Ok so it's the first preseason game and I'm not the type to get worked up over it. We had a few good moments, a bunch of bad ones, and a lot of correctable mistakes. I was just happy to see the young guys get playing time.
But short yardage still bothers me, and it's a Coughlin / Gilbride problem. Brandon Jacobs *is not* a good short yardage back. He's proven this time and time again over the last several years. Sure, I would love to see him run more decisively and physically in 3rd or 4th and 1, but sometimes you've just got to accept certain limitations on players and move on.
Jacobs flat out stinks in short yardage. Part of it is him, and part of it is just being a huge guy. His size works against him (contrary to Coughlin's belief in short yardage power) because he's such a big target, and he takes longer to start churning his legs. He has also repeatedly made bad running decisions in these situations, bouncing runs a little too wide or turning his body sideways to make him an easier tackle.
I know its not the regular season yet. But we gave Jacobs our first short yardage opportunity, and we didn't convert. I'm really hoping Coughlin and Gilbride can overcome this one stubborn aspect of their play calling philosophy and use Bradshaw, or Ware, or some one else to handle short yardage. It's been a major flaw of our offense the last few years, and without looking at the data, it must be overwhelmingly clear that it's not working.
Anyone know where to find short yardage data? I would like to see it and confirm...
Also on a side note... I would have liked to see Coughlin go for it on that 4th and 1" during the game. But no, we punted (good to give the punter practice I guess) but it would have been nice to pump up our OL a bit...
When you play a team that either controls field position or runs up and down the field, holding onto the ball is paramount and I feel like we give up on 3rd and short by just trying to force Jacobs (outside mostly) to try and get the yardage.
Can we please develop a screen pass or some type of short post that can move the chains and re-set the offense for first down rather than showcasing Dodge or Coughlin on the sideline trying to decide whether Tynes can make the kick or not!
Better personnel will result in better results.
Brandon Jacobs has demonstrated over and over that he is a terrible short yardage back. Otherwise, he's a very good player and important to our offense. But it's just a skill he doesn't have, and at this point in his career, we are better off trying something different.
I realize that a lot of people over react to meaningless games like the one against Carolina, and this place can get cluttered with BS threads. But this is something we've been doing for 4+ years, and seeing it again this preseason (even once) was alarming to me.
IMO, we should have two short yardage packages.
One with "big" personnel and AB as the back - AB with this personnel would be more efficient as he can fine smaller creases and bounce out of closed run lanes faster.
The second with 40 or 31 personnel with Jacobs as the back. This would spread the defense and give Jacobs a much better chance of picking up the yardage. If the defense still packs it in tight, Eli could check to a quick pass.
Maybe I am over simplifying things, but it's what I would do.
You can mix and match with 12 and 21 personnel
I love Jacobs running style, but not on short yardage. It takes so long for him to get back to the LOS that it feels like a slow motion replay.
and they wind up getting worked up over it..It's like clockwork
If anything, starting with that qualifier distracted from the point of the thread. My mistake. Let's talk about football.
Percentage of runs on third or fourth down, two yards or less to go, that achieved a first down or touchdown. Also includes runs on first-and-goal or second-and-goal from the two-yard line or closer.
The 2010 stats say that the Giants are below average at Power Success - a team ranking of 59% vs. a league average of 61%. Considering our team rushes for one of the highest averages per rush in the league, that implies that it isn't just a predictability issue - we simply don't do power running as well as most other teams do. The decision to go with a more "powerful" center in Baas suggests the coaches view that as much a personnel issue as a scheme issue.
Football Outsiders OLine Stats
We're not perfect. Sure I'd like to pick up 3rd and very short all the time. Deficient in some areas, proficient in others. The way of the NFL for every team
So I'm with you on all of that. I realize we've been fortunate to have a pretty great offense the last several years, and at some points these criticisms do become nitpicky. We've basically been a top 10 team each of the last 5 years. Off memory I'd say that our last 16x5 games have been meaningful. Was our last "meaningless" regular season game against NE in 2007? If so that's pretty cool.
That being said, this just feels like such an obvious and easy change to make. It's not a schematic change, or a wholesale philosophy change. It's just that one specific player continues to be placed in a role where he hasn't found success. Just my opinion.
But the frustration of him going wide gives a defensive team time to react, and any power he has is neutralized, going east/west, rather than north/south....
Jacobs (and the team's) biggest failures come when the pile/LOS get pushed into the backfield and get to Jacobs before he can get any sort of forward momentum.
That's on the wing player for not sustaining his block. However, Jacobs is 6'4 264 damn lbs! You can't go down that easily when someone goes at your ankles. But, technically that's on the offensive player at the wing. He got owned, and the defender made a great play.
If you can stop a 6'4 264 lb back 1 on 1 by going at his ankles and someone stopping him to fall 1 yard, you deserve props.
Anish - you're a football guy. What is your take on Jacobs in short yardage generally?
Like I said, Carolina wasn't Jacobs fault, but how does a 6'4 giant not get 1 yard? Somehow the player wrapped up both ankles and stopped him. That's one play you just shake your head and wonder how a man that big and strong gets stopped by his ankles.
Bradshaw and maybe Dscott or somebody may suit the power formations better.
both can be run on 3rd and short and both demand good oline play.
2. the run blocking problem has been a few years in the making. I mocked petrus, he seems ok so far, but also wanted us to draft a guard high this year.
however, that's not how the draft broke down and JR was correct to get the guys he did.
3. you can bet that TC wants to improve the simple short yardage game and direct off guard running attack...and will have to make sure that Gilbride does not try to rely just on 'fancy' for another year.
4. all this may entail moving DD back to tackle and Boothe to left guard for a while.
run first is where we need to get at this time.
Jacobs is a real plus/minus kind of player. His big plus is momentum. Once he gets that mass of his moving up the field he moves with impressive speed and force. The negatives are that he is not effective at changing direction, finding and exploiting narrow gaps and most importantly has relatively poor balance. A short yardage power play as most of us imagine it favors a back who can work in a crowded space by finding and working through a bubble or crack in the line. Jacobs, despite his size (or even because of it) is not that player. His lack of balance is what frustrates me the most, while his straight line speed is what always surprises me.
The one thing I would caution against is the 59% vs. 61% thing. Until we see more granular statistics, we can't assume that tells us anything about our short yardage situation.
First, it's important to know which backs have which success rates. That's just on the team level, so it doesn't say anything about Jacobs.
Second, it's important to know when these opportunities happen (which part of game, where on the field). There are times where we are running out the clock and it happens to be 3rd and 1. Those count in this statistic.
Third, the formation we used at the time. We use a shotgun RB draw for a lot of 3rd down running plays. Those count in this statistic.
Fourth, its only 2010. My position is that this has been a problem for at least 3 years.
So there's a lot of noise in that team level statistic, and introducing it into this argument really doesn't give us much clarity (although thanks to Lawyer for finding it)
1) That Bradshaw hasn't had much more success than Jaconbs in converting short-yardage situations.
2) That the Giants numbers in short-yardage statistics are not much different than most teams in the league (i.e., that we aren't as horrible in those situations as most people here seem to think we are).
2008 - 23
2009 - 20
2010 - 18
At least it has been improving!
Also, nobody has yet been able to make a statistical comparison between Bradshaw and Jacobs. I think you believe, as do I, that it's a team problem, not a RB problem. The Giants line with guys like Seubert and O'Hara has been effective at pulling, but not as stong bulling ahead. Perhaps putting Baas and Diehl inside will help remedy that.
For 2010, the top 9 Power Ranked teams had a Power Success of 68% or better. The majority of the teams (rank 10 through 26) were between 54% and 66%, all stradling the NFL's 61% average. The bottom 7 teams were 52% or worse.
Those numbers don't reflect the number of opportunities, or a number of other pertinent facts about the situation. Also, note that GB was only at 55%, as was Baltimore (considered a power running team). Also, several of the top teams in this category (Miami, Cleveland, Arizona, Minnesota, Houston, Buffalo) did not necessarily have successful seasons overall.
lacking a receiving scatback (although daryl scott may be one)
and having some big play wrs....
being: a team that has trived on play action
being: a team that has won when it can eat the clock
all this BEGs for better than average short yardage game...not lesser than.
this must be fixed.
1. accept that beatty cannot get it done
2. accept that DD is a better tackle than guard
3. get over 'boothe does not look the part'
(or maybe i am wrong)
4. put the onus on run blocking for the rest of the preseason, let EM And the WRS get to one field...and the starting OLine to another. run run run and run.
But I'm still not sure I like the way the Football Outsiders Power Rushing stat is being used here ...I just don't see how its helping us frame the conversation.
TC may have wanted to massive guards this year...who were all drafted before our spots.
I am more confident with a line of:
Deihl, Boothe, Bass, Snee, Mac
and adding back an element of smash mouth.
at a certain point...the finesse needs to be set up by the threat of smash mouth...and if you cannot do the simple shit nobody will fall for the fancy shit.
1. The Giants offensive line was not brutish, but more of a finesse and quick line that is great at pulling and getting to the outside. However, they get pushed back in power runs up the gut.
2. At 6'4, it takes Jacobs a while to accelerate, far longer than smaller backs-- This is what makes Usain Bolt such a freak. No one at his height should be able to get off to such a quick acceleration burst. So because the O-line hasn't pushed the D-line back, Jacobs is not at a high enough acceleration to hit the hole at hte point of contact.