A massive dead money cap situation if they trade Herbert. It’s not going to happen. Herbert has his flaws but he’s better than any of these prospects outside of Caleb, IMO.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I thought it was a joke but I am seeing more and more about it.
They would have to cover a lot of that deadcap to make it work I think. Pick 11, 23 2025 1st for Herbert plus they cover the dead cap costs? I'd seriously consider that if I were Harbaugh. Chargers are in rebuild mode, hard to do that while paying top dollar to your QB.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
Yeah that makes sense. And man, if I'm the Chargers who are starting over...I'm taking that deal.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
While this is just guessing, then the Chargers would need assurances of getting JJ.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I so agree with you... he is so overrated.
Don't agree at all. Giants should trade the number 1 pick for him and Chargers can take McCarthy and Nabers.
That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
It's not that good a team. And had terrible coaching.
... putting his money where his mouth is about McCarthy being an amazing QB. If he really believed in McCarthy, then yes, he would look into drafting him outright and trading Herbert for the highest bidder.
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
are interesting, however, all odds tend to shrink the closer you get to the day of the draft.
As drastic as 100 to 6? Maybe not.. but piecing together info with 24 hours left, oddsmakers eliminate 80% of positions from a team drafting as high as 5.
RE: RE: RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Duh. But the point is they know something that the average Joe doesn't. As a result, they will inflate (deflate) the odds based on that information. They don't just randomly and haphazardly change the odds. That would make for terrible bookmakers and would end up, yes, costing them money.
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Well yeah....I understand how that city in the desert was built. It's not an open and close case like you make it out to be though lol.
I've been betting (read as losing!) for 15 years. As i noted above, a drastic move like this is at-worst worth noting. Thats not to say though that in general, all odds will shrink down with 24 hours to go. I see this as "interesting", but far from "breaking news"
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
This is exactly what it is not. Bookies don't set odds. Bettors do. Bookies - especially the big players - never have money in the game. They are just taking the vig. So the odds reflect the betting of all people who are betting. It is more predictive than almost any other single piece of information, other than actually being in the head of the decision maker.
If the actual bet is Chargers taking a QB (which seems absurd) then someone has put a lot of money down on them doing that. Big money movement like that can sometimes be a sign of inside information being played.
But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him. Link - ( New Window )
Trading and cutting are two different things. The dead cap would be if they cut him all his future guarantee years would have to be paid. However if you trade him his future guarantee money and deadcap money goes to the new team. Only his signing bonus and any roster bonuses already paid this year would accelerate to the cap this year. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe this is how it works.
as much as I want to see pts scored. Sure stats are nice and can be a indicator but end of the day, you're QB should be helping the offense score pts. Who cares how he does it as lng as the offense is scoring pts. What good is 30 passing Tds if the offense isn't scoring?
Meh. Had a terrific skill set and by no means am I implying that Herbert isn't worthy of a starting job or serious investments, but to me, the pts scored aint all that and the guy has had a solid or better offensive supporting cast.
PS, the pts scored is getting worse.
I am sure some of you will find something to defend, but the guy aint all that. He needs to be better if you want to call him ELITE. Those stats and his W/L record say NOPE.
Eli led the Giants to 430 pts in 2015 and half this place said it was all Beckham and chucking and ducking. No OL. NO RBS. ONE WR. NO Defense. LEt me see Herbert score that many pts with such little help. HE won't, don't worry.
with even more upside. But he's not great, not yet. Coaching matters. Systems matter. Chargers got themselves a nearly fool proof QB and they haven't won a fucking thing. And their offense isn't even elite.
But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him. Link - ( New Window )
Trading and cutting are two different things. The dead cap would be if they cut him all his future guarantee years would have to be paid. However if you trade him his future guarantee money and deadcap money goes to the new team. Only his signing bonus and any roster bonuses already paid this year would accelerate to the cap this year. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe this is how it works.
I checked and it looks like remaining signing bonus and guaranteed money. But not positive.
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
Overrated? Hmmm.
I'd love to see Harbaugh put his money where his big mouth is and actually do that. Let's see how much he thinks of McCarthy after all.
At which point, I would place an MVP wager once Herbert lands in Minnesota.
RE: RE: Might this just be Chargers make the pick then trade it
That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
I think Herbert's playoff performance was pretty damned good all things considered. He put up enough points to win, and then they surrendered enough points to lose.
BS. if they were going to trade him, they'd be shopping him for other offers. and why wait this late?
Trade a proven franchise QB to gamble on a rookie? - nfw
While I think it's BS maybe it is contingent upon McCarthy being there at 5. The Chargers would be foolish to trade Herbert before the draft and watch as the QB they were targeting goes before 5.
RE: RE: RE: RE: I dont know why people think Odds mean anything
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Duh. But the point is they know something that the average Joe doesn't. As a result, they will inflate (deflate) the odds based on that information. They don't just randomly and haphazardly change the odds. That would make for terrible bookmakers and would end up, yes, costing them money.
They set the odds to balance the books as best they can and keep all the vigs as the profit in a perfect world
RE: I don't want to hear about individual QB stats
as much as I want to see pts scored. Sure stats are nice and can be a indicator but end of the day, you're QB should be helping the offense score pts. Who cares how he does it as lng as the offense is scoring pts. What good is 30 passing Tds if the offense isn't scoring?
Meh. Had a terrific skill set and by no means am I implying that Herbert isn't worthy of a starting job or serious investments, but to me, the pts scored aint all that and the guy has had a solid or better offensive supporting cast.
PS, the pts scored is getting worse.
I am sure some of you will find something to defend, but the guy aint all that. He needs to be better if you want to call him ELITE. Those stats and his W/L record say NOPE.
Eli led the Giants to 430 pts in 2015 and half this place said it was all Beckham and chucking and ducking. No OL. NO RBS. ONE WR. NO Defense. LEt me see Herbert score that many pts with such little help. HE won't, don't worry.
+1. Well said.
Keep in mind he put up those not-so-great scoring numbers with not one but TWO of the top WR's in the league, as well as one of the best all around RB's...
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Odds changing like this is meaningful.
Maybe the Chargers are going to trade Herbert? Seems nuts to me but maybe Harbaugh wants McCarthy and is willing to kind of blow it up.
I thought it was a joke but I am seeing more and more about it.
I thought it was a joke but I am seeing more and more about it.
They would have to cover a lot of that deadcap to make it work I think. Pick 11, 23 2025 1st for Herbert plus they cover the dead cap costs? I'd seriously consider that if I were Harbaugh. Chargers are in rebuild mode, hard to do that while paying top dollar to your QB.
I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
Quote:
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
Yeah that makes sense. And man, if I'm the Chargers who are starting over...I'm taking that deal.
Quote:
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I think it would be pick 11, 23 and 2025 1st minimum, plus Vikings cover the deadcap somehow.
I so agree with you... he is so overrated.
Quote:
I think Herbert is by far the most overrated QB in the NFL. This would be wild if he got traded to the Vikings for both their first round picks. And Harbaugh gets McCarthy. Wow.
I so agree with you... he is so overrated.
Don't agree at all. Giants should trade the number 1 pick for him and Chargers can take McCarthy and Nabers.
Trade a proven franchise QB to gamble on a rookie? - nfw
But they are moving it for a reason. A change like that means an influx of people are betting a certain way. That does not happen randomly.
Almost makes too much sense, except for the whole cap thing.
It’s going to be an exciting couple of days.
That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
0-1 in the playoffs with a big choke.
Remind me again, are do we want a Fantasy QB or a QB that can win a championship?
Quote:
Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022
That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
It's not that good a team. And had terrible coaching.
Quote:
Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022
0-1 in the playoffs with a big choke.
Remind me again, are do we want a Fantasy QB or a QB that can win a championship?
Yes, we want Hostetler not Herbert.
Giants trade 6th for Herbert. Chargers get JJM paired with a dynamic WR and 2025 + are in amazing cap situation…
I don't think this will happen, though.
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
As drastic as 100 to 6? Maybe not.. but piecing together info with 24 hours left, oddsmakers eliminate 80% of positions from a team drafting as high as 5.
Quote:
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Duh. But the point is they know something that the average Joe doesn't. As a result, they will inflate (deflate) the odds based on that information. They don't just randomly and haphazardly change the odds. That would make for terrible bookmakers and would end up, yes, costing them money.
Quote:
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Well yeah....I understand how that city in the desert was built. It's not an open and close case like you make it out to be though lol.
I've been betting (read as losing!) for 15 years. As i noted above, a drastic move like this is at-worst worth noting. Thats not to say though that in general, all odds will shrink down with 24 hours to go. I see this as "interesting", but far from "breaking news"
Herbert overrated wtaf???
Like Eli/Rivers.
That's a big price to pay, plus you have to pay Herbert right away afterward, but I think he's a franchise QB and you make the deal.
That's a big price to pay, plus you have to pay Herbert right away afterward, but I think he's a franchise QB and you make the deal.
That is a big price. But for him I'd do it.
Herbert overrated wtaf???
You're forgetting one of the basic tenets of BBI...
When the Giants lose it's not the QB's fault. It's because the rest of the team and all the coaches suck.
When the other team loses it's the QB's fault, no matter how bad the rest of the team is.
This is exactly what it is not. Bookies don't set odds. Bettors do. Bookies - especially the big players - never have money in the game. They are just taking the vig. So the odds reflect the betting of all people who are betting. It is more predictive than almost any other single piece of information, other than actually being in the head of the decision maker.
If the actual bet is Chargers taking a QB (which seems absurd) then someone has put a lot of money down on them doing that. Big money movement like that can sometimes be a sign of inside information being played.
Link - ( New Window )
Like Eli/Rivers.
You can't do that anymore.
then the line movement must be for the 6th pick, not the Chargers taking QB. They can't possible trade him tomorrow.
Quote:
would you want NYG to offer #6, #47 and 2025 1st for Herbert?
That's a big price to pay, plus you have to pay Herbert right away afterward, but I think he's a franchise QB and you make the deal.
That is a big price. But for him I'd do it.
You think that's a big price for Justin Herbert? Well, then imagine what real price would be, north of 3 first round picks.
Trading and cutting are two different things. The dead cap would be if they cut him all his future guarantee years would have to be paid. However if you trade him his future guarantee money and deadcap money goes to the new team. Only his signing bonus and any roster bonuses already paid this year would accelerate to the cap this year. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe this is how it works.
Chargers Pts scored:
2023-346
2022-391
2021-474 (impressive)
2020-383
Meh. Had a terrific skill set and by no means am I implying that Herbert isn't worthy of a starting job or serious investments, but to me, the pts scored aint all that and the guy has had a solid or better offensive supporting cast.
PS, the pts scored is getting worse.
I am sure some of you will find something to defend, but the guy aint all that. He needs to be better if you want to call him ELITE. Those stats and his W/L record say NOPE.
Eli led the Giants to 430 pts in 2015 and half this place said it was all Beckham and chucking and ducking. No OL. NO RBS. ONE WR. NO Defense. LEt me see Herbert score that many pts with such little help. HE won't, don't worry.
Learn from that. Or at least try.
It’s going to be an exciting couple of days.
They wouldn't do it until LAC got qb (presumably JJM).
Quote:
But the dead cap hit for the Chargers is ridiculous. They couldn't afford to trade him. Link - ( New Window )
Trading and cutting are two different things. The dead cap would be if they cut him all his future guarantee years would have to be paid. However if you trade him his future guarantee money and deadcap money goes to the new team. Only his signing bonus and any roster bonuses already paid this year would accelerate to the cap this year. I mean I could be wrong, but I believe this is how it works.
I checked and it looks like remaining signing bonus and guaranteed money. But not positive.
Giants trade 6th for Herbert. Chargers get JJM paired with a dynamic WR and 2025 + are in amazing cap situation…
Minnesota would obviously have to pay most of the caphit
Overrated? Hmmm.
I'd love to see Harbaugh put his money where his big mouth is and actually do that. Let's see how much he thinks of McCarthy after all.
At which point, I would place an MVP wager once Herbert lands in Minnesota.
Quote:
with a deal already in place?
Like Eli/Rivers.
You can't do that anymore.
They wouldn't be trading the qb they drafted...
Quote:
Look at his stats from 2021 and 2022
That's the point. He's a stats guy. Comes up small in big spots and has been to 1 playoff game in his 4 years with zero playoff wins. And he's done this with a good team around him.
I think Herbert's playoff performance was pretty damned good all things considered. He put up enough points to win, and then they surrendered enough points to lose.
I think we'll see Herbert re-emerge this year.
Trade a proven franchise QB to gamble on a rookie? - nfw
While I think it's BS maybe it is contingent upon McCarthy being there at 5. The Chargers would be foolish to trade Herbert before the draft and watch as the QB they were targeting goes before 5.
Quote:
In comment 16483424 Anakim said:
Quote:
In comment 16483416 blueblood said:
Quote:
like its a predictor of what will happen. Its just bookies trying to move money in a direction these want..
Agreed, but you have to think there is some reason for that. Las Vegas has insiders.
Vegas wants to MAKE MONEY. That's the reason.
You think Vegas cares about insiders? THEY WANT TO MAKE MONEY. How do they make money? Increase betting! How do you increase betting? Move the lines so more people bet!
I swear some people act like Vegas is run by a bunch of nuns. The sole point of the bookmakers is to make money. Full stop.
Duh. But the point is they know something that the average Joe doesn't. As a result, they will inflate (deflate) the odds based on that information. They don't just randomly and haphazardly change the odds. That would make for terrible bookmakers and would end up, yes, costing them money.
They set the odds to balance the books as best they can and keep all the vigs as the profit in a perfect world
Chargers Pts scored:
2023-346
2022-391
2021-474 (impressive)
2020-383
Meh. Had a terrific skill set and by no means am I implying that Herbert isn't worthy of a starting job or serious investments, but to me, the pts scored aint all that and the guy has had a solid or better offensive supporting cast.
PS, the pts scored is getting worse.
I am sure some of you will find something to defend, but the guy aint all that. He needs to be better if you want to call him ELITE. Those stats and his W/L record say NOPE.
Eli led the Giants to 430 pts in 2015 and half this place said it was all Beckham and chucking and ducking. No OL. NO RBS. ONE WR. NO Defense. LEt me see Herbert score that many pts with such little help. HE won't, don't worry.
+1. Well said.
Keep in mind he put up those not-so-great scoring numbers with not one but TWO of the top WR's in the league, as well as one of the best all around RB's...