NFT: Official BBI Mets wins prediction thread!

I think every team in the division can expect a better season, except the Marlins with the loss of JF.

Injuries will be a factor, but I still like the makeup of this team.

Due to injuries and get 87 wins

Braves winning 81
Phillies 77
Marlins 68

and saying 90.

We have players all over the place that are likely to miss time due to injury both in the lineup and pitching staff. Love the talent but in the end those injuries will keep the win total in check.

It will be a close race with the nationals and the healthier team will win the division with the runner up slated for a Wild Card berth.

Win 94

and the division crown

In comment 13412756 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Braves winning 81 Phillies 77 Marlins 68

It hurts me to say this but I would be shocked if the Braves win 81 games. I think they end up with 73-78 wins. They will likely struggle out of the gate but really improve during the second half after some of the young studs arrive like SS/2B Ozzie Albies, LHP Sean Newcomb, LHP AJ Minter, LHP Max Fried, OF Dustin Peterson, and 3B Rio Ruiz.

I see the Braves rotation keeping them in games during the first half and the lineup is decent if healthy. Second half I see them getting better too. Phillies are further away IMO and the Marlins pitching is awful.

I'm super optimistic this year

.

However, I will take whatever number of wins it takes to win the division and avoid the one game wild card.

Year IMO. There's no depth behind TDA and Duda and they are both possible injury risks. So far so good as both are coming off nice springs and Smith might be an option second half possibly. There's a ton of depth at every other spot though. Rotation and bullpen will be top 2-3 in the league, if not all of baseball. I say Gsellman is in the running for rookie of the year.

Obviously we can't lose our top stars like Cespedes and Syndergaard but neither could any team.

And win the division by 2 games over Washington.

In comment 13412782 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

I see the Braves rotation keeping them in games during the first half and the lineup is decent if healthy. Second half I see them getting better too. Phillies are further away IMO and the Marlins pitching is awful.

Agreed I predict the Mets to win 91 games and finish atop the NL East. I think the Nats will experience a few injuries to their SP's and their lack of depth will be their downfall. The Marlins are in the beginning of a long rebuilding period with one of the worst farm systems in the game.
As for the Braves rotation I expect Jaime Garcia to have a bounce back season and be dealt by the deadline for a couple of solid prospects. I think Colon will remain with the team all season as they will value his leadership over the limited offers they receive which will likely be little more than a couple of lottery tickets. I expect Colon to finish with an ERA in the low 4's before moving to the pen later in the year due to the arrival of the young arms. I expect Dickey to struggle this season and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he is let go later in the season.

I think this is our year.

Last year was an injury-marred, WS hangover season.

I think this year we are going to win it all.

LGM

Against the Mets the other day. I think he'll be decent/annoying this year against us. I think you'll grow to like him.

In comment 13412815 arcarsenal said:

Quote:

I think this is our year. Last year was an injury-marred, WS hangover season. I think this year we are going to win it all. LGM

Whooo!

In comment 13412819 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Against the Mets the other day. I think he'll be decent/annoying this year against us. I think you'll grow to like him.

I hope so. Out of the three veteran starters they added this offseason Dickey was the move I liked the least. I would have preferred to see them give Aaron Blair a shot as the 5th starter since they aren't ready to compete this year anyway. I am very excited about Mike Foltynewicz as he flashed big time last year and was very good in spring training. I expect him to breakout and be more consistent this season and show some of the ace level ability that he possesses.

But provided their arms stay healthy, 93 or 94 wins. I think the Mets, Dodgers, Nats, or Cubs will represent the NL in the WS.

Rooting for the Mets for your guys sake.

this year, anything that is a question is answered with a resounding positive and the Mets win 98 games, win the NL East and beat the Red Sox in the World Series 31 years after the that last time.

That's what I'm talking about! ;)

not enough offense, and once again they have failed to address this by adding a significant bat to the lineup, so I predict they end up in second once again to the Nats, unfortunately.

Oh and by the way that bat is on the Nats...

Ws

In comment 13412844 spike said:

Quote:

Ws

Gotta win the division games against the Nats to get the div title

this year. Mets win 96 games. I think the Nationals will win a similar number though so it'll be a dogfight all year.

Win the NL East.

Assuming we don't get destroyed with injuries again, that's an attainable win total. I think there is more than enough offense on this team if they play to the back of their baseball cards.

Cespedes, Walker, Duda, Bruce, and even Granderson and the potential of Conforto in the wings...how many more big bats do we need? All we need is for these guys to play like they can and stay on the field.

If the Mets are adding 14/15 Duda to the lineup that might just be the biggest offensive addition in baseball. Bruce was only here for 2 months last year and was ice cold (he's a streaky guy) so conceivably he could add some offense also. I'm not expecting TDA to do a whole lot but we know he's capable of providing more than last year. Reyes is another addition who we didn't have for 4 months last year. TJ Rivera, Nimmo, Conforto , and Cheech are major league ready now and provide much more depth. Guys like Rosario are a level away. I see a major jump in offensive production this year if reasonably healthy.

Now all these high win predictions are making me nervous. Lol. Where's Dan to keep us in check? ;)

In comment 13412851 PhiPsi125 said:

Quote:

Assuming we don't get destroyed with injuries again, that's an attainable win total. I think there is more than enough offense on this team if they play to the back of their baseball cards. Cespedes, Walker, Duda, Bruce, and even Granderson and the potential of Conforto in the wings...how many more big bats do we need? All we need is for these guys to play like they can and stay on the field.

Damn, look at this guy! All... positive! :)

measures, the Mets offense should be average at worst and maybe really good if guys like Duda/TDA deliver nice seasons for us.

IMO, the biggest weakness is team defense. It's weak throughout both IF and OF. I don't think it's a fatal flaw though given our pitching and the way the current game is trending (more Ks, more HR, more BBs, less balls in play) but it's something that our bats and arms will need to overcome.

The Mets win 94 games by improving against their own division. The Pitching Staff stabilizes, even though Steven Matz doesn't come back to the Major Leagues until June. The David Wright dilemma is resolved, he doesn't get a single at bat this year. Jay Bruce has a hot first half and is traded to the American league.....where he goes into a late-season slump.

they can easily dominate. 97-99 win type of season

But they have older players on offense and injury prone guys in general, so I think 90-93 wins is attainable. The depth on the team is night and day compared to last season.

In comment 13412873 sshin05 said:

Quote:

they can easily dominate. 97-99 win type of season But they have older players on offense and injury prone guys in general, so I think 90-93 wins is attainable. The depth on the team is night and day compared to last season.

And your number is? ;)

be somewhere in between, so 95 sounds right

Cabrera and Walker were a decent tandem up the middle. Duda is a good 1B for a big man and Reyes really impressed me at 3B. The OF is a mixed bag. Ces is a gold glover in LF. Granderson will probably be below average in CF but he's backed up by another gold glover who should come in often late in games. RF? Bruce is poor (although I doubt he kills us) and Conforto is good. I'll split the difference because I do think Conforto takes over eventually. TDA can't throw well but he's a great pitch framer and has cleaned up the passed balls since 2014. Rivera is basically a defensive backup. Add it all up and it looks average overall to me.

It's a LONG season.

We all know this but we still get sucked too far into the valleys when they happen and sometimes we overemphasize the peaks as well.

There are going to be rough patches, there are going to be points in the year where we feel disappointed or like this isn't going the way we wanted. It's inevitable. Let's try and stay a little level and keep our perspective. We all want the same thing this year. A motherfucking RING.

I have no idea why.

Everything clicks this year and it's a miracle season.
Cespedes wins the MVP, Thor picks up the Cy Young, and of course Gsellman picks up the rookie of the year.







Alright maybe more like 93 wins.

I was going to say something similar. Seems like every year we acknowledge baseball is a streaky game, ect. and then the first time Grandy or whoever goes ice cold the wheels are falling off. All of these guys are likely going to struggle at some point. It seems like the lineup (and most lineups) seem to struggle early in the season and then heat up in the summer as the temperatures rise. Remember Walker last year? It was brutal. It's bound to happen again.

Only thing that will really bring me down is gigantic body blows from losing big players long term but if we dont have that most guys numbers should be there at season's end.

won 108 games yet had two 4 game losing streaks and three 3 game losing streaks. So don't panic when they have a losing streak.

more than before and I know it's been discussed, but....

Mets start out the season like this:

April
Braves (3)
Marlins (3)
@Phillies (3)
@Marlins (4)
Phillies (3)
Nationals (3)
Braves (3)
@Nationals (3)


May
@Braves (4)
Marlins (3)

It's May 8 and 32 games before they play a game outside the NL East

the Mets fattening up early actually. Familia is back before the first Nats series. The Braves, Marlins, and Phillies shouldn't really be beating us unless the lineup starts out ice cold or something. I guess it could take a few weeks for Wheeler and Harvey to round into shape also so that bears watching.

say 97

89

Division crown, pennant and a World Series win!

They have the bats and arms to get it done...as always, health will be the key...

I assume 10 or 11 people had it on the nose.

official on the DL, Lugo reporting "tired arm" but will throw today.

.

I like that this Spring was relatively quiet and without hype. All those guys last year that had to step in because of injuries are ready if needed. Just need to get to the postseason with 3 healthy starters.

In comment 13412982 NewFakeDannyHeep said:

Quote:

I assume 10 or 11 people had it on the nose.

You know I have 2014 and 2015 at home saved but Im not sure where I saved the link to last years. If somebody else has it maybe they can post it. I know I was high on my win total for the first time but I was never expecting the level of injuries we had either.

In comment 13412932 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

I was going to say something similar. Seems like every year we acknowledge baseball is a streaky game, ect. and then the first time Grandy or whoever goes ice cold the wheels are falling off. All of these guys are likely going to struggle at some point. It seems like the lineup (and most lineups) seem to struggle early in the season and then heat up in the summer as the temperatures rise. Remember Walker last year? It was brutal. It's bound to happen again. Only thing that will really bring me down is gigantic body blows from losing big players long term but if we dont have that most guys numbers should be there at season's end.

100%

I'm reminding myself this as much as anyone else. It's easy to lose sight of the bigger picture within the context of such a long season.

Barring a really bad rash of injuries, this team will be playing baseball in October. if we aren't, something went horribly wrong.

Just gotta enjoy the ride. I think this is the best overall team we will be fielding since the 80's. Including 2006. I expect big things.

If you look at last year's opening day roster it is MUCH better.

.

emerges as the future replacement for Harvey.

Flores establishes himself as the future at 3B

after a mid-season trade where the Rangers rotation implodes. The Mets send Cecchini, Molina and a 3rd player to Texas for Lucroy.

But we had Colon in the rotation, unproven Conforto in the lineup along with a crippled Wright at 3B. Campbell and De Aza were on the bench. The pen had guys like Verrett and Henderson in it and the depth in AAA was nowhere near what it is now.

And they'll need all seven starters to get there. I think they lead the league in home runs and strikeouts. They kind of remind me of those Orioles teams of the late 60's and early 70's. Great starting pitching and 3 run homers.

..

Winning the NL East on the last game of the season at Philly with deGrom on the mound.

I think Harvey is done as a starter but it will take him and the team the white le season to work that out and have him go to the pen

Lugo is not a starting pitcher imo. He will be an asset in the pen but again he may be forced to start

Gsellman is solid but will probably take some lumps along the way.

Wheeler is a complete unknown.

So I thinking the starting pitching will be strong longterm but in the shorter Mets will have more non-quality starts than they are expecting

Lineup has a lot of firepower but it has too many low average , high K guys. So expect uneven production. A lot of 12-2 wins followed by periods where the Mets have a tough time scoring runs

Division is stronger than people are saying. National s are still the team to beat. Turner Harper Murphy at the top of the lineup is tough.

60% chance Syndergaard is injured this season? #Mets
Link - ( New Window )

1. Despite the 120-innings number floating around, Collins said there is no hard innings limit on Zack Wheeler this season. Terry said it would be more of a feel thing and they will monitor him closely throughout the season. After he showed that he could get Major League hitters out in spring training, they didn’t want to waste his innings in the minor leagues so he will be the fourth man in the rotation.

2. Noah Syndergaard is planning on throwing more two-seam fastballs this season. Collins said when he came up he threw all four-seamers trying to blow batters away, but now he’s learned out to pitch and get guys out earlier in the count. This, combined with throwing more changeups, will lower his pitch count and allow him to get deeper into games. As Sandy Koufax said, “I became a good pitcher when I stopped trying to make them miss the ball and started trying to make them hit it.”

3. Seth Lugo threw a lot of innings in the World Baseball Classic and may be dealing with arm fatigue, Collins said. He is going to throw today, and if the Mets don’t like what they see, Rafael Montero will begin the season on the MLB roster with Lugo pitching in Triple-A Las Vegas. We should know Saturday which pitcher the Mets will carry on their Opening Day roster.

4. Gold Glove center fielder Juan Lagares is starting the season on the disabled list. Because of this, Michael Conforto is on the Opening Day roster. He will be getting as many pinch-hit at-bats as possible to continue his development while not starting every day, and maybe the occasional start.

In comment 13413047 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

after a mid-season trade where the Rangers rotation implodes. The Mets send Cecchini, Molina and a 3rd player to Texas for Lucroy.

Lucroy is still so damn perfect for this team. I'm rooting against Texas almost as much as I'm rooting against the Nats.

he's set up to fail IMO, I guess he probably prefers the major league roster to Vegas, but "as many pinch hit at-bats as he can get and maybe occasional start"

not sure how to resolve it with Bruce on the roster.

In comment 13413115 pjcas18 said:

Quote:

he's set up to fail IMO, I guess he probably prefers the major league roster to Vegas, but "as many pinch hit at-bats as he can get and maybe occasional start" not sure how to resolve it with Bruce on the roster.

Agreed on both. Slippery slope right now with 1 of the most important assets in the organization.

.

In comment 13413109 Eric on Li said:

Quote:

In comment 13413047 DanMetroMan said: Quote: after a mid-season trade where the Rangers rotation implodes. The Mets send Cecchini, Molina and a 3rd player to Texas for Lucroy. Lucroy is still so damn perfect for this team. I'm rooting against Texas almost as much as I'm rooting against the Nats.

Agreed. A Gary Carter like addition.

Kind of scary that it's not unrealistic at all, it's just pessimistic in a lot of areas. However, even with those stat lines/injuries, they'd win more than 83 games.

have been an almost anything that can go wrong did go wrong from an injury standpoint from Wheeler to Harvey to deGrom to Wright and Duda and Walker and TDA, etc. and they went to the WS in 2015 and made the wild card in 2016.

Last year's playoff rotation would have been Thor, Colon, Gsellman and Lugo - and with Thor pitching the WC game he probably (or possibly) would have gotten 1 start in the NLDS. No Duda, no Walker, no Wright, and just a bad year for TDA and nothing from big deadline acquisition Bruce.

I have to believe this year the odds balance out and the Mets only get their fair share of injuries and thrive like they're capable of doing.

Conforto is our LF? Not only are they pessimistic, they are lazy. lol

hmmm
Link - ( New Window )

He didn't throw today.

Kristie Ackert ✔ @Ackert_NYDN
Lugo said it was normal fatigue/soreness from throwing high intensity innings in the WBC. He did not throw today will throw Sunday #Mets

Anthony DiComo ✔ @AnthonyDiComo
Can we all please stop with the "Noah Syndergaard has a changeup now!" narrative? He threw 323 changeups last year! This isn't new!

Kevin Kernan @WheresKernan
Noah: We've got 5 aces

is that the Braves, Phillies, and Nationals are all improved this year. The Nationals sacrificed depth to add Eaton and like the Mets will be in big trouble if they lose either of their stud pitchers. The Braves and Phillies should improve as the season progresses. The NL East is tougher than it has been in the past few years.

In comment 13413047 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

after a mid-season trade where the Rangers rotation implodes. The Mets send Cecchini, Molina and a 3rd player to Texas for Lucroy.

That isn't enough to get Lucroy. Honestly I think the Braves are going to be big bidders for Lucroy either at the deadline or in free agency. If Lucroy becomes a free agent I think there is a 75% chance that he ends up in Atlanta. They have been interested in him for years and have a lot of money to spend in next years free agency. Catcher is the one position where Atlanta is weak in the minors in terms of close to MLB ready prospects.

In comment 13413467 Jay on the Island said:

Quote:

In comment 13413047 DanMetroMan said: Quote: after a mid-season trade where the Rangers rotation implodes. The Mets send Cecchini, Molina and a 3rd player to Texas for Lucroy. That isn't enough to get Lucroy. Honestly I think the Braves are going to be big bidders for Lucroy either at the deadline or in free agency. If Lucroy becomes a free agent I think there is a 75% chance that he ends up in Atlanta. They have been interested in him for years and have a lot of money to spend in next years free agency. Catcher is the one position where Atlanta is weak in the minors in terms of close to MLB ready prospects.

Well I was mostly just kidding about the package but we don't know it's not enough. He had 1.5 years left when the Rangers gave up Brinson (#27 on BA's current list), Ortiz (#79) and Ryan Cordell (24 year old yet to even see AAA) for Lucroy AND Jeffress. .5 of Lucroy is obviously going to bring back less than 1.5 years of Lucroy.

Rangers are likely going to find a "limited" market for him given his unwillingness to leave money on the table. He's looking to receive a "monster" deal which is why talks with the Rangers haven't progressed. Not many teams are giving up a ton to then give a guy a monster deal.

.

.

In comment 13413486 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Rangers are likely going to find a "limited" market for him given his unwillingness to leave money on the table. He's looking to receive a "monster" deal which is why talks with the Rangers haven't progressed. Not many teams are giving up a ton to then give a guy a monster deal.

Fair point. If that is enough then I think Atlanta will top it if they are allowed to talk extension with him as part of the agreement. BTW big surprise with the Braves as they have aggressively assigned Max Fried, Kolby Allard, and Mike Soroka to AA skipping A+. That is the best rotation in the minors when you include Patrick Weigel as well.

I feel like if all goes right we could win 100 games and if everything goes wrong we might win 80. Most of that right or wrong stuff is tied to health, so who the hell knows. I nailed it in 2015, so here's my gut feel:

92 Wins. No idea if that gets us a divison, wildcard, or golf though...

Is the floor. This team is ready. Only question is the bounceback years of formerly injured starters like Harvey and Wheeler. I like how Ces is going into the season. I think an MVP season is possible. Got to get TJ Rivera in the lineup a lot. Great #2 hitter, guy needs to play. There is so much depth and talent. Unless the Mets suffer significant injuries to their starting rotation, they'll win 90 games. Need Noah and DeGrom to have healthy seasons, and if Harvey makes 32 starts, watch out. He looks like he is back.

. Win totals wont matter if we dont beat them head to head

Lugo to DL (Arm fatigue). Team looks to be set.

Unless you think they will be a wild card threat it makes zero sense to trade assists for a rental player they can sign in off season for free.

In comment 13414274 ZGiants98 said:

Quote:

Lugo to DL (Arm fatigue). Team looks to be set.

Can't the Mets DL all pitchers with arm fatigue? I hope Lugo is ok and start his season in Vegas

whom we all thought would be out of the majors by now.

We'll see how it goes.

Pitchers (14): Matt Blackham, Harol Gonzalez, Merandy Gonzalez, Cam Griffin, Witt Haggard, Taylor Henry, Colin Holderman, Jordan Humphreys, Max Kuhns, Gabriel Llanes, Austin McGeorge, Blake Taylor, Adonis Uceta, Joseph Zanghi

Catchers (3): Brandon Brosher, Anthony Dimino, Ali Sanchez

Infielders (5): Luis Carpio, Michael Paez, Milton Ramos, Blake Tiberi, Dash Winningham

Outfielders (4): Gene Cone, Desmond Lindsay, Tim Tebow, Jacob Zanon

Disabled List (3): Seth Davis (LHP), Jose Garcia (C), Natanael Ramos (C)

Hopefully Dunn/Szapucki are in St. Lucie and not hurt.

Mets are currently so thin in the OF I'd probably bring in Melvin Upton #Mets

In comment 13414586 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

Mets are currently so thin in the OF I'd probably bring in Melvin Upton #Mets

Maybe working with Long will help his offensive game.

so how about a reunion?

In comment 13414591 spike said:

Quote:

so how about a reunion?

Or Angel Pagan?

right elbow inflammation

And we're off!

In comment 13414609 DanMetroMan said:

Quote:

right elbow inflammation

Rest him up until we need him to replace Wheeler's spot!

so he won't ever beat up MadBum again.

Big miss by Sandy on this one. He should've offered a minor league contract

Lagares and Nimmo will be back in a week or two and Conforto is coming off the bench as it is.

official roster. No surprises
Link - ( New Window )