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NFT: Indians close to acquiring Jay Bruce

Anakim : 8/9/2017 9:51 pm
I know I'm not a baseball fan, but figured some would find this of interest


Jeff Passan& #8207;Verified account @JeffPassan
Source: Indians finalizing a deal to acquire Jay Bruce. Cleveland taking on all of Bruce's salary. @jcrasnick first on it being close.
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Thats why I hope  
spike : 8/10/2017 10:56 am : link
We get the fifth overall pick in the 2018 draft to get a legit prospect
What's with the wait on bringing up Smith?  
Rflairr : 8/10/2017 10:57 am : link
You've traded Duda and Bruce. Bring him up and let him play. I don't get it
Flores is our new  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:00 am : link
First baseman
RE: RE: Sort  
Shecky : 8/10/2017 11:00 am : link
In comment 13554828 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 13554715 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


of on topic but Dave Cameron did a piece on prospect valuations based on the FG tools chart the #1 prospect in baseball (at the time) Moncada was worth 107 million (Rosario 70 million for those curious).



Here it is. Not sure I buy it. Grade 45 prospects are worth $11-13 million? Grade 45 prospects are a dime a dozen. The notion that teams with twenty grade 45 prospects have a quarter-billion dollars in prospect value sitting in the minors is nonsense to me. Link - ( New Window )


a 45 would probably fall just outside the top 100 prospects in the game. Say 100-150 range. Literally all you need that prospect to turn into is a TJ Rivera for a year or two. A 6th inning BP arm for a couple years. That's worth "$12mm" in surplus value. Not sure if that makes sense or not, but hope it's helpful
When is Cheech returning to the majors  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:04 am : link
Give him a chance at 3b?
Or mput a slightly different way/perspective  
Shecky : 8/10/2017 11:04 am : link
If that prospect can be a bench player and avoid the need to buy a Salas or De Aza etc. You saved the team several million each season.
RE: When is Cheech returning to the majors  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 11:07 am : link
In comment 13554858 spike said:
Quote:
Give him a chance at 3b?


He can't make the throws to be a 3b
RE: What's with the wait on bringing up Smith?  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 11:08 am : link
In comment 13554850 Rflairr said:
Quote:
You've traded Duda and Bruce. Bring him up and let him play. I don't get it


He's been slumping
RE: RE: When is Cheech returning to the majors  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:10 am : link
In comment 13554862 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
In comment 13554858 spike said:


Quote:


Give him a chance at 3b?



He can't make the throws to be a 3b


He might as well be traded away because we have too many 2b's and zero third baseman
I doubt they would have offered German for Bruce  
Greg from LI : 8/10/2017 11:11 am : link
.
RE: RE: RE: When is Cheech returning to the majors  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 11:16 am : link
In comment 13554865 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13554862 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


In comment 13554858 spike said:


Quote:


Give him a chance at 3b?



He can't make the throws to be a 3b



He might as well be traded away because we have too many 2b's and zero third baseman


He's had a really poor year. No real upside to dealing him. Return wouldn't be much. Hope for a bounceback.
RE: RE: RE: Sort  
Deej : 8/10/2017 11:22 am : link
In comment 13554855 Shecky said:
Quote:
In comment 13554828 Deej said:


Quote:


In comment 13554715 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


of on topic but Dave Cameron did a piece on prospect valuations based on the FG tools chart the #1 prospect in baseball (at the time) Moncada was worth 107 million (Rosario 70 million for those curious).



Here it is. Not sure I buy it. Grade 45 prospects are worth $11-13 million? Grade 45 prospects are a dime a dozen. The notion that teams with twenty grade 45 prospects have a quarter-billion dollars in prospect value sitting in the minors is nonsense to me. Link - ( New Window )



a 45 would probably fall just outside the top 100 prospects in the game. Say 100-150 range. Literally all you need that prospect to turn into is a TJ Rivera for a year or two. A 6th inning BP arm for a couple years. That's worth "$12mm" in surplus value. Not sure if that makes sense or not, but hope it's helpful


MLB.com has the Mets #9 prospect as a 45. But also our #30 prospect. 45 seems to me to be a catchall rating.
Bobby Bonill a played 3rd base  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:23 am : link
In 1994 over 100 games

And No current Mets aside from Reyes and Cab can play third properly
Not  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 11:25 am : link
looking to knock Cecchini but he's having a poor year with the bat and his arm is stretched even at SS, you really don't want to see him playing 3b for the 2018 Mets.
RE: Not  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:27 am : link
In comment 13554884 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
looking to knock Cecchini but he's having a poor year with the bat and his arm is stretched even at SS, you really don't want to see him playing 3b for the 2018 Mets.


How the heck was he drafted in the first round? Right behind Addison Russell
RE: RE: Not  
Deej : 8/10/2017 11:29 am : link
In comment 13554889 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13554884 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


looking to knock Cecchini but he's having a poor year with the bat and his arm is stretched even at SS, you really don't want to see him playing 3b for the 2018 Mets.



How the heck was he drafted in the first round? Right behind Addison Russell


I didnt really like the pick at the time. I think they thought of him as a gamer, and in particular a "safe" pick. But there is no such thing as a safe pick.
RE: RE: Not  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2017 11:30 am : link
In comment 13554889 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13554884 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


looking to knock Cecchini but he's having a poor year with the bat and his arm is stretched even at SS, you really don't want to see him playing 3b for the 2018 Mets.



How the heck was he drafted in the first round? Right behind Addison Russell


Because he would cost less than slot and the thought was he would at least be a sure bet to turn into a Major League caliber utility player. Think Asdrubal Cabrera with less power.
RE: RE: RE: Not  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:33 am : link
In comment 13554895 Mike in NY said:
Quote:
In comment 13554889 spike said:


Quote:


In comment 13554884 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


looking to knock Cecchini but he's having a poor year with the bat and his arm is stretched even at SS, you really don't want to see him playing 3b for the 2018 Mets.



How the heck was he drafted in the first round? Right behind Addison Russell



Because he would cost less than slot and the thought was he would at least be a sure bet to turn into a Major League caliber utility player. Think Asdrubal Cabrera with less power.


Better yet. They couldve drafted Corey Seager
You can 2nd guess  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 11:38 am : link
any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire.

My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough).

But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player"

RE: You can 2nd guess  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:46 am : link
In comment 13554904 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire.

My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough).

But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player"


Similarly we just drafted someone in the first rd this year who may project to a ML reliever.

Who does that??? What second rate organization are we rooting for?
Sebastian Espino  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 11:50 am : link
promoted from DSL to GCL. Signed for 300K last year
RE: RE: You can 2nd guess  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2017 11:53 am : link
In comment 13554931 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13554904 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire.

My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough).

But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player"




Similarly we just drafted someone in the first rd this year who may project to a ML reliever.

Who does that??? What second rate organization are we rooting for?


Peterson does not project to be a ML reliever. He had success as a starter in college in a good conference and there is no reason to not try him as a starter going forward. Justin Dunn threw harder, but had less of a track record as a starter in a worse conference.
Sandy Drafts  
spike : 8/10/2017 11:53 am : link
1st rounders: Nimmo, Fulmer, Cecchini, Plawecki, Smith, Conforto, Dunn, Kay, Peterson

2nd rounders: Mazzoni, Reynolds, Stankiewicz, Church, Lindsay, Alonso, Vientos
The Cecchini brothers' parents must have paid off the baseball media  
Greg from LI : 8/10/2017 11:58 am : link
Prospect evaluators gushed over both of them and neither one amounted to a damned thing.
RE: The Cecchini brothers' parents must have paid off the baseball media  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 12:02 pm : link
In comment 13554955 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Prospect evaluators gushed over both of them and neither one amounted to a damned thing.


And Garin was supposed to be the better one and I think he's on the verge of being a career minor leaguer if he's not destined for that already or out of baseball.


.  
arcarsenal : 8/10/2017 12:06 pm : link
Gavin's career path has been a very weird one - he was billed as mostly glove and the main questions were whether he'd be able to hit or not. Then he turned into Chuck Knoblauch in the field but was hitting well over .300 in both Bing and LV (obviously LV you take with a grain of salt, but still...) so then it turned into "well, it looks like he actually CAN hit.. but where do you put him in the field?"

Now he seems to not be able to do either thing all that well and looks like a bust.

He could still turn it around - he's only 23. But kind of a strange arc.
I wouldn't completely give up on Cecchini  
Eric on Li : 8/10/2017 12:07 pm : link
vs. last year there are only 2 stats that are glaringly different - BA and BABIP (his .290 babip is 1 of only 2 regulars on the Vegas roster under .320). His Line drive percentage is the same, his fly ball is a little higher. K rate, walk rate, iso all similar to the last couple years.

Here's his season in a nutshell - he has 30 less singles than last year, same number of XBH and just about everything else. Certainly not ideal for a guy whose best skill is contact, but I'm guessing there's some bad luck in there. Also on the positive side he only has 7 errors at 2b. He's a guy who should be getting a look with the big club the rest of the season.
To  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 12:09 pm : link
be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out".
Tommy Milone  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 12:11 pm : link
The Mets are going to waste September innings on Gorzellany aren't they? #Mets
RE: To  
spike : 8/10/2017 12:12 pm : link
In comment 13554974 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out".


He cant be a utility backup when he only plays one position
RE: RE: To  
Eric on Li : 8/10/2017 12:15 pm : link
In comment 13554979 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13554974 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out".



He cant be a utility backup when he only plays one position


He's played some SS this year, obviously the throwing is probably still an issue but being able to backup SS has value.
RE: RE: To  
Mike in NY : 8/10/2017 12:16 pm : link
In comment 13554979 spike said:
Quote:
In comment 13554974 DanMetroMan said:


Quote:


be clear I'm not giving up on Cecchini but realistically he's more likely a solid utility player than a regular and if he's a regular it's at 2b. 3b would likely be a disaster and the bat isn't good enough to "find out".



He cant be a utility backup when he only plays one position


Possibly can play SS, but is stretched there. What Dan said is that if he is going to be a consistent starter at one position the only position that that is likely to be is 2B.
.  
arcarsenal : 8/10/2017 12:18 pm : link
I hadn't really looked much into the peripherals - I wouldn't give up on him completely, either. It just seemed like last year, we were saying hey.. if the guy can find a position to call home, we might have something here. It looked like he was going to become a pretty solid contact hitter.

Haven't abandoned all hope, but this year was definitely not the type of progression we were anticipating.
He  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 12:18 pm : link
can flash at SS and maybe your 3rd option at 3B. Maybe you dream big and he's a late developer like Scooter Gennett. But 2b is the spot you hope for. I'm not giving him away or giving up yet but 3b just isn't in the cards.
RE: RE: The Cecchini brothers' parents must have paid off the baseball media  
Greg from LI : 8/10/2017 12:18 pm : link
In comment 13554964 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
And Garin was supposed to be the better one and I think he's on the verge of being a career minor leaguer if he's not destined for that already or out of baseball.


Think he's reached that point now. He's stunk it up in AAA with three separate organizations in three years - Boston, Milwaukee last year, KC this year.
Wilponzis  
TyreeHelmet : 8/10/2017 12:41 pm : link
People complain about Dolan to the high heavens, but one thing about Dolan is that money is never a question. He's got plenty of faults but he'll spend whatever it takes. Wilpons clearly won't.
Vientos  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 12:52 pm : link
2 run homer
RE: You can 2nd guess  
Deej : 8/10/2017 12:54 pm : link
In comment 13554904 pjcas18 said:
Quote:
any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire.

My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough).

But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player"


I find that trying to outthink the top of the draft in any sport is usually a mistake. Dont draft for downside, draft for upside.

Im not 100% sure that was Sandy's intent on Ceech. E.g. the Nimmo pick was all upside -- the guy didnt even have a HS team. And there was nothing safe about the Dom Smith pick, as a short, low power 1B. Dom had/has to thread a needle to carve out a successful career.

I just think they were favoring stuff like hustle, eye and approach over pure 5-tool skill at the time.
.  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 12:56 pm : link
Grandy for Perrin or Wang might make sense for both sides
Cecchini's  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 12:57 pm : link
upside was always somewhat limited. You can dream on pure tools, much harder to dream on sum of parts types.
lol  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 1:10 pm : link
Ryan Brodie @ItsChodezzzz
@keithlaw anything positive to say on Ryder ryan

keithlaw Retweeted Ryan Brodie
Teflon Terry can't play him over Conforto
RE: RE: You can 2nd guess  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 1:21 pm : link
In comment 13555053 Deej said:
Quote:
In comment 13554904 pjcas18 said:


Quote:


any MLB draft, it's such a crapshoot even in the first round, but when you draft a guy at 12 who projects to maybe a utility player I think it's time to retire.

My guess is that half the players in the 1st round of the 2012 draft haven't reached the majors and maybe they won't (though HS picks are still young enough).

But, and this is just my philosophy, but I'd almost 100% of the time roll the dice on a high upside guy and have him fail than use pick 12 on a guy that "may become a utility player"




I find that trying to outthink the top of the draft in any sport is usually a mistake. Dont draft for downside, draft for upside.

Im not 100% sure that was Sandy's intent on Ceech. E.g. the Nimmo pick was all upside -- the guy didnt even have a HS team. And there was nothing safe about the Dom Smith pick, as a short, low power 1B. Dom had/has to thread a needle to carve out a successful career.

I just think they were favoring stuff like hustle, eye and approach over pure 5-tool skill at the time.


I had no issues with the Nimmo pick, seemed raw, but uber athletic (allegedly) and while the projection wasn't there, and he wasn't expected to go that high (most mocks had him a the end of the first round) if the Mets scouts saw him as a plus defender, who could play CF with a decent bat go for it.

if he fails he fails a lot of baseball picks fail.

and hind sight is 20/20 with drafts, but when you take a player projected to get 32nd or thereabouts by nearly everyone before the draft at 13 you better know something.

And I don't even want to knock the Mets scouts.

Conforto was a HR, Rosario looks legit, Smith a good pick, Fulmer obviously panned out, and more.
A good argument can be made this regimes top weakness is self scouting  
Eric on Li : 8/10/2017 1:53 pm : link
they should know their own players better than the rest of the league and with some of their biggest decisions they've chosen wrong. They chose to deal Fulmer over injured Wheeler. Let Murphy walk for peanuts when Wright was an obvious injury risk at 3rd. Turner non-tendered. Regardless of public opinion or even market value from other teams, the management group on the inner circle of those decisions should not have so many big misses.
Heyman is getting checks from the Wilpons  
DennyInDenville : 8/10/2017 2:23 pm : link
Joe and evan mostly Evan just DESTROYED heyman and made him look like a fool omg.

That was pretty funny lol.

Heyman backed up the trade tooth and nail
Maybe the Mets  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 2:35 pm : link
can now get one of those uber prospects the Yankees wouldn't trade for Bruce, but for Walker.

Quote:
Michael Mayer‏ @mikemayerMMO

The Yankees have shown interest in trading for Neil Walker according to @JonHeyman.


this is sarcasm obviously before anyone overreacts, though I do hope the Mets trade Walker, and I don't care even a little bit if it's to the Yankees and Walker has a 2015-Cespedes like stretch run (though that's unlikely).
Carig  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 2:36 pm : link
has taken on the quasi-troll the Mets role on the Mets beat but he also reported the Yankees stuff so I have no reason to doubt Heyman. As to the value of the prospects offered who knows? But unless Carig is ALSO on Boras payroll the Yankees/Mets unwilling to pick up money story has been "collaborated".
The best part  
Metnut : 8/10/2017 2:37 pm : link
about getting rid of Bruce and hopefully Walker is that it lessens the chances of the Mets doing something silly like extending either one a qualifying offer. Given the Mets meager finances, offering $18M for either of these guys in 2018 would stink.

Getting extra playing time to see what we have with Nimmo, Lagares and Flores is a really nice bonus too.
Looking  
DanMetroMan : 8/10/2017 2:39 pm : link
more and more like a rare total misfire (to the tune of 1 million) by the Mets international scouts
Link - ( New Window )
The Mets should 100%  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 2:40 pm : link
have offered Bruce the QO if they didn't deal him, worst case is another year of a guy hitting 30+ HR's for 17M in RF and Conforto plays CF for a season, best case is he rejects it, signs elsewhere and the Mets get a 2nd round comp pick.

the QO to Bruce was kind of a no-brainer, I don't think there was a chance they'd offer it to Walker, though I have read they may try and work out a short-term deal with him if he's not traded.
RE: Looking  
pjcas18 : 8/10/2017 2:43 pm : link
In comment 13555184 DanMetroMan said:
Quote:
more and more like a rare total misfire (to the tune of 1 million) by the Mets international scouts Link - ( New Window )


Similar to Gregory Guerrero so far who got $1.5M

Maybe the Mets thought they were signing Vlad Jr.
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