They won 90 last year and this year they will have:
Wright instead of Campbell playing 3B
A full year of Cespedes
A full year of Conforto instead of Mayberry et al
A full year of Thor and Matz
I don't see how that does not add 5-10 wins. Obviously injuries can be a factor. But other than Wright, this is a young and healthy group.
Division will be a bit tougher, so subtract a few wins for that. Colon probably won't be as effective and Mets don't have backup starters so injuries to the Big 4 could hurt. But Wheeler coming back offsets some of that.
There is always stuff you can nitpick, like letting Murphy go to your number one rival on a very affordable deal, but overall this team is strong, top to bottom.
They won 90 last year and this year they will have:
Wright instead of Campbell playing 3B
A full year of Cespedes
A full year of Conforto instead of Mayberry et al
A full year of Thor and Matz
I don't see how that does not add 5-10 wins. Obviously injuries can be a factor. But other than Wright, this is a young and healthy group.
Division will be a bit tougher, so subtract a few wins for that. Colon probably won't be as effective and Mets don't have backup starters so injuries to the Big 4 could hurt. But Wheeler coming back offsets some of that.
There is always stuff you can nitpick, like letting Murphy go to your number one rival on a very affordable deal, but overall this team is strong, top to bottom.
Granderson most certainly isn't young and TDA SO FAR is the opposite of healthy. I think injuries are a real concern (hopefully they won't be) but Lagares also is pretty injury prone as well.
Duda has done it once
Lagares has done it once
Granderson is generally very healthy but he IS 35
Wright... we know his deal health wise
TDA... seeing is believing for now
Walker has played 140 more games 2 total times in his career
Cespedes has also done it twice
Injuries and depth are going to come into play pretty huge with this team.
agree a big part of it will come down to health. Last year by this time, the Mets had already lost Wheeler, Edgin, Mejia (to suspension), and shortly after lost Blevins for all of and Wright for a lot of the season.
the Nats had injuries of their own playing without Rendon, Zimmerman, Strasburg, and Werth much or at least part of the year among others.
The lineup is light years ahead of 2/3's of last year. A totally different galaxy. If Wright goes to the DL at any point he may never get his starting spot back (kidding...kind of). Lagares/ADA are excellent backup OFers. The starting rotation is excellent and it's going to add Wheeler at some point. This team is going to beat up on bad teams.
My #1 concern is overusing Familia. He might be the most important single player on the team just because he's so much better than the next best option in the BP, but that's more of a postseason problem than a regular season problem.
There were no readings released yesterday. But he hit 94 a number of times the outing before that. Quite of few beat reporters said deGrom leaked he was purposely taking it easy. Guess we'll see.
Injuries are the least of my concern (aside from our starting aces
and maybe Familia of course) I say bring injuries on. The REASON Im at 95 is BECAUSE of our depth. Having starting players like De Aza, Lagares, and Flores on the bench and a top 50 catcher as recently as a year ago means we are covered for the most part. Herrera is in AAA waiting for a chance. The bar is so low on Wright literally anything he does is gravy. The Mets are expecting nothing. We have a gazillion backend starting options in AAA if we need filler for a while. We have a back up LOOGY in AAA(Edgin) We have a backup ROOGY in AAA(Goeddel) we have a back up long man in AAA(Gilmartin).
This team can be blown to smithereens with injuries(in the short term) and still be better than most teams in baseball. (knock on wood)
Im also factoring in a mid season addition if its needed(just like last year). If there's a hole, Sandy will fill it.
RE: 96 and very surprised by the overall conservatism
The lineup is light years ahead of 2/3's of last year. A totally different galaxy. If Wright goes to the DL at any point he may never get his starting spot back (kidding...kind of). Lagares/ADA are excellent backup OFers. The starting rotation is excellent and it's going to add Wheeler at some point. This team is going to beat up on bad teams.
My #1 concern is overusing Familia. He might be the most important single player on the team just because he's so much better than the next best option in the BP, but that's more of a postseason problem than a regular season problem.
I approve this message. I will say this. I expect the Mets to score a lot more runs this year for all the reasons you just mentioned. I don't think there's going to be as many 3-2 games, 2-1 games, ect as there was for much of last year, especially in the first half. Expect a few more laughers and Familia to get more breathers. Also, Reed has had a fantastic spring, Henderson is throwing hard and last time that happened he was a closer for the Brewers, and Bastardo has closed for spurts as well. If Familia is over used early its on Collins. Should be no reason for it. All that, and I still think we'll add a McGee at the deadline too.
And weirdly I feel that this is a conservative number while also being afraid they won't get to 94, lol. Realistically, I feel like this team could get 94+ wins if they have relative health. They are prone to strikeouts and cold streaks more than most of the top teams (IMO) and that scares me a bit. Plus, the Nats are going to be a battle. They have a real nice team and of they put it together, watch out.
I still think the wild card comes out of the Central.
The Nats should be very good. I like us better on paper for now but that doesn't mean much. The biggest equalizer could be Turner and Giolito. If they come up and are the next mid-season 2015 Syndergaard and Conforto the Mets and Nats could be neck and neck down the stretch heading to the playoffs.
That said, if that happens, we'll both make the playoffs.
Seeing the media heads and sites mostly putting the mets at
sub 90 wins for the season is confusing. They won 90 games last season with an injury riddled roster most of the year. Their pitching is better, their lineup is better, bench is better...but they are projected to have less wins? Doesn't make sense. And I know a lot of teams are projected with conservative win totals but it just makes me look at stat-heads less seriously.
I mean, anything can happen but this should be a really really good team.
Atlanta (19)
Philly (19)
Colorado (7)
Milwaukee (7)
San Diego (7)
Cincinati (6)
How many times are those teams beating Harvey, JdG, Thor, Matz, and eventually Wheeler? I'm not saying Washington, Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, or SF won't end up winning a ton of games also but this team's depth is going to make it awfully hard on lesser quality teams.
I think they improve on their Home Field once again this year and win "mid-50" at Citi. Opponents dread coming into Queens -- hitting streaks are snapped, batting averages shrink and total K's skyrocket. The Mets' Road record is a little better too thanks to consistent pitching efforts up and down the rotation.
But the Nationals play well for Dusty, it's a dog-fight all summer long. The Mets pull away in August with another 20 - 8 record. They're good for 95 wins this season.
LGM !!!
crazy fact - every team I listed would have lowest AL wins over/under
Worst team in the AL is projected to be the A's at 75.5 wins. 3 of the teams above are mid-60's, 3 are low 70's. NL has some very good teams and some very bad teams.
the playoffs are going to be a bloodbath. Im not worried about us getting there so much but buckle your safety belts. If the Giants or Cardinals get back in its been there done that. If the Nats get in they potentially have a "Big 3" of Sherzer, Stras, and Giolito to rival our own with all kinds of drama attached to them if Murphy is on their playoff roster. The Cubs will be a year matured with some grizzled vets sprinkled in. It's going to be all out WAR.
sub 90 wins for the season is confusing. They won 90 games last season with an injury riddled roster most of the year. Their pitching is better, their lineup is better, bench is better...but they are projected to have less wins? Doesn't make sense. And I know a lot of teams are projected with conservative win totals but it just makes me look at stat-heads less seriously.
I mean, anything can happen but this should be a really really good team.
I think a lot of the predictions are not factoring in platooning. For example, Walker can't hit lefties but more likely that not, Flores will start at 2B against a LHP. Lagares is also going to start against LHP, spelling either Conforto or Grandy.
So take Walker's 550 OPS agst LHP and replace it with Flores .900+ OPS and Mets project to score a lot more runs.
Also, I think most are following Keith Law's lead on Matz and projecting him as unlikely to make 30 starts.
So, if you combine those factors with the ones Dan mentioned, then 89 wins is reasonable. But I think Matz is fine and I think Terry is going to platoon like crazy. Biggest "if" might actually be TDA. But I think he is a victim of bad luck because his injuries seem unrelated.
Can't believe the new season is finally just about here.
Assuming reasonable health, I see no reason why this team shouldn't win more than 90 games. It's a better team on paper than the one we had last year and a MUCH better team than the one we had prior to the deadline.
Injuries will happen, it's baseball and it's a long season.. but as long as nothing devastating happens I think we'll be in good shape.
My honest fear is that the Mets are going to do exactly what the Rangers did. The Rangers kind of snuck up on people in 2014 and made a run all the way to the Finals and then lost to LA in an eerily similar fashion to the way the Mets lost to KC. Had a lead in game 1... lost the lead at the end and then lost in extras. Won Game 3 but lost in 5.. almost all of the games were winnable or within reach.
So I feel like the Mets, much like the Rangers will go into this year, have a great regular season and probably win their division.. and then lose in like Game 7 of the NLCS. It just feels like it's going to be so much harder to get back to the World Series now... I just hope we don't look back and think "man.. 2015 was the year.. " the same way we kinda looked at 2006 for nearly a decade. I know the Royals lost and then got back and won but it's just so hard to do.
Nevertheless, I am very excited about this team and am just going to enjoy the season. Crazy how different the expectations have become in just one year.
To a T. I think people seriously underestimate how hard it is to get to the WS once you're in. If we make the playoffs at all, its a successful season for me. Get me to the dance, Ill take our chances with our starters every year. Im fine with it. Go 5 times and maybe we get a ring or two out of it. Look at the Giants and Cardinals. They are fantastic teams and franchises but they don't win every year. They aren't "givens". I get the feeling Mets fans are expecting a WS title or bust which is insanely unrealistic. We were a Murphy HR away from losing in the first round last year to the Dodgers.
There's also too much failure and randomness in baseball for teams to perform on command in a short series. Its still a game where you are successful from failing 7 out of 10 times. Over 162 games it all bears out, but over 5? Anything can really happen. Baseball is weird that way which is why you always have random postseason heroes influencing the game. Its almost cheap in a sense but I guess it makes it exciting.
All that said, we are one of the best teams in baseball built to compete with anyone. Lets see what happens. Here's to a great 2016. Cant wait.
On the job. Then he loses interest. The Nationals were poorly managed last year. Those 2 are close. The Cubs and Cardinals are close, maybe Pittsburgh, too, if a couple of their top rookies p!ay as well as they should. Dodgers and Giants at each other's throats. Some really good teams will miss out. The NL is a bifurcated league. Some crap teams are going to allow the powers to post gaudy records.
I am a starting pitcher guy. So I will take the Mets even before my beloved Cubs. But you better have your steel-belted jock straps on this season.
I think they're more like the 1999 / 2000 / 2001 A's
Did the A's sneak up on people in 99? Yes. But they won more games year after year because they had Hudson, Mulder, Zito. I think it could be easily argued that was the best group of starters prior to the group we currently have assembled. That kind of pitching wins a lot of games when there's any sort of talent around them.
but ZIPS has Wright and Flores putting up identical numbers over the course of a full season. That tells me Wright can get hit by a bus tomorrow and never play again and it doesn't move the needle in any direction an inch.
I think the Wright stuff is getting a little blown out of proportion. I love the guy but the Mets aren't counting on him. They have hedged against him performing. Anything he gives us (and I actually do think it will be more than nothing) is all frosting.
on the Nats in the interim. Who's playing 3B if Rendon gets hurt? What happens if 38 year old Werth can't play LF or gets hurt? Taylor? He was laughably bad last year. Good luck! Who's playing first if Zimmerman gets nicked up? Do the Nats have a catcher with Plawecki's upside in reserve? To me this is the clear reason the Mets have the edge... for now.
Similar season to 1985, when they also won 98 games. I think they'll beat the Gnats out for the division title and then make it deep into the playoffs, only to lose in the NLCS to thr Cardinals.
I don't see the offense being as good as people think. Granderson was such a key part of it last year but that was an outlier season for him and at 35 I don't expect him to repeat it.
Likewise Cespedes will probably revert to the player he's been during most of his career which is to say not a very good cleanup hitter.
On the other hand I think the bullpen will be very good, in addition to the starting pitching.
This team still lacks speed, which will make it too reliant on the long ball, and unable to manufacture runs
Too much expected of Duda in the 4 spot. Lifetime average w RISP isn't good, and we all know he is wildly inconsistent.
Murphy's grit and consistency will be missed.
I agree that Syndergaard emerges as best pitcher on this team.
They'll struggle to score runs from time to time, but that rotation will keep them in many, many games...
They won 90 last year and this year they will have:
Wright instead of Campbell playing 3B
A full year of Cespedes
A full year of Conforto instead of Mayberry et al
A full year of Thor and Matz
I don't see how that does not add 5-10 wins. Obviously injuries can be a factor. But other than Wright, this is a young and healthy group.
Division will be a bit tougher, so subtract a few wins for that. Colon probably won't be as effective and Mets don't have backup starters so injuries to the Big 4 could hurt. But Wheeler coming back offsets some of that.
There is always stuff you can nitpick, like letting Murphy go to your number one rival on a very affordable deal, but overall this team is strong, top to bottom.
They won 90 last year and this year they will have:
Wright instead of Campbell playing 3B
A full year of Cespedes
A full year of Conforto instead of Mayberry et al
A full year of Thor and Matz
I don't see how that does not add 5-10 wins. Obviously injuries can be a factor. But other than Wright, this is a young and healthy group.
Division will be a bit tougher, so subtract a few wins for that. Colon probably won't be as effective and Mets don't have backup starters so injuries to the Big 4 could hurt. But Wheeler coming back offsets some of that.
There is always stuff you can nitpick, like letting Murphy go to your number one rival on a very affordable deal, but overall this team is strong, top to bottom.
Granderson most certainly isn't young and TDA SO FAR is the opposite of healthy. I think injuries are a real concern (hopefully they won't be) but Lagares also is pretty injury prone as well.
Lagares has done it once
Granderson is generally very healthy but he IS 35
Wright... we know his deal health wise
TDA... seeing is believing for now
Walker has played 140 more games 2 total times in his career
Cespedes has also done it twice
Injuries and depth are going to come into play pretty huge with this team.
the Nats had injuries of their own playing without Rendon, Zimmerman, Strasburg, and Werth much or at least part of the year among others.
My #1 concern is overusing Familia. He might be the most important single player on the team just because he's so much better than the next best option in the BP, but that's more of a postseason problem than a regular season problem.
There were no readings released yesterday. But he hit 94 a number of times the outing before that. Quite of few beat reporters said deGrom leaked he was purposely taking it easy. Guess we'll see.
This team can be blown to smithereens with injuries(in the short term) and still be better than most teams in baseball. (knock on wood)
Im also factoring in a mid season addition if its needed(just like last year). If there's a hole, Sandy will fill it.
My #1 concern is overusing Familia. He might be the most important single player on the team just because he's so much better than the next best option in the BP, but that's more of a postseason problem than a regular season problem.
I approve this message. I will say this. I expect the Mets to score a lot more runs this year for all the reasons you just mentioned. I don't think there's going to be as many 3-2 games, 2-1 games, ect as there was for much of last year, especially in the first half. Expect a few more laughers and Familia to get more breathers. Also, Reed has had a fantastic spring, Henderson is throwing hard and last time that happened he was a closer for the Brewers, and Bastardo has closed for spurts as well. If Familia is over used early its on Collins. Should be no reason for it. All that, and I still think we'll add a McGee at the deadline too.
I still think the wild card comes out of the Central.
The Nats should be very good. I like us better on paper for now but that doesn't mean much. The biggest equalizer could be Turner and Giolito. If they come up and are the next mid-season 2015 Syndergaard and Conforto the Mets and Nats could be neck and neck down the stretch heading to the playoffs.
That said, if that happens, we'll both make the playoffs.
I mean, anything can happen but this should be a really really good team.
Philly (19)
Colorado (7)
Milwaukee (7)
San Diego (7)
Cincinati (6)
How many times are those teams beating Harvey, JdG, Thor, Matz, and eventually Wheeler? I'm not saying Washington, Chicago, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, or SF won't end up winning a ton of games also but this team's depth is going to make it awfully hard on lesser quality teams.
But the Nationals play well for Dusty, it's a dog-fight all summer long. The Mets pull away in August with another 20 - 8 record. They're good for 95 wins this season.
LGM !!!
Degrom 19-8
Matz 17-10
Harvey 17-11
Big sexy 10-10
Wheeler 5-4
I mean, anything can happen but this should be a really really good team.
I think a lot of the predictions are not factoring in platooning. For example, Walker can't hit lefties but more likely that not, Flores will start at 2B against a LHP. Lagares is also going to start against LHP, spelling either Conforto or Grandy.
So take Walker's 550 OPS agst LHP and replace it with Flores .900+ OPS and Mets project to score a lot more runs.
Also, I think most are following Keith Law's lead on Matz and projecting him as unlikely to make 30 starts.
So, if you combine those factors with the ones Dan mentioned, then 89 wins is reasonable. But I think Matz is fine and I think Terry is going to platoon like crazy. Biggest "if" might actually be TDA. But I think he is a victim of bad luck because his injuries seem unrelated.
Assuming reasonable health, I see no reason why this team shouldn't win more than 90 games. It's a better team on paper than the one we had last year and a MUCH better team than the one we had prior to the deadline.
Injuries will happen, it's baseball and it's a long season.. but as long as nothing devastating happens I think we'll be in good shape.
My honest fear is that the Mets are going to do exactly what the Rangers did. The Rangers kind of snuck up on people in 2014 and made a run all the way to the Finals and then lost to LA in an eerily similar fashion to the way the Mets lost to KC. Had a lead in game 1... lost the lead at the end and then lost in extras. Won Game 3 but lost in 5.. almost all of the games were winnable or within reach.
So I feel like the Mets, much like the Rangers will go into this year, have a great regular season and probably win their division.. and then lose in like Game 7 of the NLCS. It just feels like it's going to be so much harder to get back to the World Series now... I just hope we don't look back and think "man.. 2015 was the year.. " the same way we kinda looked at 2006 for nearly a decade. I know the Royals lost and then got back and won but it's just so hard to do.
Nevertheless, I am very excited about this team and am just going to enjoy the season. Crazy how different the expectations have become in just one year.
There's also too much failure and randomness in baseball for teams to perform on command in a short series. Its still a game where you are successful from failing 7 out of 10 times. Over 162 games it all bears out, but over 5? Anything can really happen. Baseball is weird that way which is why you always have random postseason heroes influencing the game. Its almost cheap in a sense but I guess it makes it exciting.
All that said, we are one of the best teams in baseball built to compete with anyone. Lets see what happens. Here's to a great 2016. Cant wait.
I am a starting pitcher guy. So I will take the Mets even before my beloved Cubs. But you better have your steel-belted jock straps on this season.
Its going to be harder this season with the target on our backs as the defending NL champion. The team will be getting their best punches.
I think the Wright stuff is getting a little blown out of proportion. I love the guy but the Mets aren't counting on him. They have hedged against him performing. Anything he gives us (and I actually do think it will be more than nothing) is all frosting.
Likewise Cespedes will probably revert to the player he's been during most of his career which is to say not a very good cleanup hitter.
On the other hand I think the bullpen will be very good, in addition to the starting pitching.
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This team still lacks speed, which will make it too reliant on the long ball, and unable to manufacture runs
Too much expected of Duda in the 4 spot. Lifetime average w RISP isn't good, and we all know he is wildly inconsistent.
Murphy's grit and consistency will be missed.
I agree that Syndergaard emerges as best pitcher on this team.
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I assume there is a typo somewhere - for the Blue Jays, the grid shows them winning 92 games, but the article states 97 wins...
Adam Rubin said to put him down for 92.