thursday none of those millions of mocks will have gotten them right btw bc there are literally thousands of permutations for just 10 picks.
i mean that's up to your opinion of the players.
here are the mcginn blurbs on the 2 qbs/2 wrs who would possibly be the 3 player selection set at #5/6 if the above happened - they have nabers on par with lamb/jefferson, odunze comp'd to aj brown/davante, maye somewhat comparable to luck/goff, and jjm comparable to cousins (i assume w/ more mobility).
3. ROME ODUNZE, Washington (6-3, 220, 4.44, 1): “He’s a better route-running A.J. Brown from Philly,” one scout said. “He’s going to be a good, strong, built-to-last player.” Redshirted in 2020 before making 29 starts from 2021-’23. “I enjoyed watching his progression over the years,” a second scout said. “He’s very polished but he’s (also) a force as a blocker. He plays well without the ball, so to speak, because of splits, assignments, running routes when maybe the ball’s going in another direction. He’s really come on and gotten better and better. He’s going to be a very solid, solid player in the NFL. He’s not as flashy as the first two but he’s got a flair … some pizazz.” His totals for receptions, yards and TD catches increased each year. “He’s a great kid,” said a third scout. “It would not surprise me if Odunze ended up being the best of the class. What’s crazy is he had production and there were three receivers (at Washington) that are getting drafted.” Finished with 214 receptions for 3,272 (15.3) and 24 TDs. “Size, speed, great makeup football and person,” said a fourth scout. “Competitive, tough, all about football. Wants to achieve. Good hands. This guy’s a good football player. He’s faster (than Davante Adams). He only ran 4.56.” Vertical jump of 39, broad jump of 10-4. “He’s good, but I have some issues with his quickness and his ability to separate,” said a fifth scout. “He’s strong, but his lack of explosiveness really bothered me. I think he’ll be a solid pro. Nothing special.” From Las Vegas. “He’s got rare ball skills that you won’t miss on,” a sixth scout said. “But I have a feeling he’s going to end up being like a good No. 2 receiver (as opposed to) a dominant ‘X’ true No. 1.”
3. DRAKE MAYE, North Carolina (6-4 ½, 227, no 40, 1): Backed up Sam Howell in 2021 and then went 17-9 as the starter in 2022-’23. “Andrew Luck was further along than Drake Maye but the talent level is somewhat similar,” said one scout. “His pro day was really good. He throws a great deep ball for a guy that’s not supposed to have an elite arm. His accuracy and touch are his secret sauce. That’s what he’s really good at.” Finished with a passer rating of 106.3. Rushed for 1,209. “He’s the Jared Goff clone with his mobility,” a second scout said. “Goff ran 4.82. I’d say he’s 4.75.” Hands were 9 1/8. “I see a gifted athlete who can make all the passes,” a third scout said. “In the ’23 season he had a really bad offensive line and got exposed a little bit. There was a degree of inconsistency with his throwing motion and his throwing accuracy. I still think there’s upside with this guy, and he’s young (will be 22 in August). I do see him as a Pro Bowl starter.” Comes from an enormously athletic family. “He’s gotten close to Philip Rivers, who’s a little bit of a hillbilly from Alabama who went to NC State,” a fourth scout said. “Maye is from Charlotte and went to Carolina. So you think this guy’s going to have some polish. He walked in the room and he sounded like Jethro Bodine on the Beverly Hillbillies. We just went, ‘Who is this guy?’ Watching the tape, all this animation. This kid is sort of wound tight trying to be something he’s not … I thought his tape was kind of average, to be honest. He needs a year to just sit, and I don’t know if the teams that are going to take him can do that. I think it’s going to be real hard. He is not explosive with his arm. He’s a good athlete, but you see very few plays where he just rips the ball into a tight window. One thing I noticed was that all his takeoffs were into the boundary, the short side of the field. Any time he threw to the field (side) was to the slot (receiver) down the hashmark. I kind of thought they even recognized that there were some arm strength issues there. I thought I was going to turn on the tape, sit back and watch the show. After about five throws I went, ‘Are you kidding me? All this hype over this guy?’” His family lives in Huntersville, N.C. “He’s got all the physical tools,” a fifth scout said. “Sometimes there’s some wiring … there’s some Daniel Jones in there. Sometimes when it gets a little hairy, what’s he wired like?”
4. J.J. McCARTHY, Michigan (6-2 ½, 215, no 40, 1): Of the top four quarterbacks only McCarthy truly elevated his team. “He’s got major weaknesses but there’s something about that kid that is absolutely special,” one scout said. “He completely changed that rivalry (Ohio State-Michigan). He singlehandedly won both of those games. The one in Columbus (in 2022), people don’t realize some of those throws he made in that game. Then his ability to never get off the field and extend plays is uncanny. All this talk that Michigan built him and it was (Jim) Harbaugh and the O-line. Their O-line sucked this year … The 9-inch hand and the way he throws the ball really scares me. It’s one speed. He has no ability to layer balls in between defenders. Everything’s a fastball. His deep balls are line drives, which is very unfriendly to receivers especially when he gets to this level and it’s contested and not just wide open. But there’s magic. There are these guys that seem to always do this and it always works. The throws by Mahomes early in his career when he’d throw into coverage and it somehow landed in the lap of the Kansas City guy. I don’t know if he’s got this magic to him or if it’s just luck. You’re drafting a guy whose character has been so overhyped you’re neglecting some of these holes. It’s somewhere in between.” Third-year junior won the job in Game 2 of 2022 from Cade McNamara. “I don’t think he’ll fail,” a second scout said. “I saw him as a Kirk Cousins type player.” Finished with a passer rating of 111.3. Rushed for 632. “I like him as a short-to-intermediate passer,” said a third scout. “He’s smart. He’ll distribute the ball. But I don’t see him as a guy who will win a game for you on his own.” His record was 27-1. “He’s better than Harbaugh was,” a fourth scout said. “It’s difficult to have a personality like Harbaugh but he might be close. He does some different things. Meditation, all this he does. He’s got feet. He’s at least a 4.5 guy. He’s got a strong arm. But everything about this guy is development. He won’t make as big an impact maybe as the three above him at first but he can overtake Caleb Williams and Maye. If you play for Jim Harbaugh and win a national championship, you’re good.” In October, Michigan’s athletic department released a 3-minute video in which McCarthy discussed the “big depression” he fell into as a senior in high school and the value of meditation. “He has championed the mental health stuff,” said a fifth scout. “But in the NFL, those fans aren’t going to be the same. You’re going to do that at Arrowhead? Foxborough? Those fans are going to destroy this poor kid if he’s out there sitting under the goal post an hour and a half before the game. It’s part of his resume. You got to make sure you understand that and that’s going to be something you’re going to be involved in with him. How do you replicate the cockpit and the nest he was in at Michigan. It’s hard.” Averaged 22.1 pass attempts in the Wolverines’ 15-0 title season. “He still doesn’t have much experience because he hasn’t thrown the ball very much,” said a sixth scout. “There’s a level of immaturity that he’s going to have to work through. He’s a good kid (but) he doesn’t know what he doesn’t know. It’s kind of buyer beware.” From La Grange Park, Ill.
I have no idea what the Chargers are going to do or which deal they would prefer. That makes me nervous.
BTW, not to go off on a tangent, I thought at one point Arizona was ready to move on at QB. I assume that since no one is tying them to a QB, that has changed.
I have no idea what the Chargers are going to do or which deal they would prefer. That makes me nervous.
BTW, not to go off on a tangent, I thought at one point Arizona was ready to move on at QB. I assume that since no one is tying them to a QB, that has changed.
i think kyler coming back healthy alleviated a lot of that. seems like he and gannon meshed well. he went 3-5 after his return but they scored 20 points every game. he's entering his age 27.
i think the most novel thing i suggested here is that i think the chargers are just going to want maximum picks, and if i had to guess i think they will prioritize picks this year. i feel reasonably confident in that. their roster is a real mess other than herbert and slater. bosa and mack are probably going to be gone next year, i wouldnt be surprised if they are hoping to trade them before the deadline for 2025 picks. maybe derwin james too (he's turning 28).
harbough is going to want to invest heavily in the trenches. maybe he loves Alt or Nabers, but more likely i think he is going to want to turn 1 pick into 3 or 4 top 75 players.
if they were at 1st overall i think it would be discussion worthy.
for qb3/4 i think it's just impractical unless they love whoever is available and/or have a trade offer for murray they want to do.
kyler first 3 years won ROY and made 2 pro bowls. thats what got him extended. the injury was unfortunate but he came back healthy last year. it would take something really dramatic a la payton/russ to move on from kyler at age 27 for a guy you are hoping has maybe a 25% chance to do what kyler's already done.
Now, if Schoen doesn't believe in Maye or JJM, I'd stay at 6 and take Naber or Odunze, whichever is higher on our board.
I'd be against trading down, especially in this top-heavy draft. I'm not that excited about any of the defensive players, even if we trade down. The Giants really need a true No. 1 WR, even without a QB problem. We should get one at 6 if possible unless there's QB we like.
Now, if Schoen doesn't believe in Maye or JJM, I'd stay at 6 and take Naber or Odunze, whichever is higher on our board.
I'd be against trading down, especially in this top-heavy draft. I'm not that excited about any of the defensive players, even if we trade down. The Giants really need a true No. 1 WR, even without a QB problem. We should get one at 6 if possible unless there's QB we like.
up until the last few days i felt pretty confident that was how things would go.
maybe getting influenced by smoke screen stuff but from mcginn and some others (albright) it sounds like odunze may not be thought of the same level as the other 2.
Harrison, with 11 firsts, led with 72 points. Following, in order, were Malik Nabers (65, four), Rome Odunze (49, one), Brian Thomas (13), Xavier Worthy (12), Keon Coleman (eight), Mitchell (eight), Xavier Legette (seven), Ladd McConkey (three), Ja’Lynn Polk (two) and Roman Wilson (one).
i agree with you they wont wait for a player they want so if they like a QB i expect they will move up to 4 or 5.
if they dont like a qb it's possible only 3 go ahead of them and both nabers/mhj are off the board. think that may be the trade down scenario because the trade up team may be looking to take alt or the qb they dont want.
2 Daniels
3 Maye
4 MHJ
5 Nabers
And the Giants start getting calls from Denver and Minn so they cant get JJM?
Could the Minnesota deal bring Brock Bowers, Penix and Franklin? I would love to see them get a QB or an all pro WR but if it fell that way I wouldn’t hate it.
And if there is a QB available, I think LV and Denver also make an offer.
So I'd move up to 5 and get the QB.
And if there is a QB available, I think LV and Denver also make an offer.
So I'd move up to 5 and get the QB.
I think LA would do it then move back again.
Denver doesnt have a 2nd round pick whereas Minnesota has 2 firsts so i think that's a knock out for them in a trade up if it's a player Minnesota wants.
If i was guessing right now i think giants get to 4 or 5 for either maye or jjm unless someone puts something really crazy on the table (like 3 first round picks/equivalents). the giants can match 2 premium picks this year and MIN doesn't have a 2nd round pick to add a 3rd premium pick this year, but LAC could do that by trading down a 2nd time from #6.
If LAC had a specific player they really want then they aren't trading to #11.
If JMac is the QB available, I'm ignoring him and the receivers and trying to move down.
If JMac is the QB available, I'm ignoring him and the receivers and trying to move down.
We have like 5 players worth a damn and you want to trade one of them. To move up one spot. To a team that already has Bosa and Mack.
Looking at last trades it should not take more than a third to move up one spot.
After the Burns contract (and DJ, Dex, AT), we have no option but to build our team through the draft. That being said, I get that QB is most important and if we can reasonably trade up and get the guy that Shoen wants then I'm all for it. But I will be very happy on draft night if I see us trading back.
either of the SF guys for Slayton and a pick would be a great move.
if they draft nabers or odunze then trade him for a day 3 pick.
honestly the news getting out that he was skipping mini camp due to contract was probably leaked by NYG hoping it got someone interested in trading for him.
After the Burns contract (and DJ, Dex, AT), we have no option but to build our team through the draft. That being said, I get that QB is most important and if we can reasonably trade up and get the guy that Shoen wants then I'm all for it. But I will be very happy on draft night if I see us trading back.
they have money to spend but the more draft picks you have the better.
if they dont have a QB they like left and both MHJ/Nabers are gone in top 5, I can see a scenario where moving down makes sense if they have odunze clustered with alt, arnold, mitchell, etc.
those are all very appealing prospects - they just cant drop so far that they end up in a situation where they are picking through scraps like 2021.
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I'm definitely calling LAC and executing a deal. And letting Team KT know they may be moving to LA.
If JMac is the QB available, I'm ignoring him and the receivers and trying to move down.
We have like 5 players worth a damn and you want to trade one of them. To move up one spot. To a team that already has Bosa and Mack.
Looking at last trades it should not take more than a third to move up one spot.
I'm not very high on KT and he would be good insurance for Bosa, who has played only 14 games combined the last two-years. PFF ranked KT #88 for Edge defenders last year...
My underlying point is I would be very aggressive to secure the trade up by making a player available.
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The more trading back seems like the answer. We are far from being a player away. I'd like to see us trade back at 6, pick up an R2 and whatever else we can get, then trade back again and pick up another R2 and whatever else. Then with 5 day 1-2 picks we can draft any combination of QB, WR, RB, CB, Pass Rushing DL, Good RB who can slot into a rotation. This would fill a lot of holes for us.
After the Burns contract (and DJ, Dex, AT), we have no option but to build our team through the draft. That being said, I get that QB is most important and if we can reasonably trade up and get the guy that Shoen wants then I'm all for it. But I will be very happy on draft night if I see us trading back.
they have money to spend but the more draft picks you have the better.
if they dont have a QB they like left and both MHJ/Nabers are gone in top 5, I can see a scenario where moving down makes sense if they have odunze clustered with alt, arnold, mitchell, etc.
those are all very appealing prospects - they just cant drop so far that they end up in a situation where they are picking through scraps like 2021.
So we agree on a few things. But I don't understand your reference to the 2021 draft. We selected Toney #1 which was obviously a terrible pick. The rest of the 2021 draft did not leave us with anything that we can expect to contribute moving forward. Please help me undrestand your point.
If NE takes Maye at 3,and we don't like the trade backs...then take best WR available
what if they have a QB graded as well as they had Allen when they took him 7th? he was the consensus qb3/4 that year just like maye/jjm and took a few years before he really figured things out in the nfl.
Feels like the Department of Redundancy Department
Eric, why rise to the bait? try theordore roosevelt's In The Arena.
Guys like Cassman are critics only for attention clicks. How often do you see threads from guys like this? Not create, they are snipers trying desperately to feel better about themselves through the put-down.
Of course, it begs the question...if they don't like the topic they're free to disregard it.
They are the non-contibutors who come on to point out the misspelling of a complicated name...as if that matters,as if the meaning wasn't clear.
The only person's they indict are themselves.
But if they can trade down in which they believe one of Penix/Nix is near equal to the #4 QB, then imo that would be best. The extra pick would potentially allow 4 spots of need (DE, WR, CB, OL) to be drafted with reasonable expectation of having long term impact. Especially a Defensive Lineman – then the potential for an elite Defense for 4 years or longer is possible. As a result even a game manager QB could make Giants dangerous at some point in the future.
I don't think much of Murray either. As eric said, no one is talking about it so assuming Cards are okay wiht him. I wouldn't be if I were them.
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I actually was going to start a thread on a couple of weeks back about how good people think Murray is/if AZ should be in QB convo.
I don't think much of Murray either. As eric said, no one is talking about it so assuming Cards are okay wiht him. I wouldn't be if I were them.
He's locked up for at least 2 more years and he finished the year strong. They are not going qb.
their best path to getting out would be a trade, and considering all the new QB contracts, as just 1 example if I were Miami I think you could convince me it might be preferable to have Murray at like $30m-40m per year than Tua at $50m+.
especially if you could find someone willing to give up a comparable pick for Tua.
If Rodgers retires, jets would be another team that should be in on kyler.
as i said above if the alternative was Caleb Williams I'd be probably move on from Kyler now. for anyone else im less eager. he's only a few years older than daniels/penix/nix and already proven he's at minimum a competent NFL QB. without the 1st overall pick, there is like a 75% chance whatever QB they take is worse than Kyler and significantly so.
let's imagine a simple trade that gets the 2 MIN firsts for #6.
imagine adding this year's Devon Witherspoon and whoever the best defensive player is at #23 (murphy? newton? chop? wilson?).
Arnold + Banks on the outside at corner with
Burns + Thibs off the edge and
Lawrence + Okereke in the middle of the defense with another 1st round pick
that is a unit to be excited about. 3 of the 4 teams in the championship games last year were the 3 best teams in points allowed.
could spend 47/70 + day 3 picks on offense and probably get a quality WR like pearsall, an OL like haynes or beebe, then TE, RB, maybe even a developmental QB day 3.
let's imagine a simple trade that gets the 2 MIN firsts for #6.
imagine adding this year's Devon Witherspoon and whoever the best defensive player is at #23 (murphy? newton? chop? wilson?).
Arnold + Banks on the outside at corner with
Burns + Thibs off the edge and
Lawrence + Okereke in the middle of the defense with another 1st round pick
that is a unit to be excited about. 3 of the 4 teams in the championship games last year were the 3 best teams in points allowed.
could spend 47/70 + day 3 picks on offense and probably get a quality WR like pearsall, an OL like haynes or beebe, then TE, RB, maybe even a developmental QB day 3.
From your options, it's why I had a slight wish to trade back in which you can get the QB, and get a Defensive Lineman early along wiht a Wr, CB and OL. Getting a DL in rd 2, if you hit - you are on the way for a potential elite Defense.
Best available QB at 6. Take a swing.