we can start with the obvious one, we suck:
| The following chart shows how well NFL teams have played this season in terms of expected points added per play. To improve predictive power, high-leverage plays such as turnovers and goal-line plays are down-weighted a bit. Additionally, the team strengths account for opponents faced. |
but, part of that sucking has been the hardest schedule in the nfl by what looks to be a healthy margin:
here's a chart that should surprise nobody - thanks to the OL, injuries, and difficult schedule the giants offense is getting sacked and scrambling more than any other by almost 50% more than the next closest team in both stats. they are double league average in both.
| With passing targets being the most efficient outcome of a dropback on average, just getting a throw off more often than others can already be an important indicator of a good offense. There are notable exceptions for teams with mobile quarterbacks, but teams mostly want to have a large green bar (targets) and a small purple bar (sacks) in the chart below: |
here's the same chart except showing dropbacks when teams are pressured by the defense - you will notice every team gets worse when they face pressure and the league average drop is 22% fewer drop backs turning into targets (nyg delta is 26% fewer drop backs turning to targets):
sort of interesting subset here, but it looks like the offenses most impacted by pressure are:
Cincy with 84% targets all dropbacks but only 52% when pressured = - 32%
Philly with 78% targets all dropbacks but only 47% when pressured = -31%
the only glimmer of a silver lining is that this was a murphy's law first 5 weeks - a very bad time to be without Thomas and go through all the other OL injuries, going forward hopefully some of those guys come back as the schedule lightens up and we can at least see the coaching staff hold the lockerroom together unlike prior regimes and field a team that's somewhat competitive even if the season is already shot:
NFL season-long statistical review after Week 5: Team tiers, dropback outcomes and more - (
New Window )
the rest of the defensive front obviously needs to get figured out but the strength of the defense from last year is still there.
Thanks. 🥸
The dropback results chart visually depicts the pit in my stomach every time we run a pass play.
That chart shows why the Giants are having a lot of issues in the overall pass game imv.
Against a team that the OL can match up with like the Cardinals you have a chance. SF, Dallas, Seattle and then Miami tough deal.
Great work!
/sarcasm off
Leonard Williams haters - check out that last chart. It’s becoming increasingly clear he needs to be extended.
And finally, the first chart shows to me that we are in fact the worst team in the NFL. It’s close but we are the worst.
/sarcasm off
There are a few posters who point out legit concerns about Jones. There are several more you would be better off ignoring as they have stopped being reasonable about it.
When you have posters writing that Davis Webb is a better quarterback, and others supporting the legitimacy of that post, it s time to disengage
The same can be said for those who fail to acknowledge that the epic failure of this line is not an excuse for Jones, but a legitimate “reason” for his regression.
Football people understand that, enraged fans, looking for someone to be mad at don’t.
Daniel Jones is the Giants quarterback, if this tailspin continues the team might be in position to draft an elite college quarterback, it would be irresponsible not to do so.
But if the line gets healthy, it is also possible the Giants with Daniel at the helm win enough games to render that possibility mute.
Just watch the games and let the season play out, there is nothing more to debate about Jones. For some he showed enough last season to be comfortable with him going forward.
For others, who remained pretty quiet last season, but are out in full force again they want him out regardless of last season or what may happen the remainder the of this one
The schedule has been brutal, and the injuries have been to our best players. 1-4 is about what you would expect, but it doesn't make it any easier to deal with.
I don't think the defense has played terribly, despite stats. They are getting no help from the offense in keeping the other offenses off the field and they got 3 whole points from the two takeaways handed to them last week. You just cannot hang with these good teams for the whole game and eventually the score limits the offensive playbook.
Starting with the Commanders, they have a chance to climb out of the hole a little bit. Show us something.
Quote:
It's all Daniel Jones' fault!!!!!
/sarcasm off
There are a few posters who point out legit concerns about Jones. There are several more you would be better off ignoring as they have stopped being reasonable about it.
When you have posters writing that Davis Webb is a better quarterback, and others supporting the legitimacy of that post, it s time to disengage
The same can be said for those who fail to acknowledge that the epic failure of this line is not an excuse for Jones, but a legitimate “reason” for his regression.
Football people understand that, enraged fans, looking for someone to be mad at don’t.
Daniel Jones is the Giants quarterback, if this tailspin continues the team might be in position to draft an elite college quarterback, it would be irresponsible not to do so.
But if the line gets healthy, it is also possible the Giants with Daniel at the helm win enough games to render that possibility mute.
Just watch the games and let the season play out, there is nothing more to debate about Jones. For some he showed enough last season to be comfortable with him going forward.
For others, who remained pretty quiet last season, but are out in full force again they want him out regardless of last season or what may happen the remainder the of this one
Leonard Williams haters - check out that last chart. It’s becoming increasingly clear he needs to be extended.
So, you want to invest more cap $s in IDL? NFW if that worth it.
LW (15%) and Sexy (2%) combined eat up 17% of the 2023 cap dollars.
Next year, Sexy eats up 9% alone. Are you expecting Team Williams to take a home team discount?
Leonard Williams haters - check out that last chart. It’s becoming increasingly clear he needs to be extended.
And finally, the first chart shows to me that we are in fact the worst team in the NFL. It’s close but we are the worst.
yeah some of this kind of tempered my frustration with the defense, though i do think there's clearly something causing more breakdowns this year.
and yes, to date they have been the worst team in the nfl. their -91 point differential is almost 40 full points worse than the 0-5 panthers. it is a miracle they have 1 win.
Quote:
Leonard Williams haters - check out that last chart. It’s becoming increasingly clear he needs to be extended.
So, you want to invest more cap $s in IDL? NFW if that worth it.
LW (15%) and Sexy (2%) combined eat up 17% of the 2023 cap dollars.
Next year, Sexy eats up 9% alone. Are you expecting Team Williams to take a home team discount?
it just depends what's on the market. calais campbell has signed some reasonable deals as he's gotten older and missed a little more time or played fewer snaps.
if someone offers williams hargraves money he's gone but depending on how the rest of the year goes, and who the DC is next offseason, right now it's impossible to say.
Quote:
Leonard Williams haters - check out that last chart. It’s becoming increasingly clear he needs to be extended.
So, you want to invest more cap $s in IDL? NFW if that worth it.
LW (15%) and Sexy (2%) combined eat up 17% of the 2023 cap dollars.
Next year, Sexy eats up 9% alone. Are you expecting Team Williams to take a home team discount?
Bw- I know we disagree conceptually about this. I don’t believe in positional value for the EdGE roles and on the DL in a 3-4. You have high level talent there, you make sure to keep it. It’s about matchups and forcing double teams. If we had 3 Dexters on the DL, you pay all of them.
Do you think 5 games is enough to draw serious conclusions from?
wouldn't go that far - they absolutely deserved it for the fg before half and td coming out of half. that 10 points ended the game and the hill td was just too easy. mckinney can say whatever he wants but that's an inexcusable spot to put a 7th round rookie cb in.
Do you think 5 games is enough to draw serious conclusions from?
yes in that the 5 games are what they are - an unmitigated disaster. if they arent the worst 5 first games in giants history they are close. 4/5 were losses by more than 15 points and the 5th was the teams biggest comeback ever because they were down by 21.
im not sure these games will define any players career but if the coaching staff cant get things more competitive quickly things are going to get pretty judge'y.
Bw- I know we disagree conceptually about this. I don’t believe in positional value for the EdGE roles and on the DL in a 3-4. You have high level talent there, you make sure to keep it. It’s about matchups and forcing double teams. If we had 3 Dexters on the DL, you pay all of them.
Yeah, we are not going to agree spending big $s for 2 DTs. I really struggle to think of a team who has consistently competed with two high priced DTs in the cap model. There have been teams with two good DTs, but not both high priced.
I'd rather pivot away from LW, thank him for his time, and use that money for a much bigger problem area - OL.
I'm very impressed with the results of your work - it really should shut up a lot of the Dan Jones haters (but it won't).
Something else that really jumps out is how good Leo is at QB pressures. For several years, I've said that he could be a very good 4-3 defensive end (in the mold of a Mike Strahan).
The season is a train wreck, but I'm not giving up. The cupboard's not bare, it's just about putting the pieces in the right locations on defense.
On offense, the line is a disaster - Plenty of skill players with just JMS & Thomas showing they're worthy of wearing the uniform.
Bringing in Pugh, Collins etc. trying to patch up the O-line. I don't agree, however, that one side of the ball is more important than the other
Bringing in Pugh, Collins etc. trying to patch up the O-line. I don't agree, however, that one side of the ball is more important than the other
i also give them credit for bringing in vet OL. maybe too little too late but better than nothing.
kind of reminiscent of the year after the 2nd super bowl when david wilson and the OL cost them several games and then they added peyton hillis and a few other vets who stabilized things to at least being competitive. jamon brown was another year where they added someone midseason to correct a mistake and it helped.
this year is now about seeing whether or not this coaching staff can get back up off the mat.
this is another somewhat positive sign for the defense since they are getting pressure, problem is whether it's because of blitzes or just miscommunications they are getting gashed by explosive plays (chart #2).
I don't think the defense has played terribly, despite stats. They are getting no help from the offense in keeping the other offenses off the field and they got 3 whole points from the two takeaways handed to them last week. You just cannot hang with these good teams for the whole game and eventually the score limits the offensive playbook.
Starting with the Commanders, they have a chance to climb out of the hole a little bit. Show us something.
IMO the Defense has been God-Awful. Part of the problem is that the Offense has been more embarrassing. I cant believe a few weeks ago some people thought the Giants D played "pretty good" vs Seattle. They run the ball down our throat. We have no sacks. No turnovers and yet there is talk it was pretty good?
I said a few years ago some of you have been so beaten down. They haven't held ONETEAM so far to under 100 yards rushing. As a Ginats fan - hwo we grew up -- it's okay to be psuhed around so badly? After 4 games we have no sacks OR intercpetions or fumble recoveries caused by good Defense. Yet the Defense hasnt been that bad????
If you can't stop the run and you can't cause turnovers or sack the QB in a league set up to pass- then you aren't going to hold many teams down. Your only hope is to play simialr crummy teams. Because the quality teams can usually do both. Or are exceptional in one area.
Based on the opponents? C'mon. Four games and miserable in all 4? Is that something anyone fans, the players, the staff or mannagement should be proud of? That it's okay to get wiped out whenever you play a very good team? Is that the bar to set? How can we say our Defense isn't a doormat vs very good teams?