I feel like I've asked this question in one way or another 20 times the past few weeks: why isn't BBI more actively advocating for (or at least considering) Jackson for our selection? The two primary concerns seem to be his passing ability and his durability. Well let's take a look at his college career and those two issues compared to some of the other guys in consideration.
Passing
Jackson: 619 comp., 1086 att., 57% comp., 9043 yds., 8.3 Y/A, 69-27
Darnold: 549 comp., 846 att., 64.9% comp., 7229 yds., 8.5 Y/A, 57-22
Rosen: 711 comp., 1169 att., 60.8% comp., 9301 yds., 8.0 Y/A, 59-26
Allen: 365 comp., 649 att., 56.2% comp., 5066 yds., 7.8 Y/A, 44-21
Where is the big spread here? The narrative has been that Darnold and Rosen are elite passing prospects while Jackson is a runner that will struggle with NFL defenses. I don't see that in the numbers. And I'd add that Jackson enjoyed similar success as a passer while fulfilling a role as a primary runner - which I would think speaks to his ability to function as a passer while taking a physical pounding. Speaking of his role as a runner...
Running
Jackson: 655 carries, 4132 yards, 6.3 Y/A, 50 TD
Barkley: 671 carries, 3843 yards, 5.7 Y/A, 43 TD
Jackson actually outperformed Barkley as a rusher over the course of their college careers - including outrushing him in their sophomore and junior years. Think about that...Barkley is being touted as the next great running back, and Jackson actually has better numbers as a rusher while functioning as his team's passer. I won't post the other QB's rushing stats because other than Allen's sophomore year (142 carries, 523 yards, 3.7 Y/A, 7 TDs) they aren't worth mentioning in comparison.
Durability
Games played/games missed to injury:
Jackson - 38/0
Darnold - 27/0
Rosen - 30/8
Allen - 27/2
If durability is the worry, Jackson played more games than the other guys and missed none while pulling double duty and actually outrushing the best running back prospect on the board. If passing ability is the issue, his passing production stands up to the other guys. The running ability is no contest.
So what am I missing here?
LJax attempted 430 passes this season. Tebow didn't even attempt 300 as a Junior (298) and 314 as a senior.
But, that said, and nothing is without risk... If Jackson is what his fans say he is...AND we get the guard or the DE...it potentially adds an x factor that we don't have.
Then, if we do go all outside zone runs, play action Atlanta or shanny style, Which, as I have said, seems to work in today's football.. A kid like this might ..thrive in that.
I love the “if he could just learn to pocket pass and only run when he has to” argument.
This guy - as a pocket passer - has no chance in the NFL. He isnt even a 3rd string quality thrower in the NFL.
His entire game is running around making great plays with his legs - a style that will get him killed in the NFL.
This is what makes draft talk so fun I guess, but I wouldnt touch him with a 10 foot poll and agree with others that his best bet is a position switch. I really am shocked anyone thinks enough of his passing abity to think he’ll ever be good in the pocket.
Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR
Or, saw the tight coverage and wisely did not throw there?
I guess the combine will help to some degree.
Thinking trade down here.
Quote:
Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year
Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR
Again, college statstics are pointless by every measure.
I'm not the one that keeps bringing up his completion percentage. It's what his detractors keep pointing to.
Quote:
Peyton Manning - 60.2% his Senior Year
Lamar Jackson - 59.1% as a JR
Again, college statstics are pointless by every measure.
Picking Manning's worst college season vs. Jackson's best completion % wise. I agree, that is a pointless measure.
Obviously, conclusive evidence of this is relevant so your research would be helpful to us all.
Thanks WillVAB
The idea isn't that Jackson is Peyton Manning or Joe Montana. The idea is that Jackson's number is being over-scrutinized.
First, it's not that bad, and second - it really doesn't matter that much.
Who was Jackson throwing to this year? His WR's all got hurt.
The player on the other end of a pass actually does have an effect on completion numbers.
He has an NFL-quality arm. Accuracy isn't his strongest suit but I don't think he's exactly bad at it, and he improved his passing a good bit from last season to this season. I also don't think people quite appreciate how weak the talent he played with at Louisville has been.
My one reservation continues to be usage - if you're going to draft Jackson, you have to build around his strengths. If you pick him and then expect him to play like a traditional NFL pocket passer, you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Commit to his skills 100% or pick someone else.
I see RG3 in Jackson. Not Randall , who was a moose. RG3 was extremely talented when he came to the league. He wrecked his knee. He got beat up. He hurt his shoulder . That’s my concern with Jackson.
I agree with you about making historical comparisons about Jackson, both because of the racial undertones as well as the fact that there really hasn't been a player like Jackson before. There have been QBs who have passing numbers that compare to Jackson's, and others who have rushing numbers similar to Jackson's, but really none that are comparable on both fronts.
So my preference is to just analyze the specific elements of Jackson's game that will be important to translate to success at the next level. With that in mind, I think it's fairly safe to say that his athleticism and rushing ability (injury risk notwithstanding) will absolutely translate to the NFL and give him the chance to be a unique weapon from the QB position.
As a passer, his accuracy is a significant concern for me. And the numbers in the aggregate alone aren't great, but also get worse when you dig in a bit deeper.
His accuracy gets worse in each month of the year: 61.5% in September, 57.0% in October, 55.4% in November, 41.7% in December. December is a very small sample size - just three bowl games - but it's also a sample that includes big games against solid competition (all vs. SEC teams).
Could that be representative of his passing getting worse as the weather gets colder? Could it be him pressing as the games get more significant? Could it be a reflection of fatigue over the course of a season because of how much of Louisville's offense runs through him? Could it be a reflection of injuries and/or fatigue within his supporting cast? It could be a combination of any or all of those factors, or it could just be a coincidence.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
His performance vs. specific conferences is interesting as well (listed by total pass attempts):
Against the ACC (23 games, 662 attempts), his career numbers are pretty close to his overall numbers: 56.9% completions, 143.1 rating. The results are scattered - it's not really easy to discern any trends within the opponents. His numbers against Clemson and NC State, for example, are just decent, but he performed well against Florida State and dominated BC, UVa and UNC (though he did complete just 48.7% of his passes at home against BC this past season).
Against the SEC (7 games, 171 attempts), he has pedestrian numbers: 48.5% completions, 118.5 rating, but that does require some context - in addition to the three bowl games mentioned above, he has three games against Kentucky and his first career start, which came against Auburn in 2015. He was mostly good against Kentucky (not great in 2015, pretty good in 2016, excellent this past season; outstanding rushing totals in all three games).
Against the AAC (2 games, 70 attempts), his numbers are also fairly middling: 52.9% completions, 102.1 rating. Interestingly, both games were against Houston and both were losses. Houston was able to bottle up Jackson's running ability (49 yards rushing total in the two games). Is that an indication of what could happen in the NFL if his rushing is schemed against? Two games is not enough to draw any meaningful conclusion about that.
Against CUSA (2 games, 67 attempts), his numbers are really impressive: 61.2% completions, 200.5 rating. Both of these games came in the first month of the 2016 season (season opener 9/1 vs. Charlotte, week 4 9/24 at Marshall) and they were representative of how special Jackson can be when he's at his best - 703 yards passing, 11 TDs, 1 INT; 181 yards rushing, 4 TDs. Level of competition is the flag here, though. Charlotte went 4-8 in 2016, Marshall went 3-9.
Against B1G (1 game, 46 attempts), Jackson played well. Granted, it was the season opener against a so-so Purdue team, but it was still an impressive performance: 65.2% completions, 148.6 rating. He went 30 for 46, 378 yards passing, 2 TDs; 107 yards rushing.
Against MAC (1 game, 22 attempts), Jackson had a very good game: 81.8% completions, 207.8 rating. He went 18 for 22, 299 yards passing, 2 TDs, 2 INTs; 34 yards rushing, 1 TD.
Against "non-majors" (2 games, 48 attempts), he dominated (which is to be expected, but it's a positive that he doesn't play down to his competition): 68.8% completions, 172.8 rating. There's not really a ton to be gleaned from these games because of the competition he played, but he was excellent in both games, with 461 yards passing, 4 TDs, 1 INT; 284 yards rushing, 3 TDs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
What's the net net? It's tough to say. But overall, Jackson gives me pause due to his sporadic accuracy, his struggles against better competition (such as the SEC) and my questions about what causes his numbers to fade later in the season. He's too talented to write off completely, but I don't know how anyone can speak confidently about his game translating seamlessly to the NFL. He could absolutely become an all-time great - the athletic ability and talent is off the charts. He also could struggle enough as a passer that his offense becomes one-dimensional at the NFL level.
Here are my references:
Career Splits
Career Game Log
I absolutely agree that his accuracy is a concern - if Jackson had pinpoint accuracy, he might be one of the greatest prospects ever - so, as with most prospects, he has his flaws.
Some say that Petrino's offense was the reason why he succeeded the way he did. Well, we won't be hiring Petrino himself - but there's no reason why we can't tailor an offense to fit his strengths.
I realize it gets dicey if he gets hurt because then you're likely putting a guy with a much different skillset in his place. But I still believe you can install an offense that can at least somewhat take that into account.
As I've referenced a few times, Tom Savage absolutely sucks - but Houston didn't need to overhaul their entire offense when they replaced him with Watson.
I think Watson is a more accurate passer than Jackson - but I think Jackson can have a similar impact if he's coached correctly. Watson changed everything about that team when he was playing.
Jackson has mechanical things that I think are correctable. He wants to be a passer, though. I think you have to keep his legs in play because you're basically neutering him if you take that away from him - but I'd really cool it with the designed runs or rollouts that leave him exposed to linebackers.
Jackson just has this create-a-player element to his game that can be absolutely lethal. He can buy ludicrous amounts of time with his legs because he's faster than nearly anyone you can send at him.
I want to see him learn to counter blitzes better by identifying hot reads and improving his short/mid-range throws - but if teams want to drop into coverage to confuse him and make him throw into tighter windows, that's fine. Build a team that can run the football with authority and teams won't be able to do that.
The arm strength is not an issue - get guys singled up on post routes downfield and he can drop dimes 40 yards deep with ease.
The frame is on the wiry side - but I think if you get him into an NFL S&C program, they can bulk him up a little bit. Despite this concern, his durability was never a question @ LOU
I very much admit that Jackson has higher bust potential than some of the other guys we're looking at - but I also feel that if he can put it together, he can be brilliant and I'd be willing to gamble on it (just not at 2nd overall)
I think people are afraid about the injury risk - which I understand. But if you want a guy who uses his legs, it's just a part of the deal. I think the onus will be on his coaches to teach him to protect his body - something Russell Wilson has become very good at, while guys like RG3, Luck, and Wentz have failed by playing very recklessly.
Realistically, I don't see NYG taking this player. But I am very interested in watching his career unfold because the potential and wow factor are undeniable.
bronxgiant : 9:14 am : link : reply
in a Pro setting yet would say Jackson is slight. 20-21 years old and will sit behind Eli and learn the Pro game. Right now kid is 212 lbs. Giants would have an athletic QB game changer to go with Beckum and Engram. Giants have to come into the present and look to the future. Defenders are getting so much faster each year. QB have to have escape ability. Kap, Wilson and Newton have all led teams to the Super Bowl. This kid might be better than all of them. Wont have to hear about Dak Prescott any more either.
I think he is late 1st or 2nd round material
I’d pull the trigger at 2.
Darnold, Rosen or Jackson at 2 would be fine with me.
The people who keep saying he doesn't are the ones who haven't watched him.
There are countless instances of Jackson evading pass rushers, while staying behind the LOS with his eyes downfield because he's trying to throw it.
He doesn't take off as soon as someone gets pressure on him.
He's nowhere near Aaron Rodgers as a passer - but the way Rodgers can be absolutely maddening by dodging pass rushers and buying himself ridiculous amounts of time is something Jackson can do even better.
How many times do you see a free rusher that Rodgers evades or watch him step up into the pocket and then back again, and then roll out to the point where the ends can't figure out a route to get to him?
Jackson does that constantly.
He has to deliver the ball on the money for the play to be effective - but Jackson is the type of guy that makes you absolutely insane when you play against him because every time you think a defender is going to get to him, he gets away.
Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.
Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.
His throwing motion is tight and compact. Ball comes out quickly.
Darnold is the one that needs to be cleaned up in a big way.
Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.
I don't really understand the comments about his wind up. He has a pretty quick release.
Quote:
for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury.
Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.
His throwing motion is tight and compact. Ball comes out quickly.
Darnold is the one that needs to be cleaned up in a big way.
It's cute how you skip over any statistical analysis.
Quote:
for about 3 years, then get a career-ending injury.
Very exciting to watch, and dominant in college, but I don't think he has the quick-release needed in the NFL. The running isn't sustainable. He has a hella arm, but that wind up is very disconcerting.
His throwing motion is tight and compact. Ball comes out quickly.
Darnold is the one that needs to be cleaned up in a big way.
i agree there. darnold is wonky...
Let's see you take a run at it, champ. Since the sum total of your contribution is cut all players who make any money, install a revolving door at QB and ensure that the Giants remain a single-digit win team in perpetuity.