- Luis Severino has joined the Mets in free agency after a mixed history with the Yankees. His career with the Yankees was marked by both success and extensive injuries. Severino signed a one-year, $13 million deal with the Mets.
Mets' Catching Depth:
- The Mets' catching depth is a concern, regarding Omar Narváez's performance and health. Cooper Hmel is considered a potential replacement for Narváez. They also picked up Tyler Heineman.
- Joey Wendle was picked up to replace LG as the utility man.
- Kyle Crick, a new Mets relief pitcher, has joined on a minor league deal with hopes of strengthening the bullpen.
The Mets have signed Austin Adams, Joseph Yabbour, Andre Scrubb and Cole Sulser to aid bullpen depth.
Mets Winter Meetings Focus:
- The Mets are expected to be active at the Winter Meetings, with a focus on acquiring an outfielder, starting pitching, and relief pitching. They are also interested in improving run prevention and outfield defense.
- The team may engage in trade talks, expect to hear the usual prospect names such as Kevin Parada, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, and Ronny Mauricio.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Player Meetings:
- The New York Mets are planning to meet with Japanese pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next week and he is expected to continue to draw significant interest from MLB teams.
- Shohei Ohtani is also expected to make a decision on his next team soon, with bids for his services surpassing $500 million.
- The Mets are also considering Korean outfielder Jung Hoo Lee.
Summary from pre Winter Meeting thread:
Hall of Fame Ballot Newbies: Inclusion of players like Big Sexy, Wright, and Reyes in the Hall of Fame ballot.
- Several iconic Yankees and Mets greats were in contention for Hall of Fame induction, but they fell short of the required votes.
Management and Coaching Updates: Significant changes in the Mets' management and coaching staff, including a new contract for manager Mendoza. Bench coach vacancy and role shifts for Eric Chavez and Jeremy Barnes as hitting coaches. Introduction of Kris Gross and Andy Green in player development and amateur scouting.
Pitching Strategy and Market Moves: Focus on fortifying the rotation, implications of the Cardinals' signings, and the pursuit of high-caliber pitchers.
Bullpen and Player Performance: Signing of BP arms to minor league deals and review of the players.
Previous Mets thread: - (
New Window )
I'm having a hard time seeing the Mets come away with Yamamoto personally.
We know the Asian players like to be on the west coast for obvious reasons. If the Dodgers don't land Shohei, they'll just throw tons of cash at Yamamoto. If the Dodgers do get Ohtani then San Francisco has the cash to play with.
I know we will offer a boatload of cash, but Yamamoto is going to have to be ok with the geography.
Incoming .800 OPS/30 HR/ 30 SB year for Kelenic
This team is in danger of what is happening with the Giants....looking up at Philly and Dallas.
Atlanta and Philly are doing things right and I feel like the Mets are without a real plan.
This off-season could be a real indicator of what the next five years holds.....fighting for third place with Florida and Washington.
Braves aren't keeping Gonzalez. They are going to trade him again per Rosenthal.
for
soto
who says no?
obviously this is assuming ohtani doesn't go to toronto.
vlad jr has 2 years of control and SD needs a 1b.
manoah who knows but the upside is there and they get 4 years of control. dont think TOR can count on him so in their shoes why not?
is the upgrade from soto to vlad jr enough to pull the trigger? is tiedemann + manoah a preferable deal for both sides?
i wouldnt mind that i think they need a + defensive CF to hedge nimmo. clearly marte aint that (or anything else they can count on).
i think thats mostly what they see in margot, who i have always liked and i think is a bit of a higher end option than taylor or bader (steamer proejcts margot better offensively than both but not as valuable defensively).
margot has had some mixed defensive metrics the last couple years but he's still 29 and the sprint speed is still there so may just be noise since he doesnt have big sample sizes at any 1 position.
IMO, that money is so much better spent over bidding someone by a mil as a FA. Don't overpay for mehh and become known as the salary dumpster.
If you're taking on money, I'd save that for the deadline when teams are shedding and paying.
Something like that Correa deal (with a different ending, of course)
IMO, that money is so much better spent over bidding someone by a mil as a FA. Don't overpay for mehh and become known as the salary dumpster.
If you're taking on money, I'd save that for the deadline when teams are shedding and paying.
i assume tampa will have to include an asset to move the margot $.
It's not like they are trading Jordan Montgomery for him, and then cutting him...
for
soto
who says no?
obviously this is assuming ohtani doesn't go to toronto.
vlad jr has 2 years of control and SD needs a 1b.
manoah who knows but the upside is there and they get 4 years of control. dont think TOR can count on him so in their shoes why not?
is the upgrade from soto to vlad jr enough to pull the trigger? is tiedemann + manoah a preferable deal for both sides?
Not sure this makes sense from either side. For SD, they don't get the SP they desperately need and have to rely on Manoah who's a really risky bet at this juncture.
For Toronto, they upgrade from Vlad to Soto but risk Soto walking next year and getting nothing left in return. With their stadium renovations and the resulting increase in ticket prices, that's awfully risky and probably doesn't get them over the hump anyways.
Tiedemann is a more interesting centerpiece but I don't see Toronto making him available for a rental and even if they did, can SD really count on him in their rotation for this season? He was far from lights out in the minors this year. Manoah is the wild card though. Maybe SD views him differently but to me he's a guy you throw in to sweeten the pot and hope you can fix him but there are a number of red flags there.
Not worth getting into much further than that, in my view, because I don't think the Padres are interested in anything like this. The motivations to move Soto are almost exclusively financial in nature. They need to cut significant money on a net basis now, and they want multiple pieces that are very cheap (for term) and very close to the bigs.
exactly how id view him too. that's why i think there's maybe some legs to a manoah as a 2nd piece package.
there is no young, cheap, proven top of rotation anyone is giving them for soto. almost none exist in the first place. so they are going to have to take a chance on a king projecting, or an edward carbera type taking a leap (soto not going to marlins, just using cabrera as an example) or a manoah type bouncing back.
id imagine the deal that gets done is 1 piece like that SD can slot into their rotation along with a top prospect and then some spare parts (and extra salary dumped).
as much as nyy seem to not want to go there a King + Dominguez + some less valuable stuff would simplify things a lot i think. that's a pretty close deal to what lad gave up for betts.
Not worth getting into much further than that, in my view, because I don't think the Padres are interested in anything like this. The motivations to move Soto are almost exclusively financial in nature. They need to cut significant money on a net basis now, and they want multiple pieces that are very cheap (for term) and very close to the bigs.
i had toronto kicking in cash too, which if they miss out on ohtani they will seemingly have plenty of to use to facilitate a move like this. maybe they also take back cronenworth.
Based on that guys track record, lock it in for an introductory presser next week at Citi Field!
Quote:
I think SD would be the ones adding to their side of the package, probably significantly. That extra year of control is huge.
Not worth getting into much further than that, in my view, because I don't think the Padres are interested in anything like this. The motivations to move Soto are almost exclusively financial in nature. They need to cut significant money on a net basis now, and they want multiple pieces that are very cheap (for term) and very close to the bigs.
i had toronto kicking in cash too, which if they miss out on ohtani they will seemingly have plenty of to use to facilitate a move like this. maybe they also take back cronenworth.
What I meant was that Toronto should RECEIVE more. I don’t think they’d need to take on Cronenworth or add prospects.
But for the other reasons I listed I don’t think this would be remotely in play even as a framework.
sfg
toronto
mystery team a
mystery team b
complicated right now with sfg and tor believed to be ohtani finalists.
@mikemayer22
·
1m
Carlos Mendoza says he’s excited about the options the Mets have at third base and went on to mention Ronny Mauricio, Brett Baty, and Joey Wendle.
Quote:
In comment 16313303 bigbluehoya said:
Quote:
I think SD would be the ones adding to their side of the package, probably significantly. That extra year of control is huge.
Not worth getting into much further than that, in my view, because I don't think the Padres are interested in anything like this. The motivations to move Soto are almost exclusively financial in nature. They need to cut significant money on a net basis now, and they want multiple pieces that are very cheap (for term) and very close to the bigs.
i had toronto kicking in cash too, which if they miss out on ohtani they will seemingly have plenty of to use to facilitate a move like this. maybe they also take back cronenworth.
What I meant was that Toronto should RECEIVE more. I don’t think they’d need to take on Cronenworth or add prospects.
But for the other reasons I listed I don’t think this would be remotely in play even as a framework.
i understood your point about toronto needing to receive more for vlad, im not sure i agree with it because it depends heavily on whether or not they plan to extend him long term which will probably be pretty darn expensive.
i was responding to the financial motivation because the trade i suggested did include cash to alleviate that. SD wants to still compete so i think a framework around 2 big leaguers would be something that would get them interested.
The Jays and Angels also have interest in Shohei Ohtani, and would likely be unable to sign both Ohtani and Yamamoto.
The Mets and Yankees have long been linked to Yamamoto and remain in on him, SNY's Andy Martino has reported.
The Red Sox, Cubs, Dodgers, and Giants have also been linked to the Japanese ace.
Per Martino, Yamamoto is unlikely to sign during the Winter Meetings.
He is expected to travel back to the United States after the meetings and meet with teams that are finalists for him.
@ChrisCotillo
Eduardo Rodriguez is at the Opryland, presumably to meet with teams.
And if they can't get him, at the very least they need to get Yoko Ono.
https://youtu.be/k5YIJ1pZEBc?t=79
sfg
toronto
mystery team a
mystery team b
complicated right now with sfg and tor believed to be ohtani finalists.
There was a surprising report earlier that Atlanta is in play for Ohtani but don't panic they are not the favorite by any means. He reportedly would like to play in Atlanta because they are a good team with a young core that he finds intriguing BUT there is no way the Braves will pay $500 million for him. I would be surprised if he doesn't sign with the Dodgers or Giants.
he kind of telegraphed that when he said mauricio and baty were both focused on IF not OF a few weeks back. will be interesting to see if they have a strong preference for mauricio at 3b or 2b.
That would be a disappointment, I’d really prefer Yamamoto.
:-D
if they miss out on yamamoto you will come around on snell too ;)
heyman sort of insinuated that snell may be their fallback plan today.
“ The Mets aren’t assuming anything and are showing interest in other free-agent pitchers, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Among the fallback options, they may have a possible preference for Snell.”
“They may” I’d be stunned if they signed Snell. Truly stunned
“ The Mets aren’t assuming anything and are showing interest in other free-agent pitchers, including Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and Eduardo Rodriguez. Among the fallback options, they may have a possible preference for Snell.”
“They may” I’d be stunned if they signed Snell. Truly stunned
And FWIW Martino claims the Mets have *not* shown any interest in E-Rod. His words “zero interest”
I think that’s true now but if they miss things will change. We’ll see I guess, cohen hasn’t missed much so it probably won’t come to that.
(Stearns has dipped into the KBO before (Lindblom) so it’s not impossible it’s the Mets
lol
lol
If I was the Mets I’d sign Montgomery now knowing that you’re going after Yamamoto no matter what anyway. Have to figure the second YY comes off the board the price tag goes up on all these guys.
YY, Monty and Severino is a slam dunk given the pitching the Mets needed coming into the offseason.
Quote:
rotation is going to be Senga, Bauer, Quintana, MeGill and Severino/Peterson.
lol
If I was the Mets I’d sign Montgomery now knowing that you’re going after Yamamoto no matter what anyway. Have to figure the second YY comes off the board the price tag goes up on all these guys.
YY, Monty and Severino is a slam dunk given the pitching the Mets needed coming into the offseason.
the issue is monty likely waits to see where yamamoto goes knoiwing the teams that miss out start getting more aggressive. unless theres a place he wants to go and doesnt mind possibly sacrificing 1 year or a little aav.
only 7 games there last year (and career) between both levels so hopefully rust but yeesh.
he had 12 errors in 56 games at 2b in AAA but in big leagues he had 0 in 21 games and looked comfortable.
picking a spot and letting him acclimate is probably for the best but they also need to pick right. as a bigger guy 3rd probably makes more sense but they also have baty.
not envious of whoever needs to sort out the decisions with these kids. probably part of why im so willing to trade them for soto.
@Feinsand
·
15m
It appears Erick Fedde’s decision is coming down to the White Sox and Mets, per source. A deal - expected to be in the two-year, $10 million range - could be finalized by Tuesday.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
10m
Mets have been very active in the starters market in the last 48 hours sources have told me. Fedde one they are in on in addition to Jordan Montgomery, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and other lower profile options. Seems Fedde’s closer to signing than any other targets they have an eye on.
5b
Quote:
believes the Yankees are indeed in the drivers seat for Yamamoto.
Based on that guys track record, lock it in for an introductory presser next week at Citi Field!
lol
He was not subject to MLB drug testing last year, so who knows. Trying to remain optimistic on him...
Seriously though, he's a 6th starter. He better not open in the rotation, save for injury or serious "improvement"
Quote:
Would he be in an ideal rotation, 3/4?
5b
#bigsplash
The 30-year-old has a 2.59 ERA and 74 strikeouts in 59 innings the last two seasons in the Japan Central League.
He last pitched in the big leagues in 2021.
It's a good move if he's a 6th/7th SP like that. 2 FA TBD, Senga, Quintana, Sevy
Mauricio has hit very well so far but I was told by one of the writers that he could easily have 5 errors at this point. Maybe he’s pressing but he has to improve defensively at 3B
I say this obviously in light of the reports that Ohtani might actually wind up back with the Angels or in LA.
Not sure how the eastern franchises can compete in a crowded market when you have the Asian ballplayers logically looking to stay as far west as possible for obvious reasons.
Our main draw is that Cohen has more money than anyone, and I guess that Senga is here already? If that is even a draw for YY. The Giants and Dodgers both have enough money to get him if they want.
I say this obviously in light of the reports that Ohtani might actually wind up back with the Angels or in LA.
Not sure how the eastern franchises can compete in a crowded market when you have the Asian ballplayers logically looking to stay as far west as possible for obvious reasons.
Our main draw is that Cohen has more money than anyone, and I guess that Senga is here already? If that is even a draw for YY. The Giants and Dodgers both have enough money to get him if they want.
Or in Toronto that should read re: Ohtani.
Link - ( New Window )
It feels like the Wilpon times, where we are fighting with the bottom feeder Sox for guys who have been out of the majors for two years, right?
But the reality is, in those days he'd be counted on as a 4th SP. With no backup plan.
But coming into this offseason there were several massive holes on this roster, and it was all on the bump. We lacked TOR and depth in the rotation, and same for the BP. They are taking several very low risk, but with upside signings. With backups to the backups for depth.
If they swing and miss at the top of the market, they at least got the depth they wanted and need. SP and RP.
Fedde isn't the pitcher he was when he left the states, I think Dan linked an article about it. Who knows what he's got to offer, but why not take a chance? You can't sign a 5th BP arm for 2/$12, so why not???
Quote:
2 hits and a SB.. also his 4th error at 3B
Mauricio has hit very well so far but I was told by one of the writers that he could easily have 5 errors at this point. Maybe he’s pressing but he has to improve defensively at 3B
Did we get any read-out on the "types of Errors" Ronny is charged with ?
Slow Rollers he has to bare-hand and throw ?
Hard hit grounders off his chest ?
Throwing errors across the diamond ?
I realize he's had two months off, and he's just getting back on the field. He's got the arm to play third, but the Hot Corner is not a position you 'learn on the fly'
I saw him make a few nice pivots at 2B last fall, and he chased down a pop-up in foul territory that nobody was going to get to.
The left field experiment ended quickly. Let's give the kid a chance to succeed.
I say this obviously in light of the reports that Ohtani might actually wind up back with the Angels or in LA.
Not sure how the eastern franchises can compete in a crowded market when you have the Asian ballplayers logically looking to stay as far west as possible for obvious reasons.
Our main draw is that Cohen has more money than anyone, and I guess that Senga is here already? If that is even a draw for YY. The Giants and Dodgers both have enough money to get him if they want.
9/10 times players take biggest contract offer - and there's as much or more reason to believe that will be mets as anyone else. They spent $40m more than the next closest team in mlb history, and tried to spend even more than that with correa.
they went head to head with dodgers for best pitcher on market in 2 of the last 3 offseasons, winning 1 and losing 1. they got JV and Senga last year.
any individual player can be the 1/10, especially if we are talking about a foreign player choosing where to live in a new country, but id be pretty floored if they dont sign at least 1 of Yamamoto, Montgomery, Snell.
https://sny.tv/articles/mets-2024-mlb-draft-lottery-need-know - ( New Window )
As well as trading away a top prospect...
if they get both soto and yamamoto that will be a wow.
and if LAD miss on ohtani? talk about chaos.
i have a hard time believing all 3 will go that way, but i guess we will see. crazy that if yankees miss on either 1 at this point i think their fans will consider it a letdown.
Quote:
In comment 16313693 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
2 hits and a SB.. also his 4th error at 3B
Mauricio has hit very well so far but I was told by one of the writers that he could easily have 5 errors at this point. Maybe he’s pressing but he has to improve defensively at 3B
Did we get any read-out on the "types of Errors" Ronny is charged with ?
Slow Rollers he has to bare-hand and throw ?
Hard hit grounders off his chest ?
Throwing errors across the diamond ?
I realize he's had two months off, and he's just getting back on the field. He's got the arm to play third, but the Hot Corner is not a position you 'learn on the fly'
I saw him make a few nice pivots at 2B last fall, and he chased down a pop-up in foul territory that nobody was going to get to.
The left field experiment ended quickly. Let's give the kid a chance to succeed.
3 of the 4 errors have been throwing. The other was a booted ball.
Would be a bummer to lose him to a west coast team, but I could completely understand why it's hard for NYM to compete with that.
Losing him to NYY would be an extra bitter pill to swallow. If he's willing to play in NY, then Cohen needs to make sure he's turning down a lot of money to play in the Bronx. The Mets need to close this out. A 25-year old ace is too valuable to miss out on given the dire depth we have the minors.
Quote:
Sources now saying the Yankees believe they will sign Yamamoto.
if they get both soto and yamamoto that will be a wow.
and if LAD miss on ohtani? talk about chaos.
i have a hard time believing all 3 will go that way, but i guess we will see. crazy that if yankees miss on either 1 at this point i think their fans will consider it a letdown.
Yes, their fans will. Which is why their strategy has backfired on them for so long.
Ask any Yankee fan if Cashman is a good GM or not?
Then ask them how the franchise has don the past decade.
Then have them look up the winningest franchise in baseball the past ten years or so.
Found a neat graphic, lots of surprises on there IMO
Graphic link - ( New Window )
Found a neat graphic, lots of surprises on there IMO
Graphic link - ( New Window )
Cleveland with the fourth best winning percentage is a bit of a surprise.
Quote:
In comment 16313870 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Sources now saying the Yankees believe they will sign Yamamoto.
if they get both soto and yamamoto that will be a wow.
and if LAD miss on ohtani? talk about chaos.
i have a hard time believing all 3 will go that way, but i guess we will see. crazy that if yankees miss on either 1 at this point i think their fans will consider it a letdown.
Yes, their fans will. Which is why their strategy has backfired on them for so long.
Ask any Yankee fan if Cashman is a good GM or not?
Then ask them how the franchise has don the past decade.
Then have them look up the winningest franchise in baseball the past ten years or so.
i get all that but this seems a little different. i dont recall a team ever getting this out over their skiis setting expectations this high before.
soto is a trade but will be in line next year for either the biggest or 2nd biggest contract in MLB history (depending on how high ohtani goes this year).
yamamoto seems to be trending towards getting the 2nd biggest contract for a pitcher ever to only Cole.
nyy already have cole (36m), rendon (28m), stanton (32m), judge (40m) all through 2028 or beyond. all 31 or older already.
that's $134m on 4 players already and basically $200m on 6 players if they get both yamamoto and soto.
last year was their highest OD payroll ever and it was 268m.
if the yankees get both it will a more "all in" roster than the mets had last year, by a good margin. they will have at minimum the 2nd highest payroll ever, they will be the 2nd team into the cohen tax, and they will be landlocked there for probably a half decade.
1 more year of rizzo at 17m.
and $15m of buried/retained $ (donaldson, hicks).
so $200m on 6 players,
$47m of bad $ on dj/rizzo (x3 years for dj),
+50m of projected arb/prearb
and tommy kahnle, their sole veteran RP taking them over $300m. and if im remembering correctly BP was one of their biggest issues last year so they'd probably need to keep spending.
the math is crazy, and martino is saying the same thing and he's as well sourced as anyone w/ yankees right now writing that cashman book. maybe cashman really just says f it (literally) and is all in?
@jonbecker_
An intriguing free agent I've seen nobody talk about: Shelby Miller. Allowed just 19 hits in 42 innings (.135 BAA), backed up pretty darn well by xBA allowed (.188). Gets elite extension so his fastball velo plays up
1 more year of rizzo at 17m.
and $15m of buried/retained $ (donaldson, hicks).
so $200m on 6 players,
$47m of bad $ on dj/rizzo (x3 years for dj),
+50m of projected arb/prearb
and tommy kahnle, their sole veteran RP taking them over $300m. and if im remembering correctly BP was one of their biggest issues last year so they'd probably need to keep spending.
the math is crazy, and martino is saying the same thing and he's as well sourced as anyone w/ yankees right now writing that cashman book. maybe cashman really just says f it (literally) and is all in?
Their bullpen wasn't outstanding but it was more than fine. 9th in era/16th in FIP
"Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
Scratching my head w/ some of the Fedde data I saw from KBO.
Was expecting something to be different … and everything looks … the same between 2022 and 2023?
Velo up a little. Sinker shape slightly worse (obviously different ball), throwing sinker more.
Big shrug from me. 🤷♂️"
Lance Brozdowski
@LanceBroz
Yeah, maybe I’m discounting the sweeper improvement. I have it 78 last year to 81-82 average in NPB. Def a grade jump there.
But just don’t think the sinker is good. 🤷♂️
Who knows if it works over here. Less likely it will than won't - but it's just money. Back end RP money.
Quote:
Sources now saying the Yankees believe they will sign Yamamoto.
Would be a bummer to lose him to a west coast team, but I could completely understand why it's hard for NYM to compete with that.
Losing him to NYY would be an extra bitter pill to swallow. If he's willing to play in NY, then Cohen needs to make sure he's turning down a lot of money to play in the Bronx. The Mets need to close this out. A 25-year old ace is too valuable to miss out on given the dire depth we have the minors.
Absolutely
Who knows if it works over here. Less likely it will than won't - but it's just money. Back end RP money.
It's fine for the price but I was hoping to read more substantial changes than apparently what really happened. KBO offense was down substantially this season (6 players hit 20+ homers) so that certainly helped him.
But it changes my approach.
I'd even consider trying to reset - to the extent possible - and get under the luxury tax and create a new plan.
the Mets don't have the pitching prospects, don't have the young pitchers at the major league level. Don't have much bullpen depth, and the lineup has holes.
Not saying there is nothing salvageable but my model to compete is quality and quantity approach to starting pitching (5 #2/3's is better than an ace and 4 4's, or even two old aces and a bunch of 4/5/6's like last year) if you know what I mean), elite bullpen and top notch defense. - like the SF Giants WS teams.
I don't see how the Mets get there. Even Yamamoto wasn't a given - sure he'd help, but there is a lot of work even if the Mets do somehow wind up with him.
@patrickrglynn
John Herman says:
-The Cubs are interested in Rhys Hoskins because “Pete Alonso isn’t going anywhere”
-The Braves are interested in Seth Lugo
-Yoshinobu Yamamoto is the Mets’ top choice in free agency
Quote:
But it is less about his pitch usage over there, than his pitch quality that changed.
Who knows if it works over here. Less likely it will than won't - but it's just money. Back end RP money.
It's fine for the price but I was hoping to read more substantial changes than apparently what really happened. KBO offense was down substantially this season (6 players hit 20+ homers) so that certainly helped him.
I completely botched what I typed vs what my brain meant...
I meant pitch quality didn't change, but how he used them.
Again, if the expectation at that price is backend BP arm, who can give you innings as a SP too? Sign a bunch of them till the kids are ready to take that role for min wage.
This just screams of a typical Pitt signing that they get something back for at the trade deadline lol
Found a neat graphic, lots of surprises on there IMO
Graphic link - ( New Window )
Interestingly, the Dodgers and Royals have the same number of World Series Championships in that time frame.
Zero indication either way how it went, no one will say anything lol.
Quote:
that contract is probably almost as toxic as marte's.
1 more year of rizzo at 17m.
and $15m of buried/retained $ (donaldson, hicks).
so $200m on 6 players,
$47m of bad $ on dj/rizzo (x3 years for dj),
+50m of projected arb/prearb
and tommy kahnle, their sole veteran RP taking them over $300m. and if im remembering correctly BP was one of their biggest issues last year so they'd probably need to keep spending.
the math is crazy, and martino is saying the same thing and he's as well sourced as anyone w/ yankees right now writing that cashman book. maybe cashman really just says f it (literally) and is all in?
Their bullpen wasn't outstanding but it was more than fine. 9th in era/16th in FIP
the aggregate may look ok (and even that ok is a down year considering they've had the most productive bp in mlb for the last decade) but they blew big games from june on and wore down in the 2nd half (era was more than a half point higher 2nd half than 1st). even last year's mets team which had the least late game comebacks i can ever remember came back on them to steal a split in june.
this was from an article in July, and remember the rumored soto deal has at least 2 or 3 of pieces from last year's mlb bp going to SD. brito and king were each worth about 1.8 fwar combined from a bp that totaled 4.2 fwar.
The bullpen’s recent struggles have been exemplified in three recent, brutal defeats.
On July 5, the Yankees had a chance to win a four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles; after winning the first two games, the team took a 2-0 entering the sixth inning when Aaron Boone took the ball from Randy Vazquez and put Ramirez in the game. The Orioles promptly got three straight hits against him, cutting the deficit to 2-1 and resulting in King taking over. King promptly allowed a two-run triple to Jordan Westburg that was also the product of bad defense, and Baltimore took a 3-2 lead in a game they would win 6-3. A blowout win for the Orioles the next day resulted in a series split and a bitter taste in NY’s mouth.
A particularly terrible bullpen performance came on July 9 against the Chicago Cubs, although another poor defensive play started the implosion. After splitting the first two games of a three-game set, the Yankees nursed a 4-1 lead into the seventh inning and were seemingly in cruise control. However, Boone chose to take out Domingo German on a low pitch count after giving up a leadoff walk, replacing him with Hamilton.
After getting the first out, Hamilton allowed a single before inducing a tailor-made double play ball that was booted by Gleyber Torres, loading the bases. Kahnle then entered but failed to strand any of the inherited runners; he traded a run for an out but then allowed a two-run, pinch-hit single to Yan Gomes that tied the game.
Marinaccio and Holmes did the rest in the eighth; Marinaccio loaded the bases with nobody out by allowing a single and two walks. Holmes entered to clean up the mess, but instead allowed a go-ahead sacrifice fly and allowed another run to score on a wild pitch. The Cubs eventually won 7-4 to take the series, leaving the Yankees frustrated as they entered the All-Star break.
But the worst loss of all came on Sunday against the Colorado Rockies, in the finale of a three-game set. With a 3-1 lead in the bottom of the eighth, Kahnle and his microscopic 0.55 ERA entered the game. He surprisingly fell apart and loaded the bases by allowing a walk and two singles, and Boone gave the ball to Holmes. Needing just one out to get out of the jam, Holmes instead allowed a grand slam to C.J. Cron that gave the Rockies a 5-3 lead.
The Yankees fought back to tie the game in the ninth and eventually took a 7-5 lead in the 11th inning, but Ramirez, looking for his first career save, immediately allowed a game-tying, two-run home run to Nolan Jones. He retired the next two batters, but Marinaccio then entered and immediately lost his composure, resulting in a walk-off home run to Alan Trejo, who hadn’t hit a single homer all year until then. The Rockies’ 8-7 win allowed them to take two of three; the Yankees still have yet to win a series in July.
These embarrassing losses, coupled with a still-struggling and inconsistent lineup have contributed to the team falling into last place in the AL East. New York is currently on the outside looking in for a playoff spot.
What's Going on With The New York Yankees' Bullpen? The bullpen, which has kept the Yankees in contention early on, is showing significant wear and tear. - ( New Window )
The absolute most important step for this franchise direction for the next five+ years is what this franchise has been historically horrific at doing. Self evaluation.
It is make or break that they get it, at the right time, which of the kids will make it or not.
The kids break out - they can spend like gang busters the next five years. They keep the wrong ones (ie Dom), they blow it.
How often have the Dodgers regretted trading a kid? They seem to always get it right somehow.
I am a big fan of his, and I would not give him away but I'd trade Pete Alonso if I got a good offer.
2021 Tyler O'Neill sure, I'd make a call, 2022 or 2023 pass unless they're giving him away.
total luxury tax penalties paid by yankees since system started (2002):
first 15 years (02-17) paid on average $20m penalties per year.
under Hal they have reset under lux tax twice and averaged less than $10m per year in penalties.
2023 = official reports arent out yet but based on spotrac i think they went over by $40m, at a 30% rate (2nd year over) which would = 12m in penalties.
if they did go over by almost exactly +40m, they spent right up to the tier where they would have had to start paying the more regressive 42.5% surcharge, which is still 1 level below the cohen tax - i bolded the tier where they paused ahead of more serious penalties.
First year: 20 percent tax on all overages
Second consecutive year: 30 percent
Third consecutive year or more: 50 percent
If a club dips below the luxury tax threshold for a season, the penalty level is reset. So, a club that exceeds the threshold for two straight seasons but then drops below that level would be back at 20 percent the next time it exceeds the threshold.
There’s also a surcharge threshold for clubs that exceed the base threshold by $20 million or more.
$20 million to $40 million: 12 percent surcharge
$40 million to $60 million: 42.5 percent surcharge for first year; 45 percent for each consecutive year after that
$60 million or more: 60 percent surcharge
so some rough math on 2024 (may not be exactly right, first time ive calculated lux tax forward this way):
they are going into a 3rd year offender which = 50% base rate on any spending beyond 2024 threshold = 237m
so let's say they go to $310m (+73m), here's some rough math:
50% rate for 3rd year offender = $36.5m
12% surcharge between +20-40m = $2.4m
42.5% surcharge between +40-60m = $8.5m
60% surcharge on final + 13m = $8.3m (cohen tax level)
total 2024 luxury tax penalties = 55.7m
previous franchise single season high 2005 = 34m
total luxury tax last 5 years since 2018 combined = 53m
and the $310m may be light if they do get both yamamoto and soto. if they go to $320m, that estimate jumps the penalties to 66m.
and that is just estimating based on on-field payroll (not lux tax payroll which is a different calculation that includes more stuff i didn't include). i dont know where final met payroll ended up but at $340m on field, cohen is projected to have more than $100m in penalties from last year.
New York Yankees luxury tax payments from 2003 to 2022 - ( New Window )
I am a big fan of his, and I would not give him away but I'd trade Pete Alonso if I got a good offer.
tbf betts was saying all the same stuff soto is saying now, then covid hit and he was extended by july 2020. so kind of a unique situation.
if the right offer came in for alonso id trade him but i very much doubt they get that offer. the yankees dont want to give up thorpe or king for soto, would you consider either by themselves a good enough return for alonso? i dont think i would and im not even sure alonso would return a player on that level straight up.
yes 100% fair but remember 2 things:
1. if they are at $310m before spending in bullpen, +10m more spent in BP is also another $11m on top of that in lux tax
2. if they trade for soto, it is likely they have to replace more than 1 of king/brito/schmidt/vazquez
so if adding yamamoto/soto already takes them over $300m, they are then also in the position of needing to continue spending beyond that probably closer to $320m for total payroll just to get the pen back into the "ok and hopefully improves to good/decent" category.
Tylor Megill
David Peterson
Tylor Megill
David Peterson
this is why it's almost impossible for me to believe they won't sign 1 of yamamoto, montgomery, snell.
they cant plan to just go 1-2 years at a time x 5-6 slots in the rotation for the next several offseasons. that is an impossible burden on getting decisions right.
@MarinoMLB
·
15m
Sources tell me that no decision has been made as of 12:30PM on the Erick Fedde front. Mets in as others have reported. Some thinking today could be decision day with other pitchers of his caliber trying to find a landing spot.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
9m
Also active today in regards to OF. Both trade and FA market. Not impossible we see movement on either or both fronts. Like
@Feinsand
has reported, CWS in on Fedde.
Quote:
Sure as hell sounds like Tyler O'Neill is going to be moved. As many of noted, the Mets and Cardinals probably don't match up too well (Cardinals looking for young pitching) but I'm sure Stearns will make the call #Mets
2021 Tyler O'Neill sure, I'd make a call, 2022 or 2023 pass unless they're giving him away.
Still had a 99 wRC+ in 2022, 1.2 fWAR over 383 ab's 14 homers/14 steals and is a good defensive OFer. Can't stay healthy, that's his biggest issue. I'd be intrigued.
Quote:
trade kids for 26 year old Mookie Betts and extended him within months, they don't trade kids for Javier Baez rentals. Do they?
I am a big fan of his, and I would not give him away but I'd trade Pete Alonso if I got a good offer.
tbf betts was saying all the same stuff soto is saying now, then covid hit and he was extended by july 2020. so kind of a unique situation.
if the right offer came in for alonso id trade him but i very much doubt they get that offer. the yankees dont want to give up thorpe or king for soto, would you consider either by themselves a good enough return for alonso? i dont think i would and im not even sure alonso would return a player on that level straight up.
Soto is also looking at a 400M-500M contract on top of the prospects.
Alonso (IMO) more in the 200M-300M range (tops).
but, our each example of a good offer probably varies.
The Mets need to make a decision on Alonso before this time next year basically. and it's either pay him that 200M-300M or take what they can get for him.
that's realistically probably the best level of return the mets can hope for.
that's realistically probably the best level of return the mets can hope for.
not sure, I don't know the prospects that well, but it depends on if the Mets are legit contenders in 2024 IMO.
If they are (so if they get Yamamoto, Montgomery, add BP help) I'm not trading Alonso. I'm all in on 2024 and they're better in 2024 with him (probably).
if they miss Yamamoto and most of the other big name FA adds then it would probably make me pivot to best offer for Alonso.
@JonHeyman
Red Sox stepping up efforts on free agent RHP Seth Lugo. Four or five others, including Braves, interested.
Quote:
and offered you either of Thorpe or King as main piece plus some other unimportant spare parts, is that a deal you do?
that's realistically probably the best level of return the mets can hope for.
not sure, I don't know the prospects that well, but it depends on if the Mets are legit contenders in 2024 IMO.
If they are (so if they get Yamamoto, Montgomery, add BP help) I'm not trading Alonso. I'm all in on 2024 and they're better in 2024 with him (probably).
if they miss Yamamoto and most of the other big name FA adds then it would probably make me pivot to best offer for Alonso.
king is their 29 year old version of peterson/megill except better. pitched out of the BP most of last year, made 9 starts and looked good so they think he has upside. steamer projects him to be worth 2 fwar next year going 9-9 with a 3.85 era.
thorpe was picked about 10 picks after blade tidwell in the 2nd round of the 2022 draft. he's 6 months older, both are at AA. thorpe was more successful and supposedly has a great change up but he only has a low-90's FB so there are some questions on his upside. BA ranked him 7th in yankee system yesterday, BP is higher on him having him in their top 50-100 range. law is more like BA and appears not that high on him.
negotiating 101 but the nyy have been pumping that they dont want to trade either of them in a deal for soto and that the ask for both (plus a bunch of other lesser pieces) was a non-starter. i suspect if they get soto they will have relented on that bc soto is a 25 year old future HOFer but alonso isn't that so im not sure he'd even bring back 1 piece on that level.
unless the mets buy that someone like king is about to become the next jordan montgomery but with a bunch of years of control and help the 2024 team + beyond, id sooner just wait until the deadline because you will have a better read on prospects tracking positive or negative. as a rental alonso should still bring back a fringe top 100 type prospect and there will be new teams looking to make a run with new prospects who have emerged (like thorpe did last year and ben brown the year before).
the nimmo route of letting alonso test FA and match the best offer seems like the best path to me if they dont get the price they want in trade, worst case they get an extra $750k or so of bonus pool money to go above slot somewhere to draft another tidwell/thorpe in 2025 when stearns FO and their pitching lab is more developed.
Most of us are Knicks fans who don't remember '85.. lotteries are not fun.
But it changes my approach.
I'd even consider trying to reset - to the extent possible - and get under the luxury tax and create a new plan.
the Mets don't have the pitching prospects, don't have the young pitchers at the major league level. Don't have much bullpen depth, and the lineup has holes.
Not saying there is nothing salvageable but my model to compete is quality and quantity approach to starting pitching (5 #2/3's is better than an ace and 4 4's, or even two old aces and a bunch of 4/5/6's like last year) if you know what I mean), elite bullpen and top notch defense. - like the SF Giants WS teams.
I don't see how the Mets get there. Even Yamamoto wasn't a given - sure he'd help, but there is a lot of work even if the Mets do somehow wind up with him.
This is why my gut has been telling me we don't do anything, while of course hoping or a Soto or Ohtani surprise.
@JonHeyman
Luis Severino, Mets
$13,000,000/1 year
Plus: $500,000 for 27gs
$750,000 each for 29gs; 31gs.
@BNightengale
Yankees manager Aaron Boone expects to meet with Yamomoto during the recruiting process, saying he’d look good in Yankee pinstripes as a ‘pretty special frontline starter.’
@JonHeyman
Luis Severino, Mets
$13,000,000/1 year
Plus: $500,000 for 27gs
$750,000 each for 29gs; 31gs.
So, $13 million?
@BryanHoch
Aaron Boone said that he has met Yoshinobu Yamamoto once already and plans to meet him again soon. Said that Yamamoto would look great in pinstripes.
@BNightengale
Chicago Cubs outfielder Christopher Morel’s name has surfaced in talks with the Tampa Bay Rays about starter Tyler Glasnow
@ByMcCullough
The Dodgers met with Shohei Ohtani at Dodger Stadium “a couple days ago,” Dave Roberts said. Roberts said the meeting went well.
@jonmorosi
Free agent RHP Lucas Giolito, 29, is drawing interest from the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, and Royals.
The Yamamoto and Ohtani markets could impact Giolito's destination. He posted a 4.88 ERA this year while tying for a league-best 33 GS.
@MLBNetwork
@ChrisCotillo
Alex Cora: "I called Aaron Boone yesterday, FaceTimed him, and he gave me this kinda-like smile, this look. He was very happy. So something big might happen over there."
@ChrisCotillo
Alex Cora: "I called Aaron Boone yesterday, FaceTimed him, and he gave me this kinda-like smile, this look. He was very happy. So something big might happen over there."
unrelated to the actual message and while this is perfect portrait of how things in baseball are today with players chatting up it up on the base paths and glad handing throughout the game, as someone who grew up in the late 70's early 80's to a diehard Yankees father in an extended family split between the Red Sox and Yankees I much prefer the days when the Red Sox manager and Yankees manager hated each other and weren't face time buddies.
this sucks for a lot of reasons.
@BNightengale
Chicago Cubs outfielder Christopher Morel’s name has surfaced in talks with the Tampa Bay Rays about starter Tyler Glasnow
I'm starting to get a hunch that the Cubs might possibly be interested in moving Morel this offseason.
@ChrisCotillo
Alex Cora: "I called Aaron Boone yesterday, FaceTimed him, and he gave me this kinda-like smile, this look. He was very happy. So something big might happen over there."
….Or he had some chick below his desk tending to some important business…
He's a young 34!
Quote:
Another ML signing, and it's not even February yet?
He's a young 34!
They probably thought they signed Raisel
-26 DRS 2021+2022, wow
Funny you say that, almost nobody on twitter thinks he's legit at all and said he just compiles other stuff he's read. Read the comments on most of his threads.
Wendle is best known for his four-year tenure with the Rays, where he thrice eclipsed 500 plate appearances and 3 WAR (or a pro-rated 2020 equivalent) despite never locking down a single position. Instead, he rotated between second, third, and shortstop, primarily manning the keystone early on, then seamlessly shifting the bulk of his starts to third base when Brandon Lowe had a fully healthy season at second. When he hit at an above-average clip, he did so without much pop or plate discipline, putting bat on ball and consistently placing line drives into the outfield. He maximized his productivity given his lack of raw power or lift in his swing, but it relied on his plus speed and bat control, which couldn’t last forever.
Wendle broke into the majors late, playing his first full season for the Rays at age 28. Despite entering free agency for the first time, 2024 will represent his age-34 season. As a result, he’s lost a step over the years, evident in his declining defensive and baserunning value. He took extra bases on hits less frequently than before, and last season was his first as a below-average defender by RAA. His line-drive rate went from great with the Rays to below-average with the Marlins, and hitting the ball on the ground over half the time isn’t effective for someone who doesn’t have the foot speed to leg out infield hits. The warning signs were there in his age-31 season in 2021, so it’s unsurprising Tampa traded him that offseason, (correctly) anticipating a future decline. Wendle was never great with the Marlins, but his production completely fell apart during the last couple months of his tenure there, with a -6 wRC+ over the last two months of the year.
Quote:
i think other than martino, marino is the best connected with mets right now. he mentioned on a podcast he got his start in part having some connections to an ownership group (didnt say which one) but he's a met fan, and based on the speed with which he became a reliable source it would make sense.
Funny you say that, almost nobody on twitter thinks he's legit at all and said he just compiles other stuff he's read. Read the comments on most of his threads.
interesting im like 99% sure ive seen him break even more stuff first than mayer in the last couple years, but ill track it closer going forward. he's a college kid so who knows maybe he is just lightning fast at aggregating from audio interviews or something?
im pretty sure he is legit.
https://x.com/MarinoMLB/status/1730583624154505707?s=20 - ( New Window )
@SNYtv
"I do think you can put together a very competitive and solid pitching staff in a variety of different ways."
David Stearns was asked if he feels the Mets need to add a frontline starting pitcher to have a successful offseason:
@MarinoMLB
·
Mystery team blowing up…perhaps bad verbiage. Just saying there may be a team out there that we don’t know about. Dodgers, Blue Jays, Angels and Giants are in. I know that for fact. Unclear if there’s anyone else quietly lurking.
him having pretty good ohtani intel would kind of line up with being sourced somewhere in proximity of mets since it's not a player they are in on right now.
@SNYtv
"I do think you can put together a very competitive and solid pitching staff in a variety of different ways."
David Stearns was asked if he feels the Mets need to add a frontline starting pitcher to have a successful offseason:
is there a link?
He noted yesterday he doesn't see Vientos platooning with Baty if Baty wins the 3b job.
Quote:
SNY
@SNYtv
"I do think you can put together a very competitive and solid pitching staff in a variety of different ways."
David Stearns was asked if he feels the Mets need to add a frontline starting pitcher to have a successful offseason:
is there a link?
SNY is tweeting out clips (linked)
Link - ( New Window )
@BNightengale
Dodgers GM Brandon Gomes said he was surprised by manager Dave Roberts’ candidness about Shohei Ohtani and their private meeting.
He steadfastly refuses to talk about their pursuit.
have they televised before? just curious if it's like a 15 minute lottery or excessively drawn out.
Quote:
10 minutes away
have they televised before? just curious if it's like a 15 minute lottery or excessively drawn out.
I honestly can't remember what they did last year
Quote:
10 minutes away
have they televised before? just curious if it's like a 15 minute lottery or excessively drawn out.
They televised last year but don't remember if it was dragged out.
Link - ( New Window )
I know nothing about draft prospects
I know nothing about draft prospects
Weak at the top of the draft. No clear 1/1 this year
(ignore the teams this is last year's slot values, which will go up by the delta's should remain the same)
were they to sign Snell, they just recouped most of that penalty.
(ignore the teams this is last year's slot values, which will go up by the delta's should remain the same)
were they to sign Snell, they just recouped most of that penalty.
Nope. They are picking 19th.
wait what? did they make a mistake?
@TimBritton
·
9s
Once the first three teams announced were postseason teams, it meant the Mets, Padres and Yankees had all dropped 10 spots.
guess they dont need to re-write any new cohen rules.
You aren't the only one. I was so pumped thinking they had a top-2 pick
so i think a QO free agent will cost them:
rd 2 1.8m (last year r2p9 was pick #48)
rd 5 430k (last year r5p9 was pick #140)
+1m IFA
so a $3.2m penalty.
Quote:
don't understand how this works
You aren't the only one. I was so pumped thinking they had a top-2 pick
same - they also had the met logo illuminated on the side. just a shitty broadcast. probably intentional to f w/ cohen.
Quote:
In comment 16314400 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
don't understand how this works
You aren't the only one. I was so pumped thinking they had a top-2 pick
same - they also had the met logo illuminated on the side. just a shitty broadcast. probably intentional to f w/ cohen.
MLB is a joke. Disgraceful.
if they miss on yamamoto, id pivot big to snell.
snell/senga is a quality 1-2 both entering a31's. snell just won cy and senga was 7th.
i wouldnt complain if they did something like montgomery + giolito, those are some reliable innings, but snell has a career 3.2 era. montgomery's career year was just 3.2. snells career fip 3.44. montgomery's career year 3.56. 1 guy you are hoping the career year was the breakout, the other is pretty reliably that good just not super reliable from a durability standpoint.
Quote:
In comment 16314400 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
don't understand how this works
You aren't the only one. I was so pumped thinking they had a top-2 pick
same - they also had the met logo illuminated on the side. just a shitty broadcast. probably intentional to f w/ cohen.
I was watching and that was a really really terrible broadcast. I figured there was no way Mets and Yankees were top 2 possibilities so figured we had to be dropped those 10 spots. They should not have kept us illuminated like that.
Quote:
In comment 16314400 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
don't understand how this works
You aren't the only one. I was so pumped thinking they had a top-2 pick
same - they also had the met logo illuminated on the side. just a shitty broadcast. probably intentional to f w/ cohen.
Terrible Broadcast. That chart with the Met logo on the side was the worst graphic I've ever seen on TV -- it looked to me like the Mets were still in the running for a top 2 pick !!
And they kept cutting away to show Brad Paisley pulling cards out of his ass......you couldn't really get a clear view of that awful graphic.
Mets reportedly would not guarantee him a rotation spot
Quote:
To white Sox 2 for 15 (7.5 per)
Mets reportedly would not guarantee him a rotation spot
So that's actually good news.
Onward
@JeffPassan
·
7m
BREAKING: The New York Yankees are acquiring outfielder Alex Verdugo in a trade with the Boston Red Sox for right-handeres Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
if soto and judge are your every day corners and stanton DH does verdugo on a 1 year make sense?
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Yankees are still in on Juan Soto, per sources.
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
4m
Sources tell me the Mets were one of the 3+ teams involved late in trade talks for now formerly Red Sox OF Alex Verdugo. Verdugo instead goes from Boston to Yanks. Sources also told me this move does NOT impact the Yankees pursuit of Juan Soto, which is said to be ongoing.
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
4m
Juan Soto (or Cody Bellinger) still in play for Yankees even after Verdugo deal. If it’s Soto, Judge presumably plays CF
no he is 1 year from free agency and due to make $9m in arb.
if that was the price id have preferred one of the FA.
Fitts doesn't completely trust his fading mid-80s changeup, which shows promise but also needs more work. He has a sound arm action and a delivery that he repeats well, allowing him to pound the strike zone and rank sixth in the Minors last year in walk rate (1.6 per nine innings). The next step toward becoming a possible mid-rotation starter will be refining his command because he's hittable when he doesn't locate his pitches well.
Fitts doesn't completely trust his fading mid-80s changeup, which shows promise but also needs more work. He has a sound arm action and a delivery that he repeats well, allowing him to pound the strike zone and rank sixth in the Minors last year in walk rate (1.6 per nine innings). The next step toward becoming a possible mid-rotation starter will be refining his command because he's hittable when he doesn't locate his pitches well.
an overslot 6th round pick (183rd pick) in 2021 (vasil went 50 picks later at 232nd and got half as much $).
now pick up a phone and swoop in on soto pls. if we are entertaining any prospect with a pulse for verdugo as a rental we can make a call on soto.
https://x.com/SNYtv/status/1732210749261713759?s=20 - ( New Window )
@DannyAbriano
·
With Alex Verdugo added, Yankees’ projected 2024 CBT payroll, via Cot’s, is roughly $256M
Add in Juan Soto and they’re at $289M
That’s before doing anything else
If you add Yoshinobu Yamamoto on top of that, they’re around $320M
Could they do it? Sure. But I don’t see it
unless verdugo was someone the pads specifically wanted or the yankees are going full cohen, getting both seems unlikely.
Quite the resolution to get him.
Quote:
Signed Michael Tonkin.
Quite the resolution to get him.
WOW, that was some dad joke. But I'll admit, it cracked me up.
“ The biggest change the Mets are trying to institute in the minor leagues is a lack thereof at the top. Green is the fifth person to lead the player development department in the past five-plus years. As much as the manager and general manager roles have turned over, so has this one, from Ian Levin to Jared Banner to Kevin Howard to Jeremy Barnes back to Howard and now to Green.”
Made a nice play at 3B but also had a ball clang off his glove to end the game. So a mixed overall game
Link - ( New Window )
Unfortunately, II was told Crow’s elbow was worse than just standard TJ. The Mets are more concerned he never gets back to where he was than him being picked and kept.
Quote:
Crow is talked about as a possible loss. I am worried about Joander Suarez. Only 3 regular season starts at AA, but showed real well, and is almost 24.
Unfortunately, II was told Crow’s elbow was worse than just standard TJ. The Mets are more concerned he never gets back to where he was than him being picked and kept.
I figured when they got him. Seemed too good of a get for Escobar
Rangers RHP Anthony Hoopii-Tuionetoa.
Hoopii-Tuionetoa, 23, throws a fastball in the mid-to-high 90s and starred as a reliever in the Arizona Fall League.
rosenthal connects dodgers/burnes, that would be good too. maybe they dont want to spend ~1bn on 2 players.
There should be all kinds of reports, leaks and rumors about his free agency because it’s fun and that’s what fans want.
I saw Gelbs on the Mets podcast saying no one is expecting much of anything to happen at these meetings.
the players who get posted have the 45 day window. that's fine. and they do have a very different decision to make so i think that's an appropriate amount of time. maybe 30 days would be better and still enough.
ohtani going this long is his right, but stupid for everyone else. make a decision.
the only players who should still be available in january/feb are 1 year guys or players who are wildly out of step with the market.
the Mets are not the favorite for anyone they have been linked to - which is good and bad.
If they surprisingly get one of the big games (Yamamoto, Ohtani, Soto, etc.) it will be unexpected.
I don't even think they are favored to get Montgomery, Snell, E-Rod, etc.
I was half joking, and I know people on here hate him, but Bauer might be their best option if he checks out legally. I don't concern myself with "he's a POS" or "he's a douche" - this is sports not church and these people are not my role models or moral compasses - they have one skill I care about - they excel in a sport - and when they no longer excel in a sport I have no use for them.
“His ball, it tails but also rises — that’s very hard (to hit), especially at his arm angle, which is kind of a low three-quarter arm slot,” Minter said. “For him to get that much ride on his ball is pretty impressive.”
Tonkin was added to the Braves 40-man roster in November and made the Opening Day roster after an impressive spring coupled with a couple of pitching injuries elsewhere on the roster. So far, he’s making the most of his long-awaited return to the majors.
Entering Monday, only two of the 43 major-league relievers with five or more innings pitched had a WHIP as good or better than Tonkin’s — the Angels’ Andrew Wantz (0.20 in 5.0 innings) and the Mets’ John Curtiss (0.56 in 5 1/3 innings).
Michael Tonkin took a circuitous, worldwide journey back to the majors with the Braves - ( New Window )
the players who get posted have the 45 day window. that's fine. and they do have a very different decision to make so i think that's an appropriate amount of time. maybe 30 days would be better and still enough.
ohtani going this long is his right, but stupid for everyone else. make a decision.
the only players who should still be available in january/feb are 1 year guys or players who are wildly out of step with the market.
Definitely his right to take this long. I think this shroud of secrecy is a bit of a turn off. There are many millions of interested parties here called fans who like to follow reports on free agency activity. Perhaps if Ohtani’s process wasn’t so secretive some more teams would know better where they stand and they could get on with other business which seems like it would be better for everyone.
We all forget how boring and slow it was the year before that, and the year before that.
We just remember the highlights of a four month process as opposed to the minute by minute of while it's happening. Social media turned what used to be a day by day thing, into a second by second thing - making it feel longer and slower.
We all forget how boring and slow it was the year before that, and the year before that.
We just remember the highlights of a four month process as opposed to the minute by minute of while it's happening. Social media turned what used to be a day by day thing, into a second by second thing - making it feel longer and slower.
Not really. I mentioned 2 weeks ago how baseball has killed their off-season. I was told wait until the winter meetings. Well here we are and not much going on here either. The MLB off-season process to keep fans engaged has taken a bad turn in the last decade and getting worse not better. Yes ofc course we'll remember the signings when ST begins but people are starting to notice how bad this drags now.
I'm so glad the Mets won a few meaningless games against the Phillies and the Marlins last September.
Tank Commander, report to my office immediately !!
And it’s terrible for the fans and franchises for it to drag into ST, I agree.
But it’s been that way for how long now? It’s not new at all, unfortunately .
if the Mets miss on Yamamoto and the other names, maybe sit this one out, trade Alonso, get the Verlander and Scherzer money off the books and reset to get under the luxury tax.
Hope people like Marte come back (unlikely) and establish value and deal them. Even Diaz, if he's right he could get a haul, and then let Stearns build his team.
Or that all of the biggest cities in America are rumored to be in on the best two way player in the world, since Bo Jackson. Or Babe Ruth?
Or the most unknown famous pitcher in baseball is rumored to go to all the top teams in the sport?
I thinks that kind iconic, honestly. And if they all were done on day one, think about how boring December would be.
Not defending it, but if those three names and rumors are boring, I think expectations may be off 😂
if the Mets miss on Yamamoto and the other names, maybe sit this one out, trade Alonso, get the Verlander and Scherzer money off the books and reset to get under the luxury tax.
Hope people like Marte come back (unlikely) and establish value and deal them. Even Diaz, if he's right he could get a haul, and then let Stearns build his team.
I think you're right at that point. Let the young bats go through the full season so it's easier to determine which ones will be here for long haul. Get some of the young SP up as season goes on. Sucks for the vets but probably the best thing for the organization this season. Trading Alonso I still don't know. When you have the most money in the sport you shouldn't be trading one of the best power hitters.
We all forget how boring and slow it was the year before that, and the year before that.
We just remember the highlights of a four month process as opposed to the minute by minute of while it's happening. Social media turned what used to be a day by day thing, into a second by second thing - making it feel longer and slower.
there have been plenty of busts before but the last 2 offseasons were good ones:
nov/dec 2021 was great bc of the lockout deadline.
last year:
JDG was pre-WM on 12/2
JV was announced 12/7 on wed of WM
most of the relief market moved
Nimmo + Trea turner were day after 12/8
boegarts was a day after that
senga was reported right around the Wm
this year would have been fine if ohtani just announced before or during the WM. then a bunch of stuff would have happened.
And it’s terrible for the fans and franchises for it to drag into ST, I agree.
But it’s been that way for how long now? It’s not new at all, unfortunately .
it was that way when teams werent spending aggressively (remember the harper/machado offseason?) and the QO situation was more punative (1st rd pick for michael freaking cuddyers).
in the last few years teams have been spending aggressively, and judging by the number of teams beating down doors for ohtani and yamamoto, that's still the case.
Justin Dirden, OF, Astros
Dirden was one of the breakout performers of 2022, going from a nondrafted free agent in 2020 to one of the 10 best prospects in the Astros system in 2022. But he struggled to a .231/.314/.396 line over 84 games in extended Triple-A action in 2023. Injuries may have played a factor. He hit .276/.345/.489 with 24 extra-base hits over his 58 games until a hamstring injury sent him to the injured list on June 23. Dirden returned on July 16, but hit just .126/.243/.179 over 26 games before returning to the IL on Aug. 30. While we don’t know how much the hamstring injury hampered Dirden, he clearly was not the same player upon returning. Dirden is an above-average athlete with the ability to play all three outfield positions. Prior to his injury Dirden was a .288/.380/.536 hitter with 48 home runs over 265 games.
Or that all of the biggest cities in America are rumored to be in on the best two way player in the world, since Bo Jackson. Or Babe Ruth?
Or the most unknown famous pitcher in baseball is rumored to go to all the top teams in the sport?
I thinks that kind iconic, honestly. And if they all were done on day one, think about how boring December would be.
Not defending it, but if those three names and rumors are boring, I think expectations may be off 😂
the boring aspect is that 0 multi-year agreements have been announced during the WM.
not an exaggeration gray was 5 days ago, nola extended where he was weeks ago before tg, lopez went to atlanta weeks ago before tg, gray signed right around tg, maeda/severino signed right before WM, pagan signed 1 week ago.
As far as more expensive pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and Blake Snell, the Mets are saying in meetings that they would likely only go in that direction if they miss on Yamamoto. That is why, for example, they’ve had absolutely no interest in signing Rodriguez prior to or at the meetings.
Stearns and his staff are also busy looking for a strong defender in the outfield, who could provide insurance for Starling Marte’s health, push Brandon Nimmo to a corner position at times, and help with run prevention by catching the baseball. Michael A. Taylor is believed to be a top target, ahead of Harrison Bader, who might also come into play.
Mets would pursue frontline starter if they miss out on top target Yoshinobu Yamamoto The Mets are intensely focused on Yamamoto - ( New Window )
Quote:
The Mets are intensely focused on Yamamoto, but have stiff competition from many other clubs, including the Yankees, who seem to like their chances. The Mets are also continuing to pursue rotation depth in the vein of the Luis Severino signing.
As far as more expensive pitchers like Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodriguez and Blake Snell, the Mets are saying in meetings that they would likely only go in that direction if they miss on Yamamoto. That is why, for example, they’ve had absolutely no interest in signing Rodriguez prior to or at the meetings.
Stearns and his staff are also busy looking for a strong defender in the outfield, who could provide insurance for Starling Marte’s health, push Brandon Nimmo to a corner position at times, and help with run prevention by catching the baseball. Michael A. Taylor is believed to be a top target, ahead of Harrison Bader, who might also come into play.
Mets would pursue frontline starter if they miss out on top target Yoshinobu Yamamoto The Mets are intensely focused on Yamamoto - ( New Window )
Looks like Mets aren't in on Bellinger then? I think he'd be a good fit. Lengthen the lineup and play solid OF defense.
@JonHeyman
Marlins are at least listening to trade talk on their fine stash of young starting pitchers, That presumably includes Luzardo, Garrett and Cabrera (and more)
@JonHeyman
Marlins are at least listening to trade talk on their fine stash of young starting pitchers, That presumably includes Luzardo, Garrett and Cabrera (and more)
Said it all last year and will this year. Mets match up well with them in a trade. Mets have excess in young hitting prospects and the Marlins lack there. Meanwhile, the Marlins are flush with young pitching.
@JonHeyman
Marlins are at least listening to trade talk on their fine stash of young starting pitchers, That presumably includes Luzardo, Garrett and Cabrera (and more)
This is interesting, no?
After a command-plagued season in 2022, Slaten straightened out his strike-throwing in 2023. He cut his walk rate from 19.5% in 2022 to 8.5% in 2023. The improved control resulted in much better results at Double-A Frisco and a late-season promotion to Triple-A. Slaten is a pure reliever who mixes four pitches with plenty of power across his arsenal. Slaten sits 95-97 mph on his four-seamer with ride and at times cut. He pairs his four-seam primarily with a mid-80s sweeping slider that generates heavy rates of swings and misses in and out of the zone. His cutter is his third pitch, but is an effective weapon as a bridge between his fastball and slider. The cutter sits 89-91 mph with true cutter shape. He’ll infrequently mix in a low-80s two-plane curveball. With the strike-throwing improvements, upper-level minors experience and major league quality stuff, Slaten could be a worthy choice. "
6
Left-hander MacKenzie Gore, San Diego’s preseason No. 4 prospect
Outfielder Robert Hassell III, the Friars’ top prospect at the time of the trade/No. 21 overall prospect
Outfielder James Wood, the Padres’ No. 3 prospect/No. 88 overall prospect
Right-hander Jarlin Susana, San Diego’s No. 14 prospect
Major League first baseman/designated hitter Luke Voit
even though he'd lost some luster, abrams was the main headliner, and rightfully that's 1 obvious piece that was hard to get in a rental deal. he was a 21 year old ready for MLB and had the top prospect pedigree. the yankees were able to keep dominguez here.
while the upside is still there, at the moment it is at best 50-50 who the more valuable pitcher is between gore and king. gore presently has 2 extra years of control over king right now, and steamer projects them both at 2 wins next year. but pretty decent job by the pads to at least match 1 key piece of the deal (and who knows, maybe King ends up the better pitcher, gores xera the last 2 years is over 5).
so that brings us to hassell/wood. wood is the nats current #1 prospect on FG. 20 years old in AA comps to adam dunn. hassell is their #7 prospect 21 years old in AA. comp'ing pitchers to hitters is always dicey but it seems like there might be some people on either side of choosing between thorpe/hassell.
i assume all of the spare parts of the deal with net out susana/voit, and probably even tilt in the pads direction.
so net/net for 1.5 years (and about 7 fwar) of soto, including 1 deep playoff run, the padres gave up abrams and wood while reclaiming value comparable to gore/hassell/other pieces.
I do not like the sound of that
Mark Feinsand
@Feinsand
·
1h
While a trade of Juan Soto is appearing very likely, a source said that Jake Cronenworth is also a potential trade possibility for the Padres.
Quote:
Mets unlikely to trade much trade capital for any player not under contract beyond 2024 unless something "falls into their laps".
I do not like the sound of that
sort of contradicts the verdugo rumors though doesn't it?
mets plans seem to be pretty close to the vest beyond 'all in' on yamamoto.
Quote:
In comment 16314863 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Mets unlikely to trade much trade capital for any player not under contract beyond 2024 unless something "falls into their laps".
I do not like the sound of that
sort of contradicts the verdugo rumors though doesn't it?
mets plans seem to be pretty close to the vest beyond 'all in' on yamamoto.
#1 nobody else reported this but Marino
#2 No not really. They didn't give up much at all for Verdugo.
Right-hander Richard Fitts had success in Double A this year, but he’s 91-96 mph without much life and has a below-average slider and changeup. He does throw a ton of strikes and commands the fastball reasonably well, so his results were above his pure stuff. I see the 22 homers allowed in 152 2/3 innings as a harbinger of more hard contact as he moves up the ladder. Right-hander Nicholas Judice was the Yankees’ eighth-round pick in 2023, a senior reliever at Louisiana-Monroe who’s mostly 91-93 mph with some ride to the four-seamer, a fringy slider, and a 40 changeup. He’s an org guy at this point, with a big vulnerability to left-handed batters. This is organizational pitching depth at best, and the main value to Boston comes from shedding Verdugo’s salary and his feeble bat against lefties.
So no, I don't think even if they did check in on Verdugo, that's counter to not giving up much for rentals. They bid LESS than what looks like a mediocre overall package.
Quote:
In comment 16314863 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Mets unlikely to trade much trade capital for any player not under contract beyond 2024 unless something "falls into their laps".
I do not like the sound of that
sort of contradicts the verdugo rumors though doesn't it?
mets plans seem to be pretty close to the vest beyond 'all in' on yamamoto.
I'm referring to current players on the roster.
I can't get a damn thing from ANYONE on it, but I know there was a massive push last week. No clue how they felt it went, zero, nada.
Quote:
In comment 16314897 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 16314863 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Mets unlikely to trade much trade capital for any player not under contract beyond 2024 unless something "falls into their laps".
I do not like the sound of that
sort of contradicts the verdugo rumors though doesn't it?
mets plans seem to be pretty close to the vest beyond 'all in' on yamamoto.
I'm referring to current players on the roster.
I can't get a damn thing from ANYONE on it, but I know there was a massive push last week. No clue how they felt it went, zero, nada.
you mean push to extend current players or trade?
@CarlosACollazo
The shortened 2020 draft is having an impact on a Rule 5 class that is perceived as down this year:
certainly seems that way but the math is the math. if they take on more $ than soto in the SD trade (whether that's grisham or cronenworth) im skeptical they spend that much. and they have very few paths to offloading $.
you mean push to extend current players or trade?
Want to know if they can resign him
The Padres like Thorpe, but there is not as much unanimity within their group about the righty and if he has enough fastball to thrive in the majors. King is due to be a free agent after the 2025 season and has had arm problems in the past. But the righty has been a dominant hybrid reliever and ended last season as a standout starter.
@WillSammon
Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan last week to meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, league sources told @TheAthletic
.
Quote:
you mean push to extend current players or trade?
Want to know if they can resign him
got it what you mentioned earlier.
@WillSammon
Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan last week to meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, league sources told @TheAthletic
.
Well respect that Cohen is at least trying here. Seems like Mets are all-in on him.
What's the max bid you guys would be okay with for Yamamoto? Seems like 10yr/$300M is expected now. How much higher can it go?
@WillSammon
Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan last week to meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, league sources told @TheAthletic
.
"leaving in 10 for airport alex, just finishing packing up the car"
Quote:
Will Sammon
@WillSammon
Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan last week to meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, league sources told @TheAthletic
.
Well respect that Cohen is at least trying here. Seems like Mets are all-in on him.
What's the max bid you guys would be okay with for Yamamoto? Seems like 10yr/$300M is expected now. How much higher can it go?
blevins predicted yesterday he may get more than cole (9x324m) which would be biggest P contract in mlb history. and posting fee on top.
Yamamoto, the 25-year-old star pitcher from Japan, is a major target of the Mets, among others.
For the past three seasons in Nippon Professional Baseball, Yamamoto has captured what Japan calls the quadruple crown by leading the league in wins, winning percentage, ERA and strikeouts. In 171 innings last season, he went 17-6 with a 1.17 ERA, 176 strikeouts and 28 walks.
Yamamoto is expected to come to the United States this weekend, The Athletic confirmed through league sources.
This story will be updated.
$300m is already a projected luxury tax bill of
50% rate on $63m for 3rd year offender = $31.5m
12% surcharge between +20-40m = $2.4m
42.5% surcharge between +40-60m = $8.5m
60% surcharge on final 3m = $1.8m (cohen tax level)
total tax penalties pre-yamamoto = ~44m (close to what nyy paid last 5 years combined)
yamamoto cost beyond that:
$33m salary (+ posting fee)
$16.5m base 50% tax
$19.8m cohen tax (60% surcharge)
so yamamoto alone practically doubles their tax bill.
if yankees get soto im still far more worried about LAD than NYY, even if LAD get ohtani (though if they get ohtani im slightly less worried).
@JackCurryYES
With the expectation that King and Thorpe would be included in a Soto trade, my hunch is that means Schmidt and Hampton won’t be moved. Could see Brito and Vasquez being dealt. Since Padres could use a catcher, perhaps Yankees move one of their catchers as part of deal, too.
if the yankees dont eat any extra $, or even dump some money back on the pads, that would be notable re yamamoto.
king arb is estimated at $3.1m.
higashioka arb is estimated at $2.2m.
Brito and Vasquez are pre-arb.
Bruce Levine
@MLBBruceLevine
The asking price for Sox pitcher Dylan Cease is very high ,and should be for two yrs control and $8 mil-contract.The Reds were asked for 4 top prospects including RHP Rhett Lowder and RHP Chase Petty. #9 and #11 position prospects as well.Sox will get more as market shakes out.
imanaga too. forgetting the extreme yamamoto hype, feels like he's being discussed a lot less than senga last year.
Ben Spanier
@b_span2
yeah the Soto return is going to be stronger than I thought it would be. whether it will seem like a lot to the “man on the street,” idk
Quote:
surprised how little mention there has been of Yuki Matsui, only 28 years old, not sure he's an MLB setup man but he was dominant in Japan.
imanaga too. forgetting the extreme yamamoto hype, feels like he's being discussed a lot less than senga last year.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
LHP Shota Imanaga has reportedly received multi-year offers from 10 MLB teams, some reaching close to $100M in total value.
Ben Spanier
@b_span2
yeah the Soto return is going to be stronger than I thought it would be. whether it will seem like a lot to the “man on the street,” idk
im sort of coming around to that, especially if SD can get yankees to eat cronenworth or grisham i think it's probably a solid double, but i think the upside of the package is really capped too. kings best baseline is probably 2 years of seth lugo. both flex pitchers with some prior injury risks.
thorpe's lack of velocity probably makes him unlikely to be a top of rotation starter even if the guys who like him are more right than the guys that dont.
the rp's and backup catchers are filler.
manoah + tiedemann would have been the home run if they could have gotten it. maybe even manoah + barriera + some other stuff.
if mets got creative i think they could have beaten it trading baty or mauricio to 3rd team for an mlb pitcher.
Quote:
In comment 16314966 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
surprised how little mention there has been of Yuki Matsui, only 28 years old, not sure he's an MLB setup man but he was dominant in Japan.
imanaga too. forgetting the extreme yamamoto hype, feels like he's being discussed a lot less than senga last year.
Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
LHP Shota Imanaga has reportedly received multi-year offers from 10 MLB teams, some reaching close to $100M in total value.
and how many times has his name come up in this thread or yankee thread relative to yamamoto?
last year i recall everyone talked about senga a ton even when verlander was in play.
In comment 16314546 DanMetroMan said:
so in the 3 day wm thread nobody has discussed him even 1x.
@SNYtv
·
"I spoke to David, we told him we're all ears"
Scott Boras on extension talks with Pete Alonso:
https://x.com/SNYtv/status/1732455158523556009?s=20 - ( New Window )
In comment 16314546 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
LHP Shota Imanaga has reportedly received multi-year offers from 10 MLB teams, some reaching close to $100M in total value.
so in the 3 day wm thread nobody has discussed him even 1x.
108 yamamoto mentions by contrast.
Quote:
which was your post of that same tweet yesterday.
In comment 16314546 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
LHP Shota Imanaga has reportedly received multi-year offers from 10 MLB teams, some reaching close to $100M in total value.
so in the 3 day wm thread nobody has discussed him even 1x.
108 yamamoto mentions by contrast.
If Yamamoto was available last off season, I would imagine Senga would have barely been mentioned as well.
"Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that were known to have scouted Imanaga in Yokohama over the summer
- Yankees
- Red Sox
- Blue Jays
- Rangers
- Phillies
- Mets
- Cubs
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Diamondbacks
- Giants
- Padres"
The original Hochi article is linked but I don't believe anybody on here speaks/reads Japanese
Link - ( New Window )
@timbhealey
The Mets announced righthanded reliever Michael Tonkin’s one-year contract.
Quote:
In comment 16314994 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
which was your post of that same tweet yesterday.
In comment 16314546 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
LHP Shota Imanaga has reportedly received multi-year offers from 10 MLB teams, some reaching close to $100M in total value.
so in the 3 day wm thread nobody has discussed him even 1x.
108 yamamoto mentions by contrast.
If Yamamoto was available last off season, I would imagine Senga would have barely been mentioned as well.
dont agree - verlander was available off a historic season and the mets got him at the highest AAV for a pitcher ever. and we still had time to discuss senga plenty.
we've all still discussed montgomery, e-rod, giolito, and snell even though the mets have probably been just as connected to imanaga as all of them.
Quote:
Pick do Mets have today
6
Colorado just opened a spot, Mets now pick 7th
"Yakyu Cosmopolitan
@yakyucosmo
Teams that were known to have scouted Imanaga in Yokohama over the summer
- Yankees
- Red Sox
- Blue Jays
- Rangers
- Phillies
- Mets
- Cubs
- Cardinals
- Reds
- Diamondbacks
- Giants
- Padres"
The original Hochi article is linked but I don't believe anybody on here speaks/reads Japanese Link - ( New Window )
where did i ever say anything to dispute that?
i said imanaga has been discussed less than senga was discussed last year (meaning by all of us). every projection had him getting paid more than senga weeks ago. i mentioned a week or so ago that LAD were in on him big so im fully aware that MLB teams are very much discussing him.
@TimBritton
It's a major-league deal worth $1M for Tonkin, according to a league source. He's actually still arb-eligible, so Mets could control him through 2026.
@TimBritton
It's a major-league deal worth $1M for Tonkin, according to a league source. He's actually still arb-eligible, so Mets could control him through 2026.
do they get any options to send him down or would it be waivers? $1m is insignificant either way just curious.
Quote:
In comment 16314887 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
Pick do Mets have today
6
Colorado just opened a spot, Mets now pick 7th
What does that even mean lol.. They decided they wanted a top 6 spot?
Quote:
In comment 16314887 JayBinQueens said:
Quote:
Pick do Mets have today
6
Colorado just opened a spot, Mets now pick 7th
. @mets will now be picking *8th* in today's rule 5 draft with the Royals making room as well.
The Yankees had a payroll in the low $290 millions last year -- second-highest in MLB after the Mets -- and are estimated to be at more than $250 million for 2024 without adding Soto or Yamamoto. Those two alone will cost at least $30 million each before accounting for any other acquisitions, and clubs like to set aside another $10-15 million for the trade deadline.
guess we'll find out whats real and whats not in the next week or so.
Sources: Yankees would raise payroll to accommodate both Juan Soto and Yoshinobu Yamamoto - ( New Window )
@JonHeyman
Things are already percolating with Korean CF Jung Hoo Lee. Padres are a possible landing spot, especially if they complete Soto trade to Yankees as exoected. There are others.
@jonmorosi
Market for free agent CF Michael A. Taylor is beginning to take shape.
Sources say the Reds, Red Sox and Blue Jays are among teams showing interest in the 2021 Gold Glove winner who’s coming off a career-best 21 HR.
@MLB
@MLBNetwork
ule 5 Draft
A favorite of some prospectheads, the Rule 5 Draft will take place Wednesday at 2 p.m. ET and will be streamed live on MLB.com.
Rule 5-eligible players -- ones signed at age 18 or younger with five seasons of pro experience or ones who signed 19 or older with four seasons of pro experience -- had to be placed on their organization’s 40-man rosters by the Nov. 14 deadline or else be left open for this process. The Rule 5 Draft allows buried Minor Leaguers to get Major League experience with a new club, but they have to stick in The Show for a full season to remain with their picking team.
@TimBritton
Tonkin's deal is a split contract. $1M in majors, $400K in minors.
Link - ( New Window )
@NYPost_Mets
David Stearns accompanied Steve Cohen to Japan last week to recruit Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Right now the situation is fluid whether Yamamoto will want a follow up with the Mets in New York before choosing a team.
@GeoffPontesBA
It’s Rule 5 Draft day which means we have another update to the Rule 5 Preview going live @BaseballAmerica
Important notes
- Justin Slaten is the name we’re hearing the most buzz around.
- Up to 48 total names & reports.
- My personal preference list for this year & more…
After a command-plagued season in 2022, Slaten straightened out his strike-throwing in 2023. He cut his walk rate from 19.5% in 2022 to 8.5% in 2023. The improved control resulted in much better results at Double-A Frisco and a late-season promotion to Triple-A. Slaten is a pure reliever who mixes four pitches with plenty of power across his arsenal. Slaten sits 95-97 mph on his four-seamer with ride and at times cut. He pairs his four-seam primarily with a mid-80s sweeping slider that generates heavy rates of swings and misses in and out of the zone. His cutter is his third pitch, but is an effective weapon as a bridge between his fastball and slider. The cutter sits 89-91 mph with true cutter shape. He’ll infrequently mix in a low-80s two-plane curveball. With the strike-throwing improvements, upper-level minors experience and major league quality stuff, Slaten could be a worthy choice.
Drafted: 3rd Round, 2019 from New Mexico (TEX)
Age 25.8 Height 6′ 4″ Weight 222 Bat / Thr R / R FV 40+
Tool Grades (Present/Future)
Fastball Slider Cutter Command Sits/Tops
65/65 70/70 45/50 40/40 94-97 / 98
The Rangers have finally moved Slaten to the bullpen and he’s carving. He isn’t throwing any harder than he was in 2022, but Slaten has taken to a single-inning, air-it-out approach and isn’t walking anyone. He’s sitting 94-97 with plus-plus carry, bending in his usual knee-buckling low-to-mid-80s slider, and he’s also added a cutter. Slaten’s delivery is violent and he has a high-maintenance frame, so his prospectdom is a little less stable than a premium on-mound athlete’s, but he has late-inning stuff and seems to have taken a step forward from a control standpoint. He could be in Texas’ big league bullpen by the end of the year and, if not, is almost certainly a post-season 40-man add who’ll debut next year.
One of the top performers in the organization over the past 2 seasons. AFL showcase might have contributed to getting him sniped
Quote:
Surprised they did not keep him
One of the top performers in the organization over the past 2 seasons. AFL showcase might have contributed to getting him sniped
2022+2023 Hardy was 2nd in the organization in FIP (2.58, trailing only Christian Scott) and 2nd in K/9 (trailing only Paul Gervase). It would not shock me to see him have an MLB career.. Colorado obviously complicates things #Mets
@MarinoMLB
·
1m
Don’t believe Mets are one of those teams. Have shown more interest in Jordan Montgomery, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and even Blake Snell.
Quote
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
5m
Free agent LHP Eduardo Rodriguez, who met with clubs at the Winter Meetings, is down to two teams and is expected to have a decision by tomorrow.
if Yamamoto in fact ends up something like 10 x $330m+
is one time AL CY and reigning NL CY Snell (mlbtr projection = 7x$200m) simply a better buy at $130m (+posting fee) less?
i know yamamoto covers more years theoretically within prime since he is 25, but i think it's highly circumspect to try to predict a 10 year productivity run for any pitcher. look no further than syndergaard, jdg, harvey, severino, lincecum, etc. Even predicting 5 years out may be pushing it.
even with yamamoto's projections going as high as they are ($33m per year) he's #1 for me if Snell is getting $200m (28.5m per year). a $4.5m discount a few years isnt nothing but it doesnt move any needles. 7 years still longer than comfortable for any pitcher.
but if Snell's market only allows something closer to Nola (say 7 years 175m) now all of sudden it's almost literally half price and an $8m or so annual discount (essentially 25% off each year for a CY winner). at that point i think it starts becoming a valid question.
and clemens projected 5x140m. so it's possible he's even less than half (though clemens also appears more than $100m low on yamamoto too).
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
5m
If the Soto deal goes through with the Yankees, the expectation is they also would receive Trent Grisham, with plans to use as 4th OF/late-game defense in CF.
Add Slaten, Donovan Antonia catcher, Alan Perdomo pitcher and trade for minor league RP Ryan Ammons
Add Slaten, Donovan Antonia catcher, Alan Perdomo pitcher and trade for minor league RP Ryan Ammons
I could be wrong, frequently am, but I dont think Antonia is a catcher
Add Slaten, Donovan Antonia catcher, Alan Perdomo pitcher and trade for minor league RP Ryan Ammons
ammons is weird, he was a below slot 10th round pick (50k bonus) who hasnt debuted yet bc he basically went straight to 60 day IL within a week.
Quote:
Hardy, Benito Garcia, Daison Acosta and Tyler Thomas
Add Slaten, Donovan Antonia catcher, Alan Perdomo pitcher and trade for minor league RP Ryan Ammons
I could be wrong, frequently am, but I dont think Antonia is a catcher
I’ve never even heard of him but that’s how BA had him listed
“ New York Mets — Donovan Antonia, C, Reds”
presumably tjs?
August 13, 2019
Cincinnati Reds signed free agent C Donovan Antonia to a minor league contract.
So he was signed as a C
so essentially sold the pick for ammons. presumably that means there was nobody they liked enough to pick? or they really like ammons?
Quote:
Mets traded Slaten for Ammons
so essentially sold the pick for ammons. presumably that means there was nobody they liked enough to pick? or they really like ammons?
Almost certainly the first one.
@timbhealey
David Stearns on his trip to Japan with Steve Cohen to meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto: “Long trip, quick stay.”
agree w/ that.
i think other than whichever top SP they get (moto, monty, snell) - we are likely to see them value hunt quality depth with a bunch of signings sort of like severino. 10-20m range, short term, low risk, good upside. same with BP.
i think id bet against more than 1 contract greater than 3 years this offseason. maybe 2 if they get imanaga too.
based on how he has operated so far with all the cleared 40 man spots and split deals, i think we are going to see him really try to fill out every active roster spot with a meaningful player in some capacity. also wouldnt be surprised to see him continue to create more open 40 man spots if he can get quality players he likes on good deals later.
they are at 34 right now i think so that means there are still at least 6 adds coming in. i think plan A is 2 of them go to yamamoto/imanaga. probably at least 3 more BP adds and 1 or 2 OF. i dont think more than 1 of bickford, garrett, short will still be on the 40 in a few months.
@timbhealey
David Stearns on his trip to Japan with Steve Cohen to meet with Yoshinobu Yamamoto: “Long trip, quick stay.”
Is this supposed to mean anything? If he's being literal, traveling to Japan for dinner with a free agent is literally a long trip for a quick stay.
If he's speaking figuratively, this would seem negative.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think “not very good” is acceptable for this team with Steve Cohen as owner. Not saying they should be short-sighted but they already have a pretty good nucleus and some intriguing youth. They have enough resources to supplement that to a level of competitive baseball. Being an afterthought in even the wildcard chase is unacceptable.
@jonmorosi
Juan Soto trade agreement is being finalized now, source confirms.
The deal, as @JackCurryYES
and @Joelsherman1
reported, sends Soto and Trent Grisham to New York for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Kyle Higashioka.
@jonmorosi
Sources: Free agent RHP Robert Stephenson is drawing broad interest throughout the industry this week, with the Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, and Rangers among the clubs involved.
Stephenson, 30, had a 0.678 WHIP in 42 games with the Rays this year.
@MLB
@MLBNetwork
@jonmorosi
Juan Soto trade agreement is being finalized now, source confirms.
The deal, as @JackCurryYES
and @Joelsherman1
reported, sends Soto and Trent Grisham to New York for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Kyle Higashioka.
Is this really happening ? Juan Soto is a Yankee now? Come on
Quote:
need to be patient and realize Stearns is going to be methodical both with off field structure and on fielding talent.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think “not very good” is acceptable for this team with Steve Cohen as owner. Not saying they should be short-sighted but they already have a pretty good nucleus and some intriguing youth. They have enough resources to supplement that to a level of competitive baseball. Being an afterthought in even the wildcard chase is unacceptable.
its not and they've maintained they are going to compete. with the wild card there is no excuse to not have fun years every single year.
they dont have 6+ open 40 man spots right now for no reason. they are going to pay people. there will be press conferences. and if they make good choices they will win more games than they lose.
Quote:
Jon Morosi
@jonmorosi
Juan Soto trade agreement is being finalized now, source confirms.
The deal, as @JackCurryYES
and @Joelsherman1
reported, sends Soto and Trent Grisham to New York for Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez, and Kyle Higashioka.
Is this really happening ? Juan Soto is a Yankee now? Come on
if you want yamamoto, this is a positive.
Quote:
In comment 16315294 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
need to be patient and realize Stearns is going to be methodical both with off field structure and on fielding talent.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think “not very good” is acceptable for this team with Steve Cohen as owner. Not saying they should be short-sighted but they already have a pretty good nucleus and some intriguing youth. They have enough resources to supplement that to a level of competitive baseball. Being an afterthought in even the wildcard chase is unacceptable.
its not and they've maintained they are going to compete. with the wild card there is no excuse to not have fun years every single year.
they dont have 6+ open 40 man spots right now for no reason. they are going to pay people. there will be press conferences. and if they make good choices they will win more games than they lose.
They’ll be competing. Just for 3rd place in the NL East.
-No interest in E-Rod
-Nothing going with Snell
Quote:
In comment 16315307 Chris684 said:
Quote:
In comment 16315294 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
need to be patient and realize Stearns is going to be methodical both with off field structure and on fielding talent.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think “not very good” is acceptable for this team with Steve Cohen as owner. Not saying they should be short-sighted but they already have a pretty good nucleus and some intriguing youth. They have enough resources to supplement that to a level of competitive baseball. Being an afterthought in even the wildcard chase is unacceptable.
its not and they've maintained they are going to compete. with the wild card there is no excuse to not have fun years every single year.
they dont have 6+ open 40 man spots right now for no reason. they are going to pay people. there will be press conferences. and if they make good choices they will win more games than they lose.
They’ll be competing. Just for 3rd place in the NL East.
Quote:
In comment 16315340 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16315307 Chris684 said:
Quote:
In comment 16315294 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
need to be patient and realize Stearns is going to be methodical both with off field structure and on fielding talent.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think “not very good” is acceptable for this team with Steve Cohen as owner. Not saying they should be short-sighted but they already have a pretty good nucleus and some intriguing youth. They have enough resources to supplement that to a level of competitive baseball. Being an afterthought in even the wildcard chase is unacceptable.
its not and they've maintained they are going to compete. with the wild card there is no excuse to not have fun years every single year.
they dont have 6+ open 40 man spots right now for no reason. they are going to pay people. there will be press conferences. and if they make good choices they will win more games than they lose.
They’ll be competing. Just for 3rd place in the NL East.
wild card teams.go on runs all the time. Just need to get in
They don’t have the pitching. And their hitting depth is suspect.
Per the latest from @willsammon a trade for a Burnes/Glasnow type aka a rental arm is extremely unlikely and as of now the price for Montgomery/Snell would have to come down for @mets to “seriously” consider them
Per the latest from @willsammon a trade for a Burnes/Glasnow type aka a rental arm is extremely unlikely and as of now the price for Montgomery/Snell would have to come down for @mets to “seriously” consider them
Their money isn’t the issue. It’s if YY buys into their brand.
I just hope Cohen doesn’t force anything dumb on Stearns when they miss out on everybody and then sign Alonso for like 8-9 years. So far that seems not the case with him as owner and he’ll listen to plans and ideas. Try to add pitching depth, let the kids play and if it’s a rough transition year, so be it.
-Imanaga more of a #4 with #3 upside
-Rodriguez probably better suited in the bullpen but somebody will give him a shot to start
-Go low leverage for now but upside for more given his age (25)
-Lee prototypical MLB lead off hitter
-Matsui- middle reliever
Momentum headed that direction
And hasn’t slowed down for a second since
What a crazy couple of hours 😯
And hasn’t slowed down for a second since
What a crazy couple of hours 😯
Shecky what have we missed!? Lol
The framework of a Soto deal to Yanks is in place but that isn’t really a surprise.
And hasn’t slowed down for a second since
What a crazy couple of hours 😯
Damn you Shecky. lol
Quote:
In comment 16315307 Chris684 said:
Quote:
In comment 16315294 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
need to be patient and realize Stearns is going to be methodical both with off field structure and on fielding talent.
Mets may not be very good next year or two.
I hear what you’re saying but I don’t think “not very good” is acceptable for this team with Steve Cohen as owner. Not saying they should be short-sighted but they already have a pretty good nucleus and some intriguing youth. They have enough resources to supplement that to a level of competitive baseball. Being an afterthought in even the wildcard chase is unacceptable.
its not and they've maintained they are going to compete. with the wild card there is no excuse to not have fun years every single year.
they dont have 6+ open 40 man spots right now for no reason. they are going to pay people. there will be press conferences. and if they make good choices they will win more games than they lose.
They’ll be competing. Just for 3rd place in the NL East.
who came in 3rd place in the east in 2022?
who went farthest from the east into the 2023 playoffs?
what NL team was tied with what 3rd place NL East team in wins in 2023? how far did they go?
One day contract
retirement
and then
Retiring his number!!!!!
What a weird Met fan you are. You are kissing more ass than ever over on the Yankee thread and telling Mets fans to accept that they suck on a Mets thread?
Quote:
The Mets stink. Just accept it.
What a weird Met fan you are. You are kissing more ass than ever over on the Yankee thread and telling Mets fans to accept that they suck on a Mets thread?
Yep. I see the reality of the situation. Same discussion Giants fans have here. I live in the real world where real results are real.
Quote:
The Mets stink. Just accept it.
What a weird Met fan you are. You are kissing more ass than ever over on the Yankee thread and telling Mets fans to accept that they suck on a Mets thread?
it's reminiscent of the self loathers who spent the first year of cohen telling us how he was no different than the wilponzis.
probably thinks lindor is overrated and nimmo's a good 4th of'er.
Quote:
In comment 16315449 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
The Mets stink. Just accept it.
What a weird Met fan you are. You are kissing more ass than ever over on the Yankee thread and telling Mets fans to accept that they suck on a Mets thread?
Yep. I see the reality of the situation. Same discussion Giants fans have here. I live in the real world where real results are real.
and the results you've seen so far this offseason are what?
Quote:
In comment 16315449 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
The Mets stink. Just accept it.
What a weird Met fan you are. You are kissing more ass than ever over on the Yankee thread and telling Mets fans to accept that they suck on a Mets thread?
it's reminiscent of the self loathers who spent the first year of cohen telling us how he was no different than the wilponzis.
probably thinks lindor is overrated and nimmo's a good 4th of'er.
Cohen has completely misfired as an owner so far. He’s in over his head and only just realizing it. Hopefully he is figuring it out but he’s spent over a billion dollars on top of the 2.5 spent to get in door and not much to show for it.
Quote:
In comment 16315452 Chris684 said:
Quote:
In comment 16315449 Sammo85 said:
Quote:
The Mets stink. Just accept it.
What a weird Met fan you are. You are kissing more ass than ever over on the Yankee thread and telling Mets fans to accept that they suck on a Mets thread?
Yep. I see the reality of the situation. Same discussion Giants fans have here. I live in the real world where real results are real.
and the results you've seen so far this offseason are what?
A desperate realization that it’s going to take a slow painful multi year process to retool this roster. It’s a pile of mish mosh with some sprinkles of hope.
Yep. I see the reality of the situation. Same discussion Giants fans have here. I live in the real world where real results are real.
and the results you've seen so far this offseason are what?
A desperate realization that it’s going to take a slow painful multi year process to retool this roster. It’s a pile of mish mosh with some sprinkles of hope.
got it you know what alvarez, baty, vientos, and mauricio are going to be next year (steamer projects all 4 over 1 win and alvarez over 3)? and how they are going to fill the half open pitching staff?
how are your comments different then the threads comparing cohen the wilponzis like a week before they signed scherzer and ended up having their best season in 3 decades? other than the fact that this year's FA pitchers are all between 6-13 years younger than max?
A deal is not finalized, but the NL champions are among the finalists to sign him.
Quote:
Yep. I see the reality of the situation. Same discussion Giants fans have here. I live in the real world where real results are real.
and the results you've seen so far this offseason are what?
A desperate realization that it’s going to take a slow painful multi year process to retool this roster. It’s a pile of mish mosh with some sprinkles of hope.
got it you know what alvarez, baty, vientos, and mauricio are going to be next year (steamer projects all 4 over 1 win and alvarez over 3)? and how they are going to fill the half open pitching staff?
how are your comments different then the threads comparing cohen the wilponzis like a week before they signed scherzer and ended up having their best season in 3 decades? other than the fact that this year's FA pitchers are all between 6-13 years younger than max?
I took a very patient approach with Cohen. I never said anything that you’re alluding to so I must take great offense to you doing that. Met fans don’t all have to be super optimistic every offseason and just taking morsels of potential and blowing them out of unrealistic proportion. I don’t criticize people for being super hopeful and rooting for their team no matter what. I root for the team too so don’t debase me or mock me or throw me into some god damn pit.
You seem like a good soul. Who breeds on optimism and hope.
I do not. So I don’t want to bash you. You do you brother. Seriously. I’m very pessimistic about the compete level of this roster but am hopeful for the future in about 3 years time. But don’t act like because of a few steamer projections you see and a few metrics you find somewhere you can just toss out people from this fanbase who are incredibly demoralized by losing.
11 hitters league average+
vientos/stewart 20 homers
11 hitters league average+
vientos/stewart 20 homers
What were the steamer projections for last year, especially pitching?
I'm actually extremely encouraged with Cohen now. He hires Stearns to run baseball operations and I expect shrewd moves while being opportunistic. Don't just throw money at everything. I don't care how much money Cohen has, he'll get tired of writing those luxury tax penalty checks. So this years approach does not surprise me at all.
I liked the fact that the Mets beefed up the farm system prior to the deadline. They need to get financially leaner and smarter which I trust Stearns to do. And when the time comes, be opportunistic utilizing the resources Cohen has for free agency which is exactly what Stearns said.
This is the first time under Cohen's ownership I actually see the beginnings of a sustainable plan.
But…we know have an owner that can literally buy any player he wants. And while that is amazing, it also doesn’t mean that you should. Last year prove that. I really want Yamamoto, but I don’t know if I want to commit 10 years to him. But Cohen can do it if he wants to. Or more.
I’m okay with being patient while they build something. We are in an infinitely better place under Cohen than we were under the corrupt Wilpons. This teams needs stability, consistency and to build an identity. I doubt we get the big FAs this off-season and that’s okay. But I NEVER have to worry about the owner acting like a small market team and lying to his fans. And that’s huge.
I took a very patient approach with Cohen. I never said anything that you’re alluding to so I must take great offense to you doing that. Met fans don’t all have to be super optimistic every offseason and just taking morsels of potential and blowing them out of unrealistic proportion. I don’t criticize people for being super hopeful and rooting for their team no matter what. I root for the team too so don’t debase me or mock me or throw me into some god damn pit.
You seem like a good soul. Who breeds on optimism and hope.
I do not. So I don’t want to bash you. You do you brother. Seriously. I’m very pessimistic about the compete level of this roster but am hopeful for the future in about 3 years time. But don’t act like because of a few steamer projections you see and a few metrics you find somewhere you can just toss out people from this fanbase who are incredibly demoralized by losing.
you may have been patient with cohen but others werent, i didnt accuse you of anything prior to this thread bc i have no recollection of any commemts you made, i compared your comments in this thread to those bc they are one in the same w/ what was said november 2021. making judgements before things happen that quickly looked silly.
you're free to be as pessimistic as youd like and i acknowledge this probably sounds like parody coming from me but id suggest a little humility for the unknown. especially at this point in the offseason when 1/4 or more of the active roster is unknown. however i come off i try to back up my opinions with data and not fortune telling.
honest question, if some combo of yamamoto / montgomery / imanaga are mets 10 days from now, would that shift your thinking in the slightest?
last thing - after the last decade of the wilponzis, poignantly captured in the beltran interview last week if you havent read it, if having an owner who cares enough to fly across the world for a free agent, who was willing to outspend the rest of baseball by more than $100m last year, including spending about $50m midseason to buy a better farm system like no owner has ever done before, arent good enough reasons to be optimistic i dont know what are. even if things are far from perfect right now. maybe you disagree with that broader view compensating for the fact that they had an obviously disappointing season but i dont think it biased me from being critical of things that worth being critical. i just try to hold off on doing that for when things happen not before they happen. if they swing and miss entirely on the top of the sp market you can bet ill be critical.
the owner can't "literally" buy any player he wants, in fact he's finding out right now he may not even necessarily be able to buy the players available in free agency.
is there a better fit for the Mets than Yamamoto? 25 year old top of the rotation starter, only costs money. Isn't that the prototypical player Cohen should be able to "buy" - if he doesn't wind up in Queens, what does that tell you? Maybe the highest bidder doesn't always win or that he wasn't the highest bidder - you can interpret them two different ways.
Montgomery, not even a TOR starter really with a lengthy track record, wants to "go home" which last time I heard was when Roger Clemens left Boston to to go Toronto (he's from Texas).
those are just a couple examples.
Even Ohtani who prototypes as a perfect bat in the middle of the Mets lineup as just a hitter not even considering if/when he starts pitching again, sure he costs draft pick comp since he has a QO but he's a guy you break that rule for - doesn't even get a sniff from the Mets (reportedly).
money is not the only answer. Players sometimes want more - they want a legacy of winning, culture, belonging, teammates, structure, know their role, know you have a plan, things you can't just wave a wallet at. It's a two-way street.
if this off-season Cohen comes up empty and it remains to be seen - I'm not prejudging the off-season on 12/6 but I wouldn't be shocked if he has an exit plan. the fucking Texas Rangers won a WS and Cohen's Mets aren't a playoff team today with the leagues highest payroll. I feel like it is harder than he thought it would be.
Quote:
mets steamer projos pretty interesting:
11 hitters league average+
vientos/stewart 20 homers
What were the steamer projections for last year, especially pitching?
im not aware of them being archived but id imagine diaz' steamer projection wasnt that he'd miss the season entirely.
verlander ended up at 3.3 fwar in 27 starts, so basically a 4 win pace so he probably came close.
scherzer under by more than jv, but he was worth 1.2 fwar in 8 starts for texas so he turned it around after he got dealt bc that was more than he was worth in the 19 starts he made for the mets. whether it was pitch clock or injuries related to age who knows but the results were the results.
quintana was worth 1.5 fwar in half season so he was on pace, but missed time bc he was injured.
senga may have over performed by as much as carrasco underperformed.
szymborski posted his analysis of zips projections last year and they basically hit exactly right in aggregate, some guys overachieve some underachieve. the mets had an underachieving year for a lot of reasons - most probably associated with how much age they had on the roster.
I'm actually extremely encouraged with Cohen now. He hires Stearns to run baseball operations and I expect shrewd moves while being opportunistic. Don't just throw money at everything. I don't care how much money Cohen has, he'll get tired of writing those luxury tax penalty checks. So this years approach does not surprise me at all.
I liked the fact that the Mets beefed up the farm system prior to the deadline. They need to get financially leaner and smarter which I trust Stearns to do. And when the time comes, be opportunistic utilizing the resources Cohen has for free agency which is exactly what Stearns said.
This is the first time under Cohen's ownership I actually see the beginnings of a sustainable plan.
Cohen's approval as owner happened if i recall a few days after free agency had already begun in november 2020. I think cohen/sandy in their intro press conference stated that they may have claimed someone who had been on waivers in those first few days before they were technically allowed to do anything (including contacting anyone in the fo held over from the wilpon regime).
So he took over a team during free agency, had to fire BVW/his regime, and then had to try to pretty rapidly hire a management team. Not saying it was an impossible situation but there was no way for it to not be chaotic, especially once porter's junk came out (@pj, literally).
stearns was the guy they wanted from the beginning but they had to wait it out, hopefully he's worth the wait.
Texas is the right comparison. 2 offseasons ago many (myself very much included) were suspicious of spending $500m on seager + semian off a 60-102 season in 2021. that seemed like insanity.
it seemed like even greater insanity when they signed JDG last offseason off a not much better 68-94.
almost $700 million committed to 3 players and at that moment literally nothing to show for it. in fact seager had one of his worst offensive seasons and they still doubled down.
they went even more all in at the deadline with scherzer + montgomery even though jdg was down with TJS and only managed to win 90 games. but that turned out to be enough even though scherzer too got injured.
and corey seager who they signed in 2021, and had one of his worst offensive seasons in 2022, carried them to a ws in 2023. even though the houston astros still won the division and texas wouldn't have even been the wild card if it was the rules of a few years ago with 4 playoff teams.
im not positive what the moral of that story is but if your team has the chance to get great players, and as a fan it's not your money, why not? obviously you cant just spend blindly there needs to be a coherent plan and you need to get more evaluations right than wrong. but with so many teams making the playoffs now if you have an owner willing to take chances your odds are a lot higher things can change quickly.
$32m AAV worth of (starling marte $20m + eduardo mehscobar $12m) at ages 33+
or 32.5m AAV of Seager from age 28+?
im pretty sure the draft comp for the QO would have been the pick that took blade tidwell and the pick that took brandon sproat (who didnt sign that year anyway).
I'm actually extremely encouraged with Cohen now. He hires Stearns to run baseball operations and I expect shrewd moves while being opportunistic. Don't just throw money at everything. I don't care how much money Cohen has, he'll get tired of writing those luxury tax penalty checks. So this years approach does not surprise me at all.
I liked the fact that the Mets beefed up the farm system prior to the deadline. They need to get financially leaner and smarter which I trust Stearns to do. And when the time comes, be opportunistic utilizing the resources Cohen has for free agency which is exactly what Stearns said.
This is the first time under Cohen's ownership I actually see the beginnings of a sustainable plan.
I'm not sure I agree with the framing of this. He said from day one his primary concern was rebuilding the farm system. If fans and observers misread how he spent money that's not his fault. He signed sherzer amd Verlander to *short* deals not team-killing multi-year contacts. The play was always to be able to contend short term and restock a barren farm. They were a contender for a year but Max and Verlander were never long term investments and that is okay. And when it didn't work out as planned they flipped the pieces they "threw money at" for a haul of prospects to accelerate what he said he was going to do on day one: rebuild a farm system and that process had already started before that point.
3 years 45. Love it for the Reds
Quote:
if this off-season Cohen comes up empty and it remains to be seen - I'm not prejudging the off-season on 12/6 but I wouldn't be shocked if he has an exit plan. the fucking Texas Rangers won a WS and Cohen's Mets aren't a playoff team today with the leagues highest payroll. I feel like it is harder than he thought it would be.
Texas is the right comparison. 2 offseasons ago many (myself very much included) were suspicious of spending $500m on seager + semian off a 60-102 season in 2021. that seemed like insanity.
it seemed like even greater insanity when they signed JDG last offseason off a not much better 68-94.
almost $700 million committed to 3 players and at that moment literally nothing to show for it. in fact seager had one of his worst offensive seasons and they still doubled down.
they went even more all in at the deadline with scherzer + montgomery even though jdg was down with TJS and only managed to win 90 games. but that turned out to be enough even though scherzer too got injured.
and corey seager who they signed in 2021, and had one of his worst offensive seasons in 2022, carried them to a ws in 2023. even though the houston astros still won the division and texas wouldn't have even been the wild card if it was the rules of a few years ago with 4 playoff teams.
im not positive what the moral of that story is but if your team has the chance to get great players, and as a fan it's not your money, why not? obviously you cant just spend blindly there needs to be a coherent plan and you need to get more evaluations right than wrong. but with so many teams making the playoffs now if you have an owner willing to take chances your odds are a lot higher things can change quickly.
I'm not sure what Texas did is directly repeatable. Just like I think in football drafting your QB in the 6th round with a comp pick as a strategy isn't really repeatable.
But anyway, my point was Cohen opening his wallet and players jumping on to the roster doesn't seem to be happening like he (or some fans on here) thought would happen.
For many reasons, players may want to play somewhere else for the same money or in some cases maybe less.
The sale of the team and the transition period was during the height of Covid and there were a bunch of unforeseen circumstances at the GM level. I don't think anyone ever thought that money alone buys you any player you want, and even if it did, buying every player wouldn't necessarily mean you would win.
He's thrown some of his financial weight around already in the form of Lindor and the pitching, and most importantly he's proven he will spend even more money if it means he can quickly reverse some decisions that didn't pan out. Last year's deadline was proof of this.
He finally has the guy he wanted (Stearns) in place to run the baseball decisions. Meanwhile he's done everything Mets fans could have ever dreamed of in terms of fan relations that the Wilpons pissed on for years.
As a long suffering Mets fan, I have no doubt that if Yamamoto does not come here, it will NOT be because the money wasn't there. That's all I can ask as a fan.
The sale of the team and the transition period was during the height of Covid and there were a bunch of unforeseen circumstances at the GM level. I don't think anyone ever thought that money alone buys you any player you want, and even if it did, buying every player wouldn't necessarily mean you would win.
He's thrown some of his financial weight around already in the form of Lindor and the pitching, and most importantly he's proven he will spend even more money if it means he can quickly reverse some decisions that didn't pan out. Last year's deadline was proof of this.
He finally has the guy he wanted (Stearns) in place to run the baseball decisions. Meanwhile he's done everything Mets fans could have ever dreamed of in terms of fan relations that the Wilpons pissed on for years.
As a long suffering Mets fan, I have no doubt that if Yamamoto does not come here, it will NOT be because the money wasn't there. That's all I can ask as a fan.
I think with Stearns there is a long term plan now. Never felt it prior but you are correct, it was a transitional period and covid, which played a role.
the owner can't "literally" buy any player he wants, in fact he's finding out right now he may not even necessarily be able to buy the players available in free agency.
is there a better fit for the Mets than Yamamoto? 25 year old top of the rotation starter, only costs money. Isn't that the prototypical player Cohen should be able to "buy" - if he doesn't wind up in Queens, what does that tell you? Maybe the highest bidder doesn't always win or that he wasn't the highest bidder - you can interpret them two different ways.
Montgomery, not even a TOR starter really with a lengthy track record, wants to "go home" which last time I heard was when Roger Clemens left Boston to to go Toronto (he's from Texas).
those are just a couple examples.
Even Ohtani who prototypes as a perfect bat in the middle of the Mets lineup as just a hitter not even considering if/when he starts pitching again, sure he costs draft pick comp since he has a QO but he's a guy you break that rule for - doesn't even get a sniff from the Mets (reportedly).
money is not the only answer. Players sometimes want more - they want a legacy of winning, culture, belonging, teammates, structure, know their role, know you have a plan, things you can't just wave a wallet at. It's a two-way street.
if this off-season Cohen comes up empty and it remains to be seen - I'm not prejudging the off-season on 12/6 but I wouldn't be shocked if he has an exit plan. the fucking Texas Rangers won a WS and Cohen's Mets aren't a playoff team today with the leagues highest payroll. I feel like it is harder than he thought it would be.
So sorry the word “literally” is such a trigger for you 🙄
I mean, we essentially said the same thing but it was like a bat signal for you to make some weird snarky response. Hope you feel better.
But the he point remains…Cohen’s wealth puts him at the front of the line of signing premier FAs, and that’s good enough. We won’t always get them (again…as I mentioned in my post), but we have a chance where we typically did not. And that’s a good place to me. And while I would love to get Yamamoto, I also don’t know if a 10 year contract for him is wise (it probably isn’t). But then again, Yankee fans think they are going to sign him for $25 million per year (which I think is really low). We’ll see soon what Yamamoto wants more - the biggest contract or to be a Yankee.
I think its a great pivot for them. The ankle he had last year worries me a little, and some acclimation to the pitching/parks here, but I think the hit tool with him is legit and translates.
The sale of the team and the transition period was during the height of Covid and there were a bunch of unforeseen circumstances at the GM level. I don't think anyone ever thought that money alone buys you any player you want, and even if it did, buying every player wouldn't necessarily mean you would win.
He's thrown some of his financial weight around already in the form of Lindor and the pitching, and most importantly he's proven he will spend even more money if it means he can quickly reverse some decisions that didn't pan out. Last year's deadline was proof of this.
He finally has the guy he wanted (Stearns) in place to run the baseball decisions. Meanwhile he's done everything Mets fans could have ever dreamed of in terms of fan relations that the Wilpons pissed on for years.
As a long suffering Mets fan, I have no doubt that if Yamamoto does not come here, it will NOT be because the money wasn't there. That's all I can ask as a fan.
Eventually, its simply about winning and doing it consistently. That hasn't been Mets MO in over 3 decades (and even the 80s run, was short over a few seasons and ended in quick disappointment after 88). If Cohen changes that finally, after some serious initial misfires/missteps, all the better.
Quote:
He wanted his Prez of BB Ops and now he has him.
The sale of the team and the transition period was during the height of Covid and there were a bunch of unforeseen circumstances at the GM level. I don't think anyone ever thought that money alone buys you any player you want, and even if it did, buying every player wouldn't necessarily mean you would win.
He's thrown some of his financial weight around already in the form of Lindor and the pitching, and most importantly he's proven he will spend even more money if it means he can quickly reverse some decisions that didn't pan out. Last year's deadline was proof of this.
He finally has the guy he wanted (Stearns) in place to run the baseball decisions. Meanwhile he's done everything Mets fans could have ever dreamed of in terms of fan relations that the Wilpons pissed on for years.
As a long suffering Mets fan, I have no doubt that if Yamamoto does not come here, it will NOT be because the money wasn't there. That's all I can ask as a fan.
Eventually, its simply about winning and doing it consistently. That hasn't been Mets MO in over 3 decades (and even the 80s run, was short over a few seasons and ended in quick disappointment after 88). If Cohen changes that finally, after some serious initial misfires/missteps, all the better.
"Serious missteps/misfires" LOL
Inherited garbage, first season shortened by Covid. a 101 win season and a couple of disappointing ones (although the latest disappointing season served as a massive boost to the farm system given the way Cohen handled it), all while still trying to get his baseball ops in place.
Quote:
In comment 16315554 Chris684 said:
Quote:
He wanted his Prez of BB Ops and now he has him.
The sale of the team and the transition period was during the height of Covid and there were a bunch of unforeseen circumstances at the GM level. I don't think anyone ever thought that money alone buys you any player you want, and even if it did, buying every player wouldn't necessarily mean you would win.
He's thrown some of his financial weight around already in the form of Lindor and the pitching, and most importantly he's proven he will spend even more money if it means he can quickly reverse some decisions that didn't pan out. Last year's deadline was proof of this.
He finally has the guy he wanted (Stearns) in place to run the baseball decisions. Meanwhile he's done everything Mets fans could have ever dreamed of in terms of fan relations that the Wilpons pissed on for years.
As a long suffering Mets fan, I have no doubt that if Yamamoto does not come here, it will NOT be because the money wasn't there. That's all I can ask as a fan.
Eventually, its simply about winning and doing it consistently. That hasn't been Mets MO in over 3 decades (and even the 80s run, was short over a few seasons and ended in quick disappointment after 88). If Cohen changes that finally, after some serious initial misfires/missteps, all the better.
"Serious missteps/misfires" LOL
Inherited garbage, first season shortened by Covid. a 101 win season and a couple of disappointing ones (although the latest disappointing season served as a massive boost to the farm system given the way Cohen handled it), all while still trying to get his baseball ops in place.
What are you laughing about? Cohen himself has admitted the first three years have brought some learning experiences and things that were missed (including by Sandy) with manager, general manager situations and front office strategies on player development.
Quote:
it's about as meaningful as genocide or violence or racism (not to get political).
the owner can't "literally" buy any player he wants, in fact he's finding out right now he may not even necessarily be able to buy the players available in free agency.
is there a better fit for the Mets than Yamamoto? 25 year old top of the rotation starter, only costs money. Isn't that the prototypical player Cohen should be able to "buy" - if he doesn't wind up in Queens, what does that tell you? Maybe the highest bidder doesn't always win or that he wasn't the highest bidder - you can interpret them two different ways.
Montgomery, not even a TOR starter really with a lengthy track record, wants to "go home" which last time I heard was when Roger Clemens left Boston to to go Toronto (he's from Texas).
those are just a couple examples.
Even Ohtani who prototypes as a perfect bat in the middle of the Mets lineup as just a hitter not even considering if/when he starts pitching again, sure he costs draft pick comp since he has a QO but he's a guy you break that rule for - doesn't even get a sniff from the Mets (reportedly).
money is not the only answer. Players sometimes want more - they want a legacy of winning, culture, belonging, teammates, structure, know their role, know you have a plan, things you can't just wave a wallet at. It's a two-way street.
if this off-season Cohen comes up empty and it remains to be seen - I'm not prejudging the off-season on 12/6 but I wouldn't be shocked if he has an exit plan. the fucking Texas Rangers won a WS and Cohen's Mets aren't a playoff team today with the leagues highest payroll. I feel like it is harder than he thought it would be.
So sorry the word “literally” is such a trigger for you 🙄
I mean, we essentially said the same thing but it was like a bat signal for you to make some weird snarky response. Hope you feel better.
But the he point remains…Cohen’s wealth puts him at the front of the line of signing premier FAs, and that’s good enough. We won’t always get them (again…as I mentioned in my post), but we have a chance where we typically did not. And that’s a good place to me. And while I would love to get Yamamoto, I also don’t know if a 10 year contract for him is wise (it probably isn’t). But then again, Yankee fans think they are going to sign him for $25 million per year (which I think is really low). We’ll see soon what Yamamoto wants more - the biggest contract or to be a Yankee.
Not triggered by it, but I have three teenagers and the word literally has replaced "like" or they're used in concert - so whatever maybe I am triggered by it. Sorry for the snark.
anyway, I think you need to separate the pre-and post Madoff Wilpons.
the Mets made Bonilla the highest paid player in the league, Piazza too at one point, signed Beltran, traded for and extended Johan - and routinely had a high payroll.
And still never won.
You really need to get to a few years post-Madoff fall out until the Mets payroll was not always in the top 10, most of the time top 5. Then they began operating like the NY Twins or Pirates.
The biggest complaint I had about the pre-Madoff Wilpons is they would almost never go the "extra mile". Yes they'd have high payrolls but they made silly decisions like Bay vs Holliday when the Holliday bidding reached those levels.
With Cohen presumptively we don't have that, but can he "sell"? Can he get the Yamamoto's or Montgomerys or whoever bought in on his vision and can Stearns put the pieces together.
remains to be seen, but I reiterate, I think he thought it would be easier.
what exactly are you pointing to Correa as an example of? healthy he was one of the best players in MLB and an MVP candidate (was 5th in 2021), and he was a prime aged FA at 28 last year.
cohen was trying to make a 101 win team better with an actual prime aged star who only cost money (wouldnt have hurt farm).
when it was clear he wasnt healthy, they bailed, took some criticism for it, but in the end like SFG look correct.
Not triggered by it, but I have three teenagers and the word literally has replaced "like" or they're used in concert - so whatever maybe I am triggered by it. Sorry for the snark.
anyway, I think you need to separate the pre-and post Madoff Wilpons.
the Mets made Bonilla the highest paid player in the league, Piazza too at one point, signed Beltran, traded for and extended Johan - and routinely had a high payroll.
And still never won.
You really need to get to a few years post-Madoff fall out until the Mets payroll was not always in the top 10, most of the time top 5. Then they began operating like the NY Twins or Pirates.
The biggest complaint I had about the pre-Madoff Wilpons is they would almost never go the "extra mile". Yes they'd have high payrolls but they made silly decisions like Bay vs Holliday when the Holliday bidding reached those levels.
With Cohen presumptively we don't have that, but can he "sell"? Can he get the Yamamoto's or Montgomerys or whoever bought in on his vision and can Stearns put the pieces together.
remains to be seen, but I reiterate, I think he thought it would be easier.
Fair enough - sorry for my snark as well, lol.
I agree with everything you said.
is significantly less high on Imanaga than other sources I've read. They also view Go as more of a low-leverage reliever with upside to develop further (only 25 years old)
Probably also worth mentioning that the teams willing to bid 100+ million are probably higher on Imanaga than BA
I'm not sure what Texas did is directly repeatable. Just like I think in football drafting your QB in the 6th round with a comp pick as a strategy isn't really repeatable.
But anyway, my point was Cohen opening his wallet and players jumping on to the roster doesn't seem to be happening like he (or some fans on here) thought would happen.
For many reasons, players may want to play somewhere else for the same money or in some cases maybe less.
maybe i didnt say it clear enough but i think what's repeatable is pursuing great players paying off - if you pick the right players. at the $300m+ level that shouldnt be so hard. they obviously got it right with lindor (even though that was a trade not a fa). it's why i give cohen a lot of credit for trying for correa last year and being 100% right when he said after "we needed 1 more bat". they did and they do.
"paying off" doesnt necessarily mean championship. LAD have done everything right for a decade and they only (barely) have 1 WS win. to carry on your 6th rd comp pick qb analogy, it's a different level of investment and the outcomes but if i were running an nfl team id probably draft a qb on day 3 every year because day 3 picks are disposable and you miss 100% of the shots you dont take. even getting tommy devito level backup qb is a major value from a day 3 pick. most will be more like andre woodson or kyle lauletta who never do anything. hitting on dak or purdy is franchise altering in the same way adding corey seager was franchise altering for texas.
in terms of players not jumping to come here there's a lot more evidence against that than for it, at least until their top targets choose to go elsewhere.
cohen offseason 1 brought a lindor extension, highest paid SS and NYM ever before cohen's first regular season game. that move was every bit as big as the soto trade for yankees. lindor was 27.
cohen offseason 2 brought a h2h win vs LAD for scherzer off CY runner up, plus all the black friday guys.
cohen offseason 3 brought not just verlander off CY/WS but senga at a bargain contract, and he had one of the biggest markets last year.
ohtani is the 1 big target they werent able to get in the mix for, but martino has said they were willing to spend the money if there was interest on ohtani's side in NY. apparently there wasnt (for either ny team).
i suspect at an absolute minimum cohen offseason #4 is going to bring the biggest SP contract in franchise history to somebody. previous high was JDG's 5x$137m (which he opted out of after year 4).
Mets were willing to go deep on JDG for 3 yrs, and got lucky there as it turned out.
Mets may have to divest some farm capital to add a starter just to be marginally staffed.
I haven't looked at next offseasons pitching market, but Mets may have to look to spend big again there. Severino is a one year gamble - I'd be stunned if he makes more than 15 starts. Quintana also will have some limits and his contract is up.
I believe Senga has an out after Year 3?
Mets were willing to go deep on JDG for 3 yrs, and got lucky there as it turned out.
Mets may have to divest some farm capital to add a starter just to be marginally staffed.
I haven't looked at next offseasons pitching market, but Mets may have to look to spend big again there. Severino is a one year gamble - I'd be stunned if he makes more than 15 starts. Quintana also will have some limits and his contract is up.
I believe Senga has an out after Year 3?
Correct. The Mets have 3 SP with guaranteed contracts following 2025. Megill/Peterson/Lucchesi
Burnes, Bieber headling the pitching FA class from brief look at 2024-2025 offseason. The rest is "woof" - lot of older guys, including Wheeler. Buehler and Glasnow are in there also, but with those injury histories, no way long-term on those guys.
minor league P Alan Perdomo pitched in the DSL for 4 seasons.... strange
@MarinoMLB
·
30m
Left out Shoto Imanaga, who I’ve heard Mets and several other teams are interested in. My best educated guess is Mets have these arms ranked accordingly on their board:
1. Yamamoto
2. Montgomery
3. Snell (bumped down bc QO)
4. Imanaga
here is the thing with snell. everyone talks about next year's FA crop, but other than burnes, how many guys are better/younger?
if we were stack ranking the best SP for 2025 Opening Day out of this year's FA crop and next year's, Snell is still very high on this list, possibly #3 behind Yamamoto and Burnes assuming cole doesnt opt out if we are excluding anyone older than 32.
Yamamoto
Burnes
wheeler (entering age 35 season)
Snell
fried (entering age 31)
bieber (entering age 30)
woodruff (off injury)
i think they need 1 of Yamamoto/Snell this year,
then probably 1 of those other guys next year too (burnes, fried, maybe bieber if he bounces back).
it's possible they like montgomery on that level, but if that were the case i think they'd have already been more aggressive on him.
the thing they cant do is just wait for 25 year old yamamoto's because they will be waiting forever. he's described as a unicorn for a reason.
Quote:
Sammon reiterated to me, the Mets are not in on Glasnow and Mets sources tell him they aren't interested in trading for Burnes given his contract situation/Boras/prospect cost.
Burnes, Bieber headling the pitching FA class from brief look at 2024-2025 offseason. The rest is "woof" - lot of older guys, including Wheeler. Buehler and Glasnow are in there also, but with those injury histories, no way long-term on those guys.
hey we agree on something!
is significantly less high on Imanaga than other sources I've read. They also view Go as more of a low-leverage reliever with upside to develop further (only 25 years old)
Probably also worth mentioning that the teams willing to bid 100+ million are probably higher on Imanaga than BA
Dan do you remember where they were on senga last year? I remember there was at least 1 service that thought there was significant reliever risk for him. "just a 2 pitch pitcher" etc.
that doesn't necessarily foretell success for imanaga but i think last year exposed some limitations in the international scouting capabilities of the public data. suzuki and yoshida probably have places in that argument as well.
mlb.com has him listed as an opt out? im pretty sure the yankees can guarantee something to cancel it out though (and i doubt he's leaving even if he hit the market).
Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (opt-out), Justin Verlander (vesting option), Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi (vesting option), Chris Sale (vesting option), Tyler Glasnow, Robbie Ray (opt-out), Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Freddy Peralta (club option), Merrill Kelly (club option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kyle Gibson (club option), Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Anthony DeSclafani, Nick Pivetta, Domingo Germán, Marco Gonzales (club option), Andrew Heaney, Eric Lauer, John Means, José Quintana, Michael Soroka, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull
https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes - ( New Window )
Quote:
Interestingly @BaseballAmerica
is significantly less high on Imanaga than other sources I've read. They also view Go as more of a low-leverage reliever with upside to develop further (only 25 years old)
Probably also worth mentioning that the teams willing to bid 100+ million are probably higher on Imanaga than BA
Dan do you remember where they were on senga last year? I remember there was at least 1 service that thought there was significant reliever risk for him. "just a 2 pitch pitcher" etc.
that doesn't necessarily foretell success for imanaga but i think last year exposed some limitations in the international scouting capabilities of the public data. suzuki and yoshida probably have places in that argument as well.
They were higher on Senga. They projected Senga as a #3 if he threw strikes. Obviously he was better than that this season (absolutely no knock on Senga, but when it comes to "new" pitchers Japanese or not, you like to see a 2+ sample size before really stating what they are. Will the ghost fork remain as dominant when players have seen it? I mean Nomo year 1 was a phenom, again this isn't anything against Senga) . BA called Seng'a floor a #4. They called Imanaga a 4-5 with the floor of a bulk innings RPer.
Quote:
can't be a FA next season
mlb.com has him listed as an opt out? im pretty sure the yankees can guarantee something to cancel it out though (and i doubt he's leaving even if he hit the market).
Starting pitcher: Gerrit Cole (opt-out), Justin Verlander (vesting option), Max Scherzer, Corbin Burnes, Zack Wheeler, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Shane Bieber, Walker Buehler, Nathan Eovaldi (vesting option), Chris Sale (vesting option), Tyler Glasnow, Robbie Ray (opt-out), Alex Cobb, Kyle Hendricks, Charlie Morton, Freddy Peralta (club option), Merrill Kelly (club option), Wade Miley (mutual option), Lance Lynn (club option), Kyle Gibson (club option), Luis Severino, Yusei Kikuchi, Patrick Corbin, Anthony DeSclafani, Nick Pivetta, Domingo Germán, Marco Gonzales (club option), Andrew Heaney, Eric Lauer, John Means, José Quintana, Michael Soroka, Ross Stripling, Spencer Turnbull https://www.mlb.com/news/baseball-s-next-free-agent-classes - ( New Window )
His opt out triggers an additional optional year added by the Yankees. He has no avenue to become a FA outside of the Yankees letting him walk.
He had cool hair and his dad I believe was a HUGE Mets fan. Might even be on here 👋
some might suggest that meets the definition of assumption.
In comment 16315702 Eric on Li said:
-He has an opt out after 2024. The opt-out allows the Yankees to tack on an additional year to his current contract which would VOID the opt-out
In what scenario would the Yankees not want Cole back? And what scenario would they not want him back but the Mets and other teams WOULD want him? I truly can't come up with one.
Quote:
97 OPS+ over the past 2 seasons hitting .246/.333/.394 in the best hitters park in baseball, -21 DRS at 2b, -16 OAA. I'm perplexed as to why people mention him as a target for the Mets so often.
He had cool hair and his dad I believe was a HUGE Mets fan. Might even be on here 👋
Hard pass (Sorry if you're on here Jonathan!)
The Future: Imanaga’s feel for pitching gives him a chance to be a No. 4 or 5 starter. He may fit best as a swingman or bulk reliever on a contending team.
BA Grade: 50/Medium
Scouting Grades
Fastball: 50. Curveball: 40. Slider: 45. Splitter: 55. Control: 55
Montgomery-Texas
Ohtani-LAD
Bellinger- Cubs
Lee- Padres
Snell- "He wants Seattle, very quiet on him so far but Braves?"
Chapman- Toronto
Hader- Phillies
Stroman- Angels or Dodgers
Imanaga- Mets
Hoskins- Cubs
Teoscar Hernandez- Mets
Lugo-Braves
JD Martinez- Arizona
Relief prospect Ryan Ammons, Boston’s 2023 10th round pick out of Clemson, never pitched more 27 innings in a single college season in part because he was injured for two months of his draft spring. The drop-and-drive style lefty only throws 88-89 mph but his fastball punches way, way above its weight thanks to its extreme uphill angle, which was impossible for college hitters to get on top of. You can project on him throwing harder because of how athletic and powerful Ammons’ delivery looks, but he’ll still need to find a better secondary pitch in pro ball. His changeup looked better than his breaking ball in college and we think that pitch has the better chance to emerge as a real weapon.
-He has an opt out after 2024. The opt-out allows the Yankees to tack on an additional year to his current contract which would VOID the opt-out
In what scenario would the Yankees not want Cole back? And what scenario would they not want him back but the Mets and other teams WOULD want him? I truly can't come up with one.
dan take a breathe - you are arguing something nobody argued.
my initial post assumed that cole wouldnt be available. nobody suggested he would be available - the only reason he was mentioned is because he was listed on a FA list driectly from mlb.com that was posted 3 days ago.
Quote:
completely confused as to what my "assumption" is?
-He has an opt out after 2024. The opt-out allows the Yankees to tack on an additional year to his current contract which would VOID the opt-out
In what scenario would the Yankees not want Cole back? And what scenario would they not want him back but the Mets and other teams WOULD want him? I truly can't come up with one.
dan take a breathe - you are arguing something nobody argued.
my initial post assumed that cole wouldnt be available. nobody suggested he would be available - the only reason he was mentioned is because he was listed on a FA list driectly from mlb.com that was posted 3 days ago.
Eric,
I'm just saying he's not even one of those "long shot" options. He's essentially a Yankee for life.
Quote:
In comment 16315735 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
completely confused as to what my "assumption" is?
-He has an opt out after 2024. The opt-out allows the Yankees to tack on an additional year to his current contract which would VOID the opt-out
In what scenario would the Yankees not want Cole back? And what scenario would they not want him back but the Mets and other teams WOULD want him? I truly can't come up with one.
dan take a breathe - you are arguing something nobody argued.
my initial post assumed that cole wouldnt be available. nobody suggested he would be available - the only reason he was mentioned is because he was listed on a FA list driectly from mlb.com that was posted 3 days ago.
Eric,
I'm just saying he's not even one of those "long shot" options. He's essentially a Yankee for life.
right we agree, which is why i didnt list him in those options even though mlb.com listed him as an opt out. that's all i was pointing out w/ the post about "assumption", we both made the same one.
More to get Alexis.
More to get Alexis.
I'd say there is nearly a 0% chance they would deal Diaz. The Reds were in on E-Rod just added a new 3b, they are trying to win. They have been one of the most aggressive teams this off-season.
Agreed - Hernandez and Imanaga would be a somewhat low-expectation risky offseason, kind of just holding or taping the plumbing line type of moves. It would reinforce despite what Stearns/Cohen said publicly, the private chatter, Mets know deck is stacked instead to retool into 2025 and 2026.
Maybe the Reds flip Diaz - who did not have a great year (comparatively spoeaking0 to the Mets and get Clase. Diaz probably/possibly cool being a set up guy for his big brother.
Or if that's even true I'd like to see the Mets pursue Clase if he'd be comfortable as a set up guy.
I have no idea why CLE would be interested in moving Clase other than maybe they don't expect to contend and don't feel a closer is a huge need.
if that's true and CLE is sellers - go big and get Clase (who was also not lights out in 2023 compared to 2022) and add in Jose Ramirez.
Diaz with 4 years left on his contract. I find it hard to believe either one will be Mets in 2024.
Maybe the Reds flip Diaz - who did not have a great year (comparatively spoeaking0 to the Mets and get Clase. Diaz probably/possibly cool being a set up guy for his big brother.
Or if that's even true I'd like to see the Mets pursue Clase if he'd be comfortable as a set up guy.
I have no idea why CLE would be interested in moving Clase other than maybe they don't expect to contend and don't feel a closer is a huge need.
if that's true and CLE is sellers - go big and get Clase (who was also not lights out in 2023 compared to 2022) and add in Jose Ramirez.
Jose Ramirez has a full no trade and said he intends to spend the rest of his career in Cleveland (he took far less than market value). No indication they are sellers anyway.
@ajflax
Mark reports the Nats plan to play Senzel primarily at third... not exactly an inspiring acquisition. More in the Dom Smith vein (bad player who's shown flashes) than the Jeimer Candelario one (good player who had a down year).
"I tried to talk him out of it," Nieves said. "Everyone tried to talk him out of it."
Ramirez, however, longed for stability.
"That was my motivation," Ramirez said in Spanish, "to stay here."
@jonmorosi
The Giants and Padres are active on center fielders, including free agent Harrison Bader.
Jung-Hoo Lee is of interest to both clubs. Credit to @JonHeyman
for his reporting on Lee's robust market.
@MLBNetwork
the rest of the options are pretty flat but there are plenty of choices that should be economically reasonable whether they prioritize run prevention or more of a bat first player. get waiting on yamamoto in the pitching market but having a hard time figuring out why they wouldnt be aggressive on bat in the next few days once ohtani officially comes off the board.
the rest of the options are pretty flat but there are plenty of choices that should be economically reasonable whether they prioritize run prevention or more of a bat first player. get waiting on yamamoto in the pitching market but having a hard time figuring out why they wouldnt be aggressive on bat in the next few days once ohtani officially comes off the board.
Trade market?
Reports were they were in on Verdugo right?
Quote:
i assume there was some small hold up by soto/ohtani even if they were both long shots. soto is traded ohtani seemingly down to a final 2.
the rest of the options are pretty flat but there are plenty of choices that should be economically reasonable whether they prioritize run prevention or more of a bat first player. get waiting on yamamoto in the pitching market but having a hard time figuring out why they wouldnt be aggressive on bat in the next few days once ohtani officially comes off the board.
Trade market?
Reports were they were in on Verdugo right?
maybe, their trade market comments/rumors seem contradictory to me (they aren't interested in rentals, but also not looking to trade a ton of prospects, which is what non-rentals will cost).
here's the list of next years free agents/rentals from the same mlb.com link:
Second base: Jose Altuve, Gleyber Torres, Brandon Lowe (club option), Ha-Seong Kim (mutual option), Wilmer Flores (player option/club option), Jorge Polanco (club option), Brandon Drury
Third base: Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suárez (club option), J.D. Davis, Yoán Moncada (club option)
Shortstop: Willy Adames, Miguel Rojas (club option), Paul Dejong, Garrett Hampson, Joey Wendle
Outfield: Juan Soto, Alex Verdugo, Michael Conforto, Tyler O’Neill, Anthony Santander, Max Kepler, Mark Canha, Mitch Haniger (opt-out), Manuel Margot (mutual option), Charlie Blackmon, Austin Meadows
Designated hitter: Eloy Jiménez (club option), Marcell Ozuna (club option), Daniel Vogelbach, Matt Carpenter
seems unlikely they'd be shopping for 1b/2b/3b/ss given their comments about 3b.
so again we arent talking about a huge universe of possibilities for an OF/DH addition. this year's FA class has better names other than Soto. Maybe there's a trade target we arent thinking of.
i would imagine they would be fine with a 1 year option to leave open the possibility of a soto pursuit next year, which verdugo may have been, but even if they went multi-year with a LF, RF could very easily be open next year anyway. though they might not want to lock nimmo in CF.
@timbhealey
·
8s
The expectation remains MLB will finish its Billy Eppler/Mets investigation by the end of the year.
So, any time in next two weeks or so. (League office basically shuts down for Christmas & New Year’s.)
Stearns said he didn’t know if a potential punishment would impact Mets.
right as have the backup CF types + Lee. whichever way(s) they decide to go, the options are there they just need to pull the trigger on one.
the WM have now come and gone,
soto trade (at a reasonable price) has come and gone,
ohtani about to be gone.
senzel gone!
unless they just dont have any preference and are waiting out whoever becomes the best bargain.
id have no problem signing him for the glove and a solid semi-regular role, but his power last year was almost definitely a fluke (which he's done before).
his barrel% was 2x mlb average (and 2x his prior 2 years, carrer average) and all his other offensive numbers were way below. dont want to oversimplify, but in total he barreled 31 balls where the prior 2 seasons he was in the low 20's so we are probably talking about 10 extra swings he fortunately barreled that he is unlikely reproduce.
(barrels always seem to highly correlate w/ xbh)
if the contract is right i would be good with him making 100 starts in center and late game sub, as many as possible vs lefties (figure that is about 40 starts), and taking a lot of innings off nimmo. against righties maybe that gets stewart into LF and nimmo in CF.
margot's career splits vs lefties are better, so depending on the details of his 2025 "mutual option" i think that's a similar level option. his career ops vs lefties is 760 with better contact and slightly lesser power. a few years younger. taylor better D.
Mets’ smaller moves in bullpen reveal larger focus - ( New Window )
I like reading Stearns doesn't think they necessarily need to carry 2 lefties.
Diversity.
The homogeneity of New York’s relievers was an issue in 2023, with the Mets tossing out right-hander after right-hander, all of them with fastballs in the mid-90s and similar-looking sliders.
And with Díaz out for the season, the reliever corps lacked high-velocity arms. Mets relievers threw a grand total of four fastballs as hard as 98 mph last season. Philadelphia Phillies relievers threw 1,195 such fastballs.
“I think there’s a desire to have a diversity of looks and stuff out of relievers,” Stearns said. “Velocity is a part of that. Velocity is not the entire package there. I’d like to have a couple of guys who can really bring it out of the pen. I’d also like to have some different looks.”
I like reading Stearns doesn't think they necessarily need to carry 2 lefties.
100% - generally if they are getting paid the same they are the same level. we need to hope stearns is better at finding good outcomes.
they need at least 1 and possibly 2 high end hard throwing options other than diaz, so i agree they cant just do things differently they also have to have quality.
i think the diversity argument gives you a better chance of having success with the low-end options though, since generally you dont find cheap high velocity options that havent already been thoroughly proven to suck (like say miguel castro).
my plan A bp this offseason would probably be something like adding a high velocity type like hicks with an experienced guy like robertson who has good control gets ground balls has a bunch of different pitches.
robertson's problems 2nd half the last 2 year were when he lost his control, probably from overuse in role that were too high leverage for him at this point. not an ideal signing but probably best of what's out there. not sure hicks is gettable as a non-setup man but id try. lopez probably would have been my first choice. maybe yariel rodriguez is another option.
In the courtship process, the Padres could possess both a special advantage and unique motivation. Ha-Seong Kim and Lee are former teammates and best friends. Meanwhile, signing Lee might aid the Padres’ interest in potentially extending Kim in the next 11 months, before the Gold Glove-winning infielder becomes eligible for free agency. (Based on his growing history of big-league success, Kim is almost certain to decline his mutual option for 2025.)"
Because it's disrespectful to a fellow countryman to sign with the same team?
But the Padres have the advantage because "Ha-Seong Kim and Lee are former teammates and best friends."
Because it's disrespectful to a fellow countryman to sign with the same team?
But the Padres have the advantage because "Ha-Seong Kim and Lee are former teammates and best friends."
Shecky.. you know this but... Japan and Korea are 2 different countries and signing to play with your actual (assuming this is true) best friend surely trumps other concerns.
Mahle is said to be targeting mid-season. We'll see how realistic that is but guaranteeing him 2024 money + a team option (and buyout) would give him less incentive to rush back and essentially free money in his pocket to rehab.
You think they dug deep into this? And the relationship? etc? Come on lol. I find it hysterical.
You think they dug deep into this? And the relationship? etc? Come on lol. I find it hysterical.
Honestly? No. They have spoke openly about how close they are. Again, Japan also isn't Korea. For all we know there is no such resistance to playing with other Korean players. In fact, there most likely isn't one of you believe the Padres are viewed as favorites for Lee. As for the Japanese player stuff, Joel Wolfe thought enough of it to say that wasn't the case with Yamamoto so at very minimum, he didn't scoff at the suggestion, he would have ignored it if it was absurd.
Kim: First of all, he’s a great player. He’s got all the tools to become successful in the major leagues. I believe that. And secondly, I would love to have him as my teammate. Because the adjustment period, I’ve gone through it. I’ve been through it. I have the experience so that I can help him. I can be a huge help for him so that he can focus on baseball instead of taking time adjusting to other stuff. So yeah, it would be awesome to be playing together in the big leagues."
So no, I don't see suggesting having Kim on the Padres "helping" them is hypocritical at all.
Source: Teoscar Hernández has received calls from: Boston Red Sox, Anaheim, Toronto Blue Jays, Boston the most insistent, but they all say that they are first looking for pitching.
(and yes, I noticed he called them Anaheim and not LA, not sure that means he's a BSer)
You think they dug deep into this? And the relationship? etc? Come on lol. I find it hysterical.
I was actually talking about this with a co-worker the other day. We were talking about how we have seen reports that both:
1. Japanese players don't like to be together on the same MLB team; and
2. X or Y team has an advantage in signing A or B Japanese player because there is already a Japanese player on the team
Scouting Report: Uwasawa is a finesse righthander who relies on command and changing speeds. His fastball sits just 89-91 mph and tops out at 93, but he effectively locates it on the edges of the strike zone to avoid hard contact. His most-used secondary is a vertical 80-82 mph slider with decent depth, while his mid-80s splitter with diving action is an average pitch he leans on to get outs. He also mixes in a looping, below-average mid-70s curveball, below-average 85-88 mph cutter and fringy 80-82 mph changeup. Uwasawa mostly relies on keeping hitters guessing with his deep arsenal and inducing soft contact. He doesn’t miss many bats and averaged just 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings last year. He is a good athlete with a fluid delivery and clean arm action and has above-average control.
The Future: Uwasawa’s lack of stuff will be tested in MLB. He projects to be a low-end No. 5 or depth starter who relies on hitting his spots to be effective.
Fastball: 40. Curveball: 40. Slider: 45. Cutter: 40. Splitter: 50. Changeup: 45. Control: 55
@bekavac07
Asked @JonHeyman
about Arozarena and the Mets possibly
He answered: he doesnt see the Mets spending like that on a OF and that Michael Taylor would be a fit.
He did say Randy Arozarena would obviously be better
Tonkin spent the first five seasons of his MLB career with the Twins, where he never made much of an impression, producing exactly 0.0 WAR in 141 games. Finally, after his disappointing age-27 season in 2017, the Twins sold his contract to the Nippon-Ham Fighters of NPB. While he wasn’t much of a replacement for Shohei Ohtani, who the Fighters lost to MLB that same year, the righty was a solid reliever during the 2018 season, pitching to a 3.71 ERA in 53 games and collecting 12 saves. He chose to come back stateside in 2019, and he would spend the next several years bouncing around between the minor leagues, the Atlantic League, and the Mexican League before finally making his way back to the majors with the Braves in 2023. He spent the full season on the big league roster and served as manager Brian Snitker’s go-to long man, finishing second among NL relievers in innings pitched and recording more than three outs in two-thirds of his appearances.
While his 4.28 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 0.1 WAR hardly stand out, especially given the low-leverage spots in which he was deployed, every team could use a near-replacement-level pitcher who can throw that many innings out of the bullpen. After all, there’s a reason Tonkin stuck on the roster all year for a Braves team with a top-five bullpen in the NL. What’s more, the pitch modeling data underscores him as someone to keep an eye on next season. PitchingBot was impressed with his command, Stuff+ liked his stuff, and both modeling systems were high on his sinker, his primary pitch.
so here's a question. it is your $385m to spend. which are you taking?
#1 -
yamamoto (10x330m + $55m posting fee)
#2 -
blake snell (8x200)
jordan montgomery (6x150)
seth lugo (3x35)
if you want you can add years/defer payments and structure option 2 so the AAVs each season are the same.
so here's a question. it is your $385m to spend. which are you taking?
#1 -
yamamoto (10x330m + $55m posting fee)
#2 -
blake snell (8x200)
jordan montgomery (6x150)
seth lugo (3x35)
if you want you can add years/defer payments and structure option 2 so the AAVs each season are the same.
Posting fee is completely Cohen's problem so I'm not sure it's even relevant. Doesn't count against the luxury tax so the 10 for 330 is really the only "baseball money" involved with Yamamoto. What should we care if Steve Cohen has to pay a posting fee?
timdierkes
@timdierkes
This might be me making two bad Bellinger predictions in one offseason, but here goes.
I think Boras may not be inclined to accept a sub-200 long-term offer for Belli.
I could see him pivoting to the model of Correa’s post-lockout deal.
Quote:
in the last few months post-max/jdg/jv we've all talked about the value of aces in mlb today since injuries are so common.
so here's a question. it is your $385m to spend. which are you taking?
#1 -
yamamoto (10x330m + $55m posting fee)
#2 -
blake snell (8x200)
jordan montgomery (6x150)
seth lugo (3x35)
if you want you can add years/defer payments and structure option 2 so the AAVs each season are the same.
Posting fee is completely Cohen's problem so I'm not sure it's even relevant. Doesn't count against the luxury tax so the 10 for 330 is really the only "baseball money" involved with Yamamoto. What should we care if Steve Cohen has to pay a posting fee?
it's an add on fee that's still money spent so how is it different than luxury taxes. what should we care if cohen has to pay luxury taxes?
both are cost of doing business except the posting fee is fixed and predicting the luxury tax cost over a decade is impossible because who knows what thresholds they are in and by how much? that is highly dynamic.
if you want to revise down the amount in column 2 to include luxury taxes that would paid on a comparable amount to a posting fee to make it more apples to apples, and we go worst case with them being in the cohen tax, that is a 50% tax + 60% surcharge. so you could spend 20m above yamamoto's deal on a player and the total amount would be 42m with 22m of taxes (50%=10m+60%=12m). so worst case you are knocking out lugo's deal.
Blake Snell for 8 years alone sounds like a horrendous gamble. Stuff over command guy who led the league in walks in a CY season from 31-38? A guy never known for pitching a bunch of innings? Even this season 5.6 innings per start, last season 5.3, 2021 4.74. Yeah that's a very hard pass from me on 8 years.
if you added $53m to their 2025 spotrac has their luxury tax payroll right around $200m which is $41m below the 2025 CBT.
this may not seem like the most likely scenario right now but imagine vientos has some form of a breakout and they decide to trade alonso at the 2024 deadline because they have a cheap replacement in-house? they will have their top 3 SP under contract, so presumably the decision could be made easier with some combo of peterson, vasil, megill, stepping up in 2024 to fill other sp slots cheaply as well.
my best guess as to why they havent gotten more aggressive in other parts of the market yet (OF/RP) is because they dont want to take that option off the table for themselves.
31-32-33-34-35-36-37-38
Yamamoto on a 10 year deal
25-26-27-28-29-30-31-32-33-34
Very realistic shot Yamamoto signs another contract after this one (even if he doesn't opt out)
Snell 35-38 seasons... how many SP 35 or older posted 2+ fWAR this season? That would be 3. Verlander, Morton, Gibson.
36? 2. Verlander/Morton
Keith Law
I think 8 years is an outrageous gamble on Blake Snell given all of these factors.
Yamamoto cause he is so young it's worth the gamble but you are also paying a heavy premium for it.
Still surprised Erod only got 4 years and 20 per.
from fangraphs top 50 FA:
Yamamoto zips proj 3.7 fwar (no steamer)
Snell steamer 3.2 fwar (7.7 fwar last 2 years)
Monty steamer 3.2 fwar (7 fwar last 2 years)
3.7fwar is a great projection btw, that would be 10th best in steamer, just ahead of zac gallen and .1 behind corbin burnes.
3.2 fwar is almost same projection as senga (3.3).
if there ends up enough $ leftover to add in lugo too he's projected at 2.2 fwar.
the aging curves are almost certain to lean towards yamamaoto being more productive in the 2nd half of the deals but in the first 2-4 years im pretty sure the value is more likely leaning to the other side. and by the midpoint of the deals i think you'd hope thats enough time to be producing cheap arms from the system.
Yamamoto cause he is so young it's worth the gamble but you are also paying a heavy premium for it.
Still surprised Erod only got 4 years and 20 per.
E-Rod can make as much as 5 for 100 with the vested option but yeah, that was a nice deal. Apparently, some teams were turned off by what went on the past 2 seasons. 2022 taking a leave to deal with whatever was going on with his marriage, and 2023 blocking a trade to the Dodgers. The second part doesn't seem particularly fair, as team sources told Ken Rosenthal E-Rod wanted an extra year added to his deal, which was his right to waive a NTC, but I guess some teams saw that as him not being a "competitor".
because yamamoto individually is by far the most appealing player and it is almost certainly possible for them to get yamamoto PLUS another good SP. that could be someone more at an imanaga price but who knows, maybe even monty?
they are very likely going for the best of both worlds, not my hypothetical which is forcing a choice.
The fact the Mets are targeting 1 year contracts sure suggests to me that while they aren't tanking at all, they too agree with this, as such tack on a year to any player you add on multi year deals.
I maintain, the best thing the Mets can do this year is let the kids play, add players on short term deals that fill gaps they don't have internally, and shoot your shot on some high upside players (I personally like O'Neill at the right price, but guys like that)... and hope for Yamamoto.
The fact the Mets are targeting 1 year contracts sure suggests to me that while they aren't tanking at all, they too agree with this, as such tack on a year to any player you add on multi year deals.
I maintain, the best thing the Mets can do this year is let the kids play, add players on short term deals that fill gaps they don't have internally, and shoot your shot on some high upside players (I personally like O'Neill at the right price, but guys like that)... and hope for Yamamoto.
i think that's what they are doing with 1 exception - starting pitching.
as i posted earlier, look at next year's SP market. Burnes is maybe the only guy better than the non-Yamamoto guys this year.
they have no pitchers under contract beyond 2025. almost literally 0.
they need to come out of this offseason with at least 1 longer term option even if yamamoto turns them down. otherwise they are going to have more innings than they can fill with quality options next year too.
one of the reporters posted a yankees/hicks rumor earlier today, but seemed to imply that would be more likely if they miss on yamamoto. dont remember who.
of what's left that fits (i agree hicks may not fit if he wants to close), yariel rodriguez is interesting. they have been on all the foreign league players and he fits the fedde profile where the price could make him an interesting flex 5b starter or rp. also just turns 27 in march.
Quote:
isn't quite as good as you'd think given the eye popping stuff (mostly because his command comes and goes) and he also has a good K rate but it's also not what you'd expect sitting upper 90's (more of a brute force type vs. one that gets hitters to chase) but he also very rarely gives up HR's and in general limits hard contact. I don't see the Mets pursuing him (because again, the "claim" is he wants to close) but I wouldn't hate him on a 3 year deal setting up Diaz.
of what's left that fits (i agree hicks may not fit if he wants to close), yariel rodriguez is interesting. they have been on all the foreign league players and he fits the fedde profile where the price could make him an interesting flex 5b starter or rp. also just turns 27 in march.
BA suspected somebody would give him a shot to start but that he’s probably better suited in the BP. Maybe a team like the Mets could do what Atlanta is doing with Lopez and allow him a chance to win a rotation spot in ST with the understanding that if he didn’t he’d be moved to the BP. Find it hard to believe the Mets will have 5-6 SP so good they can’t give him that opportunity.
Quote:
In comment 16315991 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
isn't quite as good as you'd think given the eye popping stuff (mostly because his command comes and goes) and he also has a good K rate but it's also not what you'd expect sitting upper 90's (more of a brute force type vs. one that gets hitters to chase) but he also very rarely gives up HR's and in general limits hard contact. I don't see the Mets pursuing him (because again, the "claim" is he wants to close) but I wouldn't hate him on a 3 year deal setting up Diaz.
of what's left that fits (i agree hicks may not fit if he wants to close), yariel rodriguez is interesting. they have been on all the foreign league players and he fits the fedde profile where the price could make him an interesting flex 5b starter or rp. also just turns 27 in march.
BA suspected somebody would give him a shot to start but that he’s probably better suited in the BP. Maybe a team like the Mets could do what Atlanta is doing with Lopez and allow him a chance to win a rotation spot in ST with the understanding that if he didn’t he’d be moved to the BP. Find it hard to believe the Mets will have 5-6 SP so good they can’t give him that opportunity.
exactly - sounds like that's what they were trying to do with fedde, except cheaper price point. not quite sure why they werent willing to do go a bit above that for lopez or rodriguez since they are younger and higher end arms, could be they just liked fedde more.
Tim Healey! Sorry
Didn't Shecky say otherwise?
this may sound far fetched, and i think it probably is given how much $ they will all make collectively, but with the yamamoto and ohtani timelines seeming like they may overlap and with many of the same teams in, i have kind of wondered about that. imanaga also in there with a lot of the same teams.
not saying they all sign together or that if they did it would be the mets, no idea of any of their relationships, but i do wonder if teaming up is something any combo are considering not unlike the big 3 w/ miami heat. think they were all on team japan at wbc.
even if there's a .00000000001% chance ohtani/yamamoto might want to play together, id understand not wanting to add anyone who could interfere with the DH at bats.
Quote:
Have not approached Alonso about an extension this offseason per Tim Britton
Didn't Shecky say otherwise?
Boras said otherwise lol.
SNY
@SNYtv
·
Dec 6
"I spoke to David, we told him we're all ears"
Scott Boras on extension talks with Pete Alonso:
https://x.com/SNYtv/status/1732455158523556009?s=20 - ( New Window )
Only good year in his career was 2022. Don't really like it.
The sides have not discussed at all this offseason the possibility of a long-term deal that would keep Alonso in Queens, a source with knowledge of the situation said. And it’s not clear whether the Mets plan to engage him on that subject.
@MarinoMLB
·
11m
Report here that Jorge Lopez signing with the Mets. Haven’t asked around about it, so not entirely sure if it’s accurate. Coming off a rough 2023.
Quote:
Language site reporting the Mets have signed Jorge Lopez
Only good year in his career was 2022. Don't really like it.
Yeah what was he doing in 2022? lol
Link - ( New Window )
“I'm not going to comment on any specific player, trade interest,” Stearns said. “I'll just reiterate Pete's a very good player and I expect him to be a Met on Opening Day.”
Boras said: “I spoke to David. We just told him we’re all ears. If he wanted to talk to us about anything, let us know.”
Link - ( New Window )
I've said this the past three years.
Quote:
Language site reporting the Mets have signed Jorge Lopez
Only good year in his career was 2022. Don't really like it.
the 1 good year was his first converting to bp fulltime and the FB played up. went from 94/95 to 96/97. homers went way down. vertical movement on all pitches increased.
velocity remained but movement decreased, so the homers went way back up in 2023. exit velo and hh% back up in 2023. went from 58% groundballs in 2022 to 48% in 2023.
5 pitch reliever with 90th percentile velocity. so some stuff to work with.
i think its sort of semantics, i think the reporting was the mets asked boras if they'd be open to talking extensions (not that they specifically presented or negotiated an extension).
with all the FA stuff going on now there's no reason to add 1 extra negotiation that could easily happen later in the offseason after they know what the future payrolls look like with whatever moves they make (last year mcneil extension was mid-january, obviously common to also hammer out in ST like they did with JDG several years ago and Lindor his first year).
I've said this the past three years.
I’d be fine with it if they got a great offer.
Quote:
Do we think the Mets are 100% unequivocally out?
this may sound far fetched, and i think it probably is given how much $ they will all make collectively, but with the yamamoto and ohtani timelines seeming like they may overlap and with many of the same teams in, i have kind of wondered about that. imanaga also in there with a lot of the same teams.
not saying they all sign together or that if they did it would be the mets, no idea of any of their relationships, but i do wonder if teaming up is something any combo are considering not unlike the big 3 w/ miami heat. think they were all on team japan at wbc.
even if there's a .00000000001% chance ohtani/yamamoto might want to play together, id understand not wanting to add anyone who could interfere with the DH at bats.
This is an interesting thought. A pipe dream I’m sure but for me, it does beg the question. What do these Japanese ballplayers really look for in this process of signing with an MLB team?
The most logical thought is that they’d want to stay out West for geographic location to home. We’ve heard conflicting reports on the “respect” factor i.e. joining a team with an already established Japanese player, but also how YY is supposed to live the fact that Matsui and Tanaka played with the Yanks and the former won a World Series there. I have wondered before if YY and Ohtani would want to play together or if either would be drawn to the Mets because Senga “arrived” on the scene last year. Ohtani’s interest in Toronto of all places, especially over NY supposedly has me confused.
To be clear, it’s rest
Quote:
In comment 16316049 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Do we think the Mets are 100% unequivocally out?
this may sound far fetched, and i think it probably is given how much $ they will all make collectively, but with the yamamoto and ohtani timelines seeming like they may overlap and with many of the same teams in, i have kind of wondered about that. imanaga also in there with a lot of the same teams.
not saying they all sign together or that if they did it would be the mets, no idea of any of their relationships, but i do wonder if teaming up is something any combo are considering not unlike the big 3 w/ miami heat. think they were all on team japan at wbc.
even if there's a .00000000001% chance ohtani/yamamoto might want to play together, id understand not wanting to add anyone who could interfere with the DH at bats.
This is an interesting thought. A pipe dream I’m sure but for me, it does beg the question. What do these Japanese ballplayers really look for in this process of signing with an MLB team?
The most logical thought is that they’d want to stay out West for geographic location to home. We’ve heard conflicting reports on the “respect” factor i.e. joining a team with an already established Japanese player, but also how YY is supposed to live the fact that Matsui and Tanaka played with the Yanks and the former won a World Series there. I have wondered before if YY and Ohtani would want to play together or if either would be drawn to the Mets because Senga “arrived” on the scene last year. Ohtani’s interest in Toronto of all places, especially over NY supposedly has me confused.
i think like american players every player is different and the market of teams interested in (and the $ being offered) has a major impact.
the west coast being closer is an obvious benefit but thats often true of american players too. remember max scherzers house in florida was close to psl? id imagine convenience is cross-cultural.
i dont remember a year with so many high profile players from the same national team around the same ages, so a 'dream team' type thing has never really been a possibility before. if they are considering the same teams independent of each other, it kind of only makes sense they'd check in with each other if they have relationships?
Standing outside the Twins clubhouse Tuesday morning, Jorge López broke into a smile as he started to explain what it meant to return to the bullpen.
López spent 17 days on the injured list for a mental health break. He was activated from the IL Tuesday, a collective decision made by López, the medical staff and front office staff, and pitched in the ninth inning in the team's 9-3 win.
During the past two weeks, López worked with a therapist, which he said he will continue to do. When he struggled before the mental break, he had trouble controlling his emotions and felt like things snowballed on him. He punched a water cooler after an outing in Houston when he didn't record an out.
https://www.startribune.com/jorge-lopez-returns-to-twins-bullpen-after-mental-health-break-cole-sands-jordan-balazovic/600287398/#:~:text=During%20the%20past%20two%20weeks,didn't%20record%20an%20out
and a fan blog overviewing his stuff:
So why should we believe Lopez will turn things around? He was brilliant in April but faltered in May and June, and it seemed like his season was declining, as was his stuff. Two things make me optimistic about Jorge Lopez: pitch usage and Stuff+ numbers.
It was written about before on Twins Daily, but Jorge Lopez had been throwing an unusual amount of four-seam fastballs this season, 20.4% of his pitches after only using it 4.5% of the time last year. Hitters are currently hitting .438 with a .875 SLG against his four-seam fastball. While 89 pitches might seem too small of a sample for judgment, Lopez's four-seam has never performed well in any season. I think part of the successful transition to the bullpen was lowering the pitch's usage.
Lopez also significantly increased his slider usage from 10.7% in 2022 to 20.6% this year. While not as bad as his four-seamer, the pitch still hasn't garnered quality results. Of pitchers with at least ten plate appearances against the pitch, Lopez's slider ranks 272nd out of 358 pitchers in xwOBA at .345 and 236th out of 358 in whiff% at 29.2%. Not great.
However, Jorge Lopez's curveball in the same qualifier ranks 69th out of 198 pitchers in xwOBA at .252 and 28th out of 198 in whiff% at 41.4%. His curve has also generated a .203 xBA and .333 xSLG, in addition to its excellent swing and miss capability. Fewer four-seam fastballs and sliders with more sinkers and curveballs could help Lopez regain some form.
Even without adjusting his pitch distribution, I still believe in Jorge Lopez's improvement this season; as mentioned before, Lopez rates highly in Stuff+. If you are unfamiliar with Stuff+, it essentially measures the characteristics of a pitch, its speed, vertical and horizontal movement, release, spin rate/efficiency, etc. The league average for Stuff+ is 100. I will link an article by Owen McGrattan on Fangraphs that explains Stuff+ and how it can be used in more detail. It also details how stuff+ can be more predictive than standard metrics like ERA, K%-BB%, RA/9 and when a sample size becomes large enough to use.
Back to Lopez, among qualified relievers on Fangraphs, his 114 Stuff+ ranks tied for 47th out of 170 relievers. This doesn't guarantee above-league-average production from Lopez. Still, it certainly indicates that a very projectable metric has Lopez in a similar Stuff+ range as other elite relievers such as Devin Williams (118 Stuff+), Brusdar Graterol (116 Stuff+), and Michael King (113 Stuff+).
Stuff+ also helps explain why the Twins wanted to experiment with a four-seam fastball and slider. Lopez's four-seam grades at 106 Stuff+ better than his sinker at 103 Stuff+, and his slider grades at 138 Stuff+ higher than his curveball at 127 Stuff+. While current results have not been as hoped, the reasoning for trying makes sense.
https://twinsdaily.com/news-rumors/minnesota-twins/i-believe-in-jorge-lopez-r14558/ - ( New Window )
@JeffPassan
·
Right-handed reliever Jorge López and the New York Mets are in agreement on a one-year, $2 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Lopez, 30, pitched for three teams last season and with a combined 5.13 ERA. He was great in 2022, with a 2.53 ERA and solid FIP.
@crosarosa
was on it.
Im hoping he's closer to '22 Lopez and last year was just a tough year, though '22 does look like a statistical aberration. For $2 million it's worth a shot
Why do you dislike Lindor so much? Seems like a good teammate (even with the McNeil dust-up) and one of the best trades/signings the best have made since Beltran.
Quote:
Loser Lindor has invited Vientos and Baty to PR to work out with him (specifically on defense)
Why do you dislike Lindor so much? Seems like a good teammate (even with the McNeil dust-up) and one of the best trades/signings the best have made since Beltran.
Your sarcasm detector isn't working this morning. Dan mocks the Lindor critics
Quote:
In comment 16316115 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Loser Lindor has invited Vientos and Baty to PR to work out with him (specifically on defense)
Why do you dislike Lindor so much? Seems like a good teammate (even with the McNeil dust-up) and one of the best trades/signings the best have made since Beltran.
Your sarcasm detector isn't working this morning. Dan mocks the Lindor critics
my bad. I didn't realize there were Lindor critics but other than here and twitter I don't seek out much Mets content and I don't really see it much. Seems like DMM's sarcasm perpetuates it more than it may happen.
unless of course I just miss it (which is obviously possible).
Im hoping he's closer to '22 Lopez and last year was just a tough year, though '22 does look like a statistical aberration. For $2 million it's worth a shot
That was great of the Twins and Marlins to do. Good to see some humanity amidst the mess that can be professional sports. I wish his son a complete and speedy recovery.
-Sammon confirms the Mets have not spoken to Alonso about an extension but that it wasn’t unusual at this point in the off-season
Even with the "subpar" 2021 you can make a case Lindor has been the best all around SS in all of baseball for the combined three seasons he's been a Met. Maybe Turner I can concede? Who else could you make a case has been better?
I rarely see criticism but again, I don't view as much Mets content as some of you.
Quote:
and Rosario and Gimenez did well, so I think there were a lot of critics early on. I don't know that I hear much anymore. Turned out to be an excellent trade for the Mets. Rosario looks like nothing much, Gimenez has come back down to earth a bit (though I still like him), and Wolf and Greene have not turned out to be much to my knowledge (though I have admittedly not looked them up lately)
Even with the "subpar" 2021 you can make a case Lindor has been the best all around SS in all of baseball for the combined three seasons he's been a Met. Maybe Turner I can concede? Who else could you make a case has been better?
I rarely see criticism but again, I don't view as much Mets content as some of you.
There remains consistent Lindor criticism on Twitter. Obviously less than before but far more than you’d expect considering how he’s played
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet
Link - ( New Window )
@JeffPassan
on Yoshinobu Yamamoto:
"I think Yamamoto wants to get paid. Steve Cohen flew all the way to Japan to see him, private jet all the way to the other side of the world. If he is willing to do that, I think that says a lot about how he feels about Yamamoto. They didn't get Soto, they are not going to get Ohtani...they want Yamamoto pretty badly."
I like reading the part about YY wanting the cash! We have more of that than anyone. Hopefully that’s the deciding factor.
As of now, people involved in the free agency believe that Yamamoto will sign with a team shortly before Christmas.
There are many jobs in baseball that are awesome. This guy's gig is definitely sweet. As is bullpen catcher!
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet Link - ( New Window )
3 things can be taken by that:
1. Twitter is a cesspool
2. NY fans can be awful
3. People underestimate how difficult hitting a baseball is
Quote:
Have not approached Alonso about an extension this offseason per Tim Britton
Didn't Shecky say otherwise?
It’s all a matter of choice of words lol. They haven’t talked contracts and numbers. But they made a massive push last week to see if they can resign him.
And it’s been nothing but crickets since. Except Stearns concerning comments about not interested in guys that won’t help beyond 2024.
I used to lose at connect four a lot as a kid. But connecting those dots, are at least a bit concerning. Especially with zero other info to go by.
IMO it’s either a massive bluff being played. Or they really do think they are better off moving a year early rather than a year or two late. And I’ve been open about that since mid summer, that’s how they seemed to lean. Was hoping Stearns changed that.
I’m 100% walking blind here, with only one piece of info in the past ten days.
Quote:
Mets flew over Hiro Fujiwara (Senga’s translator) to meet with Yamamoto.. that guy has a pretty sweet job doesn’t he?
There are many jobs in baseball that are awesome. This guy's gig is definitely sweet. As is bullpen catcher!
The Mets have had the same bullpen catcher for 24 years (Dave Racaniello). His dad knew Bobby V and introduced the 2 at a game. The Mets regular bullpen catcher couldn’t get to the game and Valentine had heard Racaniello caught in community college. The rest is history… 24! Years later
Yeah, I had it about $60 million a year. So 10 years, $600 million sounds about right.
If he is back pitching, the bulk of his career and healthy, that's a bargain. A couple years ago, I saw comparisons to where he was about Scherzer on the mound and Stanton (pre-falling off the face of the earth) at bat.
Problem is he is just a DH this year. Very risky contract obviously
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet Link - ( New Window )
I see, twitter, like most social media sites is a cesspool, not advising you on on anything, but I don't use it as a barometer of reality. Maybe I'm wrong. I hope not.
Im hoping he's closer to '22 Lopez and last year was just a tough year, though '22 does look like a statistical aberration. For $2 million it's worth a shot
didnt remember that either good stuff kd. really rooting for lopez to get back to that first half '22 form.
Miami Marlins: Jorge Lopez's source of motivation — his son - ( New Window )
Austin Adams is one to watch , Andre Scrubb impressed scouts this winter. Wouldn’t bet on any of them but also potentially some BP depth there
same as met fans said beltran was overrated a lot of the time he was here.
and probably not so much different from thinking alonso is overrated.
there will be yankee fans who call soto overrated too.
ny tends to attract more fans with unreasonable expectations. or maybe not more than any other place but more willing to be more vocal about it.
same as met fans said beltran was overrated a lot of the time he was here.
and probably not so much different from thinking alonso is overrated.
there will be yankee fans who call soto overrated too.
ny tends to attract more fans with unreasonable expectations. or maybe not more than any other place but more willing to be more vocal about it.
Yep. I can't believe some of the crap Yankee fans are saying about Soto. A lot of them get it, but there is a big enough contingent that is on the "we gave up too many players for a rental that hit .260" kick. (And as you stated, Mets fans can be the same)
Soto just turned 25, less than a year older than when Judge made his MLB debut. About five full seasons. 160 HR, more BB than K, lifetime .946 OPS, 28.6 career WAR, HOF trajectory. And the Yankees get him with the headliner being a Lugo type.
Quote:
Under the tweet from SNY about Lindor working out with Vientos
1 “ Says the guy who bats .220 all year and gets little hot finishes .254”
2. I'd love someone to teach some offensive consistency to Lindor too. Throw in some situational hitting lessons too.
3. “Offensive consistency” from Lindor is hilarious
Linked below is the tweet Link - ( New Window )
3 things can be taken by that:
1. Twitter is a cesspool
2. NY fans can be awful
3. People underestimate how difficult hitting a baseball is
All of the above. I remember when some Mets fans booed Piazza, after we traded for him, but before we signed him long term. I was afraid he would say screw this place and sign elsewhere.
Pitching WAR is kind of funny, but Seaver was 35 before he had an fWAR as low as Alonso's highest fWAR (or close to it).
Completely different stratospheres as players.
Chris Davis is my comp for Alonso and Davis' best year is 3+ fWAR BETTER than Alonso's best and Davis fell of a f-ing cliff and his contract became an albatross.
Do I expect that drastic change from Alonso? no, but he's also not worth the risk and I do not see him aging well and trading him would certainly not be anything close to trading Seaver.
Teams do not need an Alonso to win - it's one of the biggest fallacies in baseball.
Quote:
every season since he's been here.
same as met fans said beltran was overrated a lot of the time he was here.
and probably not so much different from thinking alonso is overrated.
there will be yankee fans who call soto overrated too.
ny tends to attract more fans with unreasonable expectations. or maybe not more than any other place but more willing to be more vocal about it.
Yep. I can't believe some of the crap Yankee fans are saying about Soto. A lot of them get it, but there is a big enough contingent that is on the "we gave up too many players for a rental that hit .260" kick. (And as you stated, Mets fans can be the same)
Soto just turned 25, less than a year older than when Judge made his MLB debut. About five full seasons. 160 HR, more BB than K, lifetime .946 OPS, 28.6 career WAR, HOF trajectory. And the Yankees get him with the headliner being a Lugo type.
yep. just 2 years of a lugo type also. the weak return reading on that deal is:
2 years of a lugo-ish pitcher (just 1 extra year beyond soto)
a low velo 23 year old AA SP who got picked 10 picks after Tidwell (and smaller bonus)
a backup catcher not far off nido, except 5 yrs older
a couple mlb arms thrown in like drew smith/megill
if i were mets i think id have tried hard to beat that. whether or not yankees would have paid more or not idk but at minimum id have tried to drive that price up.
i find it really hard to believe 2 years of king is more valuable around the league than 6 of mauricio or 5 of baty.
I live outside of Philly.. coach baseball for 7-8 year olds. I ask these kids "who is your favorite player?".
I get 3 answers:
1) I don't know
2) Bryce Harper
3) Polar Bear
Popularity is NOT a reason to keep a player...but it does make it harder to trade him from a PR standpoint.
Trade him and win? No problem... If the Mets won the World Series in 1978, people would have forgiven it..
Trade him and lose? Seats will be emptier than with him.
Of course, if they don't believe in his on field performance being an asset to the team, then they should trade him regardless of the above... it's just a real, added complication when a player is so popular
Pitching WAR is kind of funny, but Seaver was 35 before he had an fWAR as low as Alonso's highest fWAR (or close to it).
Completely different stratospheres as players.
Chris Davis is my comp for Alonso and Davis' best year is 3+ fWAR BETTER than Alonso's best and Davis fell of a f-ing cliff and his contract became an albatross.
Do I expect that drastic change from Alonso? no, but he's also not worth the risk and I do not see him aging well and trading him would certainly not be anything close to trading Seaver.
Teams do not need an Alonso to win - it's one of the biggest fallacies in baseball.
Alonso has done a good job with hitting bad pitching (of which there is a lot of now in baseball though).
I think he's also ingratiated a fanbase emotionally that has had little to root for since 2016-2017 based on his personality and character.
But I'm not a fan of paying player like this on long term contract either. He's going to be a DH very very soon and doesn't hit for average or provide good OBP. This is not a player you sign for beyond a 4-5 yr deal. Maybe a 3 yr deal and control the annual cost on year to year deals.
As such, his contract shouldn't be exorbinant, no matter the demands (Matt Olson signed for 8 years, $168 million; $21 million a year.) Additionally, the value Alonso would return in a trade is not going to be that much. Would they even get a prospect the caliber of an L. Acuna or a Gilbert? I doubt it.
Therefore, power hitting 1B like Alonso are so undervalued these days that IMO, the Mets are better off keeping him. I liken it to Barkley. In football, RBs have become so undervalued that what the Giants would likely get in trade for him isn't worth it. They get a 4th rounder? Where they selected Eric Gray last year? The cap doesn't kill them, and he adds a lot to the team. I don't see the point in trading Barkley, and I don't see the point in trading Alonso.
And that is not even getting into the marketability of those two players.
Pitching WAR is kind of funny, but Seaver was 35 before he had an fWAR as low as Alonso's highest fWAR (or close to it).
Completely different stratospheres as players.
Chris Davis is my comp for Alonso and Davis' best year is 3+ fWAR BETTER than Alonso's best and Davis fell of a f-ing cliff and his contract became an albatross.
Do I expect that drastic change from Alonso? no, but he's also not worth the risk and I do not see him aging well and trading him would certainly not be anything close to trading Seaver.
Teams do not need an Alonso to win - it's one of the biggest fallacies in baseball.
we dont need to get side tracked on it but chris davis is a terrible comp for alonso, which is likely why you would think others overrate him.
alonso's career didn't start with 4 years, 300 games, and 1000 at bats as a negative war player.
in his first 5 full seasons through age 28 Pete is worth 14.5 war.
in his first 7 full seasons through age 28 Davis was worth 8 fwar.
pete has never posted 30%+ k-rates, which got worse over time not better. he has never seen his batting average and walk rates fluctuate by almost double year to year.
chris davis was a 1 hit wonder a lot closer to lucas duda than pete alonso. except duda may have actually been the more consistent player. davis' 30% k-rate was always 1 small step backwards away from being joey gallo, and at age 31 he took that step.
pete on the other had has been the most consistent run producer the mets have had since piazza and unlike piazza he can play every day. positional value aside his 133 career rc is the closest of any met to piazza's 140 (beltran and lindor both exactly 118).
he is the clean up hitter mets fans said they always wanted and never had, except i guess until we have him.
I'd take a Keith Hernandez or Jon Olrerud at 1B and Alvarez batting clean up 100 times out of 100 if I had the choice.
history is littered with teams who won World Series without a player hitting 30 or 40 HR's - look at the 90's Yankees and 2010's SF Giants.
did those fans whine about not having a cleanup hitter hit 40 HR's, playing medicore defense?
fWAR is a stat people use to compare players, until someone wants to cherry pick stats to not use it (David vs Alonso).
I'd take a Keith Hernandez or Jon Olrerud at 1B and Alvarez batting clean up 100 times out of 100 if I had the choice.
history is littered with teams who won World Series without a player hitting 30 or 40 HR's - look at the 90's Yankees and 2010's SF Giants.
did those fans whine about not having a cleanup hitter hit 40 HR's, playing medicore defense?
fWAR is a stat people use to compare players, until someone wants to cherry pick stats to not use it (David vs Alonso).
i assume david = davis?
how did i cherry pick not using fwar when i literally posted how alonso has produced almost twice as much value through their same age 28 seasons even though davis had 2 extra seasons in bigs?
in his first full 5 seasons through age 28 Pete is worth 14.5 war.
in his first full 7 seasons through age 28 Davis was worth 8 fwar.
(i removed the word "full" from my initial post bc davis had some partial seasons and alonso had the short covid year)
davis' rc through that age 28 season, which included his best career a27 year, was 115.
if alonso (133 carrer rc) is another davis , so is
matt olsen (135 career rc, grades worse defensively than alonso),
and vlad jr (130 career rc, worse defensively than alsono),
and devers (123 career rc, will probably grade worse defensively at 1b whenever he makes the switch, unless they go straight to DH like alvarez, he's won a ring right?).
lucas duda is a closer comparison to davis than alonso and even he put up a higher rc over his career (116) than davis (105). also more seasons over 100 rc (6x). his 10 year career added up to 6.5 fwar in about 500 (1/3) fewer games than davis so they were about equal in terms of productivity by rate (davis more productive on d, duda more productive w/ bat).
whether or not alonso will be worth whatever $ he ends up getting is impossible to predict until we know what he's getting but comparisons to chris davis are as off target as comparing him to duda would be.
@Mets
·
1m
We have signed outfielder Taylor Kohlwey to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Padres' Taylor Kohlwey: Promoted to majors - ( New Window )
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
4m
Sources involved in the Shohei Ohtani sweepstakes tell me that an aspect of finality has been felt in recent hours and days. Feels like we are finally coming up on the big decision, and it’s only a matter of time until we find out where he may be headed.
i know there have been boring WM before (maybe we need a thread change) and rosenthal has been grinding an axe, but this is still pretty staggering:
Here’s a fun little fact that speaks to the slow pace of the offseason: Candelario, catcher Victor Caratini, infielder Joey Wendle, and shortstop Paul DeJong are the only free-agent position players thus far to change teams (Jason Heyward re-signed with the Dodgers).
Though Shohei Ohtani’s lingering free agency certainly is holding up some transactions, some in the industry cite other factors for the lack of signings. The weak class of position players is one. The staggered postings of Asian players is another.
had the mets made their michael cuddyer signing this year, i think his same contract in 2014 dollars would be more than the entire position player market of position changers has gotten combined.
Rosenthal: What I’m hearing about Rangers’ pitching plans, Jorge Soler and more - ( New Window )
McIIwain is 26, Kohlway 29
McIIwain is 26, Kohlway 29
he sounds like SD's version of JT schwartz (in about 5 years after he's been stuck in AAA for a while hitting for contact but not much power).
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
4m
Mets have signed OF/1B Taylor Kohlwey to a minor league deal with an invitation to big league camp.
The 29-year-old is a career .296/.387/.444 hitter in Triple-A and went 2-for-13 in his big league debut this year.
We've moved on from scotch tape to duct tape. Sadly, a huge jump in org philosophy 😂
im encouraged by the seemingly increased organizational focus on low-k rates so far w/ stearns.
low k approach is i think the best foundation to start w/ because if something clicks on top you end up with a useful batter whether it's league average power or contact (or defense like guillorme).
Didn't even include Rudick and Jordan
Quote:
18th in the PCL in wRC+ in this *3rd* season there. Nothing wrong with organizational players but if Schwartz doesn't develop anymore, this is exactly the career he's looking at.
im encouraged by the seemingly increased organizational focus on low-k rates so far w/ stearns.
low k approach is i think the best foundation to start w/ because if something clicks on top you end up with a useful batter whether it's league average power or contact (or defense like guillorme).
To be clear, I'm not knocking the guy, there is ZERO downside to adding guys like this, hopefully no more Abraham Almonte types getting actual PT... though I'm sure we'll see that again lol I'm obviously more hopeful JT Schwartz at not yet 25 figures out how to hit for more power than a 29 year old but hey... Jose Bautista lol
and yeah totally hear you, all these fringe guys are unlikely to ever turn into much. bautista is prob a unicorn but if you can find a max muncy (or gulp, justin turner) out of nowhere that's a big add even for a team with a major payroll, not just in the cheap years but getting reasonable years extended early.
i thought that was the type of trend they saw in naquin/vogelbach/ruf except they were wrong on all 3.
i guess a silver lining would be him staying in the AL but if the dodgers miss on this they are going scorched earth somewhere.
I'd take a Keith Hernandez or Jon Olrerud at 1B and Alvarez batting clean up 100 times out of 100 if I had the choice.
history is littered with teams who won World Series without a player hitting 30 or 40 HR's - look at the 90's Yankees and 2010's SF Giants.
did those fans whine about not having a cleanup hitter hit 40 HR's, playing medicore defense?
fWAR is a stat people use to compare players, until someone wants to cherry pick stats to not use it (David vs Alonso).
Wait just want to come back to this...
I think ANYONE would take Keith Hernandez or John Olerud over Pete..
Just because Brandon Nimmo isn't as good as Carlos Beltran doesn't mean he wasn't a big signing.
Nimmo had an OPS higher than Alonso in 2023. In fact Nimmo had higher stats in just about every offensive category than Alonso except ISO. You could make a case Alonso was unlucky in 2023 but I'm not sure that explains it all.
My point about Alonso, who seems like a great guy and a good player, is I think money on his is better spent in more impactful ways - long term because a: I don't see his type of player aging well and b: teams do not need a player who prototypes like Alonso to win championships.
If Nimmo replaced Alonso as cleanup hitter would people have complained? Maybe, but they wouldn't be justified unless all they care about is HRs.
I would not give Alonso away and I don't think he's awful, I just would not extend him unless it was very team friendly and I think the time to trade him is now.
the defese/99 infield thing gives me a little pause but in terms of that being special, it was a 1 year thing. i view alonso pretty neutral defensively. by drs he was actually +6 last year (4th of 16 qualifiers) and by OAA he was neutral 0 (7th out of 16 qualifiers).
net-net piazza is a hof'er having little to do with his defense, olerud isn't. if pete has another 5-6 prime seasons he too will probably be hall of fame bound. he's almost at 200 homers in less than 5 full seasons so he's got a real shot at 500 homers.
Nimmo had an OPS higher than Alonso in 2023. In fact Nimmo had higher stats in just about every offensive category than Alonso except ISO. You could make a case Alonso was unlucky in 2023 but I'm not sure that explains it all.
My point about Alonso, who seems like a great guy and a good player, is I think money on his is better spent in more impactful ways - long term because a: I don't see his type of player aging well and b: teams do not need a player who prototypes like Alonso to win championships.
If Nimmo replaced Alonso as cleanup hitter would people have complained? Maybe, but they wouldn't be justified unless all they care about is HRs.
I would not give Alonso away and I don't think he's awful, I just would not extend him unless it was very team friendly and I think the time to trade him is now.
that's all perfectly reasonable but doesnt make chris davis a realistic comp.
like many stats in baseball OPS is a combination of different stats. not all of them are exactly equal. what alonso does from a run production standpoint, not to mention the fact that he is very often good in the clutch, are things that weight higher for me than the fact that nimmo is great at walking more (and had a lot more singles fall in last year, which over their careers was an outlier for whatever reason since they have comparable ba's).
if i had to choose only 1 stat, total XBH is probably the most important stat in ranking the best hitters in baseball. alonso was highest met last year and 15th in mlb with 69 XBH. pretty sure he's been highest met all 5 years he's been in big leagues.
notice the trend with last year's top 10:
1. 90 nl mvp 3rd place freeman - 1st place lad
2. 84 nl mvp 4th place matt olson - 1st place atl
3. 80 nl mvp ronald acuna - 1st place atl
4. 80 nl mvp runner up mookie betts - 1st place lad
5. 78 al mvp shohei ohtani
6. 75 luis robert (12th place)
7. 75 al mvp runner up corey seager
8. 73 al mvp 3rd place marcus semien
9. 72 nl mvp 7th place austin riley
10. 71 al mvp 4th place julio rodriguez
8/10 were top 5 of mvp voting.
alonso has had 67+ xbh every full season, and his rookie year he had 85. so his ceiling is already an MVP level player.
i have no issue moving on from him if the price gets out of whack and the $ is genuinely better spent elsewhere, but to make that judgement we need to be clear eyed about how difficult and expensive it is to get anyone better than him. there are only about 20 guys in mlb who fit that description and a bunch of them are already signed.
All to the point of I'm not interested in extending Alonso long term unless it's very team friendly.
One of the hardest things to do in sports, any sport, is to pay someone based on what you expect them to do in the future, and not for what they have done in the past and it's almost impossible in some ways, analytics helps in others, but it's not perfect and Alonso is not a guy I would roll the dice on being consistent or even better improving as he ages.
They are claiming this was a false alarm
Verified
@TBTimes_Rays
#Rays get OF Jake Magnum from #Marlins as the PTNBL to complete 11/17 trade of Brujan and Faucher
Then it would be an Imananga/Severino/Giolito type offseason. That would certainly be underwhelming, unless there is some trade up the sleeve.
Quote:
Healey says he does *not* expect the Mets go to big on Montgomery or Snell if they miss out on Yamamoto. Seems like Yamamoto is a special case here.
Then it would be an Imananga/Severino/Giolito type offseason. That would certainly be underwhelming, unless there is some trade up the sleeve.
steamer (zips for intl):
yamamoto 3.7 fwar
snell 3.2 fwar
montgomery 3.2 fwar
imanaga 3.1 fwar (other than yamamoto he's probably the guy they've been most tied to)
giolito 2.3 fwar
lugo is next on the list at 2.2 fwar.
corbin burnes is 3.8 and would probably cost less than any 3+ SP with years of control. bieber is 3.0.
they need to fill innings and they have unlimited money. yamamoto clearly the top choice but with or without him they have other choices. once he decides we'll see how their priorities below him flow.
they know they need to fill ~400 innings. if they dont sign one of these guys multi-year they know they will be right back in market again next year for even more than that 400 innings since severino and quintana both expire.
All to the point of I'm not interested in extending Alonso long term unless it's very team friendly.
One of the hardest things to do in sports, any sport, is to pay someone based on what you expect them to do in the future, and not for what they have done in the past and it's almost impossible in some ways, analytics helps in others, but it's not perfect and Alonso is not a guy I would roll the dice on being consistent or even better improving as he ages.
I think you are mischaracterizing him as a power hitter more than the fact that he is a good all around hitter. Also his defense as worse than it is.
for his career Alonso strikes out less and has a higher batting average than Matt Olson (they are very comparable). Olson grades worse defensively. Braves extended him through age 35 + club option on age 36. The right move would have been extending Alonso on a similar or slightly better contract the day after Olsen signed his 8x168m deal because it looked team friendly from day 1. That was obvious and that was pre-Boras so why it didnt happen who knows.
if he hits free agency he will be very comparable to Mark Texeira who hit FA at the same age (29) with a very similar profile across the board. and who ended up producing about 18 wins above replacement over 8 seasons with NYY. was mvp runner up once and got votes 4x. won 1 WS.
i dont think he is a must sign, especially if they somehow end up with Soto or if Vientos breaks out, but i dont think you are getting very good trade value for him as a 21m rental so the likeliest path is playing it out at least until trade deadline when you can make a more informed decision.
alonso has 2 top 10's (7th in 2019 and 8th in 2022) and 3x all star.
alonso has 2 top 10's (7th in 2019 and 8th in 2022) and 3x all star.
Teixiera was coming off a 6.9fWAR season when the Yankees signed him, and produced 13fWAR in the first 3 years of the deal (Alonso's 3 best seasons to date haven't equaled 13 fWAR).
If Alonso puts up a 6.9 fWAR season then I'll change my tune in October next year and pony up to re-sign Alonso.
Santos
"Summation: Potential solid organizational starter. Ceiling of an emergency up-and-down depth arm. Low ceiling. Potential for two average secondary pitches, but lack of fastball potential limits ceiling. Has solid feel for pitching and an advanced command profile. Will throw strikes, but lacks put-away stuff against minor league bats and will struggle even more against more advanced hitters.
Robertson
"Summation: Projects as solid up-and-down bullpen arm due to intriguing three-pitch mix. Has potential to work himelf into a high-leverage role if he can refine the command of his secondaries. Well liked among his teammates.
I get holding onto prospects but 100 would have done something like this
fresh evidence they are shifting more towards low-krate types.
Quote:
in his 6 years he had been worth a total of about 25 fwar and he had 1 top 10 MVP finish (7th in 2005). only a 1x all star.
alonso has 2 top 10's (7th in 2019 and 8th in 2022) and 3x all star.
Teixiera was coming off a 6.9fWAR season when the Yankees signed him, and produced 13fWAR in the first 3 years of the deal (Alonso's 3 best seasons to date haven't equaled 13 fWAR).
If Alonso puts up a 6.9 fWAR season then I'll change my tune in October next year and pony up to re-sign Alonso.
which is the path they seem most likely to take - see how he performs and what the offers are, then decide to keep or not based on the price. if he has a 5 win season next year, his 3 best years will add up to 13.2 fwar. his 4.4 win year as a rookie is his current high, i think part of that was he hit 2nd and had the best hitter of his time here behind him (conforto had a 33hr/92 rbi season hitting most 3rd/4th). i guess it remains to be seen if they upgrade that.
the only reason worth diverging is if someone offers something so good you cant pass it up and but i havent seen any assets like that change teams on the trade market even w/ soto.
Quote:
. Officially jealous. Boston gave up very very little for O’Neill. 100% would have given up a similar package
fresh evidence they are shifting more towards low-krate types.
Taylor struck out 34% of his Ab's in 2023, 30% career
“I’ve heard the Rays are looking for a catcher. I can definitely say they were in on Victor Caratini.”
“I’ve heard the Rays are looking for a catcher. I can definitely say they were in on Victor Caratini.”
that's interesting...maybe even nido if they are looking to save more $ in a swap, am i crazy or were there "tampa likes nido" rumors at some point a year or two ago?
@JeffPassan
·
1m
The Atlanta Braves are acquiring infielder David Fletcher and catcher Max Stassi in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels for first baseman Evan White and right-handed reliever Tyler Thomas, sources tell ESPN.
Mike Daddino
@mike_daddino
The Texas Rangers are unlikely to bring back Jordan Montgomery due to the financial uncertainty of losing a local TV deal, per Ken Rosenthal
Reports say Yankees have shown interest in a reunion.
Mike Daddino
@mike_daddino
The Texas Rangers are unlikely to bring back Jordan Montgomery due to the financial uncertainty of losing a local TV deal, per Ken Rosenthal
Reports say Yankees have shown interest in a reunion.
maybe an interesting way of looking at this or maybe not:
2024 steamer/zips proj.
yamamoto 3.7 fwar 171 innings (zips)
snell 3.3 fwar 174 innings
montgomery 3.2 fwar 188 innings
imanaga 3.1 fwar 138 innings (zips)
giolito 2.3 fwar 164 innings
scherzer 3.1 fwar 174 innings
verlander 2.6 fwar 178 innings
even kicking in $, mets saved ~$23m per pitcher at the deadline (46m total).
re-investing that $46m + another $10m or so should get them 2 younger pitchers, with more years of control, projected to give them about what ms/jv would have along with gilbert/acuna/clifford.
obviously there are preferable combinations (starting with yamamoto) but i'd be generally ok as long as they add any 2 of those sp. severino is projected at 1.6 fwar in 141 innings.
Brantley 11% (likely a DH at this point)
Margot 17% (would be a trade, steamer projects 1 fwar)
Gurriel 19% (17% last 2 years)
Keirmeir 22%
Bellinger 22%
Joc 23%
Pham 24%
Bader 24% (he's been sub-20% last 2 years)
Soler 26%
Teoscar 30%
Taylor 30%
margot, gurriel, bader seem like 3 best fits (also 3 youngest on list).
not sure if it was legit or a fluke but if gurriel is really a + defender in LF (+17 drs combined last 2 years) he's my pick - especially if you can get him on an inflated pillow deal.
this may be a misread but i think they appear to be aiming for younger pitchers. fedde 30 years old, lopez 30 years old, severino 29.
martino said this a few days ago:
Mets would pursue frontline starter if they miss out on top target Yoshinobu Yamamoto - ( New Window )
the ball really jumps off his bat different than even alonso/vientos.
https://x.com/SNY_Mets/status/1733313899460518220?s=20 - ( New Window )
this is just a first impression but i think stearns seems less aggressive and more patient than eppler was. perhaps even more patient than they were in 2020 when they sprung early for mccann.
yamamoto is his priority and it seems clear he's not acting all that aggressive on anything beyond 1-2 years ahead of that.
the severino, lopez, and potential fedde prices can be viewed as somewhat aggressive relative to projections, lopez wasnt even projected to get a major league deal by fg, so my conclusion from that is the guys he was willing to be aggressive about were the youger upside depth plays (as opposed to a safer play like lugo, whose only big difference is age).
if they miss on yamamoto i suspect we will see heightened aggressiveness on their plan b, c, etc as martino reports. i think a montgomery and imanaga combo is probably a plan b they'd be aggressive for.
“ Today’s false reporting about Shohei Ohtani’s big decision was a disgrace.
Amazing how many mistakes are made when an agent isn’t spoon-feeding info.
Journalists: If you want to speculate wildly with zero consequences, become a professional gasbag (the gig pays pretty well).”
Just one example
I wonder if there’s some kind of accommodation they can make. Presumably he sees the kind of payday Yamamoto is about to hit and doesn’t want to get hurt and miss it.
His team may feel similarly if there’s a way they can get paid now, though probably not the type of precedent the league wants (if there even was a way around the rules in first place).
Quote:
Sasaki has asked to be posted. His team (the Marines) have already rejected this request. Until he’s 25 they would not receive a posting fee (well they would, but max out at about 600K)
I wonder if there’s some kind of accommodation they can make. Presumably he sees the kind of payday Yamamoto is about to hit and doesn’t want to get hurt and miss it.
His team may feel similarly if there’s a way they can get paid now, though probably not the type of precedent the league wants (if there even was a way around the rules in first place).
There is none. Its iron clad. In fact, there are some teams who have never once granted a posting request. Not only that, even if posted, it’s 3 weeks before teams officially sign their class of 2024 aka most teams have little money remaining. And before people ask, he can’t just “retire”. Nomo tried this and they closed that loophole.
“ The SoftBank Hawks have never posted a player, have said they never will”
@martinonyc
It never got serious between Mets and Ohtani. It would have if the team had any indication Ohtani would come to NY, but they never did. Now both Yankees and Mets are pleased to be less worried on LAD on Yamamoto.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
400 million for a guy who has never pitched in MLB would be pure insanity. Mets can have him at that price
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
Ohtani comp in history is Babe Ruth. No one else has been the pitcher and hitter that he has, and Ruth stopped pitching.
$70 million is nuts considering the injury risk with Ohtani pitching. That becomes an awfully expensive DH. And I would assume if he can't pitch, he won't be playing the OF.
Agreed that it's hard to single out Cohen anymore. Besides this crazy deal, you've talked about the Yankees with Cole, Stanton, Rodon, Judge, and now Soto if they extend him.
Yamamoto really is a unicorn of his own sort too. He should be a legitimate MLB ace. How often does a 25 year old ace become available in free agency? There may be someone, but I can't think of one. Usually pitchers aren't even in their arbitration years at that age. I had his contract at 10 years, $300 million, but I agree it could get quite a bit higher than that
Quote:
another way - it gives cohen a lot of air cover to literally spend whatever he wants on a yamamoto deal.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
400 million for a guy who has never pitched in MLB would be pure insanity. Mets can have him at that price
i dont disagree, but 700m is insanity for a 30 year old ohtani too.
i think insanity may be here to stay for a minute.
cohen was willing to pay verlander and scherzer 43m per year. he saved $46m next year trading them.
if they think yamamoto is a 10 year ace at age 25, rationalizing 10 years @40m per isn't that hard.
if blue jays and sfg are indeed in on yamamoto, and both have $500m+ laying around that ohtani didnt take, plus mets/yankees/sox...after this deal, i think id bet the winning bid starts with a "4".
Quote:
another way - it gives cohen a lot of air cover to literally spend whatever he wants on a yamamoto deal.
would it be shocking for him to go to $400m (with some deferrals, etc)?
this deal so obliterates any prior comps, and yeah ohtani is a unicorn, but at 25 years old so is yamamoto.
Ohtani comp in history is Babe Ruth. No one else has been the pitcher and hitter that he has, and Ruth stopped pitching.
$70 million is nuts considering the injury risk with Ohtani pitching. That becomes an awfully expensive DH. And I would assume if he can't pitch, he won't be playing the OF.
Agreed that it's hard to single out Cohen anymore. Besides this crazy deal, you've talked about the Yankees with Cole, Stanton, Rodon, Judge, and now Soto if they extend him.
Yamamoto really is a unicorn of his own sort too. He should be a legitimate MLB ace. How often does a 25 year old ace become available in free agency? There may be someone, but I can't think of one. Usually pitchers aren't even in their arbitration years at that age. I had his contract at 10 years, $300 million, but I agree it could get quite a bit higher than that
ohtani has the TJS though. so i agree, babe ruth, but we are looking at his age 30/31 the next time he's on the mound and some possibility he doesnt make it all the way back as a pitcher.
i think yamamoto's age makes him enough of a unicorn that his contract ends up equally ridiculous.
if you are willing to do 10x30m, which i think a lot of teams may be willing to do, is 12x35m that much farther? that's $420m and still less than a few of the teams involved were already offering ohtani.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
Quote:
but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
Me too, but committing too much for too long could be a big mistake.
Quote:
but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
the stakes have certainly ratcheted up to 'man's game/man's price' level.
with the benefit of hindsight lad losing on scherzer was probably more that they passed their comfort zone a guy who blew up in the postseason and were looking a year out to reset their lux tax with an eye on soto/ohtani.
it all depends on how the mets view yamamoto though. the reigning NL CY is out there and i still think him at a $150m+ discount (that could easily pay for montogmery or imanaga) is a choice many teams would make purely on the value of the total investment.
but if they truly view yamamoto as a 25 year old unicorn we just learned what unicorn prices may be. the LAD still have less on their books this year than the mets. these couple weeks before holidays going to be interesting.
Quote:
In comment 16317127 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
Me too, but committing too much for too long could be a big mistake.
Sure... But it not the type of mistake like we had in Wilpon days where we would lose a Reyes and A Wheeler because we couldn't spend... Cohen isn't gonna let talent like that walk for reasonable deals like the Wilpons did no matter what bad contracts are sitting on the books
@JonHeyman
·
5m
Yes, the Dodgers are still interested in and can still afford Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Uncertain though, how the Ohtani signing may affect their chances, pro or con. The three perceived favorites: 1. Mets 2. Yankees 3. Dodgers
the penalty for signing another QO free agent (snell, hader) is just another $500k intl and their 3rd highest draft pick.
clearly they have been planning this out so i assume their intl class is already strategically protected.
with both hader/snell having been in southern california i think id expect to see 1 of them end in LA. especially if they decide to pay up for yamamoto.
the way the mets have played things, it seems like they have set themselves up to pay a unicorn price that the NYY cant pay after Soto and LAD may be hesitant to pay after Ohtani.
2022 offseason, mets make scherzer highest aav pitcher ever by 8m
2023 offseason, mets match scherzer deal with jvv becoming 2nd pitcher with 43m aav
given the way the mets evaluation would seem to dictate being all in on yamamoto despite some quality alternatives, i think we are going to see another eye popping contract.
$40mx10 years would be less per year and running through a few years younger than max/jv ages when they signed.
$37mx11 years is just 2 years longer and 1m more per year than the deal cole signed ahead of his age 29 4 years ago.
if you believe yamamoto is on that level, and made more valuable by the age, i think those are justifiable deals even before factoring any deferrals or gimmicks to minimize tax penalties.
maybe his market has been overstated or maybe stearns has more discipline than eppler, but after the ohtani deal and the immediate rush to imply cohen may have spent that if ohtani was interested in ny im doubting that.
To add, the guy who reported it apologized ala Morosi. Said he got bad info
he is looking at earning probably less than 5m total career earnings through april 2026 so he's a great candidate to get a big discount on extension.
2 years closer to FA murphy took 6x73m last year which bought out 3 FA years + 1 club option.
will smith got 5m in his arb1 last year and projects around 10m for his arb2. so lets say 30m for 3 arb years.
his first year to buy out would be his age 27, so lets say the mets want to buy out his a27, 28, 29 that's an 8 year deal worth:
~$35m scheduled over next 5 years
+3* whatever market rate they negotiate, discounted for the early guarantee ($12-15m per?)
15m per free agent year is what Murphy got, so i think that's a ceiling for alvarez because Murphy was 2 years closer to FA. If we estimate high that same free agent amount at $15m per 3 UFA years that is a total deal of 8 years 80m.
not far off the 8x82m chourio just took (which also has 2 team options), which im sure is a deal alvarez is thinking about when he says he'd love to extend early. maybe mets beat that slight with 8x85m to get themselves an extra team option or two.
if dodgers miss on yamamoto, snell or hader would make sense. or both. why not, would probably cost less than yamamoto.
Would you trade Alonso for Trout?
Would LA do it if they could dump all Trout's salary?
If Trout would learn to play 1B would you do this as a Mets fan (or even regardless)? I feel like Trout got old quick, but maybe not playing CF will help him stay healthy and he's such a good athlete maybe he'd become a plus first baseman. and i know his latest or one of his latest injuries (the hamate) had nothing to do with playing the field.
Overall thoughts on his first year
“Most importantly, I’m glad I was able to stay healthy the entire season. I wasn’t sure where I stood in the league coming into the year, but I think I was able to perform well enough to receive lots of positive evaluations.”
On pitching with Scherzer & Verlander
“When I first saw them, I felt like I was entering a fantasy world because I’d only seen those legends on TV. I was able to shadow them in the first half but after they were traded, I felt like the spotlight was on me more.”
On getting used to the MLB ball (1/2)
“At first, I couldn’t get used to it at all. I felt like I was in a battle with myself on the mound just to find the strike zone. The balls are less tacky and there’s less humidity in the air. It was a real challenge to get used to”
On cultural differences
“I went to the US with the intent to assimilate to an American lifestyle. Even if I felt like food or routines were different than what I had back in Japan, I accepted things and went along with it. So the cultural differences didn’t bother me at all.”
On differences between NPB and MLB (2/2)
“MLB hitters are very concerned about things like exit velocity. I felt like even the smallest mistakes I made could be taken into the stands for a homer, or split the gaps for a double…”
On differences between NPB and MLB (2/2)
“MLB is a different brand of baseball. Most hitters aren’t concerned with whiffing if they can just crush one pitch a game and hit a homer. NPB is about stringing together hits for a rally. MLB is about extra base hits and home runs.”
On MLB analytics (1/3)
“The amount of data is totally different. In NPB, catchers have to do most of the homework on the hitters. In MLB, there’s just so much data and everyone — including pitchers and position pitchers — have to know it.”
Jon Heyman
Verified
@JonHeyman
·
28m
Chafin Tigers deal is $4.75M plus $1.25M in performance bonuses
Overall thoughts on his first year
“Most importantly, I’m glad I was able to stay healthy the entire season. I wasn’t sure where I stood in the league coming into the year, but I think I was able to perform well enough to receive lots of positive evaluations.”
On pitching with Scherzer & Verlander
“When I first saw them, I felt like I was entering a fantasy world because I’d only seen those legends on TV. I was able to shadow them in the first half but after they were traded, I felt like the spotlight was on me more.”
On getting used to the MLB ball (1/2)
“At first, I couldn’t get used to it at all. I felt like I was in a battle with myself on the mound just to find the strike zone. The balls are less tacky and there’s less humidity in the air. It was a real challenge to get used to”
On cultural differences
“I went to the US with the intent to assimilate to an American lifestyle. Even if I felt like food or routines were different than what I had back in Japan, I accepted things and went along with it. So the cultural differences didn’t bother me at all.”
On differences between NPB and MLB (2/2)
“MLB hitters are very concerned about things like exit velocity. I felt like even the smallest mistakes I made could be taken into the stands for a homer, or split the gaps for a double…”
On differences between NPB and MLB (2/2)
“MLB is a different brand of baseball. Most hitters aren’t concerned with whiffing if they can just crush one pitch a game and hit a homer. NPB is about stringing together hits for a rally. MLB is about extra base hits and home runs.”
On MLB analytics (1/3)
“The amount of data is totally different. In NPB, catchers have to do most of the homework on the hitters. In MLB, there’s just so much data and everyone — including pitchers and position pitchers — have to know it.”
id imagine having a resource like senga is something that is viewed positively by either of yamamoto/imanaga to help with their transition of learning how to pitch in mlb. i assume $ will be the biggest factor in either decision but i think that's probably something that also helps. id imagine yamamoto chose the same agent for similar reasons (recent relevant experience).
he is a 'super aggregator' in terms of very quickly retweeting others info (and he credits them), and he has yet to break a signing that ive seen, but he has seemed to have accurate information on whats going on in the markets. if you go back to last year, some of his most viewed tweets re the mets were reporting that lindor was pushing for correa/3b a few weeks before that happened and that the mets getting senga was more likely after the nimmo/robertson signings not less. so he seems to have some intel even though he doesnt appear to be the newsbreaker the bigger national guys are. i think i remember him breaking a few things at the trade deadline re mets prospect returns so i guess we'll see if he gets any scoops w/ met stuff as more happens.
fg matrix has his median exactly between at 1x5m.
If all was equal I think he’d choose yanks or lad, which is why I think Mets end up needing to offer $ that’s not close to equal.
-several MLB GM's believe @mets would consider potential offers for all-star 1b Pete Alonso #Mets
I would think they will be most disciplined re yamamoto after ohtani.
Depending on $ that may end up the smartest decision, the lad know better than anyone that being younger doesn’t always mean less likely to have a serious arm injury.
Ken Rosenthal
Verified
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
5m
Dodgers working on trade with Yankees to create spots on 40-man roster for Shohei Ohtani and Joe Kelly, sources tell
@TheAthletic
. Expectation is the Yankees will receive two 40-man players for a prospect not on their 40. Names not yet known.
I want him bad. He'd be the perfect 2nd lefty outta the pen. He's got a history with Sterns too from their days together with the Brew Crew.
Quote:
but im pretty sure this contract may have just made yamamoto a met on what will be the biggest guarantee ever to a pitcher by a good margin factoring in the posting fee.
After passing on Ohtani and Soto (twice) and the Correa debacle.. I do feel like it's time to do something big here
Losing to the Yankees here would feel pretty shitty, to be honest
Agreed
jdm's year last year was very unexpected after back problems. highest average exit velo of his career. maybe he's the next nelson cruz.
think mets seem to be going younger and more flex in the roster so id imagine someone else is more aggressive for him but i could see him mash in AZ.
Link - ( New Window )
No update on Mauricio yet
42 innings 19 hits (too many walks-19) 42 k's 1.71 era/3.68 FIP can't imagine Shelby Miller costs much either
@francysromeroFR
Source: The Chicago White Sox are the favorites to sign SS Jurdrick Profar (17) for around $ 700,000 when a new international period opens on January 15, 2024.
Obviously, Jurdrick, from Willemstead, Curacao, is Jurickson Profar's brother. Great multi-tool talent with above-average speed, contact and arm and 20/20 potential player.
@Mets
We’ve signed INF Rylan Bannon to a minor league contract with an invitation to major league Spring Training.
Chris Clegg
@RotoClegg
This does not look good 😬
Really sucks as Mauricio was killing it in the DSL, having a .441/.472/.706 slash with 5 extra base hits in 8 games.
@yakyucosmo
·
1h
Indeed interesting how little news there’s been on Matsui.
It was originally reported last month that the Cardinals have already prepared an offer. The Padres, Cubs, and Rangers are also looking at him.
this is from logenhagen 2 years ago:
i somewhat hesitate to say this but his offensive statline from last year looks a bit pcl vogelbachy. other than the 12 sb. 15% walk rate + 10% xbh%.
If the process comes down to a bidding war, Cohen should have the edge as the league’s wealthiest owner, given the way he has demonstrated a willingness to spend.
Also, the Mets have made Yamamoto their clear-cut, No. 1 priority this offseason. He matters to them so much that Cohen and president David Stearns flew to Japan recently to meet with Yamamoto and his family, as The Athletic first reported. Stearns said the meeting went well. If Yamamoto chooses to sign elsewhere, it doesn’t seem like it would be from a lack of effort on the Mets’ part — even Kodai Senga has told the front office how much he wants to play with Yamamoto (Yamamoto is believed to be open to the idea of playing with someone else from Japan).
On the field, the Mets can point to Senga’s success last season. Senga, 30, finished as the runner-up for the National League’s Rookie of the Year Award. Senga also stayed healthy, as the Mets were careful to keep him on schedule since he was used to pitching just once a week in Japan. Through a lot of preparation and work, the Mets helped Senga face an array of challenges as he lived and competed in a new country.
Significant parts of that infrastructure remain: Pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and director of pitching development Eric Jagers attended the initial meeting with Senga last year in New York. Now, Hefner is in an even better position to help someone like Yamamoto make adjustments to a repertoire with a new ball, mound and better competition. And don’t neglect the impact of Senga’s translator, Hiro Fujiwara, who accompanied Stearns and Cohen to Japan for the Yamamoto meeting, as SNY first reported. Fujiwara has a positive reputation in the industry for being a great communicator.
From a roster standpoint, no player on the market fits the Mets better than Yamamoto. He’d give them a front-line pitcher in 2024 and beyond. It’s something they seriously need. — Will Sammon
Which New York team has the best chance to sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto? - ( New Window )
had an outstanding AFL. 9 appearances, 0 runs allowed. Under the radar strong season. A+/AA/AFL 3.14 era over 60.1 innings, 72 k's vs. 20 walks
Here's a list of the league's franchises and how long they've gone without winning a Cup:
Syracuse, 38 years
Norfolk, 29
Rochester, 17
Charlotte, 15
Indianapolis, 14
Louisville, 13
Buffalo, 10
Toledo, 8
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, 6
Columbus, 3
Pawtucket, 2
Durham, 1
I feel like I read blurbs on here that the Mets were following Yammamoto even before the WBC.
as the yamamoto stuff boils down i think the bottomline is this, the mets have chosen to go all in on a player that appears to be a big boy blue chip bidding war.
their strategy has not appeared in any way to be hedging "we are in if the value lines up" to the point of making no multiyear financial commitments even at other positions of need.
with their main major market competition essentially committing to spend 1/2bn+ each to 2 players in the next decade+ over the last week and both still pressing forward on yamamoto, if the mets dont similarly go all in on yamamoto, i think there will be some fair criticism of "what was the point?" and "why not pivot once writing was on the wall if they werent prepared to pay up?"
that they would set themselves up for that trap, especially with cohen putting himself in the room personally, and not offer a huge check seems unlikely, so i think they will be top $ offer by a healthy margin but will it get him?
If they have that $$$ to offer, I wonder what Toronto's backup plan could be. does Trout make sense there?
Quote:
Toronto's final offer was "near" 700 million but they stopped bidding when it was clear Ohtani preferred LAD.
If they have that $$$ to offer, I wonder what Toronto's backup plan could be. does Trout make sense there?
unfortunately it seems like yamamoto is one of them.
bellinger or chapman could also fit for them. i think there are rumors bellinger may be up there visiting right now.
Quote:
In comment 16318698 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Toronto's final offer was "near" 700 million but they stopped bidding when it was clear Ohtani preferred LAD.
If they have that $$$ to offer, I wonder what Toronto's backup plan could be. does Trout make sense there?
unfortunately it seems like yamamoto is one of them.
bellinger or chapman could also fit for them. i think there are rumors bellinger may be up there visiting right now.
Yeah, his fiance (Bellinger's) posted a photo indicating they were in Toronto. Doesn't mean it's to meet with the Blue Jays but it sure could.
Quote:
In comment 16318698 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Toronto's final offer was "near" 700 million but they stopped bidding when it was clear Ohtani preferred LAD.
If they have that $$$ to offer, I wonder what Toronto's backup plan could be. does Trout make sense there?
unfortunately it seems like yamamoto is one of them.
bellinger or chapman could also fit for them. i think there are rumors bellinger may be up there visiting right now.
Bellinger would make sense, I read that Varsho could be a hot trade candidate commodity too.
I guess Biggio didnt work out
One of those opportunities came on Sunday morning, when Katia partnered with Players for the Planet and Puerto Rico-based Rescate Playas Borinque, a community initiative dedicated to the restoration and protection of natural resources and open-air recreation areas on the island, for a cleanup event of Wilderness Beach. It’s a place that holds a special meaning for Katia, who grew up about 15 minutes away in Aguadilla.
“For me, this is an important moment,” Lindor said. “Katia has always enjoyed doing this kind of work since she was a kid. She supports me all year, so now I’m here for her as well as Puerto Rico.”
Link - ( New Window )
Why not?
I think the only player's wife I've ever had an opinion on was Kris Benson lol
Quote:
this, I wasn't a big fan of Lindor's wife.
Why not?
I think the only player's wife I've ever had an opinion on was Kris Benson lol
Just her reaction to the Diaz injury of basically "fuck the Mets".
Seemed like she had some vitriol for some reason. I viewed it as the Mets had nothing from Diaz' best intentions in mind.
It's not like I hate her, I don't even know her, but when I read her comments about it and heard what she had to say I felt like I wasn't a fan
@SotoC803
There is no #LIDOM games today.....so its very possible we dont hear anything on Mauricio for another 24 hours.
@Buster_ESPN
Source: The Giants met yesterday with pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto. He's got a lot of big market teams bidding for his services.
I know this will be unpopular but the Yankees and Dodgers are brands that do not need to go above and beyond the normal courting. They are selling their team and legacy.
Now I won't be upset at the Mets efforts but this is an off season win we need. We are trying to rebuild our brand and become a desirable destination. I hope I am wrong but would the Yankees make the trip without knowing they are close?
Quote:
In comment 16318761 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
this, I wasn't a big fan of Lindor's wife.
Why not?
I think the only player's wife I've ever had an opinion on was Kris Benson lol
Just her reaction to the Diaz injury of basically "fuck the Mets".
Seemed like she had some vitriol for some reason. I viewed it as the Mets had nothing from Diaz' best intentions in mind.
It's not like I hate her, I don't even know her, but when I read her comments about it and heard what she had to say I felt like I wasn't a fan
Fair - was a genuine question as I barely have time to follow the players let alone the extra curriculars
I know this will be unpopular but the Yankees and Dodgers are brands that do not need to go above and beyond the normal courting. They are selling their team and legacy.
Now I won't be upset at the Mets efforts but this is an off season win we need. We are trying to rebuild our brand and become a desirable destination. I hope I am wrong but would the Yankees make the trip without knowing they are close?
of course the yankees are a viable destination. there is no question they could get him.
the more important question like every other FA negotiation is who will offer the most money?
they have never spent above 282m on payroll, and never paid cohen tax. without yamamoto both of those things are already likely to occur.
if someone offers yamamoto more than cole got, and they have to pay essentially a 110% tax on every dollar of the salary, that's a pretty tall ask.
and after the ohtani contract you know Boras is going to be loaded for a hunt next offseason on a deal also going beyond 40m AAV probably through soto's age 38/39, meaning that too is likely to be a deal above $500m+.
if the mets are able to get yamamoto, soto having gone to nyy and ohtani to lad will have likely been key factors, along with cohen being willing to trust his evaluators and spend a ridiculous amount of money on a guy who has never thrown an MLB pitch before.
nyy - 5m above
nym - 55m below
$30-35m to Yamamoto for mets still has them under what they spent last year.
$30m-35 to Yamamoto for yanks would put them +35m-40m above what they spent last year,
taxed at a higher 50% base rate as a 3rd year offender (+17.5m+),
with a chunk of that hit with the 60% surcharge at the cohen tax level (at least $20m x .60 = +12m)
add in the tax free posting fee of approx $50m on a $300m contract and the yankees are looking at spending almost $100m more than their previous high water mark to get yamamoto just next year if the price hits $300m.
with a soto free agency lined up to come after that.
if the mets are going to lose out on yamamoto they need to make it that painful or more for whoever gets him.
if they like him as much as they seem to say, i honestly wouldnt be shocked if the total sticker ends up $400m+. maybe it's all been some kind of a feint but the league is acting in a way that looks like it may push yamamoto farther beyond his projections than ohtani got.
the LAD trade? I dont know enough about the prospects other than the response that they are generally comparable but i do like the RP they got. basically just replaced 1 of the back end pieces of the soto trade without giving up much.
Quote:
like that trade Cashman just made. Yankees having a strong off-season as is, if they get Yamamoto too, jeez.
the LAD trade? I dont know enough about the prospects other than the response that they are generally comparable but i do like the RP they got. basically just replaced 1 of the back end pieces of the soto trade without giving up much.
Yes. They got a legitimately interesting LHRP signed through 2026 who throws 95-98 with strong GB rates for the cost of essentially swapping 2 similar prospects but LAD needing 40 man spots
2 years ago they got scherzer in large part bc the LAD were still carrying the bauer contract, which was a fringe benefit of being in the bidding even though they didnt get him.
if they are considering a soto run next year then it is in their benefit to bid up yamamoto even if they dont get him.
this is the big boy game they are in now. they showed a willingness to blow away precedent with scherzer and jv.
if they project yamamoto at 25 is on that kind of level, what's the argument for not stretching similarly close to 40m per year?
Quote:
In comment 16318902 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
like that trade Cashman just made. Yankees having a strong off-season as is, if they get Yamamoto too, jeez.
the LAD trade? I dont know enough about the prospects other than the response that they are generally comparable but i do like the RP they got. basically just replaced 1 of the back end pieces of the soto trade without giving up much.
Yes. They got a legitimately interesting LHRP signed through 2026 who throws 95-98 with strong GB rates for the cost of essentially swapping 2 similar prospects but LAD needing 40 man spots
yeah i posted about him this AM - his savant page is every good too. love the GB rate and good velocity. the way they have been able to develop relievers that is a really good add for them.
The Yankees would not confirm the attendees or any other details of the meeting. Cashman answered a question about it with his go-to phrase for not commenting, “[I] wouldn’t say.”
Meetings of this nature typically last 1-2 hours, and the expectation going in was that this one would follow that format. The team does most, but not all, of the presenting/talking. High-ranking members of the Wasserman group could also attend.
Steinbrenner’s presence, which comes after Mets owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan two weeks ago to meet with Yamamoto and his family, demonstrates the Yankees’ seriousness.
They are hardly the only team that feels that way; in addition to the Yanks and Mets, the Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Cubs and Cardinals are among the clubs linked to Yamamoto. According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Giants met with Yamamoto on Sunday.
As SNY has reported, Yamamoto has privately expressed interest in the Yankees and noticed when the team held out his preferred uniform number, 18, all last season. No one involved in the bidding expects that jersey number to be the deciding factor, but it was a meaningful gesture.
Another intangible factor working for the Yankees is former NPB and Yanks star Hideki Matsui. Not only is Matsui a current Yankee employee who, as Newark Star-Ledger columnist Bob Klapisch first reported, was helping in this situation -- but he is also a former Wasserman client said to have a meaningful relationship with Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe.
Link - ( New Window )
As of Sunday, the Yankees planned to send a large group of senior leadership to the meeting: managing general partner Hal Steinbrenner, general manager Brian Cashman, manager Aaron Boone and pitching coach Matt Blake, according to two league sources. If any attendees were added to or subtracted from that list, it would have been a last-minute change.
The Yankees would not confirm the attendees or any other details of the meeting. Cashman answered a question about it with his go-to phrase for not commenting, “[I] wouldn’t say.”
https://sny.tv/articles/what-to-expect-from-yankees-meeting-with-yoshinobu-yamamoto - ( New Window )
That doesn't sound promising. If there was mutual interest there would be more activity it seems.
@JackCurryYES
A source with knowledge of the Yankees’ interaction with Yamamoto said they remain optimistic about their pursuit of the free agent pitcher. It’s a crumb of info. So I’m sharing a crumb. Stay tuned. We’ll talk Yamamoto, Ohtani and more on the Yankees Hot Stove at 6:30 PM on YES.
Quote:
That doesn't sound promising. If there was mutual interest there would be more activity it seems.
it's meaningless unless we hear he is taking 2nd meetings with other teams.
and if he does you can bet mets will be in the "finalists" even if it's just to drive up the price.
not even kidding but who knows if the brewers would have spent to send any extra contingent in person for a guy they knew they couldnt afford. and if they did it probably wouldnt have been a guy whose contract allowed him to talk to other teams a few months later.
i think that's the obvious pivot (martino reported as well).
i know nobody wanted to play this game but if the price gets painful enough that Yamamoto $ = 2 of the 3 lesser names i really think it's a coinflip which side ends up better.
the total value received probably becomes actuarially equivalent if you are getting say 12 combined seasons of 2 quality SP vs. 10 seasons of 1 yamamoto. less value per outing and more skewed short term vs long term, but it also covers more innings that need to be filled and is more hedged against 1 big injury.
but hey i hope they get yamamoto, the way they've treated him so far i think honestly creates an argument that he is worth something seemingly insane at face value like a $40m x 10.
Link - ( New Window )
"Robert Orr (official)
@NotTheBobbyOrr
so they need an experienced coach proficient in 4 programming languages with a Master’s in biomechanics to work for 50k a year. Can’t imagine why they’d have any problems filling that opening"
"Lucas Seehafer
@seehafer_
I hold a DPT degree, the CSCS that's "beneficial" and am working on a Ph.D. in Kinesiology. I don't think I'd qualify for all of their requirements...and even if I did why would I do all that work for $60K?"
LOL you think they are bad NOW?
@jaseidler
·
40m
This is a non-entry level high travel hybrid tech/scouting job that is so complex/skilled that with over a decade in tech and nearly a decade in a senior prospect role at BP I don’t come close to meeting the qualifications. And it pays $50-65k https://
Link - ( New Window )
@martinonyc
·
16m
The story today is about the Yankees and Yamamoto because they had their meeting, but the Mets are still very much in this thing.
it sure does. they are at about $220m right now in the CBT calc per spotrac (pretty sure they have ohtani #s in there accurately).
the only silver lining is that im pretty sure they are the most disciplined when it comes to not giving out a contract beyond what they see as the right amount.
i know im a broken record but if the mets get yamamoto the $ is probably going to go farther beyond the projections than ohtani's went. and with fewer gimmicks.
Source: Mets' Ronny Mauricio undergoing tests for knee injury - ( New Window )
Sources: After landing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are aggressively pursuing free-agent RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The flexibility Ohtani’s contract provides allows Los Angeles to make room for additional marquee FAs.
Yamamoto and the Dodgers are expected to meet later this week.
Sources: After landing Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers are aggressively pursuing free-agent RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The flexibility Ohtani’s contract provides allows Los Angeles to make room for additional marquee FAs.
Yamamoto and the Dodgers are expected to meet later this week.
the team that gets yamamoto is going to be paying an uncomfortable and possibly unjustifiable price that will likely lead everyone to question whether that price is worth it.
we can either sweat out whether or not that team will be the mets, or figure out how to spend $400m another way we'll be happy about if they lose out.
i mean whatever we do is meaningless but i presume that's what all 3 of these teams are doing/have done. i think the met backup plan is probably something like 2 of montgomery/snell/imanaga.
2 of the 19 most valuable SP in baseball over the last 3 years are available (plus imanaga) and they need to fill innings.
only 2 of the guys ahead of snell/montgomery on this list are free agents next year at comparable ages (fried/burnes). half of the list has signed new long term contracts in the last 12-24 months.
if not snell or montgomery this year what's the future plan? pray burnes/fried dont get traded or extended?
the reason yamamoto is going to get paid the way he is, is because guys like him dont hit the market. waiting for the next one doesnt seem viable to me.
1. Martin Perez, 196.1 IP/2.89 ERA/1.26 WHIP, 5.0 fWAR
2. Dane Dunning, 153.1 IP/4.46 ERA/1.43 WHIP, 1.1 fWAR
3. Glenn Otto, 135.2 IP/4.64 ERA/1.33 WHIP, 0.6 fWAR
4. Jon Gray, 127.1 IP/3.96 ERA/1.13 WHIP, 1.4 fWAR
5. Taylor Hearn, 100.0 IP/5.13 ERA/1.50 WHIP, -0.5 fWAR
and in '23 Martin Perez regressed to a 4.45 era producing less than 1 fwar on the year.
it didn't matter because last offseason they spent like $250m on jdg/eovaldi/heaney,
then traded for scherzer/montgomery after losing jdg.
Prediction: Yamamoto will have the best split-finger among all MLB starting pitchers.
Prediction: Yamamoto will have an elite-grade curveball.
Prediction: Yamamoto might have a below-average cutter.
Prediction: Yamamoto should have elite command.
Prediction: Yamamoto’s height is likely irrelevant to the quality of his production, but it may be meaningful for the quantity.
"Nobody knows what they’ll get for sure, but it’s clear that the underlying data suggests that his future MLB team is getting an ace and that the only question is how many innings they’ll get for their trouble."
Perhaps the hope now is that those data-based scouting grades will ensure that teams are making a good decision when they fork over the biggest contract yet for a pitcher coming from Japan. We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination but also has not necessarily existed in one human being before.
Link - ( New Window )
ranks Francisco Alvarez the #2 C for Dynasty Fantasy baseball with a peak wRC+ projection of around 130, Kevin Parada came in at #42 #Mets
Where I'm going with this question is what other teams have shown success with this transition for Japanese pitchers?
I would think that should play a part in the decision making.
Where I'm going with this question is what other teams have shown success with this transition for Japanese pitchers?
I would think that should play a part in the decision making.
Recent history suggests the transition from the NPB to MLB is not as huge as people want to believe. Here are the current MLB P from the NPB
Darvish (old now, was an ace)
Maeda, finished 3rd in ROY, finished 2nd in AL Cy in 2020 65-49 3.74 FIP, was never an "ace" in Japan
Senga
Ohtani
Kikuchi (mediocre, only got 56 million guaranteed from the Mariners, still made the all-star team in 2021 and 2.6 fWAR this season with Toronto
Dice K debuted with the Red Sox, in 2007!
Even beyond pitchers, Seiya Suzuki is an above average regular for the Cubs and Kim is quietly a borderline star for SD.
Where I'm going with this question is what other teams have shown success with this transition for Japanese pitchers?
I would think that should play a part in the decision making.
the mets kept senga to 6 days often. i think the pitch counts in japan are actually higher than mlb (i think yamamoto threw like 130 pitches in his final start there?) - but i agree with you, the mets recent success with the transition is something that i think is meaningful.
the dodgers brought over maeda in 2016 and he had a good rookie year. that's probably the most recent relevant example from the main competitors, though the blue jays have kikuchi in their rotation and he's gone through it so he'd probably have some similar advice as senga. he struggled his first few years (in seattle) but made the all star game his final year there before toronto.
money is usually the main factor and im not sure ive heard anything that makes me think that will be different here. also since the total amount he gets directly relates to the posting fee and what his previous team receives, it possibly creates more of a direct focus than others. i would imagine that NPB teams agree to postings with some kind of direct acknowledgement of wanting to get the maximum compensation.
of all the recent met pursuits this one reminds me most of Sherzer - who was rumored for a long time to be less likely than yamamoto has been to want to go to NY but was also in a situation where he very much wanted to push the $P market forward as much as he could. cohen closed that one w/ record $ and i think that would be my guess here too.
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Sources: As the Mets continue to monitor the starting pitching market, they have shown interest in former Met Seth Lugo.
Lugo had a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts for the Padres this season.
@mikemayer22
Sources: As the Mets continue to monitor the starting pitching market, they have shown interest in former Met Seth Lugo.
Lugo had a 3.57 ERA in 26 starts for the Padres this season.
securing quality depth throughout every slot of the BP is imo just as big of a need as getting an "ace". maybe a bigger one.
So yeah, Lugo is going to be starting with his next team 100%
He thought he had it in hand in the spring of 2017 after a breakout in the World Baseball Classic — he beat Venezuela and the U.S before starting Puerto Rico’s loss in the championship — but Lugo was stunned to learn he was still competing for a job when he rejoined Mets camp.
So he pushed even more. Then his elbow gave out. It was the last time he’d had a chance to ramp up for a rotation spot from the beginning to the end of spring training.
“I’ve always wanted to start,” Lugo said. “I feel like the last few years and in the offseason, having the chance to start and then right before spring training or during spring training there’s a change of plans. It was pretty frustrating. So coming in camp as a starter and all the way through camp as a starter, it’s been nice.”
So yeah, Lugo is going to be starting with his next team 100%
as long as he pitches like he did last year he will be a starter anywhere. at 34 and having only done it that 1 year it's a legitimate risk that he wont continue that way for the entire life of his next contract.
also had the pads had gotten to the postseason last year, do you think lugo was starting a playoff game over Yu, Snell, Musgrove, or Wacha?
you sign him with a guaranteed spot in the rotation to start knowing he has the flex and you may use it, not that it's a certainty - especially when the rotation trims in postseason.
yes and that is my entire point. in 2022 when the mets were making their postseason roster that same issue came up with both carrasco and walker, who basically became $19m worth of inactive roster spots.
if you are going to invest ~8-12m in a back of rotation pitcher, isn't it better if that player has a track record of being a good RP so they don't become useless in the postseason if they aren't 1 of the 4 best SP when the games matter most?
especially if they are 34 years old and dont have a long track record of handling 100+ innings. even last year Lugo only managed 146.
this is one of the features i liked about the severino signing, that more than 1 notable writer projected him as a high end relief option if he continues to struggle starting.
Prediction: Yamamoto will have the best split-finger among all MLB starting pitchers.
Prediction: Yamamoto will have an elite-grade curveball.
Prediction: Yamamoto might have a below-average cutter.
Prediction: Yamamoto should have elite command.
Prediction: Yamamoto’s height is likely irrelevant to the quality of his production, but it may be meaningful for the quantity.
"Nobody knows what they’ll get for sure, but it’s clear that the underlying data suggests that his future MLB team is getting an ace and that the only question is how many innings they’ll get for their trouble."
Perhaps the hope now is that those data-based scouting grades will ensure that teams are making a good decision when they fork over the biggest contract yet for a pitcher coming from Japan. We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination but also has not necessarily existed in one human being before. Link - ( New Window )
circling back to this for a second, how much is too much for yamamoto?
if he's projected to be a true ace at 25 years old, is $40m x 10 years really that crazy?
4 years ago pre-covid Cole got $36m for 9 years that will convert to 10 x $360m next year. he was entering his a29 so that deal will now take him through his age 38.
if yamamoto is the best starter under 30 years old on the market since cole, which would seem to be evident in his market,
and he's 4 years younger,
and the market has moved in the last 2 years to see 2 SP get $43m AAV,
and JDG got $37m off 2 injury riddled seasons at a34,
i just dont see how we arent looking at a 10+ year deal somewhere in the mid-30's for AAV.
maybe the final landing spot is something like 11x36.33m
and if you want to get really creative, maybe his team gives him something like a $100m signing bonus in return for deferring $100m of it on the back end like Ohtani did? LAD literally saves more $ than that from Ohtani in the next 2 years. if you are one of their competitors you have to think that type of flexibility was exactly what shohei had in mind in structuring his deal like he did.
hopefully this moves quickly so this doesnt become the ohtani sideshow part 2 but i think this is about to be one of most complex FA negotiations in mlb history. if it's all smoke and he ends up signing for something close to the projections with none of the teams doing anything aggressive it'd be shocking at this point.
doesn't think Yamamoto beats Cole's #. Either, Wolfe is really playing most of the media very well, or over 324 seems like a given (of course, he could take less than the top dollar to join his team of choice)
i have not once said yamamoto will cost too much. i want him to be a met at whatever # gets it done as long as cohen is willing to spend and not stop him from making any other moves.
my 2 questions have been:
1) if $ werent unlimited is 1 Yamamoto worth 2 proven top 20 starters and then some (including the reigning NL CY)?
2) what is too much? my post above outlines how even 400m doesnt seem like "too much" if the consensus evaluations of him are in line with eno (which they seem to be). in fact it's quite easy to go even higher. $38m x 12 = $456m + posting fee on top without deferrals would make him the new most expensive contract in baseball history over Ohtani by PV.
yankees have been connected to hicks and a few others.
other teams answers to those 2 questions are key to the mets winning the bidding war bc their $ is by far their biggest weapon.
if Stearns is as disciplined as he has seemed so far he too may have answers to those questions that fall short of where cohen is willing to go.
Quote:
I'm legitimately confused, seems like within the same day you'll say Yamamoto's cost will be too much, and then also 40 million per is reasonable
i have not once said yamamoto will cost too much. i want him to be a met at whatever # gets it done as long as cohen is willing to spend and not stop him from making any other moves.
my 2 questions have been:
1) if $ werent unlimited is 1 Yamamoto worth 2 proven top 20 starters and then some (including the reigning NL CY)?
2) what is too much? my post above outlines how even 400m doesnt seem like "too much" if the consensus evaluations of him are in line with eno (which they seem to be). in fact it's quite easy to go even higher. $38m x 12 = $456m + posting fee on top without deferrals would make him the new most expensive contract in baseball history over Ohtani by PV.
Eric,
100% not a call out but
"
i know nobody wanted to play this game but if the price gets painful enough that Yamamoto $ = 2 of the 3 lesser names i really think it's a coinflip which side ends up better. "
Safe to say he's not getting MORE THAN your 40 million number so what would be "painful enough"?
@jonmorosi
Sources: Reds active on free agent and trade markets as they search for a starting pitcher.
Shane Bieber, who has trained at Driveline this offseason, is one name they've checked on via trade.
Michael Wacha and Lucas Giolito are among their FA options.
@MLBNetwork
@MLB
Quote:
In comment 16321701 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
I'm legitimately confused, seems like within the same day you'll say Yamamoto's cost will be too much, and then also 40 million per is reasonable
i have not once said yamamoto will cost too much. i want him to be a met at whatever # gets it done as long as cohen is willing to spend and not stop him from making any other moves.
my 2 questions have been:
1) if $ werent unlimited is 1 Yamamoto worth 2 proven top 20 starters and then some (including the reigning NL CY)?
2) what is too much? my post above outlines how even 400m doesnt seem like "too much" if the consensus evaluations of him are in line with eno (which they seem to be). in fact it's quite easy to go even higher. $38m x 12 = $456m + posting fee on top without deferrals would make him the new most expensive contract in baseball history over Ohtani by PV.
Eric,
100% not a call out but
"
i know nobody wanted to play this game but if the price gets painful enough that Yamamoto $ = 2 of the 3 lesser names i really think it's a coinflip which side ends up better. "
Safe to say he's not getting MORE THAN your 40 million number so what would be "painful enough"?
Dan, also not a call out but im not sure you are reading what i said correctly.
which side ends up better = which side ends up producing the most in the future, which we dont know. if matt harvey was a free agent in 2015 at age 26 off the WS, how would that have worked out for the signing team relative to how insane the $200m+ market to sign him would have been?
just as many free agents get overpaid as paid correctly, perhaps more because the future is not easy to predict.
and yes spending hundreds of millions on any pitcher is a painful risk to take if money matters at all, which even for cohen it does. the ohtani contract is risk. extending alonso or signing soto will be risks too. and any pitcher is exponentially riskier than any hitter which is why insuring those contracts is multiples more. snell at 200m is a risk. the question is which risks are the best to take on and 1 benefit to signing 2 players instead of 1 is that it hedges some risk.
you posted the numbers a few weeks ago that roughly translated to 1 SP per MLB team ended up having TJS last year right? that would mean of the top 5-10 starters each team enters with on their depth chart, each carries a 10-20% chance of getting TJS. not saying anything of any other non-TJS injuries that could happen like quintana, jv, scherzer, now peterson over the last couple years.
welp 1 extra active roster spot/40 man spot for a veteran. sucks it happened but better now while FA are still available than later when they arent.
Quote:
torn ACL
welp 1 extra active roster spot/40 man spot for a veteran. sucks it happened but better now while FA are still available than later when they arent.
To be clear, they can't open a spot until ST.
@jonmorosi
Shōta Imanaga, winning pitcher in the WBC gold medal game, is drawing broad interest from @MLB
clubs, including the Dodgers, Mets, Red Sox, and Cubs.
Some in the industry believe he could receive an AAV in the $20 million range.
That is awful news.
68 OPS+ over his last 213 games
I think the point (correct me if I'm missing it Eric) Eric is trying to make is that if Yamamoto gets up into the 10yr/$350M+ range, you might be able to sign all of Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Seth Lugo for that same amount of guaranteed money. All things equal, it's nicer to have the bird in hand and consolidate the talent into one player, but you could make a case that the latter package offers similar value. Of course, other teams will be bidding for these players too so it's a matter of being easy to just add them.
I think the point (correct me if I'm missing it Eric) Eric is trying to make is that if Yamamoto gets up into the 10yr/$350M+ range, you might be able to sign all of Montgomery, Cody Bellinger and Seth Lugo for that same amount of guaranteed money. All things equal, it's nicer to have the bird in hand and consolidate the talent into one player, but you could make a case that the latter package offers similar value. Of course, other teams will be bidding for these players too so it's a matter of being easy to just add them.
i agree turner becomes an option they probably consider now but his defense at 3b was really bad in limited time last year (57 innings, -3 drs, -4 oaa).
and yes you are understanding correctly - id love to get yamamoto as id have loved to get ohtani or soto. but if you dont get them the world doesnt end, you should still be able to find quality players for your half billion dollars. and nobody can predict how the future goes. the rangers didnt give JDG what they gave him expecting Eovaldi to outproduce him for a fraction of the price.
this quote stearns has repeated articulating the brewers methodology is exactly right imo:
could see an invite like that as competition for baty. someone in sort of the last years gary sanchez position. that would fit the types of players stearns has been signing (lopez, sevy).
Coming off 213 games of a 68 OPS+, for context Baty had a 65 OPS+ last season, Marte 73
great call kd could really see that happening.
Coming off 213 games of a 68 OPS+, for context Baty had a 65 OPS+ last season, Marte 73
I think you are talking about two different roles on the team.
Wendle was signed as the Guillorme role last year. IF versatility. Not starting unless injuries.
Mauricio was basically taking Escobar's spot. Last year Escobar/Baty were splitting 3B and both getting regular ABs.
With Mauricio out, Mets will need a higher level player than Wendle, as they aren't going to give the kind of ABs they were going to give to Mauricio to Wendle.
Bench will be 3B rotation guy (was going to be whichever of Baty/Mauricio was not playing that day, though Mauricio can also play other positions; now would be an IKF/Urshela type.) Wendle (taking the Guillorme role), Narvaez, 4th OF (Stewart?)
Vientos could also see more PT at 3B and maybe there is no external option.
Quote:
Just isn’t viable which makes the rush to sign him somewhat confusing. Can’t have an absolute zero out there offensively and if that’s the case his value was what? Being a good teammate? Should they sign an Urshela type then what was the point of Wendle? Probably should have signed somebody who realistically could have played mostly every day at 3B if the kids failed, not a 34 year old
Coming off 213 games of a 68 OPS+, for context Baty had a 65 OPS+ last season, Marte 73
I think you are talking about two different roles on the team.
Wendle was signed as the Guillorme role last year. IF versatility. Not starting unless injuries.
Mauricio was basically taking Escobar's spot. Last year Escobar/Baty were splitting 3B and both getting regular ABs.
With Mauricio out, Mets will need a higher level player than Wendle, as they aren't going to give the kind of ABs they were going to give to Mauricio to Wendle.
Bench will be 3B rotation guy (was going to be whichever of Baty/Mauricio was not playing that day, though Mauricio can also play other positions; now would be an IKF/Urshela type.) Wendle (taking the Guillorme role), Narvaez, 4th OF (Stewart?)
Vientos could also see more PT at 3B and maybe there is no external option.
Wendle is supposed to be a viable fill-in option at multiple positions. The insurance if Baty/Mauricio both struggled was he? Not Jeff McNeil, as McNeil can't play 2 different positions at the same time. As for Mauricio playing other positions, where? Stearns said they had no plans to give him OF reps.
Would expect them to sign a 4th OF that plays CF that will get a lot of PT (Michael Taylor)
That would give them 1 extra guy. Perhaps Stewart doesn't make the team out of spring, or Vientos is optioned to AAA. More likely someone isn't healthy to start the year (ie. Marte)
Wendle (now 34) 84 wrC+ in 2022, 47 in 2023 (not a typo)
Wendle has very little OF experience (none since 2019) when he played 1 inning. Here is what fangraphs had to say
Wendle was signed with the IF spots taken up by Baty/Mauricio at 3B, Lindor at SS, and McNeil at 2B. Not a hell of a lot of PT, and you aren't going to be investing the kind of money you would in an Urshela/IKF type for a guy who is going to play once a week or so if everyone healthy.
Now that Mauricio is out, you get a 3B who you will be playing a lot more/hedging your bets with Baty
Wendle was signed with the IF spots taken up by Baty/Mauricio at 3B, Lindor at SS, and McNeil at 2B. Not a hell of a lot of PT, and you aren't going to be investing the kind of money you would in an Urshela/IKF type for a guy who is going to play once a week or so if everyone healthy.
Now that Mauricio is out, you get a 3B who you will be playing a lot more/hedging your bets with Baty
If they felt Mauricio was a viable 2b then he'd be getting reps there and he wasn't. Stearns made clear he viewed both as 3b.
"“If we go with some of those younger guys, particularly at third base, we are going to have to challenge them to improve [defensively],” Stearns said this week at the general managers’ meetings. “We weren’t good enough there defensively. We’re talking about Brett Baty and Ronny Mauricio: I think they have the ability and the physical tools to be a little bit better than they showed at the major league level last year, so that’s a great opportunity for them to prove that.”"
“His tools indicate that he can handle [third base], but we haven’t seen a ton of it,” Stearns said. “He is going to need some reps there, but I think he’s got the reaction time and he’s got the hands, so his skill sets indicate to me that he can handle it.”
They may be looking to move Steer to the OF most of the time, but they have Fraley, Friedl, and Benson there.
I'd expect they say no, but I'd call
They may be looking to move Steer to the OF most of the time, but they have Fraley, Friedl, and Benson there.
I'd expect they say no, but I'd call
Steer is the Reds new starting LFer
Cincinnati made a crowded infield situation even more crowded with its acquisition of Candelario. Steer is an infielder by trade, but he made 38 starts in the outfield in 2023 and will pegged for regular left field duty in 2024. Even with Steer slated to play mostly in the outfield next season, the Reds would still appear to have at least one more infielder than they have starting spots. Jonathan India remains a good bet to be traded.
@mikemayer22
Have to believe that David Stearns changes his thoughts on third base now a bit.
They really need someone that can at least cover third base (Justin Turner) if Baty doesn’t work out.
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Giolito
3x15= 45 for Lugo. Solid deal for them.
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Giolito
7. Wacha
8. Flaherty
9. Paxton
10. Manaea
@ByRobertMurray
Breakdown of Seth Lugo’s three-year, $45 million contract, per source:
2024: $15 million.
2025: $15 million.
2026: $15 million player option.
@anne__rogers
And the #Royals aren't done. They're also close to finalizing a deal with right-handed reliever Chris Stratton, source tells http://MLB.com. It would be a one-year deal with a player option for 2025, source says.
1. Yamamoto
2. Montgomery
3. Snell
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Clevinger
7. Wacha
8. Giolito
9. Lorenzen
10. Flaherty #Mets
"I guess the league has been kind of more analytic as far as being able to figure out how to throw certain pitches, how to get certain movements on certain pitches. But I’m a little behind. That’s not something I was doing ever until this year.”
“Stuff that I’ve learned, I wish I would have known just going into the offseason last year, because I got a few building points that I think I can improve a mile or two or velocity or sustain velocity," said Lugo. “So there are things I’m excited for, to get in the weight room and conditioning-wise that I think is going to really help me in the future.”
as a met 2011-2020 2.5m
as a met 2021-2022 6.85m (a more cohesive met org would have extended him ahead of 2021 in return for like 15m gtd with team options)
as a padre in 2023 8.75m
and now basically 2.5x his whole career earnings guaranteed by KC.
steamer has him at 2 wins next year which should be a little surplus on 15m so if he ages appropriately at 1.5 wins in 2025 (age 35) and 1 win in 2026 (age 36) it will be a neutral contract. maybe a lot to ask health wise but having the flex to pen if necessary adds a little protection on that down the road if he cant handle starters innings.
"I guess the league has been kind of more analytic as far as being able to figure out how to throw certain pitches, how to get certain movements on certain pitches. But I’m a little behind. That’s not something I was doing ever until this year.”
“Stuff that I’ve learned, I wish I would have known just going into the offseason last year, because I got a few building points that I think I can improve a mile or two or velocity or sustain velocity," said Lugo. “So there are things I’m excited for, to get in the weight room and conditioning-wise that I think is going to really help me in the future.”
not surprising given what we know about the pitching lab basically starting over and only opening a few months ago.
tough to tell what he is now, a lot of the metrics bounced back and he gained velocity out of the bp but who knows what that would look like starting.
steamer does project him at 2 fwar though and id imagine there wont be many cheaper players on the market at that projection. median projection of 2x12m seems a little high, if it comes to it a bigger 1 year like severino maybe.
Quote:
always been the Manaea guy (I remember our Bassitt/Manaea debates) but he might be a decent fit.
tough to tell what he is now, a lot of the metrics bounced back and he gained velocity out of the bp but who knows what that would look like starting.
steamer does project him at 2 fwar though and id imagine there wont be many cheaper players on the market at that projection. median projection of 2x12m seems a little high, if it comes to it a bigger 1 year like severino maybe.
He's basically Trevor Williams now. 37 appearances 10 starts. The Mets could use somebody like that
Should also be noted that as bad as Giolito was post-trade (and he was), his final 5 starts included back to back starts (14 innings 5 hits 2 er 1 walk 21 k's) and over his final 12 starts went 6+ 6 times, 5+ 8 times, and 3 or less runs 5 times
So it wasn't as if he traded and then absolutely tanked. When he was bad, he was really bad, why? I couldn't tell you but he also had some dominant starts post-trade.
Lugo 3 for 45? Giolito 4 for 60 seems fair to me (Clemens projection).
Quote:
actual quotes are pretty damning to the Mets IMHO
"I guess the league has been kind of more analytic as far as being able to figure out how to throw certain pitches, how to get certain movements on certain pitches. But I’m a little behind. That’s not something I was doing ever until this year.”
“Stuff that I’ve learned, I wish I would have known just going into the offseason last year, because I got a few building points that I think I can improve a mile or two or velocity or sustain velocity," said Lugo. “So there are things I’m excited for, to get in the weight room and conditioning-wise that I think is going to really help me in the future.”
not surprising given what we know about the pitching lab basically starting over and only opening a few months ago.
thinking about this a little more the comments are almost entirely reflective of the wilpon era:
ahead of 2021 season, cohen only got control of the team 4 months ahead of ST
ahead of 2022 season, even if they had the pitching lab built and ready to go there was the lockout from dec-march
nobody wants to hear this is day 1 when it's year 4, but i think 5 years from now we are going to look at the 2021-2023 years as a preamble ahead of whatever the cohen reign ultimately becomes. glimmers of hope like lindor, the 2022 season, the 2023 trade deadline mixed with a lot of spoilage from not having been able to get stearns or someone like him earlier. hopefully he lives up to the hype.
Quote:
In comment 16322085 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
always been the Manaea guy (I remember our Bassitt/Manaea debates) but he might be a decent fit.
tough to tell what he is now, a lot of the metrics bounced back and he gained velocity out of the bp but who knows what that would look like starting.
steamer does project him at 2 fwar though and id imagine there wont be many cheaper players on the market at that projection. median projection of 2x12m seems a little high, if it comes to it a bigger 1 year like severino maybe.
He's basically Trevor Williams now. 37 appearances 10 starts. The Mets could use somebody like that
im a trevor fan but he only got 2/13m last year, for 2/24m id be hoping for a more solid sp like quintana (which was probably maeda).
but im pretty sure the mets non-aggression in that market place indicates that their plan A is going to dictate the middle/back end as it should. Meaning plan B might be 2 more quality multi-year pitchers (snell/monty + imanaga/giolito) as opposed to Yamamoto and more of a 1-2 year back end flex guy (like Manaea).
ive never been a big hefner believer so dont take my comments as an endorsement of him or even a reflection on the quality of people they've had (or still have). their track record going forward with the new pitching lab will sink or swim with the outcomes.
my comments are in terms of organization building and how there wasn't much time for the new mets organization to build out that function well while he was here. the cohen mets probably hired hundreds of people just starting their work between the day he bought the team and the day lugo signed in SD, and then perhaps dozens or even hundreds more since. it took them almost 3 years to get the pitching lab open.
Short term deal, I don't see any downside tbh. He's versatile enough where both Baty and Vientos can get ample PT if they deserve it.
Short term deal, I don't see any downside tbh. He's versatile enough where both Baty and Vientos can get ample PT if they deserve it.
i think martino said they could go in that direction. i didnt realize but fg has urshela projected at 8m so he's not the cheap option i thought he may be. turner at 14m is a better fit for the role unless urshela's market is way below that.
Quote:
Justin Turner just makes too much sense (if he's willing to take 1 year or 1+ team option (buyout)). 3b/2b/1b/DH, Turner/Stearns have both spoken fondly of each other. ++ clubhouse guy. Hopefully, Baty wins the 3b job outright, would be a great "problem" to have
Short term deal, I don't see any downside tbh. He's versatile enough where both Baty and Vientos can get ample PT if they deserve it.
i think martino said they could go in that direction. i didnt realize but fg has urshela projected at 8m so he's not the cheap option i thought he may be. turner at 14m is a better fit for the role unless urshela's market is way below that.
I'd much prefer Cohen "overpaying" Turner vs. Urshela if those are the choices.
@Russ_Dorsey1
Sources: The Dodgers are meeting with free-agent RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto today in Los Angeles as he continues to meet with teams.
@JonHeyman
Mets checked in late on old friend Seth Lugo but never made an offer
Conversation
Scott Merkin
@scottmerkin
Hendriks has had conversations with other teams since White Sox declined his $15 million option for '24 and he became a free agent. One of those teams who has talked to him is the Cubs, per Hendriks.
@mikemayer22
Have to believe that David Stearns changes his thoughts on third base now a bit.
They really need someone that can at least cover third base (Justin Turner) if Baty doesn’t work out.
Turner almost becomes a priority at this point, despite the fact that he doesn't play at the hot corner like he used to both quality-wise as well as quantity-wise. I'd try and sign him for a year or a year and an option with a high AAV to get him here.
Jung Hoo Lee to Giants. 6 years, $113M. opt out after 4 years.
Jung Hoo Lee to Giants. 6 years, $113M. opt out after 4 years.
just keep peeling off whatever $ possible to teams meeting with yamamoto. giants payroll has mostly been around 175m, highest was 208m in 2018. that lee deal should take them right around 170m.
ill be pleasantly surprised if im over-hyping the scale of whatever yamamoto deal ends up being. if thats the case it may even move quicker than we think, though i suppose that could happen in either scenario depending on how aggressive teams are already. we now know of 4 total meetings i think so the lowest spender moving on with a big contract elsewhere seems maybe notable.
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Mets had interest here. This deal is significantly more than what most outlets predicted. MLBTR had 5/50.
Quote:
To SF
Jung Hoo Lee to Giants. 6 years, $113M. opt out after 4 years.
just keep peeling off whatever $ possible to teams meeting with yamamoto. giants payroll has mostly been around 175m, highest was 208m in 2018. that lee deal should take them right around 170m.
ill be pleasantly surprised if im over-hyping the scale of whatever yamamoto deal ends up being. if thats the case it may even move quicker than we think, though i suppose that could happen in either scenario depending on how aggressive teams are already. we now know of 4 total meetings i think so the lowest spender moving on with a big contract elsewhere seems maybe notable.
Giants have been looking to spend money for multiple off-seasons but have been turned down. They are 100% still involved on Yamamoto. Martino just said on SNY Yankees and Dodgers remain the favorites
Link - ( New Window )
and the people who go out are going to be some of the teams who have already started committing money to other players.
if the yankees didnt already get soto they would be in even more than they already are. same with lad/ohtani. same with sfg and lee.
let's hope bellinger to tor happens too.
“ The Giants are in a debt position that is the envy of every National League club, even including the Dodgers and very much including the Cubs. Their ballpark is paid off, it is just as beautiful as the day it opened and it has proven to be the revenue generator that Magowan and Baer envisioned. They have more mid- to long-term payroll flexibility than any team in the major leagues. They don’t even forecast to have any players who will become hyper-expensive in salary arbitration in the foreseeable future. Whenever things get back to normal, their operating income should rise to elite levels once again. And 2020 was going to be a leaner year in terms of Giants ticket sales, anyway, as fans anticipated another rebuilding season.
Now their rebuilding effort is one year further along and their big-dollar contracts are ever closer to falling off the books. Even in a year in which the sport was forced to stand still for so long, the Giants were able to make progress in president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi’s reimagining of the major-league roster.
The more financially stable and healthy a franchise is, the more it is able to absorb an economic downturn — or even a catastrophe.”
Would give insurance at 1B too and if Vientos doesnt take the DH role, he could fill in there too.
Nothing you guys don't already know though.
because it's rare teams upend their entire economic structure in 1 offseason. we all remember arson judge and the correa situation. had they signed judge i dont think they would have also still been in on correa to the extent they were even if they weren't "out".
teams budgets arent infinite (even cohen).
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Mets had interest here. This deal is significantly more than what most outlets predicted. MLBTR had 5/50.
Same thing happened with Yoshida. When he signed it was being predicted he would get about half of what he did (90 million)
Quote:
Article on the Giants from 2021 regarding their money situation. Unclear why you would think Lee would stop them from going for Yamamoto.. offered Judge *400* million Link - ( New Window )
because it's rare teams upend their entire economic structure in 1 offseason. we all remember arson judge and the correa situation. had they signed judge i dont think they would have also still been in on correa to the extent they were even if they weren't "out".
teams budgets arent infinite (even cohen).
Texas Rangers did just that. 2021 payroll 94 million, 20th in baseball, 2022 142 million OD, 2023 OD 196. Spent 500 million on Semien and Seager the same
Offseason
Center fielder/1B Cody Bellinger now squarely on those teams' radar, along with the Giants.
Center fielder/1B Cody Bellinger now squarely on those teams' radar, along with the Giants.
So Giants still in on Bellinger. He won’t cost 300 million but it sure does suggest they have money to spend . He’s going to get 200 or so when it’s all said and done
Quote:
this tweet was re: lee:
Mike Mayer
@mikemayer22
·
Mets had interest here. This deal is significantly more than what most outlets predicted. MLBTR had 5/50.
Same thing happened with Yoshida. When he signed it was being predicted he would get about half of what he did (90 million)
just checked yoshida's median last year was 4x14m.
lee's was 4x15m.
mlbtr hadnt even predicted on yoshida last year so i guess they've been more off than the rest (who have all also been low).
Quote:
In comment 16322222 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Article on the Giants from 2021 regarding their money situation. Unclear why you would think Lee would stop them from going for Yamamoto.. offered Judge *400* million Link - ( New Window )
because it's rare teams upend their entire economic structure in 1 offseason. we all remember arson judge and the correa situation. had they signed judge i dont think they would have also still been in on correa to the extent they were even if they weren't "out".
teams budgets arent infinite (even cohen).
Texas Rangers did just that. 2021 payroll 94 million, 20th in baseball, 2022 142 million OD, 2023 OD 196. Spent 500 million on Semien and Seager the same
Offseason
i didnt say it never happens just that it's rare. the padres are the other team who did it over the last few years and as it turned out they were far enough over their skis they went beyond the debt limits.
every dollar any of these teams give to other players is a dollar less they have to give to yamamoto, and in the case of the teams approaching the various luxury taxes $2-3 more.
and if someone else decides to spend over their skis like SD did, all the power to them. that's 1 less team to compete with in future offseasons. ive been afraid of LAD far more than NYY this entire time for that reason and still am.
this is partially a guess but id imagine part of why they keep losing bidding wars is because players may not be the most confident they will continue spending on more after they go in. they dont want to be both first and last. if they have other options. if they dont as it appeared correa didnt they will sign there.
didnt it come out yesterday that ohtani offered the same deferred contract to all the teams involved?
the payroll value of the contract ($460m),
and the fact that it's not the current owners cash problems for 10 years,
and the extra revenue from signing ohtani made that contract a no brainer for anyone.
that's $700m even the wilponzis would have spent.
other than eno (who was the only writer ive seen suggest "400") this is one of the higher predictions for yamamoto and it still feels very low to me. it seems kind of crazy to me the mets wouldn't beat the cole contract at the very least for a player that much younger.
Age: 25
2023 (Orix Buffaloes, Japan Pacific League): Stats
Team prediction: Yankees
Yamamoto is the most sought-after free agent remaining on the market. When the offseason began, it was believed he would get a contract in the $200 million to $220 million range, but now several front-office executives believe he will get closer to $300 million. Why such a big swing? It’s rare for a top-of-the-rotation starter to hit free agency at such a young age and it’s thought that the bidding war among teams, including many big-market clubs, will drive up the price.
Best fits: Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, Red Sox, Cubs
Contract prediction: Nine years, $304 million
2. Jordan Montgomery, LHP
Age: 30
2023 (Rangers/Cardinals): 4.1 WAR
Team prediction: Rangers
3. Blake Snell, LHP
Age: 31
2023 (Padres): 6.0 WAR
Team prediction: Mets
Snell went 14-9 with a 2.25 ERA and 234 strikeouts over 32 starts. He didn’t allow a run in five of his last six starts and was one of the bright spots for the Padres in a disappointing season. However, he’s only pitched 130 innings or more in two of his eight seasons, although he did win a Cy Young Award both years (2018 with Tampa Bay and this year with San Diego). Snell’s market has been quiet but most team executives believe that if Yamamoto declines the Mets’ offer, they will pivot to Snell.
Best fits: Mets, Red Sox, Giants, Dodgers
Contract prediction: Six years, $162 million
has mets mentioned with Giolito but him choosing LAD for 1 year 15m.
Where will the top remaining MLB free agents sign? Predicting their new teams, contracts - ( New Window )
He is expected to return to baseball activity in 10 to 12 months. As a result, he will miss the entire 2024 season.
Link - ( New Window )
@AzoulayHaron
·
3m
BREAKING: The Dodgers are on the verge of acquiring RHP Tyler Glasnow, and OF Manuel Margot sources tell
@MLBNerds
.
this would be +35m for LAD and put their lux tax payroll around $260m.
plus kershaw still out there unsigned. he's estimated at another 1x20m. plus buehler, gonsolin, sheehan, miller, pepiot, may. how many yachts can they water ski behind?
well cross pepiot off my list i guess.
steamer projos for next year:
kershaw 1.8 (presumably)
glasnow 3.8
miller 2.8
buehler 2.2
sheehan 1.6
stone 1.1
may maybe late season
ohtani back next season
if they spend $300m+ on yamamoto on top of all that, man.
i assume they are done with urias no matter what since it was his 2nd strike and no contract but his case just got passed over to da.
i think the texas thing was him floating something to keep them honest knowing they were out there looking at all the top names. he was still 13-5 last year with a sub 3 era and on a 1 year deal is a no brainer.
i dont know if its yamamoto fomo or what but especially for lad, spending the $ they have left on glasnow + imanaga + hader or some combo like that seems like a wiser investment than another huge chunk on 1 player. but maybe that's just wishful thinking for mets.
I think he wrote it before LAD got Glasnow, so he doesn't mention that for them. not sure if intentional or not but he lists the teams LAD, NYY, NYM.
Rarely does Dodgers president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman sign free agents at the top of the market. Shohei Ohtani was an exception, but that deal was likely fueled by business interests as much as it was by baseball considerations.
Yamamoto would be a purely baseball pursuit, particularly when any marketing benefit would be muted by the presence of Ohtani. But the massive deferrals in Ohtani’s 10-year, $700 million contract might provide an immediate boost for the Dodgers in their pursuit of Yamamoto.
In one sense, the timing lines up almost perfectly.
Ohtani will receive $2 million in each year of his deal, with $68 million deferred. The Dodgers, however, will not need to fund his 2024 deferral until July 1, 2026. The balance of Yamamoto’s posting fee would be due just before that. The team that signs him must pay 50 percent of the fee within the first 14 days, another 25 percent within 12 months and the final 25 percent within 18.
The Dodgers met with Yamamoto on Tuesday. Between injuries, free-agent departures and the major elbow surgery that will prevent Ohtani from pitching in ’24, the team badly needs starting pitching. Assuming Yamamoto is willing to play alongside Ohtani — no team has ever had two Japanese superstars of such magnitude — he looms as a rather obvious answer.
Yankees
Yamamoto is said to enjoy the spotlight, which makes him a natural fit for New York as well as Los Angeles. The Yankees, even coming off a down year, remain one of the glamor teams in the sport. And they already have traded for Juan Soto, along with fellow outfielders Trent Grisham and Alex Verdugo.
The interesting part of the Yankees’ pursuit of Yamamoto is that signing him might diminish their appetite for retaining Soto, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the season. Owner Hal Steinbrenner repeatedly has shown there are limits to his spending. And consider the obligations the Yankees would face if they signed Soto on top of Yamamoto long-term:
Aaron Judge: Earning $40 million annually through 2031.
Gerrit Cole: Earning $36 million annually through 2028. If he opts out at the end of the year, the Yankees can void his decision and retain him by tacking on another $36 million season to the end of his deal.
Giancarlo Stanton: Averaging $26.6 million guaranteed annually, including a $10 million buyout for 2028.
Carlos Rodón: Earning $27 million annually through 2028.
Yamamoto: A 10-year deal would take him through 2033.
Soto: His agent, Scott Boras, almost certainly will seek to beat Ohtani’s discounted present value of $460 million. So, let’s assume the floor for Soto is 10 years, $500 million, with no deferrals.
So, combining those salaries and estimates, we’re talking almost $215 million annually for six players from 2025 to 2027, and considerable sums beyond.
None of that should deter the Yankees from going hard after Yamamoto, particularly when they are hardly guaranteed to retain Soto. At his introductory news conference Tuesday, Soto said he has “the best agent in the league and I put everything on him and let him do his magic for me.” Interpret that as you will.
Mets
Perhaps not even Ohtani fit the Mets’ “2025 and beyond” plan better than Yamamoto. Unlike Ohtani, Yamamoto will not cost the team that signs him a draft pick. He is four years younger than Ohtani. And his future as a pitcher is not in question.
For Mets owner Steven Cohen, that combination of factors should prove irresistible. If Cohen chooses, he can tell Yamamoto’s agent, Joel Wolfe of Wasserman Media Group, that he will top any offer by $50 million. What exactly would stop him?
Cohen declined to compete with the Yankees for Judge, perhaps because the Mets had greater needs, perhaps out of deference for Steinbrenner, who supported Cohen’s problematic bid to become owner. Yamamoto is a different story, an undeniably outstanding fit.
The danger for Cohen is being used as a stalking horse for a team Yamamoto prefers, perhaps even the Yankees. But the Mets last season successfully incorporated Kodai Senga, a former teammate of Yamamoto’s with Team Japan. Senga has spoken highly of Yamamoto and is also represented by Wolfe.
As one rival executive put it, “If you’re not signing Yamamoto, what’s the point of being Steve Cohen?”
the mets only have 1 path to getting him, which is a crazy price tag, and that path isn't even a guarantee. but as long as somebody pays a crazy price they have done all they can do and can pivot to the next best options with 1 less competitor in the market. being used as a stalking horse isnt a danger, it's a necessity.
Rosenthal: Yoshinobu Yamamoto has choices. Here’s a look at his suitors - ( New Window )
Nightengale says Yamamoto still has meetings with both Boston and Toronto upcoming
Snell and SF feels like a good fit.
if Mets miss on Yamamoto i think their preferred backup is probably Montgomery and Imanaga, which the only downside would be a very left handed rotation - which is probably another reason they moved quick on a power righty with Severino.
And yet. Despite all this, most sources with direct knowledge of Yamamoto’s intentions say that the Mets have somehow climbed into a solid position. The vibe began to shift after Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns visited Yamamoto in Japan two weeks ago.
Now, sources with direct knowledge put the Mets in the top two or three candidates for Yamamoto (note to aggregators, human and artificial: that’s an estimate from sources, not an exact list of rankings; there is no clear frontrunner).
Ultimately, finishing second or third on Yamamoto will be the same as finishing sixth. You either get the player or you don’t. But it’s notable that, as this free agency rounds its final turn, the Mets are at least contenders.
Frontrunners? They never have been.
But somehow, despite all the factors working against them, the Mets do have a chance.
Could underdog Mets actually land coveted free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Steve Cohen and company appear to have steadily improved their standing - ( New Window )
i think end of day LAD will not climb to the NY prices and instead pivot to a Hader + Imanaga + Kershaw combo (plus Glasnow). That feels more like their investing style.
Unless there's some kind of ohtani recruiting factor at play with yamamoto. he very well may pick LAD/NYY but i dont think they will be the high $.
anyone offering the most money is going to be in the final 2-3. especially if they are the team who spends the most money.
in back to back offseasons the mets have signed the 2 most expensive by aav contracts in mlb history. only 2 over 40m. as long as they were interested in yamamoto they were going to end up right where they are now.
their best fortune in all of this is that ohtani chose LAD and Soto got to NY. had those 2 things not happened then the bidding would have been even more super charged.
""I don't know how to answer that," Kershaw said when asked about potentially walking away from the sport. His statement about the surgery did at least leave open the door to returning, saying he was "hopeful" to pitch at some point next summer."
If Kershaw is going to play in 2024, the Rangers and Dodgers are the two most likely landing spots. The Dodgers are the only franchise he's ever played for since being selected with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft.
""I don't know how to answer that," Kershaw said when asked about potentially walking away from the sport. His statement about the surgery did at least leave open the door to returning, saying he was "hopeful" to pitch at some point next summer."
If Kershaw is going to play in 2024, the Rangers and Dodgers are the two most likely landing spots. The Dodgers are the only franchise he's ever played for since being selected with the No. 7 overall pick in the 2006 MLB draft.
maybe i dont remember which post you mean specifically, i was only mentioning him for salary reasons - which hes projected at 20m. whether they sign him now or later i think they are likely anticipating that in their budget.
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Giolito
7. Wacha
8. Flaherty
9. Paxton
10. Manaea
Top remaining FA SP (@keithlaw
) (I'm skipping Kershaw as he's not going to be a Met)
1. Yamamoto
2. Montgomery
3. Snell
4. Stroman
5. Imanaga
6. Clevinger
7. Wacha
8. Giolito
9. Lorenzen
10. Flaherty
@mlbtraderumors
top 10 remaining FA SP
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Imanaga
5. Giolito
6. Stroman
7. Flaherty
8. Wacha
9. Clevinger
10. Lorenzen
kershaw has only pitched about 20 games per year for the last 3 years and we've seen this same offseason dance with him each of the prior 2 offseasons:
DEC 5 2022 Signed a 1 year $20 million contract with Los Angeles (LAD)
MAR 11 2022Signed a 1 year $17 million contract with Los Angeles (LAD)
he has been battling injuries for the last half decade and they still pay him and he still makes 20 starts with a sub-3 era. he is the lad sp zombie. maybe this year is the year it changes but there is no way they arent at least leaving open the possibility of a return, which they'd need to budget for.
2021 his first start was opening day
2022 his first start was April 13th
2023 his first start was opening day
2024 his first start (if it comes at all) will be in July/August.
He's top 10 in both starts and innings pitched since 2018, and despite his post-trade troubles still posted a 3.79 era first 21 starts. He made a whopping 33 starts in 2023, 131 k's over 121 innings pre-trade.
As bad as he was post trade (and he was) his 2nd start with Cleveland 7 innings 3 hits 2 er 0 walks 9 k's, and his 3rd start with Cleveland 7 innings 2 hits 0 runs 1 walks 12 k's) even his 4th start.. 5.1 innings 3 er
Starts 3-4-5 with LAA 18 innings 15 hits 21 k's 4.00 era/3.87 FIP. So yeah, the overall numbers post trade were really bad but he still made 7 starts allowing 4 or less runs post trade,6 starts 3 or less.
He's no longer the all-star caliber guy but he'll only be 30 in July, not the worst thing to have an innings eater who can miss bats, especially with a likely ??? bullpen on paper
Quote:
It’s obvious to note that Cohen holds a financial advantage over all other suitors, though it is not known if Yamamoto will sign with the highest bidder. Plus, Cohen tends to be careful about being used to drive up prices -- after months of speculation that he would blow away managerial free agent Craig Counsell, Cohen actually put in the lowest bid, below even Milwaukee’s.
And yet. Despite all this, most sources with direct knowledge of Yamamoto’s intentions say that the Mets have somehow climbed into a solid position. The vibe began to shift after Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns visited Yamamoto in Japan two weeks ago.
Now, sources with direct knowledge put the Mets in the top two or three candidates for Yamamoto (note to aggregators, human and artificial: that’s an estimate from sources, not an exact list of rankings; there is no clear frontrunner).
Ultimately, finishing second or third on Yamamoto will be the same as finishing sixth. You either get the player or you don’t. But it’s notable that, as this free agency rounds its final turn, the Mets are at least contenders.
Frontrunners? They never have been.
But somehow, despite all the factors working against them, the Mets do have a chance.
Could underdog Mets actually land coveted free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Steve Cohen and company appear to have steadily improved their standing - ( New Window )
The Counsell note *should* make those who think they scrambled for plan B in Mendoza feel a little bit better.
He's top 10 in both starts and innings pitched since 2018, and despite his post-trade troubles still posted a 3.79 era first 21 starts. He made a whopping 33 starts in 2023, 131 k's over 121 innings pre-trade.
As bad as he was post trade (and he was) his 2nd start with Cleveland 7 innings 3 hits 2 er 0 walks 9 k's, and his 3rd start with Cleveland 7 innings 2 hits 0 runs 1 walks 12 k's) even his 4th start.. 5.1 innings 3 er
Starts 3-4-5 with LAA 18 innings 15 hits 21 k's 4.00 era/3.87 FIP. So yeah, the overall numbers post trade were really bad but he still made 7 starts allowing 4 or less runs post trade,6 starts 3 or less.
He's no longer the all-star caliber guy but he'll only be 30 in July, not the worst thing to have an innings eater who can miss bats, especially with a likely ??? bullpen on paper
i think the reason giolito is quiet is because he is likely to prefer a pillow contract. he is in a similar situation to conforto last year but for different reasons.
i havent seen any 2-3 year multi-year projection that seems good enough to stop him from taking a 1x20m and re-entering the market next year hoping to get $100m+. a good year (3+ fwar) would likely land him something comparable to whatever montgomery gets this year.
2021 his first start was opening day
2022 his first start was April 13th
2023 his first start was opening day
2024 his first start (if it comes at all) will be in July/August.
maybe im just going by the aggregate projections (which include all the guesses from execs who talk to heyman, bowden, etc). some had him lower like 12m, some had him higher above 20m (including heymans experts and bowden).
i do recall there were 1-2 times in there prior where kershaw had the back and arm issues that made his situation very tbd. if he was considered fully healthy the last few years he would have been making more than he made on 1 year deals, possibly by as much as double. he was worth almost as much on the field in 2022 (3.8 fwar) as scherzer and he got a contract less than half of what scherzer/jv got for just 1 year even though he was healthy enough to start opening day. and he's 3+ years younger than both. thats why i think he's always just going to choose to go back to LAD, this time included, and whatever the contract is it will be a steal for LAD even if it's no different than the severino contract. steamer has a higher projection on kershaw in 16 starts next year than severino in 26.
MLB agents, executives react to Shohei Ohtani’s wild Dodgers contract - ( New Window )
He grew up a Dodgers fan, so he ignored paying attention to teams the Dodgers played, ignored that players like Nomo/Shinjo etc played for the Mets, ignored that Kaz Matsui, Masato Yoshii, Shingo Takatsu,Kazuhisa Ishii, Tsuyoshi Shinjo (all managers currently in Japan) once played for the Mets? Ignored the 2015 WS completely
any deferrals/CBT games help the competition more than the mets, so i think id go the opposite way to make this as player favorable as possible with a straight 10 years $400m, year 5 opt out, and structure something like $100m cash up front signing bonus with flat salaries after that and with the 62m posting fee on top of all that.
that is a $462m investment, with $192m year 1 cash before accounting for CBT taxes, and opposite of the ohtani contract, the $100m straight to yamamoto actually makes it a more valuable deal. if he lives on his $30m salary and keeps all $100m in an interest generating bank account with 0 risk it's conservatively $105m in 12 months.
without deferral games $400m against the CBT payroll for 10 years would be $40m. if a CY winner like Snell costs $30m is it worth paying Yamamoto 1/3 more plus taxes? i have a hard time saying yes to that but a 25 year old ace is a unicorn. i have a hard time remembering the last one that was on a free agent market.
Rays Metrics
@RaysMetrics
Minor leaguers since the start of 2022 who have both a K% < 19% AND a SLG > .550
1. Junior Caminero (151 wRC+)
2. Jonny Deluca (135 wRC+)
3. Dominic Canzone (135 wRC+)
(min. 600 PA in that span)
well eno is the only person i've seen mention "400m".
the highest projection ive seen (bowden) has "only" gone up to $300m.
so i view a $400m suggestion around 50-100m higher than what is currently viewed as the projection, and on top of that the upfront cash makes it a more valuable deal. it is the sticker shock of $700m to ohtani but without any games.
That seems very unlikely. Initial estimates within the industry were that Yamamoto would receive a contract worth north of $200 million, the largest of the offseason for a pitcher. That number has seemingly risen in recent weeks, with many now believing the right-hander will land a deal worth at least $250 million over eight years.
"
right and that seems to be the consensus, i also dont buy it.
if the mets didnt feel that way about yamamoto i find it hard to believe they'd be as all in on him as they appear to be.
so i'd be kind of shocked if they arent willing to push an offer into the 325-350m range.
are they willing to make him the 3rd 40m AAV SP ever over a much longer term before throwing a pitch in MLB?
with some kind of record setting signing bonus and a posting fee?
i dont know the answer to either of those questions because on face value it would seem crazy.
he didn't put it out there as reporting it was a throwaway line. you seemed to suggest that 400m isnt way beyond what pretty much any one has suggested so far.
eno's throwaway line is literally the only place ive seen it other than this thread.
Quote:
Eno isn't a reporter, he's an analyst. He's my favorite baseball follow on twitter and a great guy but I wouldn't read much into salary number tweets he's putting out there.
he didn't put it out there as reporting it was a throwaway line. you seemed to suggest that 400m isnt way beyond what pretty much any one has suggested so far.
eno's throwaway line is literally the only place ive seen it other than this thread.
I don't actually think Yamamoto is getting 400 million (unless it's some sort of Ohtani contract situation). I do think the Mets will offer more than Cole's 324. He very well may sign with NYY or LAD for less than that though.
which also noted with posting fee included, which would mean a $345m offer to yamamoto.
so 400m + posting fee on top, cash upfront is a pretty insane offer. mets may need an insane offer to get him though.
so that's the question, how insane are any of us willing to go?
Quote:
In comment 16322919 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Eno isn't a reporter, he's an analyst. He's my favorite baseball follow on twitter and a great guy but I wouldn't read much into salary number tweets he's putting out there.
he didn't put it out there as reporting it was a throwaway line. you seemed to suggest that 400m isnt way beyond what pretty much any one has suggested so far.
eno's throwaway line is literally the only place ive seen it other than this thread.
I don't actually think Yamamoto is getting 400 million (unless it's some sort of Ohtani contract situation). I do think the Mets will offer more than Cole's 324. He very well may sign with NYY or LAD for less than that though.
that's exactly how i see it, so if you are the mets i think you need to be thinking about not just being the best offer but the best offer by some margin. or with some kind of highly appealing sweetener (like signing bonus or opt out).
right so put on your david stearns hat, what's your #? i think cohen is saying yes to whatever stearns suggests.
just a human nature planning process guess, meetings this week, take the weekend to think about it, decision early next week so there's time to do whatever needs to get done before holidays.
if he has his heart set on lad or nyy or if 1 suitor offers something crazy like the mets may, maybe that speeds things up. would think the other pitching dominos behind him will move quickly once he decides.
Deal Alonso, let Diaz come back and come back strong, establish value, and deal him at the deadline (maybe to someone desperate and lump in Marte), get under the LT after this season when the bulk of the Scherzer and Verlander money are done ($17M left in 2025?) and let Stearns build a team.
half-assing it or patching shit together with duct tape and bubble gum just inflates payroll, inflates expectations and pisses off fans.
what gets even more interesting is if you include alvarez, because i dont think he is best in almost any those under the hood stats, and meanwhile most met fans would probably be thrilled with a $100m extension.
alvarez' defense is the biggest difference between him and the other 3, and the homers which hid some underlying mixed bags.
out of the other 3 i think picking who hits/doesnt is close to impossible which is why i wanted to get them as much opportunity as possible last year.
1/3 being a long term + starter is a good outcome.
2/3 would be great.
3/3 would be amazing, but obviously unlikely.
now i guess next year starts with 2, so hopefully 1 of baty/vientos takes the offensive leap above an 800 ops.
Deal Alonso, let Diaz come back and come back strong, establish value, and deal him at the deadline (maybe to someone desperate and lump in Marte), get under the LT after this season when the bulk of the Scherzer and Verlander money are done ($17M left in 2025?) and let Stearns build a team.
half-assing it or patching shit together with duct tape and bubble gum just inflates payroll, inflates expectations and pisses off fans.
missing on all 3 would take jeff wilpon as gm level incompetence. and even if they did, there would still be imanaga + giolito who arent projected that far off.
if they missed on all the above i agree with you but i dont think that's a likely scenario.
i also dont think getting some of the above would stop them from selling if it makes sense a la sherzer/verlander. i think that card is on the table any year the team doesnt perform competitively.
Vientos and Baty both just turned 24
Mauricio will be 23 to begin the season
Alvarez will be 22 for the entire 2024 season
If Alvarez repeats 2023 (while still good) some of the buzz likely won't remain. I'm not saying if he has an "okay" season vs. a breakout it means a whole lot but 2 years younger is still 2 years younger.
Vientos and Baty both just turned 24
Mauricio will be 23 to begin the season
Alvarez will be 22 for the entire 2024 season
If Alvarez repeats 2023 (while still good) some of the buzz likely won't remain. I'm not saying if he has an "okay" season vs. a breakout it means a whole lot but 2 years younger is still 2 years younger.
100% - that's why he was behind the others rightfully and only moved up when he did bc of injuries.
wasnt intending to knock alvarez just pointing out the general opinions of all 4 arent as black/white as reality. they all had some things they were good at (and in some cases very good at like vientos exit velo, bat speed, barrel%, and mauricio's linedrive rate) along with some negatives that they will either adjust or could hold them back. volpe is in a very similar boat with nyy btw. reasonably comparable debut season to alvarez except not quite as good.
@Ken_Rosenthal
says Yamamoto's decision will probably come down to where he wants to play, not how much money he wants.
@Ken_Rosenthal
says Yamamoto's decision will probably come down to where he wants to play, not how much money he wants.
which is why for mets to mets get him, it probably has to start with a big offer communicated preemptively or else they risk not even getting a chance to shoot that shot.
thats the math exercise of what is the # you go to preemptively to set the market? and what # is so high the value is better with others?
in some ways the mets are kind of like cubs in the counsell negotiation. $ aside, brewers were long considered the favored destination but the cubs came in hard with big money and i dont think it was even reported that he went back to milwaukee with a chance to match.
@FabianArdaya
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s meeting with the Dodgers yesterday at Dodger Stadium featured star power that included Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman….and Shohei Ohtani, sources tell me and @Ken_Rosenthal
.
this is a quick copy/paste from savant to a google sheet showing what all 4 were good at and bad at compared to alonso/lindor.
of the 4:
vientos had the best bat speed, power, etc but most swing/miss and ground balls.
mauricio had the least power but the least swing/miss and highest line drive rate, best consistent contact.
alvarez power was close but not as good as vientos, but he got better results from a better launch angle and a better barrel% while having slightly better swing/miss ground ball rates (prob thanks to better launch angle).
baty was kind of worst of all worlds but not by huge margins. he did combo a good line drive rate with a higher barrel rate and hh% than mauricios.
all in all 4 very similar mixed bag seasons. i would be curious to see how vientos' numbers differed when he played every day.
as crappy as the mauricio injury is, i also dont think it changes much for big league club in the sense that it is unlikely they were going to play all 4 of them every day to start the year. so depth takes a hit but baty/vientos get their openings. no good injuries but at least they have time to find a veteran option.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aFqjXe2rtFLAVpoQE3NqT8F0SYvxLwfrkwmwj-VkA-w/edit?usp=sharing - ( New Window )
@FabianArdaya
Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s meeting with the Dodgers yesterday at Dodger Stadium featured star power that included Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman….and Shohei Ohtani, sources tell me and @Ken_Rosenthal
.
im a lot more worried about LAD than NYY. more money to spend (than nyy), west coast, childhood team, ohtani, etc.
only slight comfort is that they've shown restraint in the past if the $ gets crazy.
b) cohen getting yamamoto at a crazy deal
c) yamamoto choosing the pinstripes in the evil empire rebirth
gotta be A right? almost feel like cohen is least bad option.
b) cohen getting yamamoto at a crazy deal
c) yamamoto choosing the pinstripes in the evil empire rebirth
gotta be A right? almost feel like cohen is least bad option.
Easily A. People are already saying the Dodgers are going to ruin the game, how it's bad for baseball, all-star team etc. The Yankees are coming off a down season, and have a good, not great roster even with Yamamoto. The Mets are seen as a mediocre roster even with Yamamoto and even with their 2023 payroll, it wasn't exactly loaded with name "stars" in their primes. LAD right now has 4 players on 1st ballot HOF tracks...
w/ glasnow = 245m
+yamamoto = 275m (median projection is $30m)
+hader = 295m (media projection is $20m)
median projection is 6.0 x $29.08M (174m)
so would imagine that means his current ask is 8x30m
and his deal eventually falls somewhere in between
they just dropped 2m + 2m incentives on daniel hudson on a minor league deal. fun times to be a dodger fan.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
·
14m
Dodgers are signing Daniel Hudson to a minor league deal, source confirms to The Athletic. It will be worth $2 million if he makes the major league club and up to $2 million more in performance bonuses based off games and games finished.
@JeffPassan
was on it.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
1h
the Mets bypassing Ohtani and every other major FA/trade target to put all their eggs in the Yamamoto basket means that if they don't get Yamamoto they basically tossed away the entire offseason by misjudging the market
Later this offseason, Lindor intends to replicate that experience with Baty, another young infielder who recently graduated from prospect status without quite establishing himself as a full-time big leaguer.
“I’m just focused on what the team wants,” Vientos said. “I’m just asking questions of Mendoza and trying to figure out what’s going on. I’m just focused on getting better. The little things that I want to improve on -- defense, offense, baserunning -- I just want to be [better] all around. I know I can be all around and provide for this team as much as possible.”
What's next for Mets' infield after Mauricio injury - ( New Window )
@mikemayer22
Mets have signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor league deal per @martinonyc
.
The 32-year-old struggled in 2023, but posted a .860 OPS and hit 13 home runs on 2022.
@mikemayer22
Mets have signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor league deal per @martinonyc
.
The 32-year-old struggled in 2023, but posted a .860 OPS and hit 13 home runs on 2022.
33 this season
@mikemayer22
Mets have signed outfielder Trayce Thompson to a minor league deal per @martinonyc
.
The 32-year-old struggled in 2023, but posted a .860 OPS and hit 13 home runs on 2022.
dynamic in 2022 across the board, bad in 2023. the OF version of jorge lopez.
Giants/Cubs/Blue Jays all rumored to be "the 2" so who knows?
By the union’s calculation, Ohtani’s $43.8 million average in present-day value is just above the previous AAV record of $43.3 million shared by Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, who is a Boras client.
“The market remains status quo,” Boras said. “No average annual value at or above $44 million. Clear evidence of a strategic and managed effort.”
Boras declined to specify who he believes “managed” that effort.
soto def not extending early for anything below a real $500m.
Boras says market for players ‘status quo’ in wake of Ohtani’s $700 million deal - ( New Window )
the meetings with SF and PHI seem like reasons for mild optimism, he's open to all the big markets on the coasts but not necessarily only the blue bloods.
ohtani's finalists were clearly a very particular list to what he wanted.
yamamoto's are all the biggest payrolls you'd want to drive up to the highest price possible.
NYM, NYY, LAD, and PHI were 4 of the top 5 OD payrolls last year. SD the other one and obviously we know they arent in play.
Verified
@AP_Sports
·
19m
Shohei Ohtani can opt out of his $700 million Dodgers deal if controlling owner Mark Walter or president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman lose their roles with the team, an AP source says.
As for Ohtani, I don't actually believe there were finalists. I think it's been LAD since day 1 and he did what it took to get what he wanted from LAD. I think they had a strong feeling he wanted to be there, made moves to make sure it was possible and it's happened. I heard the Cubs felt "used" in the process and I suspect Toronto does as well. I suspect when the season ended Ohtani expected to join the Dodgers.
Verified
@AP_Sports
·
19m
Shohei Ohtani can opt out of his $700 million Dodgers deal if controlling owner Mark Walter or president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman lose their roles with the team, an AP source says.
As for Ohtani, I don't actually believe there were finalists. I think it's been LAD since day 1 and he did what it took to get what he wanted from LAD. I think they had a strong feeling he wanted to be there, made moves to make sure it was possible and it's happened. I heard the Cubs felt "used" in the process and I suspect Toronto does as well. I suspect when the season ended Ohtani expected to join the Dodgers.
maybe but why not announce quicker then? he didnt drag any extra money out of anyone, he supposedly brought that same structure to all the teams involved and ended up taking what now looks like the sweetheart deal of all sweetheart deals from a cash flow perspective.
dodgers were obviously always the favorite for a reason, but with toronto and his touring their ST facility, it seemed like he gave them real consideration.
(Via Tom Verducci)
And yet they were termed finalists, before suddenly it was LAD or Toronto (supposedly) at the end
2023 $264
2022 $244
entering 2022 the Phillies had never paid CB taxes and they ended up paying 2.9m in penalties (20% of 14m over threshold).
the 2023 payroll likely cost them about 13m in penalties (30% of 40m) at the 2nd year repeater and staying under the surcharge levels.
this year they will enter 3rd time repeater so they are paying 50% of any overage. currently projected to pay 8m in taxes since they are 16m over.
spending another $30m on yamamoto will cost them:
50% base tax ($15m)
+12% surcharge on 20m of that ($2.4m),
and a 42.5% surcharge on 6m ($2.55m)
so in their history they've paid 15m in tax penalties (2022 + 2023).
yamamoto alone would cost them about $20m in tax penalties, bringing their current 2024 projection to $28m, plus a payroll +20m over the prior high and the posting fee on top.
all in all about a $100m year 1 cash outlay.
maybe they had a big revenue surge that makes it worth it but with nola, harper, turner all signed long term and wheeler a FA next year, seems like it would be a $ stretch. maybe they figure signing yamamoto now means 1 year with wheeler then letting wheeler walk next year instead of paying him similar.
not to be a broken record but in each of these it just becomes clearer the mets have 1 big weapon if they choose to use it. they can make it painful for everyone - except LAD.
i didnt like the way he handled the process to begin with, so if it was mostly a sham then it's a real bad look.
i respect his right to prioritize winning and i respect that he put his money where his mouth is, but no reason he couldnt have done all that by thanksgiving so the rest of his fellow players could move on with their own careers. even dragged the angels/fans though im sure they mostly saw it coming.
he has them at 35 on the 40 man, id imagine at least 4 more pitchers yet to be added, at least 2 from mayer's blurb above, and 1 hitter.
they are presently about $100m under what they put on the field on their active roster opening day last year, which assuming the LAD do the glasnow trade would give them the most room to operate relative to prior spend in mlb by a lot.
PLAYERS ADDED BY METS SO FAR THIS OFFSEASON - ( New Window )
I disagree that the Mets should mail it in on this season if they don't get Yamamoto.
Get a Montgomery or Imananga, add Giolito, and load up on bullpen.
They could be fine with for example:
Senga
Quintana
Giolito
Severino
Imananga
depth as Lucchesi, Megill, Peterson coming back. Not a lot of star power, but if the health is relatively good a lot of guys who can give you quality starts. If Severino gets close to back to form, things would look a whole lot better
bullpen:
Diaz
Stephenson
Raley
Yariel
Smith
Tonkin
Lopez
Adams or whoever
If it doesn't work, just sell off parts that aren't long-term for prospects like they did last year.
thankfully enough of the market is in tact they should have a rapid pivot ready to go next week should they not get him (in addition to whoever else they are going to bring in with him).
thankfully enough of the market is in tact they should have a rapid pivot ready to go next week should they not get him (in addition to whoever else they are going to bring in with him).
And to be clear, I think the Mets should be going all-in on Yamamoto and outbid everyone. He may simply prefer to play elsewhere
wow that is a great idea. honestly yelich is a near perfect fit for LF for a few years too, his range still grades out 80th percentile+. hit him 2nd or 3rd with lindor/alonso and that is a true middle order.
i wonder if you take out peralta and just swap marte + prospect for yelich if they do that. maybe kick in a little more cash since marte is more under water.
feel like keeping peralta is probably a bigger motivator for MIL and Mets could use the $ saved with Marte on a Giolito or Imanaga.
Quote:
i get why they are all in on yamamoto since it appears all the rest of MLB is in unanimous agreement with that assessment. never seen so many teams seem willing to spend beyond their typical levels for 1 player.
thankfully enough of the market is in tact they should have a rapid pivot ready to go next week should they not get him (in addition to whoever else they are going to bring in with him).
And to be clear, I think the Mets should be going all-in on Yamamoto and outbid everyone. He may simply prefer to play elsewhere
agreed. i think the bidding is so likely to produce a crazy contract that there's risk yamamoto "underdelivers", but with cohen that's not really a concern since it likely wont stop him from spending. the evaluation of yamamoto is unanimous enough from all the best orgs that it seems pretty reliable - he is apparently significantly more appealing than a 2 time CY winner. and he is only 25.
and yes, even Dice-K went 18-3 2.90 his second pro season, and that's now 16 years ago. The risk is far more in the length of any pitchers contract than his transition to the majors.
and yes, even Dice-K went 18-3 2.90 his second pro season, and that's now 16 years ago. The risk is far more in the length of any pitchers contract than his transition to the majors.
And correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Nomo or anyone else having the numbers that Yamamoto did in Japan.
Quote:
I said, you have to go back to 2007, the last time a big NPB pitcher came over and disappointed. Even Tanaka, he got hurt (which tends to happen with pitchers) and he still went 78-46 as a Yankee. He looked like a legitimate ace his first 3 seasons (39-16 3.12 era). Can't guarantee anything but the transition for Japanese pitchers has been very strong and even the position players (Suzuki is an above average regular, and Yoshida has lived up to his hype, strong hitter poor fielder, but that was known before they signed him, not a "translation to MLB" issue)
and yes, even Dice-K went 18-3 2.90 his second pro season, and that's now 16 years ago. The risk is far more in the length of any pitchers contract than his transition to the majors.
And correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't recall Nomo or anyone else having the numbers that Yamamoto did in Japan.
Correct. Yamamoto is the best NPB pitcher by almost any measure in the modern era of Japanese baseball. I'm not going to say the best in the history of Japanese baseball because the game has changed a lot and there are some legends over there they revere on the level of Sandy Koufax. But last 30+ seasons, it's Yamamoto.
peralta carries a ton of value, more than any asset in mets org except alvarez, so even if we took out marte the mets would have to add an acuna type to balance (or some package of pieces that add up to acuna's value).
i think my preference would be a simple yelich marte swap.
steamer projects marte at 1.2 fwar, yelich at 2.9.
ordinarily marte's injury would be a negative, but for brewers if he's hurt im not sure if it's insured but if it is they'd recoup even more $.
pretty sure a straight swap saves MIL $7m cash per year the next 2 years, plus the final 3 years at 26m each (78m total) after Marte expires.
yelich is only +$4m for CBT payroll over marte so the mets get a "cheap" upgrade for what is currently a potentially dead roster spot.
have to think Milwaukee knows that Yelich is a bit of a time bomb the same way Marte exploded in 2023 (and Cain for them a few years ago). the second Yelich has a down year he becomes dead salary only swappable for a bigger under water contract. may be one of those situations where it's better to be a year early than a year late.
and yes, even Dice-K went 18-3 2.90 his second pro season, and that's now 16 years ago. The risk is far more in the length of any pitchers contract than his transition to the majors.
100% the length of the deal and cost relative to the probability of injury any pitcher carries.
it is less a question of yamamoto the player and more a question of roster construction - is any 1 pitcher worth investing that much when they enter every season with a 1/10 chance they may need TJS?
or not to be repetitive is it better to have 2 pitchers at a slightly lesser tier who may not be as good but should/could provide twice as many innings and half as much risk?
Tanaka: 2.65
Matsuzaka: 3.06
Darvish: 1.99
Senga: 2.42
peralta carries a ton of value, more than any asset in mets org except alvarez, so even if we took out marte the mets would have to add an acuna type to balance (or some package of pieces that add up to acuna's value).
i think my preference would be a simple yelich marte swap.
steamer projects marte at 1.2 fwar, yelich at 2.9.
ordinarily marte's injury would be a negative, but for brewers if he's hurt im not sure if it's insured but if it is they'd recoup even more $.
pretty sure a straight swap saves MIL $7m cash per year the next 2 years, plus the final 3 years at 26m each (78m total) after Marte expires.
yelich is only +$4m for CBT payroll over marte so the mets get a "cheap" upgrade for what is currently a potentially dead roster spot.
have to think Milwaukee knows that Yelich is a bit of a time bomb the same way Marte exploded in 2023 (and Cain for them a few years ago). the second Yelich has a down year he becomes dead salary only swappable for a bigger under water contract. may be one of those situations where it's better to be a year early than a year late.
I would do the one involving prospects that you posted, I think Peralta has that much value to the Mets going forward but either way I'd do that.
I just think Senga, Peralta, Quintana, say Giolito, Severino is "decent" and bigger picture, Senga, Peralta, Christian Scott, Giolito and "unnamed 2024 FA added" suddenly sounds like a youngish, good rotation for a multi year run.
i saw heyman's video clip and his answer was kind of squishy, paraphrasing it was "we think there are 7 teams getting meetings and id call dodgers and yankees co-favorites right now but dont hold me to it that could change".
ohtani was an informed overwhelming favorite to LAD for a month+ and for like 48 hours the entire world thought he chose TOR, and in the end he announced his decision on instagram before any reporter.
at this point we will all probably learn yamamoto's decision at the same time as most of the reporters.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
Looks good in this clip
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
without peralta the evaluator actually has yellich more under water than marte. so that could be a straight up swap where the 2 teams just balance out the $ a little bit or add jarvis-y fringe prospects on either side.
peralta carries a ton of value, more than any asset in mets org except alvarez, so even if we took out marte the mets would have to add an acuna type to balance (or some package of pieces that add up to acuna's value).
i think my preference would be a simple yelich marte swap.
steamer projects marte at 1.2 fwar, yelich at 2.9.
ordinarily marte's injury would be a negative, but for brewers if he's hurt im not sure if it's insured but if it is they'd recoup even more $.
pretty sure a straight swap saves MIL $7m cash per year the next 2 years, plus the final 3 years at 26m each (78m total) after Marte expires.
yelich is only +$4m for CBT payroll over marte so the mets get a "cheap" upgrade for what is currently a potentially dead roster spot.
have to think Milwaukee knows that Yelich is a bit of a time bomb the same way Marte exploded in 2023 (and Cain for them a few years ago). the second Yelich has a down year he becomes dead salary only swappable for a bigger under water contract. may be one of those situations where it's better to be a year early than a year late.
I would do the one involving prospects that you posted, I think Peralta has that much value to the Mets going forward but either way I'd do that.
I just think Senga, Peralta, Quintana, say Giolito, Severino is "decent" and bigger picture, Senga, Peralta, Christian Scott, Giolito and "unnamed 2024 FA added" suddenly sounds like a youngish, good rotation for a multi year run.
i'd do either version, i think the brewers would be less likely to do any version with peralta. unless they just love acuna or something (possible).
the economics of a marte/yelich swap fit pretty well. mets could even do something creative where they pay down marte's deal in the present so Brewers have $10m+ to go spend on players in return for Brewers paying down some of Yelich's contract in those final 3 years.
could also add someone like Drew Smith who may carry some value for Milwaukee as a cheap relief option.
all in all spending the net of about $100m on Yelich for 5 years is a more appealing option than any of the FA hitters. Especially since so much of the savings is in the present.
yelich has always been one of my favorite players though so im a little biased here.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
Sadly, Senga can opt out after 2025 as well. Less than ideal.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
when did montgomery or snell say they didnt want to play here?
Quote:
to deal with losing out on Yamamoto, it is one of the 5 stages of grief, lol.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
when did montgomery or snell say they didnt want to play here?
Montgomery said he wanted to go "home" to Texas and Snell said he wanted to play for Seattle.
I could have sworn I read that om this thread.
The Future: Robinson doesn't have the elite stuff or good enough control to project as a closer in the majors, but his repertoire should allow him to carve out a middle relief role. Added to the 40-man roster after the 2022 season, Robinson likely returns to Triple-A Nashville but could make his major league debut at some point in 2023.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 50. Curveball: 60. Slider: 45. Cutter: 50. Control: 40.
Quote:
without peralta the evaluator actually has yellich more under water than marte. so that could be a straight up swap where the 2 teams just balance out the $ a little bit or add jarvis-y fringe prospects on either side.
peralta carries a ton of value, more than any asset in mets org except alvarez, so even if we took out marte the mets would have to add an acuna type to balance (or some package of pieces that add up to acuna's value).
i think my preference would be a simple yelich marte swap.
steamer projects marte at 1.2 fwar, yelich at 2.9.
ordinarily marte's injury would be a negative, but for brewers if he's hurt im not sure if it's insured but if it is they'd recoup even more $.
pretty sure a straight swap saves MIL $7m cash per year the next 2 years, plus the final 3 years at 26m each (78m total) after Marte expires.
yelich is only +$4m for CBT payroll over marte so the mets get a "cheap" upgrade for what is currently a potentially dead roster spot.
have to think Milwaukee knows that Yelich is a bit of a time bomb the same way Marte exploded in 2023 (and Cain for them a few years ago). the second Yelich has a down year he becomes dead salary only swappable for a bigger under water contract. may be one of those situations where it's better to be a year early than a year late.
I would do the one involving prospects that you posted, I think Peralta has that much value to the Mets going forward but either way I'd do that.
I just think Senga, Peralta, Quintana, say Giolito, Severino is "decent" and bigger picture, Senga, Peralta, Christian Scott, Giolito and "unnamed 2024 FA added" suddenly sounds like a youngish, good rotation for a multi year run.
Sign me up for something like that. Peralta has $8 million team options for '25 and '26 if I am reading Spotrac correctly. You could even enter into a favorably priced extension and get him a couple more years.
Quote:
In comment 16323793 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
to deal with losing out on Yamamoto, it is one of the 5 stages of grief, lol.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
when did montgomery or snell say they didnt want to play here?
Montgomery said he wanted to go "home" to Texas and Snell said he wanted to play for Seattle.
I could have sworn I read that om this thread.
montgomery's home isn't texas he's from south carolina. he was drafted from usc(e) to the yankees and spent a decade in the yankee org (w/ mendoza). im not sure if it was this thread or a prior one but his wife works at a hospital in boston. rosenthal actually said a few days ago it seems like he's not going back to texas.
i havent seen anything on snell but being repped by boras usually means the same thing it meant for scherzer.
Free agent starter Blake Snell would love to sign with his hometown team, the Seattle Mariners, but they don’t have a need for starting pitching. The Philadelphia Phillies are the favorite to sign him while letting Aaron Nola walk away. "
Mariners beat writer
" “[The Mariners] are gonna sign Blake Snell because he really wants to come home, and then they'll trade one of the young pitchers for a bat."
Via Ryan Divish"
There is ample evidence/buzz that Snell's preference is Seattle, there is also ample evidence their owner (John Stanton) is unwilling to spend that kind of money on Snell.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
What is gained by not signing other players? The Mets aren't some veteran team. Lindor isn't going anywhere. Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio (injured), Vientos all young and breaking in. Sign other players and who knows. The makeshift rotation was good down the stretch. They could make a run without signing Yamamoto. If they don't, then you just sell the assets before the deadline that you would have now (Alonso, Raley, McNeil, whoever else), and you have even more assets to possibly sell.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Mets are excited about Trayce Thompson’s upside (they’ve now announced the signing ) but remain in the market for a RH hitting outfielder on an MLB deal.
"With Boras as his agent, Nimmo will be looking to cash in. But the Mets have a good working relationship with Boras, who counts Max Scherzer among his many clients. So if a fair deal can be worked out for both sides, this shouldn't be too painful. The Mets have optimism that Nimmo will choose to come home and return to the Mets"
The writer wasn't suggesting Brandon Nimmo was actually "from" NY.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Mets are excited about Trayce Thompson’s upside (they’ve now announced the signing ) but remain in the market for a RH hitting outfielder on an MLB deal.
Thompson had a good 2022 with the Dodgers but upside? The man is 33 years old
From LT to... back up catcher?
Quote:
however that's pretty much all that's available in the UFA market so not sure it's that much of a tell. i think the lineup needs a middle order lefty more than RHH. they could use a RHH CF/4th OF to compliment Nimmo and allow him to shift over more often.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Mets are excited about Trayce Thompson’s upside (they’ve now announced the signing ) but remain in the market for a RH hitting outfielder on an MLB deal.
Thompson had a good 2022 with the Dodgers but upside? The man is 33 years old
7 MLB seasons, .212/.300/.411 over 369 games. Zero downside, but "excited about his upside" at 33 years old has to be Martino trolling, has to.
Quote:
to deal with losing out on Yamamoto, it is one of the 5 stages of grief, lol.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
What is gained by not signing other players? The Mets aren't some veteran team. Lindor isn't going anywhere. Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio (injured), Vientos all young and breaking in. Sign other players and who knows. The makeshift rotation was good down the stretch. They could make a run without signing Yamamoto. If they don't, then you just sell the assets before the deadline that you would have now (Alonso, Raley, McNeil, whoever else), and you have even more assets to possibly sell.
it's about building a contender not just adding bodies to a roster IMO.
Sure you can react to the strategy that didn't work out and add bodies as a plan B.
My sense is if the Mets can get under the luxury tax and "restart" under Stearns leadership I support that.
Quote:
In comment 16323822 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
however that's pretty much all that's available in the UFA market so not sure it's that much of a tell. i think the lineup needs a middle order lefty more than RHH. they could use a RHH CF/4th OF to compliment Nimmo and allow him to shift over more often.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Mets are excited about Trayce Thompson’s upside (they’ve now announced the signing ) but remain in the market for a RH hitting outfielder on an MLB deal.
Thompson had a good 2022 with the Dodgers but upside? The man is 33 years old
7 MLB seasons, .212/.300/.411 over 369 games. Zero downside, but "excited about his upside" at 33 years old has to be Martino trolling, has to.
He did have a 3 HR game, but then again so did Tuffy Rhodes
Quote:
however that's pretty much all that's available in the UFA market so not sure it's that much of a tell. i think the lineup needs a middle order lefty more than RHH. they could use a RHH CF/4th OF to compliment Nimmo and allow him to shift over more often.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
The Mets are excited about Trayce Thompson’s upside (they’ve now announced the signing ) but remain in the market for a RH hitting outfielder on an MLB deal.
Thompson had a good 2022 with the Dodgers but upside? The man is 33 years old
i generally dont find it credible to be "excited" about anything if they didnt even give the guy a major league deal.
exciting depth for syracuse maybe lol.
Quote:
In comment 16323793 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
to deal with losing out on Yamamoto, it is one of the 5 stages of grief, lol.
Senga plus x, plus y isn't too bad for a rotation.
lol, just tear it down if Yamamoto goes to NY or LAD (or elsewhere), Montgomery and Snell already said they didn't want to play here. Will they? maybe if there are no higher offers/perferable options, but F-them. We already had that (a guy who seemed like he didn't want to be here) with Bassitt and should have kept him.
What is gained by not signing other players? The Mets aren't some veteran team. Lindor isn't going anywhere. Alvarez, Baty, Mauricio (injured), Vientos all young and breaking in. Sign other players and who knows. The makeshift rotation was good down the stretch. They could make a run without signing Yamamoto. If they don't, then you just sell the assets before the deadline that you would have now (Alonso, Raley, McNeil, whoever else), and you have even more assets to possibly sell.
it's about building a contender not just adding bodies to a roster IMO.
Sure you can react to the strategy that didn't work out and add bodies as a plan B.
My sense is if the Mets can get under the luxury tax and "restart" under Stearns leadership I support that.
they cant reset the luxury tax until next year, and they dont have the internal SP in the system to support not signing pitchers.
and they could reset the luxury tax next year even if they spend big on SP. they have a lot of money expiring and could let alonso go.
the organizational need is SP. snell and montgomery arent just bodies, they are better bodies than at least 90% of the SP around the league (montgomery was 93rd percentile last year in pitching value, snell was 100th percentile, which won the CY).
just because players arent yamamoto doesnt mean they are just a body.
Rendon (114 million) + Detmers and Sandoval straight up Steve Cohen salary dump, let's goooo lol
they have made that clear.
DMM cited the Snell reference.
it sounds like Verlander and Scherzer to me.
but younger.
maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't but it all sounds very reactionary.
I'd assume strip it to the core and rebuild in the vision of the new POBO.
if that includes either Monty or whoever great, but I wouldn't force it, which is how this seems to me (and very reactionary)
"Mets: Left field (projected: 16th) or right field (20th)
It’s been a quiet winter in Queens so far, though absolutely no one expects that to continue. Understandably, the Mets' priority is on starting pitching, and they’ll give Starling Marte every chance to rebound next to Brandon Nimmo. But for as much fun as DJ Stewart was late last year, the team won’t simply hand him a starting job. Jeff McNeil might see time out here as well, but he’s also needed at second, and didn’t really hit last year, either.
Potential fits: Sign Teoscar Hernández, Michael A. Taylor or Jorge Soler; sign Jung Hoo Lee; trade for Randy Arozarena (TB)
"
(and its from 5 days ago, so yes, Lee is on there)
Link - ( New Window )
Which makes their refusal to deal Ohtani even more egregious. They honestly should think about dealing Trout if the return is good enough.
they have made that clear.
Quote:
The New York Post reported that while Montgomery has put values on certain teams while seeking a big contract in free agency: Montgomery is believed to prefer a return to Texas to St. Louis or The Bronx, his previous stops. That, of course, narrows Montgomery's choices to three teams
DMM cited the Snell reference.
it sounds like Verlander and Scherzer to me.
but younger.
maybe that matters, maybe it doesn't but it all sounds very reactionary.
I'd assume strip it to the core and rebuild in the vision of the new POBO.
if that includes either Monty or whoever great, but I wouldn't force it, which is how this seems to me (and very reactionary)
so we are taking one quote from Nov 12th as gospel even though it's been more recently contradicted by rosenthal? a quote that actually confirms he's open to NY generally as a geography?
november 12th was the day before mendoza got hired by the mets, just to give an example of how long ago that one was. do you think there's any chance his feelings may have changed in the 24 hours after that quote was printed when the other ny team hired a coach he was around every spring for a decade and on the bench for the majority of his big league starts?
If you choose to discount the comment, go ahead.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/01/sports/mets-shifting-focus-away-from-shohei-ohtani-juan-soto-splashes/
as have martino and others (this from 12/6).
https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/new-york-mets-reveal-pitching-plans-if-they-miss-out-on-top-target
im pretty sure the entirety of the sp fa market isn't isnt going to sulk into signing if the mets are the highest offer.
Starters set to strike it rich in MLB free agency By Social Links forJon Heyman Published Nov. 9, 2023, 6:51 p.m. ET - ( New Window )
If you choose to discount the comment, go ahead.
what if he preferred his former teams just because he knew the coaches there knew how to use him best?
its not a huge leap that he'd have some form of a relationship with mendoza given the amount of time they overlapped. im pretty sure they shared the same first year in the bronx and in the years prior mendoza had a development position within the yankee system while he was a minor leaguer.
“I didn’t really have much faith in my heater at the Yankees,” Montgomery said. “I had been told that it wasn’t that good compared to my other pitches and if I was gonna get hit, it was gonna be on a curveball or changeup, which isn’t how you can pitch.
“So if I got two strikes on a guy, he was probably auto-taking because I was gonna throw a curveball or a changeup. He was trying to just foul a changeup off or see a curveball down. I’m throwing my fastball in two-strike counts, I’m throwing anything in any count now, so it’s definitely opened up.”
Montgomery said he would “absolutely” push back regarding his fastball usage.
“But then I would miss a spot and give up a homer because I never threw my four-seamer in, so there was really no consistent feel of it, and I’d leak middle or I wouldn’t have any confidence in it,” he said. “I’m thinking, ‘all right, I’m throwing this not to give up a hit’ instead of, ‘I’m gonna throw this and blow your doors off.’ So now it’s just a whole different aggressive mindset where I’m the guy, I’m a dog on the mound and I’m just coming right after everybody.”
Who knows? Still feels like he's going to land with either Texas (despite what Rosenthal said), Boston, NYM or NYY.
Lackluster ’23 output notwithstanding, Robinson posted strong run-prevention and strikeout numbers from 2021-22. Baseball America’s scouting report on him notes that his heater typically sits 93-95mph range, topping out at 97 mph. He pairs that with a high-spin curveball and occasional slider. Command troubles have long been an issue for Robinson, but solid velocity, a plus curveball and a track record of missing bats make him a decent depth flier on a minor league contract.
Quote:
is gospel, but there is probably some truth in it. it's never in the best interest of a free agent to limit their options, I'm sure his agent went ballistic. Players usually go where they get offered the most money, with some exceptions.
If you choose to discount the comment, go ahead.
what if he preferred his former teams just because he knew the coaches there knew how to use him best?
its not a huge leap that he'd have some form of a relationship with mendoza given the amount of time they overlapped. im pretty sure they shared the same first year in the bronx and in the years prior mendoza had a development position within the yankee system while he was a minor leaguer.
my main point is he may wind up here, but it's not his first choice and he is not ours.
can it work out? sure, possibly, but it's not plan A IMO and I want plan A - and I have to imagine Cohen does too.
I don't want to settle, have things go sideways, and be saddled with the highest payroll in baseball and a middling team. I'd rather be patient. If this qualifies then great, seems forced.
(Can’t imagine this is a great sign that they aren’t sure what’s going on. Would love to be proven wrong)
He said "Rumors has it that NY offered...."
Quote:
Baerga is often wrong, but has been right a few times. He claims the Yankees have offered Yamamoto 9 years 33.8 per year
He said "Rumors has it that NY offered...."
John Mincone
@JMincone
***TBF, Carlos used me as a source once and we all know how that worked out
Link - ( New Window )
Quote:
Baerga is often wrong, but has been right a few times. He claims the Yankees have offered Yamamoto 9 years 33.8 per year
He said "Rumors has it that NY offered...."
Looks like Baerga pulled this number from a Bowden piece aka probably BS.
@JonHeyman
Yoshinobu Yamamoto is meeting with a Phillies contingent today
Maybe we can try him in the OF... I kid, I kid.
But honestly, I'd be all for the signing. Seems like the kind of move a winning team makes. Still young, should come relatively short and cheap. And he's still a productive ~1.5-2 win player.
I'd be more than happy with the move, now that you mention it.
Most of the rumors so far have come true.
2 year deal for Mahle... with Texas.
@JeffPassan
Right-handed starter Tyler Mahle and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a two-year, $22 million contract, sources told ESPN. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in May and should return this season, and he can earn another $5 million in performance bonuses based on IP in 2025.
@JeffPassan
Right-handed starter Tyler Mahle and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a two-year, $22 million contract, sources told ESPN. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in May and should return this season, and he can earn another $5 million in performance bonuses based on IP in 2025.
surprised he got a 2 year deal. Dam, was on my list of low risk / high reward.
Most of the rumors so far have come true.
A leak is, true or not, a way to control the narrative
A rumor is, based on facts or not, someone trying to create news or narrative.
Quote:
what's the real difference between a leak and a rumor?
Most of the rumors so far have come true.
A leak is, true or not, a way to control the narrative
A rumor is, based on facts or not, someone trying to create news or narrative.
sure, but don't you think they're connected, unless you think people are making stuff up (which some people certainly do and are almost always discredited) most rumors are based on leaks. Right?
Quote:
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
Right-handed starter Tyler Mahle and the Texas Rangers are in agreement on a two-year, $22 million contract, sources told ESPN. Mahle underwent Tommy John surgery in May and should return this season, and he can earn another $5 million in performance bonuses based on IP in 2025.
surprised he got a 2 year deal. Dam, was on my list of low risk / high reward.
Always expected to get 2. Will miss half of 2024
deal is done per Heyman
Quote:
“I was always worried about getting booed off the mound in New York,” Montgomery said recently on CC Sabathia’s and Ryan Ruocco’s “R2C2” podcast. “The pinstripes are heavy. Not everyone can handle it. I feel like I handled it OK. I could’ve been better, but there was a lot of things going into that I guess. But here [in St. Louis], I’m just being myself and pitching the way I want to. I guess the fans have kind of embraced me so far.”
Quote:
Montgomery said the Yankees weren’t fans of his fastball, but now it’s become one of his strengths.
“I didn’t really have much faith in my heater at the Yankees,” Montgomery said. “I had been told that it wasn’t that good compared to my other pitches and if I was gonna get hit, it was gonna be on a curveball or changeup, which isn’t how you can pitch.
“So if I got two strikes on a guy, he was probably auto-taking because I was gonna throw a curveball or a changeup. He was trying to just foul a changeup off or see a curveball down. I’m throwing my fastball in two-strike counts, I’m throwing anything in any count now, so it’s definitely opened up.”
Montgomery said he would “absolutely” push back regarding his fastball usage.
“But then I would miss a spot and give up a homer because I never threw my four-seamer in, so there was really no consistent feel of it, and I’d leak middle or I wouldn’t have any confidence in it,” he said. “I’m thinking, ‘all right, I’m throwing this not to give up a hit’ instead of, ‘I’m gonna throw this and blow your doors off.’ So now it’s just a whole different aggressive mindset where I’m the guy, I’m a dog on the mound and I’m just coming right after everybody.”
the yankees not thinking his fastball was a pitch he should throw more is very different thing from him not enjoying his time in new york. see link below.
my general thinking is 9/10x the team who offers the most $ gets the player, and that same 9/10x the players preference is who will pay me the most money. beltran clearly didnt enjoy ny for those first few years but it didnt stop him from being a great met. and then a great yankee. if there were a thread from the 2021 offseason i said the same re going after sherzer when the rumor was he didnt want to go to ny. if the player is the best option offer the most money and see what happens.
i just fundamentally disagree with this idea of not wanting "plan b" players or players where there's ever been a rumor that your team isnt their plan a. cespedes was like plan d in 2015. extending homegrown players would always been my priority since they are known quantities but beyond them i want productive players and if there's a mutual affinity great, but if not as long as they are good players who produce to the level they get paid that's what matters. good organizations seem to attract good players.
Jordan Montgomery was clearly devastated when the Yankees traded him to the St. Louis Cardinals at last month’s trade deadline. He even cried when saying his farewells to the New York media. - ( New Window )
(Can’t imagine this is a great sign that they aren’t sure what’s going on. Would love to be proven wrong)
would seem like a wasted opportunity from yamamoto's side to not have the guy who has signed the 2 richest aav SP contracts in the "final bidding" but whenever (if ever) the mets get the message they are out on yamamoto, they should jump the market for whoever they like next best. which i'd guess to be montgomery.
Quote:
In comment 16323953 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
is gospel, but there is probably some truth in it. it's never in the best interest of a free agent to limit their options, I'm sure his agent went ballistic. Players usually go where they get offered the most money, with some exceptions.
If you choose to discount the comment, go ahead.
what if he preferred his former teams just because he knew the coaches there knew how to use him best?
its not a huge leap that he'd have some form of a relationship with mendoza given the amount of time they overlapped. im pretty sure they shared the same first year in the bronx and in the years prior mendoza had a development position within the yankee system while he was a minor leaguer.
my main point is he may wind up here, but it's not his first choice and he is not ours.
can it work out? sure, possibly, but it's not plan A IMO and I want plan A - and I have to imagine Cohen does too.
I don't want to settle, have things go sideways, and be saddled with the highest payroll in baseball and a middling team. I'd rather be patient. If this qualifies then great, seems forced.
sort of answered this in a prior reply to dan but i dont really care about the plan a/b stuff. mets werent beltran's plan a in a million years and id sign him again in a heartbeat. they werent piazza's either come to think of it. i think lindor said he wanted to extend in cleveland before he got traded. freddie freeman probably said he wanted to be a brave for life many times and it didnt stop lad from signing him. betts/red sox too probably. we know alonso has said that here.
just sign good players who produce. in the case of montgomery types we arent even talking about that high profile of a player who will cost all that much, he's a quality starter and innings eater which they need. they only need to love him 1/3 as much as yamamoto because he will only cost 1/3 of yamamoto.
if there was 1 piece of non-public data we could see from this offseason it would be how they rate all the pitchers behind yamamoto. steamer projects almost all of them similarly, all similar ages, each have some compelling positives. i think montgomery's workload reliability and the fact that he's been on 3 different winning teams in the last 3 years will probably put him at the top, especially if the familiarity with mendoza is a positive.
sort of random but in sept 2020 when boone got suspended i think this was mendoza's first time managing in his place and montgomery was the starter (he got lit up by the rays, pulled in the first, and it was a loss).
Brosseau capped Tampa Bay's four-run first inning against Jordan Montgomery (2-2) when he hit a 2-2 curve an estimated 420 feet into the visitors' bullpen beyond the left-center fence. Brosseau made it 5-0 in the fifth by hitting an 0-1 fastball into the Yankees' bullpen in right-center.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap/_/gameId/401226235 - ( New Window )
mon - nyy
tues - lad
wed - ?
thurs - phi
red sox today maybe? they were reported to have a meeting with him in the coming days as of a few days ago. if they were his wed slot it hasn't been reported. toronto also rumored to be getting a meeting.
Marc Topkin
@TBTimes_Rays
·
8m
Hearing Glasnow extension with #Dodgers is “pretty much” done and just down to “finalizing some small stuff,” so the trade from #Rays (with Margot and $4M for Pepiot and Deluca) should be official soon.
-Passan
BREAKING: Right-hander Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a five-year, $135 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Once the deal is complete, the trade of Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca will be official.
Given that advertisers would want Ohtani and/or Yamamoto to attract the same audience, how much money is going to be left for Yamamoto? Even in the biggest ad market in the country, I don’t think there will be that much.
I think it’s SF-NYY-NYM in that order. I wouldn’t sleep on SF winning the sweepstakes, and Cohen will have to open the checkbook to get him.
My plan for tearing down whatever can be torn down is seeming like a better strategy every day.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
3m
Dodgers-Rays trade nearly complete. Tyler Glasnow has agreed to a four-year, $110M extension with the Dodgers, in addition to the $25M he will earn in 2024, source tells
@TheAthletic
. First:
@JeffPassan
.
My plan for tearing down whatever can be torn down is seeming like a better strategy every day.
Last I heard Bauer had yet to meet with any MLB teams. I can't say I'm consistently inquiring into Trevor Bauer's FA outlook however.
-Passan
BREAKING: Right-hander Tyler Glasnow and the Los Angeles Dodgers are finalizing a five-year, $135 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Once the deal is complete, the trade of Glasnow and Manuel Margot from the Rays to the Dodgers for Ryan Pepiot and Jonny DeLuca will be official.
snells cost difference + injury history probably are enough reason to prefer montgomery, especially if that makes it easier to also add a better 2nd SP like imanaga + giolito.
i think snell will have the least competitive market for those same reasons though and if they miss on yamamoto and montgomery i think it becomes a "uh, last year's CY is just sitting there and he's 1 of just 3 SP whos won 2 in the last 5 years...".
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
6m
Deal also includes $30M club option for an additional year. If declined, Glasnow can exercise $20M player option.
real question, how many SP options are there left for next year if the mets either decided to punt or stuck out this year?
burnes
bieber (and if he has another down year who knows)
woodruff (if he appears healthy which may be a big if)
anyone else?
Quote:
signs an extension to remain in Japan, would have been a FA after next season. Now will remain in Japan through 2026
real question, how many SP options are there left for next year if the mets either decided to punt or stuck out this year?
burnes
bieber (and if he has another down year who knows)
woodruff (if he appears healthy which may be a big if)
anyone else?
Buehler, Wheeler, Fried
glasnow effectively just got 6x155m or 165m. he wasnt open market and montgomery has the more reliable track record so id take the over on that for montgomery. especially knowing there are 7 teams in line for yamamoto so 6 are going to be on the rebound. he really only needs 2 to be aggressive and sfg, bos, nym seem like good candidates to continue aggressively on rebound if they miss.
6x170m maybe becomes a landing spot. his median was 5x25m but post-glasnow i would think the median would bump up to 5x150m at least. e-rod got 1 less year than his median but +2m higher aav.
Quote:
In comment 16324618 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
signs an extension to remain in Japan, would have been a FA after next season. Now will remain in Japan through 2026
real question, how many SP options are there left for next year if the mets either decided to punt or stuck out this year?
burnes
bieber (and if he has another down year who knows)
woodruff (if he appears healthy which may be a big if)
anyone else?
Buehler, Wheeler, Fried
forgot fried he is a good one. buehler is a good one, he will be about 20 months post TJS to start this year.
id be good with a wheeler reunion but he'll be entering his a35 so a little buyer beware there. or maybe he comes back to fully realized his aj burnett comp.
Since OD 2021 only 16 pitchers have posted a higher fWAR than Montgomery (Gray right behind him) 9 pitchers have made more starts (Giolito one of them) and Giolito (524.1) Montgomery (524.2) #16 and #17 in baseball in innings pitched
Since OD 2021 only 16 pitchers have posted a higher fWAR than Montgomery (Gray right behind him) 9 pitchers have made more starts (Giolito one of them) and Giolito (524.1) Montgomery (524.2) #16 and #17 in baseball in innings pitched
ive posted this leaderboard a few times but it helps show how few quality SP there are league wide.
with nola, montgomery, snell, gray, ohtani/woodruff (inj.) almost 1/3 of the top 20 pitchers from the past 3 years were UFA this offseason.
yamamoto, imanaga 2 additional options, and giolito a 3rd who isnt far off this list. e-rod also not far off.
plus glasnow/cease/burnes on trade market.
if stearns cant secure some quality SP this offseason out of all the choices that will be a "yikes". there will not be an offseason with more options than this one.
i dont love snell, id choose montgomery over him assuming there does end up a 30m-50m price difference. i just wouldnt close door on him either. they may end up needing each other. other than the walks/injuries there is a lot to like. higher velocity than montgomery and has similarly pitched for winning teams in hard divisions against teams like nyy, lad, sfg, tor, etc. 3.3 era/3.9 fip in 10 postseason starts w/ 11k/9.
top 10 remaining FA SP
1. Yamamoto
2. Snell
3. Montgomery
4. Imanaga
5. Giolito
6. Stroman
7. Clevinger
8. Lorenzen
9. Manaea
10. Montas
(@keithlaw) (I'm skipping Kershaw) 1. Yamamoto 2. Montgomery 3. Snell 4. Stroman 5. Imanaga 6. Clevinger 7. Giolito 8. Lorenzen 9. Manaea 10. Heaney
1. PHI - wheeler + nola = 5.9 + 3.9 = 9.8
2. MIN - gray + lopez = 5.3 + 4.5 = 9.8
3. SEA - castilla + kirby = 4.4 + 3.4 = 7.7
so especially if you still have enough in the budget for a quality #3 ahead of quintana/severino, all of a sudden the rotation takes a big step forward with either, both same age as senga too (all born within 60 days of each other).
randomly surprising as "down" as JV was last year, he ended up the 22nd most valuable SP and basically being worth as much as Senga (3.3 fwar).
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2023&month=0&season1=2023&ind=0 - ( New Window )
(@keithlaw) (I'm skipping Kershaw) 1. Yamamoto 2. Montgomery 3. Snell 4. Stroman 5. Imanaga 6. Clevinger 7. Giolito 8. Lorenzen 9. Manaea 10. Heaney
Heaney isn't a FA, he had guys like Canha on there who isn't either. So he has the top 9 in his top 50, no other SP
mentions SFG for snell which seems like a very good fit if they can get barry zito memories out of their heads.
https://nypost.com/2023/12/14/sports/mets-yankees-eying-japans-shota-imanaga-as-fallback-option/ - ( New Window )
What a strange career he's had.
And an even odder signing for a team like the Royals.
Seems like they are signing guys to flip at the deadline lol
Quote:
sign Wacha
What a strange career he's had.
And an even odder signing for a team like the Royals.
Seems like they are signing guys to flip at the deadline lol
i dont know why more small market teams dont do that when in the rebuild cycle.
Evan Grant
@Evan_P_Grant
Max Scherzer underwent surgery to repair a herniated disc yesterday
Quote:
sign Wacha
What a strange career he's had.
And an even odder signing for a team like the Royals.
Seems like they are signing guys to flip at the deadline lol
Royals quietly are a hot pick for a breakout in 2024 believe it or not.
Verified
@JeffWilsonTXR
Max Scherzer had surgery Thursday in Dallas for a herniated disc. Out until June or July. #Rangers
Young acknowledges they are in contact with Montgomery
Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer is not a bad top 4 at all.
Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer is not a bad top 4 at all.
Where’s the workhorse? Which of those guys can you pencil in for 150, yet alone 200 IP?
It’s just an odd approach. IMO
Verified
@JeffWilsonTXR
Max Scherzer had surgery Thursday in Dallas for a herniated disc. Out until June or July. #Rangers
Young acknowledges they are in contact with Montgomery
i like max and i hope he makes it back but herniated disc for a guy at his age i will take the over on 6-7 months.
Quote:
rotation
Ragans, Lugo, Wacha, Singer is not a bad top 4 at all.
Where’s the workhorse? Which of those guys can you pencil in for 150, yet alone 200 IP?
It’s just an odd approach. IMO
How many workhorses are available on the FA market in their price range? Lyles isn't great but he's averaged 179 innings per season since 2021, one of the highest marks in baseball . Would not surprise me at all to see KC challenge for the playoffs in such a weak division.
@ByJackHarris
·
12m
With this AAV number on the reported Tyler Glasnow extension, believe the Dodgers CBT payroll is now up to around $250M for next season
That's well past the first $237M luxury tax threshold. The next two thresholds are at $257M (62% tax charge) and $277M (92.5% tax charge)
Quote
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
1h
Replying to @Ken_Rosenthal
The 4/110 is new money. Parties agreed to adjust the $25M that Glasnow has coming in 2024 so that it is a $10M signing bonus and $15M salary. Enables Dodgers to make it a five-year deal for purposes of the luxury tax. Lowers AAV from $27.5M to $27M.
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
Will be interesting to see if Dodgers push that third 92.5% threshold (especially if they're serious about getting Yamamoto)
They are saving a lot of real cash the next two seasons thanks to Ohtani deferrals. We'll see if that makes them more willing to take on tax payments
Agreed Jon! Down with Shecky!
Jon Heyman
Verified
@JonHeyman
·
3m
Royals have added Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Hunter Renfroe, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Kyle Wright. Much improved team is nearing or at their limit of free agent $ but may still consider trades.
There’s also a chance this works out for everyone — Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their fairy dust on Margot and he and Heyward combine for 5 wins in right field, while Pepiot becomes a mid-rotation starter and Deluca develops into a regular. I just see wide ranges of possible outcomes for three of the players, all but Margot, and that increases the risk for everyone involved.
nsiap but didnt realize he also already posted the mets way back on 11/16:
some solid zips offensive projections on vientos + baty.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-new-york-mets/ - ( New Window )
There’s also a chance this works out for everyone — Glasnow has his first full season as a starter, the Dodgers sprinkle their fairy dust on Margot and he and Heyward combine for 5 wins in right field, while Pepiot becomes a mid-rotation starter and Deluca develops into a regular. I just see wide ranges of possible outcomes for three of the players, all but Margot, and that increases the risk for everyone involved.
i think LA is partially expecting they have the depth to treat Glasnow just like Kershaw, where they only need 20 starts out him and can rest him when necessary as long as he's healthy for playoffs.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
Normally I’d look askance at the Royals “splurge” but you can literally buy your way into AL Central contention for 105 million so…
Mark Feinsand
Verified
@Feinsand
·
1m
Yuki Matsui, a five-time NPB All-Star lefty reliever, visited the Cardinals in St. Louis on Thursday, per sources. The 28-year-old has 236 saves and a 2.43 ERA in 10 seasons with the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles and is considered one of the better free-agent bullpen options.
so mets are probably about 15-16 wins above replacement behind atlanta factoring in severino + lopez.
yamamoto/snell/montgomery are the big fish out there with gains between 3-4 wins each,
LF is an obvious opportunity to add 1-2 wins,
bullpen should add 1-2 wins with a couple good signings,
add another sp with a net gain of 1-2 wins.
so net/net mets will probably start about 5-10 projected wins above replacement behind atlanta but probably comfortably ahead of miami. will add philly when they get published, i would think philly will be ahead of mets and closer to atl.
Fabian Ardaya
@FabianArdaya
Dodgers $100+ million pitching contracts, all-time:
Kevin Brown - 7 years, $105m in 1998
Zack Greinke - 6/$147m in 2012
Clayton Kershaw - 7/$215m in 2014
Trevor Bauer - 3/$102m in 2021
Shohei Ohtani - 10/$700m
Tyler Glasnow - 4/$110m (in new money)
Washed? Still young for baseball but needs to get healthy? Somewhere in the middle?
I have to believe he's available and if the Met do land pitching I would be interested.
Do you view him as just stay away, or would you be interested in the right deal?
Washed? Still young for baseball but needs to get healthy? Somewhere in the middle?
I have to believe he's available and if the Met do land pitching I would be interested.
Do you view him as just stay away, or would you be interested in the right deal?
back stuff scares me and 35m x 7 years left so the contract is considered very under water.
sort of like yelich if they take back marte's deal and maybe kick in a little bit of cash, then maybe its worth throwing them some not elite vanity prospects (ramirez, parada) in a package hoping to get 2-3 good years in the short term.
yelich has a lot less money left, same age, fewer years, so i think that one is a little simpler to find an even swap.
@martinonyc
Understandable that Yankees and Mets fans want daily Yamamoto updates, but his free agency is not at that point yet. He's going through his free agency process, clubs are waiting and wondering. Status quo.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
2m
I will reiterate that according to most sources, the Mets have earned themselves at least a place in this conversation. That's still the case.
I was thinking of Alonso for Trout.
I was thinking of Alonso for Trout.
I'm honestly a little confused. You were talking about trading Alonso for prospects to reset. Now for a 30 year old with a bad back who is always injured? I don't see how that jives with that.
I was thinking of Alonso for Trout.
trout has about 250m left on his deal in cash and almost $260m in luxury tax salary, so he is going to cost mets a huge amount beyond the cash. he'd also virtually eliminate any chance of getting under repeater tax. so if that's all paid with cohen tax on top you are looking at almost $500m.
his 37.1m CBT salary each year is likely at least +12m over whatever alonso extends at, which at the 3rd repeator level would be like an extra $20m per year. the back and being 4 years older make it unlikely for him to provide a ton of defensive value going forward (you may even want to DH him to conserve his health).
at the moment alonso has + value even as a rental and trout doesnt so unless the angels are emotionally invested in a bad decision (which they were w/ ohtani at the deadline) they should definitely do that, even if they were just going to flip alonso for a rental return and start over.
trout is a very all in move for the next 2-3 years so if the mets do it i doubt theyd want to move alonso. id consider trout but only if it was getting paid down by dumping Marte and with cash coming back for future years too.
Quote:
stuff reminds me of Wright or Mattingly but Trout was better than both so may be worth the risk.
I was thinking of Alonso for Trout.
I'm honestly a little confused. You were talking about trading Alonso for prospects to reset. Now for a 30 year old with a bad back who is always injured? I don't see how that jives with that.
Sorry, I thought I said this, but if the Mets do get appropriate pitching to contend I'd look to make this trade since I am against extending Alonso.
In 82 games Trout produced more fWAR than Alonso over 154 games. The Mets would have to believe that Trout is not washed.
at some point id imagine the price gets high enough to push them towards an imanaga or other 2nd tier SP. they would be a great fit for Giolito on a pillow deal - and he's from burbank. montgomery would also appear a really good fit there but i think their best ROI would be Giolito + Hader.
UTK Special 10/15/23 The Glasnow Trade - ( New Window )
You're losing your mojo lol
Who was that?
Quote:
who broke the Glasnow trade said the Yankees feel they are going to be landing Yamamoto.
Who was that?
pretty sure this guy.
https://twitter.com/AzoulayHaron - ( New Window )
this +3 (or more) wins in LF would be a damn fine upgrade. run prevention and a great hitter who should age gracefully rolled into 1. easily one of my favorite players in the last decade.
this +3 (or more) wins in LF would be a damn fine upgrade. run prevention and a great hitter who should age gracefully rolled into 1. easily one of my favorite players in the last decade.
cf nimmo
ss lindor
lf yelich
1b alonso
rf stewart/marte?
c alvarez
2b mcneil
dh vientos
3b baty
if marte is in the deal there's definitely room to add taylor, bader, or kiermaier as a 3rd/4th OF to mix in with stewart and improve the defense.
some rumors milwaukee was supposedly talking yelich with toronto a few days ago but i dont see why they wouldnt just spend almost the same for bellinger.
Justin Turner would give the Mets a proven bat and versatility to play third base, if needed.
The Mets, according to a source, have been engaged in discussions with Turner’s camp after initiating contact with the former All-Star early in the offseason.
Mets, Justin Turner engaged in talks on potential reunion - ( New Window )
2021 99.6
2022 99.0
2023 98.6
(not the best trend)
starling marte
2021 100.2
2022 99.2
2023 100.1
(maybe some hope for him afterall, would not have guessed bat speed was up in 2023?)
christian yelich
2021 102.9
2022 103.0
2023 103.2
still a stud. would be 3rd best on mets to just alonso and vientos.
I just hope he signs after Christmas so I can dream the impossible dream for the holiday.
I just hope he signs after Christmas so I can dream the impossible dream for the holiday.
DREWCON....I share with you that desire and would love Justin Turner for this year as.
I share with you our disdain for the jETS...I think we are safe with another year of no play-offs for the tenants. And then 41 year old Aaron Rodgers is their hope going forward...a very damaged Aaron Rodgers.....Wasting a strong but not Super Bowl Defense....
custom leaderboard on savant. click on 'custom columns' and then check the box for bat speed.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/custom?year=2023&type=batter&filter=&sort=4&sortDir=desc&min=q&selections=xba,xslg,xwoba,xobp,xiso,exit_velocity_avg,launch_angle_avg,barrel_batted_rate,&chart=false&x=xba&y=xba&r=no&chartType=beeswarm - ( New Window )
I just hope he signs after Christmas so I can dream the impossible dream for the holiday.
I think Cohen is going to throw a monster offer out there at some point. He didn’t fly all the way to Japan to half ass this thing.
Quote:
To sign Yamamoto badly
I just hope he signs after Christmas so I can dream the impossible dream for the holiday.
DREWCON....I share with you that desire and would love Justin Turner for this year as.
I share with you our disdain for the jETS...I think we are safe with another year of no play-offs for the tenants. And then 41 year old Aaron Rodgers is their hope going forward...a very damaged Aaron Rodgers.....Wasting a strong but not Super Bowl Defense....
Hewlett-thanks man lol
F’ing Tierney on WFAN today is back chest thumping and hinting Jets will make the playoffs and while feigning support for Devito and the Giants - he is likely irritated by the recent attention we are getting
Quote:
To sign Yamamoto badly
I just hope he signs after Christmas so I can dream the impossible dream for the holiday.
I think Cohen is going to throw a monster offer out there at some point. He didn’t fly all the way to Japan to half ass this thing.
I hope so., Metnut.
Predicted this weeks ago, it's the only thing that makes sense.
hope they get Yamamoto, but seems less likely now than it did in September.
if they dont get at least 1 sp on a multi-year deal they are setting themselves up to fail not just this year but next year.
right now they have senga, who was optimized mostly pitching just once a week and who had some kind of medical flag during his physical that added a tjs protection for mets to his contract:
Option price increases $2M with a Cy Young, $1M if 2nd-5th in voting
in 2025 senga will be entering his a32 and thats all they have. if they dont add a quality multi-year deal with him now, what's the plan next year? both burnes + fried? what if 1 extends early or gets traded? if yamamoto signs elsewhere burnes could be unwrapping xmas presents in LA while taking his physical for the dodgers.
Sammon did mention giolito who I've thought was a good fit to the mets on a pillow deal, but if he goes multi-year i dont see how he doesn't push to get around the e-rod deal at least. that would still be meaningful overall savings vs montgomery probably but in terms of aav not much different.
giolito on a big 1 year + imanaga on a multi-year is like the bare minimum of what they'd need to do to give themselves a chance of a quality rotation in 2025. imanaga + senga and hoping 1 of giolito/sevy bounce back would mean probably only needing 1 TOR sp on shopping list next offseason. but even that is banking a lot on senga staying healthy.
Kodai Senga also had iffy physical before Mets’ Carlos Correa saga - ( New Window )
that is him saying the dodgers with:
bobby miller (age 25, 140 innings last year, more projected this year)
glasnow (age 30, 120 innings last year)
sheehan (age 24 120 innings last year, more projected this year)
buehler (age 29, 2 years from TJS, projected at 140 innings this year)
stone (age 25 130 innings last year)
yarbarough (age 31 110 innings last year)
may and/or kershaw coming back maybe midseason
and they may not have a path to filling enough innings.
for 2025 the mets have maybe 175 innings spoken for with senga, if he stays healthy. that's it if they don't sign a multi-year starter. no multi-year SP signed means they are 1 injury from a full 800-1000 innings worth of SP to find next offseason.
UTK Special 10/15/23 The Glasnow Trade - ( New Window )
NYY-Yamamoto
TX-Montgomery
SF-Snell
CHI-Bellinger
BOS-Imanaga
TOR-Chapman
LAD-Hader
LAA-Stroman
MIA-Gurriel
ARI-JDM
NYM-Turner
LAD-Giolito
NYY-Yamamoto
TX-Montgomery
SF-Snell
CHI-Bellinger
BOS-Imanaga
TOR-Chapman
LAD-Hader
LAA-Stroman
MIA-Gurriel
ARI-JDM
NYM-Turner
LAD-Giolito
i think yamamoto goes lad or mets. dont see yankees winning a bidding war with either, if he wants to win i think lad are the obvious pick, if he wants $ i think he goes mets, if he wants pinstripes he goes yankees but im not sure enough is made about their situation being a little odd.
if things dont work out this year for them, then what? cashman seemed legitimately on hot seat last year. their currently signed core is all 32 years old+ and the every day players are injury prone. given all that i kind of get why cashman is going all in, just not sure id want to choose less $ to ride out that hand with him.
for the rest i think im generally keeping my predictions from a few weeks ago though with LAD getting glasnow i dont think they go for snell anymore, i think SF wins that one:
BOS-Montgomery
SF-Snell
TOR/CHC-Bellinger/Chapman (each gets one or the other)
NYM-Imanaga
LAD-Hader
I think Giolito goes to whichever of NYM/LAD miss on Yamamoto.
So im thinking mets get some 2/3 of yamamoto/giolito/imanaga.
Turner makes a ton of sense for mets, could also see them still be interested in Gurriel if the price is right but id now prefer yelich if it sends marte the other way even though that would mean taking on a little more money i think it's worth it for a better player. i think that is a really good fit.
brewers are interesting in that if they can move yelich, they should probably also move burnes and do a real reset since they have no chance of extending him. could see him to either of lad or nyy if they miss on yamamoto.
i actually think for giolito it makes more sense to take a 1 year deal independent of who he signs with.
right now the median projections have him 3 years 49m. a good year and he can double that like e-rod or maybe even triple it as glasnow did and montgomery may. i think a 1 year 20m pillow, with maybe a 2nd year option/opt out that guarantees him some security would make a lot of sense for him with mets or lad.
i think mets would probably prefer a 3x49m > 1x20m, so the only question is someone goes to the e-rod level for him. i think that's what it would take for him to go multi-year.
yamamoto is similarly going to sign for a decade, though probably with 1 opt out somewhere in the middle (year 5 would seem like a sweet spot). cohen is richest owner in mlb and just made stearns one of the highest paid execs in mlb on a rumored 5 year deal, ohtani esstentially locked in friedman, i think it's a legitimate unknown w/ nyy how committed they are to continue spending into upper tax tier and cashmans future if things dont go well this year. if they triple their last 3 years tax bill and lose a wild card does he get another year?
ive always like montas. no idea what the health situation is obviously but i could get on board with montas/manaea types as long as they give out 1 significant multi-year deal and fill in with strong depth in all the other open areas (bp, turner, lf).
i think this year is a shit or get off pot year for the prior generation. i could see any of alonso, mcneil, nimmo, diaz on the block this summer with 2025 a year to reset lux tax if they dont show they are a good enough core to compete. but the system is so lacking pitching i think they need to start buying themselves runway for 2025+2026+2027 now.
Yariel
@FullCountTommy
·
14m
One thing I think Scott Boras made clear on the score this morning is that he’s positioning Cody Bellinger as a Corey Seager or Bryce Harper type free agent, rather than a Brandon Nimmo or George Springer type free agent.
This free agency might last quite a while.
im sure there's some friendly math going on with teams counting posting fees in their #'s (like eno did with his 400m) but i think the mets (or the highest offer) may end up a true 400m + posting fee.
the simplest way to project yamamoto is probably just looking at Yu since his first mlb year was age 25.
he's been worth 34 fwar in his career and only 3 of 12 seasons over 190 innings. 2 seasons under 100 innings. 266 starts so 22 starts per year. 30 starts 5x.
34 fwar x 9m cost per war on open market = $306m
adjusting for inflation 400m x 11 or 12 years is something 1 of these teams is bound to rationalize.
The question: Is this the time for Cohen to drop the wallet and get it done?
and for as much shock value as the ohtani contract got, the median projections from this exact same group of people were almost exactly right and that was a much harder player to estimate with the TJS and uniqueness of a hitter + pitcher:
The question: Is this the time for Cohen to drop the wallet and get it done?
I personally think of Turner sort of like Juan Uribe in 2015 or Pham last year. The bat speed seems to still be there, on the right contract i think he's a good add. Last year he only made $6.7m, this year the projections are double that at $14m. I'm pretty sure i'd only be in at something closer to last year's price. otherwise im just signing Gurriel for LF.
all 3 of turner/baty/vientos have similar steamer projections so you are only signing him if he's willing to not be a guaranteed starter. a lot like pham last year.
$14m is a near 2 fwar starter's salary, so if that's what turner costs im not signing him. im signing gurriel for lf because there is an almost every day role open out there.
Joel Sherman
Verified
@Joelsherman1
·
4m
Yoshinobu Yamamoto had dinner on Saturday at Steve Cohen's house with a Mets contingent, The Post has learned
@martinonyc
·
8m
The Mets’ second Yamamoto dinner proves that they have, in fact, forced themselves into the mix here, despite longstanding industry perception that they were not a real factor. Now they are, and it’s mostly due to Steve Cohen’s aggressiveness
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
17m
The Mets have not made an offer, but don’t worry , then know when to do so and they will
Joel Sherman
@Joelsherman1
·
25m
Mets contingent was Cohen, his wife, Alex, David Stearns, Carlos Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner.
caveat - if u wanted to use cohen as a stalking horse this is also exactly what you would do. but if cohen is willing to top any offer substantially and $ is the priority its like having secretariat as the stalking horse.
Joel Sherman
Verified
@Joelsherman1
·
4m
Yoshinobu Yamamoto had dinner on Saturday at Steve Cohen's house with a Mets contingent, The Post has learned
😮
Who knows if he signs, but THAT is a great, great sign itself.
Come on Stevie, take the throne from Edwin As the best damn closer in the game!!!!!!
the betting markets had them up there from the beginning, before the lad interest got out and before nyy announced they could do both him/soto.
cohen has delivered top all time aav sp last 2 offseasons. everyone was a little too quick shifting against the reigning offseason champ.
When a bug soending team KNOWS that their offer will be topped no matter what. They start to feel they are being to up the offer elsewhere.
There’s egos involved. Owners have big ones, and they like to be the one to,pull the carpet and walk away first. So they “won” instead of losing.
If other teams feel Cohen will,outbid them no matter what, you could start seeing teams bow out.
I know absolutely zero about anything here, but in general, that’s how it works with these guys.
Now I’m getting my hopes up really, really high for nowmreason.
When a bug soending team KNOWS that their offer will be topped no matter what. They start to feel they are being to up the offer elsewhere.
There’s egos involved. Owners have big ones, and they like to be the one to,pull the carpet and walk away first. So they “won” instead of losing.
If other teams feel Cohen will,outbid them no matter what, you could start seeing teams bow out.
I know absolutely zero about anything here, but in general, that’s how it works with these guys.
Now I’m getting my hopes up really, really high for nowmreason.
if you asked me to guess why on the sunday am before bidding intensifies this comes out...
right now there are gms who know their owner's top $ isnt going to be enough wondering if its time better spent to jump the market w/ snell/montgomery/etc. notably the 2 thirsty teams whose 300m offers leaked yesterday only to find out they didnt even get them a 2nd dinner.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
2m
Sources: Yamamoto expected to meet again with the Yankees while he’s in the area, could be as soon as today.
i think he or heyman also said bidding is expected to intesify this week? teams are going to start pivoting to others and the market will break on its own unless yamamoto just deciodes to take more time like ohtani.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
2m
Sources: Yamamoto expected to meet again with the Yankees while he’s in the area, could be as soon as today.
lol, like high school stuff.
Great point about jumping the secondary market
And how it was prefaced end last week “Mets not spending on secondary market” 😉
Quote:
Made it sound like there won’t be a decision this week. “Before the new year”. So it sounds as if there will be more meetings with teams this week. Shut down for the holiday and sometime the following week we will hear something. Not this week
i think he or heyman also said bidding is expected to intesify this week? teams are going to start pivoting to others and the market will break on its own unless yamamoto just deciodes to take more time like ohtani.
Quite honestly other than us fans complaining, no incentive for him to finish this up this week. He has until the 4th. Why not try and get every last penny?
lol, like high school stuff.
Great point about jumping the secondary market
And how it was prefaced end last week “Mets not spending on secondary market” 😉
nyy have spoken w confidence, mets are acting w confidence. and a sizably bigger bank account.
But the Wilpon and JH days are over, controlling the messaging.
Man, I hope this dinner was true. My head is spinning.
Sign him and immediately reiterate the message. We are committed to our youth. And just signed a 25 year old pitcher. Still have work to do, blah blah blah.
Quote:
In comment 16325729 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
Made it sound like there won’t be a decision this week. “Before the new year”. So it sounds as if there will be more meetings with teams this week. Shut down for the holiday and sometime the following week we will hear something. Not this week
i think he or heyman also said bidding is expected to intesify this week? teams are going to start pivoting to others and the market will break on its own unless yamamoto just deciodes to take more time like ohtani.
Quite honestly other than us fans complaining, no incentive for him to finish this up this week. He has until the 4th. Why not try and get every last penny?
well right now he has total control but that wont last forever.
as other stuff starts happening he loses some of that control.
the soto trade happened when it did because the yankees knew some of their competition was still tied up with ohtani (tor). they knew that was their window to get a deal done or risk more teams getting involved.
other teams who are currently in a yamamoto are going to start seeing windows into other moves and taking them and as the market starts shrinking for yamamoto he will feel some extra urgency. i have no idea if he's given teams medicals but we saw a few big deals run into medical issues last year so i cannot imagine he wants to leave anything to chance in the 72 hours after new years day. especially if he's down to say 2 teams and eliminating 1 of them gives the other a ton of leverage. boras' correa pivot to mets was like 40m less gtd than sfg. and wolfe went through a delay with senga (who fortunately wasnt on a posting clock).
At this point I assume he’s going to give himself enough time to have the physicals etc and not long before that.
@martinonyc
·
For what it’s worth, the Yankees meeting with Yamamoto was rather hastily scheduled once he was in the area
But the Wilpon and JH days are over, controlling the messaging.
this is exactly the point ive tried to make since day 1 of cohen, the wilpon days are over. things may not go exactly as we hope with yamamoto, and they certainly didnt in prior offseasons either with the gm/pobo searches, and realmuto, and plenty of other stuff.
but for however long this window lasts the mets have the richest and most aggressive owner in the sport who seems to make shrewd moves even when things arent working out (like moving scherzer). nobody can predict the future but this is a potential golden age of the franchise. we should appreciate cohen while he's here bc things could revert real quick if something happens to him. off the 2000 world series the mets couldnt bring back hampton or get a meeting with mussina. we got kevin freaking appier.
Yamamoto spent much of the last week in Los Angeles meeting with teams and their respective personnel. He had not yet met with Mendoza and Hefner, so it was important for him to get the opportunity to ask the manager and pitching coach questions and learn more about the Mets.
https://theathletic.com/5143633/2023/12/17/yoshinobu-yamamoto-steve-cohen-mets/ - ( New Window )
right now they have $146m against tax (CBT threshold is $241m) including Verlanders option kicking in (so if it doesn't kick in then they have 17.5m more).
let's go high on yamamoto at $40m, that's $186m pre-arb with jv's option triggering. they have no meaningful arbitration guys so let's call $200m a pretty reasonable estimate, with $40m to spend in FA.
so if they keep the rest of the offseason to pretty much 1 year deals (giolito, turner, bp, etc), they enter next offseason with a real chance to stay under threshold with $ to spend to replace those guys via FA. and ideally some young guys have stepped up in 2024 making it easier to spread that $40m over fewer needs.
to extend alonso they'd have to get creative, if they wanted to go for soto or fried or burnes that would probably guarantee they stay in tax, but if the year isn't going great i think they will probably sell off 1 or 2 pieces a30+ (mcneil, nimmo, diaz, alonso) to keep building the farm and create more room to spend on younger players.
swapping marte for yelich or marte just bouncing back and becoming tradeable would be a big boost to the strategy.
if the team plays well and makes the playoffs i imagine they punt on any reset and just eat the tax since revenues will be higher.
Jack Azoulay-Haron
@AzoulayHaron
·
The Red Sox’s well documented interest in starting pitching includes pitchers with a qualifying offer attached, as sources tell
@MLBNerds
that they are willingly pursuing pitchers regardless of their QO status.
@AzoulayHaron
·
Replying to
@AzoulayHaron
While he doesn’t have a qualifying offer attached, LHP Jordan Montgomery is a big name to watch for Boston.
yelich or bust!!!!! or more likely probably whatever LF takes a 1 year deal.
Nightengale says they are still interested in Turner and JDM
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
Outfielder Lourdes Gurriel’s deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks is for three years and $42 million with a club option for a fourth season, sources tell me and
@kileymcd
. The deal also includes an opt-out after the second season.
minus out marte's $39m the next 2 years and maybe a little future $ in the final 3 years (5m per year?) and you get pretty close to something that makes sense. they can take drew smith too.
gurriel was worth 2.1 wins last year, yelich was worth 4.1. he's a few years older so there's a little extra risk but for the better player and to move out marte i think it's worth it.
With pitching costing what it does now.
hard to argue if a team decides there is more overlooked value there, no?
With pitching costing what it does now.
hard to argue if a team decides there is more overlooked value there, no?
i think im in the minority on this, but i mostly view SP as innings eaten at this point. dont think there's a huge difference between any inning eaten under 4 era.
so id rather spend on a high quality deep lineup + bp.
i like winning even the offseason and i have to think all these teams know something so im hoping they get yamamoto, but i think there's almost definitely a better way to spend $400m. not bc yamamoto wont produce value but because you can get 10 gurriel deals. or 1 gurriel, 1 e-rod, 1 lugo, 1 reynaldo lopez, 1 giolito, and probably still some $ leftover.
I could think of worse strategies tophan a deep rotation vs top heavy.
But come playoff time, a deep rotation is useless vs a two headed ace in a series.
It’s a catch 22. Be competitive and make the playoffs is probably the better “business decision”
Seems the best pitching bang for the Buck is spend a ton on pro player scouting & analytics. Identify the misused or bounce back candidates and trade for them. Who knows anymore.
How I read this - Yamamoto wants to be a Yankee (or Dodger) but he also wants to take the highest offer. And if another team offers the most, that’s likely where he’s going.
The Yankees “cautious optimism” is that they hope he goes to the team he wants (Yankees) but for less money.
See new posts
Conversation
Jon Heyman
Verified
@JonHeyman
Yankees meeting today, which has now ended, was requested by coveted free agent righthander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
Didn’t Beltran try something similar before signing with us in 2005?
Quote:
is giving them every chance to close the deal, but he won’t take less money to go there.
Didn’t Beltran try something similar before signing with us in 2005?
Beltran recently admitted he wanted to sign with the Yankees but they only offered him 1 year with a promise of a long term extension after the one year.
I could think of worse strategies tophan a deep rotation vs top heavy.
But come playoff time, a deep rotation is useless vs a two headed ace in a series.
It’s a catch 22. Be competitive and make the playoffs is probably the better “business decision”
Seems the best pitching bang for the Buck is spend a ton on pro player scouting & analytics. Identify the misused or bounce back candidates and trade for them. Who knows anymore.
all of the above isn't a bad approach either.
senga/yamamoto (or another 'ace', which i think snell arguably more is than isnt)
3 quintana/severino types (i think giolito or imanaga could fit here, maybe manaea)
and build a system that spits out high velocity arms like LA's (eventually) to fill gaps as they open up.
obviously they are way behind on that last part and there's no way to speed that up.
the interactions directly with cohen are a curveball. maybe it's just bc he wants the most money and everyone knows cohen has the most money, but i cant recall a FA having multiple dinners with an owner, including one at his house.
also dont imagine cohen being so willing to be the face of a pursuit that doesn't work out. so id imagine he's genuinely prepared to top any offer.
its a curveball in that i've not heard of any owner doing it before with any other fa, so it's unique.
we've heard scherzer, verlander, stearns talk about having spoken with alex/steve cohen during their free agency processes but this is the first time we've heard of an owner both traveling to the player's home country and then dining at cohen's house. it sounds more like nick saban in the weeks before national signing day.
their current tax bill pre-yamamoto is projected at $32m by cots right now. already almost their highest ever.
a yamamoto contract would get taxed at a 50% base rate, and then the first $10m of yamamoto's deal would be at a 45% surcharge rate and the remainder ($20m+?) at the 60% cohen tax as a 3rd time repeater (110% tax overall).
so even at $30m AAV that = $32m or so in tax. plus the $50m+ posting fee beyond that.
so in real dollars yamamoto costs them about $110m in 2024, plus the additional $300m+ over the rest of the contract beyond this year.
for illustrative purposes here's how that looks tracking with their past 20 years of tax penalties and while roughly drawn it is to scale. orange is yamamoto penalty on top of current
and does not include posting fee.
the penalty would continue to rise with any additional moves they make now or inseason $2.10 for every dollar spent.
maybe he wants nyy so badly he does some kind of ohtani contract with massive deferrals, but im in the 'believe it when i see it' category.
thats a good fit.
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
yea but those were the years before Cohen took over.
1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong?
2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate?
3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)?
4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down?
The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well.
Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?
1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong?
2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate?
3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)?
4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down?
The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well.
Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?
Boras ask for Soto will be no lower than 461 (Ohtani got 460) and you have to assume will open his ask at over 500.
1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong?
2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate?
3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)?
4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down?
The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well.
Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?
I would assume Boras is going to try to make up for it with Alonso. meh
Link - ( New Window )
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.
boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.
soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.
a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.
Quote:
The way Yamamotos contract has seemingly skyrocketed.
1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong?
2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate?
3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)?
4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down?
The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well.
Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?
Boras ask for Soto will be no lower than 461 (Ohtani got 460) and you have to assume will open his ask at over 500.
I'm more surprised that people have forgotten that the reason the Nats traded Soto in the first place was that he turned down a $440M+ extension offer.
Why are people surprised two years later that his ask will almost certainly exceed $500M- he telegraphed that 2 years ago.
1) Did teams go in expecting a 10/$400mm contract. And the public and writers were wrong?
2) Was the initial reporting accurate or Is the current reporting accurate?
3) if teams were expecting $200mm, how come no one has dropped out yet? (Publicly)?
4) how has the perceived increased cost impacted each teams plans? Yankees re Soto? Dodgers re another Sp or Kershaw? Mets trying to keep tax down?
The whole thing is fascinating. And Wolfe has played this very, very well.
Last thing. For those that thinks this signing greases the wheels on the rest of the off-season. How do you think Boras handles not getting the biggest contracts of the off-season? And no media attention yet?
1. i think some of the misalignment is teams publicizing offers that include posting fee because to them it's real money, but for writers projections its not. The median projection on Yamamoto was 8x216m (28m aav), but that didn't include the posting fee so just add that and you are at 250-260m. so if we account for just that, the delta between projections and where things are now at least with the reported offers from SFG/BOS is basically just and extra year or 2.
2. the highest current reports are unclear on whether or not that posting fee is included. the highest projection is bowden's most recent 9x$304m (34m aav) which doesn't include posting fee. So the highest recent projection is +80m from the original. big increase yes. i havent seen any speculation other than eno that it could be heading to 10x350m with a $50m posting fee or a full 11x400m + posting fee on top, though for mets i think they've push this so far it would not surprise me bc it is relatively justifiable even on the ROI.
3. there are 2 things that have fundamentally skyrocketed this bidding war:
a) ohtani cash deferrals
b) yankees staying in post-ohtani (in nov hank was saying "you dont need a 300m payroll" and even a couple weeks ago martino was reporting the yankees probably couldn't do both soto/yamamoto
take LAD/NYY out and whoever gets him probably does so around +2 years over projection. Still a big increase but it's rare for a 25 year old to hit FA.
4. Soto is imo the key domino in all this. he will hit FA next year at age 26 just as big of a unicorn. perhaps bigger since he is 100% proven and plays every day. A big year for him and that deal is going over $500m+ easy.
re the last thing, Rosenthal wrote an article over the weekend pointing out that right now Boras' biggest contract is just 8th highest in MLB. once yamamoto off the board to 1 of the NY teams or LAD he will get bellinger and snell good deals but at best they are starting with 2's not 3's. Boras' moment is going to be Soto next year and he is going to milk it for all it is worth. he is going to look to 'white knight' the status quo and re-establish a new record setting deal.
Here’s something that might surprise you: Agent Scott Boras’ biggest current contract, Bryce Harper’s 13-year, $330 million deal with the Phillies, ranks only eighth in total value.
The top seven guarantees belong to Shohei Ohtani ($700 million), Mike Trout ($426.5 million), Mookie Betts ($365 million), Aaron Judge ($360 million), Manny Machado ($350 million), Francisco Lindor ($341 million) and Fernando Tatis Jr. ($340 million).
Factor in deferrals and Ohtani’s present-day value ($437.8 million according to the players’ union) is still the highest. Lindor, at $332 million, is just above Harper, Betts at $306.7 million just below.
Free-agent right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto seemingly stands a chance of passing Harper as well, not that Boras is suffering. He has negotiated five of the 10 highest average annual values in major-league history, for Max Scherzer ($43.3 million), Gerrit Cole ($36 million), Carlos Correa ($35.1 million), Stephen Strasburg ($35 million) and Anthony Rendon ($35 million).
And of course, Boras represents Juan Soto, who will hit the open market at 26 next winter and is a good bet to surpass Ohtani for the highest present-day value.
https://theathletic.com/5144998/2023/12/17/yankees-yoshinobu-yamamoto-ohtani-rosenthal/ - ( New Window )
Quote:
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.
boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.
soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.
a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.
Yankees fan here. I don't want to hijack the thread but they won't necessarily need to make that choice.
The Yankees have ~$40-50M coming off the books after this year. Even in a down year they made about $80M more than the next highest team (LAD). If they have a good year with Soto, attendance will be a little higher and that extra $ + what's coming off the books would cover Soto's next contract. The question though is whether or not they'll be willing to give it to him. That we'll have to wait and see.
Of course, YY and a Soto extension would be the last big money moves they'd make for a couple of years so would have to rely on the farm/player development to fill holes and to make trades to acquire cost-controlled talent.
Just to clarify backloading has no impact on the CBT, it's average salary over the length of the contract. Sure, they can defer money like Ohtani did but that was likely a 1 of 1 situation given Ohtani's off field value world wide. Nobody comes close.
If a team gives a player 10 years 500 million, he's salary for CBT purposes is 50 million whether he gets 50 per year or 1 for the first 9 and then 499.
Quote:
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.
boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.
soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.
a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.
The Yanks are better off waiting on a Soto extension until later. Consider this- Soto already counts for $32M for luxury tax purposes for 2024. If the Yanks go to $50M, that's really only a $18M increase in luxury tax dollars.
Remember that they have some real money coming off the books soon.
If the Yanks are going to re-sign Soto, that almost certainly means that Rizzo and his $20M (for luxury tax purposes) will be let go in FA.
Gleybar and his estimated $15M would almost certainly leave in FA as well.
Once Dominguez is fully recovered (likely in 2025), he will go to CF and push Verdugo and his estimated $9M out the door.
Kahnle ($5.75M) and Holmes (estimated $5.5M) will also likely be let go in the off-season, as the Yanks new practice of letting expensive relievers go continues.
Bottom line- people are making too much of Soto's future ask and the potential of a big new contract for a SP.
Free agent spending this winter, by team:
Dodgers: $717M
Phillies: $172M
Diamondbacks: $122M
Giants: $113M
Royals: $105M
Cardinals: $99M
Reds: $87M
Tigers: $42.75M
Braves: $30M
Rangers: $26.5M
Mets: $18M
White Sox: $16.75M
Orioles: $13M
Astros: $12M
Brewers: $10.25M
Angels: $6.8M
Guardians: $4.75M
Nationals: $4.25M
Pirates: $3.2M
A’s: $1.5M
Rays: $1.1M
Red Sox: $1M
Blue Jays: $0
Cubs: $0
Mariners: $0
Marlins: $0
Padres: $0
Rockies: $0
Twins: $0
Yankees: $0
Free agent spending this winter, by team:
Dodgers: $717M
Phillies: $172M
Diamondbacks: $122M
Giants: $113M
Royals: $105M
Cardinals: $99M
Reds: $87M
Tigers: $42.75M
Braves: $30M
Rangers: $26.5M
Mets: $18M
White Sox: $16.75M
Orioles: $13M
Astros: $12M
Brewers: $10.25M
Angels: $6.8M
Guardians: $4.75M
Nationals: $4.25M
Pirates: $3.2M
A’s: $1.5M
Rays: $1.1M
Red Sox: $1M
Blue Jays: $0
Cubs: $0
Mariners: $0
Marlins: $0
Padres: $0
Rockies: $0
Twins: $0
Yankees: $0
Funny thing is that just signing Yamamoto would vault whoever signs him (including the Yanks) into second place on that list- almost double that of third place.
Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028.
Quote:
estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture.
Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028.
That doesn't help in terms of luxury tax. The AAV of the deal is how the CBT hit is calculated. Ohtani's situation is different, he got deferred money that kicks in after his contract expires. What you're suggesting is back loading. Low salary that escalates. That wouldn't help in terms of the CBT. His total contract is how is computed.
Quote:
In comment 16328201 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture.
Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028.
That doesn't help in terms of luxury tax. The AAV of the deal is how the CBT hit is calculated. Ohtani's situation is different, he got deferred money that kicks in after his contract expires. What you're suggesting is back loading. Low salary that escalates. That wouldn't help in terms of the CBT. His total contract is how is computed.
We're saying the same thing. Paying him less in the next few years frees up cash to pay down the tax. Regardless, the Yankees are in a position to reset the tax by 2028 so it removes some of the pain of paying the tax in the short term.
Quote:
In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.
boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.
soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.
a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.
Yankees fan here. I don't want to hijack the thread but they won't necessarily need to make that choice.
The Yankees have ~$40-50M coming off the books after this year. Even in a down year they made about $80M more than the next highest team (LAD). If they have a good year with Soto, attendance will be a little higher and that extra $ + what's coming off the books would cover Soto's next contract. The question though is whether or not they'll be willing to give it to him. That we'll have to wait and see.
Of course, YY and a Soto extension would be the last big money moves they'd make for a couple of years so would have to rely on the farm/player development to fill holes and to make trades to acquire cost-controlled talent.
i get the revenue argument, but i think the scale of the revenue doesn't equal the scale of how much more tax the yankees would be committing to in the 4 years before the end of the stanton contract.
judge (40m)
+ cole (36m)
+ rodon (27m)
+ stanton (22m)
+ let's say $75m per year for yama/soto (which may be light)
= 200m for 6 players for at minimum 4 years (this is assuming both soto extension next year and yankees giving cole his extra year).
the CBT peaks at $244m in 2026 so with benefits and even only minimum salaries other than those 6 there would be literally no way to get under it over those 4 years, so it is 4 years of 3 year repeater tax level.
now add for the next 2 years, almost $30m per year more is on lemahieu and retained money from hicks/donaldson. and another 17m on rizzo this year.
then next year torres needs an extension, cortes in 2 years, so when that bad money comes off there is new money coming right behind it.
add all that up and id be pretty confident guessing that signing yamamoto and soto locks in a $300m+ payroll for at least the 4 years with stanton, which means 60m+ luxury tax bills each of those years, not just this year. and it may even be beyond those 4 years because Stanton at 22m in CBT isn't even that significant.
maybe the plan is to go all in for those 4 years that judge is still judge and cole is still cole, but that is going to be an insanely expensive all in because id imagine they still need to spend on more in other places and even a $5m contract turns into $10m out the door.
and the cherry on top is that the last big piece to extend (soto) will be the hardest with boras squeezing every ounce to set a new record.
it's possible cashman sees this group as his last stand and figures go big or go home. if he gets it accomplished he will have sold Hal on a several hundred million dollar all in. not impossible but i think it's much more likely to end up 1 of soto/yamamoto not both.
*gate
Also, there's little to no chance the Yankees bring back Torres after this year at what he's likely to get. Cortes is also unlikely but if he has a down year or gets hurt maybe they give him some cheap flier deal.
More likely is that Ben Rice gets a shot at first base next year along with LeMahieu (or my favorite idea, they try to move Spencer Jones there if they resign Soto), Vivas takes over for Torres at 2nd and Peraza moves to third (or SS and Volpe goes to third). And then trade some of the redundancy in the farm to get more pitching to round out the rotation and pen.
Quote:
In comment 16328211 Strahan91 said:
Quote:
In comment 16328201 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
estimates Ohtani is worth about 35 million per year in endorsements, next highest baseball player is Aaron Judge at 4.5 million so the likelihood of multiple players taking the Ohtani route is very low. It's annoying for baseball fans but it's also likely close to a non-issue big picture.
Ohtani is an extreme example and not really what I'm alluding to. Lets say Soto gets a 10 year $500M deal. The Yankees (or another team) could pay him $35M for the first few years freeing up $15M/year in cash on hand which could go towards paying down the tax and then pay him $60M in the years that other big contracts come off the books. In that case, they can reset the tax in 2027 or 2028.
That doesn't help in terms of luxury tax. The AAV of the deal is how the CBT hit is calculated. Ohtani's situation is different, he got deferred money that kicks in after his contract expires. What you're suggesting is back loading. Low salary that escalates. That wouldn't help in terms of the CBT. His total contract is how is computed.
We're saying the same thing. Paying him less in the next few years frees up cash to pay down the tax. Regardless, the Yankees are in a position to reset the tax by 2028 so it removes some of the pain of paying the tax in the short term.
you are taking several unlikely leaps.
1. paying extra tax is paying extra tax. deferring salary can help for cash flow, sure, just like making minimum payments on a credit card helps cash flow. doesn't make it smart.
2. if you are starting the negotiation for the biggest contract in mlb history with scott boras, it's unlikely those discussions are opening positively with big deferrals. the nationals tried that and he shot down 15x$440m 2.5 years ago.
3. as dan said, ohtani is 1/1. the only reason the credit card argument works with them is that he deferred so much of the $ and they are bringing in so much extra endorsement $. and they just reset their lux tax. and their ownership is literally financial services guys. expecting either or both of yamamoto/soto to do anything like that seems unlikely and nyy are starting from a totally different base.
even resetting the tax by 2028 would be far from a given. you would have 178m on the books with the big 5 (minus stanton), but dominguez is in his arb 3 (verdugo's arb3 is 9.2m so in 4 years if dominguez works out in cf he eat up most of the $ stanton frees up), cortes/trevino/torres/holmes (and entire BP really) are either paid or gone. resetting may not be possible until 2029 when rodon and stanton are both expired.
we talked about the Darvish projection but zips has yamamoto's zips at 3.7 fwar for 2024.
let's say over a 12 year contract he has 10 years averaging half of win below that at 3.2 fwar.
that's a ~$300m zips projection too. im not sure what their aging curve is for pitchers, maybe im a little overaggressive, but id imagine at least the next 6-8 they would project at or higher than the 3.7. senga's zip for 2024 is 3.9 for his age 31.
I tend to agree. Assuming Will Sammon is correct (and I have no reason to feel otherwise), the Mets ticket sales are likely going to be dismal this season. Hard to see a realistic scenario (outside of course them "shocking the world" and being far better than their roster would indicate) but Cohen obviously knows the numbers better than I do, ticket sales for 1 season vs. resetting the lux tax... presumably the second one is a bigger concern to him.
The Mets drew 32,994 per home game in 2023 (a good% of that was probably impacted by pre-season optimism in the team) and even then that was 11th in baseball, barely more than teams like the Brewers, seems likely they are bottom half of the league in attendance in 2024.
maybe some small amount of that is deferrable, but they are looking at spending $100m more this year so even if revenues go up i think they'd fall behind whoever was 2nd on that list.
and that is all before a soto extension.
I tend to agree. Assuming Will Sammon is correct (and I have no reason to feel otherwise), the Mets ticket sales are likely going to be dismal this season. Hard to see a realistic scenario (outside of course them "shocking the world" and being far better than their roster would indicate) but Cohen obviously knows the numbers better than I do, ticket sales for 1 season vs. resetting the lux tax... presumably the second one is a bigger concern to him.
The Mets drew 32,994 per home game in 2023 (a good% of that was probably impacted by pre-season optimism in the team) and even then that was 11th in baseball, barely more than teams like the Brewers, seems likely they are bottom half of the league in attendance in 2024.
i think writers are missing the scope of the potential pain for nyy.
what if cohen offers yamamoto a big signing bonus that's day 1 cash? if i were him that's 100% what i'd do. along with an intentionally higher AAV that passes cole and adds as much as possible to their luxury tax in the short term. id structure an offer to push them into maximum immediate pain not just here but in 12 months with boras/soto. any restructuring to defer to that pain is a worse deal for yamamoto.
this is a rare situation where a higher aav hurts the other team more than cohen. yamamoto may still well choose another team or another team may be willing to match the $, LAD is definitely low enough presently they can do that if that want without a ton of pain. but for nyy how much would anyone expect him to leave on the table? $30m? $50m?
maybe some small amount of that is deferrable, but they are looking at spending $100m more this year so even if revenues go up i think they'd fall behind whoever was 2nd on that list.
and that is all before a soto extension.
Only 2022, 2023 isn't out yet in full (just ticket sales estimate) but if you click each team you'll see those details. Not included here is the Starr insurance uniform patch (~$25M/year) which I believe is the largest of any MLB team patch deal.
Ticket sales were down last year (for obvious reasons) by ~$66M which is likely to be what's precipitated the willingness to spend this offseason. Also worth noting, the highest the Yankees ever made from ticket sales was ~$400M which was the year they won the WS after going on the big spending spree with CC, Teixeira, etc. Lowest at the new stadium was ~$230M in 2016, the last time they missed the playoffs.
Link - ( New Window )
He's still as good as all the other $15mm a year arms.
He's still as good as all the other $15mm a year arms.
He very well may need a second TJ. If he were healthy plenty of teams would be interested. His season ended with a stress reaction to his elbow.
Darvish, 37, finishes the year 8-10 with a 4.56 ERA (90 ERA+), 1.30 WHIP and 141 strikeouts in 136 1/3 innings. The 0.7 WAR is his lowest mark since his disastrous 2018 season.
Compounding matters for the Padres is they signed him to a six-year, $108 million extension prior to this season. That's a deal that runs through Darvish's age-41 season.
It should be noted that there's a chance Darvish could bounce back. He could heal from this stress issue by spring training and have a full 2024. I mentioned the disaster of a season Darvish had in 2018. He bounced back with a much better season in 2019 before finishing second in NL Cy Young voting in 2020. "
He's still as good as all the other $15mm a year arms.
Agreed. 30, 30, and 24 starts the past 3 years. But I know it would probably immediately blow up in the Mets face
Quote:
With the pitching market what it is right now - If it's a pure salary dump by the Pads - I'd take Darvish without blinking an eye.
He's still as good as all the other $15mm a year arms.
He very well may need a second TJ. If he were healthy plenty of teams would be interested. His season ended with a stress reaction to his elbow.
Can they afford NOT to take chances with SP? If all he costs is money? The one and only resource we have lol
Certainly not thinking of him as an ace anymore, but as a 5, I go for it personally and cross our fingers.
Apparently bone spurs as well
But he recently experienced unusual irritation in the elbow, prompting the decision to shut him down. Darvish will now rest for five to six weeks in hopes that the time off will allow the stress reaction to heal.
“Yu Darvish is expected to avoid arthroscopic surgery on his elbow, which was a possibility to remove spurs, and he could be full-go by the start of the season.”
Per Kevin Acee of The SD Union-Tribune
ive said in almost every post ive made "he could take less".
i dont think its my view of cohen's wealth that is giving me tunnel vision, i think it's the fact that he's given out the 2 highest AAV contracts to SP the last 2 offseasons and is the only owner who has so far shown he's willing to actually pay substantial "cohen tax".
are those things my view of his wealth or things that actually happened?
Passan directly disputing Martino saying Yamamoto's team has asked to not discuss financial terms up to this point and that bidding will begin today. So either Martino is wrong or Passan is.
Quote:
YY would take the biggest offer and because Cohen is the richest man in baseball, that would come from the Mets. But I think it's a bit of simplistic view--especially at the high numbers currently being discussed. You may be right and the Mets may just blow other teams out of the water and YY sign there, but I think your view of Cohen's wealth is giving you a bit of tunnel vision.
ive said in almost every post ive made "he could take less".
i dont think its my view of cohen's wealth that is giving me tunnel vision, i think it's the fact that he's given out the 2 highest AAV contracts to SP the last 2 offseasons and is the only owner who has so far shown he's willing to actually pay substantial "cohen tax".
are those things my view of his wealth or things that actually happened?
Thanks for proving my point. Again, you could be write but it also reads sort of like you’re trying to convince yourself of it.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
Dec 17
The Mets have not made an offer, but don’t worry , then know when to do so and they will
So...
Quote:
In comment 16328304 LW_Giants said:
Quote:
YY would take the biggest offer and because Cohen is the richest man in baseball, that would come from the Mets. But I think it's a bit of simplistic view--especially at the high numbers currently being discussed. You may be right and the Mets may just blow other teams out of the water and YY sign there, but I think your view of Cohen's wealth is giving you a bit of tunnel vision.
ive said in almost every post ive made "he could take less".
i dont think its my view of cohen's wealth that is giving me tunnel vision, i think it's the fact that he's given out the 2 highest AAV contracts to SP the last 2 offseasons and is the only owner who has so far shown he's willing to actually pay substantial "cohen tax".
are those things my view of his wealth or things that actually happened?
Thanks for proving my point. Again, you could be write but it also reads sort of like you’re trying to convince yourself of it.
"could be right*" ugh
@NYPost_Mets
Mets have acquired RHP Yohan Ramirez from the White Sox for cash considerations.
@NYPost_Mets
The Mets plan to enter their bid on Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the next couple of days. Their expectation is the Japanese pitcher will reach a decision by Christmas.
@francysromeroFR
The Seattle Mariners are the most active team for Cuban OF/DH Jorge Soler, per source.
Yankees and Marlins have also approached and have shown interest.
@jaseidler
One of the lowest hanging pitch design fixes I've seen this offseason is that the Pirates inexplicably had Ramirez stop throwing a good vertical movement, high whiff four-seam in favor of spamming a really mediocre generic sinker like 3/4 of the time
almost as sad to see yankee fans feel the need to jump into met threads to convince themselves their owner is willing to lock into the 3rd year repeater tax for the first time in a half decade.
@MLBDeadlineNews
Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray
) believes free-agent LHP Josh Hader’s contract this winter will exceed the 5-year $102M contract Edwin Diaz signed last offseason, via the Baseball Insiders livestream
Quote:
scraping up scraps hoping for a lucky guess at something.
almost as sad to see yankee fans feel the need to jump into met threads to convince themselves their owner is willing to lock into the 3rd year repeater tax for the first time in a half decade.
Eric,
Unless he's really good at role playing (and despite his confusing name on here) I think bronxboy is actually a Mets fan.
Quote:
In comment 16328339 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16328304 LW_Giants said:
Quote:
YY would take the biggest offer and because Cohen is the richest man in baseball, that would come from the Mets. But I think it's a bit of simplistic view--especially at the high numbers currently being discussed. You may be right and the Mets may just blow other teams out of the water and YY sign there, but I think your view of Cohen's wealth is giving you a bit of tunnel vision.
ive said in almost every post ive made "he could take less".
i dont think its my view of cohen's wealth that is giving me tunnel vision, i think it's the fact that he's given out the 2 highest AAV contracts to SP the last 2 offseasons and is the only owner who has so far shown he's willing to actually pay substantial "cohen tax".
are those things my view of his wealth or things that actually happened?
Thanks for proving my point. Again, you could be write but it also reads sort of like you’re trying to convince yourself of it.
"could be right*" ugh
what exactly am i trying to convince myself of?
that the yankees havent spent as much as they would have to for both soto and yamamoto before? that's just the math and will be until soto extends.
or that the cohen seems pretty likely to offer yamamoto a lot of $?
Quote:
In comment 16328390 bronxboy said:
Quote:
scraping up scraps hoping for a lucky guess at something.
almost as sad to see yankee fans feel the need to jump into met threads to convince themselves their owner is willing to lock into the 3rd year repeater tax for the first time in a half decade.
Eric,
Unless he's really good at role playing (and despite his confusing name on here) I think bronxboy is actually a Mets fan.
you're right the handle threw me and i misunderstood his comment.
Quote:
In comment 16328390 bronxboy said:
Quote:
scraping up scraps hoping for a lucky guess at something.
almost as sad to see yankee fans feel the need to jump into met threads to convince themselves their owner is willing to lock into the 3rd year repeater tax for the first time in a half decade.
Eric,
Unless he's really good at role playing (and despite his confusing name on here) I think bronxboy is actually a Mets fan.
I think this was misdirected anger that was meant for me lol. And, as I said, the Mets very well may sign him--I don't think anyone really knows where he's leaning right now, but I don't think it's as simple as "Cohen is the richest so he will win the bidding."
yeah that was my bad i took your comment differently. i do agree that they've been too yamamoto or bust, but so little has happened that could also end up a misread if they pivot aggressively post-yamamoto decision whether they get him or not. if i were them id have done more by now.
lad and nyy were aggressive pre-yamamoto and are still aggressive w/ yamamoto. mets had enough other areas of need no reason they couldnt have done the same at least in the bp and probably also lf. it may have even helped them with yamamoto. i think scherzer said the signings they made on black friday in 2021 were good to see while he was making his decision.
Quote:
In comment 16328527 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16328390 bronxboy said:
Quote:
scraping up scraps hoping for a lucky guess at something.
almost as sad to see yankee fans feel the need to jump into met threads to convince themselves their owner is willing to lock into the 3rd year repeater tax for the first time in a half decade.
Eric,
Unless he's really good at role playing (and despite his confusing name on here) I think bronxboy is actually a Mets fan.
I think this was misdirected anger that was meant for me lol. And, as I said, the Mets very well may sign him--I don't think anyone really knows where he's leaning right now, but I don't think it's as simple as "Cohen is the richest so he will win the bidding."
i dont know what team you're a fan of anymore than i do bronxboy, and i dont think ive ever said it's as simple as "cohen is the richest so he will win the bidding".
here's a simple question that will maybe clarify things, without any prediction of where he ultimately chooses if you had to guess which ny team offers more $ who would you guess?
yeah i mean i had to ctrl f after your post to recall him on a met thread, i just assumed he was the 4th or 5th yankee fan pile jumping.
ironically different than the nyy fans that visited this thread, in the other thread that turned into more of a yankee thread there's at least 3 or 4 yankee fans saying "350m is crazy for an unknown" - which as you know is something i have been sort of agreeing with since the ohtani contract pointed this one in that direction. if the mets end up being the team that goes there i hope they get it right and are prepared to keep spending to deleverage themselves.
him staying on the west coast makes a lot of sense. i originally thought lad before glasnow, thinking about it im actually a little unsure of why they went glasnow instead since he's actually less reliable than snell in terms of innings which is snells biggest downside.
snell projected at 29m and they could have kept pepiot. glasnow luxury tax is 27m. think id have just signed snell. without margot they'd have more money for yamamoto too if they were so inclined.
i called it a curveball earlier bc i think there's generally a good reason why owners arent normally this active in recruiting. not to mention owner's wives. imagine how bbi would handle john mara hosting a FA dinner with his family at his house with patrick mahomes?
1 year 8
perhaps Counsell too? though with Stearns here id put that strategy more on him, im not positive if it was specifically reported that one went to Cohen but i think it did?
maybe im the only one but every time i heard players thanking "steve and alex" it's a little cringey but usually it's been from people we were happy took the bag so it's hard to knock the results (lindor, scherzer, jv, stearns, etc).
bidding just starting today reports of 300m offers before today incorrect but expects it to get lucrative. says he expects leaks to get out unlike ohtani but be careful who to trust (specifically said martino is legit but made some comments specifically about whoever reported the sf/bos $300m stuff). re mets "every indication is the mets are serious", heavy competition, dodgers very real threat but this is all just getting started. says some surprise position player trades are out there in discussion but nothing close (did say its not arozorena or yelich or tatis jr).
Is Yoshinobu Yamamoto Domino CLOSE to Falling? - ( New Window )
-I’d call Pittsburgh about Brubaker. Had TJ in April
"Jeffmlbdraft
@jeffMLBdraft
If the Guardians moved Bieber now it's almost a salary dump from what I heard, read, and been told. Teams discount 2020, and focus on the health and down 2023. Basically, return won't equal the value of having in the rotation rather than say Curry or Lively."
Not really buying this but if Bieber is indeed "almost a salary dump" then rental or not @mets
should be "in". I'm not particularly high on Bieber for 2024 but he's sub-30 and is a deadline deal/QO candidate
@jeffMLBdraft
thats why a trade isn't happening the returns are treating it like a dump and they arent willing to do that
@jeffMLBdraft
thats why a trade isn't happening the returns are treating it like a dump and they arent willing to do that
think about it this way, he's expected to get 12.2m this year, how much more valuable is he than severino who costs nothing from FA? he only made 3 starts more than severino last year and the velocity was 2 mph down from 2020/2021 at 91.
id 100% take him over severino, the question is where is the price that works? cleveland would obviously want more now than they'd perceive getting from a comp pick. or at least something somewhat in line with a decent rental return. that's probably a prospect at least in the marco vargas or jeremy rodriguez realm and at that price i think im passing. anything lower than that is "salary dump". would i trade a vasil straight up for 1 year of him? that's probably a yes but not a no brainer.
signing giolito for 1x20m instead is a no brainer. or maybe even manaea/montas.
both allowed .284/.286 expected batting averages and 90+ mph average exit velocity. they both got hit very hard and very often. bieber allowed 91.6 mph avg ev which was 2nd percentile, severino was 90. which was 18th percentile.
not a big enough difference for a top 10 prospect. if bieber is back to throwing 93 at the deadline it will probably be a different story leaguewide and id imagine thats what cleveland is hoping for as long as they dont need to salary dump him now.
@jeffMLBdraft
·
25m
Replying to @WexlerRules @CJMinetti and 2 others
There is a world where a team takes straw as well, and then sends lesser prospects similar to Glasnow but less of a return
Devil is in the details but the price would likely have to be *significantly* lower than Glasnow's for it to make sense for @mets
. Probably makes sense for a team with less holes. Orioles, Rangers, Cubs, Padres to name a few.
Quote:
responded to me
@jeffMLBdraft
thats why a trade isn't happening the returns are treating it like a dump and they arent willing to do that
think about it this way, he's expected to get 12.2m this year, how much more valuable is he than severino who costs nothing from FA? he only made 3 starts more than severino last year and the velocity was 2 mph down from 2020/2021 at 91.
id 100% take him over severino, the question is where is the price that works? cleveland would obviously want more now than they'd perceive getting from a comp pick. or at least something somewhat in line with a decent rental return. that's probably a prospect at least in the marco vargas or jeremy rodriguez realm and at that price i think im passing. anything lower than that is "salary dump". would i trade a vasil straight up for 1 year of him? that's probably a yes but not a no brainer.
signing giolito for 1x20m instead is a no brainer. or maybe even manaea/montas.
Oh that's a hard pass from me for either one of those 2. Both are top 20 prospects in the system right now, both reasonable crack at top 10 this time next year (and yes, also a reasonable chance they don't have strong 2024's and my reluctance looks dumb, what can you do?) Risk doesn't seem worth it given what we "know" about the roster.
Similar stuff was/is coming out on the Mets side as well. Imanaga/Giolito in particular, and even LAD (Hader). Wouldn't read anything into it.
@jonmorosi
shares the latest on Yoshinobu Yamamoto's market.
Quote:
should they lose out on Yamamoto. It’s probably nothing, but maybe easing their fans into not getting him?
Similar stuff was/is coming out on the Mets side as well. Imanaga/Giolito in particular, and even LAD (Hader). Wouldn't read anything into it.
C’mon Dan, it’s Christmas! Can’t you wait until the 26th to tell me there’s no Santa Clause?
lol, so to answer my questions from yesterday. The prior reporting were in accurate. 😉
Part of the problem could be Verlander’s price tag, according to Heyman.
“He’s gonna be a lot of money,” Heyman said. “He’s gonna want the Scherzer deal. So that limits him to maybe San Francisco, LA, Houston, and the New York teams.”
https://www.nj.com/yankees/2022/11/astros-justin-verlander-to-the-yankees-not-so-fast-mlb-insider-says.html
we know how the scherzer h2h with LAD went after losing the bauer h2h in 2021.
3 negotiations isn't a big sample size but all 3 offseasons since cohen took over the mets have negotiated with the top FA SP by AAV and twice gotten that player. nobody predicted scherzer to the mets in 2021 and very few predicted jv last year. with scherzer there were rumors he was opposed to ny to the point he would have vetoed trades in-season. there was more buzz connecting the mets and yamamoto pre-FA than any of the other 3.
the past doesnt predict the future and money isnt everything for everyone but i think we can be confident the mets will be aggressive with the $ and that usually gives teams a shot. if he chooses the pinstripes for less so be it. the only frustrating outcome for me would be hearing the mets didnt offer more $ because if they dont do that then what was the point?
yamamoto's process has been reasonable and coming from a foreign league it's understandable.
ohtani's process was ridiculous. actually i dont care about the process just the time it took him to decide. he had 2.5 months from the season ending, he apparently knew what he wanted in the contract and offered the same deal to all of his contenders, he has played in the MLB for 6 years so he has seen all the cities (especially socal), couldnt he have decided 1 week earlier ahead of the WM?
@YamadaSANSPO
#松井裕樹 投手(楽天から海外FA)は #パドレス と合意。身体検査をクリアすれば正式契約へ。
Yuki #Matsui, a left-handed reliever from the Rakuten Golden Eagles in the NPB, is close to signing with the #Padres, pending physical. Sources confirmed to Sankei Sports.
@jonmorosi
Source: The Angels have had recent dialogue with Blake Snell, the reigning NL Cy Young Award winner.
Of note: Since the Angels aren't viewed as a strong candidate to sign Yamamoto, they don't need to wait on Yamamoto's choice to act in the pitching market.
@extrabaggs
Fresh info: The Giants' meeting with Yoshinobu Yamamoto last week was in SF, not at his agency in LA. Tons of speculation it's between NY teams (plus LAD), but Giants have been assured they will be given every consideration. That and more in Mailbagg Pt.2:
@BobKlap
Growing sense among teams bidding on Yoshinobu Yamamato is that a decision won't be made until after Christmas. Could stretch into the January 1-4 window.
“ Do know the difference between disinterested and uninterested?Disinterested has two meanings. The first and most widely accepted one is “impartial; unbiased by personal interest or advantage” as in “A disinterested observer is the best judge of behavior.” The second meaning is “not interested,” as in “Having not followed Justin Bieber’s career, she was disinterested in the artist’s new release.”
Link - ( New Window )
Link - ( New Window )
Yamamoto still in LA w agent deciding where he wants to go
Yankees and dodgers have always been “in a great position”
Mets have always been in “more of a hopeful category” but Steve cohen is in the process of making a “very serious offer”
Says those are all facts, everything else is “speculation and a lot of misinformation”
https://twitter.com/snytv/status/1737266563521155472?s=46&t=9suZv9yHb2gQ-IFO_3u4Vw - ( New Window )
Yamamoto still in LA w agent deciding where he wants to go
Yankees and dodgers have always been “in a great position”
Mets have always been in “more of a hopeful category” but Steve cohen is in the process of making a “very serious offer”
Says those are all facts, everything else is “speculation and a lot of misinformation” https://twitter.com/snytv/status/1737266563521155472?s=46&t=9suZv9yHb2gQ-IFO_3u4Vw - ( New Window )
Funny considering it was he who said “one source tells me the dinner went well, another said it went poorly” lol
Quote:
Teams involved all still waiting for news
Yamamoto still in LA w agent deciding where he wants to go
Yankees and dodgers have always been “in a great position”
Mets have always been in “more of a hopeful category” but Steve cohen is in the process of making a “very serious offer”
Says those are all facts, everything else is “speculation and a lot of misinformation” https://twitter.com/snytv/status/1737266563521155472?s=46&t=9suZv9yHb2gQ-IFO_3u4Vw - ( New Window )
Funny considering it was he who said “one source tells me the dinner went well, another said it went poorly” lol
He mentioned in the clip that there’s been a bigger fog of war with yamamoto than any free agency anyone has been involved and from the outside that seems hyperbolic because his process has seemed pretty typical. Met with teams/owners, went to a few cities, timeline seems reasonable, some rumors but nothing too crazy. Even if he ends up close to double his projected deal, he won’t be the first from a foreign league this year or last year to do so.
nobody worth it is ever going to be easy to get. a dodger beat from LA times reported the team expected him to sign with toronto the day before he announced on instagram that he chose lad. the scherzer signing didnt seem real even after it was announced.
as prioritized as yamamoto appears to be the hype is very likely going to exceed the actual difference between spending $350m+ on him and whatever combination of other players you can buy for the same $. most expensive pitcher ever is a pretty high bar.
Ohtani, obviously, is in a separate category, and not simply because he is a two-way player. He was 23 when he signed, and his age restricted his bonus under international amateur signing rules to $2.3 million. The better comparisons for Yamamoto are Matsuzaka, Darvish and Tanaka, who faced no salary limits.
Like Yamamoto, Darvish and Tanaka were entering their age 25 seasons. Matsuzaka was a bit older, entering his age 26 campaign. Looking back, as the bidding for Yamamoto intensifies, their major-league experiences could be viewed as at least somewhat instructive.
Matsuzaka, who joined the Red Sox on a six-year, $52 million contract after the team won his rights with a $51.11 million posting fee, made a combined 61 starts in his first two seasons with Boston, 55 in his final four. His injuries included a torn elbow ligament that required Tommy John surgery. His adjusted ERA with the Red Sox was barely above league average, and after his contract expired he spent two unremarkable seasons with the Mets.
Darvish, who joined the Rangers on a six-year, $56 million deal in addition to a $51.7 million posting fee, is perhaps the most successful of all Japanese pitchers, a two-time Cy Young runner-up and five-time All-Star entering his 12th major-league season. He also has had elbow issues, requiring Tommy John surgery in 2015, arthroscopic elbow surgery in 2018 and a shutdown stemming from a stress reaction at the end of 2023. But his career adjusted ERA is 17 percent above league average. Zack Greinke, a strong Hall of Fame candidate, is 21 percent above.
Tanaka, who joined the Yankees on a seven-year, $155 million free-agent deal, also enjoyed a successful major-league run, even after getting diagnosed with a partially torn elbow ligament in his first season. Avoiding surgery, he averaged 27 starts in his six full seasons before the shortened 2020 campaign. According to Fangraphs’ dollars metric, which is WAR converted to a dollar scale based on what a player would earn in free agency, Tanaka slightly outperformed his contract with his regular-season performance. He also was a stalwart in the postseason, producing a 3.33 ERA in 10 starts.
At his best, even Matsuzaka showed why he was so hyped – in his second season, he went 18-3 with a 2.90 ERA and led the majors in opponents’ batting average. Yet even Darvish’s full body of work demonstrates the risk of awarding a deal of 10 or more years to Yamamoto, who has never pitched in the majors, and while extremely athletic, is only 5-foot-10 and 176 pounds. Major-league executives, though, do not seem deterred by his smallish stature.
Darvish is clearly the hope. Through 11 years he has earned almost $200m in his career, plus the $51.7m posting fee. 11 years later, some arm troubles included, and it's not so hard to see why a comparable pitcher would be priced beyond that for the next decade.
Rosenthal: How Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s free agency compares to past Japanese pitchers - ( New Window )
Whether this is a brief spree in the wake of the Ohtani signing, or a true recalibration of how the team plans to spend, remains to be seen.
If the Dodgers miss out on Yamamoto, it’s more likely they’ll turn back to the trade market — and not another highly-coveted free agent, such as two-time Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell — in their search for additional pitching. Corbin Burnes of the Milwaukee Brewers and Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox remain potential targets.
https://www.latimes.com/sports/dodgers/story/2023-12-19/dodgers-shohei-ohtani-billion-dollar-revenue - ( New Window )
it would suck to miss on yamamoto, but it would suck more if Quintana/Severino are penciled in as anything higher than the #4/5 starters.
depth is a weapon worth spending on, and i agree with heyman that snell (and Woodruff) are both worth seriously pursuing if they miss on yamamoto. Snell - Senga - Woodruff is a very credible top 3 for 2025 if Woodruff can make it back healthy.
This should be Mets’ Plan B to Yoshinobu Yamamoto chase - ( New Window )
that's the question. id have no problem with signing any expensive reliever (including hader, though that seems beyond highly unlikely for the same reason).
if they are going to add an expensive reliever i think it will be someone who also has a chance at being a 6th starter like yariel rodriguez. it seems like that's the role fedde likely would have been in if he'd signed here.
Link - ( New Window )
And now the Giants, after whiffing in free agency on some big names in the past 12 months, have spent their big bullet on Jung Hoo Lee. And traded for Hopkins.
So when I said “a ton of outfielders,” I wasn’t being hyperbolic. In fact, I was underselling the size of the glut. Despite not really having a huge dude to speak of (Meckler is about the size I was in seventh grade), the players I’ve mentioned — all on the 40-man roster, all either outfielders or outfield-experienced — total 2,737 pounds. That’s not a ton; that’s 1.37 tons. That’s a metric ton, with quite a bit of room to spare."
Link - ( New Window )
Better cover the bullpens
This is making this hurt even more. Man this signing of a player who has never pitched an MLB inning has me unreasonably looking at this team as at a crossroads. I don't know why but losing Yamamoto feels like a huge setback. But I admitting I am not sure why I feel like this. I love this team.
Outcome #1: We get Yamamoto. This is the most desirable to me. I am a believer, but I tend to be more on the optimistic side usually, but the potential build of the rotation with Yamamoto and Senga at the top seems like it would be very strong.
Outcome #2: We miss on Yamamoto, and are able to pivot and somehow get under the luxury tax threshold, resetting for the 2025 season. I still think this is a positive outcome. Whether or not Yamamoto is a Met, this is many ways is a development year for many prospects with the Mets both at the big club and in the high minors. The foundation, at least offensively, seems promising. I'm with (I think Eric on LI) who would really entertain moving Alonso in this scenario, hopefully Marte as well, and get us under the threshold.
This would allow Cohen to really be able to be uber aggressive next year and see what we have with the foundation moving forward.
Option #3: We miss on Yamamoto, but stay above the luxury tax. The worst option for me, but still, everything above holds true except the additional year of luxury tax implications. But with another losing season, I have to think the team has to consider re-setting that luxury tax.
Outcome #1: We get Yamamoto. This is the most desirable to me. I am a believer, but I tend to be more on the optimistic side usually, but the potential build of the rotation with Yamamoto and Senga at the top seems like it would be very strong.
Outcome #2: We miss on Yamamoto, and are able to pivot and somehow get under the luxury tax threshold, resetting for the 2025 season. I still think this is a positive outcome. Whether or not Yamamoto is a Met, this is many ways is a development year for many prospects with the Mets both at the big club and in the high minors. The foundation, at least offensively, seems promising. I'm with (I think Eric on LI) who would really entertain moving Alonso in this scenario, hopefully Marte as well, and get us under the threshold.
This would allow Cohen to really be able to be uber aggressive next year and see what we have with the foundation moving forward.
Option #3: We miss on Yamamoto, but stay above the luxury tax. The worst option for me, but still, everything above holds true except the additional year of luxury tax implications. But with another losing season, I have to think the team has to consider re-setting that luxury tax.
I think it's the ridicule that is triggering me. I even have pjcas (who I like) going out of character.
$50m retained
+$34m lindor
+40m marte/nimmo
+30m diaz/senga
+25m spent on 1 year options/fas already (severino, wendle, raley, rp etc)
so you are at about $200m before you even get to Alonso, Quintana, McNeil, or signing anyone else.
even with a crazy firesale getting under the luxury tax in 2024 is not realistic.
in 2025 $75m of the above comes off the books along with Alonso. So they are starting next offseason $100m lower than they are now before dumping anyone else.
if they arent over .500 at deadline i would imagine they consider selling players off just like scherzer/jv if they can get value (diaz, nimmo, mcneil, alonso). i dont think that is plan A though.
player nicknames per @baseball_ref
1/2
Adams- A²
Alonso-Polar Bear
McNeil-Squirrel, Flying Squirrel, Jeff McHits (?)
Lindor-Mr. Smile
Nimmo- Nimms (?) or Tater (?)
Marte- Tato
Mauricio- El Chimi
Nido-Needz (?)
Quintana-Q or Lelo (?)
SRF-SR-F
Megill- Big Drip
Lucchesi-Fuego or Joey Fuego
Smith- Smitty
Lopez-El Pichu
Narváez- Narvy
Severino- Sevy or Pena
Diaz- Sugar
Wendle- Mendle or Big Bopper
Quote:
I see two positive outcomes and one I wouldn't say is a negative but not as positive.
Outcome #1: We get Yamamoto. This is the most desirable to me. I am a believer, but I tend to be more on the optimistic side usually, but the potential build of the rotation with Yamamoto and Senga at the top seems like it would be very strong.
Outcome #2: We miss on Yamamoto, and are able to pivot and somehow get under the luxury tax threshold, resetting for the 2025 season. I still think this is a positive outcome. Whether or not Yamamoto is a Met, this is many ways is a development year for many prospects with the Mets both at the big club and in the high minors. The foundation, at least offensively, seems promising. I'm with (I think Eric on LI) who would really entertain moving Alonso in this scenario, hopefully Marte as well, and get us under the threshold.
This would allow Cohen to really be able to be uber aggressive next year and see what we have with the foundation moving forward.
Option #3: We miss on Yamamoto, but stay above the luxury tax. The worst option for me, but still, everything above holds true except the additional year of luxury tax implications. But with another losing season, I have to think the team has to consider re-setting that luxury tax.
I think it's the ridicule that is triggering me. I even have pjcas (who I like) going out of character.
Because you're acting like a spineless jellyfish. what ridicule? and who gives a F? You mentioned being a grown man and a father when I said you were acting like a loser - imagine how your behavior would look in the eyes of your children? it's a f-ing baseball team, we all want them to win, but you were apoplectic when they signed Severino for the back of the rotation (to the same money as Carrasco got this past year to pitch to a 6 ERA).
you need to take a breath and let it play out, I'd rather if they miss on Yamamoto to sit on the sidelines and let Stearns build a team for the long haul. and no idea why are you concerned with the optics if they need to "overpay" Yamamoto, who cares it's one of the advantages of having Cohen as the owner. I don't mean it personally but you seem like you are having a breakdown. Maybe something else going on in your life bleeding into sports and you need an outlet or something. Maybe get some help. Seriously.
@JimBowdenGM
The latest that I'm hearing re: Yamamoto
Favorites to land him: #Dodgers or #Yankees
Expected highest bidders: #Mets or #Giants
Backburner teams: #RedSox #Phillies #BlueJays
Time Frame: This week
Projected contract: $250-$300 million
Expected posting fee: $50m
Expected length: 8-12 years depending on offer
Agent: Joel Wolfe - Wasserman
What's more important, offer or team situation: N/A
Now we wait.
Héctor Gómez
@hgomez27
Starling Marte will play in the Dominican Winter League with @EscogidoBBClub
.
@mikemayer22
Starling Marte was at practice today with the Leones del Escogido of the Dominican Winter League.
The team says he took batting practice and they’re waiting to get permission from the Mets to activate Marte.
100%. i have no idea if they can measure sprint speed or bat speed in winter league, but he was so bad with the eye test in the field last year that alone would have value.
Quote:
In comment 16330235 allstarjim said:
Quote:
I see two positive outcomes and one I wouldn't say is a negative but not as positive.
Outcome #1: We get Yamamoto. This is the most desirable to me. I am a believer, but I tend to be more on the optimistic side usually, but the potential build of the rotation with Yamamoto and Senga at the top seems like it would be very strong.
Outcome #2: We miss on Yamamoto, and are able to pivot and somehow get under the luxury tax threshold, resetting for the 2025 season. I still think this is a positive outcome. Whether or not Yamamoto is a Met, this is many ways is a development year for many prospects with the Mets both at the big club and in the high minors. The foundation, at least offensively, seems promising. I'm with (I think Eric on LI) who would really entertain moving Alonso in this scenario, hopefully Marte as well, and get us under the threshold.
This would allow Cohen to really be able to be uber aggressive next year and see what we have with the foundation moving forward.
Option #3: We miss on Yamamoto, but stay above the luxury tax. The worst option for me, but still, everything above holds true except the additional year of luxury tax implications. But with another losing season, I have to think the team has to consider re-setting that luxury tax.
I think it's the ridicule that is triggering me. I even have pjcas (who I like) going out of character.
Because you're acting like a spineless jellyfish. what ridicule? and who gives a F? You mentioned being a grown man and a father when I said you were acting like a loser - imagine how your behavior would look in the eyes of your children? it's a f-ing baseball team, we all want them to win, but you were apoplectic when they signed Severino for the back of the rotation (to the same money as Carrasco got this past year to pitch to a 6 ERA).
you need to take a breath and let it play out, I'd rather if they miss on Yamamoto to sit on the sidelines and let Stearns build a team for the long haul. and no idea why are you concerned with the optics if they need to "overpay" Yamamoto, who cares it's one of the advantages of having Cohen as the owner. I don't mean it personally but you seem like you are having a breakdown. Maybe something else going on in your life bleeding into sports and you need an outlet or something. Maybe get some help. Seriously.
pj - I said it as a compliment. We have had some pleasurable conversations about my son and youth hockey. So I recognize your handle as "a friend". It's an internet message board so I gambled and lost. I am not going to reply with insults because I think you're better than this. Just keep in mind something, you may not be fully aware what's going on in someone's life before you get mad. My fault for venting but I have had some pleasant exchanges with you. I am using this is an outlet and distraction.
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
Mets acquiring RHP Adrian Houser and OF Tyrone Taylor from Brewers for a minor leaguer, source tells
@TheAthletic
.
@MarinoMLB
·
Eduardo Escobar for Coleman Crow and Landon Marceaux and then Coleman Crow for Houser and Tyrone Taylor is a pretty good outcome IMO. Very nice flipping.
he has played CF well by both DRS/OAA and can play all 3 positions. not huge splits in his career. he has 3 years of control and is cheap this year. this seems like a solid cheap backup CF.
never walks but not a huge k guy either. michael taylor or kiermeier likely better defenders but appears to be a good cheap alternative. his RC is actually predicted higher than keirmeier's next year. in 2022 he was worth 2 wins.
he looks to have a pretty similar floor to keirmeier with a little lower ceiling, but at a 1/10th the price.
seems like a pretty savvy move, especially if they are looking to fill some slots cheaply because they are spending bigger on 1-2 other pieces.
Not sexy, but desperately needed
i think this is almost definitely a sign they are out on keirmeir or m taylor.
t taylor has been the better hitter than m taylor last 3 years, also lower k. defense isn't gg like m taylor but it still appears +.
presuming stearns is familiar with both and thinks they are good fits, this seems like a nice value move. i think houser may be better than fedde would have been and he's cheaper.
From 2022
Track Record: Jensen touched 98 mph and was the Mountain West Conference pitcher of the year as a junior at Fresno State, but the Cubs still went above industry consensus when they drafted him 27th overall in 2019. Concerns about Jensen’s control appeared well-founded at the start of his full-season debut with High-A South Bend in 2021, but he locked in his delivery and release point midway through the year. He posted a 2.28 ERA in his final 11 starts and rose to Double-A.
Scouting Report: Jensen is undersized, but he is a power pitcher with a pair of plus-plus fastballs that overwhelm hitters. His four-seamer averages 96 mph and rides above barrels and his two-seamer averages 95 mph and breaks bats with its late run and bore. Jensen’s mid-80s slider with lateral run is an above-average pitch and he introduced a vertical curveball last year that flashes average. His upper-80s changeup gets swings and misses in the strike zone but doesn’t get chase swings. Jensen has an effortful delivery with a long arm action that leads to inconsistent mechanics and bouts of below-average control. He’s a good athlete who took off when he found a consistent release point.
The Future: Jensen has the stuff to be a hard-throwing back-end starter if he maintains his delivery and release point. If not, his stuff should play in late relief.
Quote:
In comment 16330250 Drewcon40 said:
Quote:
In comment 16330235 allstarjim said:
Quote:
I see two positive outcomes and one I wouldn't say is a negative but not as positive.
Outcome #1: We get Yamamoto. This is the most desirable to me. I am a believer, but I tend to be more on the optimistic side usually, but the potential build of the rotation with Yamamoto and Senga at the top seems like it would be very strong.
Outcome #2: We miss on Yamamoto, and are able to pivot and somehow get under the luxury tax threshold, resetting for the 2025 season. I still think this is a positive outcome. Whether or not Yamamoto is a Met, this is many ways is a development year for many prospects with the Mets both at the big club and in the high minors. The foundation, at least offensively, seems promising. I'm with (I think Eric on LI) who would really entertain moving Alonso in this scenario, hopefully Marte as well, and get us under the threshold.
This would allow Cohen to really be able to be uber aggressive next year and see what we have with the foundation moving forward.
Option #3: We miss on Yamamoto, but stay above the luxury tax. The worst option for me, but still, everything above holds true except the additional year of luxury tax implications. But with another losing season, I have to think the team has to consider re-setting that luxury tax.
I think it's the ridicule that is triggering me. I even have pjcas (who I like) going out of character.
Because you're acting like a spineless jellyfish. what ridicule? and who gives a F? You mentioned being a grown man and a father when I said you were acting like a loser - imagine how your behavior would look in the eyes of your children? it's a f-ing baseball team, we all want them to win, but you were apoplectic when they signed Severino for the back of the rotation (to the same money as Carrasco got this past year to pitch to a 6 ERA).
you need to take a breath and let it play out, I'd rather if they miss on Yamamoto to sit on the sidelines and let Stearns build a team for the long haul. and no idea why are you concerned with the optics if they need to "overpay" Yamamoto, who cares it's one of the advantages of having Cohen as the owner. I don't mean it personally but you seem like you are having a breakdown. Maybe something else going on in your life bleeding into sports and you need an outlet or something. Maybe get some help. Seriously.
pj - I said it as a compliment. We have had some pleasurable conversations about my son and youth hockey. So I recognize your handle as "a friend". It's an internet message board so I gambled and lost. I am not going to reply with insults because I think you're better than this. Just keep in mind something, you may not be fully aware what's going on in someone's life before you get mad. My fault for venting but I have had some pleasant exchanges with you. I am using this is an outlet and distraction.
I hope things are ok with your personal life, the only reason I even commented the way I did is it seemed out of context the way you were acting/commenting.
no bad blood on my end.
Easy kid to root for
I hope things are ok with your personal life, the only reason I even commented the way I did is it seemed out of context the way you were acting/commenting.
no bad blood on my end.
I appreciate that pj. Thank you
Taylor has been excellent in a 4th OF role this year, hitting .282/.378/.564 in 45 PA with 3 HR and 1 SB. A quick return to the IL by Christian Yelich and a brutal start by Jackie Bradley Jr. should open up some more playing time for Taylor as opposed to just spotting in against lefties. Taylor averaged 20 HR and 10 SB per 500 PA in Triple-A with an .813 OPS.
I actually wrote Taylor up recently and he was sent down as I was finished that piece only to return almost immediately because of Yelich’s re-injury. I mentioned that he was mostly an NL-only consideration in that piece, but that was with Yelich and Lorenzo Cain returning to join JBJ and Avisaíl García. Cain is back and Garcia is surging, but as I mentioned earlier Bradley has struggled badly thus far (59 wRC+) so the Brewers would be justified in giving Taylor some more burn to see if he can do anything against righties.
"prototypical 4th of" seems to be the general consensus.
Easy kid to root for
I didn't but the scouts/Mets all think he's made for the big city. Doesn't get too high or low. Not quite David Wright but that "kind" of kid.
@martinonyc
·
3m
It was Yamamoto or houser
Jk they’re very much hoping to sign Yamamoto this week
Yeah, both Houser and Lauer (currently a FA actually) have def being discussed on BBI.
If we are looking at Brewers depth arms, Eric Lauer is a FA. Horrendous 2023 but only 29 in June 2021-2022 almost 300 quality innings for MIL. Wouldn't be a horrible minor league deal, invite to ST
Michael Marino
@MarinoMLB
·
Adrian Houser getting $6 million this year coming off a 1.8 WAR season. Lance Lynn signed for $11M this upcoming year coming off a 0.5 WAR season…there’s definitely some value here comparatively with Milwaukee trying to dump cash.
yes
Quote:
as a possible return for like duda or someone like that.
Yeah, both Houser and Lauer (currently a FA actually) have def being discussed on BBI.
If we are looking at Brewers depth arms, Eric Lauer is a FA. Horrendous 2023 but only 29 in June 2021-2022 almost 300 quality innings for MIL. Wouldn't be a horrible minor league deal, invite to ST
Eric Lauer was really bad in 2023... BUT... 2021+2022 53 appearances (49 starts) 3.47 era/4.30 FIP over 277.1 innings. 100% think he'd be worth a minor league deal with an invite to ST
Mathew Brownstein
@MBrownstein89
·
Adrian Houser was part of the deal that sent Josh Hader from the Astros to the Brewers in July 2015. Milwaukee sent Mike Fiers & Carlos Gómez to Houston.
This was after the failed trade between the #Mets & Brewers that had Zack Wheeler & Wilmer Flores being flipped for Gómez.
@ZackScottSports
Good deal for the Mets. Before the '21 season, the Brewers asked me about McNeil for Houser. This is better.😀 #Mets #Brewers #MLB
big years ahead for baty + vientos.
interesting deal - his median projected was 2x8m (16m). so he gets +5m guaranteed spread over more years.
clemens was high man on him at 3x10m.
Link - ( New Window )
Eno did a good article on yamamoto that was also somewhat applicable to imanaga. yamamoto's 3 year k-bb% would be 3rd best on this list at 22.2%. in 2023 it was 22.5%.
in 2023 imanaga's k%-bb% = 25.8%
imanaga gave up homers at a 10x rate, most on this list, he's 5 years older than yamamoto, and his raw stuff isnt the same but after his stuff+ success in wbc and senga's over-performance last year who knows?
at various points ive wondered how much of the mets pitch to yamamoto is him leading a rotation that's all-team-japan and going full on 6 man.
magic wand best outcome of rest of offseason, this might be it:
yamamoto
senga
imanaga
severino
quintana
houser (competing w/ megill, luchesi, etc)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiIfR2Ovgu0&ab_channel=PackBrewBuck6 - ( New Window )
garrett, bickford, short can all go. i assume milwaukee didnt want the salary, but drew smith getting swapped for more useful spare pieces not unlike yesterdays trade is another. 2 more IL spots eventually coming back also so they just need to preplan those maneuvers. presumably those spots will go to 2 arms on ST invites.
From pre-2023 Scouting Report: Castaneda pitches from the first base side of the rubber and tends to fly open early. He delivers the ball with a long arm swing in the back that moves into a three-quarters slot, and he throws a fastball in the low 90s that touches 94 mph. He keeps hitters off balance by throwing his offspeed stuff more than his fastball. The pitch that draws the most praise is his low-80s splitter, which kills spin and has late tumble when it's on to miss bats, though it's the pitch he has most trouble commanding. Castaneda also throws an average changeup primarily against lefties. His slider improved in 2022 and he has feel to spin it, typically in the 2,600-2,700 rpm range, with enough movement to get empty swings against righties. Castaneda isn't wild, but especially for a pitcher with a hittable fastball, he will need to tighten his command after he walked 10% of batters last year.
The Future: Castaneda has developed as a starter, though there's a chance he ends up in the bullpen, where he could find a role pitching backwards and giving hitters a different look in low-leverage situations. He'll return to Triple-A and could make his debut by the end of 2023.
Scouting Grades: Fastball: 40. Slider: 50. Changeup: 50. Splitter: 55. Control: 45.
Quote:
On the 40 now. I’d still probably pickup Patino (DFA’ed by Chicago) more interesting than Garrett
garrett, bickford, short can all go. i assume milwaukee didnt want the salary, but drew smith getting swapped for more useful spare pieces not unlike yesterdays trade is another. 2 more IL spots eventually coming back also so they just need to preplan those maneuvers. presumably those spots will go to 2 arms on ST invites.
Patino hasn't been very good but he just turned 24 in October and was a top 25 prospect in baseball a few years ago
ospect Rankings
Baseball America Pre-2019 #67
Pre-2020 #18
Pre-2021 #23
Baseball America: The best source for minor league news and info
Major League Baseball Pre-2019 #48
Pre-2020 #27
Pre-2021 #19
Prospect ratings from Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com
Baseball Prospectus Pre-2019 #74
Pre-2020 #15
Pre-2021 #25
Prospect ratings from Baseball Prospectus
Futures Game
So this seems like guy they could bring in and dump if he stinks
Link - ( New Window )
The same could be said these days about Houser. But Houser’s success is much more dependent on one pitch: his sinker. According to Baseball Savant’s run value statistic, Houser’s sinker is the ninth-best pitch in baseball. Houser can still have trouble against left-handed batters, but his four-seam fastball is faring much better against them this season. His 59 percent groundball rate is by far the highest among pitchers in baseball who have thrown at least 120 innings, and Houser has unquestionably benefited from the Brewers’ improved defense; his strikeout numbers resemble last year’s. Similar to Lauer, Houser can sometimes suddenly lose command — with his pitches running more horizontally than desired — which leads to walks after a few dominant innings in a given start, presenting the look of someone who is enigmatic. But the overall numbers have been strong.
“Adrian is having a really nice season,” Counsell said. “Just look at the numbers, look at the body of work. It’s clearly a step forward if you measure it over a season’s length. He’s getting better. As much as anything, it’s experience. I think his sinker is better this year. That pitch is a better pitch this year and there’s a lot of metrics that bear that out. It’s been a more effective pitch. Everything else gets lumped in there; command and secondary pitches.”
Another good one from Sammon from 2020:
https://theathletic.com/1985559/2020/08/10/what-a-long-way-hes-come-adrian-houser-might-be-ready-to-take-center-stage/
“In my mind, as the fourth player in the deal, it was like, ‘We can march this guy into Double A and give him to Chris Hook,’” Minasian said, “and say, ‘Hookie, have at him. See what you can do with this guy.’”
Plenty, it turns out.
Hook was Biloxi’s pitching coach in 2015. He’s now in his second year as the Brewers’ pitching coach. In other words, he’s seen the evolution of Houser from throw-in trade piece to perhaps the Brewers’ second-best starting pitcher.
Hook first saw Houser pitch in a doubleheader in 2015 with Hader. After watching them pitch for the first time, he thought to himself, “This is going to be fantastic.”
In Houser’s case, it’s taken some time. He had a 5.25 ERA while pitching for Biloxi in 2016. In July of that year, he underwent Tommy John surgery. At that point, MLB.com ranked him as the Brewers’ 17th-best prospect. In 2018, he had a 5.03 ERA across 78 2/3 innings combined in Double A and Triple A.
While pitching in and out of the Brewers’ rotation last season, Houser began using his sinker with more conviction. In 35 appearances, including 18 starts, Houser recorded a 3.72 ERA in 111 1/3 innings. He struck out 117, which equated to 9.5 strikeouts every nine innings. His previous best in any full professional season was 8.4, but that was in rookie ball in 2012 while he was still with the Astros.
The peripherals and advanced statistics pointed to a potential breakout in 2020. Last year, Houser was able to produce a solid strikeout rate and groundball rate because of his four-seam usage high in the zone (where he generated whiffs) mixed with his sinker low in the zone. He threw his four-seam fastball 31.3 percent of the time last year, and the pitch posted an xBA of .187 in 2019. He featured the sinker 36 percent of the time, limiting batters to a .216 xBA.
“Last year he found out where that sinker plays,” Hook said. “I think he understands it now. It’s a strength of his, and he’s going to challenge hitters with that. It plays against even the best hitters in the league. His ability to throw the sinker and the depth of that pitch along with the four-seam plays really well for him. And he knows how to use it.
“There has to be a belief system that this works. And he got to that point last year. Now it’s a matter of sharpening that, commanding that pitch consistently. He’s doing that right now.”
keith law picked him as a breakout player ahead of 2021, predicting a league average starter who can eat innings:
The Brewers have quietly developed a couple of aces or near-aces in Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff, bringing both guys along in relief roles first and then moving them to the rotation. Houser seemed like he was on that path for 2020, but when play resumed in July, he wasn’t very sharp, losing about a mile an hour off his fastball from 2019, and the Brewers’ porous defense let him down further – he had the 11th-highest BABIP of any pitcher with at least 50 IP last year. A normal offseason and a much better Milwaukee defense should help him become a league-average starter, and he certainly has the build and delivery to soak up some innings in that role.
he's thrown about 350 innings in 3 years since then worth about 4.5 fwar. so probably just a bit worse than league average.
sort of encouraging 2023 was his most productive year so far even though he only threw 111 innings and had a career low GB% and a higher than usual BABIP/HR rate.
out of megill, houser, luchesi, i think houser is easily the most likely to produce.
https://theathletic.com/2455768/2021/03/17/2021-mlb-breakout-candidates-keith-law-picks-seven-players-ready-to-take-a-step-forward/
Beyond the Big 3: Red-hot Adrian Houser and Eric Lauer give the Brewers enticing postseason options - ( New Window )
minor league deal?
Quote:
***@mets signing*** the Mets have signed RHP Victor Castaneda formerly a member of @RaysBaseball. Castaneda (25 years old) currently has a 3.95 era over 12 stars in the MXPW this winter. Castaneda was originally signed by... who else? MIL back in 2017 BA #Mets
minor league deal?
Yes.
@ZackScottSports
Good deal for the Mets. Before the '21 season, the Brewers asked me about McNeil for Houser. This is better
@francysromeroFR
The Blue Jays, Pirates, Astros and Yankees are still in the bidding for Cuban RHP free agent Yariel Rodriguez (26), per sources.
@ZackScottSports
Good deal for the Mets. Before the '21 season, the Brewers asked me about McNeil for Houser. This is better
posted that yesterday, what's most interesting about this is that milwaukee was trying to "buy high" on mcneil,
so id imagine that means mil/stearns were pretty decent fans of mcneils. and also correlate to them thinking both he and houser had substantial value. pre-2021 mcneil had been worth 9 fwar in just under 2 full seasons of games (partial call up year 6th in roy voting, full 2019 all star season, short covid year).
also re houser, if you squint, he's not so far off what montgomery was when the yankees traded him for bader before he had his 2 big innings seasons. and bader for montgomery wasnt such a far off trade from the not completed mcneil/houser. no i am not saying "who needs montgomery, they traded for houser!", what i am saying is the value of this return seems real strong for an injured arm they got for half a year of escobar. houser seems to have a solid floor as a useful innings eater and at times has flashed more than that. good depth pickup.
as it should have been, at that point mcneil was one of the top 2b in baseball with position flex and a bunch of years of cheap control. he was a better/cheaper zobrist entering his a29. at that point you couldnt trade him for anything other than a really high end young pitcher. honestly woodruff would have been a fair counter offer (entering his a28, he'd been worth 6.3 fwar in 4 seasons).
at that point houser was probably somewhere in the value neighborhood of a healthy peterson and a few years younger than mcneil. so thats obviously not enough by itself for any all star with years of cheap control.
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
Source: Former Brewers and Marlins first baseman Jesús Aguilar is signing with the Seibu Lions in Japan.
with bauer especially there was a lot of public negotiating, with boras players there is always some amount of public posturing. yamamoto has taken meetings, done his visits, they've confirmed the teams involved, but have mostly just been pretty low key. especially if martino ends up correct that there is a decision coming in the next few days.
I am starting to warm to logical thinking to some of you like pj and allstarjim's thinking. I really want Yamamoto but am I buying into this Yankees vs Mets fan nonsense or is he really the arm we need? (Both?)
I am coming around to Stearns' vision and first few moves. pjcas credit to you on reminding me on how the Severino trade should be viewed, I think I read a few Yankee comments and reacted.
he was 1 call away from $315m for boras last year, i doubt much has changed.
stearns is clearly playing things a lot more low key and seemingly disciplined, so he is the wild card. how high is his number for yamamoto? what's his plan b? i complimented yamamoto's team for their apparent lack of leaks and i think stearns has operated similarly. if yamamoto passes it wouldnt shock me if the mets reinvest the 300m almost immediately on some combo of yelich, montgomery, giolito, imanaga, or continue with a slower approach targeting players on 1 year deals.
I may be hanging on to the smallest nuggets but the visits to Japan and Yamamoto coming to Steve's home gives me hope.
marte is projected at 1.2 fwar next year, makes 19.5m.
yelich is projected at 2.7 fwar next year, makes $26m (4m deferred)
so an even swap of yelich and marte is effectively 1.5 fwar to save 6.5m the next 2 years, plus the extra $78m on top in the final 3 years
unless milwaukee found some kind of amazing appreciation for crow since the rule 5, yesterdays trade is a pretty big clue re how hard it is to move money right now on the trade market.
Conversation
Brendan Kuty 🧟♂️
@BrendanKutyNJ
The Yankees gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto his own No. 18 jersey when they met w/ him.
"I gave him that jersey," Aaron Boone said. "It's his if he wants to keep it."
Obvious candidates to be removed are Bickford, Garrett, Short, Heineman,SRF, less so but still possible Josh Walker, Cooper Hummel so they have plenty of room to operate if they need to.
I may be hanging on to the smallest nuggets but the visits to Japan and Yamamoto coming to Steve's home gives me hope.
it's possible, last year senga was sort of similar with not a lot leaking out. it may be how wolfe prefers to operate. i would say the fact that very little has come out re lad/nyy/nym offers would indicate that wolfe at least in this situation isnt looking to drive the bidding in public.
Conversation
Brendan Kuty 🧟♂️
@BrendanKutyNJ
The Yankees gave Yoshinobu Yamamoto his own No. 18 jersey when they met w/ him.
"I gave him that jersey," Aaron Boone said. "It's his if he wants to keep it."
Would this be equivalent to 1986 Shea Stadium scoreboard? Come on Roger Clemens, shave your beard!
There are "plenty of big offers" in for Yamamoto, reports SNY's Andy Martino, who notes that the Japanese ace's suitors are still in waiting mode.
Per Martino, there have been no signs of significant progress toward a deal yet.
As far as the "industry perception," Martino says it remains unchanged, with the Yankees and Dodgers in "good shape" and the Mets having a shot.
Speaking at a charity event on Thursday, Yankees manager Aaron Boone told reporters that the team utilized Hideki Matsui during its pitch to Yamamoto, but didn't specify how.
In addition to the Yanks, Dodgers, and Mets, the Red Sox, Giants, Phillies, and Blue Jays have all been heavily linked to Yamamoto.
Yamamoto has until Jan. 4 to sign with a new team.
@jaseidler
I don't really know why this is a discussion but Yamamoto would for me pretty clearly be the top overall prospect if we were considering him a prospect for some reason
@TalkinYanks
Yoshinobu Yamamoto asked Aaron Boone about the Yankees' rivalries, per @BryanHoch
Boone told Yamamoto about Yankee Stadium during playoff games and games against the Astros and Red Sox, which "seemed to light him up a bit"
deadlines usually spur action, but if he's still torn/undecided it's also an easy one for him to say "you know what im going to take the weekend and decide after the holidays".
i would hope/think the mets went very aggressive with their offer knowing they had no guarantee of getting another shot. their best card was offering some kind of package that made him the highest paid pitcher ever even if the AAV was below cole.
@jaseidler
I don't really know why this is a discussion but Yamamoto would for me pretty clearly be the top overall prospect if we were considering him a prospect for some reason
in some ways this a big piece of the bidding on him people kind of miss.
like imagine george kirby was a free agent right now. or bobby miller. their markets would be similarly insane beyond snell because of the age/upside.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
Quote:
Stevie should show him the VHS "1986 Mets" video and "Once Upon a Time in Queens" and see if that'll light him up. I also hope the agent - who I know shares clients on both the Yankees and Mets can advise Yamamoto on our fan base and how great Queens can be in a playoff run. He could be part of sustained success. Of course Cohen's willingness to build a winner.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
I obviously meant agent not GM lol
Thank you Dan. In all seriousness you are right. Although I believe our roster is actually underrated. At least on the offensive side.
So we need to sell Yamamoto as the leader, and a key piece of the solution rather than joining a team where he is second or third to other players.
He would be our unquestioned ace. Eh I guess I am just trying to be hopeful.
Quote:
Stevie should show him the VHS "1986 Mets" video and "Once Upon a Time in Queens" and see if that'll light him up. I also hope the agent - who I know shares clients on both the Yankees and Mets can advise Yamamoto on our fan base and how great Queens can be in a playoff run. He could be part of sustained success. Of course Cohen's willingness to build a winner.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
i think the met pitch would be pretty simple:
you are our guy, we are offering to make you the highest paid P ever, and if someone else is willing to match that we will offer more because cohen is the richest owner in the sport.
david stearns is our gm, we just made him the highest paid gm ever (if not highest, very close, rumor was $50m).
you will play in the biggest market, wont be overshadowed in your own rotation by cole or ohtani, but will join a rotation with someone who just successfully made the same transition.
the yankees are the yankees but they have an older roster. how much can you trust hal to keep spending? or not to fire cashman if they miss the playoffs or early exit again?
lad are a tougher argument if they pay up. if he wants to win that is the choice. i think lad have a lot more to offer than either ny team on the field. but they are also typically pretty disciplined with $.
The Brewers are among the teams facing a loss of revenue because of the bankruptcy of Diamond Sports Group, which held the broadcast rights to 14 teams. Those projected losses have caused many teams to tighten their belts (though the Players Association would argue that the belt tightening is unnecessary).
The Brewers, Mariners and Rays are among the teams openly cutting payroll for next season. Knowing that -- and knowing the players themselves from his time running the Brewers -- Stearns swooped in and made a highly favorable baseball trade.
The Mets and David Stearns flexed their big market muscle this week The Mets swooped in and made a highly favorable baseball trade - ( New Window )
If they end up getting Yamamoto, I wonder if it's all-in again and we're ending up with a $400M payroll pre-Cohen tax.
Quote:
In comment 16331117 Drewcon40 said:
Quote:
Stevie should show him the VHS "1986 Mets" video and "Once Upon a Time in Queens" and see if that'll light him up. I also hope the agent - who I know shares clients on both the Yankees and Mets can advise Yamamoto on our fan base and how great Queens can be in a playoff run. He could be part of sustained success. Of course Cohen's willingness to build a winner.
Wolfe is a very well respected GM. Obviously the current roster doesn't match some of the other teams bidding (Dodgers in particular) but they also all don't have an owner who is worth 20 billion and pretty clearly is open to spending big.
i think the met pitch would be pretty simple:
you are our guy, we are offering to make you the highest paid P ever, and if someone else is willing to match that we will offer more because cohen is the richest owner in the sport.
david stearns is our gm, we just made him the highest paid gm ever (if not highest, very close, rumor was $50m).
you will play in the biggest market, wont be overshadowed in your own rotation by cole or ohtani, but will join a rotation with someone who just successfully made the same transition.
the yankees are the yankees but they have an older roster. how much can you trust hal to keep spending? or not to fire cashman if they miss the playoffs or early exit again?
lad are a tougher argument if they pay up. if he wants to win that is the choice. i think lad have a lot more to offer than either ny team on the field. but they are also typically pretty disciplined with $.
The argument against LAD is how long is their window realistically open and do you want to sign a long-term deal with an aging team? Betts is 31, Freeman is 34, Kershaw is 35, Muncy is 33.
You play up the young players, upcoming talent, and Cohen's capacity to add and vision for the team, that the future long-term success and championship window is more sustainable and longer.
im for whatever gets the offseason moving. hope the mets get him but get busy living or get busy dying. no benefit to it dragging out.
Lindor is 30
Senga 31
Nimmo 31
Alonso 29
McNeil 32
Obviously Alvarez is young but the Mets RIGHT NOW do not have a young core in place.
The argument against LAD is how long is their window realistically open and do you want to sign a long-term deal with an aging team? Betts is 31, Freeman is 34, Kershaw is 35, Muncy is 33.
You play up the young players, upcoming talent, and Cohen's capacity to add and vision for the team, that the future long-term success and championship window is more sustainable and longer.
of the 3 biggest $ teams betts and ohtani are as young as any of the "mvp" level core players. ohtani the only one under contract beyond 1 year under 30. bobby miller the youngest top of rotation sp. just added glasnow. consistently good farm. win 100+ every year. friedman presence secure by the ohtani contract.
relative to the nyy core they are meaningfully younger (not counting soto since he's only under contract 1 year).
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
Can confirm that Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are expected to be at the Rams game tonight, for whatever it’s worth
Happy hot stove szn
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
One more detail: They are expected to both be in the owner's suite
torres and soto both in walk years.
ohtani at 29 under contract for a decade, betts under contract at 31 for 9 more years, and obviously a legitimate top rotation arm like miller/glasnow each there through 2030 are core pieces who could all be in-prime for the first half of yamamoto's contract.
under contract yankees have judge same age as betts + cole 2 years older.
dont think volpe and his 208 batting average is a guy who influences a decision like this any more than alvarez or baty (or lux or outman or smith or sheehan, which if weighed would again tip heavily LAD).
i agree i wasnt arguing the mets were. my argument was just that young core (and pretty much any other baseball priority) tips LAD.
ive said for a month they were the bigger threat, which is why the nyy "confidence" has always seemed faux to me.
the only reasons yamamoto wouldnt choose LAD would be if they decide the $ is too high and/or if he doesnt want to play with ohtani - which are 2 things nobody can honestly anticipate even now.
if you are the mets, either you are already actively in negotiations and viewing this as part of the bidding process to keep leveraging a higher price. or you are out of the loop, just found out on twitter he's going to the game tonight, and you are calling wolfe instantly and asking "are we still in this?"
because if not you are obviously moving on to whatever plan B is. the process taking longer doesnt make him any more likely to choose the mets.
id imagine this report will spur some counter reporting since now every writer is texting their mets, yankees, wolfe contacts asking where things stand, and with this getting out all sides will be more likely to leak out things that fit their narrative.
This is why I'm sick of the charade even if it's not all his doing.
@ByJackHarris
Welp, being told now that Yoshinobu Yamamoto IS NOT going to be at the Rams game tonight
The Rams were expecting him to be there, but plans apparently changed
it's been about 2 days since the bidding "intensified" and earlier martino reported the mets have made a "substantial offer", so i think the negotiation is playing out right now and the question is still when yamamoto decides.
If it was a local team, then there'd be a headline.
@Bnicklaus7
Have heard similar that this is a possibility. Per source, both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto are on the celebrity list for the Rams game tonight at SoFi Stadium. We’ll see if they end up being there after all.
Daniel Starkand
@DStarkand
Just heard there's a possibility both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be at SoFi Stadium for tonight's #Rams game against the Saints.
Bring the noise if so, #Dodgers fans.
Jack Harris confirmed those reports, probably after asking a Rams PR staffer who had no idea what they were confirming and is now getting reamed t f out.
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
One more detail: They are expected to both be in the owner's suite
so he felt comfortable adding more information he somehow "got".
@noahcamras
It appears Yoshinobu Yamamoto will not be going to the Rams game now. Maybe we scared him off
Jack Harris
@ByJackHarris
One more detail: They are expected to both be in the owner's suite
so he felt comfortable adding more information he somehow "got".
Jack Harris "Hi just calling to confirm something, I heard Ohtani and Yamamoto are on the list to attend tonights game"
Unsuspecting PR intern "Hi Jack, yes they are right here on the list for owner's box"
Joel Wolfe 10 minutes later looking down to see missed calls from cashman, stearns, cohen, dombrowski, friedman "um what did i miss?"
yamamoto's translator "私は何を取りこぼしたか"
hal steinbrenner "oh thank god i dont need to write that check"
This is my pick of post of the day.
Quote:
yamamoto's translator "私は何を取りこぼしたか"
This is my pick of post of the day.
this is a pretty good contender too:
Kenneth Glantz
@KMcAwsome
My sources have informed me that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is attending a Trans-Siberian Orchestra concert tonight in Wilkes-Barre, PA.
Paul O'Neill
He landed a position at Leber-Krebs Inc., the management company that launched the careers of Aerosmith, AC/DC, Def Leppard, Ted Nugent, New York Dolls, Scorpions, Joan Jett and others. Specifically, he worked as the personal assistant of manager David Krebs.[6][7][8] In the 1980s, O'Neill became a large rock promoter in Japan, promoting every tour of Madonna and Sting in that decade, as well the largest rock festivals in Japan at the time, with such acts as Foreigner, Bon Jovi, Whitesnake, and Ronnie James Dio.[9]
Paul O'Neill managed and produced rock bands including Aerosmith, Humble Pie, AC/DC, Joan Jett, and Scorpions,
Both Billboard Magazine and Pollstar have ranked them as one of the top twenty-five ticket-selling bands in the first decade of the new millennium.[8][9] Their path to success was unusual in that, according to O'Neill, TSO is the first major rock band to go straight to theaters and arenas, having never played at a club, never having an opening act and never being an opening act.[10]
@jphoornstra
Per a source, Shohei Ohtani's camp invited Yoshinobu Yamamoto to attend the Rams game tonight at SoFi. That's how both players wound up on the "celebrity guest list" for the game. But Yamamoto can't make it. An effort was made.
@martinonyc
·
5m
The Mets have not been told they’re out
Alex Pavlovic
@PavlovicNBCS
The Giants have been told they’re out of the bidding for Yoshinobu Yamamoto, per source familiar with discussions. They pushed hard but expectation is that he will end up in LA or NY.
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
3m
Mets still hanging in there with perceived frontrunners Dodgers and Yankees.
“Hearing from very reliable sources that Yamamoto to the Yankees is done. 9 years $326 million. Being told Godzilla Matsui helped push it over the goal line.
Yoshi keeps the #18 jersey.”
@JonHeyman
·
20m
Yankees have made a significant bid on Yamamoto, but at this point they haven’t heard, one way or the other
With Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes nearing conclusion, Dodgers and Yankees in strong position The Mets had not been told they were not officially out - ( New Window )
To its, done he’s a Yankee
To???
To its, done he’s a Yankee
To???
"cant believe a guy who has never thrown an mlb pitch is the highest paid pitcher ever"
(evergreen response from fans of every team that doesnt get him)
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
3m
Mets still hanging in there with perceived frontrunners Dodgers and Yankees.
Yeah if we ever hear "Mets are out of it" it's because it's over and decided... They would never throw that threat away..
My gut hasn't changed since a month ago..I think the Mets miss on him and don't have any big ticket moves this offseason. Maybe just a middle of rotation starter to fill out the team... Just don't see anything big happening.
@hgomez27
Hearing $350M plus.
Quote
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
39m
Bidding on Yamamoto is at $300M plus. Yankees, Dodgers and Mets seen as having the best chance and someone named the Phillies as a potential dark horse.
Ben Nicholson-Smith
@bnicholsonsmith
·
16m
#BlueJays are not expected to land Yamamoto, with NYY, NYM & LAD seen by some as leaders here
if he wants to win its lad,
if he wants $ you would think it's cohen,
if he wants some combination of those things plus pinstripes then nyy.
the extent of the ohtani deferals make this one a little tough to take. i knew they'd go big if they didnt get ohtani, i didnt expect them to get ohtani and all his revenue without having to pay him for 10 years.
that is a scary franchise that will hopefully continue to find ways to suck in the playoffs, but next year yikes. ohtani, yamamoto, miller, glasnow, may...
Ken Rosenthal
@Ken_Rosenthal
·
Source confirms: Dodgers close on Yoshinobu Yamamato. First:
@JackCurryYES
, who reported contract will be for more than $300M.
Quote:
Per Jack Curry
the extent of the ohtani deferals make this one a little tough to take. i knew they'd go big if they didnt get ohtani, i didnt expect them to get ohtani and all his revenue without having to pay him for 10 years.
that is a scary franchise that will hopefully continue to find ways to suck in the playoffs, but next year yikes. ohtani, yamamoto, miller, glasnow, may...
Ohtani not in rotation next year. Buehler will be back though. Maybe Sheehan unless they pen him.
@martinonyc
·
Sources: The Mets offered $325 million to Yamamoto. The Yankees offered $300 MM
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
Japanese star Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the Los Angeles Dodgers are in agreement on an 12-year, $325 million contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.
All good as long as the Yanks don’t get him. I’m fine with the Mets punting for a year to set themselves up.
i mean if they didnt think he was coming the whole pursuit was pretty silly.
here's my guess - they set the price at $325m, LAD matched it, and in the end increasing their offer insignificantly wouldnt have change that.
so it was either offer something ridiculous or let him go, and they let him go. which is defenseable imo only if they do some good things on a pivot. if they were truly all or nothing on him, they should have been more all and made him turn down $350m.
@WillSammon
·
36s
Before the Dodgers landed him, the Mets presented Yoshinobu Yamamoto with an offer of $325 million for 12 years, which Los Angeles matched, a league sources told
@TheAthletic
.
@martinonyc
was first on dollars from Mets;
@JeffPassan
first with LA terms.
Going in with Senga as the ace isn't ideal but if the Mets hit like they should maybe it will be OK
yep. i get not blowing away the field if you have other stuff to spend on (which is what ive been speculating about since the price ascended $100m beyond snell).
if you view him as a cornerstone once in a generation yada yada yada i dont get it. at that point i think you blow away the field.
but i guess we'll see how they pivot now.
If you are giving Yamamoto an opt out at 5 years, I see no reason not to go for Snell on 6 or 7 years with less down the line risk?
obviously that depends on where the price goes, SF and LAA are supposedly in on Snell now too but if you are giving Yamamoto an opt out in 5 years, then if he lives up to the hype it's a 5 year deal and then a lot more after that (or another bidding war).
Andy Martino
@martinonyc
·
Initial expectation is Mets will not pursue high end starting pitching as a pivot from losing Yamamoto.
A year ago today was when we were all shocked with the Correa deal! Crazy
Maybe the season will be the opposite too and Mets will be a good surprise.
A year ago today was when we were all shocked with the Correa deal! Crazy
Maybe the season will be the opposite too and Mets will be a good surprise.
Maybe last years spending spree was a blessing in disguise. Cohen went for it and spent a stupid amount of money only to have an embarrassment of a season. I think that he’ll always have the ability to spend money, but now be a little smarter about it and “build” a team instead of “buy” a team.
A year ago today was when we were all shocked with the Correa deal! Crazy
Maybe the season will be the opposite too and Mets will be a good surprise.
Scherzer was obviously a huge add psychologically in 2022 but bassitt/canha/marte were all pretty key in their own right, especially when scherzer and jdg were both hurt, and obviously didnt cost anything record setting.
Maybe the durability is a big enough concern to avoid snell but durability is a concern with every pitcher. It was certainly a concern with Wheeler when he hit the market and he's since been one of the most durable in MLB.
no risk it no biscuit.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
in the end that turns out a good thing. the price ended up $25m above the highest projection and more than $120m over the median. so in that respect cohen at least made it a tougher pill to swallow that it could have been.
the mets got scherzer in 2022 because the dodgers beat them for bauer in 2021. the yankees just came up short in the bidding because they have soto. money is real for all these teams, at least the ones whose players dont defer all of it.
certainly i dont think any of us last year expected to be sitting here in a year where max/jv/senga/quintana were supposed to be under contract expecting the offseason to be all in on yamamoto on the biggest SP contract in history. things can change fast.
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
If Soto isn't re-signed was this a disastrous offseason for the yanks?
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
Yeah, literally nobody said that. Lol, but if that made up shit makes you feel better, go for it.
I think I’m still getting reports that the Yankees are the front runners for Yamamoto. Good luck! I hope you get him.
Quote:
In comment 16331527 CooperDash said:
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
Yeah, literally nobody said that. Lol, but if that made up shit makes you feel better, go for it.
I think I’m still getting reports that the Yankees are the front runners for Yamamoto. Good luck! I hope you get him.
All we've heard for 2 years, "Cohen's gonna throw Ohtani a big check he can't turn down!"
He didn't even give the Mets the time of day.
Quote:
In comment 16331527 CooperDash said:
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
If Soto isn't re-signed was this a disastrous offseason for the yanks?
They'll be able to keep now that Yama is a Dodger.
Quote:
In comment 16331535 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
In comment 16331527 CooperDash said:
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
Yeah, literally nobody said that. Lol, but if that made up shit makes you feel better, go for it.
I think I’m still getting reports that the Yankees are the front runners for Yamamoto. Good luck! I hope you get him.
All we've heard for 2 years, "Cohen's gonna throw Ohtani a big check he can't turn down!"
He didn't even give the Mets the time of day.
Lol, sure you did champ👌
Someone finally realizes that the world doesn’t revolve around the NY Yankees. Tough time but I’m confident you’ll learn from this. But probably not, haha.
Quote:
In comment 16331535 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
In comment 16331527 CooperDash said:
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
If Soto isn't re-signed was this a disastrous offseason for the yanks?
They'll be able to keep now that Yama is a Dodger.
Doesn't answer my question
Ohtani was there
Quote:
In comment 16331535 Dave in Hoboken said:
Quote:
In comment 16331527 CooperDash said:
Quote:
In comment 16331518 moespree said:
Quote:
To drive the price up to where he wanted to go all along.
But but but…the pinstripes, the history, the Matsui really pushing, the saved #18 uniform number. Lol
Just like we've hearing for 2 years how the Mets are hot for Ohtani and the Mets are going to get him. B-b-b-but...NO. lol.
Yeah, literally nobody said that. Lol, but if that made up shit makes you feel better, go for it.
I think I’m still getting reports that the Yankees are the front runners for Yamamoto. Good luck! I hope you get him.
All we've heard for 2 years, "Cohen's gonna throw Ohtani a big check he can't turn down!"
He didn't even give the Mets the time of day.
Mets never heavily pursued ohtani. But hey, don’t let facts get in the way of your bullshit.
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
The owners are hypocritical pieces of mierda. Kudos to the Dodgers for trying to spend and win. I'm not a big fan of massive deferrals being allowed, but that's neither here nor there.
Does anyone have any intel on him or if I even have the name right?
But I don't hate them for this. This is how I'd want and expect MLB teams to act.
I just don't want the Mets to feel pressured into moves now to put a competitive (on paper) team on the field.
If nothing else IMO not landing either Ohtani (who it doesn't sound like they even seriously pursued) or Yamamoto should take pressure off Stearns. Just be deliberate, have a plan and build a sustainable winner (i know, so simple).
The Mets have historically had only short-term success and far between successes, no need to be reactionary now and do it again.
I always was of the opinion that the 88 team was better than the 86 team. I loved Dave Cone and Randy Myers. After watching 'Once upon a time in Queens', losing Knight and Mitchell was more impactful than I thought.
pj - to add to your Dodger-dislike. Darryl Strawberry was the probably the first star to leave a team I root for and he went to the Dodgers. His departure, to me, was the end of that team, although Frank Cashen started the deconstruction with the Lenny Dykstra trade or the Mitchell/McReynolds swap.
Tear it all down and wake us up in 2027.
Someone finally realizes that the world doesn’t revolve around the NY Yankees. Tough time but I’m confident you’ll learn from this. But probably not, haha.
Whatever you say; enjoy finishing under .500 again. You too, speedy, :)
Tear it all down and wake us up in 2027.
I'm just being dramatic, so ignore my post. Bummed to wake up at the news though.
Quote:
given his networth, he could've easily tried to make a winning bid. Citi Field is going to be a ghost town this summer. Might as well sell off Diaz, Alonso, Nimmo, etc. since they clearly arent trying to build a contender in their window.
Tear it all down and wake us up in 2027.
I'm just being dramatic, so ignore my post. Bummed to wake up at the news though.
Metnut - coming from another recent drama-king, no worries. I actually feel now a weight off the Mets shoulders. It's going to take awhile to get the Mets brand up and this is just a blip. pjcas, Eric from LI (among others) actually posted some logical thoughts if we (eventually did) miss out on Yamamoto. I love my fellow Jet hater Dave but I'm actually feeling pretty good as I think we are going to work on the depth of this team and make our splash in the coming years.
i havent seen anything indicate that mets were given a chance to increase their bid further, it may have been everyone put in their highest bids blindly and yamamoto just took the high one to the team he most preferred who matched and it was game over.
here's a crazy stat:
@jphoornstra
Highest-paid MLB teammates, ranked by actual contract value:
1. Ohtani/Betts $825,814,765
2. Ohtani/Yamamoto $785,814,765
3t. Betts/Yamamoto $690,000,000
3t. Machado/Tatis $690,000,000
credit to the LAD, they have gone pretty all in and landed the 2 biggest unicorn FAs in a long time. the only hole that can be poked in their offseason is that 2 of the 3 pitchers they've given more than $600m to have had numerous arm issues.
only silver lining to any of this for mets is that i think it clarifies needing to have $700m+ squirreled away for soto and alonso next year.
i think the plan should still be the same and i still think a bigger tactical mistake than missing yamamoto may have been not pursuing soto aggressively - id buy as much quality pitching depth as you can afford (and yes snell or montgomery should be considered, maybe even hader if he were open to it), and keep a place warm in RF for a $500m+ offer on soto next offseason.
Eric on Li : mute : 11/22/2023 1:07 pm : link
with your hypothesis about starting pitchers. I am all for getting the best starting pitching you can, but more and more starting pitching isnt the building block it used to be.
The Rangers won a WS not because they signed JDG or traded for Scherzer, but because they built SP depth that they needed when both those guys got hurt. And more importantly because they aggressively signed Corey Seager (despite the QO) who had a postseason for the ages. 12 rbis and 18 runs scored in 17 games while walking more than K'ing.
the chance to get MVP-level middle order hitters with 5-10 years of prime seasons doesn't come around often. The dodgers got betts and won a WS. Mets got Lindor and he's been key to them spending so much time in first place the prior 2 years. Rangers got Seager. Philly got Harper/JTR/Trea. Atlanta got Olsen. Yelich has similarly helped carry the Brewers over the last half decade.
Soto is younger and an arguably better offensive player than all of them because of the walk/k profile. The only argument against pursuing him aggressively is if you can get Ohtani.
Go for Soto aggressively then sign the best quality pitching depth you can find throughout the entire staff. If yamamoto wants in too great but if it's montgomery/imanaga/lugo/flaherty types that's ok too.
yelich is 32 years old but someone id seriously consider, especially if it means you can move marte's contract. he is still an excellent hitter with elite bat speed. still a plus defender. the type of player who should age well. luxury tax salary is just under 24m per year for 5 more years, 3 of which he will be younger than marte is today so worst case scenario you find yourself in 3 years in the same position with yelich as you are with marte today, just delayed.
w/ Soto he will obviously be looking to break the highest total value record and probably be first to cross the $500m threshold. with burnes a good year and he may be looking to break the yamamoto deal.
but this year there is a lot of talent still on the board that he represents and stearns getting some reps in getting deals done with him is probably a good idea for future relations.
Boras’ free agents are not without warts, but in a market thin on talent, he is well-positioned to exploit some of the Ohtani and/or Yamamoto losers, most notably the Giants and Red Sox. The Giants already have signed one of his clients, outfielder Jung Hoo Lee, to a six-year, $113 million deal that many in the industry considered an overpay.
Boras’ remaining free agents also include designated hitter J.D. Martinez, righty Frankie Montas and lefties Hyun-Jin Ryu, Sean Manaea and James Paxton.
Rosenthal: Thoughts on Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Dodgers deal and where the market goes now - ( New Window )
DOWN WITH SHECKY ;)
The source added the Mets may not have gone much higher anyway given the posting fee that pushed the total outlay to about $375 million.
Following a report that Yamamoto – who was also heavily pursued by the Yankees, Giants, Red Sox and Phillies, among others – grew up rooting for the Dodgers, Cohen joked he was going to scour Japan for players that are Mets fans.
“We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week,” Cohen said. “I think there’s a couple of ways to build a team.”
The 25-year-old Yamamoto was the team’s white whale, but Cohen said he’s undeterred in retooling the Mets.
“Last I looked, there’s never one player that is going to make or break your team,” Cohen said. “We’ll build it. It will happen. Slowly and surely you will see changes and improvements. We have got the right management in place with a shared vision.”
Steve Cohen: Mets ‘left it all on the field’ in failed Yoshinobu Yamamoto pursuit - ( New Window )
DOWN WITH SHECKY ;)
Kinda weird victory lap on Lee when he got WAY more money than anybody anticipated.
They also love Scott
"I'd personally be stunned if they trade Alonso this off-season. Teams have called, zero traction"
"Michael A. Taylor is looking for a starting job and multiple years. The Mets were open to giving him a semi-regular role, were less open to multiple seasons"
Quote:
Poor little fella
Someone finally realizes that the world doesn’t revolve around the NY Yankees. Tough time but I’m confident you’ll learn from this. But probably not, haha.
Whatever you say; enjoy finishing under .500 again. You too, speedy, :)
We'll see. You're probably right. But once AGAIN you show yourself to be an little insecure pussy yankee fan who feels the need to come onto a Mets thread and talk shit. Sounds like someone has nothing better to do....
@jeffpaternostro
·
53s
I skipped Christian Scott because I haven’t had coffee yet. If you want to point to Mets pitching dev going in the right direction they took a Day 2 SEC reliever, fixed his fastball shape, bumped his command, got him an above-average change and now he’s a potential third starter
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
12m
I’ve come around on Williams over Gilbert (have been worn down by Jarrett), but I do think Gilbert’s overall line is knocked down by playing through an injury midseason and I’m not convinced Jett is an out and out better hitter given his extreme passivity.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
11m
Gilbert is the much more stable offensive and defensive profile, Jett clearly has more upside. They will be within ten spots of each other on the 101.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
4m
Jeremy Rodriguez is likely going to be the highest ranked IFA from the 2023 class on our list. He’s Marco Vargas from last year with more defense and power potential.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
1m
Houck was not very good after the draft. I don’t know how much any of us should care about that, but it was not very good in specifically concerning ways. Mike Vasil made some nice consolidation games this season, but I don’t know if he has a true out pitch.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
9m
Blade Tidwell would have been a 101 guy ten years ago but we know more about fastballs now. Kevin Parada was a 101 guy last year but his swing is a mess and while defensive reports were better later in the year he’s not a sure thing at catcher at all.
Jeffrey Paternostro
@jeffpaternostro
·
9m
I like Jacob Reimer but he didn’t hit the ball as hard as you’d think and he’s a first baseman. I cannot believe I had to rank Jose Butto. And now we get to the part of the list where I say the system is still shallow but they could have some 2023 draft breakouts next year
does not believe
@mets
will chase Snell/Montgomery or Imanaga
Nope. While it’s possible Cohen grows restless and orders a pursuit of one of the next-best starters on the open market, that doesn’t appear to be New York’s plan. (And Cohen hardly sounded restless Friday in a New York Post interview, saying, “We’re going to be thoughtful and not impulsive and thinking about sustainability over the intermediate long-term, but not focused on winning the headlines over the next week.”)
For those reasons, you can probably count out courtships of Snell, Montgomery and even Shōta Imanaga, three pitchers on the wrong side of 30 who can seek long-term contracts of five years or more. If the market for one of those two pitchers craters, things could change, but a marketplace that just engineered more than $1 billion in contracts for Ohtani and Yamamoto probably won’t be sinking anytime soon.
for 2024 they have 2/5 (or 6) spots open right now.
for 2025 they have 4/5 (or 6) spots open right now.
for 2026 they have 5/5 (or 6) spots open right now.
in the next 3 seasons they need to acquire 11 years worth of SP. an injury to senga, of which they were afraid enough that they put protections in his contract for tjs, could knock out the better part of the 1 player under contract for 2024/2025.
Signing all 1-2 year deals is going to make it a bit of an endeavor to fill all 11 spots.
Out of Snell, Montgomery, Giolito, Imanaga I think they would be stupid to not go multi-year on at least 1 guy to fill 3/11 open spots for the next 3 seasons.
How can the Mets fill out a rotation without Yoshinobu Yamamoto? - ( New Window )
For example, the Mets’ dinner with Yamamoto was believed to have gone well because they were prepared and the Cohens were active, attentive hosts. Yamamoto, his agent Joel Wolfe and five other associates, including Yamamoto’s best friend, attended the dinner with Mets manager Carlos Mendoza, pitching coach Jeremy Hefner, Stearns and the Cohens. When someone needed to know where a bathroom was, it was Alex or Steve who personally guided the person. The Cohens cared about things like who was seated where at the table.
Mainly, the Mets listened to what Yamamoto wanted. They were advised not to present data because Yamamoto isn’t deeply into analytics, so they engaged in a sophisticated philosophical conversation about Yamamoto’s stuff. When Yamamoto stressed winning and his training, the Mets responded with their plan to compete annually for the playoffs with the goal of winning a World Series and touted personalization within their strength and conditioning group.
They were advised not to bring up Kodai Senga unless Yamamoto asked first because even though they both come from Japan, they are two different pitchers. Quickly into the dinner, Yamamoto posed his first question. It was about Senga. The Mets answered thoroughly about Senga’s transition. The Mets heard that Yamamoto was quiet, reserved and that maybe he wouldn’t ask much. With the Mets, he was talkative and asked approximately 10 questions.
The Mets seemingly played their cards well. In theory, their process should aid them in the future. It’s just the Dodgers always held the winning hand.
his poker analogy is apt. no matter what cards you are never guaranteed a win (or loss) on pretty much any hand. to win you have to be in and play the game, and whatever hand you are dealt you play it the best you can. they made an aggressive offer, ill bet they wish it was slightly more aggressive given that they never got a chance to increase it but my guess is LAD was matching whatever it was.
Mets failed to woo Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but their methods could work in the future - ( New Window )
From burbank too.
If the dodgers spend on anyone else that isnt hader idk what they are doing.
Link - ( New Window )
this is another reason why they may want to not let the chance to sign a CY level pitcher if one is there for the taking.
signing any quality pitcher is going to be competitive. giolito, imanaga, next year burnes, bieber, fried all included. LAD arent going anywhere, BOS, SFG, NYY, etc. if you are all in on 1 guy per offseason you are going to have a lot of offseasons signing 0 guys.
the hand they have to play right now with pitching is a bad one since they havent developed any arms since the 5 aces. people may look at the scherzer/jv signings and say "well a bad hand forced bad moves" but id argue those werent bad moves at all. in 2022 they won 100 games and thanks to those guys they added 3 of their top 4 prospects at the deadline.
in fact 5 of their top 7 prospects on that list were added thanks to free agents over the age of 35 signed last offseason or ahead of 2022. imagine what that list looks like if they sat out those free agent classes?
Link - ( New Window )
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
I would expect MLB will do something to rein in the deferred money route, no way should LAD be able to spread the amount out over years Ohtani won’t be playing. If this off season shows us anything, it’s that Cohen isn’t driving the process as much as we thought he was. At least in this instance, he seems to be deferring to Stearn.
Mark Feinsand
Verified
@Feinsand
·
22s
The Tigers have signed RHP Shelby Miller to a one-year, $3 million contract with a $4.25 million club option for 2025 ($250,000 buyout). Performance bonus information below:
Quote:
Now I really loathe them.
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
I would expect MLB will do something to rein in the deferred money route, no way should LAD be able to spread the amount out over years Ohtani won’t be playing. If this off season shows us anything, it’s that Cohen isn’t driving the process as much as we thought he was. At least in this instance, he seems to be deferring to Stearn.
Some limit on a percentage of the overall value of the contract you can defer makes a lot of sense. This is a parity issue. You have one of the top 3 richest teams in baseball deferring 97% of a contract, it's terrible for the game. I don't blame the Dodgers, they exploited the situation and it's legal. But it probably shouldn't be.
The question is does capping it after the Dodgers already did this hurt smaller market teams more than it helps them?
Quote:
In comment 16331559 allstarjim said:
Quote:
Now I really loathe them.
Since the owners re-wrote the rule book to penalize Cohen for being so rich, are they now going to penalize the Dodgers for building a super-team on the back of deferring a historic amount of money for Ohtani?
I'm still bullish on this Mets team because of the youth that's already in and approaching the majors. But they definitely need to uncover some pitching studs.
I would expect MLB will do something to rein in the deferred money route, no way should LAD be able to spread the amount out over years Ohtani won’t be playing. If this off season shows us anything, it’s that Cohen isn’t driving the process as much as we thought he was. At least in this instance, he seems to be deferring to Stearn.
Some limit on a percentage of the overall value of the contract you can defer makes a lot of sense. This is a parity issue. You have one of the top 3 richest teams in baseball deferring 97% of a contract, it's terrible for the game. I don't blame the Dodgers, they exploited the situation and it's legal. But it probably shouldn't be.
The question is does capping it after the Dodgers already did this hurt smaller market teams more than it helps them?
That’s exactly my take too, Jim. As with Cohen and his spending last year, he was exploiting a lax system. Any deferred money, 100%, should be averaged into the length of the players agreement. The NFL and NBA would never have allowed shenanigans like this.
Can't cry sour grapes now that some else does it.
You should not be able to defer the cash payment and have it effect the AAV of the contract for luxury tax purposes. that is using a loophole to get around a soft cap.
Even if the Mets do it, it shouldn't be allowed. and if any "loophole" gets closed it will be that one.
it's like when brady took less in NE, yes it's a major advantage but if players are willing to take less $ because they want to win what can you do?
if alonso said he'd resign for league minimum x 10 years tomorrow would anyone stand in the way of that?
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Lol. Ftd helps banks work
No piece makes more sense and their qo penalty is less significant since they were under tax and already signed ohtani. No info and hopefully they don’t get him but it fits too good. Not even sure it’s worth getting info on them any more it’s usually just bad news.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
Quote:
market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
That's a good way of explaining it.
$2m salary out per year year = $12m
$10-20m in additional off field revenue per year = $60-120m
(+48-112m cash)
this year alone yamamoto is going to cost LAD somewhere around $120m cash (50m SB + 50m posting fee + salary).
I think through 6 years he will have cost more than $220m cash, plus whatever luxury tax they incur on top, and if it goes well he's almost certain to opt out at that 6th year and sign an even bigger deal.
ohtani allowing the LAD to recoup up to half of that cash was the key assist. especially compared to the $46m x 6 a typical contract would have cost them (which would have been another -150m cash out after netting out his extra off field revenue).
smart payroll planning by LAD before this offseason and ohtani putting his $ where his mouth is made this a very unique gamble. those $68m cash payments after ohtani's gone could be crippling depending on the state of the team/ownership, but it's a decade away. somewhere the wilponzis are smiling.
I would argue the latter, and would hope that the MLB owners step in to promote some rule changes that limit the percentage amount of a contract that can be deferred, perhaps with some cap on # of years this can be allowed.
Again, I don't think this is an issue of sour grapes. I've stated that I don't blame the Dodgers for exploiting this situation to maximum effect. But given the historic nature of this deal, and the competitive balance implications it has when one of the richest teams in baseball can do this to this magnitude, does this provide an impetus for baseball to put some limits on this kind of fiscal imbalance?
This argument would seemingly be at the detriment to an owner like Cohen, but is probably better for the game overall to do something.
It's a loan. It's debt on their balance sheet.
Literally nothing to see here, nothing to be upset about, nothing to ban or regulate.
Quote:
market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
My issue is not with deferred compensation. It is with deferred compensation being used to lower the CBT payroll of the player.
Ohtani contract is 10 year 700M. Meaning he is contracted to play for the Dodgers the next 10 years and he will be paid 700M. People saying it's not really a 10 year 700M contract are being disingenuous or have an agenda. Sure, that may not be how he gets the $700M paid (over 10 years) but he is being paid $700M (guaranteed) for 10 years of playing time and it is absolutely how his contract is recorded. His CBT payroll figure for them should be 70M. Not the present value number of $46M.
The Mets did this with Diaz and teams do it all the time, and to me lowering the CBT payroll amount to the present value doesn't "penalize" the team enough for offering such a large contract.
Quote:
In comment 16332024 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
It doesn't matter what they report. Reporters don't understand finance.
The "deferral" is not free.
Would the deferred money on Ohtani be taxed later on? Obviously Bonilla and I also think Saberhagen still gets deferred money but the Mets aren’t taxed (unless that was considered grandfathered in).
against the CBT the contract counts $46m per year over 10 years -- which is almost exactly what Ohtani was proejcted to be worth. so this is not cap circumvention or a loophole.
it is simply good fortune for the team that a great player was willing to wait 10 years to collect 97% of his contract, allowing the team to spend more aggressively in those years. ohtani put his money where his mouth is and did something very few (if any others) would do.
Would the deferred money on Ohtani be taxed later on? Obviously Bonilla and I also think Saberhagen still gets deferred money but the Mets aren’t taxed (unless that was considered grandfathered in).
the mlb system estimates the present day value of the deferrals and just adjusts the "cap hits" evenly over the life of the deal based on that.
using the diaz example:
he got 5 years 102m, with 1x12m signing bonus, 5x17m annual salaries, and 26.5m deferred until 2033-2042.
that turned a 5 year 102 (20.4m average)
into a 5 year 18.6m average for his CBT salaries.
so the mets saved themselves 2m a year that doesnt get taxed. last year alone that saved them like 2.2m in penalties they would have had to pay.
that is how most normal deferals go. scherzer did it with the nats, lindor has 50m deferred, etc. usually it is some chunk of money way less than half. 10-20-30% deferred, slightly lower cash burden on team in present day.
97% of the money deferred for 10 years is the choice ohtani made that was never done before. even if you value the contract at $460m the way the CBT does, deferring $440m of it would have been 95.65%.
he basically said give me the biggest deal in mlb history and you dont need to pay me until next decade so you can spend more on the team while im here.
or using moze's analogy which is a good one, you can live in the most expensive house in the world for 10 years before you start paying for it.
Quote:
In comment 16332065 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 16332024 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
It doesn't matter what they report. Reporters don't understand finance.
The "deferral" is not free.
Sorry if I'm being obtuse and the last thing on this but if they're paying Ohtani without interest it was a free deferral no? It's not to say about time value of money and if Dodgers themselves will put away and make interest but Ohtani won't be getting it.
Great point
Anyone got the deets on the Wendle contract so we can analyze it?
Just effin with ya. Perhaps you don't remember the old threads, where discussing finance is boring in comparison lol
Cohen has shown he is willing to invest so any comparable to the Wilpon-owned Mets were false. We need to build up the Mets as a brand and destination where free agents want to come and can win. I think we are in good hands with Stearns.
I wanted Yamamoto as much as anyone but he's a Dodger. Maybe I am going through a denial state but I do think Cohen and Stearns will build a sustainable winner. Were we as good as the 101 win team or as bad as the 75 win team? With the rebuilding of the farm with the trades last year and our existing roster, I do think we are better than what most of experts are predicting. I understand a division title might be a bit unrealistic but things need to playout. I think now we need to work on depth, especially with the pitchers. I think that is fairly obvious. I am excited to see what Stearns can do with this roster. I wasn't initially.
I have a question for you guys. I always preface this so apologies for the redundancy but I suffered a loss during the season and checked out of sports for a bit so I wasn't as informed on the day to day. Ronny Mauricio was a tough break as he was a candidate for Third Base. I know Vientos and Baty are not ideal but are we giving up on them? I can look up the numbers and see the poor averages but what are the thoughts of these guys? Especially Baty who was at once an exciting prospect.
Thanks guys as always for the great discussion and indulging me.
Quote:
In comment 16332161 GF1080 said:
Quote:
In comment 16332065 moze1021 said:
Quote:
In comment 16332024 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
market contract (Brady) is not the same thing as deferring the bulk of a top of the market contract to be fully paid in the future.
again, I have no issue with deferrals, they're fine they really just change when the player gets their cash, but the fact the full amount doesn't count for luxury tax purposes seems wrong.
Ohtani didn't sign a 700M contract... That's just the payments he is getting with interest.
He's just getting the 46M annual contract and loaning it back to the Dodgers, and they are paying it back later with interest.
I don't think this is correct. Unless the reporting from the time the deal was signed has changed they said there is no interest. It's a straight deferral of $68 million a year until after the initial 10 year period. It's valued at $46 million a year for AAC purposes because of the interest rate calculation set up in the CBA.
It doesn't matter what they report. Reporters don't understand finance.
The "deferral" is not free.
Sorry if I'm being obtuse and the last thing on this but if they're paying Ohtani without interest it was a free deferral no? It's not to say about time value of money and if Dodgers themselves will put away and make interest but Ohtani won't be getting it.
It's not without interest...the 700M is with interest (whether spelled out as such or not)
Link - ( New Window )
Mets hit with record $101M luxury tax - ( New Window )
Cohen has shown he is willing to invest so any comparable to the Wilpon-owned Mets were false. We need to build up the Mets as a brand and destination where free agents want to come and can win. I think we are in good hands with Stearns.
I wanted Yamamoto as much as anyone but he's a Dodger. Maybe I am going through a denial state but I do think Cohen and Stearns will build a sustainable winner. Were we as good as the 101 win team or as bad as the 75 win team? With the rebuilding of the farm with the trades last year and our existing roster, I do think we are better than what most of experts are predicting. I understand a division title might be a bit unrealistic but things need to playout. I think now we need to work on depth, especially with the pitchers. I think that is fairly obvious. I am excited to see what Stearns can do with this roster. I wasn't initially.
I have a question for you guys. I always preface this so apologies for the redundancy but I suffered a loss during the season and checked out of sports for a bit so I wasn't as informed on the day to day. Ronny Mauricio was a tough break as he was a candidate for Third Base. I know Vientos and Baty are not ideal but are we giving up on them? I can look up the numbers and see the poor averages but what are the thoughts of these guys? Especially Baty who was at once an exciting prospect.
Thanks guys as always for the great discussion and indulging me.
Definitely not giving up on either player, but Baty is closer to that point. He has good contact rate, they simply have to work on his launch angle, which is really low...his launch angle last year was 6.6 degrees, while the average major leaguer was 12.2. As you might expect, he's hitting far too many ground balls. He actually has good contact and hard hit percentages, he's just hitting it into the ground a lot.
Vientos I have a lot more optimism for. He was abysmal during his first stint before heading back to AAA, remember he was playing sparingly. In August Showalter started playing him more regularly, and in September he was basically in the lineup every day. While results weren't amazing, he started to hit with the increased playing time, 6 of his 9 homers came in September. His overall hitting still needs some work, even in his best month of September a .230/.280 BA/OBP leaves a lot to be desired. But even still, with those numbers weighing him down, he still managed a .739 OPS for September.
His hard hit % and average exit velo numbers are elite. Plate discipline and pitch selection I think is what it's all about for MV, he has to work on very below average walk and K-rates. But based on his superlative success at AAA in multiple stints, I think he has it in him. If he can parlay his September and gain some confidence from that, while cutting down on his K numbers and increasing his contact rate, we'll see an offensive powerhouse.
Very possible with Vientos. It's just disappointing that Buck didn't play him and allow him to develop in May and June like he should've, he could be farther along at this point.
As for Mauricio, we'll just have to be a little patient with him, the good news is he should be back at some point (mid-season maybe, perhaps even mid to end of May?) And he's a lot of fun to watch with the bat in his hand, but the biggest disappointment with his injury is the lost time for him to work on his defense, because he is a negative player in that area.
Really hoping to see Alvarez turn it around from a disappointing late season swoon.
But as we're talking prospects, the thing I'm most excited about for 2024 are the new potential promotions... especially that of Luisangel Acuña and Drew Gilbert.
Acuña should start the year at AAA after a very successful campaign in AA last year, posting a .294/.359/.769 season with 57 SBs against 10 CS.
A big first 3 months in AAA could see him promoted in late June or July, but I may be optimistic.
Drew Gilbert dominated after being traded to the Mets in the Verlander deal. .325/.423/.984 in 154 PAs in Bing. I believe he will also start the year in AAA, so same rules apply...but perhaps he will be a touch slower to the majors than Acuña.
And I don't expect to see Jett Williams in the majors in 2024, but I'll be watching him closely. He was promoted to Bing late in the year but only has 26 PAs at the level. But across 3 levels last year, 45 steals against 7 caught, with a .263/.425/.876 line.
Christian Scott and Mike Vasil are the pitchers to keep an eye on that could be getting close. Hopefully we have 2 good future starters there because we need them.
37 games .243/.317/.304. 5 total extra base hits. Might see him second half if he plays well.
That's more than what nearly a third of the league has in total payroll.
i mean if you want to play with the big teams in FA, finance plays a big part. it may have been boring to note that LAD was like $150m below their previous spending high on payroll, but as things turned out that was a pretty crucial fact that drove this offseason so far.
the yankees drew their line in the sand quicker than mets/dodgers because they were already closest to maxing out their budget.
i and i think most others agree we'd rather be talking about adding players they need. they just havent done that yet and at the moment they've kept speculation pretty tame. i think imanaga has probably been most connected to them of whats left and i could very much see that. his posting closes 1/11 so id imagine his decision is in progress.
i think they were afraid of mets bidding more and leaving $ on the table. he wanted to be a LAD, they matched the biggest contract ever, there wasnt much to gain unless he also preferred going to the mets (which he obviously did not).
what the mets would have offered if they got the chance to raise is interesting, as is whether or not they should have just gone to that number to start. but i think LAD was probably matching up to $350m, so for mets to get him i think it would have had to be a really crazy offer.
I have a question for you guys. I always preface this so apologies for the redundancy but I suffered a loss during the season and checked out of sports for a bit so I wasn't as informed on the day to day. Ronny Mauricio was a tough break as he was a candidate for Third Base. I know Vientos and Baty are not ideal but are we giving up on them? I can look up the numbers and see the poor averages but what are the thoughts of these guys? Especially Baty who was at once an exciting prospect.
Thanks guys as always for the great discussion and indulging me.
all 4 of the kids from last year were mixed bags as they adjusted to big leagues. alvarez seemed like the best by a large margin but that wasn't the case across the board, he hit a lot of homers and that masked some other less than great offense under the hood.
the biggest mistake last year was not giving some of them more consistent playing time earlier on. when vientos and mauricio got to play near every day they produced, and they did it against playoff teams that were fighting for position. it wasnt a typical "september doesnt count".
they need to work hard/earn their roles in ST but it seems clear part of the mets step back this year is knowing they need to find out what they have beyond alvarez.
im not sure which report you're referring to or if ive seen it but it's certainly possible he wanted both of those teams more than the mets, and only would have gone to the mets if they didnt up their spends.
the reports ive seen from martino were that the yankees knew they'd only get him if he was willing to leave $ on the table elsewhere but i doubt they directly communicated that prior. id imagine yamamoto was trying to get either lad or nyy as high as possible.
i think we all knew the only way the mets were winning was by being top $ by a decent margin, which is why i question them not being a little more aggressive than they were.
Quote:
nothing stopped the Yankees from offering 330-340 when given a chance to "match" thus forcing him to leave money on the table. If he only had eyes for LAD and had his 325, why go back to the Yankees at all?
im not sure which report you're referring to or if ive seen it but it's certainly possible he wanted both of those teams more than the mets, and only would have gone to the mets if they didnt up their spends.
the reports ive seen from martino were that the yankees knew they'd only get him if he was willing to leave $ on the table elsewhere but i doubt they directly communicated that prior. id imagine yamamoto was trying to get either lad or nyy as high as possible.
i think we all knew the only way the mets were winning was by being top $ by a decent margin, which is why i question them not being a little more aggressive than they were.
Heyman is reporting the Yankees were given a chance to match but weren't going to pay him more than Cole.
@JonHeyman
Yankees decided not to match Dodgers winning $325M bid to Yamamoto because: 1) they thought $300M was right offer, 2) they didn’t believe anyone should have a bigger deal than Gerrit Cole. NYY offered optout after 5 yrs but not a $50M signing bonus. Highly unlikely it mattered.
No other way to read it than the Yankees were given a shot to up their offer whereas the Mets were not.
Verified
@BaseballAmerica
NEW this year … Baseball America will no longer rank players designated as foreign professionals as prospects.
So, players like Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jung Hoo Lee will not appear on a Top 100 or rank in a team’s Top 30
@JonHeyman
Yankees decided not to match Dodgers winning $325M bid to Yamamoto because: 1) they thought $300M was right offer, 2) they didn’t believe anyone should have a bigger deal than Gerrit Cole. NYY offered optout after 5 yrs but not a $50M signing bonus. Highly unlikely it mattered.
No other way to read it than the Yankees were given a shot to up their offer whereas the Mets were not.
if that's his full report it doesnt technically say they were given a chance to match the contract. it could be read as him reporting their rationale behind why their offer wasnt as big as LADs (who only went to $325m to match the mets). finalists being given a chance to match/raise the highest bids would be totally normal, finalists not being given a chance to raise their bid probably isn't (which is what happened to mets).
This is what martino said:
i think nyy were clearly the team with the most to risk by over-bidding (Soto) and a lot of what we're hearing from them is spin so this doesnt get spun into them "cheaping out". which i dont think they did at all, they just werent in position to be as aggressive as the other 2 teams.
https://www.sny.tv/articles/details-of-yankees-mets-bids-for-yoshinobu-yamamoto-dodgers - ( New Window )
"
Michael Marino
Paid
@MarinoMLB
·
44m
·
Mets weren’t even given the chance to beat the matched Dodgers offer. Shows you who he was actually considering when it was all said and done."
Lance Brozdowski
Paid
@LanceBroz
·
14s
The craziest thing about this is that Senga’s forkball was only in the zone 23%.
That’s the LOWEST zone rate of ANY pitch in baseball (min 200 thrown).
And he put up GOAT-level whiff. Astounding. 🤯
the logical thing among any group of finalists is taking the high offer (mets $325m) and bringing it to the other finalists. lad matched, nyy didnt, and i read heyman's quote (and martinos reporting) as explanations of why the yankees stood on their number. i think reading in more than that is over-reading.
re the mets i think the implication we can take from the fact that they didnt then go back with a chance to up their offer is that he preferred the lad more than he preferred trying to squeeze another 5-10-20m. it was already the richest contract in for an mlb pitcher, that and a destination he preferred were enough for him.
"
Michael Marino
Paid
@MarinoMLB
·
44m
·
Mets weren’t even given the chance to beat the matched Dodgers offer. Shows you who he was actually considering when it was all said and done."
the mets not getting a chance to match has been reported for 2 days, who has disputed that? he obviously preferred LAD > NYM, which at even money would anyone presume differently?
the mets path was obviously by offering the most money and hoping the other teams wouldnt match, as the yankees didnt. and even that wouldnt have guaranteed him choosing the mets. he may have still chosen LAD or NYY at $300m.
Nimmo, Marte, either or those 2, Tyrone Taylor + Stewart is a potentially horrible offensive OF.
Quote:
guy Marino took it the exact same way (quote tweeting Heyman he said=
"
Michael Marino
Paid
@MarinoMLB
·
44m
·
Mets weren’t even given the chance to beat the matched Dodgers offer. Shows you who he was actually considering when it was all said and done."
the mets not getting a chance to match has been reported for 2 days, who has disputed that? he obviously preferred LAD > NYM, which at even money would anyone presume differently?
the mets path was obviously by offering the most money and hoping the other teams wouldnt match, as the yankees didnt. and even that wouldnt have guaranteed him choosing the mets. he may have still chosen LAD or NYY at $300m.
The Yankees being given a chance to match is absolutely new information.
isnt that what we've all been saying since the ohtani contract? that is literally why i asked the question 2 weeks ago "how much is too much?"
remember also his former team gets paid most on the posting fee based on him taking biggest offer. dont think he and his agent arent squeezed even more than usual to make sure they dont leave $ on the table. i think that's probably part of what got lad up to matching the full $325m. who knows maybe the $50m signing bonus was in return for him not shopping the offer further after LAD matched? i havent seen it reported anywhere that the mets had the $50m signing bonus in there (though they should have offered an even bigger one).
Quote:
In comment 16332453 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
guy Marino took it the exact same way (quote tweeting Heyman he said=
"
Michael Marino
Paid
@MarinoMLB
·
44m
·
Mets weren’t even given the chance to beat the matched Dodgers offer. Shows you who he was actually considering when it was all said and done."
the mets not getting a chance to match has been reported for 2 days, who has disputed that? he obviously preferred LAD > NYM, which at even money would anyone presume differently?
the mets path was obviously by offering the most money and hoping the other teams wouldnt match, as the yankees didnt. and even that wouldnt have guaranteed him choosing the mets. he may have still chosen LAD or NYY at $300m.
The Yankees being given a chance to match is absolutely new information.
i think we are talking past each other or misunderstanding something.
are you taking heyman's report to mean that the yankees were given a chance to match the $325m, and had they they would have gotten yamamoto?
i dont take his report to mean anything new that hasn't already been assumed - that the mets offer was communicated to to the yankees just as it was the lad. the lad increased their offer and perhaps added the signing bonus sweetner over the mets. the yankees stood on theirs. i dont think anyone was expecting that he only took the met offer to the dodgers and not the yankees. if that were the case then wouldnt that mean that the mets came in 2nd (which nobody has reported)?
Jeff Passan
Verified
@JeffPassan
·
15m
Left-handed reliever Yuki Matsui and the San Diego Padres are in agreement on a five-year, $28 million contract, sources tell ESPN. Deal is done. It includes opt-outs after the third and fourth years as well as an injury clause that can convert the fifth year into a club option.
To suggest that's not how this reads as that takes some real gymnastics don't you think?
"Yankees *decided not to match* Dodgers winning $325M bid to Yamamoto because:'
He didn't say "The Yankees decided not to offer more than they did" he said "decided not to match the Dodgers winning bid".
To suggest that's not how this reads as that takes some real gymnastics don't you think?
"Yankees *decided not to match* Dodgers winning $325M bid to Yamamoto because:'
He didn't say "The Yankees decided not to offer more than they did" he said "decided not to match the Dodgers winning bid".
dan it's not gymnastics, you are misunderstanding the timing.
mets offered $325m first. that hasnt been disputed anywhere.
yamamoto took NYM offer and gave LAD the chance to match, reported the same everywhere. this is the part you are misinterpreting as new reporting - why wouldn't the yankees have been given the same chance to match as LAD? there is literally no reason other than if yamamoto already eliminated them (which nobody has reported). it makes no sense that he would bring the high offer to 1 finalist he was still considering but not the other. he didnt know yankees were going to stand on their offer, they could have gone to $350m for all he knew.
all of that happened as pre-text to yamamoto's next decision - which was to not go back to the mets and try to get the offer higher again in a new round, which would have been 2 finalists instead of 3. it can obviously be surmised from that that the mets werent his preferred destination.
All of that was consensus reporting nothing to do with heymans tweet for 2 weeks now?
The entire reason the details of the ohtani contract were such a gut punch was bc it eliminated a huge potential constricting factor for lad. I’m on phone so searching is hard but I think it was right after those details came out we speculated that it was almost certain yamamoto would exceed Cole contract, which nobody predicted but happened.
Again that was why for 1-2 weeks I asked “how much is too much?” - I think to get him Mets would have had to go to 375 or 400. Dodgers cbt payroll right now is still lower with Yamamoto than Mets/nyy without him! And that’s not even factoring in the ohtani cash flow savings.
So yes, Mets only chance was way over spending. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t have a shot. Dodgers could have just as easily as Yankees had a breaking point they wouldn’t exceed. Mets would have had to bid higher to find it.
It is also the most money given to a relief pitcher this winter, though the best relievers on the market -- Hader and right-handers Jordan Hicks, Robert Stephenson and Hector Neris -- have yet to sign.
San Diego, with new manager Mike Shildt, came into the winter with significant budget restrictions after spending $255 million on their payroll and being hit with a $39.7 million luxury-tax bill on top of it. The Padres traded star outfielder Juan Soto to the New York Yankees, and before signing Matsui, their opening day 2024 payroll projected to around $148.4 million, according to Baseball Prospectus.
At 5-foot-8, Matsui is far from an imposing presence on the mound, but his fastball sits at 92 mph, runs up to 95 mph and has strong carry from a low arm slot. He also throws a split-fingered fastball and an occasional slider, according to evaluators.
When the Mets were initially looking for the president of baseball operations every day it seem like they had to be some sort of public declaration that the janitor from the Red Sox did not want to interview for the PoBO Mets job.
This is not meant as a disrespectful comment to the Yankees, but it feels like the media is making sure that the Yankees refused YY and it was the Mets that YY “used”.
Cohen food Japan had Yamamoto at his home, so I guess we can continue taking the highroad as an organization and continue building a winner.
soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.
i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.
i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.
When the Mets were initially looking for the president of baseball operations every day it seem like they had to be some sort of public declaration that the janitor from the Red Sox did not want to interview for the PoBO Mets job.
This is not meant as a disrespectful comment to the Yankees, but it feels like the media is making sure that the Yankees refused YY and it was the Mets that YY “used”.
Cohen food Japan had Yamamoto at his home, so I guess we can continue taking the highroad as an organization and continue building a winner.
it's not conspiracy, there are some rational reasons behind your perceptions.
1. cohen is richest owner in mlb and since he came in other teams were afraid of him increasing their costs by bidding players up. that was not unfounded fear. there are owners who did/do want to make things harder on him.
2. the mets are an easy target for media because they have mostly sucked and also done a lot of embarrassing things. not unlike jets, etc. lolmets is an easy song to play from the greatest hits. especially after a year where they spent $400m and didnt make playoffs.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
other than eno (who was the only writer ive seen suggest "400") this is one of the higher predictions for yamamoto and it still feels very low to me. it seems kind of crazy to me the mets wouldn't beat the cole contract at the very least for a player that much younger.
i think the mets plan was to set the bidding ahead of the cole contract because turning down "highest pitcher contract ever" is a very difficult thing to do.
i have a hard time believing they wouldn't have gone up more but maybe they calibrated their bid there to see if yamamoto was serious enough to come back to them? which it turned out he wasnt bc LAD were serious enough about him to match.
i think getting the total comp to $400m (including posting fee) is probably what it would have taken, minimum, to win.
I was just thinking this. I guess they won't re-sign Soto.
Quote:
the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)
I was just thinking this. I guess they won't re-sign Soto.
Big difference...This guy hasn't thrown a pitch yet. Soto is a bonafide superstar who most teams would already pick over Judge.
Quote:
the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)
soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.
i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.
i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.
Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.
You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.
Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.
Quote:
In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)
soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.
i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.
i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.
Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.
You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.
Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.
okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?
the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:
"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance
"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year
supposedly their yamamoto pursuit was in part to start developing relationships to be more involved in the foreign markets.
id imagine another part of it was considering swapping the salary slot they currently have dedicated to wheeler, to a guy 10 years younger, and now they will shift to some kind of reasonable extension with wheeler.
burnes likely gets to FA bc of boras but i think counting on next year as a great FA pitching year already seems shaky. braves extend fried and it basically turns into burnes or bust, and off a good year the line to sign him will be almost as long as yamamotos.
* Australia
all 3 are multiple years younger so it makes sense if the deal length ends up 4 or 5 years instead of 3, but getting a solid #3 who can throw 180+ innings for the next several years behind senga would check a big box if they don't like snell. other than senga bassitt was one of FAs great values last year. i have to think they like how the stuff of at least one of those guys projects forward even if they havent yet come down to a price they like.
Jordan Montgomery 31 / $122.50M x 5.0 ($24.50M)
Shōta Imanaga 30 / $80.00M x 4.0 ($20.00M)
Lucas Giolito 29 / $49.50M x 3.0 ($16.50M)
i think giolito may make most sense taking a 1 year deal (or 2 year with opt out). the other 2 seem likely to get 4 or 5 years.
ironically after all said and done, yamamoto's AAV ended up close to the projections since the deal length got almost twice as long (was originally projected at 7 or 8 years).
Would give you the following SPers
Senga, Quintana, Giolito, Houser, 2 of Paxton/Ryu/Montas
+ Megill, Peterson + the Vasil, Scott etc arms.
I'd be happy with Montomery as well, but this wouldn't be a terrible approach
Jordan Montgomery 31 / $122.50M x 5.0 ($24.50M)
Shōta Imanaga 30 / $80.00M x 4.0 ($20.00M)
Lucas Giolito 29 / $49.50M x 3.0 ($16.50M)
i think giolito may make most sense taking a 1 year deal (or 2 year with opt out). the other 2 seem likely to get 4 or 5 years.
ironically after all said and done, yamamoto's AAV ended up close to the projections since the deal length got almost twice as long (was originally projected at 7 or 8 years).
Ideally Giolito 1 year with a second year option (it'll be a player option if he takes a 1 year deal) BUT if he pitches well that option gives you an "easy" path to an extension if he pitches pretty well.
Quote:
In comment 16332490 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)
soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.
i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.
i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.
Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.
You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.
Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.
okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?
the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:
"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance
"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year
The Yankees offer was for a higher AAV than either the Dodgers or the Mets. That doesn’t align with your theory that they were so concerned about Soto and/or the luxury tax penalties. They didn’t want to go past 10 years for a SP. if they weee so concerned about the luxury tax, the offer they had on the table wouldn’t make sense. The issue was the years, not the money
Quote:
.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.
The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.
Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.
The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.
Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Quote:
In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.
The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.
Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.
The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.
Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Has there been any reporting that there was no deferrals etc with the Yankees offer?
Can't wait for them to lose Soto next offseason
Quote:
In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.
The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.
Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.
The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.
Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Has there been any reporting that there was no deferrals etc with the Yankees offer?
Can't wait for them to lose Soto next offseason
Wouldn't hold my breath on that now that Yamamoto went to LA.
Quote:
In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.
The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.
Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.
The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.
Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Interesting, so in your statistically trained opinion why do you suppose he took less to play for a team other than Yankees?
Would give you the following SPers
Senga, Quintana, Giolito, Houser, 2 of Paxton/Ryu/Montas
+ Megill, Peterson + the Vasil, Scott etc arms.
I'd be happy with Montomery as well, but this wouldn't be a terrible approach
I don’t mind the approach on field I just hate having 5/6 expire next year. Even if 2 work out well enough you extend them, you are filling 3/6 again from fa next year.
My ideal is Montgomery or imanaga on 4-5 years, then a 1 year. Ideally giolito bc he has the best workload track record but I’d be ok with Montas or manaea too.
And if the price for snell ends up closer to Nola, I’d be all over that.
Quote:
In comment 16332549 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16332490 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)
soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.
i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.
i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.
Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.
You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.
Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.
okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?
the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:
"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance
"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year
The Yankees offer was for a higher AAV than either the Dodgers or the Mets. That doesn’t align with your theory that they were so concerned about Soto and/or the luxury tax penalties. They didn’t want to go past 10 years for a SP. if they weee so concerned about the luxury tax, the offer they had on the table wouldn’t make sense. The issue was the years, not the money
So what stopped them from increasing their offer another $25m over the same number of fewer years?
Aav would still be lower than Cole as would be the total amount after they guarantee the extra year so he doesn’t opt out (which they are going to do anyway).
Quote:
In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.
The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.
Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.
The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.
Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Interesting, so in your statistically trained opinion why do you suppose he took less to play for a team other than Yankees?
Simple- he WANTED to go the Dodgers- the Mets and Yanks got played.
Áou entire theory has been debunked repeatedly here. Give up and find another post to troll on
Quote:
In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer said:
Quote:
.
100% agree. The reality is the Yankees were in the worst position to spend of the 3 teams, but they dont want to say "we cheaped out" after spending the last month exuding confidence they were getting him.
No, the real issue is that many in the media, fans and others must have failed high school math- your statements squarely put you in that group.
The Yanks offer was 10 years $300M. The winning Dodgers offer was 12 years $325M.
Now, yes, the Dodgers did give him a $50M signing bonus and backloaded the deal so that he would lose out on most of the money if he opted out, but look at the average annual value.
The Yanks offer was for $30M per year in a straight line- no gimmicks or budgeting tricks. The Dodgers are giving him $27M per year. So- no, the Yanks didn’t “cheap out” or get overbid. Their bid WAS the highest annual bid.
Math sucks, but its pretty clear you failed at statistics.
Interesting, so in your statistically trained opinion why do you suppose he took less to play for a team other than Yankees?
Simple- he WANTED to go the Dodgers- the Mets and Yanks got played.
Áou entire theory has been debunked repeatedly here. Give up and find another post to troll on
ok so why do you suppose he gave the yankees a chance to match the $325m?
here in reality we met fans can accept the fact that he didn't give cohen a chance to beat the lad offer because he didnt want to come here. apologies if not wearing pinstripe goggles feels like trolling to you, but plain as day it has been reported the yankees had a chance to raise their bid and they refused.
you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.
you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.
Quote:
In comment 16332557 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332549 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16332490 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332486 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the Yankees drew that line with Cole, Soto is 1000% going to ger more than Judge. Will they just view keeping a current Yankee (Soto) as different than paying a FA more than your guy (Cole?)
soto is 100% going to become the biggest total deal, beyond ohtani. today id bet on over $500m.
i have said for 2 weeks that's why i think the yankees were most restricted in this bidding war, because that one is going to be more important for them.
i have no idea how in/out the nyy are on imanaga/montgomery but i think every extra $ they can get cohen to spend is effort they are happy to make right now.
Okay Captain Obvious. Since the Nats traded him because he turned down $440M+ over two years ago, everyone and their brother knew he was going to go for more than $500M. And water is wet.
You also seem to fail to grasp the basics of payroll construction. The Yanks have the least problem of anyone to sign Soto. He will pulls down something in the range of $33M in arbitration. That means to sign him to a $50M per deal, they only have to find an additional $17M- where every other team has to find $50M to give him.
Just letting go of Rizzo and his $20M for luxury tax purposes achieves that goal.
okay captain missing the obvious where did i say the yankees would have a "problem" resigning soto?
the last couple weeks have made it pretty clear that nyy fans do occasionally need to read met fans to understand their payroll, so let me help translate the bolded parts my post for you:
"more restricted in this bidding war" = yamamoto negotiation, you know the one where the yankees just lost because they refused to increase their offer when given the chance
"that one is going to be more important" = soto next year
The Yankees offer was for a higher AAV than either the Dodgers or the Mets. That doesn’t align with your theory that they were so concerned about Soto and/or the luxury tax penalties. They didn’t want to go past 10 years for a SP. if they weee so concerned about the luxury tax, the offer they had on the table wouldn’t make sense. The issue was the years, not the money
So what stopped them from increasing their offer another $25m over the same number of fewer years?
Aav would still be lower than Cole as would be the total amount after they guarantee the extra year so he doesn’t opt out (which they are going to do anyway).
It’s really freakin simple. They had their number and they weren’t going to exceed it. Why is this so difficult to grasp? They already offered the highest AAV. On a 10 year contract. The fact they went as high as they did should instantly dismiss your little theory of them being afraid of the luxury tax.I don’t blame them for not just simply handing him a blank check. They had their value on what his worth was. Period.
you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.
you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.
No- you are the one blinded with Yanks hate and trying to make a case that has no factual basis.
The Yanks made a bid that actually had a higher AAV, had TWO opt outs- which were both a year earlier than the Dodgers and actually was a better deal financially since under the Yanks bid, he would have been a FA at 35, not 37 like the Dodgers deal.
The Mets effectively made the same offer as the Dodgers and never got the chance to up their bid.
All of that tells you that Yamamoto had ZERO interest in signing in NY. Good on the Yanks for recognizing that upping their bid wasn’t going to get it done- they made a better offer and the Mets made the same offer as the Dodgers- and he still choose the Dodgers.
If you STILL cannot see that the NY teams got played, that’s your bias showing.
Quote:
In comment 16332697 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16332493 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16332491 Ten Ton Hammer
Áou entire theory has been debunked repeatedly here. Give up and find another post to troll on
You're literally in the Mets thread ya dingus
So what stopped them from increasing their offer another $25m over the same number of fewer years?
Aav would still be lower than Cole as would be the total amount after they guarantee the extra year so he doesn’t opt out (which they are going to do anyway).
It’s really freakin simple. They had their number and they weren’t going to exceed it. Why is this so difficult to grasp? They already offered the highest AAV. On a 10 year contract. The fact they went as high as they did should instantly dismiss your little theory of them being afraid of the luxury tax.I don’t blame them for not just simply handing him a blank check. They had their value on what his worth was. Period.
i know you are a nyy fan who probably hasnt been tracking the 2k+ posts of mets offseason threads, but it might surprise you to know that nothing about that is difficult to grasp because it's exactly what i've expected since the nyy got soto. you are right it is really simple, once you add a $500m+ player you want to keep for a decade it's harder to then go spend another $400m+ on a different player over the same decade. unless of course 1 of those players is willing to defer 95%+ of their compensation for a decade.
literally had this whole discussion with a different nyy fan who jumped in a few days ago before yamamoto made his decision.
In comment 16328225 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16328144 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 16328098 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
the #Yankees “are the team to beat” in the Yamamoto race goes onto he’s had his eyes on the Yankees for “years”
if the yankees end up getting yamamoto it is going to put them into such a squeeze with soto next year.
boras is obviously going to look to top the ohtani total value and at that point yankees will have the 2 highest non-2-way-SP by AAV so extending soto would also give them the 2 highest position players by AAV.
soto will be just 26 years old so wouldn't be shocked if he gets a $500m x 10 offer that beats ohtani in both total deal and aav.
a bird in the hand so id rather get yamamoto now, but if i was choosing 1 or the other id take the every day player who is already heading towards canton. i think the mets should have tried harder to trade for him as nyy did. though if they can end up with someone like yelich a lot cheaper and swapping marte, i think that's a great move and probably better ROI.
Yankees fan here. I don't want to hijack the thread but they won't necessarily need to make that choice.
The Yankees have ~$40-50M coming off the books after this year. Even in a down year they made about $80M more than the next highest team (LAD). If they have a good year with Soto, attendance will be a little higher and that extra $ + what's coming off the books would cover Soto's next contract. The question though is whether or not they'll be willing to give it to him. That we'll have to wait and see.
Of course, YY and a Soto extension would be the last big money moves they'd make for a couple of years so would have to rely on the farm/player development to fill holes and to make trades to acquire cost-controlled talent.
i get the revenue argument, but i think the scale of the revenue doesn't equal the scale of how much more tax the yankees would be committing to in the 4 years before the end of the stanton contract.
judge (40m)
+ cole (36m)
+ rodon (27m)
+ stanton (22m)
+ let's say $75m per year for yama/soto (which may be light)
= 200m for 6 players for at minimum 4 years (this is assuming both soto extension next year and yankees giving cole his extra year).
the CBT peaks at $244m in 2026 so with benefits and even only minimum salaries other than those 6 there would be literally no way to get under it over those 4 years, so it is 4 years of 3 year repeater tax level.
now add for the next 2 years, almost $30m per year more is on lemahieu and retained money from hicks/donaldson. and another 17m on rizzo this year.
then next year torres needs an extension, cortes in 2 years, so when that bad money comes off there is new money coming right behind it.
add all that up and id be pretty confident guessing that signing yamamoto and soto locks in a $300m+ payroll for at least the 4 years with stanton, which means 60m+ luxury tax bills each of those years, not just this year. and it may even be beyond those 4 years because Stanton at 22m in CBT isn't even that significant.
maybe the plan is to go all in for those 4 years that judge is still judge and cole is still cole, but that is going to be an insanely expensive all in because id imagine they still need to spend on more in other places and even a $5m contract turns into $10m out the door.
and the cherry on top is that the last big piece to extend (soto) will be the hardest with boras squeezing every ounce to set a new record.
it's possible cashman sees this group as his last stand and figures go big or go home. if he gets it accomplished he will have sold Hal on a several hundred million dollar all in. not impossible but i think it's much more likely to end up 1 of soto/yamamoto not both.
if you think the nyy wouldn't have changed their final number and up'ed their bid for yamamoto if they hadn't already gotten soto, let's just say we very much agree to disagree.
Quote:
then why didnt he go back to the mets, who almost certainly would have raised their offer and actually participated in a bidding war, but never got the chance?
you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.
you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.
No- you are the one blinded with Yanks hate and trying to make a case that has no factual basis.
The Yanks made a bid that actually had a higher AAV, had TWO opt outs- which were both a year earlier than the Dodgers and actually was a better deal financially since under the Yanks bid, he would have been a FA at 35, not 37 like the Dodgers deal.
The Mets effectively made the same offer as the Dodgers and never got the chance to up their bid.
All of that tells you that Yamamoto had ZERO interest in signing in NY. Good on the Yanks for recognizing that upping their bid wasn’t going to get it done- they made a better offer and the Mets made the same offer as the Dodgers- and he still choose the Dodgers.
If you STILL cannot see that the NY teams got played, that’s your bias showing.
is bigblueshock "blinded by yankee hate" since he says the yankees had a number they didnt want to exceed??
i can cite reports from martino to heyman that the yankees were give a chance to increase their offer and passed - can you cite a single credible report that yamamoto wouldn't have signed with the yankees if they'd made the best offer?
Quote:
In comment 16333006 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
then why didnt he go back to the mets, who almost certainly would have raised their offer and actually participated in a bidding war, but never got the chance?
you guys are seeing ghosts when the answer is plainly obvious. the yankees had a chance to get a guy they've been scouting, hyping, and holding out a uniform for and in the end they self selected not getting him by refusing to match the highest bid.
you want to think that had nothing to do with money by all means go ahead but that $25m spread over 10 (or more) years is perhaps the only reason they didnt get him.
No- you are the one blinded with Yanks hate and trying to make a case that has no factual basis.
The Yanks made a bid that actually had a higher AAV, had TWO opt outs- which were both a year earlier than the Dodgers and actually was a better deal financially since under the Yanks bid, he would have been a FA at 35, not 37 like the Dodgers deal.
The Mets effectively made the same offer as the Dodgers and never got the chance to up their bid.
All of that tells you that Yamamoto had ZERO interest in signing in NY. Good on the Yanks for recognizing that upping their bid wasn’t going to get it done- they made a better offer and the Mets made the same offer as the Dodgers- and he still choose the Dodgers.
If you STILL cannot see that the NY teams got played, that’s your bias showing.
is bigblueshock "blinded by yankee hate" since he says the yankees had a number they didnt want to exceed??
i can cite reports from martino to heyman that the yankees were give a chance to increase their offer and passed - can you cite a single credible report that yamamoto wouldn't have signed with the yankees if they'd made the best offer?
Again- you are desperately trying to prove something that doesn’t exist. You do not have a single fact to support your belief. Just because you desperately WANT to believe something does not make it true.
Same here- the Yanks had the best financial offer and were effectively asked to bid against themselves with NO guarantee that upping their bid would win. Ask yourself this- if you were bidding on a house against another buyer- and the owner comes back and asks you to raise your bid- which also happens to be the high bid, will you do so?
If you answered yes, you probably shouldn’t be making those level of decisions- because where is the guarantee? No guarantee means you are just throwing money away- and the owner is more likely to shop it to the other buyers unless you get that guarantee.
While no one will likely say- the Yanks almost certainly asked if there was a guarantee that’s Yamamoto would accept if they raised their bid and the agent responded “no.” Thus the Yanks likely realized that they weren’t going to win and we just being used to raise the Dodgers bid. The fact that the Mets were not allowed to raise their bid demonstrates that Yamamoto and his agent were not really dealing in good faith with either NY team.
here's my last question for u to consider then ill bow out - if the offer he accepted was a truly lesser offer, why wouldnt the yankees have been happy to match a lesser offer? what harm is there in instigating a bidding war by agreeing to a lesser offer?
in all sincerity merry xmas rich we arent going to agree and if you think it's just bias against the nyy maybe find your way back to a nyy thread bc im sure everyone else is over this.
Francys Romero
Paid
@francysromeroFR
Dodgers are among the teams still monitoring OF Teoscar Hernández market, per sources.
They are not favorites to sign Hernandez but they can surprise.
@bnicholsonsmith
Blows my mind how under the radar he is.
Mets have a young MEGA star, and no one other than Mets fans talk about him.
In other news so much for the small crowd of people who felt like just wait for the legal issues to resolve themselves, it's probably a cultural thing. I'm pretty sure this guy never plays MLB again if these allegations are true.
@AlertasMundial
🇩🇴 | #BREAKING • Properties in Bani are raided in search of baseball player Wander Franco.
The Santo Domingo Prosecutor's Office for Children and Adolescents carried out two raids this Tuesday in Bani, Peravia province, in search of baseball player Wander Franco.
According to information, the authorities are looking for the athlete for alleged sexual abuse of a minor in Puerto Plata.
Around 3:00 in the afternoon, police vehicles and the Santo Domingo Children's Attorney's Office were observed arriving at Franco's maternal home in the community of Palo Blanco, in Baní.
Later they went to the house where the player resides without finding evidence.
Franco, 22, did not finish the last Major League season due to the aforementioned case, in which the Major Leagues decided to initiate their own investigation and placed Franco on the restricted list.
Quote:
has def lost weight, looks like a good 10-15 pounds
Blows my mind how under the radar he is.
Mets have a young MEGA star, and no one other than Mets fans talk about him.
Did people think he was a little overweight? I feel like catchers need a couple of extra lbs to help endure the pounding they take (gigity)
He's a big reason why I think this lineup could be at least 'good' without a big bat brought in this offseason
Héctor Gómez
@hgomez27
SOURCE: New evidence has been found in the case of Wander Franco that further implicates him in the accusations that have been made against him of alleged relationships with minors.
And for all the franchises for this to happen to, sucks it's the Rays.
metZZ 1986🛜
@bkfan09
With the 2024 IFA Class starting on January 15, 2024 all or most players signing on that day. I figured I’d give some names for the 2025 Mets
Elian Peña (SS)
Yeison Acosta(OF)
Steuri Amancio(OF)
Cleiner Ramirez (IF)
(they will be signing all 3 "Ramirez brothers"
And for all the franchises for this to happen to, sucks it's the Rays.
I like to let the legal system play out, and i know sometimes the long arm of the law can only reach so far, but from a lot of what I read Bauer may not be what you think or what has been written. Sure like, at least in one case, he was set up.
but whatever, I'm not his PR guy. I expect MLB will or has investigated and we know the law has, so if the Mets are interested in signing him good enough for me.
Bauer, from what I had read, had never been accused of anything remotely close to Franco.
and for me, facts matter. but I also defer to the legal system the league and the team to decide who to sign or not, I don't have a fake moral compass like some fans or one written in pencil or chalk so it can be adjusted when convenient.
cancel those 4 out and mets are +1 wins at C thanks to alvarez and down -2.5 wins in OF with canha gone/marte lowered (plus obviously down 1x 4+fwar SP and some RP).
last year's team obviously fell on it's face, but here's the 2022 team where the math is similar:
it seems like stearns is taking a value-focused approach to handing out new contracts while mostly putting the pressure on the core 4 to show whether or not they are a winning core (and i suppose how many young guys other than Alvarez are ready to join the core). clearly fair questions to ask while keeping open the possibility of reseting luxury tax next year, but i wouldn't do it at the expense of letting a pitcher they like get by them this offseason. obviously it appears yamamoto was the only pitcher who fit that definition enough to be worth a bidding war. for the rest it appears it will come down to matching the $ fit.
by the end of the offseason id imagine all 3 of these projections end up pretty close to each other. 1 year they overachieved, 1 year they underachieved, next year will be tie breaker.
See new posts
Conversation
Ryan Thibodaux
Verified
@NotMrTibbs
With 49 ballots revealed/~12.8% known:
Beltré - 98.0%
Helton - 85.7%
Mauer - 79.6%
---
Sheffield - 73.5%
Wagner - 71.4%
Jones - 65.3%
Beltrán - 63.3%
Utley - 51.0%
Ramírez - 46.9%
A-Rod - 44.9%
Abreu - 18.4%
Rollins - 16.3%
K-Rod - 14.3%
Pettitte - 12.2%
Vizquel - 12.2%
Buehrle - 8.2%
Wright - 8.2%
Hunter - 4.1%
Colón - 2.0%
I agree you let the legal system decide if it is criminal/civil. But there is way more smoke AND fire than anyone has a clue about...
(Hard to believe the Mets give Hernandez that kind of deal)
(Hard to believe the Mets give Hernandez that kind of deal)
i expect they will add another OF but it seems like they are generally value hunting. pham wouldnt be the worst reunion idea.
the only "what if" is how far the LAD go if ohtani didnt defer a present day $440m.
on a straight normal deal that's $44m they had to spend this year and every year for the next 9 that they dont have to. the $100m+ they are paying between signing bonus, salary, posting fee this year is a lot easier having saved a big chunk with ohtani. they could have afforded yamamoto but everyone has a budget so they probably wouldnt have been able to do whatever else they still do (like hader).
morosi making a run for the new nightengale.
First choice if LAD didn’t get involved, aka his second choice
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
Quote:
1 he wanted to go to LAD more than NYM
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
welcome back rich hope you had a great xmas, can you remind me again why the yankees refused to match what you called "a lesser offer"? if it was truly lesser, how would that have hurt them in any way?
Quote:
1 he wanted to go to LAD more than NYM
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
Ya know what’s unsettling and weird is that this thread is buried in the forum as it was started back in early Dec. Yet you were determined to seek it out looking for internet conflict with one of the most veteran rational unbiased posters on BBI. Also internet conflict is faceless and spineless
Kinda really weird dude. Maybe sit this one out ?
So you really had to search….
😰
Quote:
In comment 16337191 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
1 he wanted to go to LAD more than NYM
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
Ya know what’s unsettling and weird is that this thread is buried in the forum as it was started back in early Dec. Yet you were determined to seek it out looking for internet conflict with one of the most veteran rational unbiased posters on BBI. Also internet conflict is faceless and spineless
Kinda really weird dude. Maybe sit this one out ?
You don't sort by 'last post'?
Makes the site much more convenient imo.
As for the Yankees fan... some people have nothing better to do
Quote:
In comment 16337191 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
1 he wanted to go to LAD more than NYM
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
Ya know what’s unsettling and weird is that this thread is buried in the forum as it was started back in early Dec. Yet you were determined to seek it out looking for internet conflict with one of the most veteran rational unbiased posters on BBI. Also internet conflict is faceless and spineless
Kinda really weird dude. Maybe sit this one out ?
Maybe if you actually looked at the latest posts, you would see people pst omn this thread everyday, so no- I am not “seeking out internet conflict” by “digging” for old posts.
Makes you look clueless.
Maybe if you actually looked at the latest posts, you would see people pst omn this thread everyday, so no- I am not “seeking out internet conflict” by “digging” for old posts.
While you are right, it's still really weird for you (as a Yankee fan) to not only be posting on a thread that is clearly marked as a Mets thread, but then picking fights on top of that...
Tyler Milliken ⚾️
Paid
@tylermilliken_
·
27m
According to
@Enrique_Rojas1
, the Red Sox are evaluating Yariel Rodriguez as a starter.
WBC must’ve impressed them. Blue Jays and Pirates are also in that camp.
Stuff was electric, but command was iffy. Working with Andrew Bailey would be interesting.
So you really had to search….
😰
It always surprises me how obsessed Yankee fans tend to be with the Mets. Never understood it.
Quote:
In comment 16337212 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16337191 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
1 he wanted to go to LAD more than NYM
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
Ya know what’s unsettling and weird is that this thread is buried in the forum as it was started back in early Dec. Yet you were determined to seek it out looking for internet conflict with one of the most veteran rational unbiased posters on BBI. Also internet conflict is faceless and spineless
Kinda really weird dude. Maybe sit this one out ?
Maybe if you actually looked at the latest posts, you would see people pst omn this thread everyday, so no- I am not “seeking out internet conflict” by “digging” for old posts.
Makes you look clueless.
wait, I'm clueless because I dont sort my posts? lol what?
you're right though, you def are not seeking out internet conflict, not one bit....
so anyways this is a Mets thread...
Tyler Milliken ⚾️
Paid
@tylermilliken_
·
27m
According to
@Enrique_Rojas1
, the Red Sox are evaluating Yariel Rodriguez as a starter.
WBC must’ve impressed them. Blue Jays and Pirates are also in that camp.
Stuff was electric, but command was iffy. Working with Andrew Bailey would be interesting.
agree in the sense that it's disappointing they havent seen more targets that get them excited (whether rodriguez or other). they seem to be value shopping which is i guess a reasonable way to shop (the houser trade was great) but id prefer they see more guys they feel conviction on and target in a year that had (has) a lot of pitching.
the projections mostly have snell/montgomery/imanaga/giolito similar so i can understand wanting the guys who are younger and cost less. but they have so many openings across the full staff they should be able to do both at different price points.
Quote:
In comment 16337457 Rory said:
Quote:
In comment 16337212 rich in DC said:
Quote:
In comment 16337191 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
1 he wanted to go to LAD more than NYM
2 even though he clearly preferred LAD by a wide margin, they still had to match the NYM $ in total (probably bc of his former team/posting process)
the rest is speculation or spin. if there was 1 team who ended up top $ by any sort of meaningful margin i think he was going to whoever that 1 team was. i think it would have cost at least another $50m to get LAD to walk away though. who knows maybe more.
1 thing people are forgetting about LAD is that to have the room they had for $1bn of ohtani/yamamoto they had to let 1bn walk out the door with Seager, Turner, Scherzer the last few years. Not to mention Jansen, Urias likely gone, Bellinger. They saved up for this moment and then got an extra $440m+ to spend this decade thanks to Ohtani's decision to defer.
Give up. The only one speculating is you. You and I went back and forth on this for days because you cannot admit you were wrong.
The facts are in- your wild speculation was completely without merit or fact. Stop trying to spin this into some sort of vindication for yourself. If anything, I should be taking a victory lap.
Ya know what’s unsettling and weird is that this thread is buried in the forum as it was started back in early Dec. Yet you were determined to seek it out looking for internet conflict with one of the most veteran rational unbiased posters on BBI. Also internet conflict is faceless and spineless
Kinda really weird dude. Maybe sit this one out ?
Maybe if you actually looked at the latest posts, you would see people pst omn this thread everyday, so no- I am not “seeking out internet conflict” by “digging” for old posts.
Makes you look clueless.
wait, I'm clueless because I dont sort my posts? lol what?
you're right though, you def are not seeking out internet conflict, not one bit....
so anyways this is a Mets thread...
Pretty appropriate in this instance that the nickname for Richard is Dick
I know the two big dominoes had to fall and then there wasn't a ton of huge names, but man the Mets needed to fill a lot of holes in that pitching staff (plus a few in the field) and I don't see it.
I know I have seemed pessimistic all off-season but to me the inflection point kind of hinged on Yamamoto. a 25-year old on his prime likely TOR pitcher for the next decade. If you could get him it changed everything, if not, it changed everything - just opposite ways.
Now, I feel like almost any approach to build a roster with FA's will be a duct tape and band-aid patchwork - spending for the sake of spending.
I know there is a need to compete, but IMO - no long-terms deals to players who don't deserve them. Sure sign a Giolito to a year with an option b/c you need to field a team but I'd look long and hard at this roster if I was Stearns and think about what parts are salvageable and what can be sold off and rebuild methodically not reactionarily (if that's a word)
Francys Romero
Paid
@francysromeroFR
Dodgers are among the teams still monitoring OF Teoscar Hernández market, per sources.
They are not favorites to sign Hernandez but they can surprise.
i think this is going to happen.
JDM would likely mean your guy Vientos being sent packing or sent down
Quote:
With a ridiculous 17% barrel% - both 98th percentile. His career avg was 91 mph so that’s a jump that probably leads to drug tests.
JDM would likely mean your guy Vientos being sent packing or sent down
probably. possible they let him and baty compete for 3b with loser going down. if jdm hits like he did last year not even i would complain about that.
Also, they’re showing interest in Blake Snell alongside the Angels, Giants, Phillies, and others.
LOL, isn't that just a little bit dramatic?
This roster still has one of the best closers in the game, one of the top SS's in the game, one of the top 1B/power hitters in the entire game, one of the top young catchers to come around in a long time.
Senga is a lot of fun, Nimmo is up there, mcNeil is quirky but fun to watch. Young talent in Vientos/Baty and more on the cusp.
WS front runners, of course not. But to say they are punting and to give up before the New year? Enjoy the talent we do have - it's been much, much worse in the not so distant past.
Quote:
winning team on the field. I’ve never been less interested in an upcoming season, and this is coming from someone most people consider a diehard Mets fan. I’ve lost interest.
LOL, isn't that just a little bit dramatic?
This roster still has one of the best closers in the game, one of the top SS's in the game, one of the top 1B/power hitters in the entire game, one of the top young catchers to come around in a long time.
Senga is a lot of fun, Nimmo is up there, mcNeil is quirky but fun to watch. Young talent in Vientos/Baty and more on the cusp.
WS front runners, of course not. But to say they are punting and to give up before the New year? Enjoy the talent we do have - it's been much, much worse in the not so distant past.
This roster is old, boring, tired and stale. If you want, you can manipulate yourself into thinking this can be a fun team to watch that can win something that matters. Spoiler alert: it won’t be.
This team is going to suck. It’ll be another wasted season in Metsville.
I'm not saying punt the season or winning is impossible, but the gap in the division between the Mets and Braves and even Phillies is wide. I'm not even sure with everything you mentioned the Mets would be reasonably expected to finish ahead of the Marlins.
The gap with the Dodgers is wider, probably a wide gap still with SD too.
The Mets need to find a way to build a sustained winner.
Signing Giolito or JDM is not going to move the needle much but it also relatively harmless as short-term deals.
I'd be much more interested in finding creative ways to get young or young-ish productive players to add to the core and consider the long game.
If it means trading Alonso I said many times it should be on the table. I wouldn't trade him for sunflower seeds, but if I found the team who felt they were a righty power hitter away from contending and willing to pay a premium for him and it made the Mets better long-term I wouldn't think twice.
I know as fans we (me) tend to be impatient, but I am patient if I believe there is a plan. I get impatient when I see reactionary moves or seemingly rudderless floating. And a league leading payroll (or close).
Quote:
winning team on the field. I’ve never been less interested in an upcoming season, and this is coming from someone most people consider a diehard Mets fan. I’ve lost interest.
LOL, isn't that just a little bit dramatic?
This roster still has one of the best closers in the game, one of the top SS's in the game, one of the top 1B/power hitters in the entire game, one of the top young catchers to come around in a long time.
Senga is a lot of fun, Nimmo is up there, mcNeil is quirky but fun to watch. Young talent in Vientos/Baty and more on the cusp.
WS front runners, of course not. But to say they are punting and to give up before the New year? Enjoy the talent we do have - it's been much, much worse in the not so distant past.
takes on this year's team are all colored by their own comments throwing cold water, but put me in the category of agreeing that prime aged years of senga, lindor, nimmo, alonso, diaz shouldn't be overlooked/wasted like so many jdg/wright years were.
i do think stearns will eventually open up the check book to buy quality depth enough to give that group a chance to compete just seemingly in a much more disciplined way than mehppler would have. but for all his faults mehppler did win offseaons. he just blew player development and the occasional trade deadline.
@ZackScottSports
·
1h
I know people (same industry) who were accused (some falsely), punished, and unable to continue their careers. Btw, they didn't make $77m. Do you know how they handle it? They wear it, don't publicly complain, and quietly work on themselves personally and professionally.🤷♂️
Quote
Trevor Bauer (トレバー・バウアー)
@BauerOutage
·
19h
Scenario: a company has posted a job opening. You apply. The company rejects your application before the interview process, stating that your skill is not the reason for the rejection, but they don’t think it would be good for public relations being associated with you. You find…
Show more
Elits21
@elits02
·
1h
If your were still a GM, given he wasn't charged, would you sign him?
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
I never want to impact a player's market so I only talk about the past markets. I was acting GM of the Mets when we almost signed him. I wanted nothing to do with him but others above me did. I don't say that to toss them under the bus because the talent was obviously there.
https://x.com/MLBNetwork/status/1740819170143392082?s=20 - ( New Window )
Quote:
....They wear it, don't publicly complain, and quietly work on themselves personally and professionally.🤷♂️...
i assume scott is saying what he is more for whatever the reasons were that he didnt want to sign bauer when he was acting gm and before this particular situation came out.
that was the piece that seemed newsworthy on the mets side, that he was opposed to bauer but got overruled.
@JeffPassan
·
BREAKING: Right-hander Lucas Giolito and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a two-year, $38.5 million contract that includes an opt-out after the first season, sources tell ESPN.
Boston lands its first big signing of the winter. The question now is: Will there be more?
Jeff Passan
@JeffPassan
·
Lucas Giolito is a solid signing for Boston — lots of innings and strikeouts. But he also got upward of $20 million a season coming off back-to-back years with ERAs of 4.90 and 4.88, and he allowed 41 homers this season. Opt-out lets him parlay a good year into free agency at 30.
@mikemayer22
·
Mets had interest here.
@JeffPassan
Giolito’s deal with Boston gives him an $18M salary in 2024 and a $1M buyout if he opts out. If not, the salary for 2025 is $19M. There is a conditional option for 2026 — $14M club option if he throws under 140 innings in 2025, $19M mutual option for 140+, with a $1.5M buyout.
no issue if they are aiming higher for montgomery, snell, imanaga, but if not this could end up looking like every bit the steal bassitt ended up.
Just curious, how old are you?
the floor on the mid-rotation SP market is 19m multi-year.
e-rod got 20m x 4 years.
montgomery has been projected around 24-25m for 5 years. which seems in line with how things have fallen.
snell has been projected around 29m with an extra 6th year.
imanaga has been rumored to have 5 year deals around $100m.
that is basically the entire remaining multi-year SP market projected to get more than Severino.
Yes, YY was never coming to a NY team. But there are other options to build the staff beyond even “punting” for a year. Did Cohen get spooked by the cost of failing last season? Probably not. Is Stearns slow rolling things? This is still a team that has a lot of win-now talent. It almost seems like they don’t want to build around this core. But the lack of urgency is disappointing.
Yes, YY was never coming to a NY team. But there are other options to build the staff beyond even “punting” for a year. Did Cohen get spooked by the cost of failing last season? Probably not. Is Stearns slow rolling things? This is still a team that has a lot of win-now talent. It almost seems like they don’t want to build around this core. But the lack of urgency is disappointing.
This to me is why a hard reset would've been my preference after missing out on Yamamoto. If you trade Alonso, McNeil, and Marte, you can get under the lux tax threshold. Add some good young talent and let the kids play, then be aggressive in 2025. Not a popular opinion, I know. And yeah, you're not going to get much for Marte but some salary relief which would be the goal with moving him.
mcneil may or may not be movable but you arent getting much for him.
alonso can bring back something but it wont be nearly what anyone thinks.
and even if you moved all 3 of them right now with a magic wand without taking back another penny you are still not reseting the luxury tax.
if giolito ends up having been too expensive for the mets at that price then i scratch my head at what seems like a wasted offseason. his $ is right at the projections, as most deals have been, probably even a little under all factors considered. joe demayo posted this yesterday and i really hope we arent wasting a season learning this lesson the hard way.
but that aside that clue to the structure of the yamamoto offer from mets gives us some insight to their thinking. with a 5 year opt out the mets had to be planning this as basically a 5 year deal. if he pitches anywhere close to as expected he was/is going to opt out and the final 7 years were just risk if he pitched below expectations.
looking at it as a 5 year deal:
$50m posting fee
+$27m aav* 5 years
=$185m ($37m true aav)
is giolito for 1-2 years at half that AAV and less total $ than just the posting fee really not a good deal worth doing? he is 29 years old and has received CY votes in 3 different seasons.
i get it if they like someone more recently productive more (montgomery, snell) but a yamamoto or bust offseason to the extent that a player like gilito they liked enough to talk to was too expensive is not a team leveraging cohen's resources to it's full advantage.
Robert Stephenson
Fit the Mets and even their supposed timeline.
Quote:
Get a life Rich in DC.
Just curious, how old are you?
I thought it wasn't polite to ask people their age.
In full disclosure, I was listening to a Mets podcast and Manny Machado's name was mentioned. If San Diego wanted to dump salary. There wasn't any rumor or evidence of Machado being moved at the moment. San Diego is likely looking to shed salary but they still need to field an MLB roster. If they were, what would a Machado and Darvish trade look like if we were to assume the salary. Or Machado and Hot Sauce Ears Musgrove (since Buck is gone).?
Quote:
In comment 16338696 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
Get a life Rich in DC.
Just curious, how old are you?
I thought it wasn't polite to ask people their age.
I thought that only applied to females. My apologies.
Quote:
Besides Hader and Robertson West else are we looking at for pen? This could be the easiest way to improve the team on the fly.
Robert Stephenson
Hicks and Suter 2 others.
i like will carrolls 1k innings guideline for starters, that's where the roster is scary at the moment.
let's say optimistically there's 180 senga/quintana for 360.
now you have 640 to fill with:
severino (90 innings last year)
houser (111 innings last year)
megill (126 innings last year)
luchesi (120 innings between aaa/mlb last year)
they are at least 200 innings short even if they get good health. and the last time they got good health was...
giolito was a very affordable 180.
@JonHeyman
·
Breaking: Frankie Montas goes to Reds
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
·
Montas deal is expected to be in the $15M-$16M range with Reds
Quote:
In comment 16338712 mitch300 said:
Quote:
In comment 16338696 Optimus-NY said:
Quote:
Get a life Rich in DC.
Just curious, how old are you?
I thought it wasn't polite to ask people their age.
I thought that only applied to females. My apologies.
Yankee threads are dead - so they are clearly bored. They’ve gone from obsessively lurking Mets threads to wanting to desperately wanting to participate in something.
Yankee fans always bring the lulz.
if giolito was too expensive for them at 19m,
then montas was certainly too expensive at 16m.
freaking wacha got 2x16m. yes, that guy.
a flier on 1-2 of lauer, ryu, manaea etc like severino is fine. 3 of them in the rotation a yikes.
boras so id imagine somewhere similar in the montas range (also boras).
both projected around 2 wins next year, montas coming off injury so manaea maybe even more than montas.
the market for these types is now pretty set so if the mets like 1 of them it should be pretty easy to pounce. would think most of the remaining guys in that tier are 1 years instead of multi-years like maeda/lugo/etc.
@JeffPassan
·
BREAKING: The Atlanta Braves are acquiring seven-time All-Star Chris Sale in a trade with the Boston Red Sox, sources tell ESPN. Well-regarded infield prospect Vaughn Grissom is the return to Boston, which will send money with Sale, who waived his no-trade clause to join Atlanta
it makes sense to unload the parts that are unloadable while they are unloadable.
I applaud this move for Boston. As a Mets fan I wish it wasn't the Braves who were the beneficiary of the salary dump because when he's healthy Sale is legit, fortunately it's not often.
I think the Mets should be doing the same right now (unloading unloadable parts).
I just don't see the Mets competing with the Braves, Phillies, Dodgers, even SD in the NL.
Hate to seem defeatist in December, lol, when the past few years it has been the exact opposite, but at this point anything will seem half-assed and reactionary. Players who were not the first choice, probably don't want to be here, but will take the money if it's the most offered.
mcneil may or may not be movable but you arent getting much for him.
alonso can bring back something but it wont be nearly what anyone thinks.
and even if you moved all 3 of them right now with a magic wand without taking back another penny you are still not reseting the luxury tax.
if giolito ends up having been too expensive for the mets at that price then i scratch my head at what seems like a wasted offseason. his $ is right at the projections, as most deals have been, probably even a little under all factors considered. joe demayo posted this yesterday and i really hope we arent wasting a season learning this lesson the hard way.
I'm not sure why not given the analytics posted about Marte's swing speed. He has power, is a plus defender, and good base runner.
And you keep saying that there's no way they'd be under the luxury tax no matter what. I'm not sure why you keep doing this. If they made it a priority, they could do it. If they really wanted to make it happen, they could.
I'm just expressing my opinion on what I think would be the best path forward, not saying you have to agree, but at the same time, the pouring cold water on an idea as if it's an impossibility is tiresome. I already know it's not what they're actually going to do. I think it's what they should do, because I believe the team needs a full reset and rebuild. That's all I'm saying.
Others are playing Mumbley Peg with Mr Magoo.
Quote:
the only wait to move marte is for someone else's dead weight. and probably only if someone else's dead weight exceeds his dead weight. he is the new mcann unless/until he starts playing like an all star again.
mcneil may or may not be movable but you arent getting much for him.
alonso can bring back something but it wont be nearly what anyone thinks.
and even if you moved all 3 of them right now with a magic wand without taking back another penny you are still not reseting the luxury tax.
if giolito ends up having been too expensive for the mets at that price then i scratch my head at what seems like a wasted offseason. his $ is right at the projections, as most deals have been, probably even a little under all factors considered. joe demayo posted this yesterday and i really hope we arent wasting a season learning this lesson the hard way.
I'm not sure why not given the analytics posted about Marte's swing speed. He has power, is a plus defender, and good base runner.
And you keep saying that there's no way they'd be under the luxury tax no matter what. I'm not sure why you keep doing this. If they made it a priority, they could do it. If they really wanted to make it happen, they could.
I'm just expressing my opinion on what I think would be the best path forward, not saying you have to agree, but at the same time, the pouring cold water on an idea as if it's an impossibility is tiresome. I already know it's not what they're actually going to do. I think it's what they should do, because I believe the team needs a full reset and rebuild. That's all I'm saying.
Is a plus defender? he was terrible last year. Like literally cost them games. Just bc his bat speed hasn’t fallen off as much as his sprint speed or as much as one may have expected given his awful season, it was still an awful season and he has $40m left.
The Mets cbt payroll right now is somewhere around $290m. The threshold is $237m. To make it through a season and fill the roster they would need to clear 70m. Marte $19.5m, McNeil 12.5, Alonso projected at 21m not getting them under isn’t an opinion it’s math. When they kick in $ like they did with scherzer and jv and McCann that still counts. Which is why those guys count about $50m against Mets payroll still.
-7 DRS, -6 OAA (10th percentile) over 86 games. Don’t have to be a math major to see that’s a pace of nearly negative 15 runs saved over a full season. His dWAR was -1.0 aka his glove was worth negative 1 wins over a half of a season, finally his sprint speed has declined each every season since 2019. 2019 29.0 FPS (92nd percentile) 2022 28.0 fps 68th and 2023 27.1, 44th percentile
Relatively low risk for the Braves. 1 year deal million with an option if he pitches well. Unless Grissom blossoms into a star, hard to see a scenario where the Braves regret making the trade. Makes sense for Boston too, a potential starting 2b for an old Sale.
Pjcas - you actually were very helpful in talking me off the ledge a few weeks ago. I’m surprised at your recent post. I understand catching the Braves might be a little unrealistic but after speaking to you in this forum, I feel like the Mets are a bit underrated now and possibly steal a wildcard spot . They do need some arms in that rotation, but based on my first paragraph, they are having some trouble.
Pjcas - you actually were very helpful in talking me off the ledge a few weeks ago. I’m surprised at your recent post. I understand catching the Braves might be a little unrealistic but after speaking to you in this forum, I feel like the Mets are a bit underrated now and possibly steal a wildcard spot . They do need some arms in that rotation, but based on my first paragraph, they are having some trouble.
I don't think the Mets have had any specific "trouble" signing FA's this off-season. They were reportedly unwilling to match or outbid Boston on Giolito, Ohtani was never coming here, Yamamoto wanted LAD. I've yet to see a circumstance where a realistic target opted for similar money somewhere else. All of that being said, if a player is signing a 1-year deal and the money is "the same", players are usually going to prefer a contending team, both because duh, they want to win but also because it's less likely they are traded in-season.
Desperation move when supply/demand were against them.
Now is the time to be making moves even if you end up selling later. More to sell.
Excuse me... 8.55 million to add Trevor Gott for half a season...goodness lol. I'm not one of the weirdos comparing Cohen to Wilpon, but I can't imagine he loved forking over 8.55 million for a few months of Trevor Gott in a lost season...
No you read it right. but I don't think you should be on a ledge. Stearns has been in the job for barely a couple months and for the league's highest payroll he was left a dumpster fire.
my sense is I'm not young but I'm not 100 years old either I'd like to give Stearns a chance to build the team he wants not the one he's forced to build due to circumstances.
I do believe the Mets won't "do nothing" they won't go into the season with Senga, Quintana, Severino, Peterson, and Butto/Megill as the rotation and I think they will add some BP pieces, but my hope at this point is to just make smart moves that allow maximum flexibility, so when there is a match with a Yamamoto and the Mets they can strike and you know Cohen won't be shy about paying for the talent that wants to be here.
So, I'm not saying punt this year, but I am saying if the Mets don't make a big splash I'm cool with it as long as they have a long-term plan and aren't just reacting.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
6m
I don’t really know what the Red Sox are doing here, trading out a club option for Sale for a player option on Giolito at the same cost basically moves you from no risk potential steal to high risk with no upside for your 2025 rotation
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
4m
Maybe Grissom hits enough to make it worthwhile but he’s got an oddball offensive profile and Atlanta, who might be the best self-scouting team in the league, very obviously did not trust him to play on the dirt
of course. would just suck to miss an opportunity. signing david robertson the last 2 seasons didnt end well for the teams that signed him...but they got ben brown and marco vargas.
eduardo escobar was a bust but he ended up bring back what got them taylor/houser.
pham got them jeremy rodriguez (soon to be j-rod?).
quintana probably would have gotten them something good last year too.
i expect there is still buying they will do and this is mostly just impatience but we know cohen is willing to spend. he was willing to make the biggest $ commitment to any P ever less than 10 days ago so i think what they dont spend is a choice. miss 100% of the shots you dont take.
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
6m
I don’t really know what the Red Sox are doing here, trading out a club option for Sale for a player option on Giolito at the same cost basically moves you from no risk potential steal to high risk with no upside for your 2025 rotation
Jarrett Seidler
@jaseidler
·
4m
Maybe Grissom hits enough to make it worthwhile but he’s got an oddball offensive profile and Atlanta, who might be the best self-scouting team in the league, very obviously did not trust him to play on the dirt
hes forgotten more about grissom than ive ever known but there's a difference between not trusting a 22 year old to play for a ws favorite (as opposed to a team in transition like red sox). if mets were a contender id be a lot more reluctant about penciling in baty at 3b than a team in mets situation (thats why they kept giving escobar chances to not suck).
This move clears Grissom from being blocked. With Austin Riley, Arcia and Ozzie Albies established in the Braves infield, Grissom’s most likely role in Atlanta was going to be as a backup or part-time left fielder sharing time with Jarred Kelenic. Now he has a shot to be an everyday regular in Boston.
Defensively, Grissom has always been stretched at shortstop, which was his primary position in 2022 and 2023. His modest range is less of an issue at second base, which is where the Red Sox have a need now that Trevor Story has returned from Tommy John surgery.
Grissom's upside is likely a solid regular, bat forward starting 2b, "floor" (floor is obviously relative, as his floor is non-big leaguer) but he may end up a tweener/utility type as well
but for a team in transition with open positions 6 years of control is worth it. he's 22 and hit .287 over 60ish games with a 107 rc. his profile is reminiscent of rosario, just less toolsy.
"In Grissom, the Red Sox get a potential solution to their hole at second base for 2023, although he comes with some question marks as well. Grissom’s debut in 2022 was outstanding, especially given how little experience he had in the minors, but he struggled in a brief opportunity as Atlanta’s shortstop in April and May last year and was optioned to Triple A on May 9 when Arcia came off the injured list. He spent nearly the remainder of 2023 in the minors, posting a .330/.419/.501 line for Triple-A Gwinnett with a high line-drive rate that bodes well for his ability to keep his average up in the majors. He’s overly aggressive at the plate, chasing pitches out of the zone at a 34.6 percent rate in the majors, per Baseball Savant (the MLB average in that time is 28.5 percent), and was around 33 percent in the minors last year as well.
He has also had a ton of trouble with changeups, with consistently poor results at both levels last year; even when he did make contact on changeups, he didn’t do much with them. On defense, he has struggled at shortstop and projects to be average to a tick above at second base, although I could see him improving at the keystone once he plays there consistently. Red Sox president Craig Breslow said they see Grissom as the team’s everyday second baseman in 2024, and I could see a 1.5-2 WAR season from him (Grissom, not Breslow) … but I see some wide error bars around any projection given his issues with ball, strike and changeup recognition."
Link - ( New Window )
exactly and both teams can afford the risks. braves arent paying sale much and he's their 4/5. so all upside. boston gets 6 years of control on a lotto ticket that fits the timeline of a lot of their young cost controlled players. in some ways this was a version of their scherzer trade.
it has been clear since deadline mets would spend to the level they did last year but whats kind of remarkable is how low they are relative to last. only the pads have seen more money cut and that was less by choice than necessity.
alonso's arb estimate is in the cash number but yamamoto's cash is not in lad yet bc the salaries havent been reported. we know of at least $100m cash in signing bonus/posting fee, so the year 1 salary would add to that. but even with ohtani at just $2m cash they are spending already a lot more this year than last.
it is obviously not a given all teams wont change their spending year over year but more are going to be consistent than those with massive swings like SD so i think this chart will end up pretty relevant in terms of fitting the remaining top FAs with landing spots.
Snell to SFG makes a lot of sense for both sides and the $ is there.
maybe hopium pissing into wind given rumors but Montgomery or Imanaga to NYM still seem like too obvious a fit.
BOS another landing spot for either one backfilling sale for a player 4 years younger.
think hader to LAD or NYY would be a great "1 last big piece" but heard LAD is more in market for rh bat (teoscar?) so ill guess NYY for hader. think heyman said that was a possible no yamamoto plan B.
Bellinger seems to be running out of landing spots so i'll guess he goes back to CHC.
Chapman similarly probably goes back to TOR.
$300m cash for mets (which would include the $50m they are retaining with jv/ms/mccann) seems like a good over/under given the number of needs to still left to fill. $20m on a multi-year SP, $10-15m on a couple of 1 year relievers (suter/robertson?), and $15-20m on some veteran every day players like turner/jdm/urshela/taylor would seem like a reasonable "transition" year while remaining competitive.
https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/tax/ - ( New Window )
Chris Cotillo
@ChrisCotillo
According to a baseball source, the Red Sox have told at least one free agent target that they need to shed more payroll before pursuing him as aggressively as they want to.
Baseball America
@BaseballAmerica
#BestofBA2023
We examined how all 30 major league farm systems ranked based on advanced statcast pitching data
For each organization, team-level metrics such as xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) were calculated by aggregating the metrics of each pitcher in the organization, weighted by the number of pitches thrown in 2023 by each pitcher. The xwOBA stat measures how hitters are expected to perform statistically against these pitches based on their batted ball data
The overall Stuff+ number is a blended metric of each organization’s STF+ (based on our internal model), per pitch Run Value, xwOBA, and pitch quality metrics such as in-zone whiff% and chase %. The resultant number was then scaled on a wRC+ scale where 100 is average and a standard deviation is 10 points. In other words, an organization with an overall Stuff+ number of 90 is one standard deviation worse than a league-average organization.
Players between the ages of 17 to 26 years old were included in this study. Any pitcher older than that was eliminated to minimize the impact of older pitchers on rehabilitation stints or older veterans who make up a great deal of the Triple-A pitching staffs. We are trying to view the developing pitching talent in each organization, not the team’s ability to stock quality MiLB free agents into Triple-A bullpens.
We also removed all players who spent the entirety of their season at the complex level. There’s less reliability within the data at that level and its impact on overall performance could cloud the final results.
https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/2023-mlb-farm-system-statcast-pitching-rankings/ - ( New Window )
“ The Mets perform well across all metrics. They rank fourth for in-zone whiff, sixth in chase rate and ninth in xwOBA against. They have some interesting traits under the hood, they rank first in extension, sixth in four-seam fastball xwOBA, third in slider in-zone whiff and fourth in changeup in-zone whiff. They also throw the fourth most amount of sliders of any organization.”
Here are the top five teams in each metric.
In-Zone Whiff Percentage
Rays
Yankees
Dodgers
Mets
Rangers
Chase Percentage
Blue Jays
Yankees
Tigers
Braves
Rays
xWOBA
Rays
Orioles
Yankees
Royals
Giants
@WexlerRules
·
12m
@ZackScottSports
Zack, how true do you think "money talks" is when dealing with FA's? What % of FA's actually take less to join a good team? How transparent are FA's (agents) when they don't find a market appealing? Do players ever actually cite media/fans as deterrents?
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
The overwhelming majority of FAs go to the highest bidder. I don't recall an agent citing media/fans as a deterrent. My sense, for example, was that deGrom preferred a few landing spots and his agent still got a great contract despite those potential limitations.
$ and gets some guy from lad 40 man they may not even have room for.
@WexlerRules
·
12m
@ZackScottSports
Zack, how true do you think "money talks" is when dealing with FA's? What % of FA's actually take less to join a good team? How transparent are FA's (agents) when they don't find a market appealing? Do players ever actually cite media/fans as deterrents?
Zack Scott
@ZackScottSports
The overwhelming majority of FAs go to the highest bidder. I don't recall an agent citing media/fans as a deterrent. My sense, for example, was that deGrom preferred a few landing spots and his agent still got a great contract despite those potential limitations.
This is why Mets have a chance with anyone but especially boras clients and players subject to posting process.
i think I saw Wolfe is now the agent for sasaki, obviously how he comes to mlb is unknown but I think a part of Wolfe keeping that pipeline is that he isn’t leaving $ on table for the teams. He threaded a tricky needle with yamamoto getting to his preferred destination.
@ZackScottSports
·
4m
Replying to
@DVainchenker
@bulkypenguin47
and
@WexlerRules
We had two years of control remaining at a club-friendly luxury tax number. He was seeking a deal that I believed could only be attained as a free agent. Extensions two years in advance of FA typically have some element of risk sharing, but this did not.
lad very confident on a rh hitter (I assume it’s him).
Verified
@Sportsnet
According to industry sources, Joc Pederson is drawing serious interest from the Blue Jays, whose greatest need is offence at this point in the off-season.
Link - ( New Window )
Verified
@Sportsnet
According to industry sources, Joc Pederson is drawing serious interest from the Blue Jays, whose greatest need is offence at this point in the off-season. Link - ( New Window )
Be awesome if they sign Pham too.
I'd actually sign Pham if I were the Mets he was much different than I expected, but he's a better fit on a contender IMO.
There are a handful of every day players left who can help them so value hunting there and waiting out the market is no issue. They could add 2-3 fwar by grabbing 1 or 2 fairly priced veterans for depth.
phi 2nd thanks to nola at 172m
az 3rd with 122m
sfg 4th with 121m
cin 5th with 106m
kc 6th with 105m
st lou 7th with 99m
det 8th with 45m
bos 9th with 39m
atl 10th with 30m
nym 16th with 18m spent
probably $400m left to be spent on the top 3 remaining pitchers. maybe $500m if you add in hader. just 6 weeks from ST and a lot still on the board.
Each Team’s Free Agent Spending Thus Far - ( New Window )
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
The impact on his overall results is quite clear. In his first 11 appearances of the year, prior to introducing the sweeper, he had a 6.61 ERA, 28.9% strikeout rate, 12.5% walk rate, 32.6% ground ball rate and eight home runs in just 32 2/3 innings. The rest of the way, he had a 3.60 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 6.6% walk rate, 44% ground ball rate and six home runs in 85 innings. The Giants gave him four actual starts to finish the year and he posted a 2.25 ERA in those, averaging six innings per start.
This is still a fairly small sample size of results but the change in his arsenal at least gives some reason to believe that it may not just be a fluke. Last month, Driveline tweeted some video of a session with Manaea which showed him also trying out a splitter, perhaps suggesting Manaea is still trying to find yet another gear going forward.
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
I'm a NYY fan just scrolling for baseball content, but enjoy your baseball postings here and on twitter and was curious...
do you really prefer guys like Paxton and Junis to a Mike Cleavinger or Michael Lorenzen?
I'm guessing you're including an expected dollar cost as part of the reason you have those guys where you do, but just something that I've been ruminating on as a fan of NYY who are similarly in need of pitching with the options seemingly dwidling by the week.
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
I’m glad to see you list Imanaga #1. If the price is right, I think he makes a ton of sense for NYM, but I haven’t seen anything linking the Mets to him.
Quote:
My personal top 5 wish list (SP FA edition)
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
I'm a NYY fan just scrolling for baseball content, but enjoy your baseball postings here and on twitter and was curious...
do you really prefer guys like Paxton and Junis to a Mike Cleavinger or Michael Lorenzen?
I'm guessing you're including an expected dollar cost as part of the reason you have those guys where you do, but just something that I've been ruminating on as a fan of NYY who are similarly in need of pitching with the options seemingly dwidling by the week.
In the case of Lorenzen, he was truly awful post trade to the Phillies (people sort of forget about this because he threw a no-hitter) but post trade to the Phillies 5.51 era/5.81 FIP, 5.3 k's/3.8 BB. Over his final 9 appearances....6.98 FIP, 8.01 era. He was so bad, the Phillies opted not to use him in the playoffs. He's about to be 32 (I realize, Paxton is even older) but the upside is extremely limited and the batted ball data wasn't very good.
In the case of Clevinger (33), he has a very poor reputation as a teammate/off the field, poor with the media etc. Just feels like a bad fit for the Mets with a rookie manager in what may be a trying season. They could certainly do worse than Clevinger but 2 TJ's, looking for multiple seasons, 33 years old etc just don't like the fit for the Mets.
Quote:
My personal top 5 wish list (SP FA edition)
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
I’m glad to see you list Imanaga #1. If the price is right, I think he makes a ton of sense for NYM, but I haven’t seen anything linking the Mets to him.
Imanaga's deadline to sign is 1/11. He's reportedly going to be making some visits, so we should have some clarity on the Mets interest soon.
yes it blows. i think in hindsight it may end up because of the dual postings since it seems like nobody is in a rush to deal with boras before imanaga. only 6 weeks until ST and 7 of FG top 12 FA still out there.
2022:
Marte, Scherzer, Bassitt, Otto, etc.
2023:
Senga, Verlander, Robertson, Nimmo extension, Diaz extension (until the WBC at least we could be happy about it)
this year is completely different - and I'm not even unhappy about it. it's just slow and boring.
And I could of wish they'd trade the scrap parts and get closer to the LT to get under it next year and reset.
In fairness, that’s minus nearly 30 million for Alonso (assuming he’s back)
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
With all of the driveline guys they have brought in I’m sure they are considering Manaea. His new sweeper looks like a weapon and now he’s working on a splitter with driveline
-doesn’t expect them to sign JDM… don’t want to block Vientos and Stewart… maybe they should check Stewart’s September and age…he’s not a prospect. If true… going to be a long season.
-doesn’t expect them to sign JDM… don’t want to block Vientos and Stewart… maybe they should check Stewart’s September and age…he’s not a prospect. If true… going to be a long season.
If they’re making FA decisions based on Megill and Peterson, we’re in for a world of hurt. If they’re not good enough, they should be blocked.
Dykstra: We just put him onto the Mets list at No. 30. He will be moving up when we do our update here in a few months. But, Jeremy Rodriguez was one of the younger players in the DSL this year, only turned 17 on the fourth of July. He was moved from the D-backs to the Mets pretty quickly after that in the Tommy Pham deal. What I like about Jeremy Rodriguez is he doesn’t swing and miss very much, at least, for that level and especially for his age. That especially came through after the trade, you know, it was a very small sample, he only played 13 games for the Mets’ DSL affiliate. But in those 13 games he walked 11 times and struck out only four. Showed some good speed too with seven steals. He’s got mostly gap power right now. All the reports we got on him when he first signed with the D-backs for $1.25 million, which was their biggest signing last year, was that power could come for him eventually, it’s mostly to the gaps right now. It’s going to take a while for that to develop, I think. But that fact that he’s making some really interesting swing decisions, he is putting bat on ball – especially relative to his age – it’s a strong start. Could play short, could play second base, we’ll see how he ends up defensively. But, this could end up being, you know, for just a few months of Tommy Pham, a pretty strong pickup for the Mets if he continues on this developmental path.
He did say he was in wait and see mode on Vargas when it comes to hitting better pitching and making an impact. Felt his type advanced approach with less “athletic” guys ends up being just that. Wasn’t really being a hater more the profile
-doesn’t expect them to sign JDM… don’t want to block Vientos and Stewart… maybe they should check Stewart’s September and age…he’s not a prospect. If true… going to be a long season.
Yikes. Maybe Stearns wants a full year to evaluate everyone before he starts to make the big decisions? I don't know that's all I got.
The funny thing is - that doesn’t bother me as much as hearing from a reporter that the Mets don’t want to block Megill or Peterson. Gross. Really hope that’s not true. But I am a little surprised that they don’t want to improve some of the biggest holes on this team. Next year is going to suck…again.
Quote:
with nobody of note due for a big arbitration award and that's with 17.5m retained if JV's option kicks in (so they'd have more room if it doesnt). $ flexibility beyond this year isn't as much of a problem as having enough pitching depth to keep building forward.
In fairness, that’s minus nearly 30 million for Alonso (assuming he’s back)
That assumption hasnt seemed like a foregone conclusion since the deadline and if martino ends up right that severino is their sp3 I’d say it’s probably 50/50 odds they are out of the race and deal Alonso at deadline. And if they deal Alonso why not deal senga too assuming he’ll waive his ntc? He’s about to turn 31.
It looks like martino also said “it’s possible but not probable” they sign imanaga, so I’m going to hold out hope this is a lot of posturing and at minimum they’ll spend a chunk of money on 1 year deals to try to compete.
43. Edward Lantigua, OF, Dominican Republic #Mets
Yea it’s been a bad offseason starting with the draft spot. But we will likely have to take a couple of lumps to let this franchise start to function on an elite level and that includes letting player development catch up.
Hector Gomez says he had the surgery yesterday. Gomez has had incorrect Mauricio information in the past (twice reporting he was promoted when he wasn’t) so grain of salt but it fits the timeline Sammon noted “shortly after new years”
43. Edward Lantigua, OF, Dominican Republic #Mets
I think most are aware of this at this point but these agreement pre-date Stearns and in fact the Mets 2025 class also is via Eppler as well as some 2026/2027 names. 2025 will see the Mets give out their biggest bonus of the IFA pool era.
Yea it’s been a bad offseason starting with the draft spot. But we will likely have to take a couple of lumps to let this franchise start to function on an elite level and that includes letting player development catch up.
A question comes to mind --
If, in fact, the Mets are only $6 Million over the CBT, is it possible to 'extend' a current player under contract by giving him an extra year at.....oh, I don't know....around 6 Mill ?
Sorta like the NFL Contracts ??
For that reason
Tyler Naquin deal
Born: Nov. 7, 2006. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 5-11. Wt.: 180.
Team: Mets
For some scouts, Rodriguez is the top catcher available to sign in 2024 and on par with the elite catchers who have come out of Venezuela in recent years. He’s a true catcher who draws strong reviews for his defense. He has soft hands, a plus arm with a short release and makes accurate throws, cutting his pop times under 1.9 seconds in games on his best throws. Rodriguez has a strong frame with good bat speed and the power to leave the yard now with a chance to develop into a 20-plus home run threat. Scouts highest on Rodriguez felt he was an advanced hitter for his age as well, showing sound strike-zone judgment with good barrel accuracy to help him tap into that power in games.
43. Edward Lantigua, OF, Dominican Republic
Born: Nov. 3, 2006. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-3. Wt.: 170.
Team: Mets
Lantigua has a rangy, athletic frame with high-end strength projection. Early on, Lantigua was a skinny line-drive hitter who showed good bat-to-ball skills with gap power. As he has started to fill out, Lantigua is starting to show more power with what should be significantly more juice still to come, while typically performing well against live pitching. Lantigua is an above-average runner who has a chance to stay in center field. He has the body type where he could still get faster as he gets stronger, though depending on his physical development, if his speed backs up he could move to right field.
cots has it at 296m
(most of that difference is in how much they have mets paying tex/hou for jv/ms and i think the spotrac # is more accurate to the reporting there)
that retained $ is a big chunk of the payroll - scherzer and jv (about 21m each) and mcann (9.5m).
the $230-240m or so on the field is mostly invested in:
Lindor (34m) x 8
Alonso (21m arb est.) x 1
Nimmo (20m) x 7
Marte (20m) x 2
Senga (15m) x 2
Diaz (19m) x 4
Mcneil (10m) x 3
severino and quintana are 13m each x 1 year.
narvaez and raley are 7m each x 1 year.
that's $177m of the $200m total baseball salary on their payroll in 11 players with 20m more beyond that in arbitration estimates for the other half of the active roster.
active roster $200m-$210m,
+50m in retained $,
+20-30m in benefits, minimum salaries and minor league salaries
= total cbt payroll around $280m
carry that all through to next year and they start more than $100m lower losing the retained $50m and Alonso/Severino/Quintana/Narvaez/Raley expiring.
@DanielKimW
Hearing that Woo-suk Go’s deal is for 2 years/4m with a team option for 3rd year.
Tyler Naquin deal
TheUpsideProspect
@UpsideProspect
CIN, OF, Héctor Rodríguez won the LIDOM ROY playing for the Leones del Escogido
🆙 No. 212 prospect | 19 years old
📊 .309/.344/.487 | 3 HR | 4 SB
it should be pretty close too. 175 in 2022, 160ish in 2023. so basically 2 IL trips instead of the 1 last year.
but yes that 17.5m could very well be difference in resetting or not.
1 point on resetting, LAD dropped like crazy last year to reset ahead of their big pursuits this year. they didnt do it. they ended up missing by 30m. and for the next half decade now at least $100m in CBT calc is tied up in 3 players (ohtani, yamamoto, glasnow). so maybe resetting isnt as important as we think. the penalties get harsher but if you stay out of the cohen tax they arent that bad. LAD paid 19m in penalties to be $30m over.
remember each year cohen has been here there's been a ton of $ not on the field. cano, mccann, jdg, thor, now jv/ms. next year they should start pretty fresh.
the net/net on it is that resetting is a nice benefit if you can take it but as long as you stay out of the cohen tax it's also not that penalizing. so it is not worth wasting a season to do it. only if it makes sense with the cycle of your roster. or if mandated by owner's finances.
cots has it at 296m
(most of that difference is in how much they have mets paying tex/hou for jv/ms and i think the spotrac # is more accurate to the reporting there)
that retained $ is a big chunk of the payroll - scherzer and jv (about 21m each) and mcann (9.5m).
the $230-240m or so on the field is mostly invested in:
Lindor (34m) x 8
Alonso (21m arb est.) x 1
Nimmo (20m) x 7
Marte (20m) x 2
Senga (15m) x 2
Diaz (19m) x 4
Mcneil (10m) x 3
severino and quintana are 13m each x 1 year.
narvaez and raley are 7m each x 1 year.
that's $177m of the $200m total baseball salary on their payroll in 11 players with 20m more beyond that in arbitration estimates for the other half of the active roster.
active roster $200m-$210m,
+50m in retained $,
+20-30m in benefits, minimum salaries and minor league salaries
= total cbt payroll around $280m
carry that all through to next year and they start more than $100m lower losing the retained $50m and Alonso/Severino/Quintana/Narvaez/Raley expiring.
Fangraphs has them at estimated $297,530,000 for their luxury tax payroll in 2024, 156.9 for 2025 FWIW
1. Imanaga
2. Rodriguez
3. Manaea
4. Paxton
5.Junis
Ideal world @mets add 2 of these guys. Doesn't appear they are "in" on Rodriguez and Junis would be a speculative "shot to start headed into ST out of ST, or move to BP" #Mets
Manaea and Junis. Thanks.
- @mets and PHI are 2 teams that *could* pivot toward Montgomery/Snell if the market makes sense (I don't personally see it)
-1 12 teams he mentions looking for OF/DH help
-*Could* be involved with Imanaga #Mets
middle relievers who can close are one of the deadline's most valuable commodities.
if he's healthy I can't see it having much risk, but may require an overpay otherwise why would he come to Queens - not much chance to win or to close, but he could be practically guaranteed appearances.
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
·
43s
The Milwaukee Brewers are acquiring left-hander Bryan Hudson in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to sources familiar with the deal.
@JonPgh
Rookie SP Sleepers to Watch
Query:
✅100+ IP between A+ and AAA in 2023
✅ K-BB% above 20%
1. Drew Thorpe SDP (140 IP, 26.9% K-BB%)
2. Isaac Coffey BOS (118 IP, 24.8% K-BB%)
3. Chase Hampton NYY (107 IP, 24.7% K-BB%)
4. Tobias Myers MIL (141 IP, 21.6% K-BB%)
5. Dominic Hamel NYM(124 IP, 21.1% K-BB%)
@JonPgh
Rookie SP Sleepers to Watch
Query:
✅100+ IP between A+ and AAA in 2023
✅ K-BB% above 20%
1. Drew Thorpe SDP (140 IP, 26.9% K-BB%)
2. Isaac Coffey BOS (118 IP, 24.8% K-BB%)
3. Chase Hampton NYY (107 IP, 24.7% K-BB%)
4. Tobias Myers MIL (141 IP, 21.6% K-BB%)
5. Dominic Hamel NYM(124 IP, 21.1% K-BB%)
Finished the year VERY strong. Final 12 starts 58.2 innings 46 hits 25 walks (admittedly still too high) 80 k's 2.63 era
not quite my guy but to be fair nobody has seen them doing anything they've done so far. there were some mentions they liked severino in the weeks before he was signed but when they signed him even martino said he was surprised. maybe missed it but i hadnt seen any beats connect them with houser.
martino mentioned imanaga yesterday and described it as "possible but wouldnt call it probable" and i think that framing probably works for almost every free agent we've heard them connected to. i think this stage at FA is waiting out value. for the players left if there were team aggressively after them they would have been signed already (with the possible exception of imanaga since he's in posting process).
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
·
43s
The Milwaukee Brewers are acquiring left-hander Bryan Hudson in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to sources familiar with the deal.
LAD lands a HS arm that signed for WAY over slot (547,000) + a PTNL, so one can conclude the interest in Hudson was significant
Quote:
was on my wishlist once he was DFA'ed
Robert Murray
@ByRobertMurray
·
43s
The Milwaukee Brewers are acquiring left-hander Bryan Hudson in a trade with the Los Angeles Dodgers, according to sources familiar with the deal.
LAD lands a HS arm that signed for WAY over slot (547,000) + a PTNL, so one can conclude the interest in Hudson was significant
Martino mentioned yesterday Stearns was very active on P trade market ("guys like houser"). not sure this would have qualified.
Quote:
I assume because they needed swelling to go down? But per @WillSammon Ronny Mauricio has yet to undergo surgery to repair his ACL but that sounds imminent.
Hector Gomez says he had the surgery yesterday. Gomez has had incorrect Mauricio information in the past (twice reporting he was promoted when he wasn’t) so grain of salt but it fits the timeline Sammon noted “shortly after new years”
Healey confirming. Sounds unlikely we see Mauricio in 2024. They are giving an 8-12 month timeline.
David Gasper
@dgasper24
I know I'm a prospect hugger, but...
Shipping out Chambers, who signed the largest bonus of any of the Day 3 picks last year, for a guy who was DFAed, plus potentially another PTBNL, feels like an overpay
I like Hudson, he can be a good 'pen addition, but the value feels off
Keegan Matheson
@KeeganMatheson
Kevin Kiermaier tells us that he didn't receive interest from as many teams as he and his agents expected in free agency, with some teams viewing him in a part-time role.
"All I need is one team interested, and I am so thankful and grateful the #BlueJays were that team."
at the MLB level? that is a little ambitious IMO.
today, who is it?
Senga, Quintana, Severino, Houser, Megill/Butto?
Quote:
rotation ranked #23 by Fangraphs
at the MLB level? that is a little ambitious IMO.
today, who is it?
Senga, Quintana, Severino, Houser, Megill/Butto?
Yup. That's their current rotation on paper
this is a handy resource for all the positions - they have braves as best team in MLB by last year's fwar with 54, only them LAD over 50. 8 teams 40+ (counting BAL at 39.9). Mets at 38 so if they sign 1 of the 3 SP projected over 3 wins they are basically tied with PHI. still 100 fwar available in FA.
https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team - ( New Window )
sign Michael A. Taylor (yes, despite Tyrone Taylor) and Gio Urshela and really lean into a "much improved" defensive team vs. adding a "big" bat
sign Michael A. Taylor (yes, despite Tyrone Taylor) and Gio Urshela and really lean into a "much improved" defensive team vs. adding a "big" bat
i can 100% see taylor. they are down 1 starting OF right now even before the unknown of marte. taylor and stewart can maybe be an ok marte backup plan, but they still need a starter.
nimmo in LF + taylor in CF improve the defense immeasurably. if Taylor also hits a little great.
Quote:
I predict @mets
sign Michael A. Taylor (yes, despite Tyrone Taylor) and Gio Urshela and really lean into a "much improved" defensive team vs. adding a "big" bat
i can 100% see taylor. they are down 1 starting OF right now even before the unknown of marte. taylor and stewart can maybe be an ok marte backup plan, but they still need a starter.
nimmo in LF + taylor in CF improve the defense immeasurably. if Taylor also hits a little great.
If Kiermaier struggled to find many teams offering him "regular" role then you'd have to guess Taylor is going to find similar. Kiermaier is probably the superior player (he is a year older). They would be loco to rely on Stewart. He had *1* outstanding month (and a horrid September) and is a poor fielder. He's fine as a player in the mix but he can't be the backup plan for Marte being injured or 2023 Marte.
@mikemayer22
Starling Marte is batting second and playing right field tonight in his first winter ball action of the season for the Leones del Escogido.
taylor = 1.5 x 11.5m (7.7 median aav)
bader = 1x10.5m
so yeah i think it's likely the other 2 end up lower $ than kk, and likely lesser roles too (not full time starters).
i think they are 1 year only from here out, with the only exceptions being if 1 of the top remaining SP fits their value. or if they do something creative with woodruff which is really a discounted 1 year deal for next year by missing this year (and getting paid).
i would guess that their offer to giolito was a true 1 year but perhaps with more $ this year.
Typically there would be some substantial news warranting a new thread over this particular 1 month period in the offseason... lol
In fairness it’s coming from multiple writers. Sammon and Puma both mentioned him by name and now Mike Mayer
it sure seems Story is cooked, and Anthony at 19 has risk all over him, but that is the kind of transaction I'd be looking at to rebuild.
And I'm not sure if this kind of thing is allowed but I'd make it really attractive to Story to opt out after 2025. I'd offer a $0 contract with 10M deferred so it doesn't count on the Luxury tax - some kind of creative buyout.
it sure seems Story is cooked, and Anthony at 19 has risk all over him, but that is the kind of transaction I'd be looking at to rebuild.
And I'm not sure if this kind of thing is allowed but I'd make it really attractive to Story to opt out after 2025. I'd offer a $0 contract with 10M deferred so it doesn't count on the Luxury tax - some kind of creative buyout.
Without thinking twice. Anthony will be a top 5-10 prospect in baseball at this time next season. Quote me (*barring injury)
Quote:
offer Trevor Story for Alonso, but they throw in Roman Anthony, do you do it?
it sure seems Story is cooked, and Anthony at 19 has risk all over him, but that is the kind of transaction I'd be looking at to rebuild.
And I'm not sure if this kind of thing is allowed but I'd make it really attractive to Story to opt out after 2025. I'd offer a $0 contract with 10M deferred so it doesn't count on the Luxury tax - some kind of creative buyout.
Without thinking twice. Anthony will be a top 5-10 prospect in baseball at this time next season. Quote me (*barring injury)
Would the Sox do it to shed salary? or is Anthony to highly regarded. I'd say Marcelo Mayer but here in Boston he's the next Nomar.
-interesting (maybe just to me). Demarlo Hale is the Gibbons/Mendoza connections (Hale is friends with both) and Mendoza went to Stearns with the r commendation. So he didn’t have Gibbons forced upon him at all.
He will earn $18 million this season.
He will earn $22 million in 2025.
@RotoClegg
Atlanta wastes no time signing Chris Sale to an extension. He will make $16 million in 2024 and the Red Sox sent $17 mil over in the trade. The salary does jump to $22 mil in 2025 and there is a club option for 2026.
a 65 grade minor leaguer would be the #1 player in minors because there are none of them goes up to being valued at $62m, so that is roughly how under water Story's contract is, though i think the red sox (and most other teams) would suffer the $ pain of affording 1 less giolito signing for the next 4 years before cutting off their nose to spite their face.
i dont think other teams are going to value alonso as a deal breaker right now given he's likely going to UFA with boras next year. at the deadline as a 'final piece' i think you should be able to get a fringe top 50 gilbert or acuna from a contender looking to go for it.
i say we protest and stay in this thread until they sign someone and then we make that the new thread.
nothing groundbreaking here but this is from feinsand and his guess on imanaga is mets.
Based on conversations with executives and other industry types, I’m not sure that strong favorites have emerged yet for any of the three. Predicting these things never seems to go well, but if I had to guess right now (which apparently I do), I would say Imanaga signs with the Mets, Montgomery reunites with the Yankees and Snell signs with the Angels … or Giants.
also has them connected to 2/3 sp (i assume montgomery the other):
Snell, Monty, Imanaga: Who signs first? Where will each pitcher land? - ( New Window )
Hey Dan - what goes into making these projections? They seem so arbitrary. Blake Snell, who just won the CY (his second), is projected for a big jump in ERA. But Spencer Strider with only two years of experience is projected to have a much improved ERA? I was just curious.