With the draft data out, here is the actual strength of schedule for the year. Playing the Browns killed your strength of schedule. The Bears had the toughest schedule and Jaguars and Titans tied for the easiest schedule. The Giants had the 9th toughest schedule. The Eagles had the easiest schedule in the NFC. The difference between the hardest and easiest schedule resulted in a .125 difference of strength of schedule.
Chicago Bears 0.559
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.555
Miami Dolphins 0.543
Atlanta Falcons 0.543
Washington Redskins 0.539
Green Bay Packers 0.539
Carolina Panthers 0.539
New Orleans Saints 0.535
New York Giants 0.531
Cleveland Browns 0.520
New York Jets 0.520
Houston Texans 0.516
San Francisco 49ers 0.512
Oakland Raiders 0.512
Los Angeles Rams 0.504
Dallas Cowboys 0.496
Detroit Lions 0.496
Denver Broncos 0.492
Seattle Seahawks 0.492
Buffalo Bills 0.492
Minnesota Vikings 0.492
Arizona Cardinals 0.488
New England Patriots 0.484
Indianapolis Colts 0.480
Kansas City Chiefs 0.477
Philadelphia Eagles 0.461
Los Angeles Chargers 0.457
Cincinnati Bengals 0.456
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.453
Baltimore Ravens 0.441
Tennessee Titans 0.434
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.434
Here is the predicted strength of schedule at the time the schedule was released. The AFC West was supposed to have the toughest schedule. The Giants were predicted to have the 7th hardest schedule.
Denver Broncos 0.578
Kansas City Chiefs 0.576
Los Angeles Chargers 0.568
Oakland Raiders 0.564
Buffalo Bills 0.561
Miami Dolphins 0.547
Washington Redskins 0.543
New York Giants 0.535
New York Jets 0.535
Dallas Cowboys 0.531
Philadelphia Eagles 0.531
New England Patriots 0.527
Atlanta Falcons 0.521
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.518
New Orleans Saints 0.514
Carolina Panthers 0.504
Los Angeles Rams 0.482
Green Bay Packers 0.48
Chicago Bears 0.479
San Francisco 49ers 0.475
Cleveland Browns 0.469
Detroit Lions 0.469
Arizona Cardinals 0.467
Baltimore Ravens 0.461
Houston Texans 0.455
Seattle Seahawks 0.455
Minnesota Vikings 0.453
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.453
Cincinnati Bengals 0.449
Tennessee Titans 0.439
Jacksonville Jaguars 0.439
Indianapolis Colts 0.424
So here is the variance between the predicted strength of schedule and the actual strength of schedule. The Bears had the largest variance of .080 and the Chargers had the largest negative variance of -0.111. The Steelers predicted strength of schedule and actual strength of schedule were the same. Based on the teams with the 4 largest negative variances, it looks like playing the NFC East and AFC West resulted in an easier schedule than predicted.
Chicago Bears 0.080
Houston Texans 0.061
Green Bay Packers 0.059
Indianapolis Colts 0.056
Cleveland Browns 0.051
Minnesota Vikings 0.039
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.037
San Francisco 49ers 0.037
Seattle Seahawks 0.037
Carolina Panthers 0.035
Detroit Lions 0.027
Atlanta Falcons 0.022
Los Angeles Rams 0.022
New Orleans Saints 0.021
Arizona Cardinals 0.021
Cincinnati Bengals 0.007
Pittsburgh Steelers 0.000
Miami Dolphins -0.004
Washington Redskins -0.004
New York Giants -0.004
Tennessee Titans -0.005
Jacksonville Jaguars -0.005
New York Jets -0.015
Baltimore Ravens -0.020
Dallas Cowboys -0.035
New England Patriots -0.043
Oakland Raiders -0.052
Buffalo Bills -0.069
Philadelphia Eagles -0.070
Denver Broncos -0.086
Kansas City Chiefs -0.099
Los Angeles Chargers -0.111
+1
I did a quick scatterplot of the data (wish I could post it here) and this is what the data appear to reveal:
If you start from the lowest predicted strength of schedule (SOS), you'll see that there's a positive correlation with the actual SOS... up to a predicted strength of ~.480.
But after a predicted SOS of .480, there's a negative correlation. In other words, as the predicted SOS went higher and higher (above .480), the lower and lower the actual SOS turned out to be.