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QB caused pressure...let's laugh to keep from crying

j_rud : 9/21/2024 11:41 am


The vertical axis indicates the number of pressures that result in sacks. In this regard Jones is right around the league average.

But dear Lord, check out that horizontal axis, which indicates pressures caused by the QB. Jones is by himself, 1/1, way off in fucking There Be Dragons territory.

For the first time in over a decade we have a competent and capable offensive line. They pick up stunts and open holes. They play sound football. We have a talented group of WRs who are freaking FAST and get open. We have some of the most innovative and creative offensive minds in modern football who have a clear vision for driving the ball downfield.

And the entire thing is being orchestrated by a QB who is essentially sacking himself.

this is almost entirely the MIN game  
Eric on Li : 9/21/2024 11:46 am : link
he only got sacked once against WSH but he ran himself into 3 or 4 of the 5 against Minnesota. how it evolves over the year is obviously something to keep an eye on, but the OL has looked the best it has in his time here and this is probably the single area where jones made the most improvement week 2 so there's hope.
Trend worth watching  
Blueworm : 9/21/2024 11:48 am : link
Two games is too hard to draw a conclusion, except to confirm my bias.
I agree that 2 games is not a good sample size  
eclipz928 : 9/21/2024 11:52 am : link
but it does speak to what I've seen with my own eyes with Jones throughout his career, which is that many of the sacks taken are self-inflicted and not necessarily due to just poor protection.
It was obvious in the Minnesota game  
larryflower37 : 9/21/2024 12:05 pm : link
He did not trust his line and left the pocket early. He made a big shift in the Washington game and stayed in longer and in most cases stayed clean long enough to make a good throw.
What a stud  
widmerseyebrow : 9/21/2024 12:12 pm : link
.
Statistical significance is apparently a foreign concept to some  
HBart : 9/21/2024 12:15 pm : link
Jones was pressured this year on 31% of his 70 dropbacks. That's 21 times.

Reading the chart,league QB average looks like 5%; Jones 12.5%, so there's a 7.5% delta over average -- and Jones has over twice the league average of self-inflicted pressure wounds though 2 games!!! Holy fucking shit!!!!

Oh, wait. Translated into numbers:

So thus far this season, assuming accuracy of this subjective stat, Jones has caused 12.5% of 21 pressure dropbacks; e.g. a total of 2.5 self-inflicted pressures. And that 2.5 is, through 2 games, 7.5% of 21 = 1.5 pressures worse than the average QB.

So on 70 dropbacks so far, Jones has caused somewhere between 1 and 2 more pressures than league average.

Yes, lets weep. But not the for QB. For the deterioration of the education system. Cause you're supposed to understand statistical significance before you can graduate high school.
RE: Statistical significance is apparently a foreign concept to some  
pivo : 9/21/2024 12:30 pm : link
In comment 16617319 HBart said:
Quote:
Jones was pressured this year on 31% of his 70 dropbacks. That's 21 times.

Reading the chart,league QB average looks like 5%; Jones 12.5%, so there's a 7.5% delta over average -- and Jones has over twice the league average of self-inflicted pressure wounds though 2 games!!! Holy fucking shit!!!!

Oh, wait. Translated into numbers:

So thus far this season, assuming accuracy of this subjective stat, Jones has caused 12.5% of 21 pressure dropbacks; e.g. a total of 2.5 self-inflicted pressures. And that 2.5 is, through 2 games, 7.5% of 21 = 1.5 pressures worse than the average QB.

So on 70 dropbacks so far, Jones has caused somewhere between 1 and 2 more pressures than league average.

Yes, lets weep. But not the for QB. For the deterioration of the education system. Cause you're supposed to understand statistical significance before you can graduate high school.

BBI hates it when you start talking facts, HBart...
HBart Rockin'  
Angus : 9/21/2024 12:49 pm : link
Let's get some more info. Note that I have given up on Daniel Jones, but would be happy to be wrong.
The Jonesians are at it again  
HomerJones45 : 9/21/2024 1:07 pm : link
The receivers are terrible!

The o-line doesn’t give Jones enough time!

Here we are in year 6 and it’s been the same story for 6 years in the pros and 4 in college.

Baker Mayfield carved up this Washington defense like a Thanksgiving turkey. Here we are dancing in the streets over 180 yards and 18 points and quelle surprise blaming the o-line.
It checks out with Minnesota game  
Breeze_94 : 9/21/2024 1:09 pm : link
A lot of hesitancy, slow to process. Protection was good enough, but QB couldn’t pull the trigger.
Yes that must be it.  
The Mike : 9/21/2024 1:10 pm : link
We need at least seven more years of date to achieve the requisite sample size to determine the precise correlation coefficient between DJ's pocket presence and his being the worst quarterback in NFL history with fifty or more starts. Now I understand why they keep starting him. It's all about statistical significance!
It's amazing.  
HBart : 9/21/2024 1:21 pm : link
It's OK to be stupid, but pointing out ones own idiocy just drives it home. If Jones is so heinous there will be oodles of terrible stats to point to. Why try and manufacture one?

Don't bother answering.
RE: It checks out with Minnesota game  
HBart : 9/21/2024 1:25 pm : link
In comment 16617353 Breeze_94 said:
Quote:
A lot of hesitancy, slow to process. Protection was good enough, but QB couldn’t pull the trigger.

I agree.

Conversely, last week, the common theme of his very few mistakes was pulling the trigger too fast, rather than letting routes develop.

And so?
How does this affect wins and losses.  
cpgiants : 9/21/2024 1:31 pm : link
Good stat and good analysis in this thread. Very interesting to consider the implications.

"....Jones has caused somewhere between 1 and 2 more pressures than league average."

So call it one per game, but this chart refers to pressures that result in sacks.

Taking a sack typically means that you don't score a touchdown on that drive.

So this is essentially costing us one drive per game where we don't have a chance to score a touchdown, and that's only compared to League average teams, not good ones.

That one play per game probably cost us two or three wins over the course of a season.

Why do we struggle against average teams?
Why do we never beat good teams?
Why do we lose close games that we feel like we can win?
Why do we have a best case scenario glass ceiling somewhere around 24 points every week for years?

And why is a 6-year player all the way to the left on that graphic, surrounded by inexperienced quarterbacks and rookies.

Let the Jones guys have their moment  
HardTruth : 9/21/2024 1:32 pm : link
The clock is ticking . We are likely 0-4 come Friday morning and even if we manage a win, we wont make it out of October
The only stat that matters: 22-38-1  
The Mike : 9/21/2024 1:43 pm : link
DJ needs to win his next seven consecutive starts just to achieve the winning percentage of Dave Brown.
RE: Let the Jones guys have their moment  
HBart : 9/21/2024 1:44 pm : link
In comment 16617362 HardTruth said:
Quote:
The clock is ticking . We are likely 0-4 come Friday morning and even if we manage a win, we wont make it out of October

Maybe. But that doesn't make a silly stat meaningful, nor trying to say otherwise any less dumb. If you're right, there will lots of shitty stats and results to gloat about. This isn't one of them.
Makes you think about the Andrew Thomas scapegoat comment  
Sean : 9/21/2024 1:56 pm : link
.
This is something a lot of us have talked about for a while  
arniefez : 9/21/2024 2:03 pm : link
The Giants have had terrible OLs for years and Daniel Jones causes a lot of sacks because he process the NFL game at a high school level.

Both things are true.

This year with average NFL OL play it's glaringly obvious.
RE: Statistical significance is apparently a foreign concept to some  
Stephen in Sofla : 9/21/2024 2:07 pm : link
I, too, agree with this cuz it has the maths.

Coronation does not equal consternation!
RE: This is something a lot of us have talked about for a while  
The Mike : 9/21/2024 2:12 pm : link
In comment 16617372 arniefez said:
Quote:
The Giants have had terrible OLs for years and Daniel Jones causes a lot of sacks because he process the NFL game at a high school level.

Both things are true.

This year with average NFL OL play it's glaringly obvious.


This ^
RE: The only stat that matters: 22-38-1  
56goat : 9/21/2024 2:22 pm : link
In comment 16617366 The Mike said:
Quote:
DJ needs to win his next seven consecutive starts just to achieve the winning percentage of Dave Brown.


And that stat is the truest measure.
RE: this is almost entirely the MIN game  
bw in dc : 9/21/2024 2:24 pm : link
In comment 16617306 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
he only got sacked once against WSH but he ran himself into 3 or 4 of the 5 against Minnesota. how it evolves over the year is obviously something to keep an eye on, but the OL has looked the best it has in his time here and this is probably the single area where jones made the most improvement week 2 so there's hope.


I had three of the five sacks in the Minn game directly on Jones. And he almost ran into two or three more but either escaped or got the ball off before being sacked.
What this graph indicates  
JohnF : 9/21/2024 2:59 pm : link
(and granted, it's a small sample, only two games) is that Jones is more likely to self sack against a good defense (Vikings) vs a garbage defense (Commanders).

Guess what. The Giants are going to face good to EXCELLENT defenses in the next six games. We should know at the end of the Dallas game if this trend continues. If it does, I don't expect Jones to be starting after that game.
RE: RE: this is almost entirely the MIN game  
HBart : 9/21/2024 3:01 pm : link
In comment 16617387 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 16617306 Eric on Li said:


Quote:


he only got sacked once against WSH but he ran himself into 3 or 4 of the 5 against Minnesota. how it evolves over the year is obviously something to keep an eye on, but the OL has looked the best it has in his time here and this is probably the single area where jones made the most improvement week 2 so there's hope.



I had three of the five sacks in the Minn game directly on Jones. And he almost ran into two or three more but either escaped or got the ball off before being sacked.

Yup. I'd concur that all the two and a half credited self-inflicted sacks came against Minnesota.

And?
I might be able to understand this if only I could read it. Big blur.  
Ivan15 : 9/21/2024 4:24 pm : link
.
The chart that includes 2023 isn’t much better  
ajr2456 : 9/21/2024 5:06 pm : link
.
Pressures - ( New Window )
 
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/21/2024 5:08 pm : link
I find sense in both HBart’s point and the ones disagreeing with him.
RE: RE: RE: this is almost entirely the MIN game  
bw in dc : 9/21/2024 5:18 pm : link
In comment 16617399 HBart said:
Quote:

I had three of the five sacks in the Minn game directly on Jones. And he almost ran into two or three more but either escaped or got the ball off before being sacked.


Yup. I'd concur that all the two and a half credited self-inflicted sacks came against Minnesota.

And?


And I'm agreeing with Eric's conclusion.
RE: …  
Mike from Ohio : 9/21/2024 5:21 pm : link
In comment 16617441 SFGFNCGiantsFan said:
Quote:
I find sense in both HBart’s point and the ones disagreeing with him.


The chart doesn’t mean much across two games. That is accurate. But when you look at the chart for 2023 and 2024 you see a certain pattern emerge. Daniel Jones creates a lot of sacks all by himself, which is what many have been saying on this site for years now.

Two things can be true at once. The Giants offensive line has been really bad, and Daniel Jones has been really bad. Not at all mutually exclusive.
Mike.  
SFGFNCGiantsFan : 9/21/2024 5:58 pm : link
That I agree with. The OL has sucked until this season and well…Jones is Jones.
RE: Makes you think about the Andrew Thomas scapegoat comment  
Mattman : 9/21/2024 7:31 pm : link
In comment 16617370 Sean said:
Quote:
.


Andrew Thomas threw his hands up when Daniel jones ran into a sack 1st week

Everyone has had a coworker that fucks things up and makes everyone look bad
RE: Trend worth watching  
Mattman : 9/21/2024 7:33 pm : link
In comment 16617307 Blueworm said:
Quote:
Two games is too hard to draw a conclusion, except to confirm my bias.


We have 6 years of watching his shitty post snap reads. Part of that is handling pressure. He doesn’t have a quick enough football mind. That he has shown after 6 years
There is great significance of the passage of time.  
gridirony : 9/21/2024 8:34 pm : link
I heard that somewhere, and at the time it made no sense. Now with reference to the Giants, it is slowly beginning to.
RE: The chart that includes 2023 isn’t much better  
colin : 9/21/2024 10:02 pm : link
In comment 16617438 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
. Pressures - ( New Window )


So does mean for Jones, every time there’s pressure he gets sacked? Or is that what it’s saying about ol’ Cutlets? ‘Cause if you asked me which of the 2 caused their own pressure, I would have said Cutlets in a heartbeat, and that DJ was the one who couldn’t evade.
Obviously not “every time”  
colin : 9/21/2024 10:03 pm : link
Just if I’m reading this as the OP described, it would be counterintuitive to what I see from these 2.
RE: Statistical significance is apparently a foreign concept to some  
santacruzom : 3:04 am : link
In comment 16617319 HBart said:
Quote:

So thus far this season, assuming accuracy of this subjective stat, Jones has caused 12.5% of 21 pressure dropbacks; e.g. a total of 2.5 self-inflicted pressures. And that 2.5 is, through 2 games, 7.5% of 21 = 1.5 pressures worse than the average QB.


I'm on my phone, it's 12 am, and I'm not getting out of bed to find my reading glasses. But doesn't the X axis reflect the percentage a QB caused pressure on his total number of dropbacks, instead of indicating what percentage of pressures the QB was "responsible" for?
RE: The chart that includes 2023 isn’t much better  
HBart : 7:36 am : link
In comment 16617438 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
. Pressures - ( New Window )

If you want to look at this rationally -- as in how much has Jone's really contributed to the sack problem based on this stat -- look at 2022, which had a nominally stable, mediocre-at-best but functional OL.

Whatever that number is, it's a good measure against the league for now, and for Jones improvement (or lack thereof) this season. That would be meaningful signal. 2023 is noise.
RE: The Jonesians are at it again  
section125 : 8:08 am : link
In comment 16617352 HomerJones45 said:
Quote:
The receivers are terrible!

The o-line doesn’t give Jones enough time!

Here we are in year 6 and it’s been the same story for 6 years in the pros and 4 in college.

Baker Mayfield carved up this Washington defense like a Thanksgiving turkey. Here we are dancing in the streets over 180 yards and 18 points and quelle surprise blaming the o-line.


Do you sit at home an think of ways to make up shit?

Nobody has said anything this year about the line except positives and same with the WRs.
RE: Statistical significance is apparently a foreign concept to some  
j_rud : 10:45 am : link
In comment 16617319 HBart said:
Quote:
Jones was pressured this year on 31% of his 70 dropbacks. That's 21 times.

Reading the chart,league QB average looks like 5%; Jones 12.5%, so there's a 7.5% delta over average -- and Jones has over twice the league average of self-inflicted pressure wounds though 2 games!!! Holy fucking shit!!!!

Oh, wait. Translated into numbers:

So thus far this season, assuming accuracy of this subjective stat, Jones has caused 12.5% of 21 pressure dropbacks; e.g. a total of 2.5 self-inflicted pressures. And that 2.5 is, through 2 games, 7.5% of 21 = 1.5 pressures worse than the average QB.

So on 70 dropbacks so far, Jones has caused somewhere between 1 and 2 more pressures than league average.

Yes, lets weep. But not the for QB. For the deterioration of the education system. Cause you're supposed to understand statistical significance before you can graduate high school.


Saturday was a lot busier than I'd anticipated, I never plan on posting and not checking back in so was glad to see this generated some discussion.

Of course over 2 games the sample size is small, but as others pointed out (and honestly what I had planned on doing) was linking the 2023 numbers as well, which are pretty consistent.

So while weeping for the education system is something we should all be doing, I'm gonna stand on the idea that Daniel Jones is holding back the offense and will continue to do so. Did you wanna offer some evidence to refute that? Perhaps we just need another season or 2 to *really* get a sense of what he has to offer.

Posting this at 11AM, crossing my fingers and begging to be wrong, but what is more likely today: the Giants winning because of Jones, or the Giants losing because of Jones?
RE: It's amazing.  
Go Terps : 11:54 am : link
In comment 16617358 HBart said:
Quote:
If Jones is so heinous there will be oodles of terrible stats to point to.


Here you go.

RE: RE: It's amazing.  
HardTruth : 12:23 pm : link
In comment 16617938 Go Terps said:
Quote:
In comment 16617358 HBart said:


Quote:


If Jones is so heinous there will be oodles of terrible stats to point to.



Here you go.



Daniel Jones came 2 passes short of an all-time NFL dubious record of most pass attempts without a TD at 153 passes last week.

He is already 1 and 2 at least passes to TDs to start a season since the invention of the forward pass in 2021 and 2023. He had 2 Tds to 160 passes in 2023 and 2 Tds to 185 passes in 2021. He probably would have topped that last year if he didn’t get injured.
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