1 year ago to the day on 3/13/23 2018 draftee Dayron Payne got extended off a franchise tag for 4 years 90m that made him the 2nd highest paid DT in the NFL behind only Aaron Donald.
In the months that followed 2019 draftees entering their 5th year option seasons Jeffrey Simmons, Dexter Lawrence, Quinnen Williams in order topped Payne's contract even though they were 1 year away from UFA. Chris Jones held out and got himself a raise before resetting to the top this offseason. Wilkins and Madubuike were able to leverage the increased cap and FA market to beat the numbers of last year's extensions.
So in 365 days Dayron went from DT2 to DT8.
With 2020 draftees (lamb, jefferson, aiyuk) now entering their 5 year option seasons or tag seasons (higgins) and 2021 draftees (chase, amon ra, collins) now extension eligible, there is a lot of gasoline out there and Calvin Ridley just lit a blowtorch. he just got the 2nd biggest full guarantee of any WR (just 2.5m behind tyreek) and the overall 6th biggest deal at age 29 off a relatively pedestrian season. he was 25th in yards with 1016, just 2 ahead of adam thielen. in the old days of a 16 game schedule he would have been under 1k yards. he wasnt even the highest receiver on his own team in YPG - his 59 YPG was behind Christian Kirk's 65 each of the last 2 seasons in Jax (1 year with Ridley, 1 year without).
Adam Schefter
@AdamSchefter
Calvin Ridley - 4 years, $92M - and Michael Pittman - 3 years, $70M - is just the start of a huge WR offseason:
Receivers now eligible for new deals include:
🏈Justin Jefferson
🏈CeeDee Lamb
🏈Tee Higgins
🏈Ja’Marr Chase
🏈Amon-Ra St. Brown
🏈Brandon Aiyuk
🏈Nico Collins |
the question is who goes first? i dont think it will be jefferson or chase. jefferson had deals on the table in september to reset the market but he turned them down (probably smartly as it turns out). he seems to want to set a big high water mark so it is probably in his interest to wait until right before camp kind of like Bosa last year. he's also got the added question of the minnesota QB situation. you would think he's curious to see if they draft a rookie and who. if he doesnt want to play with a rookie, would MIN dangle him to move up? that's an interesting one to keep an eye on. whatever happens with jj i think chase will be a year behind attempting to put up a big enough season to beat that deal and become the new WR1 as opposed pushing to extend early. which cincy will probably be happy to accommodate so they can get 1 extra cheap year with him.
if someone trades for higgins he could be first in line because he will likely try to do what Burns was able to do forcing his way up to the top of the market. he'd get a deal far in excess of Ridley, probably with a 5th year since he's only 25, and probably the biggest full guarantee of any WR contract. a 5x25m would be the biggest total contract above Hill. cincy has seemed to want to keep him and chase together for 1 more year if they can so i guess that will come down to how aggressive any offers are. with such a good WR draft im not sure anyone steps up like nyg did for burns.
if Higgins doesnt get dealt i think Lamb is the odds on favorite because Dallas may have the most urgency and he is coming off a career best season with a lot of leverage. Dallas could see the writing on the wall and offer him the WR1 money (5x25m is basically AJB deal with 1 extra year) knowing it would be very hard for him to say no to that, while also knowing that his stay in that slot would likely be pretty short lived. they have a parsons extension coming right around the corner too. not to mention resolving dak. their quietness in UFA right now may be a reflection of needing to get their own house in order first - and Lamb/Dak may be the top of that list.
St. Brown and Collins are interesting wild cards. as mid-round picks they have basically been minimum salary players. both have made a grand total of about 2.5m over their careers so far (less agent fees). they don't have 5th year options so they will probably get tagged next year, but without any guarantees ahead of time like a 5yo in the event of an injury. would either of them turn down anything close to what Ridley just got? are either of them or their teams urgent to try to get something done? 90m+ is life-changing money that may be sitting there for the taking. Andrew Thomas was 1 of the few players from the 2020 draft who extended at his first chance last offseason and he made a comment that he did it because he'd had some injury issues and he wanted security. Both of those guys have had some injuries too. Then again so have Chase/Jefferson.
i guess 1 silver lining - if 4 qbs go ahead of nyg pick at least they will be able to get a potential stud wr cost controlled for 5 years.
a quality QB beats anything else. the risk factor is higher than WR, which is a pretty safe position, but if you have a conviction on a QB you have to take the swing.
it is possible to get quality WRs on day 2, infinitely easier than QB, and this is a very good WR draft.
I'd be sort of open minded either way if i were them - but i think what would sway me is his attitude towards playing with a rookie QB. if he is against it dont you kind of have to move him? and at that point why not try to use him to get the QB you want?
NE was supposedly 1 of the teams in big on Ridley. Still have 57m in cap space open.
AZ has Kyler and currently sitting on 40m cap space, would they turn down Jefferson plus a few other picks to continue building up their roster?
LAC has all kinds of cap problems so they might be a stretch, but imagine Jefferson with Herbert?
Look I do not blame Barkley...but
As a fan, I appreciate Dex that much more.....as he knew signing his deal....he was leaving money on the table to stay with team.......
It's nice
Look I do not blame Barkley...but
As a fan, I appreciate Dex that much more.....as he knew signing his deal....he was leaving money on the table to stay with team.......
It's nice
eh, at the time dex signed he was something like DT3 behind only Aaron Donald and Jeffrey Simmons (whose resume was better). he got more than Javon Hargrave got off an all pro season for Philly on the open market from SF.
a year later the deal looks like a steal but interior DL hasnt traditionally been the most premium position so i wouldnt call the continued strength in that market (or the NFL's bigger than expected cap increase) to have been totally predictable. id imagine he will make christian wilkins pay for any meals together from now on with the extra $10m gtd he got.
St. Brown is the one that I would guess gets prioritized by the Lions. Zero questions about attitude and he can line up anywhere for them.
St. Brown is the one that I would guess gets prioritized by the Lions. Zero questions about attitude and he can line up anywhere for them.
well remember it was an evolution over the year that continued into this week with Chris Jones and Wilkins getting paid.
I think Lamb like Jeffrey Simmons last year has the body of work that will get him paid above of the now most recent top comp (ridley) this spring.
I agree with you on St Brown, he's such a perfect fit in DET I wouldnt be the slightest bit surprised if they have a reasonably simple negotiation like the giants did with dex.
Jefferson I think will be like Bosa/Chris Jones last year. There may be some noise and stalling before he gets himself something very big.
Then the rest will probably become next year's franchise tags/free agents/trade bait like pittman/ridley/higgins.
Quote:
The market will not react like the DT market a year ago. There is either time left on deals (like Chase), lack of negotiating power (Higgins) and not top-end production over their entire career to date (Aijuk, Collins, St. Brown) that would lead to low-ball offers and the player having to bet on himself having another great year.
St. Brown is the one that I would guess gets prioritized by the Lions. Zero questions about attitude and he can line up anywhere for them.
well remember it was an evolution over the year that continued into this week with Chris Jones and Wilkins getting paid.
I think Lamb like Jeffrey Simmons last year has the body of work that will get him paid above of the now most recent top comp (ridley) this spring.
I agree with you on St Brown, he's such a perfect fit in DET I wouldnt be the slightest bit surprised if they have a reasonably simple negotiation like the giants did with dex.
Jefferson I think will be like Bosa/Chris Jones last year. There may be some noise and stalling before he gets himself something very big.
Then the rest will probably become next year's franchise tags/free agents/trade bait like pittman/ridley/higgins.
I think we agree. I guess I was saying rhat last year was the year of the DT eith all those impactful players getting deals that they did. QW, DL and JS are true game changers at their position.
I think JJ is more "controllable" than Lamb. But then, Lamb goes and has a pretty lame (see what I did) game in the playoffs.
Dex, JS and QW can wreck offensive game plans. Not sure that is the case for any of those WRs without excellent QB play. Bengals have a log jam of sorts at the position because they HAVE to pay Chase. Ajiuk is expendable to me.
ridley is 29, had 1000 yards at 13.4 ypc and caught 59% of his targets.
lamb isnt even 25 year, he had 1800 yards at 13 ypc and caught 75% of his targets. back to back all pro teams. to extend him this offseason it's probably going make him WR1 overall deal value and most guaranteed.
if ridley got 92m with 50m gtd, those guys are rightfully going to blow that deal out of the water. id easily take both over higgins, who will also beat the ridley deal if cincy trades him. all of them over ridley.
next years franchise tag for WRs is projected to jump up to 25m and lamb is already playing on an 18m guaranteed 5yo, so for all intents and purposes he already has almost $45m in his pocket at a 2 year aav of 22.5m and the negotiation just goes up from there. jj is actually already a drop higher. aiyuk a drop lower at 2 years 40m.
Even crazier is a 29 year old Ridley is the WR they decide to splurge on for that much money, two years after trading a 24 year old AJ Brown to Philly because they didn't want to pay him.
i havent seen the year by year yet but i think it's a pretty safe guess that's basically a 2 year $50m deal. still a very big number for a guy that age, with the missed time, and off a very so/so season.
he barely outplayed his teammate christian kirk (who averaged more YPG) and he beat his 4x72m by 20m total and 13m guaranteed, basically 1/3 more just 2 years later.
if ridley is worth 92m off just this 1 season out of the last 3 at age 29, what is ceedee at age 25 worth? 150m? 200m? 125m seems like a steal. id imagine he will at least get 3x25m full guaranteed in the first 3 years which would be a cash flow record for the most of any WR in the first 3 years.
Presumably some big portion of the 50M Ridley gets will be accounted against a bigger 2024/2025 cap.
The disruption in the uniformity of the cap increases due to Covid make this a math problem that requires more calculation than I'm capable of doing in my head as well.
All that to say, there's an inflation adjustment that I presume make the Kirk and Ridley deal pretty similar over some reasonable period of employment.
Presumably some big portion of the 50M Ridley gets will be accounted against a bigger 2024/2025 cap.
The disruption in the uniformity of the cap increases due to Covid make this a math problem that requires more calculation than I'm capable of doing in my head as well.
All that to say, there's an inflation adjustment that I presume make the Kirk and Ridley deal pretty similar over some reasonable period of employment.
i think i did the math on a different thread (maybe the thread when the cap increase was higher than expected?) and the cap is 25% higher than 2022 now (and that offseason i think jax had like 100m available to spend). I think ridley's %'s increase over kirk is even higher than that. Ridley may be the more talented player but at 29 i think both were flawed free agents. the guarantee jumping up a full 33% from 37m --> 50m is the biggest thing.
though i guess re: kirk, it's year 3 and he's still on his deal. his cap number is current $24m and no guaranteed $ left to pay out. 14.5m base this year, 15.5m next. by the end of this year he'll have pocketed 55m cash. if he plays the way he did the first 2 years he may play out that whole deal.
So I'd start with Kirk's cash in 22-24 as a percentage of those caps. And Ridley presumably in 24-26 as a percentage of those caps.
My guess is the ratio is pretty close.
So I'd start with Kirk's cash in 22-24 as a percentage of those caps. And Ridley presumably in 24-26 as a percentage of those caps.
My guess is the ratio is pretty close.
kirk 2022 = 21.5m cash, 208m cap, 10.3% (20m sb, 1.5m base)
kirk 2023 = 16m cash, 225m cap, 7%
kirk 2024 = 16.5m cash, 252m cap, 6.5%
ridley's details arent out yet but we know he got $50m fully guaranteed. if we assume that full $50m gets paid out in year 1 + 2 cash at 25m per for simplicity sake his year 1 is 10% and year 2 probably 9.6% at OTC's current cap projection. id probably guess he gets closer to a 30m signing bonus so the year 1 is higher (12%+) and 20m (7%?) in year 2.
2% sounds small, but if it's 50m in the first 2 ridley is getting a 10-20% larger share of the cap than kirks deal paid him.
i think focusing on the first 2 years which were both basically fully guaranteed (without the bonuses) is the way to look at it because that's what was guaranteed on the day of signing, and if you make those adjustments i think you will see that spread closer to the 2%?
Indexed to the cap, they are pretty similar deals.
I think the headline is if I'm one of the big name guys looking for a deal, I lead with "50M guaranteed pays me the 2024 adjusted equivalent of Christian Kirk."
I think the headline is if I'm one of the big name guys looking for a deal, I lead with "50M guaranteed pays me the 2024 adjusted equivalent of Christian Kirk."
100% agree. And what's truly amazing is that the Kirk deal is actually aging decently enough that they havent cut him heading into year 3. Kirk isnt going to cost them much more over the next 2 years than they are paying gabe davis.
so lets say you were Ceedee Lamb, he's got 19m gtd already in his pocket right now. Next year's WR tag projected at 25m. what is the guaranteed number you need to say yes to an extension? i think it is probably beating andrew thomas' 68m guarantee which is the highest non-QB offensive player.