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which trade do you prefer - 2025 first or 2 seconds?

Eric on Li : 4/23/2024 9:13 pm
trade charts vary but even on the conservative ones a top 10 draft pick is roughly equal to 2 second round picks.

if you were in trade talks for #3 or #4 where the return in consideration was either #47 + next years second or the 2025 first, which option are you taking?

here are the values from the otc fitzgerald chart which leans conservative (you will notice either of these offers is a big overpay by their methodology):



as you can see if we estimate using this year's slot (6th) pick #47 (1049) + #38 (1157) is roughly equal to pick #6 (2092). the more the first round pick slides down into the 10-20 range, the more it becomes the less valuable side of the deal.

if it were me id pick the 2025 first and figure you have a pretty good chance of taking a quality starter with 1 of the 2 seconds (and possibly get 1 of them this year). not impossible you get 2 good starters with the seconds, also not impossible you have another surprisingly decent season and the pick ends up 10 spots lower than this year. and wherever the first ends up, it matters less because you already have your QB, LT, + pass rushers.

im hoping the max they give up to go #6 to #3 or #4 is something like the 2025 first and slayton.
https://overthecap.com/draft-trade-value-chart - ( New Window )
A first round pick  
TommyWiseau : 4/23/2024 9:31 pm : link
In 2024 is worth more then a first round pick in 2025. Same as later picks, having to wait a year in the “win now” NFL has GMs putting a higher value on current draft picks vs future picks
2025 1st  
Sammo85 : 4/23/2024 9:31 pm : link
.
Should have tanked  
xman : 4/23/2024 9:57 pm : link
and saved the picks
RE: Should have tanked  
Jack Stroud : 4/23/2024 10:35 pm : link
In comment 16482425 xman said:
Quote:
and saved the picks
Any player or coach who tanks should be barred from the NFL forever! They are paid with our dollars and if they purposely don't perform they are gone! If any owner is part to tanking should be forced to sell the franchise! Tank, what a load of bullSchiff!
Our first and second  
Carl in CT : 4/23/2024 10:59 pm : link
Is worth more than the #1 overall? I don’t think so. That’s a huge overpay going to 3. Why those charts don’t mean crap.
2 seconds or even 3 seconds is less painful than a possible top 5 pick  
Ivan15 : 4/23/2024 11:09 pm : link
Just like “Draft Day”
I łike second round picks. Lower dollars and lower expectations  
nygiantfan : 4/23/2024 11:19 pm : link
on the player but often display similar talent levels as guys going in round one. Lots of round one guys don’t reach that ceiling they have because of the pressure and expectations,

A top 5 first rounder is more valuable though because the QB supply is limited and what that spot could be swapped for.
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