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Salary Cap Outlook

Breeze_94 : 3/7/2018 7:07 pm
The Giants had ~23.5 mil before the Ogletree deal.

They can get to close to 33 mil in cap space by cutting Marshall (5.15 mil), Jerry (2.525 mil), Harris (2.45 mil), and Armstrong (1.237 mil)

Ogletree has a base salary in 2018 of 3 million. His 7 mil roster bonus due on March 18th will LIKELY be converted into a signing bonus, which will be prorated over 4 years, 1.75mil per year. With that, Ogletree will have a cap hit of 4.75 mil in 2018.

They have placed a 2nd round tender on Brett Jones, for 2.9mil.

After accounting for Ogletree/Jones, they are just under 26mil in cap space.

If they opt to sign Norwell, he will cost around 12 mil per year, giving the Giants around 14mil in cap space after accounting for him.

The 1st (5.7 mil) and 2nd round (1.3 mil) picks will cost about 7 mil against the cap in 2018, minus about 1 mil when you account for the fact that these guys will take the spot of 2 guys on the back-end of the roster currently counting against the top 51 contracts.

The rest of the picks will only cost the Giants a couple hundred thousand as the cap hits for those will not be significantly higher than the cap hits of guys on the back-end of the roster currently counting against the Top 51 contracts who they will replace.

So after likely cap cuts, Norwell, Ogletree, and accounting for draft picks, the Giants will have about 7 or 8 mil leftover to spend in FA, although this number could be higher if the Giants structure Norwell's deal to have a lower cap hit in 2018 or if they restructure a couple of guys.
Nice job Breeze  
Earl the goat : 3/7/2018 7:16 pm : link
There’s always ways around the cap and to make room
If the Giants want to sign someone that badly they will find a way
You seem to understand the cap but whiff on Norwell.  
robbieballs2003 : 3/7/2018 7:27 pm : link
If Norwell averages 12 mil per year he wilk not count 12 mil against this year's cap.
The salary cap kinda added to the fun (or misery) of debating  
SB 42 and 46 and ? : 3/7/2018 7:43 pm : link
off-season personnel moves. But the cap just isn't anything like it used to be.

In 2008 the cap was $116 million dollars. Five years later in 2013, the cap had risen to $123 million. That's an increase of $7 million dollars.

Five years later, in 2018, the cap is $177 million dollars. That's an increase in $54 million. That's an increase of 44 percent. Not many players a team wants to keep are forced to leave because of the cap anymore.

With Manning's largest cap hit coming off this year or next, probably to be replaced by a rookie contract, that's a lot more space. If Manning is back next season, the team can borrow from next year knowing that Manning will be gone in 2019.

I like this article on the NFL in this new age of the cap.

In the past six years, the cap has exploded from $120 million to $167 million. In the past four seasons, it rose a minimum of $10 million a year. Meanwhile, after the 2011 collective bargaining agreement, rookie contracts became significantly cheaper, and opened up even more cap space.

The competitive balance of the league is changing drastically because of it, and the market for players has become more complicated than ever before.


Sorry to anyone who has already seen the article. I won't post it again.

The Effects of the Rising Salary Cap - ( New Window )
RE: You seem to understand the cap but whiff on Norwell.  
Eric on Li : 3/7/2018 7:43 pm : link
In comment 13854138 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
If Norwell averages 12 mil per year he wilk not count 12 mil against this year's cap.


He mentioned that they could have more depending on how they structure Norwell, I think he was just accounting for the highest possible end of a variable number.

Ultimately I think this analysis is pretty spot on. I suspect they will sign one of Norwell/Solder and then a second OL with versatility like Chris Hubbard so they can pick whatever position OL lines up with value in whatever round they decide to do so. Whether it's Nelson at RG or a Crosby/Jones type in round 2. Etc.

Then use whatever money is left for some depth signings. I expect Bettcher will add a few guys he's coached before like a la Karlos Dansby. Maybe a slot CB. Or maybe DG will bring in a rotational vet like Lotulelei.

Get all that done and there's a lot of flexibility for the draft. QB, Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, trade down - all on the table.
Is Jones’ tender confirmed as a 2nd round level?  
Giantology : 3/7/2018 7:47 pm : link
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RE: RE: You seem to understand the cap but whiff on Norwell.  
Breeze_94 : 3/7/2018 8:08 pm : link
In comment 13854153 Eric on Li said:
Quote:
In comment 13854138 robbieballs2003 said:


Quote:


Ultimately I think this analysis is pretty spot on. I suspect they will sign one of Norwell/Solder and then a second OL with versatility like Chris Hubbard so they can pick whatever position OL lines up with value in whatever round they decide to do so. Whether it's Nelson at RG or a Crosby/Jones type in round 2. Etc.

Then use whatever money is left for some depth signings. I expect Bettcher will add a few guys he's coached before like a la Karlos Dansby. Maybe a slot CB. Or maybe DG will bring in a rotational vet like Lotulelei.

Get all that done and there's a lot of flexibility for the draft. QB, Barkley, Nelson, Chubb, trade down - all on the table.


I could definitely see another OL added in FA and a guy like Dansby or Kevin Minter at LB, both guys who Bettcher has coached and will not cost much. Also, a slot corner like Patrick Robinson is a possibility.

When all is said and done, if you only count the top 45 contracts including the draft picks and their cap hits, and Norwell, Jones, Ogletree and their projected cap hits, the Giants will have about 14-15 mil (if not more depending on restructures and Norwells deal) to spend on free agents to fill out the roster.

So, 14 mil for 6 players. Its not completely accurate, but just a guess at this point. Thats a solid number, you can probably get 3-4 vets around the league min, and still have 6 or 7 mil to spend on 2 other players (guys like Hubbard, Robinson)
don't discount the # needed intra-season  
DavidinBMNY : 3/7/2018 9:30 pm : link
They needed almost ~$10mm this year I believe with all of the injuries and suspensions.
Breeze - not sure if you counted the extra 10 million  
short lease : 3/7/2018 10:28 pm : link

increase the NFL add to the salary cap this year? The article lists all the teams and the space they have (I think?).
Link - ( New Window )
RE: You seem to understand the cap but whiff on Norwell.  
yatqb : 3/7/2018 10:38 pm : link
In comment 13854138 robbieballs2003 said:
Quote:
If Norwell averages 12 mil per year he wilk not count 12 mil against this year's cap.


Bingo. He'll likely get a 6 or 7 year deal with the signing bonus spread over the length of the contract.
Good thread, though, Breeze. Didn't mean to be so negative.  
yatqb : 3/7/2018 10:39 pm : link
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Good job.  
Keith : 3/7/2018 10:48 pm : link
I expect Nowell’s first year cap hit to be around 7M, so if the rest of your numbers are correct, we will be closer to 12-13M in space. I also think
BM comes back on a 1-2m deal.
RE: Good job.  
BillT : 3/8/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 13854422 Keith said:
Quote:
I expect Nowell’s first year cap hit to be around 7M, so if the rest of your numbers are correct, we will be closer to 12-13M in space. I also think
BM comes back on a 1-2m deal.

If he gets more than vet min I'b be surprised. No one out there would give him more than that if he were a FA.
I think the vet min for Marshall  
Keith : 3/8/2018 11:15 am : link
would be around 1M. I think he'll be brought back around that number, maybe with incentives to bring it up to 3-4M. Marshall wants to be here for a variety of reasons.
RE: I think the vet min for Marshall  
Joey from GlenCove : 3/8/2018 11:36 am : link
In comment 13854847 Keith said:
Quote:
would be around 1M. I think he'll be brought back around that number, maybe with incentives to bring it up to 3-4M. Marshall wants to be here for a variety of reasons.


Is he even worth the roster spot?
I def think so.  
Keith : 3/8/2018 11:39 am : link
You have a 10 year vet with amazing size who has had a ton of success and works hard at his craft. Last year was not on BM. He didn't play well, but the circumstances played a role for him. It's not like we have great young talent knocking on the door either.
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