I don't follow the free agents unless someone writes the up on BBI. And, I don't have a take on this except that somebody thinks it was a mistake. I guess we will see.
and probably a voice in why he wasn't re-signed elier with them. He knows more about his game than any fan. $110M on another Dt would have been huge, from the outside I trust him as an ideal source, I'm sure they looked into it.
Rosetti wasn't with the Dolphins last year, when Wilkins broke out. But it's a bit of a specific knock on a guy to get wrong. It's one thing to say he's not a premium player, but to focus in on 3rd and whiff is silly.
Rosetti wasn't with the Dolphins last year, when Wilkins broke out. But it's a bit of a specific knock on a guy to get wrong. It's one thing to say he's not a premium player, but to focus in on 3rd and whiff is silly.
Is it wrong though? He had 61 total pressures, 27 pressures on 3rd down last year. Here are his numbers for the rest of his career.
despite what a few posters insinuated, I thought Rosetti came off very well.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Yeah, could have put more thought into the thread title - it is never good to get called out though. On the draft, the hope would be that some of the reason the draftees have not developed is the need for better coaching, and that the coaching turnover will imorove just put in thread title
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
Yeah, I could have spent more time on the thread title, but it is not good to be called out on multiple publications. As far as drafting goes, the hope would be that the coaching turnover will improve young player development.
Teams dont evaluate off just the last year. They evaluate the totality of the career and how they think that player fits into their roster. The Giants need FAR more help at the edge position. Its not prudent for them to spend BIG money at the DT position when they already have one of the BEST DTs in all of football.
despite what a few posters insinuated, I thought Rosetti came off very well.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
With the likes of McCloud, Pinnock and Cager, now we know why the Giants have been a scrap heap. Perhaps it's just been a bit better of a scrap heap than in previous years, that has some fans thinking mcclouded. 2024 will tell if they can rise above the scrap heap, known as about 26 of 32 NFL teams.
Wow our HardKnocks show is gonna tick off a lot of
Both were first round picks out of Clemson in the same year. I think they were generally regarded as twin tackles when they were drafted. Wilkins was drafted 13, Lawrence was 17th.
The numbers are comparable, but they played in different defenses and were asked to do different things. Remember Lawrence played out of position as a DE for a few seasons. When he was switched to NT, he became unstoppable.
It would be interesting to see Wilkins and Lawrence playing together but that might be a poor allocation of resources and cap space. Lawrence needs to be beside a complementary tackle - not a duplicate.
And look at in a year. Not cause of Rosetti - his opinion is well founded, right or wrong. Maybe Wilkins will blow up this season and proven him wrong, and that last season's underlying stats predictive. Or not.
Either way I feel a shit-ton better about Burns for $85 million guaranteed dollars than Wilkins for the same money.
Rosetti came across well, and actually was seemingly the only one in that entire room that predicted Barkley would get a lot of money, from a team that had money to spend.
Burns fits the profile they want more, and that's very understandable. This is a group who traded Leonard Williams and also drafted Thibs 5th overall. It very much seems like they want to create pressure from the edges.
I don't think judging IDLs on sack counts is very instructive. Lawrence didn't break out until his 4th year, Wilkins didn't until his 5th year and they both only have one season over 4.5 sacks.
My only point is Wilkins did in fact have a strong year on 3rd down, and Rosetti's assessment didn't seem to account for that.
Now, if it's a matter of consistency or fear he can't repeat the performance, that's probably a more important and better point.
Rate might be a better indicator of judging these types of players, anyway, rather than sacks or pure pressure count. But there's also double team rates, and scheme.
Thibodeaux had 11.5 sacks but his win rate was 6.4%. Aidan Hutchinson had the same number of sacks but his pressures dwarfed Kayvon's and his win rate was 21.3%.
I do hope Kayvon improves because the sack number never told the story. We have been down this road recently with Azeez Ojulari's rookie campaign and the Markus Golden season of 10 sacks. Advanced stats showed they lacked consistency - you just hope coaching and health allows the player to keep building and improving.
Rate might be a better indicator of judging these types of players, anyway, rather than sacks or pure pressure count. But there's also double team rates, and scheme.
Thibodeaux had 11.5 sacks but his win rate was 6.4%. Aidan Hutchinson had the same number of sacks but his pressures dwarfed Kayvon's and his win rate was 21.3%.
I do hope Kayvon improves because the sack number never told the story. We have been down this road recently with Azeez Ojulari's rookie campaign and the Markus Golden season of 10 sacks. Advanced stats showed they lacked consistency - you just hope coaching and health allows the player to keep building and improving.
Having someone on the other side will help..
Actually working with Patterson will help..
Working with Burns who has more time in the league should help...
those meetings going player by player were likely days long and 2-3-4 hour sessions. how do we know he didnt at some point before that 10 seconds say "wilkins had a big year this past year, but overall for his career he hasnt replicated that so it was probably statistically likely to continue".
rossetti's job description and information access isn't limited to looking up the most recent stats, he and a full team of people are watching/grading every rep.
i am a very big wilkins fans going back to that clemson team w/ dex and he has always been a complete player but not standout in any one area. he is a better version of tomlinson - who is also a very good player who has now made a lot of money playing well for a lot of good defenses but without impacting 3rd downs much.
I think having Jihad Ward opposite him and playing in Wink's scheme skews things a bit. We will get a real feel of what type of player he is, and can be, now.
those meetings going player by player were likely days long and 2-3-4 hour sessions. how do we know he didnt at some point before that 10 seconds say "wilkins had a big year this past year, but overall for his career he hasnt replicated that so it was probably statistically likely to continue".
We don't know that. All we know is what was shown and reported.
It's not some tragic oversight or credibility eroding POV. It's just a minor, silly mistake that someone pointed out.
In comment 16548601 Peter from NH (formerly CT) said:
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For SI (I thought they were gone) focused on the Raiders say so? Whatever.
I think it's more that Wilkins had a good year on third down.
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As USA Today's Doug Farrar pointed out, Wilkins had 27 third-down pressures in 2023 -- tied for second in the NFL amongst interior linemen. Only Quinnen Williams (30) had more, as Wilkins was tied with Chris Jones and DeForest Buckner.
...
Wilkins had 5.5 sacks on third down in addition to those 27 pressures, a pressure rate of 19.0%. He was actually tied for seventh amongst defensive linemen who line up in a three-point stance in sacks on third down (5.5), Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
those meetings going player by player were likely days long and 2-3-4 hour sessions. how do we know he didnt at some point before that 10 seconds say "wilkins had a big year this past year, but overall for his career he hasnt replicated that so it was probably statistically likely to continue".
We don't know that. All we know is what was shown and reported.
It's not some tragic oversight or credibility eroding POV. It's just a minor, silly mistake that someone pointed out.
it is not "reporting" that they had in depth conversations about top free agents nor should it be surprising that they discussed the pros/cons of those players. it would be reporting that if they didnt because it means they werent doing their jobs.
it's a condensed show intentionally made to be as compelling/provocative/interesting as possible. the job of the show/producers is to be as entertaining as possible, it is only their job to be accurate and nuanced to the extent that the team doesn't veto something.
beyond that his quote is basically the same as any scouting report on him since clemson.
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“This is Dexter’s best friend,” Rossetti said. “I don’t think he’s a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.” He would go on to clarify, though, that he was still a very good football player.
the content of what he said is only a "mistake" if you know nothing of the player except a few cherry picked stats from last year. miami was the 3rd best pass rush team in the nfl which likely benefited wilkins statistically even though he wasn't close to their top individual pass rusher. of their main guys he actually had the lowest pressure rates/pass rush grades. forgetting chubb, phillips, van ginkel, ogbah even their other IDL actually had 1 more sack and 13 more pressures than he did.
the only new piece of information "reported" was that Dex' text to schoen indicates he may have been working things with Wilkins behind the scenes and that perhaps Wilkins was open to coming here. that was speculated about at the time but i dont recall seeing it specifically reported anywhere.
Simple yes or no question -- did Wilkins play well as a pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
nice try but that's not what rossetti said. reread the quote. the exact sound bite everyone is choosing to nitpick was "difference making pass rusher" and in the context of his position wilkins isn't and has never been on the level of someone like chris jones - who rossetti was correctly waxing poetic on in the same segment bc that is what an actual difference making pass rusher looks like.
statistically he hasnt even been all that close to the pass rusher leonard williams has been over the last half decade, and most of this board spent that half decade complaining that he was overpaid/overrated, often despite statistical production, bc he wasn't a "difference maker". in the last 5 seasons williams had 33 sacks to wilkins 24 and correspondingly almost 150% the number of pressures (242 to 167) and better win rates on true pass sets which are the better measure of pass rush ability.
I'm asking you a simple yes or no question, do you believe he was a good pass rusher on third down last year?
search any posts ive made about wilkins in the last 6+ years and you will see i have believed he is a very good player, pass rush included, going back to his time at clemson.
not sure what's so hard to understand about that coexisting with what rossetti said as both being pretty obvious statements of reality (and literally almost exactly what he said verbatim).
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“This is Dexter’s best friend,” Rossetti said. “I don’t think he’s a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.” He would go on to clarify, though, that he was still a very good football player.
Eric -- I'm not sure how you or Rosetti define difference making. From my vantage point quarterback pressures and sacks are two good ways to measure pass rush effectiveness. I don't think those are cherry picked.
And when a player rates near the top of his position group at the two output counting stats, I'm very comfortable believing that is difference making.
For the 2023 season on its own, I think what Rosetti said is silly.
One good season in a contract year did not make Leonard Williams a difference maker on third down and it won't make Wilkins one either. If we were going to use that cap space on a good not great DT, we should have kept Williams instead.
And look at in a year. Not cause of Rosetti - his opinion is well founded, right or wrong. Maybe Wilkins will blow up this season and proven him wrong, and that last season's underlying stats predictive. Or not.
Either way I feel a shit-ton better about Burns for $85 million guaranteed dollars than Wilkins for the same money.
This. In college you might have two or three of these guys on you DL. Not possible to pay two DTs top dollar in the NFL. And we needed Burns and pressure from the ER position. And this is his position for the Giants and their needs. It that he’s not worth it or a bad player. People want to crest drama and clicks
Eric -- I'm not sure how you or Rosetti define difference making.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor. i view difference makers as the elite players like chris jones who do everything rossetti described chris jones as being able to do so from that i suppose he feels similarly. players whose presence is felt on the field every snap bc they command extra attention every play from the other team and still post elite production. aaron donald, dexter lawrence, chris jones. tyreek hill, justin jefferson, ceedee lamb, travis kelce, nick bosa, parsons, myles garrett etc.
they are the guys who almost always get extended early or franchise tagged and almost never hit unrestricted free agency in their primes because even if a team has cap troubles they have trade value.
i love brian burns - who got tagged unlike wilkins the cost more in both $ and picks - and id similarly consider him more 'next tier down' than parsons/bosa level difference maker, though if you specifically want "difference making 3rd down pass rush", that's his absolute best skill. wilkins biggest value is a high floor every down player.
that pays premium money for two DTs. The Giants just need a decent DT alongside DL.
It is unusual - but the Commanders do
I agree with other that acquiring Burns was definitely a better move than signing Wilkins. definitely a better move than signing Wilkins, though, if they could have somehow signed Chris Jones, that would’ve been my ideal.
Eric -- I'm not sure how you or Rosetti define difference making.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor.
You're too funny man. No charts, tables, or MS Paint drawings required in my world to determine a guy who tied for 2nd among IDLs in pressures on 3rd down, is in fact a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.
Eric -- I'm not sure how you or Rosetti define difference making.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor.
You're too funny man. No charts, tables, or MS Paint drawings required in my world to determine a guy who tied for 2nd among IDLs in pressures on 3rd down, is in fact a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.
what's too funny is this new commitment to 1 single season stat being absolutely determinative absent any context. id imagine that will last as long as the next argument where that methodology doesn't hold up...which will be whatever the next argument is.
Eric -- I'm not sure how you or Rosetti define difference making.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor.
You're too funny man. No charts, tables, or MS Paint drawings required in my world to determine a guy who tied for 2nd among IDLs in pressures on 3rd down, is in fact a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.
what's too funny is this new commitment to 1 single season stat being absolutely determinative absent any context. id imagine that will last as long as the next argument where that methodology doesn't hold up...which will be whatever the next argument is.
And I look forward to you not using pressures or sacks as a way to judge pass rushers in the future, since according to you they are just a "few cherry picked stats."
what's too funny is this new commitment to 1 single season stat being absolutely determinative absent any context. id imagine that will last as long as the next argument where that methodology doesn't hold up...which will be whatever the next argument is.
And I look forward to you not using pressures or sacks as a way to judge pass rushers in the future, since according to you they are just a "few cherry picked stats."
and if daniel jones somehow repeats his 2022 i look forward to you considering him a top 6 QB just because 1 stat (QBR) says so.
sacks and pressures are a good way to judge pass rushers which is why ive used all of them in this very thread. there are even better stats like win rates on true pass sets which ive posted in this thread, though perhaps you missed those charts/screenshots because you only have eyes for the 1 stat from 1 season that you think proves a point despite a larger sample size of evidence indicating its misleading.
why do you suppose the same miami fo that's been with him his whole career, that rossetti used to be part of, didn't tag or tag/trade him if he's the difference maker you think your 1 stat says he is? i recall less than 6 months ago a half of a season of an older leonard williams brought back a 2nd round pick. was miami's FO incompetent or oblivious to the difference making pass rusher in their midst?
and a Fan Nation article where some up and coming schlub thought he could generate some traffic from what can be interpreted as a snub. It's sports muckraking, and it certainly doesn't deserve your attention let alone fucking statistical analysis.
I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
Last year on third down
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Wilkins had 27 third-down pressures in 2023 -- tied for second in the NFL amongst interior linemen. Only Quinnen Williams (30) had more, as Wilkins was tied with Chris Jones and DeForest Buckner.
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Wilkins had 5.5 sacks on third down in addition to those 27 pressures, a pressure rate of 19.0%. He was actually tied for seventh amongst defensive linemen who line up in a three-point stance in sacks on third down (5.5), Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
This isn't a statistical analysis or a very complicated assessment. Rosetti's very direct observation wasn't true in 2023. Wilkins was pretty good on 3rd down pass rushes.
If we want to have a broader conversation on value, his holistic game, and why the Raiders deemed him payable and the Dolphins didn't -- I'm up for that.
But let's all at least settle on the simple fact Rosetti said something that wasn't true in 2023.
Eric on Li -- if Rosetti said Jones is not a good third down passer, but he was top 5 in yards and TDs on third down -- I would find that silly too.
Why did Williams net a 2nd round pick? Because the Giants paid all but the pro rated portion of his salary and Seattle got 10 games of his services.
Why did the Dolphins choose not to pay Wilkins and the Raiders did? I imagine Fewell projects him to play a similar role to Williams in 2020, and that he can get similar results in his 6th year.
that daniel jones was a top 6 qb just because 1 reputable stat (qbr) said so? were we to ignore any other dispositive stats?
jrud is correct - this is muckraking, clickbait, or whatever other word you want to use for a manufactured faux outrage. which you are then twisting farther into a pretzel specifying qualifiers on rossetti's comments that he didn't make.
just curious though are you high enough on your own supply that you think the giants erred in not signing wilkins and keeping the 2nd round pick that went to burns? if you believe he's a difference making pass rusher in addition to the fact that he's always been a very good player against the run, keeping that 2nd round pick seems like a no brainer?
Rosetti was assessing one very specific part of Wilkin's game (pass rush on 3rd down), so I don't think a broad measurement like QBR is a good analogue.
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
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I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
Eric on Li -- if Rosetti said Jones is not a good third down passer, but he was top 5 in yards and TDs on third down -- I would find that silly too.
Why did Williams net a 2nd round pick? Because the Giants paid all but the pro rated portion of his salary and Seattle got 10 games of his services.
Why did the Dolphins choose not to pay Wilkins and the Raiders did? I imagine Fewell projects him to play a similar role to Williams in 2020, and that he can get similar results in his 6th year.
our replies crossed but you seem to be missing the point w/ the jones comparison while tripling down on the cherry picking. you seem to have an unrealistic expectation that every opinion has to line up with every stat which is never the case. there are always contradictions because no stats are perfect.
its possible wilkins is reaching some new level and got taken for granted. steelers did that with hargrave and if you've seen enough of wilkins that you believe that's what's happening all the power to you. but for the nth time, the better predictive stats for pass rush are the ones he that contradict his gross pressures ranking which is no doubt somewhat inflated by the volume of snaps he played. his old team and their inability to tag/trade him indicate most of the league would seem to be betting against the assessment made by AP/patrick graham (and his alter ego perry fewell). True pass sets and their importance to player evaluation - ( New Window )
I have no unrealistic expectations, I am actually simply debating the very specific criticism Rosetti made of Wilkins.
He stated in the most specific terms he wasn't a difference-making player maker on 3rd down. The counting stats told otherwise last year.
I am not making a broader assessment of him as a player. I haven't researched his performance as a pass rusher on 1st and 2nd down. I haven't researched his run stopping ability.
I don't have a strong opinion on his efficacy as a defender vs. Burns or the projected ROI. And I'm certainly not outraged or twisting anything.
I'm simply questioning if a guy who is top 5 in the pass rush counting stats from his position, in the situation described isn't a difference maker.
Rosetti was assessing one very specific part of Wilkin's game (pass rush on 3rd down), so I don't think a broad measurement like QBR is a good analogue.
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
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I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
despite what a few posters insinuated, I thought Rosetti came off very well.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
With the likes of McCloud, Pinnock and Cager, now we know why the Giants have been a scrap heap. Perhaps it's just been a bit better of a scrap heap than in previous years, that has some fans thinking mcclouded. 2024 will tell if they can rise above the scrap heap, known as about 26 of 32 NFL teams.
Lol did you even read my point? You clearly didn't comprehend it...
My point is when judging Rosetti and the pro personnel department, they have done GOOD things under this regime.
I know it's hard to come to terms with that - they are a small piece of the greater puzzle when it comes to success of the entire team..
What did you expect from 5 waiver pickups on cut day in 2022? To me they exceeded expectations...that's good on the pro scouting staff...
What free agent hasn't panned out for this team thus far, or didn't live up to their contract given? The only one I can think of is Glowinski, and of course you can't bat 1.000....
Your comment is asinine when it's intention is to give well earned kudos to the ONE department on this team that imo is actually doing a pretty good job.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
What free agent hasn't panned out for this team thus far, or didn't live up to their contract given? The only one I can think of is Glowinski, and of course you can't bat 1.000....
Pro scouting has a hand in all veteran acquisitions. Glowinksi, Campbell, and Waller all to various degrees were disappointing.
On the other hand Okereke, Pinnock, and Robinson were successes relative to cost.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?). ive seen a good amount of wilkins over more than a half decade and i see a player more in the dalvin tomlinson neighborhood, though he may be the nicest house on that block. a very good 3 down player who is highly active but not a particularly notable pass rusher.
at age 30 tomlinson has 80m+ in career earnings and just signed a 4 year deal for 57m heading into his 8th year, so he's no slouch. but unless he underwent some kind of late career hargrave transformation he's just not a difference making pass rusher no matter how many more snaps he plays at his same rates to work his way up a pressures leaderboard. they both had almost exactly the same rate stats in pressures, hits, hurries last year, wilkins just played 200 more snaps. all very similar to the stats/rates tomlinson posted his final year as a nyg.
and a Fan Nation article where some up and coming schlub thought he could generate some traffic from what can be interpreted as a snub. It's sports muckraking, and it certainly doesn't deserve your attention let alone fucking statistical analysis.
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Williams was always going to command 20M AAV if he had a good season.
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christian : 6/11/2023 9:57 am : link
In comment 16131243 Klaatu said:
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I think the Giants would be open to a two-year extension with money/terms favorable to them, but as christian said above, that's probably not what Williams is looking for.
Williams's agent Roosevelt Barnes is a titan in the industry and one of the best.
This situation isn't unlike 2020 when Williams got tagged. Team Williams was comfortable betting on him, while taking a nice one year sum.
Williams has no incentive to restructure at some bargain rate unless the Giants are serious about cutting him.
Maybe Schoen is a ruthless dog and threatens that on June 11. That would be a reputation killer for him, and not worth saving a few bucks this year.
Ultimately Team Williams is looking at that Hargrove deal and knows if Williams has a good season there's a big market out there.
I don't think the OTC methodology is great but it's directionally helpful, they valued him at 14.5. I thought it was a lock he got 20M+ which he did.
Above average seasons by Leo in every year except one
when he brought it all season. And that one is just a classic example of what his talent ceiling could reach, but only after he calculated what elite money would provide him.
Leo did very well for himself and found just the right place to take advantage of a weak GM.
Of a nobody fan wearing out Rosetti over one sentence of a who knows how long discussion, it is surely possible that Wilkins becomes a Dex-like beast worth every nickel of his $85 million while Burns takes his $85 million and shits the bed. Then everyone involved will look like idiots in hindsight.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Why did Rosetti call out a particular down?
jfc have you forgotten everything you know about football or are you being obtuse?
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
perhaps you've once or twice or a million times heard the phrase "1st/2nd down run stuffer" or maybe that's where this football 101 continues for you, wiklins isnt that but he also isn't a designated pass rusher who never comes off the field on passing downs. he's a balanced 3 down player not unlike cofield/robbins (robbins 25 sacks as a giant are 4.5 more than wilkins 20.5 as a dolphin in just 12 fewer games).
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
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he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
Of a nobody fan wearing out Rosetti over one sentence of a who knows how long discussion, it is surely possible that Wilkins becomes a Dex-like beast worth every nickel of his $85 million while Burns takes his $85 million and shits the bed. Then everyone involved will look like idiots in hindsight.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
I could see wilkins ending up like Hargraves, whose 2nd free agent contract last year ended up bigger than his 1st free agent contract coming from the Steelers where he'd played more of a 2 gap run stuffing role. The eagles let him penetrate more and he thrived.
it's not the worst gamble because he has a really high floor but it's totally speculative and against the odds, over his career and even in his career pass rushing year, he has never reached the level guys like dex, simmons, quinnen, chris jones etc and that's how he got paid. statistically leonard williams is/was a better pass rusher.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
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he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
You're confusing me.
no you're being obtuse. it really is not a hard concept to understand, the players talent doesn't change down to down. a great pass rusher is a great pass rusher any down.
what changes down to down is the situation. stopping the run, which wilkins is best at, is more important on early downs, rushing the passer, which wilkins statistically has never been as good at is more important on 3rd downs.
at this point the horse is dead, if you want to swallow the clickbait whole that's your choice.
Back to the very simple question Eric -- did Wilkins pass the rusher well last year on third down?
yes by all means lets go back to the same stupid question ive already answered yet you keep choosing to frame in a different way than what rossetti actually said.
Back to the very simple question Eric -- did Wilkins pass the rusher well last year on third down?
NextGen suggests Wilkins was tremendous passing the rusher on third down. I read where ball carriers were amazed how quickly Wilkins shot through gaps and passed them when they ran by.
i mean literally answered it directly the first time it was asked
here's a simple question for you, why do you keep distorting what rossetti actually said?
I'm not distorting what he said in the least. Let's try it this way. This is what Rosetti said
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I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
Given that 2023 is the most recent data, I'm asking you a question about 2023: Given this information, in 2023 do you think Wilkins was a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down?
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Wilkins had 27 third-down pressures in 2023 -- tied for second in the NFL amongst interior linemen. Only Quinnen Williams (30) had more, as Wilkins was tied with Chris Jones and DeForest Buckner.
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Wilkins had 5.5 sacks on third down in addition to those 27 pressures, a pressure rate of 19.0%. He was actually tied for seventh amongst defensive linemen who line up in a three-point stance in sacks on third down (5.5), Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year? Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
RE: RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
QBR had him 6th best in 2022 so according to christian's single season single stat theorem you're right, he should have been paid like a top 6 qb.
RE: RE: no you're cherry picking a specific sample nobody else specified
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
if this were an honest question why keep asking it when ive already answered? oh right because it's not a question it's a dodge.
the jones comparison only proves how insane your position that any single stat from 1 season can be as powerful as you believe it to be, that's why i brought it up yesterday long before BW (and he happens to love QBR even more than you love 3rd down pressures).
Kindly point me to where you answered whether you believe Wilkins was or was not a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down last year.
yesterday's 12:51 post reposted again today at 12:34. you can keep trying to shoehorn the framing to 2023 like that's any less nonsensical than calling jones a top 6 qb based only on 2022 would have been, but i wont continue to belabor, even i have limits.
I think the most recent data is weighed more heavily in these types of analysis by teams. I don't think it is or should be used on its own. Neither by the dimension of the year nor the single metric.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
I think the most recent data is weighed more heavily in these types of analysis by teams. I don't think it is or should be used on its own. Neither by the dimension of the year nor the single metric.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
if he had said "i dont see daniel jones as a top 6 qb" would he have been wrong because there was 1 high quality stat, from only the most recent season and absent from all others since the 2019 draft, that said he was?
because that is your exact logic ITT, and the stat your entire argument is built on is a less comprehensive stat than QBR.
I think that's a bad comparison. He called out a very specific scenario -- play type (pass) and down (3rd). He also wasn't stack ranking players.
Let's look at a more apples to apples comparison. If he said Daniel Jones wasn't a difference maker passing the ball on the third down -- and in the previous season Jones had a high passer rating, and was a league leader in yard and touchdowns on third down -- I'd criticize that observation too.
And to be clear, the 3 stats I presented are sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage. Not one single stat.
as i have mentioned his pressure percentage isnt very good. i think i posted a screenshot yesterday and it was lowest of all miami pass rushes. his sacks and pressures are partially inflated by having played the 2nd most pass rush snaps of any IDL.
farther there is data we dont have that the teams do. how many of his sacks were clean up sacks? i dont know but from his game log at least a few of them were partials. how many of his pressures were by design on screen plays unblocked? these are all things ive already pointed out. his volume stats are good but boosted by more reps, his rate stats are nowhere near the undisputed difference makers (dex, chris jones, donald, quinnen).
Was the pressure percentage stat you posted overall or on 3rd down?
This is the third down observation from CBS:
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Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
dexter lawrence played 16/17g and only had 176 true pass set snaps. how many DL do you suppose met the criteria for 200 pass rush snaps on just 3rd downs? less than 10? such is the flaw of using small sample sized stats especially if you are using scraps of data without knowing the full set.
here's every DL with more than 300 pass rush reps (all downs) sorted by pressure% (formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer on true pass sets). this was a stat developed by the guy the falcons just hired in their FO. if you got this far you can read the article i posted yesterday if you want to why i trust pff beyond having access to their data - they explain their methodology and validate correlation.
notice how much the top of this list correlates with the guys indisputably considered to be difference making pass rushers? wilkins career year was just 20th at 9.6%. and i just scanned back 2 years, in 2022 he was 50th at 4.1% and 2021 he was closer to this year at 9.0%.
i believe he's also something like the 4th highest rated run defender in the last 3 years by PFF, so this isnt some bias against wilkins. he is a very durable and very good all around player. if he were also a "difference making pass rusher" the dolphins wouldnt have let him go, but like their former employee the guy that drafted him apparently didnt think that.
Eric, I don't know how much more clearly I can frame this debate. Rosetti posited a very specific criticism, against a very specific scenario. Pass rushing on third down.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
Eric, I don't know how much more clearly I can frame this debate. Rosetti posited a very specific criticism, against a very specific scenario. Pass rushing on third down.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
oh cool we're back to the christian theorem of all you need is 1 stat in a not representative time period. the only thing that's clear is that this was a waste of time.
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
ill be impressed if you could observe and take out of context anything else so stupid but from this ive learned not to underestimate you.
I'm impressed you've posted a trillion times on this thread and showcased your third grade drawing skills and offered virtually no opinions or data on Wilkins as a third down pass rusher, the topic of which we're debating.
Why do I get the feeling one of us is laughing, and the other is might need a walk?
is the one who got so triggered by this quote he found a new career as a cirque du soleil contortionist.
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“This is Dexter’s best friend,” Rossetti said. “I don’t think he’s a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.” He would go on to clarify, though, that he was still a very good football player.
It's day three, let's try this again. In my best not triggered voice:
Hey Eric on Li -- can you provide evidence that indicates Christian Wilkins is not a good pass rusher on 3rd down?
Is that un-contorted enough for you my complex friend?
not really because you contorted the word rossetti actually used "difference making" to merely "good", a lower bar than rossetti's own qualifier that christian wilkins is not just good but "very good".
we can get this to day 4 if you carry on true to form by twisting the argument into a meditation on what truly defines a "difference maker" like it's not a pretty plainly understood concept.
Did we decide if Wilkens is a good pass rusher on third down?
I'll go first -- to get a sense if a player was a very good pass rusher on 3rd down, I would start by looking at how many sacks, pressures, and the percentage of snaps he applied pressure on 3rd down. And where that ranked against other players at the position.
Ah see we're getting somewhere! So difference maker = very good. Excellent.
So now Eric on Li, what are some discreet criteria you would use to determine a player was a very good pass rusher on third down?
apparently we arent getting anywhere because you cant seem to comprehend the word rossetti used was "difference maker", not good or very good. rossetti said Christian Wilkins is very good but not a difference maker.
my definition of "difference maker" would be exactly how he described chris jones.
RE: Did we decide if Wilkens is a good pass rusher on third down?
OK Eric on Li, let's try this way: name an IDL you believe is a difference-making pass rusher.
What are the criteria you would use to determine that distinction?
maybe instead of counting all my posts/charts you should try reading a few of them. i've mentioned numerous times the same example rossetti described (quote and clip linked below).
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“We watch the tape. You see Chris Jones getting double-teamed every snap, and then the guy on the other side just has one block. You just imagine that’s Dex with one guy on them every time.” said Rossetti. “The possibilities and the game-wrecking capabilities are there.”
you may also remember seeing chris jones name at the top of all the pff screenshots ive been posted with more sacks, pressures, and higher pressure rate thank wilkins because all his production came in almost 100 fewer pass rush snaps. he has more sacks in the last 2 seasons than wilkins has in his full 5. if you include Wilkins clemson sacks he has a grand total 36 since 2015 between both NFL/CFB. Chris Jones has more than twice as many with 75.5 in the NFL only since 2016.
does it really take 3 days to get to the reality that it's fair to have the opinion that there's a big difference between an obvious difference maker like chris jones and a still very good player like christian wilkins? it's only the same conclusion the dolphins came to in letting wilkins walk. The Giants going over #Chiefs DT Chris Jones ahead of free agency on Hard Knocks - ( New Window )
And just as a good gesture, I apologize for mixing up the Rosetti criterias. It does appear it goes Very Good -> Difference Making.
And it also appears 3rd down is a uniquely important situation, as he called it out specifically.
So I'll start -- I think a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down is someone who ranks among the top players at his position in sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage.
Eric I've read all of your posts. I agree, overall Jones is a better player than Wilkins.
Now let's talk about 3rd down, the situation Rosetti called out specifically.
How did Jones's 3rd down numbers compare to Wilkins?
how many times do i have to tell you i havent seen any public database of 3rd down numbers? if you have anything beyond the flimsy small sample data point this clickbait is based on feel free to share but i im 99.9999% sure there's no data point that will show anything other than a vast difference between jones/wilkins because anyone who has ever watched the 2 players play for more than 5 minutes there's a vast difference between jones/wilkins.
here's a new screenshot for you im not as familiar with espn's methodology but they too show a pretty wide difference between jones/wilkins even in wilkins career season.
talking about an overpaid DT and what the definition of "is" is.
Good player, no doubt. Better than average DT, no doubt. Were the Giants ever interested in spending another huge sum for a lesser talent than DexLaw? No. They spent their money on the correct player/position in Burns. Now go find a competent DT that can hold or collapse the middle. Plenty of those(enough anyway) available and Jordon Riley might be that guy.
talking about an overpaid DT and what the definition of "is" is.
Good player, no doubt. Better than average DT, no doubt. Were the Giants ever interested in spending another huge sum for a lesser talent than DexLaw? No. They spent their money on the correct player/position in Burns. Now go find a competent DT that can hold or collapse the middle. Plenty of those(enough anyway) available and Jordon Riley might be that guy.
Jordan Phillips is that guy. Enormous twinkle toed space eater. Greg Cosell said don't sleep on him. He was a top DT in his draft class (behind Leonard Willians) -- projected to start immediately with unlimited upside. The concern was, while dominant at times, he disappeared the rest of the time. Seems like that continued at this level.
Worst case he's a proven JAG DT whose taken nearly half the snaps on the 3 defenses he's played in to date. It's easy to see why the Giants signed him -- straight up he plugs the Williams hole (literally) with a lesser but athletically gifted (and much larger) rotation player. And while likely is what he is after 7 years in the league, he could surprise playing next to Dex and with Burns and Thibs.
Hree's the post-draft review:
The Dolphins hit it out of the park with their first two picks, while defensive tackle might not have been a ‘need’ position, adding Jordan Phillips gives them a chance to have a dominating front four to challenge any in the league. Phillips is a raw prospect, a true one technique who will command double teams in the run game due to his size, which might not be possible for opponents to manage with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake also on the line. Phillips biggest strength is against the run where he had a 9.0 run stop percentage against Power 5 teams, the fifth-best mark among defensive tackles in this year's draft.
Depth Chart Fit: As a rotational defensive tackle splitting time with Earl Mitchell, but Phillips has the talent to overtake Mitchell by the end of the season, especially on rushing downs.
Phillips is an intersting point since pass rush is his best thing
or at least his most statistically appealing one. on true pass sets his numbers compare reasonably similar to wilkins (9.2% win rate vs 11.1%). so if nyg were looking to fill a role of 200 obvious pass rush snaps next year and wiklins had another career year, the difference could have been as low as 4 fewer "wins" (and correspondingly pressures) agains the guy blocking him. and that's not even a guarantee bc in 2022 phillips actually had the slightly higher 8.4% win rate vs wilkins 8.2%.
phillips is obviously older, not as durable, and not nearly the player wilkins is vs the run. probably the only way he measures up is that so far per pass rush down he's held up to be similarly productive. it seems like pretty savvy ROI to have been able to add him as a role player + burns for the same $ as wilkins if improving pass rush is the main goal. the downside is the run D if they cant find a good DL to rotate early down. or if he cant make it through the season effectively due to age/durability.
Funnily, Wilkins was the next DT after Phillips the Dolphins spent a high pick on.
The HK clip was nice TV with the Dex/Wilkins angle, but I doubt the Giants seriously considered Wilkins or another big dollar DT. The need was always edge -- our 4-man rush was feeble with Dex + Big Cat.
Rosetti was also working for the Dolphins when they drafted Wilkins in 2019, so he's actually seen the guy in person a fair amount.
Is it wrong though? He had 61 total pressures, 27 pressures on 3rd down last year. Here are his numbers for the rest of his career.
2019 - 30 pressures & 2.0 sacks
2020 - 36 pressures & 1.5 sacks
2021 - 31 pressures & 4.5 sacks
2022 - 30 pressures & 3.5 sacks
How often do we see guys have monster years in their contract year get a massive payday and never come close to that 1 year again?
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Yeah, could have put more thought into the thread title - it is never good to get called out though. On the draft, the hope would be that some of the reason the draftees have not developed is the need for better coaching, and that the coaching turnover will imorove just put in thread title
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
Yeah, I could have spent more time on the thread title, but it is not good to be called out on multiple publications. As far as drafting goes, the hope would be that the coaching turnover will improve young player development.
And, I agree - can't tie up but so much $ at DT.
So yeah.. Rosetti is going to be just fine..
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
With the likes of McCloud, Pinnock and Cager, now we know why the Giants have been a scrap heap. Perhaps it's just been a bit better of a scrap heap than in previous years, that has some fans thinking mcclouded. 2024 will tell if they can rise above the scrap heap, known as about 26 of 32 NFL teams.
The numbers are comparable, but they played in different defenses and were asked to do different things. Remember Lawrence played out of position as a DE for a few seasons. When he was switched to NT, he became unstoppable.
It would be interesting to see Wilkins and Lawrence playing together but that might be a poor allocation of resources and cap space. Lawrence needs to be beside a complementary tackle - not a duplicate.
Either way I feel a shit-ton better about Burns for $85 million guaranteed dollars than Wilkins for the same money.
I don't think judging IDLs on sack counts is very instructive. Lawrence didn't break out until his 4th year, Wilkins didn't until his 5th year and they both only have one season over 4.5 sacks.
My only point is Wilkins did in fact have a strong year on 3rd down, and Rosetti's assessment didn't seem to account for that.
Now, if it's a matter of consistency or fear he can't repeat the performance, that's probably a more important and better point.
Thibodeaux had 11.5 sacks but his win rate was 6.4%. Aidan Hutchinson had the same number of sacks but his pressures dwarfed Kayvon's and his win rate was 21.3%.
I do hope Kayvon improves because the sack number never told the story. We have been down this road recently with Azeez Ojulari's rookie campaign and the Markus Golden season of 10 sacks. Advanced stats showed they lacked consistency - you just hope coaching and health allows the player to keep building and improving.
Thibodeaux had 11.5 sacks but his win rate was 6.4%. Aidan Hutchinson had the same number of sacks but his pressures dwarfed Kayvon's and his win rate was 21.3%.
I do hope Kayvon improves because the sack number never told the story. We have been down this road recently with Azeez Ojulari's rookie campaign and the Markus Golden season of 10 sacks. Advanced stats showed they lacked consistency - you just hope coaching and health allows the player to keep building and improving.
Having someone on the other side will help..
Actually working with Patterson will help..
Working with Burns who has more time in the league should help...
rossetti's job description and information access isn't limited to looking up the most recent stats, he and a full team of people are watching/grading every rep.
i am a very big wilkins fans going back to that clemson team w/ dex and he has always been a complete player but not standout in any one area. he is a better version of tomlinson - who is also a very good player who has now made a lot of money playing well for a lot of good defenses but without impacting 3rd downs much.
We don't know that. All we know is what was shown and reported.
It's not some tragic oversight or credibility eroding POV. It's just a minor, silly mistake that someone pointed out.
I think it's more that Wilkins had a good year on third down.
...
Wilkins had 5.5 sacks on third down in addition to those 27 pressures, a pressure rate of 19.0%. He was actually tied for seventh amongst defensive linemen who line up in a three-point stance in sacks on third down (5.5), Wilkins was third amongst interior linemen in pressure rate on third down (minimum 200 snaps), behind Aaron Donald (21.5%) and Quinnen Williams (19.9%).
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those meetings going player by player were likely days long and 2-3-4 hour sessions. how do we know he didnt at some point before that 10 seconds say "wilkins had a big year this past year, but overall for his career he hasnt replicated that so it was probably statistically likely to continue".
We don't know that. All we know is what was shown and reported.
It's not some tragic oversight or credibility eroding POV. It's just a minor, silly mistake that someone pointed out.
it is not "reporting" that they had in depth conversations about top free agents nor should it be surprising that they discussed the pros/cons of those players. it would be reporting that if they didnt because it means they werent doing their jobs.
it's a condensed show intentionally made to be as compelling/provocative/interesting as possible. the job of the show/producers is to be as entertaining as possible, it is only their job to be accurate and nuanced to the extent that the team doesn't veto something.
beyond that his quote is basically the same as any scouting report on him since clemson.
the content of what he said is only a "mistake" if you know nothing of the player except a few cherry picked stats from last year. miami was the 3rd best pass rush team in the nfl which likely benefited wilkins statistically even though he wasn't close to their top individual pass rusher. of their main guys he actually had the lowest pressure rates/pass rush grades. forgetting chubb, phillips, van ginkel, ogbah even their other IDL actually had 1 more sack and 13 more pressures than he did.
the only new piece of information "reported" was that Dex' text to schoen indicates he may have been working things with Wilkins behind the scenes and that perhaps Wilkins was open to coming here. that was speculated about at the time but i dont recall seeing it specifically reported anywhere.
nice try but that's not what rossetti said. reread the quote. the exact sound bite everyone is choosing to nitpick was "difference making pass rusher" and in the context of his position wilkins isn't and has never been on the level of someone like chris jones - who rossetti was correctly waxing poetic on in the same segment bc that is what an actual difference making pass rusher looks like.
statistically he hasnt even been all that close to the pass rusher leonard williams has been over the last half decade, and most of this board spent that half decade complaining that he was overpaid/overrated, often despite statistical production, bc he wasn't a "difference maker". in the last 5 seasons williams had 33 sacks to wilkins 24 and correspondingly almost 150% the number of pressures (242 to 167) and better win rates on true pass sets which are the better measure of pass rush ability.
Still think the Giants need an impact DT/5T player. Perhaps a surprise on the roster or they address it next draft.
Keep adding impact front 7 players. Good DC's will find a way to use them.
search any posts ive made about wilkins in the last 6+ years and you will see i have believed he is a very good player, pass rush included, going back to his time at clemson.
not sure what's so hard to understand about that coexisting with what rossetti said as both being pretty obvious statements of reality (and literally almost exactly what he said verbatim).
And when a player rates near the top of his position group at the two output counting stats, I'm very comfortable believing that is difference making.
For the 2023 season on its own, I think what Rosetti said is silly.
Either way I feel a shit-ton better about Burns for $85 million guaranteed dollars than Wilkins for the same money.
This. In college you might have two or three of these guys on you DL. Not possible to pay two DTs top dollar in the NFL. And we needed Burns and pressure from the ER position. And this is his position for the Giants and their needs. It that he’s not worth it or a bad player. People want to crest drama and clicks
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor. i view difference makers as the elite players like chris jones who do everything rossetti described chris jones as being able to do so from that i suppose he feels similarly. players whose presence is felt on the field every snap bc they command extra attention every play from the other team and still post elite production. aaron donald, dexter lawrence, chris jones. tyreek hill, justin jefferson, ceedee lamb, travis kelce, nick bosa, parsons, myles garrett etc.
they are the guys who almost always get extended early or franchise tagged and almost never hit unrestricted free agency in their primes because even if a team has cap troubles they have trade value.
i love brian burns - who got tagged unlike wilkins the cost more in both $ and picks - and id similarly consider him more 'next tier down' than parsons/bosa level difference maker, though if you specifically want "difference making 3rd down pass rush", that's his absolute best skill. wilkins biggest value is a high floor every down player.
It is unusual - but the Commanders do
I agree with other that acquiring Burns was definitely a better move than signing Wilkins. definitely a better move than signing Wilkins, though, if they could have somehow signed Chris Jones, that would’ve been my ideal.
Still think the Giants need an impact DT/5T player. Perhaps a surprise on the roster or they address it next draft.
Keep adding impact front 7 players. Good DC's will find a way to use them.
Basham and Anderson are hopeful 5T surprises.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor.
You're too funny man. No charts, tables, or MS Paint drawings required in my world to determine a guy who tied for 2nd among IDLs in pressures on 3rd down, is in fact a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.
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Eric -- I'm not sure how you or Rosetti define difference making.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor.
You're too funny man. No charts, tables, or MS Paint drawings required in my world to determine a guy who tied for 2nd among IDLs in pressures on 3rd down, is in fact a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.
what's too funny is this new commitment to 1 single season stat being absolutely determinative absent any context. id imagine that will last as long as the next argument where that methodology doesn't hold up...which will be whatever the next argument is.
i think you are overcomplicating what is a simple descriptor.
You're too funny man. No charts, tables, or MS Paint drawings required in my world to determine a guy who tied for 2nd among IDLs in pressures on 3rd down, is in fact a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down.
what's too funny is this new commitment to 1 single season stat being absolutely determinative absent any context. id imagine that will last as long as the next argument where that methodology doesn't hold up...which will be whatever the next argument is.
And I look forward to you not using pressures or sacks as a way to judge pass rushers in the future, since according to you they are just a "few cherry picked stats."
what's too funny is this new commitment to 1 single season stat being absolutely determinative absent any context. id imagine that will last as long as the next argument where that methodology doesn't hold up...which will be whatever the next argument is.
And I look forward to you not using pressures or sacks as a way to judge pass rushers in the future, since according to you they are just a "few cherry picked stats."
and if daniel jones somehow repeats his 2022 i look forward to you considering him a top 6 QB just because 1 stat (QBR) says so.
sacks and pressures are a good way to judge pass rushers which is why ive used all of them in this very thread. there are even better stats like win rates on true pass sets which ive posted in this thread, though perhaps you missed those charts/screenshots because you only have eyes for the 1 stat from 1 season that you think proves a point despite a larger sample size of evidence indicating its misleading.
why do you suppose the same miami fo that's been with him his whole career, that rossetti used to be part of, didn't tag or tag/trade him if he's the difference maker you think your 1 stat says he is? i recall less than 6 months ago a half of a season of an older leonard williams brought back a 2nd round pick. was miami's FO incompetent or oblivious to the difference making pass rusher in their midst?
Last year on third down
This isn't a statistical analysis or a very complicated assessment. Rosetti's very direct observation wasn't true in 2023. Wilkins was pretty good on 3rd down pass rushes.
If we want to have a broader conversation on value, his holistic game, and why the Raiders deemed him payable and the Dolphins didn't -- I'm up for that.
But let's all at least settle on the simple fact Rosetti said something that wasn't true in 2023.
Why did Williams net a 2nd round pick? Because the Giants paid all but the pro rated portion of his salary and Seattle got 10 games of his services.
Why did the Dolphins choose not to pay Wilkins and the Raiders did? I imagine Fewell projects him to play a similar role to Williams in 2020, and that he can get similar results in his 6th year.
jrud is correct - this is muckraking, clickbait, or whatever other word you want to use for a manufactured faux outrage. which you are then twisting farther into a pretzel specifying qualifiers on rossetti's comments that he didn't make.
just curious though are you high enough on your own supply that you think the giants erred in not signing wilkins and keeping the 2nd round pick that went to burns? if you believe he's a difference making pass rusher in addition to the fact that he's always been a very good player against the run, keeping that 2nd round pick seems like a no brainer?
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
Why did Williams net a 2nd round pick? Because the Giants paid all but the pro rated portion of his salary and Seattle got 10 games of his services.
Why did the Dolphins choose not to pay Wilkins and the Raiders did? I imagine Fewell projects him to play a similar role to Williams in 2020, and that he can get similar results in his 6th year.
our replies crossed but you seem to be missing the point w/ the jones comparison while tripling down on the cherry picking. you seem to have an unrealistic expectation that every opinion has to line up with every stat which is never the case. there are always contradictions because no stats are perfect.
its possible wilkins is reaching some new level and got taken for granted. steelers did that with hargrave and if you've seen enough of wilkins that you believe that's what's happening all the power to you. but for the nth time, the better predictive stats for pass rush are the ones he that contradict his gross pressures ranking which is no doubt somewhat inflated by the volume of snaps he played. his old team and their inability to tag/trade him indicate most of the league would seem to be betting against the assessment made by AP/patrick graham (and his alter ego perry fewell).
True pass sets and their importance to player evaluation - ( New Window )
He stated in the most specific terms he wasn't a difference-making player maker on 3rd down. The counting stats told otherwise last year.
I am not making a broader assessment of him as a player. I haven't researched his performance as a pass rusher on 1st and 2nd down. I haven't researched his run stopping ability.
I don't have a strong opinion on his efficacy as a defender vs. Burns or the projected ROI. And I'm certainly not outraged or twisting anything.
I'm simply questioning if a guy who is top 5 in the pass rush counting stats from his position, in the situation described isn't a difference maker.
If you have counter metrics that show Wilkins was a poor pass rusher on 3rd down last year, let's debate those. Everything I've seen you post is about his pass rush measurements in sum, which of course is not what we're debating or what was claimed.
And please, show me the qualifiers I am twisting that he didn't make.
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I don't think he's a difference-making pass rusher on third down, which is what we need opposite Dex.
i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
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despite what a few posters insinuated, I thought Rosetti came off very well.
Hes also, in my opinion, has led one of the few departments in the Giants front office that has actually hit on players.
The pro personnel staff under Schoen and Rosetti have done a really good job finding pro players to add...arguably better than the draft picks -
Guys like McCloud, Pinnock, Cager etc. off the scrap heap in year one...Okereke in year 2...all good moves that are teed up by the pro personnel dept.
Its the draft guys that have to start hitting - hopefully their picks start rounding into form, but its still an unknown going into year 3.
With the likes of McCloud, Pinnock and Cager, now we know why the Giants have been a scrap heap. Perhaps it's just been a bit better of a scrap heap than in previous years, that has some fans thinking mcclouded. 2024 will tell if they can rise above the scrap heap, known as about 26 of 32 NFL teams.
Lol did you even read my point? You clearly didn't comprehend it...
My point is when judging Rosetti and the pro personnel department, they have done GOOD things under this regime.
I know it's hard to come to terms with that - they are a small piece of the greater puzzle when it comes to success of the entire team..
What did you expect from 5 waiver pickups on cut day in 2022? To me they exceeded expectations...that's good on the pro scouting staff...
What free agent hasn't panned out for this team thus far, or didn't live up to their contract given? The only one I can think of is Glowinski, and of course you can't bat 1.000....
Your comment is asinine when it's intention is to give well earned kudos to the ONE department on this team that imo is actually doing a pretty good job.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
Pro scouting has a hand in all veteran acquisitions. Glowinksi, Campbell, and Waller all to various degrees were disappointing.
On the other hand Okereke, Pinnock, and Robinson were successes relative to cost.
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i have posted overall pass rush snaps bc i have no way of splitting out 3rd down stats from other downs.
even if i did have those numbers i dont think the down carries as much significance as you do - a players pass rushing talent doesnt change down to down.
the qualifier you're twisting is specifying the argument to 2023. wilkins has been in the league for 5 years and rossetti was in his org for 4 of them. he never specified his evaluation of wilkins talent was informed by just 100-200 3rd down snaps in 2023 and it would be stupid if it was.
1) Rosetti directly referred to his 3rd down pass rush ability, so this debate isn't about how you or I feel that may or may not extend to first and second down
2) You also only posted 2023 numbers
So what's more germane to a conversation about his 3rd down pass rush ability?
A) His 2023 3rd down pass rush numbers
B) His 2023 overall pash rush numbers
I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?). ive seen a good amount of wilkins over more than a half decade and i see a player more in the dalvin tomlinson neighborhood, though he may be the nicest house on that block. a very good 3 down player who is highly active but not a particularly notable pass rusher.
at age 30 tomlinson has 80m+ in career earnings and just signed a 4 year deal for 57m heading into his 8th year, so he's no slouch. but unless he underwent some kind of late career hargrave transformation he's just not a difference making pass rusher no matter how many more snaps he plays at his same rates to work his way up a pressures leaderboard. they both had almost exactly the same rate stats in pressures, hits, hurries last year, wilkins just played 200 more snaps. all very similar to the stats/rates tomlinson posted his final year as a nyg.
You win this thread.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Why did Rosetti call out a particular down?
Last year he was pretty good on third down. It's a weird thing to criticize coming off a year when the guy was quite good at it.
Which again, isn't some tragedy of a comment. It's a silly comment.
Still think the Giants need an impact DT/5T player. Perhaps a surprise on the roster or they address it next draft.
Keep adding impact front 7 players. Good DC's will find a way to use them.
Leonard Williams was never underrated on the field, only at the negotiating table.
And the Giants got played paying a good DT elite money. How surprising.
In comment 16131243 Klaatu said:
Quote:
I think the Giants would be open to a two-year extension with money/terms favorable to them, but as christian said above, that's probably not what Williams is looking for.
Williams's agent Roosevelt Barnes is a titan in the industry and one of the best.
This situation isn't unlike 2020 when Williams got tagged. Team Williams was comfortable betting on him, while taking a nice one year sum.
Williams has no incentive to restructure at some bargain rate unless the Giants are serious about cutting him.
Maybe Schoen is a ruthless dog and threatens that on June 11. That would be a reputation killer for him, and not worth saving a few bucks this year.
Ultimately Team Williams is looking at that Hargrove deal and knows if Williams has a good season there's a big market out there.
I don't think the OTC methodology is great but it's directionally helpful, they valued him at 14.5. I thought it was a lock he got 20M+ which he did.
Leo did very well for himself and found just the right place to take advantage of a weak GM.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
Yes, that's exactly what's being debated and concluded on this thread.
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I'll tell you what I think -- Rosetti made a silly comment.
honest question how much have you actually watched wilkins?
i ask because you seem to want to act like rossetti shouldn't be (or wasn't) offering an opinion based on his experience directly with the player and what he/his team saw in tape more than what this 1 single stat you believe confirms beyond any doubt.
im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Why did Rosetti call out a particular down?
jfc have you forgotten everything you know about football or are you being obtuse?
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
perhaps you've once or twice or a million times heard the phrase "1st/2nd down run stuffer" or maybe that's where this football 101 continues for you, wiklins isnt that but he also isn't a designated pass rusher who never comes off the field on passing downs. he's a balanced 3 down player not unlike cofield/robbins (robbins 25 sacks as a giant are 4.5 more than wilkins 20.5 as a dolphin in just 12 fewer games).
You're confusing me.
But in foresight, going with an already-proven bordering-on-elite edge penetrator versus a top run defender inside guy who put up rush numbers in his walk year is an easily defensible decision. Especially for the Giants given their roster makeup. Just as it was for the Dolphins - and they're paying peanuts for Sieler who put up better numbers.
I could see wilkins ending up like Hargraves, whose 2nd free agent contract last year ended up bigger than his 1st free agent contract coming from the Steelers where he'd played more of a 2 gap run stuffing role. The eagles let him penetrate more and he thrived.
it's not the worst gamble because he has a really high floor but it's totally speculative and against the odds, over his career and even in his career pass rushing year, he has never reached the level guys like dex, simmons, quinnen, chris jones etc and that's how he got paid. statistically leonard williams is/was a better pass rusher.
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im dismissive of the down stuff bc i dont think a particular down even enters the thought process (if i asked you to name the 10 best "difference making" pass rushers in the NFL would you even consider a difference between how they rush on different downs?).
Quote:
he mentioned it because 3rd down passing situations are the most predictable pass rushing opportunity where you want the best pass rushers possible on the field. think back to the nascar package with tuck/kiwanuka kicking inside taking guys like fred robbins and barry cofield off the field.
You're confusing me.
no you're being obtuse. it really is not a hard concept to understand, the players talent doesn't change down to down. a great pass rusher is a great pass rusher any down.
what changes down to down is the situation. stopping the run, which wilkins is best at, is more important on early downs, rushing the passer, which wilkins statistically has never been as good at is more important on 3rd downs.
at this point the horse is dead, if you want to swallow the clickbait whole that's your choice.
yes by all means lets go back to the same stupid question ive already answered yet you keep choosing to frame in a different way than what rossetti actually said.
NextGen suggests Wilkins was tremendous passing the rusher on third down. I read where ball carriers were amazed how quickly Wilkins shot through gaps and passed them when they ran by.
Counterpoint - ( New Window )
I'm not distorting what he said in the least. Let's try it this way. This is what Rosetti said
Given that 2023 is the most recent data, I'm asking you a question about 2023: Given this information, in 2023 do you think Wilkins was a difference making pass rusher on 3rd down?
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
Quote:
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
I guess the decision to re-sign Jones wasn't "big"...? :)
QBR had him 6th best in 2022 so according to christian's single season single stat theorem you're right, he should have been paid like a top 6 qb.
Quote:
no nfl team is making big decisions based only on the most recent season while ignoring whatever the full sample of data is, you're arbitrarily doing that bc it suits a piece of low rent 'gotcha' clickbait you seemingly agree with.
it's your right to agree with the article. as it has been the right of multiple posters to point how stupid it is to take such a benign quote out of context.
No, I'm asking you an extremely simple question. Do you believe Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Why is this such a difficult question for you to answer? Let me show how easy this is.
Question: Hey Christian, do you think Wilkins was a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down last year?
Answer: Yes
Also, BW just pantsed you, that's funny.
if this were an honest question why keep asking it when ive already answered? oh right because it's not a question it's a dodge.
the jones comparison only proves how insane your position that any single stat from 1 season can be as powerful as you believe it to be, that's why i brought it up yesterday long before BW (and he happens to love QBR even more than you love 3rd down pressures).
In comment 16548718 Eric on Li said:
and if daniel jones somehow repeats his 2022 i look forward to you considering him a top 6 QB just because 1 stat (QBR) says so.
yesterday's 12:51 post reposted again today at 12:34. you can keep trying to shoehorn the framing to 2023 like that's any less nonsensical than calling jones a top 6 qb based only on 2022 would have been, but i wont continue to belabor, even i have limits.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
I think Wilkins, Lawrence, and Jones are all examples of extended/signed players with their previous year's performance highly weighed.
To be crystal clear, I've never said this one area of strength in 2023 was a reason to sign him, that I wanted them to sign him, nor that I wanted them to sign him instead of trade for Burns.
I simply found it interesting Rosetti called out a super specific example of a disqualifying factor. And in the most recent year, his observation was wrong. This a silly mistake.
For the avoidance of any doubt, if 2023 Rosetti said the reason to not sign Jones was because he had a low QBR, I'd find that observation equally silly.
if he had said "i dont see daniel jones as a top 6 qb" would he have been wrong because there was 1 high quality stat, from only the most recent season and absent from all others since the 2019 draft, that said he was?
because that is your exact logic ITT, and the stat your entire argument is built on is a less comprehensive stat than QBR.
Let's look at a more apples to apples comparison. If he said Daniel Jones wasn't a difference maker passing the ball on the third down -- and in the previous season Jones had a high passer rating, and was a league leader in yard and touchdowns on third down -- I'd criticize that observation too.
as i have mentioned his pressure percentage isnt very good. i think i posted a screenshot yesterday and it was lowest of all miami pass rushes. his sacks and pressures are partially inflated by having played the 2nd most pass rush snaps of any IDL.
farther there is data we dont have that the teams do. how many of his sacks were clean up sacks? i dont know but from his game log at least a few of them were partials. how many of his pressures were by design on screen plays unblocked? these are all things ive already pointed out. his volume stats are good but boosted by more reps, his rate stats are nowhere near the undisputed difference makers (dex, chris jones, donald, quinnen).
This is the third down observation from CBS:
Jones stuff - ( New Window )
here's every DL with more than 300 pass rush reps (all downs) sorted by pressure% (formula that combines sacks, hits and hurries relative to how many times they rush the passer on true pass sets). this was a stat developed by the guy the falcons just hired in their FO. if you got this far you can read the article i posted yesterday if you want to why i trust pff beyond having access to their data - they explain their methodology and validate correlation.
notice how much the top of this list correlates with the guys indisputably considered to be difference making pass rushers? wilkins career year was just 20th at 9.6%. and i just scanned back 2 years, in 2022 he was 50th at 4.1% and 2021 he was closer to this year at 9.0%.
i believe he's also something like the 4th highest rated run defender in the last 3 years by PFF, so this isnt some bias against wilkins. he is a very durable and very good all around player. if he were also a "difference making pass rusher" the dolphins wouldnt have let him go, but like their former employee the guy that drafted him apparently didnt think that.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
If you want to provide data specific to that scenario that supports Rosetti's POV, I'm all ears.
You don't have to convince me he's likely a tier below as complete IDL or as pass rusher sum total on all downs for his career. At no point have I disputed that. I agree with you. I agree with Rosetti that he's a good player and would/did do well for himself.
It's clear as this thread is inane, that Rosetti, as it relates to last year in that specific scenario made a bad observation.
oh cool we're back to the christian theorem of all you need is 1 stat in a not representative time period. the only thing that's clear is that this was a waste of time.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
Quote:
No, we're back to the two pass rush stats on 3rd down where Wilkins excelled.
Next time you reference a player's sack or pressure number, I'll softly chuckle.
and the next time you say anything where 1 or 2 stats from a limited sample size contradict i wont do anything bc it will quite literally be the next time you attempt to make any observation.
Next time I post anything, I think the odds are higher you post 500K characters, 27 PFF screen shots, 18 declarations your done, and a dozen missed opportunities to just acknowledge the guy said something silly.
ill be impressed if you could observe and take out of context anything else so stupid but from this ive learned not to underestimate you.
Why do I get the feeling one of us is laughing, and the other is might need a walk?
Hey Eric on Li -- can you provide evidence that indicates Christian Wilkins is not a good pass rusher on 3rd down?
Is that un-contorted enough for you my complex friend?
Hey Eric on Li -- can you provide evidence that indicates Christian Wilkins is not a good pass rusher on 3rd down?
Is that un-contorted enough for you my complex friend?
not really because you contorted the word rossetti actually used "difference making" to merely "good", a lower bar than rossetti's own qualifier that christian wilkins is not just good but "very good".
we can get this to day 4 if you carry on true to form by twisting the argument into a meditation on what truly defines a "difference maker" like it's not a pretty plainly understood concept.
So now Eric on Li, what are some discreet criteria you would use to determine a player was a very good pass rusher on third down?
What other things would you look at?
So now Eric on Li, what are some discreet criteria you would use to determine a player was a very good pass rusher on third down?
apparently we arent getting anywhere because you cant seem to comprehend the word rossetti used was "difference maker", not good or very good. rossetti said Christian Wilkins is very good but not a difference maker.
my definition of "difference maker" would be exactly how he described chris jones.
What are the criteria you would use to determine that distinction?
Don't want to be accused of circus stuff.
What are the criteria you would use to determine that distinction?
maybe instead of counting all my posts/charts you should try reading a few of them. i've mentioned numerous times the same example rossetti described (quote and clip linked below).
you may also remember seeing chris jones name at the top of all the pff screenshots ive been posted with more sacks, pressures, and higher pressure rate thank wilkins because all his production came in almost 100 fewer pass rush snaps. he has more sacks in the last 2 seasons than wilkins has in his full 5. if you include Wilkins clemson sacks he has a grand total 36 since 2015 between both NFL/CFB. Chris Jones has more than twice as many with 75.5 in the NFL only since 2016.
does it really take 3 days to get to the reality that it's fair to have the opinion that there's a big difference between an obvious difference maker like chris jones and a still very good player like christian wilkins? it's only the same conclusion the dolphins came to in letting wilkins walk.
The Giants going over #Chiefs DT Chris Jones ahead of free agency on Hard Knocks - ( New Window )
And it also appears 3rd down is a uniquely important situation, as he called it out specifically.
So I'll start -- I think a difference-making pass rusher on 3rd down is someone who ranks among the top players at his position in sacks, pressures, and pressure percentage.
Now let's talk about 3rd down, the situation Rosetti called out specifically.
How did Jones's 3rd down numbers compare to Wilkins?
Now let's talk about 3rd down, the situation Rosetti called out specifically.
How did Jones's 3rd down numbers compare to Wilkins?
how many times do i have to tell you i havent seen any public database of 3rd down numbers? if you have anything beyond the flimsy small sample data point this clickbait is based on feel free to share but i im 99.9999% sure there's no data point that will show anything other than a vast difference between jones/wilkins because anyone who has ever watched the 2 players play for more than 5 minutes there's a vast difference between jones/wilkins.
here's a new screenshot for you im not as familiar with espn's methodology but they too show a pretty wide difference between jones/wilkins even in wilkins career season.
just throwing an idea out there do with it what you will, a christian vs eric on li ras card?
Quote:
just throwing an idea out there do with it what you will, a christian vs eric on li ras card?
You think too much of me, kid. I'm not that clever.
Good player, no doubt. Better than average DT, no doubt. Were the Giants ever interested in spending another huge sum for a lesser talent than DexLaw? No. They spent their money on the correct player/position in Burns. Now go find a competent DT that can hold or collapse the middle. Plenty of those(enough anyway) available and Jordon Riley might be that guy.
Good player, no doubt. Better than average DT, no doubt. Were the Giants ever interested in spending another huge sum for a lesser talent than DexLaw? No. They spent their money on the correct player/position in Burns. Now go find a competent DT that can hold or collapse the middle. Plenty of those(enough anyway) available and Jordon Riley might be that guy.
Jordan Phillips is that guy. Enormous twinkle toed space eater. Greg Cosell said don't sleep on him. He was a top DT in his draft class (behind Leonard Willians) -- projected to start immediately with unlimited upside. The concern was, while dominant at times, he disappeared the rest of the time. Seems like that continued at this level.
Worst case he's a proven JAG DT whose taken nearly half the snaps on the 3 defenses he's played in to date. It's easy to see why the Giants signed him -- straight up he plugs the Williams hole (literally) with a lesser but athletically gifted (and much larger) rotation player. And while likely is what he is after 7 years in the league, he could surprise playing next to Dex and with Burns and Thibs.
Hree's the post-draft review:
The Dolphins hit it out of the park with their first two picks, while defensive tackle might not have been a ‘need’ position, adding Jordan Phillips gives them a chance to have a dominating front four to challenge any in the league. Phillips is a raw prospect, a true one technique who will command double teams in the run game due to his size, which might not be possible for opponents to manage with Ndamukong Suh and Cameron Wake also on the line. Phillips biggest strength is against the run where he had a 9.0 run stop percentage against Power 5 teams, the fifth-best mark among defensive tackles in this year's draft.
Depth Chart Fit: As a rotational defensive tackle splitting time with Earl Mitchell, but Phillips has the talent to overtake Mitchell by the end of the season, especially on rushing downs.
phillips is obviously older, not as durable, and not nearly the player wilkins is vs the run. probably the only way he measures up is that so far per pass rush down he's held up to be similarly productive. it seems like pretty savvy ROI to have been able to add him as a role player + burns for the same $ as wilkins if improving pass rush is the main goal. the downside is the run D if they cant find a good DL to rotate early down. or if he cant make it through the season effectively due to age/durability.
The HK clip was nice TV with the Dex/Wilkins angle, but I doubt the Giants seriously considered Wilkins or another big dollar DT. The need was always edge -- our 4-man rush was feeble with Dex + Big Cat.