I decided to analyze and research six of the top rated QB's , who have ever played the game.
I wanted to see how this could possibly relate to Eli Manning , and Tom Brady....
They were
1) Brett Favre
2) Warren Moon
3) Peyton Manning
4) John Elway
5) Joe Montana
6) Dan Marino
First , I wanted to see how long they played?
Secondly , I wanted to see if there was a sharp drop off in production , or was it gradual , when it came to the end of there careers?
Here is what my research found.
1) Brett Favre , played until he was 41. His last productive year was 2009 When he was 40 years old. He threw for 4000 yards , 33 TD , 8 INT , 107 QB Rating.
When he turned 41 his numbers dropped considerably. In 2010 his stats were 2500 YDS , 11 TD , 19 INT , 69 QB Rating. Following year he retired.
2) Warren Moon , played until he was 44. His last productive year was 1997 at age 41. He threw for 3600 YDS , 25 TD , 16 INT , 83 QB Rating.
The following year at age 42 , he fell off a cliff. 1600 YDS , 11 TD , 8 INT , QB rating 76.
Played two more years , but his numbers were awful , retired shortly thereafter.
3) Peyton Manning , played until he was 39. His last productive year was 2014 at age 38. He threw for 4700 YDS , 39 TD , 16 INT , QB Rating 101.
The following year at age 39 , he fell off a cliff. 2200 YDS , 9 TD , 17 INT , QB Rating 67. Retired shortly thereafter.
4) John Elway , played until he was 38. His last productive year was 1998 at age 38. He threw for 2800 YDS , 22 TD , 10 INT , QB Rating 93.
He retired the following year.
5) Joe Montana , played until he was 38. His last productive year was 1994 at age 38. He threw for 3200 YDS , 16 TD , 9 INT , QB Rating 83.
He retired the following year.
6) Dan Marino , played until he was 38. His last productive year was 1998 at age 37. He threw for over 3400 YDS , 23 TD , 15 INT , QB Rating 80.
The following year at age 39 he fell off a cliff. 2400 YDS , 12 TD , 17 INT , QB Rating 67.
He retired the following year.
First , what this research shows , is that there isn't a gradual , slow decline in production with an aging QB.
When they go , the drop off is considerable. It just happens , not something you can foresee.
Secondly , outside of Brett Favre and Warren Moon , none of the other QB's played into there 40's.
Favre made it to 41 , but was only productive up to age 40. Warren Moon made it to 44 , but only productive to age 41. That's it , no other QB's have played at a pro bowl caliber level into there 40's.
Not Elway , Montana or Marino...
In other words , Favre and Moon are the exception to the rule.
How does this relate to Eli Manning? And Tom Brady?
When Eli Manning goes , it's not going to be gradual. At age 37 he was productive. There is no guarantee , that at age 39 he will be the same player. It will not be gradual , or something you can plan for. When he goes , he's gonna drop off a cliff and fast.
The same thing can be said for Tom Brady. When he drops , its gonna happen suddenly.
The odds are not in Eli Manning's favor that he's gonna gradually decline , and that it's something the Giants can plan for.
If you don't have the next QB in waiting when you have the chance , you may end up being the Dolphins who still haven't found the next Marino almost 20 years later....
Thank you mrvax
Quarterbacks don’t get hit the way they once did. Nutrition and general health maintenance are much better now . Guys like Jurgy and Snake abused themselves. So it should be no surprise that guys like Brady and Brees can sustain a high level of play as they press hard against the 40 barrier. But everybody ages on their own timetable .
Thank you BocaGene
Quarterbacks don’t get hit the way they once did. Nutrition and general health maintenance are much better now . Guys like Jurgy and Snake abused themselves. So it should be no surprise that guys like Brady and Brees can sustain a high level of play as they press hard against the 40 barrier. But everybody ages on their own timetable .
I forgot about Mcnabb , another prime example
I also realize that you cannot change the mind of the people that see it the other way. I don’t know if you are trying to change minds with these posts or just looking for well thought out football talk. Either way it seems these posts end up in the same draft a QB don’t draft a QB discussions. I don’t think any stats you throw out is going to change people’s mind. Nonetheless, thanks for some good reading.
It's the hardest position in all of professional sports to be great.
Anyone who doesn't see Manning's arm strength on many throws lacking isn't watching.
He can make a lot of the throws some times. But he can't make all of them all of the time. In 2011 he could put the ball anywhere. This guy can't.
Tough part is the old system should benefit an older QB. Lots of quick, short throws. Lots of using your brain and not your arm.
I don't think he's going to be terrible next year, but it would take a Renaissance, not just a better line to get to championship level play.
This team is not a win now team. Our O right now is a mess. We literally have no OL. We have health questions at WR. Even if Eli plays like he did in 2016 which wasnt great that is not enough. Our secondary is a mess and now we are asking DRC to take a pay cut, he will probably not and get that money somewhere else. We have 1 safety and still looking for the other. We finally traded for a real LB but we still need more. The DL is stable but we havent lit up the pass rush.
This season is a rebuild season, get the new QB ready, we will probably draft high again and be ready to compete next season. Keeping Eli and drafting a QB does this team no good. If we dont draft a QB this season its not the worst thing because we will have a high draft pick again next year. I am in the Eli is done camp, I was in that same camp before last season. Those that are still seeing the 2011 Eli need to take off the rose colored glasses. His best football was 5 years ago. It's been a nice run, let him go in FA and catch on with a team that has all of the pieces except the QB and see if he can be average enough for them. Thank you Eli and good luck with your next team.
Of these 52 Super Bowls, 26 have been won by QBs drafted at position 11 in the Round One or lower, and 26 have been won by QBs drafted at position 10 or higher in Round One.
The breakdown on the 26 SBs won by players drafted AFTER position 11, Round One is as follows:
Lower Round One: 4 players, 4 SB wins.
Round Two: 2 players, 2 SB wins
Round Three: 4 players, 7 SB wins
Round Four: 1 player, 1 SB win
After Round Four or undrafted: 6 players, 12 SB wins
As this brief recap shows, it really doesn't matter WHERE you draft your Super Bowl QB, what matters is who the scouts and the draft team, INCLUDING HC and GM and probably EXCLUDING ownership are and how good their talent evaluation system is.
I also realize that you cannot change the mind of the people that see it the other way. I don’t know if you are trying to change minds with these posts or just looking for well thought out football talk. Either way it seems these posts end up in the same draft a QB don’t draft a QB discussions. I don’t think any stats you throw out is going to change people’s mind. Nonetheless, thanks for some good reading.
Mattyblue , thank you
yatqb thank you
This team is not a win now team. Our O right now is a mess. We literally have no OL. We have health questions at WR. Even if Eli plays like he did in 2016 which wasnt great that is not enough. Our secondary is a mess and now we are asking DRC to take a pay cut, he will probably not and get that money somewhere else. We have 1 safety and still looking for the other. We finally traded for a real LB but we still need more. The DL is stable but we havent lit up the pass rush.
This season is a rebuild season, get the new QB ready, we will probably draft high again and be ready to compete next season. Keeping Eli and drafting a QB does this team no good. If we dont draft a QB this season its not the worst thing because we will have a high draft pick again next year. I am in the Eli is done camp, I was in that same camp before last season. Those that are still seeing the 2011 Eli need to take off the rose colored glasses. His best football was 5 years ago. It's been a nice run, let him go in FA and catch on with a team that has all of the pieces except the QB and see if he can be average enough for them. Thank you Eli and good luck with your next team.
Rudy5757 thank you
Rjanyg thank you
GiantsFC thank you
Of these 52 Super Bowls, 26 have been won by QBs drafted at position 11 in the Round One or lower, and 26 have been won by QBs drafted at position 10 or higher in Round One.
The breakdown on the 26 SBs won by players drafted AFTER position 11, Round One is as follows:
Lower Round One: 4 players, 4 SB wins.
Round Two: 2 players, 2 SB wins
Round Three: 4 players, 7 SB wins
Round Four: 1 player, 1 SB win
After Round Four or undrafted: 6 players, 12 SB wins
As this brief recap shows, it really doesn't matter WHERE you draft your Super Bowl QB, what matters is who the scouts and the draft team, INCLUDING HC and GM and probably EXCLUDING ownership are and how good their talent evaluation system is.
Jim, I appreciate your point. Clearly a QB can come from any round. However, correct me if I am wrong, but what you are saying is that 26 super bowls (half) have been won by QBs drafted in the top 10, and the other 26 by QBs 11 and on? That would greatly favor taking a QB in the top 10 statistically speaking. Basically it is the top 10 picks vs the field (currently greater than 220 picks..historically even more).
This team is not a win now team. Our O right now is a mess. We literally have no OL. We have health questions at WR. Even if Eli plays like he did in 2016 which wasnt great that is not enough. Our secondary is a mess and now we are asking DRC to take a pay cut, he will probably not and get that money somewhere else. We have 1 safety and still looking for the other. We finally traded for a real LB but we still need more. The DL is stable but we havent lit up the pass rush.
This season is a rebuild season, get the new QB ready, we will probably draft high again and be ready to compete next season. Keeping Eli and drafting a QB does this team no good. If we dont draft a QB this season its not the worst thing because we will have a high draft pick again next year. I am in the Eli is done camp, I was in that same camp before last season. Those that are still seeing the 2011 Eli need to take off the rose colored glasses. His best football was 5 years ago. It's been a nice run, let him go in FA and catch on with a team that has all of the pieces except the QB and see if he can be average enough for them. Thank you Eli and good luck with your next team.
I agree because if not their is also chance of QB controversy if Eli comes out of the gate throwing interceptions or losing splits the team up and that invites culture problems however if they can build a line then I think Eli might be highly motivated and have a great season wanting to prove that he can still play thereby erasing the stench of last year .....Also in the case of the latter I think that if Barkley is there at #2 then they should take him ....if not Josh Rosen would be my pick try and trade Eli to Broncos !
Others believe Eli’s decline over the past two years has been due to a poor OL.
And both groups can be correct.
The pick all turns on whether new Giants management has enough info to make an informed decision on Webb as the hope is the Giants won’t be picking in the top 10 again for awhile (fingers crossed). It has been said the next two QB classes are poor to average.
A franchise altering decision awaits Gettleman.
As this brief recap shows, it really doesn't matter WHERE you draft your Super Bowl QB, what matters is who the scouts and the draft team, INCLUDING HC and GM and probably EXCLUDING ownership are and how good their talent evaluation system is.
Sorry, Jim, but as Jarvis pointed out, your analysis supports the argument that once you get outside the top 10, it becomes statistically much harder to win the Super Bowl. And that doesn't even consider the fact that there is an anomaly in the data called Tom Brady who alone accounts for almost a quarter of those 26 Superbowls won by guys picked whenever.
The QB is the most important position on the field. It's silly to think you can just grab one anywhere in the draft and assume you can win with any of them. The NFL draft is not a random dispersion of talent.
Not so - necessarily.
It's a reaction to the ignoring of or flailng on the core roster with regards to some key positions for too long. And as a recurring trend here even longer.
It's not wanting any new QB to have to chuck n duck.
It's not enjoying that weak brand of ball.. as entertainment.
It's to take advantage of the hype to garner a Kings ransom of premium picks.
It's the idea that your targeted player this year may well still be on the board anyway.
Win. Or.Loose.
Not a modelling agency or social function.
His primary stats show it, he scrambles less (and it was much before), he fumbles more in the pocket with one hit, his eyes drop toward the rush, his inaccuracies on downfield throws are suffering both short/long indicating using more arm and less body, he is less patient going thru reads.
But he is the best QB on the roster so lets keep starting him...
You missed the entire point of this discussion, didn't you? Was someone suggesting when you hit on a QB after the 10th pick that it is fools gold and you should cut him? The discussion was that the odds go down, not evaporate.
These threads really get bogged down with some irrational crap.
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As this brief recap shows, it really doesn't matter WHERE you draft your Super Bowl QB, what matters is who the scouts and the draft team, INCLUDING HC and GM and probably EXCLUDING ownership are and how good their talent evaluation system is.
Sorry, Jim, but as Jarvis pointed out, your analysis supports the argument that once you get outside the top 10, it becomes statistically much harder to win the Super Bowl. And that doesn't even consider the fact that there is an anomaly in the data called Tom Brady who alone accounts for almost a quarter of those 26 Superbowls won by guys picked whenever.
The QB is the most important position on the field. It's silly to think you can just grab one anywhere in the draft and assume you can win with any of them. The NFL draft is not a random dispersion of talent.
Don't forget Montana has 4...so between brady and montana that accounts for 9 of the super bowls in those 26.
Peyton had the neck injury. That accelerated his decline. Not saying he would have been playing at his typical level, or like Brady, but his age was less a factor than the nerve damage from the neck.
Moon had one of the most underrated arms ever. He threw a laser. One of the tightest spiral you will ever see. I was on the field in the early 90s for a Houston/Skins game and during warm-ups I could hear Moon's ball literally whistle when he threw it.
Favre was a unique talent and it should as no surprise that he last as long as he did.
But the common denominators for Elway/Moon/Favre? Arm strength. Those guys were blessed by the football Gods with this incredible gift to throw a football. That's what allows these players to play longer. Additionally, they were incredible, mobile athletes.
Eli has a good arm - not elite like these guy - and he's an ordinary athlete. So it's reasonable to conclude, from my perspective, that he is well into his decline and will likely not have some bounce back that give hope...
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Cut Drew Brees?
You missed the entire point of this discussion, didn't you? Was someone suggesting when you hit on a QB after the 10th pick that it is fools gold and you should cut him? The discussion was that the odds go down, not evaporate.
These threads really get bogged down with some irrational crap.
The magic number based on his data is around 39-40. Brees turns 40 in January. It’s a fair question if we’re going off the OP data.
WillVab , no that wasn't my point at all.
What the data shows , is that an aging franchise QB like Drew Brees , can be highly productive one year , and then the very next year when your not expecting it , he's gonna fall off a cliff.
It's not gonna be this gradual decline , when he goes , he's gonna go bad quickly.
When that happens for him , I don't know. It's not foreseeable , but the research shows the odds are not in his favor.
Interestingly Brees is a free agent. I have heard rumors that the Saints are thinking of trading up to get Baker Mayfield , cuz they see him as the heir apparent to Brees.
I think the Saints realize Brees can't play at a high level forever. Eventually they have to find his replacement.
Peyton had the neck injury. That accelerated his decline. Not saying he would have been playing at his typical level, or like Brady, but his age was less a factor than the nerve damage from the neck.
Moon had one of the most underrated arms ever. He threw a laser. One of the tightest spiral you will ever see. I was on the field in the early 90s for a Houston/Skins game and during warm-ups I could hear Moon's ball literally whistle when he threw it.
Favre was a unique talent and it should as no surprise that he last as long as he did.
But the common denominators for Elway/Moon/Favre? Arm strength. Those guys were blessed by the football Gods with this incredible gift to throw a football. That's what allows these players to play longer. Additionally, they were incredible, mobile athletes.
Eli has a good arm - not elite like these guy - and he's an ordinary athlete. So it's reasonable to conclude, from my perspective, that he is well into his decline and will likely not have some bounce back that give hope...
Bw in DC , great point
I agree , Moon , Elway , Favre all had big arms.
When there arm strength started to decline , it was still strong enough to make the throws that regular QB's with average arms would have had to retire at the same age.
I think a stong case can be made that Eli already hit that cliff. He's been brutally bad the last two years. Expecting him to bounce back to prime Eli form could be a devastating thing for this franchise if they pass on one of these QB's.