There's so much to write but I'm just gonna keep the original post sort of, kind of light since I doubt there's a ton of interest here. Will gladly post more should people choose to keep the thread going..If I get no replies, that's fine since a lot of this information I've shared or used from RotoGrinders, but we'll just not go to a week 2 and beyond.
*Note: Most of this is my opinion based on FanDuel, the platform I play on...and only for the main slate. Thursday night not included*
First, for those getting started and want to really get involved, here's a glossary of terms related to DFS:
4for4Glossary
Position by position rankings based on week 1 projections
QB
Rodgers
Wilson
Newton
Ryan
Cousins
Mariota
RB
Johnson
McCoy
Bell
Gurley
Freeman
Howard/Crowell
WR
Brown
Jones
Beckham
Green
Nelson
Cooper
TE
Gronk
Olsen
Ertz
Reed
Graham
Walker
K
Kickers I usually like to pick the home team who is favored to score the most points via Vegas. You'll want to look at teams who have good offenses and who stall in the redzone too, amongst many other variables. In this case that would be:
Succop
Barth
Bailey
However, I think it's safe to look at their counterparts who are much stronger kickers:
Bryant
Janikowski
Rosas
Defense
Giants
Texans
Rams
Cardinals
Ravens
Steelers
Stacks
QB/WR
QB/WR/WR
QB/RB/WR
QB/RB
QB/WR is the most common stack and the idea is that you double up on points with your QB/WR (same as season long fantasy).
QB/WR/WR stack really will only ever be worthwhile if you can pinpoint that QB who goes for 400/4 TD's. That doesn't happen too many times in a season and this type of stack is not one I recommend personally.
QB/RB and QB/RB/WR, this can work. I think last year Roethlisberger/Brown/Bell was in a top lineup.
Personal favorite stacks this week
Rodgers-Adams
Wilson-Baldwin
Palmer-Brown
Hoyer-Goodwin
Carr-Cooper
Favorite play of the week
LeSean McCoy - He's a must have IMO for cash games on either platform and I have him in a bunch of GPP lineups.
Facing a Jets D who just traded Sheldon Richardson. A team who will fight to win more than 2/3 games this year. An extremely lackluster offense who should fall behind early.
No one on the Bills is taking carries from him. Tyrod Taylor is coming out of the protocol, just lost Watkins, and Matthews is not at full strength.
He gets 25-30 touches and I just can't see a better cash game play, save DJ.
Guys being talked about
*Just some random guys who are being favored in the DFS community for week 1*
Zach Ertz - He's relatively low priced and just an easy guy to plug in to your lineup. He is going to be heavily targeted.
Carlos Hyde - Most think Hyde will be the bellcow for SF with Hoyer at QB. They expect a heavy run game, although on the contrary, I think that Garcon and Goodwin could be sneaky plays as a WR3. Garcon received a ton of targets in the preseason.
AJ Green - Word is Green is back to full strength and people think he'll have a breakout game. Since the MIA/TB game was postponed, expect to see a lot of pivots from Evans to Green (same price range). His ownership percentage would have been fairly low for a top tier receiver otherwise
Zach Miller - He's minimum priced on FanDuel and still the starting TE for the Bears. A vet who had good games last year and can produce value at a $4,500 salary.
Charles Clay - Massive home favorite against the Jets and should see a good target share percentage
Todd Gurley - It's arguable that this is the best matchup on the entire slate, maybe even better than McCoy's. Question is if Gurley last year was an enigma or if he really is the RB people expected him to be
Brandon Marshall - If Beckham is out, Marshall could be a great play at his current price
Zay Jones - Bills rookie who owns the NCAA record for career receptions. There isn't much else to go with the football for Taylor. This may not be the week for Jones since I think you see a heavy run game, but you never know.
Martavis Bryant - Great contrarian pick over Brown. Bryant had some great games when he was playing prior to the suspension. He should get some looks.
Isiah Crowell - Browns have an improved line. They don't have many receiver targets anymore and they should pound the rock a lot this year. Him, or even Duke Johnson as a pivot off (should be a slot receiver for them in situations), could be a great play
Those are just some random guys, there's so many more. Here's a lineup the optimizer I use spit out based on my personal projections:
I feel like I could have organized this better and I'm pretty all over the place, but feel free to add some personal input or questions for others. Share/spread the info!
Haven't done a ton of research yet for this week, but one I do like in that vein is a Newton/McCaffrey stack.
A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.
I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
Haven't done a ton of research yet for this week, but one I do like in that vein is a Newton/McCaffrey stack.
That definitely could be and I guess kind of makes sense. I'm by no means a pro. Those things are more based on my experiences. I don't think I've ever intentionally gone the QB/RB route.
A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.
I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
Yea, I was going to mention Wright. He's a guy I'm afraid to play, but maybe shouldn't be. I saw people talking about him for cash games too.
I think Murray will definitely have a good week. Was reading that a lot of the bulk of Henry's touches came later in the year when they wanted to rest Murray's legs. Wonder if the same will hold true this season. Either way, I think you're right he's a top tier potential guy flying under the radar.
A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.
I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
What's weird about Murray pricing on DK? Seems about right IMO.
Quote:
I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.
A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.
I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
What's weird about Murray pricing on DK? Seems about right IMO.
I shouldn't have said weird. I feel he'll be overlooked by a good amount due to people gravitating towards Bell, Johnson, and McCoy. Then going after a cheaper guy like Gurley, Hyde, McCaffrey, and etc.
Quote:
I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.
A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.
I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
Yea, I was going to mention Wright. He's a guy I'm afraid to play, but maybe shouldn't be. I saw people talking about him for cash games too.
I think Murray will definitely have a good week. Was reading that a lot of the bulk of Henry's touches came later in the year when they wanted to rest Murray's legs. Wonder if the same will hold true this season. Either way, I think you're right he's a top tier potential guy flying under the radar.
Everyone is on Ertz. Feel like I rather go with Walker or get Olsen who will be super underowned.
TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.
I wouldn't touch them, I think the SF O is going to be sneakily good this year.
Quote:
I like that as a deep flyer. Rather go with a Hoyer/Hyde/Garcon stack.
A lot of people are on Kendall Wright this week.
I think DeMarco Murray will go underowned this week. Especially with his weird pricing on DK.
What's weird about Murray pricing on DK? Seems about right IMO.
It is weird in that he's substantially lower than Bell/Johnson/McCoy but higher than Gurley/Howard. I agree, he probably will be underowned.
TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.
I wouldn't change Ertz just for the sake of changing him. Even if he's the chalk, which seems to be the case, there's plenty of other spots in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field.
I'm kind of heavy on Ertz myself but I'm not changing it unless there's a consideration outside of what I or someone else thinks is high owned.
Quote:
I have about 20 lineups and he's probably in more than 60%. I can't seem to get him out. I'm going to change that before Sunday. He's so easy to plug in, I know others are doing the same.
TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.
I wouldn't change Ertz just for the sake of changing him. Even if he's the chalk, which seems to be the case, there's plenty of other spots in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field.
I'm kind of heavy on Ertz myself but I'm not changing it unless there's a consideration outside of what I or someone else thinks is high owned.
Thanks for the advice Will. I most likely will stay with a good amount of Ertz in my lineup just for the fact that I think WR is going to be where the money is made. Going to make sure I'm not too heavy on anyone there.
Quote:
In comment 13587016 kelsto811 said:
Quote:
I have about 20 lineups and he's probably in more than 60%. I can't seem to get him out. I'm going to change that before Sunday. He's so easy to plug in, I know others are doing the same.
TE is just crappy this week, and overall, and I find it hard to pay up.
I wouldn't change Ertz just for the sake of changing him. Even if he's the chalk, which seems to be the case, there's plenty of other spots in your lineup to differentiate yourself from the field.
I'm kind of heavy on Ertz myself but I'm not changing it unless there's a consideration outside of what I or someone else thinks is high owned.
Thanks for the advice Will. I most likely will stay with a good amount of Ertz in my lineup just for the fact that I think WR is going to be where the money is made. Going to make sure I'm not too heavy on anyone there.
All good man. FYI, this podcast I listen to predicted the following as the chalk:
Wentz
Bell
Johnson
Gurley
Ertz
Rams D
I'm completely off Lacy but who knows. He should get a decent amount of volume and would be a nice pivot off of Seattle passing game. Personally I've just never been a fan of Lacy and don't like the spot.
A guy I'm on that's subject to change is Forte. He's usually good for a few huge games early and has a good track record vs Buffalo. People seem to be flirting w Powell but Forte got all the looks vs our first string in the preseason.
You need to punt too far on WR IMO.
One player that I'm surprised hasn't gotten more mention on the podcasts is CJ Anderson.
Very cheap. Far from a sure thing, but if his early carries are productive could get a ton of work.
The skeptic in me feels like he is one of the plays that the experts are keeping for themselves in GPP lineups while they feed Gurley and Hyde to the masses.
That's not to hate on the Gurley / Hyde recommendation. I think you can make a very balanced and strong cash lineup in DK by going Gurley + Hyde + CJ. If you combine those guys cost vs production, I think you can pretty easily lock in 3X. Upside is a little limited by high expected ownership on TG and CH, but if it's a reasonably small cash game, high ownership protects your downside as well.
I also think you make a fair point on Bell+Johnson. It leaves you with little room although I honestly think guys like Sanu, Kupp, Wright, (guys on that level) are going to be the plays taking down the big money
You need to punt too far on WR IMO.
One player that I'm surprised hasn't gotten more mention on the podcasts is CJ Anderson.
Very cheap. Far from a sure thing, but if his early carries are productive could get a ton of work.
The skeptic in me feels like he is one of the plays that the experts are keeping for themselves in GPP lineups while they feed Gurley and Hyde to the masses.
That's not to hate on the Gurley / Hyde recommendation. I think you can make a very balanced and strong cash lineup in DK by going Gurley + Hyde + CJ. If you combine those guys cost vs production, I think you can pretty easily lock in 3X. Upside is a little limited by high expected ownership on TG and CH, but if it's a reasonably small cash game, high ownership protects your downside as well.
With you on the Hyde rec. I know he'll get all of the touches but I just don't think there's enough upside to roster him for GPP's.
Re: Bell/Johnson jam, it's possible without predictable punts at WR. Just have to go cheap at QB/TE/DEF.
Pierre Garçon – 28% of preseason targets
Zach Ertz – 21%
Marvin Jones – 37%
Jack Doyle – 24%
Tedd Ginn – 27%
Steeling Shepard – 32%
Mohammad Sanu – 37%
Take it for what it's worth
Pierre Garçon – 28% of preseason targets
Zach Ertz – 21%
Marvin Jones – 37%
Jack Doyle – 24%
Tedd Ginn – 27%
Steeling Shepard – 32%
Mohammad Sanu – 37%
Take it for what it's worth
Love Marvin Jones this week at his price -- especially w news that Peterson is supposed to shadow Tate.
Also, since the TE position bites this week, mind as well go cheap here with Engram and spend the money elsewhere.
Love this thread BTW - hopefully each week
Also, since the TE position bites this week, mind as well go cheap here with Engram and spend the money elsewhere.
Love this thread BTW - hopefully each week
Coleman is intriguing. I have a little exposure but generally went a different way w lineup construction.
Like Engram this week. I don't think TE sucks -- a lot of intriguing options if you wanted to pay up a little. Bennett, Walker, Ertz, etc. Graham/Eifert on the higher end.
Glad I played the Rams and Eagles defense this week.
Cooper Kupp is going to be a PPR machine quickly.
Ouch.
Winning lineup for millionaire maker was:
Wentz
Gurley
McCoy
Brown
Fitz
Crabtree
Ertz
Cohen
Rams D.
4 of those plays were considered the chalk heading into the slate.