I was wrong. I thought this was a QB draft. I haven't been invested in a draft like this since 2004. It made sense to me that Schoen & Daboll would take the opportunity to draft a lottery QB this year. But, Schoen always has talked about sticking to his process. That's exactly what he did.
There are some posters I need to credit who I've challenged in the lead up.
christian - you were spot on. Schoen didn't change course so quickly after the Jones contract last year.
bw - Yes, I now completely agree with you that Jones is Schoen's guy. I'm tired of the Mara narrative. I don't believe Mara was vetoing any QB pick.
Ryan - great call with McCarthy. You felt it was smoke since day 1.
So, where does this leave the team? Schoen said last night he's happy to have a cost controlled WR for 5 years with Nabers talent. It's as simple as that.
I think Schoen did try to get Maye. I believe he offered a 2025 first as well. But, ultimately he told us the following:
-He likes Jones/Lock more than Penix.
-He likes Jones/Lock more than McCarthy.
-He likes Jones/Lock more than Nix.
Of the 15 first round grades, I assume the only 3 which had first round grades at QB were Williams, Daniels & Maye.
The Jones contract was always consequential. It was a significant contract. This wasn't a cheap deal and the 2 year out still has a $22M dead cap charge. When Schoen said he trusted his process, there was no reason to not believe him. This is where I was wrong. The contract was significant enough and the prior medical issues not concerning enough to change course so soon.
I do think Lock has a chance to start. Schneider had no reason to lie - the Seahawks wanted him back. So, I expect a QB competition, but Lock will have to clearly outperform Jones with Jones clearly struggling. I wouldn't bank on it, but I think Lock will have his chance.
I no longer think Schoen is in any trouble to lose his job. I think he's got ownership buy in and taking a slower and more methodical approach. I respect guys like Sy, JonC and The_Mike a great deal, all of which see the value in a WR1 here. I don't think Schoen is getting fired any time soon.
Where to go at QB from here? I've got no idea. It will be fascinating to see if Jones gets restructured. If he doesn't, I do think that is telling. Unlike some on BBI, I don't think the QB position "takes care of itself" - it's going to be a big challenge. Increasingly, I think the next QB will be a veteran starter. After the Penix pick, I could see Kirk Cousins in 2025. Dak Prescott. Someone like that.
Lastly, the positive I can come up with - the Knicks build. Leon Rose often got criticized for being too patient and not doing enough. Well, now I think this is going to be a longer build and Schoen will be patient. It's clear he wanted Maye but he's not going to force anything else and stick to the board. Will that patience ultimately pay off? We'll see. But, Schoen has a process it seems.
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and what happened when they only played 1 healthy series together in 2023?
jones record with thomas and barkley was dramatically different than without.
Thomas is one of the best LT in the league.
If he plays a full year there are no more excuses for Jones.
there are no excuses for anyone. they need to prepare like thomas may no play a full year. that was in theory one of the upsides to taking neal when they already had thomas.
their jobs are to win, just as they did at the end of the year even down to their 3rd string udfa qb.
it's easier to win with your best players healthy though.
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In comment 16490943 Eric on Li said:
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and what happened when they only played 1 healthy series together in 2023?
jones record with thomas and barkley was dramatically different than without.
Thomas is one of the best LT in the league.
If he plays a full year there are no more excuses for Jones.
there are no excuses for anyone. they need to prepare like thomas may no play a full year. that was in theory one of the upsides to taking neal when they already had thomas.
their jobs are to win, just as they did at the end of the year even down to their 3rd string udfa qb.
it's easier to win with your best players healthy though.
If only everyone thought that way, though. See, the original post.
Got it.
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In comment 16490962 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 16490943 Eric on Li said:
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and what happened when they only played 1 healthy series together in 2023?
jones record with thomas and barkley was dramatically different than without.
Thomas is one of the best LT in the league.
If he plays a full year there are no more excuses for Jones.
there are no excuses for anyone. they need to prepare like thomas may no play a full year. that was in theory one of the upsides to taking neal when they already had thomas.
their jobs are to win, just as they did at the end of the year even down to their 3rd string udfa qb.
it's easier to win with your best players healthy though.
If only everyone thought that way, though. See, the original post.
which post?
Got it.
But it ain’t a cult. Haha.
They're paying Thomas.
They're paying Burns.
Thibodeaux is entering year 3.
Neal is entering year 3 (bust or not).
Robinson is entering year 3.
It's year 3 of the regime. I think Schoen just told us he's not drafting a QB. It's either Jones or the veteran market.
NYG fans should follow the Goff & Prescott negotiations. That's where this is headed if it isn't Jones in 2025 imo.
It doesn't line up to draft a rookie QB and wait for him to develop.
Schoen
They're paying Thomas.
They're paying Burns.
Thibodeaux is entering year 3.
Neal is entering year 3 (bust or not).
Robinson is entering year 3.
It's year 3 of the regime. I think Schoen just told us he's not drafting a QB. It's either Jones or the veteran market.
NYG fans should follow the Goff & Prescott negotiations. That's where this is headed if it isn't Jones in 2025 imo.
It doesn't line up to draft a rookie QB and wait for him to develop.
Schoen
Exactly, this roster will be fully built after this offseason. It may not be ready to compete this season (although I think it's better on paper than people think, the Ringer football people acknowledged this on their show this morning), but If Schoen has hit on enough of his moves, it should be ready by 2025. Please god no more "this was always a five-year rebuild" that seems to continually reset each offseason.
This is it. The expectation should be to eat at the grown ups table with Philly, SF, Dallas in the NFC.
(Spoiler alert, it's not going to happen). In reality we will be like the Saints and Raiders. The Steelers are our upside.
which post?
Daniel Jones also has one of the top LTs in the game and other high picks. The original commenter also said it doesn’t count for Jones because Thomas was hurt, while the entire interior of the Texans line also missed time last year.
They're paying Thomas.
They're paying Burns.
Thibodeaux is entering year 3.
Neal is entering year 3 (bust or not).
Robinson is entering year 3.
It's year 3 of the regime. I think Schoen just told us he's not drafting a QB. It's either Jones or the veteran market.
NYG fans should follow the Goff & Prescott negotiations. That's where this is headed if it isn't Jones in 2025 imo.
It doesn't line up to draft a rookie QB and wait for him to develop.
Schoen
almost every team in the NFL's timeline is the same - compete for the playoffs, even in year 1 if you've inherited a disaster like HOU last year or NYG/JAX in 2022. once you are a consistent playoff team you aim higher towards "contender".
in year 3 if you arent making the playoffs you are looking for your next job.
i dont mean this in an offensive way sean but you have a tendency to see things in a narrative way like the post yesterday that after yesterday it would be "their team". it was already almost entirely their team last year. in 2022 it was less their team and they still won 9 games. nfl rosters are very similar in quality. it is not college. the job is to win.
I trace a lot of my view on Schoen back to that 5th year option situation. That told me he was absolutely in charge of the Jones relationship moving forward. If Mara was leaning as hard as many suggest, I have no doubt Mara forces Schoen to exercise the option.
Instead, Schoen threw down the gauntlet on Team Jones and made 2022 a prove it year. And Jones did enough in 2022 to convince Schoen to offer the $160M deal.
I think last night was purely about Jones's health and the opportunity to buy insurance to cover that.
I posit that Schoen looked at Maye as a younger, healthier version of Jones and was willing to explore adding him. But I don't think it was really about a talent upgrade. When Schoen revealed two weeks ago that he went back to look at Jones's 2022 film to make sure he didn't miss anything, that told me he was very comfortable in bringing back Jones if healthy.
Because I don't care how talented Nabers might be, JMac and Penix are clearly more talented than Jones at the most critical position in sports. But Schoen didn't blink. His message is Jones is more talented than Penix, JMac, and Nix even with ALL of the injuries.
That is a loud an resonating message - to me.
Got it.
Smart teams use reporters to their advantage all the time. It’s what I was trying to say in my original post. It benefited the Patriots to say the Giants are interested in trading up so teams would get in a bidding war and drive up the price.
I always thought it never made sense for the Patriots to trade out of 3 unless they got their socks knocked off. They are more QB needy than us. For them to trade that pick it meant either that they though the QB there wasn't that good or they got way overpaid.
Don't draft a QB at this point; keep building up other positions.
I'll be rooting for Giants wins this Fall with Lock/Jones. I'm not super optimistic, but there is no other choice. Back the team and trust there is a plan in place.
I think it is clear Schoen thought Jones was really good in 2022, and can take them to playoffs again with health and some more weapons. If a really great prospect like Maye or Daniels is there he will go get him, but there are bigger needs on this team than QB.
Some folks are twisting themselves in knots trying to explain how a GM who knows his QB isn't very good keeps putting the team in that same QBs hands.
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which post?
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CJ Stroud has one of the top LT's in the game in Laremy Tunsil and other high picks on his OL.
Daniel Jones also has one of the top LTs in the game and other high picks. The original commenter also said it doesn’t count for Jones because Thomas was hurt, while the entire interior of the Texans line also missed time last year.
ok well im not sure why we are comparing to stroud specifically.
just checked thomas' game log in the last 2 years the NYG record with thomas is 14-13-1 (including postseason). even with the disaster that the rest of the OL has been aside from him.
record without him is 2-6 (jones was 1-3 as qb in those games, tyrod was 1-2, webb 0-1).
i think many giants fans have bagged on their better players for not doing more when in reality the problem has been their inability to successfully draft quality depth behind them. barkley's record the last 2 years when healthy was 16-15-1. 0-4 without him.
and no, im not putting .500 up on a pedestal. by year 3 they need to be progressing beyond that. middle of the road offense and middle of the road defense doesn't cut it. but that will happen if and only if they do a better job of adding/developing more quality players. if they keep getting nothing out high picks like neal and continue unable to find competent backup rbs, interior ol, etc they wont progress much even if the qb was stroud.
I think it is clear Schoen thought Jones was really good in 2022, and can take them to playoffs again with health and some more weapons. If a really great prospect like Maye or Daniels is there he will go get him, but there are bigger needs on this team than QB.
Some folks are twisting themselves in knots trying to explain how a GM who knows his QB isn't very good keeps putting the team in that same QBs hands.
Exactly. Schoen has also referenced Jones age many times. He's often referenced him being 25 when he had the win in Minnesota. I don't doubt that Penix & Nix being 24 impacted the evaluation.
I trace a lot of my view on Schoen back to that 5th year option situation. That told me he was absolutely in charge of the Jones relationship moving forward. If Mara was leaning as hard as many suggest, I have no doubt Mara forces Schoen to exercise the option.
Instead, Schoen threw down the gauntlet on Team Jones and made 2022 a prove it year. And Jones did enough in 2022 to convince Schoen to offer the $160M deal.
I think last night was purely about Jones's health and the opportunity to buy insurance to cover that.
I posit that Schoen looked at Maye as a younger, healthier version of Jones and was willing to explore adding him. But I don't think it was really about a talent upgrade. When Schoen revealed two weeks ago that he went back to look at Jones's 2022 film to make sure he didn't miss anything, that told me he was very comfortable in bringing back Jones if healthy.
Because I don't care how talented Nabers might be, JMac and Penix are clearly more talented than Jones at the most critical position in sports. But Schoen didn't blink. His message is Jones is more talented than Penix, JMac, and Nix even with ALL of the injuries.
That is a loud an resonating message - to me.
we are on the same page here.
-He likes Jones/Lock more than McCarthy.
-He likes Jones/Lock more than Nix.
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In comment 16491009 Eric on Li said:
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which post?
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CJ Stroud has one of the top LT's in the game in Laremy Tunsil and other high picks on his OL.
Daniel Jones also has one of the top LTs in the game and other high picks. The original commenter also said it doesn’t count for Jones because Thomas was hurt, while the entire interior of the Texans line also missed time last year.
ok well im not sure why we are comparing to stroud specifically.
just checked thomas' game log in the last 2 years the NYG record with thomas is 14-13-1 (including postseason). even with the disaster that the rest of the OL has been aside from him.
record without him is 2-6 (jones was 1-3 as qb in those games, tyrod was 1-2, webb 0-1).
i think many giants fans have bagged on their better players for not doing more when in reality the problem has been their inability to successfully draft quality depth behind them. barkley's record the last 2 years when healthy was 16-15-1. 0-4 without him.
and no, im not putting .500 up on a pedestal. by year 3 they need to be progressing beyond that. middle of the road offense and middle of the road defense doesn't cut it. but that will happen if and only if they do a better job of adding/developing more quality players. if they keep getting nothing out high picks like neal and continue unable to find competent backup rbs, interior ol, etc they wont progress much even if the qb was stroud.
The depth isn’t really relevant to there being no more excuses for Jones though. Players get hurt. Thomas may get hurt again, maybe Slayton misses time. The Giants added Nabers and 3 Olineman so far this offseason. There’s no more “he needs x” to succeed.
Put up the numbers worthy of your cap hit.
I trace a lot of my view on Schoen back to that 5th year option situation. That told me he was absolutely in charge of the Jones relationship moving forward. If Mara was leaning as hard as many suggest, I have no doubt Mara forces Schoen to exercise the option.
Instead, Schoen threw down the gauntlet on Team Jones and made 2022 a prove it year. And Jones did enough in 2022 to convince Schoen to offer the $160M deal.
I think last night was purely about Jones's health and the opportunity to buy insurance to cover that.
I posit that Schoen looked at Maye as a younger, healthier version of Jones and was willing to explore adding him. But I don't think it was really about a talent upgrade. When Schoen revealed two weeks ago that he went back to look at Jones's 2022 film to make sure he didn't miss anything, that told me he was very comfortable in bringing back Jones if healthy.
Because I don't care how talented Nabers might be, JMac and Penix are clearly more talented than Jones at the most critical position in sports. But Schoen didn't blink. His message is Jones is more talented than Penix, JMac, and Nix even with ALL of the injuries.
That is a loud an resonating message - to me.
Schoens job is on the line then. I don’t think he automatically gets a second “HC” or “QB” cycle.
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In comment 16490850 ajr2456 said:
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In comment 16490835 GiantHead said:
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QB can wait. Sorry Jones haters. Show me an elite QB who didn't have a top OL.
Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes, Cj Stroud, Tom Brady, Justin Herbert, etc.
CJ Stroud has one of the top LT's in the game in Laremy Tunsil and other high picks on his OL. KC has spent extensively on the OL. Joe Burrow has missed lots of games due to his OL being unable to block. Herbert has won fewer playoff games than Daniel Jones.
Daniel Jones doesn’t have one of the top LTs in the game?
He was hurt when Jones was playing last year. The line was a mess. Be fair.
Schoens job is on the line then. I don’t think he automatically gets a second “HC” or “QB” cycle.
You are preaching to the choir. Totally agree.
Last night was the second big opportunity for Schoen to pivot away from Jones. Instead, he put even more eggs in the basket.
Yep. The only QB in the history of the NFL to have excuses made for him because he didn’t have his freakin RB in some games now no longer has that RB he so desperately relied on to make him look good. Now what?
Nabers versus QB's available and the impact on 2024 season.
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Schoens job is on the line then. I don’t think he automatically gets a second “HC” or “QB” cycle.
You are preaching to the choir. Totally agree.
Last night was the second big opportunity for Schoen to pivot away from Jones. Instead, he put even more eggs in the basket.
I don't disagree that Schoen's job should be on the line, I just don't think it will be.
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if Barkley isn't playing, I have some bad news for you...
Yep. The only QB in the history of the NFL to have excuses made for him because he didn’t have his freakin RB in some games now no longer has that RB he so desperately relied on to make him look good. Now what?
They just drafted their new Barkley last night.
Let's see if they turn him into their new Kadarius Toney...
The depth isn’t really relevant to there being no more excuses for Jones though. Players get hurt. Thomas may get hurt again, maybe Slayton misses time. The Giants added Nabers and 3 Olineman so far this offseason. There’s no more “he needs x” to succeed.
Put up the numbers worthy of your cap hit.
he put up numbers worthy of the contract he got in 2022, he didnt in 2023. if we make 0 excuses for either can we accept that as fact?
in terms of $ jones is going to be somewhere between qb 13-15 by the time the season starts. would you sign for this right now in 2024?
4k passing + rushing yards,
22 passing + rushing tds,
6 ints (lowest int% in nfl)
6th best QBR
7th best EPA
that was his 2022 season in 16 games, just numbers, 0 excuses either way.
I trace a lot of my view on Schoen back to that 5th year option situation. That told me he was absolutely in charge of the Jones relationship moving forward. If Mara was leaning as hard as many suggest, I have no doubt Mara forces Schoen to exercise the option.
Instead, Schoen threw down the gauntlet on Team Jones and made 2022 a prove it year. And Jones did enough in 2022 to convince Schoen to offer the $160M deal.
I think last night was purely about Jones's health and the opportunity to buy insurance to cover that.
I posit that Schoen looked at Maye as a younger, healthier version of Jones and was willing to explore adding him. But I don't think it was really about a talent upgrade. When Schoen revealed two weeks ago that he went back to look at Jones's 2022 film to make sure he didn't miss anything, that told me he was very comfortable in bringing back Jones if healthy.
Because I don't care how talented Nabers might be, JMac and Penix are clearly more talented than Jones at the most critical position in sports. But Schoen didn't blink. His message is Jones is more talented than Penix, JMac, and Nix even with ALL of the injuries.
That is a loud an resonating message - to me.
Schoen’s message is that Jones and Nabers is more valuable moving forward and than JJ, Penix and Nix without Nabers. Can’t just leave Nabers out of the equation altogether.
I don't disagree that Schoen's job should be on the line, I just don't think it will be.
I can buy that, too.
I think we are in unchartered waters here. A lottery QB getting a sixth season with his original team despite never having anywhere near a great season. It's incredible...
Tua and maybe Lawrence get extended?
There’s no reason for him not to be around 3800-4000 passing yards. Even Howell did that last year.
A repeat of 2022 probably has the Giants picking 6th again. They won’t have the smoke and mirrors of the first 6 weeks of 2022 to keep them afloat.
They just drafted their new Barkley last night.
That is a very interesting way of looking at it.
Are you concluding that WRs are now just as commoditized as RBs?
Got it.
Intelligent people ignore what people say and focus on what they do. All teams use the beats this time of year to plant shit. I think the Giants executed exactly what they were attempting to do.
I think Nabers was the number 1 player on their board and they did everything they could to disguise it.
Very happy about that.
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The depth isn’t really relevant to there being no more excuses for Jones though. Players get hurt. Thomas may get hurt again, maybe Slayton misses time. The Giants added Nabers and 3 Olineman so far this offseason. There’s no more “he needs x” to succeed.
Put up the numbers worthy of your cap hit.
he put up numbers worthy of the contract he got in 2022, he didnt in 2023. if we make 0 excuses for either can we accept that as fact?
in terms of $ jones is going to be somewhere between qb 13-15 by the time the season starts. would you sign for this right now in 2024?
4k passing + rushing yards,
22 passing + rushing tds,
6 ints (lowest int% in nfl)
6th best QBR
7th best EPA
that was his 2022 season in 16 games, just numbers, 0 excuses either way.
No that doesn't warrant the 18-20% cap hit. I'm moving on without question even with the 20 million dead cap hit the following year.
You need more from your QB to consistently win and ultimately contend. You can easily find that production elsewhere for a fraction of the cost.
Not a comparison of Allen/Jones but when Diggs was added, JA went from 3100 yards to 4500 yards. Diggs: 127c/1535y/12.1
I am hoping for just over 4k yards and a big improvement with the RB production in the run game with more use of TE's.
If the plan is to limit the QBs responsibility and build a great team around him, fine. It's not the best plan, but it does have logic. Don't pay $40 M for that. It's a $10M job. And draft guys in the middle rounds so you can train them. They can do the job for $2 M
- Don't exercise the 5th year option
- Reverse course - sign him to long term contract
- Invest heavily in the Pre Draft capital to research QBs
This plan is all over the place
That unsustainable low TO rate is driving the good all in one metrics that Jones cultists love to point to.
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They just drafted their new Barkley last night.
That is a very interesting way of looking at it.
Are you concluding that WRs are now just as commoditized as RBs?
Not quite, but it's getting there.
And regarding Nabers specifically my prediction is that his impact won't nearly be what the fans make it out to be.
But hey I could be wrong. Maybe they score 27 PPG this year and I look like a dumbass.
I think it is more accurate based on what you are saying to put it this way...
"The Giants are interested in moving on from Daniel Jones when the opportunity presents itself."
"When the absolutely perfect and 100% guaranteed opportunity presents itself" may be more accurate
- Don't exercise the 5th year option
- Reverse course - sign him to long term contract
- Invest heavily in the Pre Draft capital to research QBs
This plan is all over the place
bw nails it imo. Once Schoen signed Jones, the plan was clear. Schoen dared Jones to perform in 2022, and he met Schoen's expectations.
It's time we all believe what Schoen tells us.
Tua and maybe Lawrence get extended?
and goff. rodgers is below him but i think that's artificial bc of the trade, he extended at $50m+ and the contract is still active. russ' dead money is higher. i think dak may be tied with him or below him but his hit is $60m this year.
there's no perfect apples/apples way to do it but i think by the end of this offseason he will be close to the midpoint.
There’s no reason for him not to be around 3800-4000 passing yards. Even Howell did that last year.
A repeat of 2022 probably has the Giants picking 6th again. They won’t have the smoke and mirrors of the first 6 weeks of 2022 to keep them afloat.
why are we comparing him to a non-running qb?
lamar threw for fewer yards/ypg than howell last year too. for his career lamar averages 185 passing yards per game + 61 ypg rushing = 245 total. jones career average is 209 pypg + 32 rypg.
twisting stats doesn't make jones lamar jackson any more than he's sam howell (who threw for slightly more yardage but with 3x as many turnovers 21 ints).
Lamar still threw for 3700 yards last year, which isn’t far off from the 3800-4000 threshold I laid out, and if he played week 17 he would have been in the 3800-4000 range. If you want to compare running QB to “running QB”. The difference is, defenses don’t respect Jones’ running game like they have to do Lamar’s.
From the second half of 2022 on the league has done pretty well to shut down Jones ability to run.
It’s not asking too much for Jones to be in the 3800-4000 range as a passer alone.
and like i said rodgers/wilson sort of factor in somehow since they both signed at $50m+, were active contracts when Jones signed, and remain "alive" contracts now, they just got modified. Denver is eating $85m of dead money for RW the next 2 years which could end up more than jones gets from the nyg.
Why would a repeat of Jones’ 2022 year be acceptable?