I was going to post this on the Romo isn't better than Eli thread, but thought this deserved its own treatment.
Kurt Warner has been one of the most vocal critics of Eli and even recently said that Eli was a "borderline" HOF case when every other HOF member asked said Eli belongs in Canton. What I don't like about Warner is not his unwarranted criticism but that it seems so hypocritical. Warner had an up and down career that included more than its fair share of failure and good fortune. And unlike Eli, I don't think anyone can argue that Warner ever carried his team. When Warner was great - and there were times when he was great - he was great with a lot of other great players around him. I don't think you can say that about Eli.
Linked below is an [old] article from FO which actually makes the case that Warner
belongs in the HOF. I think Warner is the most overrated QB in Canton but I don't really have a problem with him being there. But consider some of the arguments against Warner. And especially consider some of these warts that Warner had, like being a front runner and essentially unable to comeback against good teams, he played one game in precipitation (an unbelievable stat in and of itself) and consider the extraordinary talent Warner had around him. And then think about Eli.
In his career, Warner was 2-44 (.043) when trailing by at least 10 points at any time in the game. The league average is around 15 percent.
Warner was 9-30 (.231) at fourth-quarter comeback opportunities, which are only for deficits of 1-8 points. That's below average too, but the interesting part is Warner's nine wins had an average deficit of just 2.2 points -- the smallest average deficit for any quarterback with at least nine fourth-quarter comeback wins in NFL history.
On the road, Warner had just two fourth-quarter comeback wins. They came against the 2005 49ers (4-12; 30th-ranked scoring defense) and 2005 Rams (6-10; 31st-ranked scoring defense). How big were those deficits? One point each.
Warner was 0-42 when trailing by at least six points in the fourth quarter, including 0-23 when he had possession in a one-score game. That's just unfathomable for someone who quarterbacked four different 400-point teams.
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Not exactly a clutch QB that could bring his team back from anything. Great frontrunner, lousy comeback QB.
And there's this too about all the talent around Warner:
When Warner was lighting up the scoreboard, he played with an arsenal of weapons few quarterbacks ever get to experience. Isaac Bruce, Torry Holt, Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald are all 10,000-yard wide receivers who will receive HOF consideration. HOF running back Marshall Faulk was the most dynamic offensive player in the league in 1999-2001, and he's one of the best receiving backs ever. Faulk, not Warner, was the player Bill Belichick sought to shut down in Super Bowl XXXVI.
Warner threw 50.5 percent of his career regular-season passes to those five players. He also played with talented receivers such as Amani Toomer, Jeremy Shockey, Ike Hilliard, Steve Breaston, Ricky Proehl and Az-Zahir Hakim. Orlando Pace, Warner's left tackle in St. Louis, is also eligible for Canton this year and probably has the best case of these GSOT Rams. Warner had just about everything on offense except for a good tight end. |
When Warner was benched or went down with injury his replacements did just fine.
We know how Bulger outperformed Warner in 2002-03, but that wasn't the only time. When a capable quarterback like Trent Green stepped in for Warner in 2000, he actually had a higher passer rating (101.8) and DVOA (28.6%) than Warner. If not for Rodney Harrison injuring Green in the 1999 preseason, we might be talking about Green's HOF case today. |
Like Brees, another QB people say is so much better than Eli, Warner played mostly in ideal weather conditions or indoors.
Beyond the weapons, there were other factors contributing to Warner's great statistics. He played in a dome with the Rams and there was no such thing as bad weather in Arizona with that retractable-roof stadium. Warner played in one game with precipitation in his career. He lost 47-7 in New England in 2008, completing 6-of-18 passes for 30 yards. |
Warner fattened up on lousy teams.
Warner also played most of his career in the NFC West when it was the laughingstock of the league. Soft schedules boosted his early start. The 1999 Rams are the only team since 1970 to play just one team with a winning record in the regular season. They lost. Warner went 36-13 in games against the NFC West in his career. He was 1-7 against the NFC South (10 touchdowns, 14 interceptions) and 7-13 against the NFC East (24 touchdowns, 23 interceptions). This is why Warner's VOA (not adjusted for opponent) is higher than his DVOA for nine of his 12 seasons. He played some very weak schedules of defenses.
All-star casts needed for relevancy, weak schedules to inflate the numbers, a "win big lose close" reputation, and five years of nothingness. Is it really a HOF career if we're asked to forget half of it? |
Warner was a great story but he was a front runner who had a lot of help and even then, only ever produced very uneven results. That Warner craps on Eli so much is completely beyond me. That so many Giants fans hold up Warner as a slam dunk HOF and then turn around and say Eli is borderline is completely absurd to me.
FootballOutsiders Argues for Warner to Canton - (
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MVP is a regular season stats contest, nothing more. If they voted after the Superbowl, is there any doubt Eli Manning was the 2011 MVP?
Only 10 regular season MVP's in history have gone on to win the Superbowl that same season.
The regular season award is hugely significant because the sample size is THE ENTIRE season. It rewards sustained excellence. SB MVP is nice, but it’s one game. Timmy Smith was a SB MVP in ‘88 for the Skins and ended up with 600 yards in his career.
Since Eli has never been good at sustained excellence, I guess I can see why you have to resort to such silly tactics...
Or....
7 Fourth Quarter Comebacks constantly playing from behind including a game where you were down 2 TD's with under 5 minutes to play (Dallas), breaking the 4th quarter TD record, and Superbowl MVP?
Newton and Ryan will retire with more MVPs than Eli. Neither is anywhere near his class, nor will they ever be.
Newton and Ryan will retire with more MVPs than Eli. Neither is anywhere near his class, nor will they ever be.
EXACTLY. That's all I'm saying.
Even his 2012 year was viewed as very good despite 25 INTs, which has already been broken down where over half came on drops or tipped balls.
Look solely at stats is a poor way to judge a player.
Even his 2012 year was viewed as very good despite 25 INTs, which has already been broken down where over half came on drops or tipped balls.
Look solely at stats is a poor way to judge a player.
Stop it. Top 3-5 in the league QBs, Manning had 1 year where you could legitimately say he was in that category. I'll give you possibly 2008 but I would need to examine the other QBs that season more to see where he ranked. The other years he's been a TO machine, no question about that.
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I mean he was pretty darn good in 2008. Was he not elite because they were good at running the ball? He was efficient and made a lot of big throws in games. 2014 he threw for 36 TDs, thats pretty darn good considering it was 2nd in the league.
Even his 2012 year was viewed as very good despite 25 INTs, which has already been broken down where over half came on drops or tipped balls.
Look solely at stats is a poor way to judge a player.
Stop it. Top 3-5 in the league QBs, Manning had 1 year where you could legitimately say he was in that category. I'll give you possibly 2008 but I would need to examine the other QBs that season more to see where he ranked. The other years he's been a TO machine, no question about that.
So we judge eliteness based on one stat? Turonvers? Ok.
I respect you as a poster, but calling Ryan a choker in the SB in absurd. He had a QBR of 145 in game. He was 17/23 for 284, 2 TDs, O Ints.
I guess you are blaming him for Hightower's sack??
Welp, I guess there goes Brett Favre's legacy. Along with many other HOF'ers.
Its not that huge of a stat.
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I don't put as much weight in MVP as others doc and I'll give two examples why. Cam Newton and Matt Ryan. They each won the MVP recently. They then proceeded to destroy that season in the Super Bowl. Ryan did so by utterly and completely choking, and Newton by quitting like an absolute dog in a situation where Eli can and has twice turned a Super Bowl loss into a win. If I weren't on my phone I'd post the gif.
I respect you as a poster, but calling Ryan a choker in the SB in absurd. He had a QBR of 145 in game. He was 17/23 for 284, 2 TDs, O Ints.
I guess you are blaming him for Hightower's sack??
It wasnt Ryan's biggest choke job ever. He has many more that superceede that one. He took a few bad sacks in that game as well.
Look at the top 15 players all time in INT's:
1 Brett Favre+ 336 1991-2010 4TM
2 George Blanda+ 277 1949-1975 4TM
3 John Hadl 268 1962-1977 4TM
4 Vinny Testaverde 267 1987-2007 7TM
5 Fran Tarkenton+ 266 1961-1978 2TM
6 Norm Snead 257 1961-1976 5TM
7 Johnny Unitas+ 253 1956-1973 2TM
8 Dan Marino+ 252 1983-1999 mia
9 Peyton Manning 251 1998-2015 2TM
10 Y.A. Tittle+ 248 1948-1964 3TM
11 Jim Hart 247 1966-1984 2TM
12 Bobby Layne+ 243 1948-1962 4TM
13 Dan Fouts+ 242 1973-1987 sdg
14 Warren Moon+ 233 1984-2000 4TM
15 Drew Brees 228 2001-2017 2TM
Eli Manning 228 2004-2017 nyg
All but two QB's on that list are in the HOF (Eli and Brees being future HOF).
I think Favre is overrated, BTW, but he was a character and a gunslinger who threw for a shitload of yards and also has league MVP honors.
I think Favre is overrated, BTW, but he was a character and a gunslinger who threw for a shitload of yards and also has league MVP honors.
Warner played with at least 3-4 guys who are going to the HOF. Eli has played with 1 guy who has a chance. Not one GM or exec would want Kurt Warner playing in NY his whole career. Especially ones with very bad OLines.
Mic Drop
Mic Drop
Did Warner play with the same team for more than six seasons without gettting hurt, benched, or cut?
Mic Drop
Mic Drop
From 2002-2007 - Kurt Warner was not in the playoffs.
LOL. Good call on that one!
Save your key strokes. Defending the absurd will only make things worse...
Link - ( New Window )
Mic Drop
Warner took his team (s) to the playoffs 5 times.
Eli took his team (singular) to the playoffs 6 times.
Warner won 1 Superbowl
Eli won 2 Superbowls
Might want to pick that mic back up.
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Did Warner miss the playoffs 5 of 6 seasons?
Mic Drop
Warner took his team (s) to the playoffs 5 times.
Eli took his team (singular) to the playoffs 6 times.
Warner won 1 Superbowl
Eli won 2 Superbowls
Might want to pick that mic back up.
Well technically the question he asked was legit. Warners teams never missed the post season 5 out of 6 years. They just missed them 6 STRAIGHT years.
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In comment 13854835 NYSports1 said:
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Did Warner miss the playoffs 5 of 6 seasons?
Mic Drop
Warner took his team (s) to the playoffs 5 times.
Eli took his team (singular) to the playoffs 6 times.
Warner won 1 Superbowl
Eli won 2 Superbowls
Might want to pick that mic back up.
Well technically the question he asked was legit. Warners teams never missed the post season 5 out of 6 years. They just missed them 6 STRAIGHT years.
Are we judging a QB now by the entire team's performance and basing it on whether they made the playoffs? I want to be sure that I understand you because one week from now when we have a different conversation, our inability to do anything since 2011-2012 is going to be brought up again. Oh and by the way anyone with half of a football brain knows that our playoff appearance two seasons ago was solely due to the defense. Our offense was ranked 26th I believe.
And, just as important or even more, the QBs that stepped in to start when Warner was injured or benched played as well or better. The idea that you can discount the talent around Warner is so silly. Does throwing to Holt and Bruce with Faulk to either run or catch or block or having Pace anchor your line make a difference? When Warner was terrific he was terrific but he was also very bad for long stretches throughout his career and he always played, well or poorly, with HOF and top receivers.
The Falcons choked - indeed. But you can't pin this on Ryan at all. He missed 6 passes the entire game.
Key Moments:
1. The Hightower sack was Freeman's fault. He totally whiffed on his obvious responsibility. What exactly was Ryan's fault there?
2. After Ryan makes the clutch throw late in the 4th to Julio Jones, basically on the verge of ending the game, Matthews gets the false start and Mack whiffed on the sack by Trey Flowers to move them out of FG position. Remind what Ryan did wrong there?
3. Coin toss in OT. Falcons didn't win it so the Pats got the ball, and won the game. What did Ryan do wrong in this situation?
Atlanta lost for two key reasons - Kyle Shannahan called a bad game in the second half. And Dan Quinn didn't stop Shannahan from calling a bad game in the second half...
3.
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Did Warner miss the playoffs 5 of 6 seasons?
Mic Drop
From 2002-2007 - Kurt Warner was not in the playoffs.
LOL. Good call on that one!
So you count seasons where Warner did not play much at all?
2002 6 games started
2003 1 game started
2004 Benched with winning record (NYG)
2005 10 games started
2006 5 games started
2007 11 games started
2008 (I believe led team to potential winning td in SB)
Eli missed 1 game in a same 6 year span and made playoffs once on the strength of a great defense that year.
Exactly the same....HAHAHAH
Good argument.
Didn't he also throw an INT in the final seconds of the first half that, at the goal line, that got returned 100 yards for a TD?
Two of these types of posters participated in this thread to prop up Warner. nysports1 and retrojint
Eli's greatness is in moments, people remember those. Stats are on the page, no memories. The more time that goes by, the more special everyone will realize what Eli did was. 20 years from now people will still be talking him. The truth is, you can't call something the Hall of Fame without Eli Manning.
If we could resurrect the game threads from those playoffs and SuperBowls, you people saying he shouldn't be in the Hall might give pause.
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In comment 13854835 NYSports1 said:
Quote:
Did Warner miss the playoffs 5 of 6 seasons?
Mic Drop
From 2002-2007 - Kurt Warner was not in the playoffs.
LOL. Good call on that one!
So you count seasons where Warner did not play much at all?
2002 6 games started
2003 1 game started
2004 Benched with winning record (NYG)
2005 10 games started
2006 5 games started
2007 11 games started
2008 (I believe led team to potential winning td in SB)
Eli missed 1 game in a same 6 year span and made playoffs once on the strength of a great defense that year.
Exactly the same....HAHAHAH
He was the opening day starter for 6 straight years this is fact. Your initial statement was wrong.
Moving on.
Both have their strengths and weaknesses. Eli we know about. Great under pressure. A gambler, and will give his WR's a chance to make a play. Great at the line of scrimmage, will check out to the best play possible most of the time. A great "Back Shoulder" passer (something we sadly haven't seen recently).
Eli also was great at play action when we had a running game (something we haven't had since 2008). He does have his flaws, though...for some reason, he has a tendency to throw behind his receivers (I think this happened after he got some INT's his first year), so he does not get the best YAC. Eli is slow, though he's good moving in the pocket when there is one. And his touch on short passes is missing (why did that disappear after Tiki left?)
Warner simply was amazing...he was laser sharp accurate. Warner used to make pin point passes in the Arena League that no one else could do (remember, WR's had almost no separation from the DB's in that game because the field was so small). And nearly all of those passes I saw lead the WR, so you almost never saw the WR stop or hesitate while catching the ball.
Kurt was very mobile, he was as elusive as Rodgers or Wilson, and could throw on the run accurately. He was used to throwing accurately off his back foot, and could easily get the ball out in 2 seconds or less (from his Arena days, since those QB's never had time to throw or take a proper stride throwing). And Kurt had a GREAT deep ball!
He wasn't perfect, though. Kurt had multiple hand injuries (the first one I knew about was in Arena..the Barnstormers were playing the NJ Red Dogs, coached by John Hufnagel...yes THAT guy!) The Barnstormers that year were impossible to stop, and I heard from an assistant coach about the Red Dog's game plan against Warner...it was to pressure him up the middle, getting a helmet in his face.
Kurt smashed his hand against an helmet that game, and I think the injury never healed properly.
His hand injuries kept happening in the NFL, and was one of the reasons he was released from the Rams (Kurt wasn't a fumbler before that, though he got really bad handling the ball). I don't think he was 100% when he played in NY in 2004, plus we had no WR's worth a damn that year, anyway.
Who would I pick? Eli...not because he's a great regular season QB, but because Eli can elevate his game if he has help from his team mates. Rising to the occasion when your team needs you..going past your limits...makes you a HOF candidate.
Oh, here's a good link to Kurt Warner's mechanics, if you're interested:
Kurt Warner Throwing Breakdown - ( New Window )
He could sidestep a little in the pocket and throw. He never moved like those guys, extend plays, or throw on the run like them.
He could sidestep a little in the pocket and throw. He never moved like those guys, extend plays, or throw on the run like them.
I'm glad you said it. I have no idea how one can come close to making that comparison. That's like saying Danny Amendola runs away from DBs like OBJ...