Here's a line chart I put together from the 60 games Eli has played so far. (You might remember that I put all of his statistics into Excel shortly before Christmas.) This includes all of the wind and temperature information from the official NFL gamebooks and includes all of his playoff games, right up to his all time high rating of 132 in the Dallas game.
Enjoy:
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QBR = (0.6007x(temp))+39.778
QBR = (0.6007x(3))+39.778
QBR = 41.58
So, based on the historical data and trends, there is an 8.8 % chance that Eli will have a 41.58 QB Rating on Sunday
Again, because of the low r-squared, that is not deemed to be accurate or statistically significant
Wind is another story. In eleven games played where wind was 12mph or above, Eli has only one game with a rating over 80 vs seven games below 60. Many well below.
Now analysts and QB's have been saying for years that wind is the biggest factor affecting the passing game, so I suspect that every QB in the league would show the same trend. However, I also suspect that Eli is more affected than most because it seems to me he has alot of wobble in his passes. That wobble means more surface area exposed to the wind.
Perhaps a low temp + high winds might show more deterioration for Eli... though I suppose that would hold true for any QB unless he was the abominable snowman