Have you seen him yet?
He can do this...
I watched a couple of Bears preseason games. This guy is barely 5'6" but he runs tough. Vs Cards first team D they had problems tackling him. Like a quicker Ahmad Bradshaw. Much quicker to the outside. Bears got something here. Cohen is going to get a lot of PT. A lot of short passes.
They have problems at WR. A rookie QB will be getting a lot of time. And Howard was very good last year but they'll find it tough to keep Cohen off the field. Very impressive and could be a FF steal.
And he can do this too...
I know the gloves help but thats sick.
Your follow up was asking me about "real numbers" for targets/snaps/etc? Really? Would my guess on these numbers mean anything to you?
Yes, it would. It would define in FF terms (since that's what this thread was supposed to be about) what you consider to be a big role.
Are you envisioning a consistent 3-5 targets a game and 3-5 rushes a game? That's basically a 3rd down back's role, which would make him fantasy relevant as a backup/emergency starter. Think Shane Vereen level expectations
Are you thinking more like 6-8 targets (with maybe a couple of those coming out of the slot) and 3-5 rushes? Now you're more in the high end pass catching specialist, which puts him in the flex starter conversation. Think Theo Riddick level expectations
Or are you thinking more like 6-8 targets and 8+ rushes a game, which puts him in line with what people are expecting from McCaffrey/Montgomery?
It's sort of the same idea with a handcuff. You keep the guy on the roster in case of injury to your starter, but in effect, it is a waste of a roster spot, unless that injury happens. With waiting for a guy to breakout it is even a little different. You're still wasting a roster spot on a guy you are hoping to get chances, but it is probably at the expense of other players who already are producing. and the worst part is a lot of those guys can be picked up at the point where they will produce. I got Jordan Howard in two leagues last year when he got the starting chance.
IMO, sleepers serve two roles that I like to see in FF opponents:
- They fool people into thinking they made a smart, slick pick and hold onto the guy for as long as possible
- It rarely works out, yet those players often have multiple picks taking up roster spots that they are banking on for future production.
Give me guys waiting for production from Tayvon Austin, DeAndre Washington, Keith Marshall or Laquon Treadwell as they've all been considered sleepers in recent years.
I think you're missing it with Cohen. He isn't going to be a backup RB.
They are going to make him a big part of the offensive game plan and it starts early. Part of it is because he's so explosive and elusive. Vs Arz, HoneyBadger had issues with him on several plays in the open field. You see that and you can't bury the guy on the bench especially on a team with few offensive weapons.
Who do they have for any matchup advantages in CHI? Not much. Actually nothing. No matchups at WR. Not much at TE. And Howard isn't an explosive guy. That opens the door for Cohen early.
He will play with Howard. He'll take carries from him too. He will also play WR/slot for them.
You're watching McCaffrey right? He's going to find a role with Stewart on the team. No doubt about it. Cohen can be the same type of player for CHI. But in CHI they have fewer options so he may have a bigger role than McCaffrey in year 1.
I think in week 1 they have a big role defined for him. And he gets the ball a lot in that game.
Another benefit for FF. If CHi is trailing, hes going to be the guy in there catching the dumpoffs from the inexperienced QBs. A lot of receptions will go his way this year.
you can't possibly equate Cohen to him.
I mean, I guess you can. Draft Cohen and start him in your FF league. I'm pretty sure it will work out more for the other guys.
And yes, Treadwell was considered a sleeper - and he panned out as most sleepers do.
I'd be surprised if Cohen had a combined 6 touches/targets per game. You want to use a spot for that, go ahead. McCaffery will likely be in the double digits every game.
Also it makes sense to have one or two guys at the end of your roster who have a chance to be big producers if they get a chance.
Johnson, Howard, Dixon, Kelley are examples from the recent past. Sleeper receivers are less common IMO.
Cohen may fit that category this year. There are others.
The question is if you want a proven and reliable mediocrity in that spot of your roster or to take a swing at greatness. In the end it depends on what else you have and the nature of the payout.If you have a lot of side bets then you want to make sure you don't suck and may go for the more sure thing, if its basically winners take all the the sleeper may be the way to go.
This is exactly what I think the Bears will do with Cohen. All of that and play him at WR. He is going to be featured in the game plan.
I'm guessing he averages less than 5 targets/touches a game.
If Bears fall behind, and they probably will in most games, his PT will increase.
If Bears fall behind, and they probably will in most games, his PT will increase.
Why wouldn't you start him in week 1, you just said you think in week 1 they have a big role defined for him. And he gets the ball a lot in that game.
Carey hurt his leg and it wasn't until Week 6 that he got his first start when Langford hurt his ankle.
Up until then, he was averaging 6 touches a game.
I can't see Cohen even matching those numbers.
You are vastly overestimating his impact absent an injury to Howard and Langford
All of a sudden, Cohen was getting a ton of national media coverage after that preseason game. I think that spooked the Bears coaching staff, as I think they wanted to keep Cohen's abilities under wrap till the regular season.
So in the 3rd preseason game, it was no shock that Cohen only received one carry and was then pulled from the game. The Bears gave most of their carries in that game to Jordan Howard and Jeremy Langford. I doubt we even see Cohen play tonight, as I feel the Bears coaching staff wants to keep their game plan involving Cohen under wraps till week 1 of the season.
Plus I think people are sleeping on Cohen's value right out of the gate, especially in PPR leagues. I see Cohen having similar value to what Tyreek Hill had last year but getting a lot more carries than what Hill had. He'll be the Bears kick returner, play WR and also be Jordan Howard's change of pace RB and primary 3rd down back from day 1.
All of a sudden, Cohen was getting a ton of national media coverage after that preseason game. I think that spooked the Bears coaching staff, as I think they wanted to keep Cohen's abilities under wrap till the regular season.
So in the 3rd preseason game, it was no shock that Cohen only received one carry and was then pulled from the game. The Bears gave most of their carries in that game to Jordan Howard and Jeremy Langford. I doubt we even see Cohen play tonight, as I feel the Bears coaching staff wants to keep their game plan involving Cohen under wraps till week 1 of the season.
Plus I think people are sleeping on Cohen's value right out of the gate, especially in PPR leagues. I see Cohen having similar value to what Tyreek Hill had last year but getting a lot more carries than what Hill had. He'll be the Bears kick returner, play WR and also be Jordan Howard's change of pace RB and primary 3rd down back from day 1.
John Fox always wants to play a vanilla offense, not just in preseason.
I'd be surprised if Cohen didn't get more touches than Hill did last year with the Chiefs. Hill was getting around 5-7 targets in the passing game and 1-2 carries per game.
As the Bears primary 3rd down RB and lining him up as a WR at times when Howard is in the game, I think Cohen will get close to the same targets as Hill got, 5-7 per game. I think Cohen will also get more than Hill's 1-2 carries and should be 5+ per game.
Than also figure in his kick return yards (if your league factors that in) and Cohen should have a similar impact that Hill had last year, if not better.
Like I said, we can revisit during the year. If you want to start a guy who is getting 5-7 touches a game - have at it, especially at RB.
I think that is the disconnect here, Cohen will get 10-15 touches per game (5-7 in the passing game and 5+ carries). Is that not enough to make an impact?
In 2015, when Danny Woodhead was healthy, he averaged 12.7 touches per game and finished as the 4th highest scoring RB overall in PPR formats.
Now I'm not comparing Cohen to that type of production, especially as a rookie. I just think all that KWALL and a few others are suggesting, is that Cohen has that type of "potential".
Although you're right, we can re-visit this discussion at the end of September and see how Cohen has performed after his first 3-4 games.
Quote:
If you want to start a guy who is getting 5-7 touches a game - have at it, especially at RB.
I think that is the disconnect here, Cohen will get 10-15 touches per game (5-7 in the passing game and 5+ carries). Is that not enough to make an impact?
In 2015, when Danny Woodhead was healthy, he averaged 12.7 touches per game and finished as the 4th highest scoring RB overall in PPR formats.
Now I'm not comparing Cohen to that type of production, especially as a rookie. I just think all that KWALL and a few others are suggesting, is that Cohen has that type of "potential".
Although you're right, we can re-visit this discussion at the end of September and see how Cohen has performed after his first 3-4 games.
If Cohen gets 10-15 touches per game (5-7 in the passing game and 5+ carries) then he will have a big FF impact. That's a pretty big if though.
This wasn't against the Browns 2nd/3rd team defense, it was against the first team Cardinals D that's one of the better defenses in the NFL. Several of the Cardinals defenders who tried to tackle Cohen said after the game that the kids a special talent and a few reached out to Cohen on social media to say congrats on the game.
How to the Bears coaching staff reward him in the 3rd preseason game off that stellar performance? Just one carry and then pulled from the game. They're saving him for the regular season.
We can talk back and forth about his projections, which is useless. Let's just touch base on this at the end of September.
Right now, they don't have anything at WR or TE. They need a spark and they have one guy on the team that can do it.
I don't care who the coach is but you see the guy play and its clear as day you have something special. They will put that kind of player in the gameplan.
They also have inexperienced QBs. With that usually comes more dump offs when losing games especially when you lack talent at WR/TE. Those plays will go to Cohen. Those plays would not go to a guy like Howard.
CHI may try to run the ball early in games but I'd bet on them falling behind and having to open it up more. That means more Cohen.
I don't think he's just a potential FF stud. I think he'll be one of the best offensive weapons in the game. Yeah it's over the top but you see what he did to Mathieu. He had him lined up several times and couldn't get him down in space. Hes super explosive and a strong runner.