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It's only April, and the NFL Draft is still to come, but Football Outsiders is not feeling this year's edition of the Giants. The analytics site projects the Giants to miss the playoffs with an 8-8 record this coming season, according to its early predictions published on ESPN.com. |
So, it is actually fairly predictable that a site like Football Outsiders will have them regress to the mean
1- The rest of the division has not improved or even regressed this offseason. Skins have all the off the field issues, have not made huge improvements to their '16 weaknesses, and lost both their starting WR. Eagles have improved but are still in rebuilding mode. Dallas has lost 4 starters on defense I believe and two starting O-linemen as well.
2- Giants will have most of their 2nd ranked defense back next year, with really no key contributors except maybe Hankins leaving.
3- If one really watched a few Giants games last year, the Giants would get super conservative on the offensive side at the end of games because of how good the defense was.
4- Giants were not blown out by any teams in the regular season last year.
I'll take my chances.
That said, they expect the Giants defense to regress a little, but I have a hard time seeing that. They are bringing back everyone except for Hankins.
The Giants (and the NFCE in general) have a tough schedule this year. The AFC west is pretty good, plus Seattle.
He had the Giants going 6-10.
Missed it by that much.
What else happens in the NFL is anyone's guess.
If you were to apply a true unbiased diagnosis, the Defense can only be determined to improve minimally conservatively 25%. Considering the progress last season and return of up to the moment of 92% of the front line personal confidence of staff and personal is very high.
As to the Offense much is to be determined by performance but unlike many on this I feel that all of the starting components in place. The addition of Fluker will prove dramatic to an improved running game. Many here have allowed pundit opinion to establish the productivity of this lineman. If you watch Charger game film you can determine his performance is being judged on a unit assessment rather than personal performance. As a run blocker he is 100% more effective than his predecessors. Hart's performance improved throughout the season and I believe that if he were allowed to retain his position coming back from injury, the OL would of performed better than with Newhouse.
The addition of Marshall is monumental, the Giants will deploy the best starting Trio in the NFL. TE Ellison is another major addition impacting the running game and will surprise as a receiver. All this means that the only team in the NFCE that has added more contributors to an already proved talent based is the New York Giants.
FO is blowing smoke and it has a foul scent.
Can see an 8-8 plus/minus 1
I don't think it's very likely, but it's a lot more possible than any of us hope.
That line made me chuckle. We get it, you use advanced metrics. But quit trying to sound like a mathematician. It's still just football.
Self importance aside, I have no problem with the prediction. No telling if the offense will improve and it will be hard for the ad to play at the level they did last year. They were flat out phenomenal and the only reason the team made the playoffs. If things break well they can hit double digit wins again. If they don't, they might win 6 or 7.
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I'm pretty certain they didn't have them anywhere near double digit wins.
He had the Giants going 6-10.
Missed it by that much.
Thank you.
+++
What the answer to every question in the history of mankind?
Money.
Anyone predicting the season's outcome has to figure in injuries and if you can do that, you are a very special person since no one can do that.
So basically they are just bullshitting. The offensive part is that they call themselves "intelligent". More bullshit.
Plus everything McAdoo touched turned to gold. He could have a sophomore slump.
I think somehow Cousins wins the division.
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That line made me chuckle. We get it, you use advanced metrics. But quit trying to sound like a mathematician. It's still just football.
Self importance aside, I have no problem with the prediction. No telling if the offense will improve and it will be hard for the ad to play at the level they did last year. They were flat out phenomenal and the only reason the team made the playoffs. If things break well they can hit double digit wins again. If they don't, they might win 6 or 7.
lol, I don't put too much stock into it. I just get a laugh at all the posters who take this article as some sort of burn. It's not crazy or that far fetched for the team to fall back to earth a little bit, especially considering how healthy we were last year.
Plus everything McAdoo touched turned to gold. He could have a sophomore slump.
I think somehow Cousins wins the division.
How is Marshall a loudmouth?
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In comment 13425280 David in LA said:
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That line made me chuckle. We get it, you use advanced metrics. But quit trying to sound like a mathematician. It's still just football.
Self importance aside, I have no problem with the prediction. No telling if the offense will improve and it will be hard for the ad to play at the level they did last year. They were flat out phenomenal and the only reason the team made the playoffs. If things break well they can hit double digit wins again. If they don't, they might win 6 or 7.
lol, I don't put too much stock into it. I just get a laugh at all the posters who take this article as some sort of burn. It's not crazy or that far fetched for the team to fall back to earth a little bit, especially considering how healthy we were last year.
Totally agree and it's not like honorable Aaron and his team of unbiased mathematicians have been woefully wrong in an absolute head scratching way about the Giants in the past. This man presents a lock solid computational model that simply can't be questioned. Bless you Aaron Schatz.
Its been ten years, and I still laugh.
Intelligent? - ( New Window )
Every year NFL teams change. Some younger players improve, some FAs may leave, the number and seriousness of injuries cannot be predicted, etc. It has been rightly pointed out that the draft has not even taken place and that will change each team's situation.
Statistics can be potent, but only if they are applied intelligently. We still have a long ways to go before we can prognosticate with any chance of being right.
Let it go.
Shoot!! You beat me to it. Was going to write the exact same thing. No one knows. Period. Just take this stuff as pure entertainment value and nothing else. No big deal really.
Seems like an important part of the team developement.............