From 2019-2022, through the first two weeks of the season, there were a total of 105-110 pass TDs each season. In 2023, that fell to 86. This year, 66 (with MNF still to come).
Is it that defenses have finally developed effective methods of slowing down the high-octane passing games that dominated the league for 15 years or so? Is it more about a decline in quarterback quality in general compared to that period? Both? Neither?
It would be so NYG-like to have that be the case after we watched Saquon walk out the door lol.
Half kidding on the Barkley point as I'm sure we'll wind up hurt but still.
The 2nd tier big contact guys (Tua, Lawrence, Hurts, Dak) have looked mediocre thus far.
Ironically, the mid-tier/scrapheap journeyman are the ones who are thriving two weeks in: Carr, Geno, Baker, Darnold.
Have no idea what to take of this, but I have heard a theory that defenses have gone smaller and more athletic, which is making the passing game harder.
Mahomes and Allen are the only 2 franchise QBs with Burrow/Stroud being there or really close to it.
The rest are whatever.
It would be so NYG-like to have that be the case after we watched Saquon walk out the door lol.
Half kidding on the Barkley point as I'm sure we'll wind up hurt but still.
It would be classic Giants to anticipate a trend too early and never see the benefit of it.
It would be so NYG-like to have that be the case after we watched Saquon walk out the door lol.
Half kidding on the Barkley point as I'm sure we'll wind up hurt but still.
i think there is some truth to this. when you are dropping 2 safeties that's less 8 in the box, and it is possible teams are deciding to run more.
look at the chargers - yes 1 game was against carolina, but justin herbert hasnt hit 150 yards passing in either game yet. the raiders beat baltimore yesterday so that week 1 win doesnt seem like such a pushover either.
harbough's style is OL, running, physical - so almost exactly on brand to the type of trend being referenced. harbough turned both a terrible offensive line and defense pretty good overnight. his recipe to win with herbert was to not need herbert to do nearly as much to win.
trends in the NFL are cyclical and it's clear to me that in the last 5 years the winning trend was the McVay/Shanahan style. it's possible teams have had long enough to adjust to that and there is a new style that will win the next 5 years.
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talking about something like this. His point was that featured backs have been getting more carries, some general passin numbers were down and he was wondering if RBs are making a comeback on account of defenses catching up with the passing game.
It would be so NYG-like to have that be the case after we watched Saquon walk out the door lol.
Half kidding on the Barkley point as I'm sure we'll wind up hurt but still.
i think there is some truth to this. when you are dropping 2 safeties that's less 8 in the box, and it is possible teams are deciding to run more.
look at the chargers - yes 1 game was against carolina, but justin herbert hasnt hit 150 yards passing in either game yet. the raiders beat baltimore yesterday so that week 1 win doesnt seem like such a pushover either.
harbough's style is OL, running, physical - so almost exactly on brand to the type of trend being referenced. harbough turned both a terrible offensive line and defense pretty good overnight. his recipe to win with herbert was to not need herbert to do nearly as much to win.
trends in the NFL are cyclical and it's clear to me that in the last 5 years the winning trend was the McVay/Shanahan style. it's possible teams have had long enough to adjust to that and there is a new style that will win the next 5 years.
We will get on the McVay/Shanahan trend once the league has fully adjusted to it! We may have to bring in one more Patriots guy first before we go that route.
that preseason trend has been true for more than a decade though. why didnt it impact any other recent seasons?
trends in the NFL are cyclical and it's clear to me that in the last 5 years the winning trend was the McVay/Shanahan style. it's possible teams have had long enough to adjust to that and there is a new style that will win the next 5 years.
I've been wondering for years if the switch to a passing-friendly league might not lead inadvertantly to teams eventually going back to more balanced, if not run heavy schemes. Outside of mutants (of which there are plenty), the faster players needed to combat high powered passing attacks tend to be smaller and lighter. As defenses put more of those smaller, lighter players on the field, it should, in theory, make running easier if you can get heavier maulers on the OL and run out of heavier sets.
Additionally, as mentioned above, a lot of teams appear to be playing more two high safety sets to limit deep passes. Playing smaller players and having far fewer 8 man boxes might make running even easier.
I haven't actually looked at the average size of defenders in comparison to modern defenses prior to the passing explosion, but it's something I've wondered about.
I think this is true - bend but don’t break style of defense has become the norm
I also think with defenses trending smaller/faster to contend with modern passing attacks, teams are running more to take advantage
Exhibit A: Giants didn’t give up any deep passes or red zone TDs, although they got burned by some open mid-range shots over the middle. But they got gouged on the ground, with a defense including the likes of Cordale Flott, who probably couldn’t tackle my 5 year old
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The slow start to TDs is the change in preseason. It went from QBs play a series in game 1, play the first half in game 2, play 3 Qtrs in game 3, and take the 4th game off... Now QBs play a few series in preseason and are expected to just be on fire to start the season.
that preseason trend has been true for more than a decade though. why didnt it impact any other recent seasons?
No it has changed drastically since we went down to 3 preseason games. Some QBs don't even play in the preseason. Last year Daniel Jones took one series. It isn't the smae.
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In comment 16612651 Amtoft said:
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The slow start to TDs is the change in preseason. It went from QBs play a series in game 1, play the first half in game 2, play 3 Qtrs in game 3, and take the 4th game off... Now QBs play a few series in preseason and are expected to just be on fire to start the season.
that preseason trend has been true for more than a decade though. why didnt it impact any other recent seasons?
No it has changed drastically since we went down to 3 preseason games. Some QBs don't even play in the preseason. Last year Daniel Jones took one series. It isn't the smae.
but it went to 3 preseason games in 2021. we are comparing numbers this year to other recent years when there were 3 preseason games. i get that the trend appears downward from that event, but i think you are misremembering how little top qbs were playing in the preseason before they went down to 3. preseason stats arent on most player pages but as an example eli played 3 series in 2019 and only appeared in 1 game in 2018. the trend of brees, brady, rodgers, peyton, etc hardly playing in preseason began way before 2021 which is in part why they dropped the extra preseason. they didnt need 4 when most starting qbs only appeared in a max of 2.
Mahomes said a couple years ago that he doesn't throw it deep as much as he use to based on how the safeties play him as well.
Mahomes and Allen are the only 2 franchise QBs with Burrow/Stroud being there or really close to it.
The rest are whatever.
I agree. Think about the top NFC teams and their QB’s: Purdy, Goff, Hurts, Prescott. These are not great QB’s.
also remember almost every qb coming out now is dual threat. exclusively pocket passers are a dying breed. that was a big knock on stroud 2 years ago.
It’s the Giants spin on the popular “zero RB” strategy from fantasy football.
Other than Mahomes, Burrow, Allen.
Who else would you pay to see?
Hurts? Dak? Geno Smith? Brock purdy?
Other than Mahomes, Burrow, Allen.
Who else would you pay to see?
Hurts? Dak? Geno Smith? Brock purdy?
We've also seen red-hot next generation guys cool off significantly: Lawrence, Tua, Herbert.
The future of NFL QB'ing might just see an interchangeable glut of middle class QBs that rank anywhere between 5-25 year-over-year. Maybe they'll be a market correction to go with it if teams are able to get value from the salvage heap with guys like Geno, Baker and Darnold.
Jordan Love played like straight garbage against Philly
But offense is down across the board, and that is all because of passing being down. The per team yards average is below 320, which if that holds is the lowest in 20 seasons.
Through 2 weeks the team passing average is below 200 yards per game. There hasn't been a sub-200 average since 1992.
2023 - 59 total
2024 - on pace for 187
It would be so NYG-like to have that be the case after we watched Saquon walk out the door lol.
Half kidding on the Barkley point as I'm sure we'll wind up hurt but still.
No need to pine over Barkley. Through two games Singletary has looked better than Barkley did here last year anyway. We are not missing anything.
And no, Barkley would not look the same here this year behind our line, as opposed to the Eagles line.
I have no way to prove it, but my subjective eye-test tells me there is also better DB play/talent. In that Bears-Texans game, the secondaries for both teams seemed incredibly fast, active and recovered quickly. It was impressive. And I saw similar play in the Bucs/Detroit game and in the Steelers-Broncs game.
Maybe there is a surge in quality from the college pipeline at DB going around that has also snuck up on everyone.
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Jordan love, kyler, there are some more.
Jordan Love played like straight garbage against Philly
I wonder though how many QBs would have played well in that scenario, traveling to Brazil and playing on a terrible field to satiate Goodell's bizarre global expansion fetish.
mostly because QB play coming out of college is awful.
Mahomes and Allen are the only 2 franchise QBs with Burrow/Stroud being there or really close to it.
The rest are whatever.