2 years ago bellinger was pick #112 and #84 on daniel jeremiah's big board. theo johnson was #107 and #82 so pretty much same. Bellinger was 21 years old and like theo johnson wasnt utilized much in college so he only had 31 catches for 350 yards and 2 tds his final year at SDSU.
Johnson is already 23 years old, so he is entering the nfl older than bellinger and similarly only caught 34 balls for 341 yards at PSU, though he did have 7 TDs.
both were great testers, which is usually telling at the te position since colleges use the position much differently than the pros. bellinger dropped fewer balls and had better movement skills, johnson more explosive and bigger.
hard for me to say which was the better prospect coming out, which is hopefully a good sign for Johnson because Bellinger has been a pretty good pick. they also appear to have nicely complimentary skill sets with bellinger probably better in the intermediate range and johnson more of a downfield weapon.
BRIAN DABOLL: I’ve been very happy with them. Very organized. Detailed. They have done a good job. Shane (Bowen) has done a great job leading his group. Very organized, and then Ghoby is full of energy out here, running around. We brought Cam (Achord) over from New England, he was special teams coordinator, he's been a good addition. Chuck, Charlie Bullen, has been a really good addition. TK, Tim Kelly, Carm (Briscillo). Again, we are out here, we've been out here for phase two. This will be the second day of rookie camp which is good. Be good to get out here for phase three and really get some good practices in.
i dont think he regressed as much as you think, his role shrank and i think since waller was playing the receiving TE spot, Bellinger ended up doing more dirty work.
there were only 3 incompletions on balls thrown his way all year, and he actually added more than 1 yard per catch. so even though he got 7 fewer targets, his yardage was almost the same.
55 catches out of 63 targets the last 2 years is an absurd 88% catch rate, and may be the best of any TE/WR in football over the last 2 years with more than 50 catches.
Bellinger hasn't been the same since the eye injury. I wonder if there is permanent damage that is affecting his play.
1st in 2023
so whether it's just really good hands or an ability to get open underneath there's a good argument they should be throwing to him more.
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Daniel Bellinger's regression last year was very unexpected. I hope he bounces back under the new TE Coach (Tim Kelly, who was the OC in Houston and Tennessee).
Bellinger hasn't been the same since the eye injury. I wonder if there is permanent damage that is affecting his play.
That's actually a very good question, unfortunately.
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Daniel Bellinger's regression last year was very unexpected. I hope he bounces back under the new TE Coach (Tim Kelly, who was the OC in Houston and Tennessee).
Bellinger hasn't been the same since the eye injury. I wonder if there is permanent damage that is affecting his play.
Didn’t he go with a visor afterwards? Maybe that’s hampered him but understandable he uses it since it protects his eye
His blocking got worse to me.
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Daniel Bellinger's regression last year was very unexpected. I hope he bounces back under the new TE Coach (Tim Kelly, who was the OC in Houston and Tennessee).
Bellinger hasn't been the same since the eye injury. I wonder if there is permanent damage that is affecting his play.
dont see that at all in his stat lines. his best game pre-eye injury was 4 receptions for 40 yards against dallas. after he came back his catch rate remained just as good as prior and had some good games (including a 4 for 43). he played in 7 total games after the eye injury, in 5 of them he caught 100% of the targets through his way. his first game back he was 5/5 for 24 yards.
this season he didnt get a lot of action in a lot of games waller was healthy, but in the 7 or so games he got when Waller was banged up he went over 38 yards in 4 of them and had several 20+ yard plays. he only had 1 20 yard play pre-eye injury, he had 4 this year in limited playing time.
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In comment 16512421 Eric from BBI said:
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Daniel Bellinger's regression last year was very unexpected. I hope he bounces back under the new TE Coach (Tim Kelly, who was the OC in Houston and Tennessee).
Bellinger hasn't been the same since the eye injury. I wonder if there is permanent damage that is affecting his play.
dont see that at all in his stat lines. his best game pre-eye injury was 4 receptions for 40 yards against dallas. after he came back his catch rate remained just as good as prior and had some good games (including a 4 for 43). he played in 7 total games after the eye injury, in 5 of them he caught 100% of the targets through his way. his first game back he was 5/5 for 24 yards.
this season he didnt get a lot of action in a lot of games waller was healthy, but in the 7 or so games he got when Waller was banged up he went over 38 yards in 4 of them and had several 20+ yard plays. he only had 1 20 yard play pre-eye injury, he had 4 this year in limited playing time.
I'm talking about hia blocking. He was known as a good blocker with untapped potential as a receiver when he came in. He was playing really freakin well before the injury. After the eye injury, his blocking got worse to me. Just my two cents.
i think this is a case of relativity.
he looked like one of the best parts of the offense relative to the receivers when david sills, kenny golladay, marcus johnson were starting.
with similar statlines he didnt stand out as much relative to hodgins, slayton, james when they were playing really well. he looked like more of a complimentary piece (which is probably what he is).
if he catches his next 63 NFL targets the same as he did his first 63, that's 55 for 523 yards and very much the type of role fits the role daboll had dawson knox in in buffalo. his best year was 72 targets/49 receptions for 587 yards and 9 tds.
considering the $ and injuries, i'd save the $11-12m on waller and just do that.
someone posted this pic from all 3 draft classes and if you use schoen as your scale, johnson looks enormous even compared to riley.
I'm talking about hia blocking. He was known as a good blocker with untapped potential as a receiver when he came in. He was playing really freakin well before the injury. After the eye injury, his blocking got worse to me. Just my two cents.
that could be - i remember some good blocks from him when the run game was clicking first half 2022 and havent noticed much since, but the run game in general hasnt really clicked since then so not sure how much that's just us not having highlight plays to take note of.
i would think the biggest impact from an eye issue would be catching since that's all hand eye, and his catching seems just as good.
Really think they totally screwed the pooch w TE last year. Waller should have been additive. Instead he was invisible even when not hurt and it seems they shelved Bellinger's place in the O. Some of the blame needs to be on Kafka and Daboll for putting too many hopes on an always injured guy at the expense of a guy who was productive considering how shitty the passing game is in general
Daboll looks great.
Hopefully he rebounds this year. Last year may have also been Waller's presence, Waller's presence to the game play that relegated Bellinger to a different role. We had other TE's on the team with Waller and in place of him while he was out who were Waller like- can't block, thinner taller receiving TE's, thus Bellinger was relegated to that newer block first, third or 4th receiving option role.
Looking at Johnson, he’s a more linear player. Higher top end speed, faster down the seam and I think you’ll see him used more to stretch the field (like they tried to with Waller).
One thing worth noting, when it comes to TE’s who are frequently tasked with making contested catches, being 1.5 inches taller with slightly longer arms and a 5” higher vertical is a massive advantage. I really hope we find a way to unlock Johnson as a jump ball/redzone threat.
so he did a lot of blocking and was willing. i dont think his scouting report was ever that he was any kind of crushing blocker, just that he did a lot of it when most athletic TEs coming out of college do very little.
i think willing blocker has been the best description as a pro. he threw the occasional good block but has mostly been unnoticeable. being 'unnoticeable' as a blocker the last 2 years might mean he was the 2nd best blocker on the roster behind andrew thomas.
the biggest thing that has been notable about him is the hands. he didnt drop a ball in his senior year of college and through 2 years he has yet to drop a ball in the pros. he is very sure handed and has some decent movement skills for a TE (remember that end around?). i assume chris manhertz was signed to block.
A lot of potential there IF they can unlock it. He didn't show that in college.
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Sy think he has most potential of all TEs drafted this year, Bowers included.
A lot of potential there IF they can unlock it. He didn't show that in college.
i've been generally skeptical of his upside because as a route runner i dont see much, but catching up on more of him he does look a lot like jimmy graham did at UM. graham was less experienced which if anything gave him more upside (and downside) but in his 1 year at UM jimmy graham looked a lot like johnson looked. just a bigger athlete than everyone else and coordinated at the catch point.
i think in a worst case as a prospect he seems like jelani woods a few years ago, and his size/athleticism played in the NFL right away.
im not betting on either being an all pro but i think johnson and bellinger are both interesting players who compliment each other really nicely.
i could easily see bellinger being a jake ferguson type if he got that kind of opportunity, with johnson a more explosive compliment.
ferguson caught 71 of 96 targets last year for 761 yards and 7 tds, with 5 drops. averaged 10.7 ypc. if bellinger got 90 targets in a year id take the over on 70 catches and the under on 5 drops.
your wr thread had me rewatching wandale last year, they used him out of the backfield a good amount. he is sort of a 4th RB.
your wr thread had me rewatching wandale last year, they used him out of the backfield a good amount. he is sort of a 4th RB.
LOL that's exactly where I was going and trying to hunt down how many snaps he took in the backfield. But I certainly would want him taking on many primary pass pro assignments.
Maybe there's an open competition between Stoll and Manhertz for one spot. But I take the emphasis loud and clear they are intent on improving the overall blocking profile of the team.
stoll seems a little more like a bear pascoe lawrence cager fringe roster player.
if waller retires as expected though it's possible all 4 make it. stoll has played 200+ special teams reps per year, so if he hangs on the 53 it may reduce the need for someone like boykin.
pff says wandale only played 11 snaps in the backfield. he also had 9 carries, most of which i think were motion not backfield. he did pass protect at all so when he was back there it was to run routes as an extra wr on the field.
net/net at this point id bet on 4th TE more than 4th RB.
I've also mentally allocated 130+ targets to Nabers. Health permitting he better the centerpiece of the offense.
I don't expect the TEs to feature prominently in the pass game. I'd bet the under at 60 targets to TEs total.
this links to the 2:00 mark where he actually snaps off a nice route but yeah 90% of his highlights are just go routes or seams. id imagine rookie year he will get 5-10 snaps a game and most of them will be straight line.
https://youtu.be/nnAnmij161g?si=2bQzciieATG6dSBa&t=120 - ( New Window )
I've also mentally allocated 130+ targets to Nabers. Health permitting he better the centerpiece of the offense.
I don't expect the TEs to feature prominently in the pass game. I'd bet the under at 60 targets to TEs total.
they had like 75 targets to TEs in 2022. id take the over on 60 but not by much. 3 per game to bellinger is almost 60, 1 per game to theo gets you to about 80. obviously wont be that straightforward but this is going to be close to a 60% passing offense probably, if that's the case they are going to get close to 600 targets.
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I keep forgetting Waller is on the roster. I've already filed his papers mentally.
Why is he? FO is treating like egg shells. I get the human side of the game, but his acknowledged Hamlet soul searching can’t inspire confidence in keeping him on, never mind the cap constraint. Is he still officially injured?
a few years ago logan ryan filed an injury grievance that they cut (in March) him due to an injury, and he won that even though i dont even think he missed time for the injury during the season.
if waller wants to retire, and he does have some kind of nerve issue impacting his performance, he is probably hoping he gets cut so he can try to file an injury grievance. which even if he loses could tie up cap space for a year like logan ryans did while the league was processing the grievance.
if he shows up and passes a physical at training camp, i think they can cut him and there's no grievance.
or obviously if he decides to retire on his own.
i think they are calling his bluff and basically saying "cant wait to see you in camp!"
As for Stoll and Manhertz, I'd prefer the younger guy. He also graded wonderfully as a blocker.
"He is not much of a pass catcher, but Stoll has caught 20 of 27 pass targets for 183 yards and had no touchdowns over his career. Stoll has logged 112 pass-blocking snaps as a blocker, allowing just two pressures (zero sacks) for a 98.6 pass-blocking efficient rating."
I am curious if they make some scheme adjustments with the other blocking TE's they brought in.
RE: Waller. I think the right football and human thing to do for a recovering addict with an OD in his past, is to let it play out on his timeline if he's got personal issues at play (in addition to any lingering/chronic issues with his hamstring). The cap implications for cut/retirement/reserve list are all the same. And their actions indicate they're replacing him. I think there is a 0% chance he's a Giant in 2024.
I agree with you 2022 is the better baseline. They had ~1100 snaps, ~70% in 11 personnel, but closer to ~80% as the receiving unit stabilized down the stretch.
The receivers group is the strength of the offense on paper/investment profile. My guess is they are in 11 75% of the time, and when they are in 12, they are running the ball a lot. So I don't think there will be nearly as many routes ran by TEs this year.
Bellinger, as you pointed out above was really the same guy YoY in the receiving game. Blocking:
2022: 61.5 PFF run-blocking grade and a 52.1 pass-blocking grade
2023: 58.1 PFF run-blocking grade and a 72.3 pass-blocking grade
So over all a better blocking performance in 2023.