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NFT: NCAA Selection Sunday

Reeses Pieces : 3/11/2018 9:05 am
March Madness is here! It looks like Virginia, Villanova, Kansas, and Xavier have locked up 1 seeds. Tar Heel fans may want to debate Xavier. Anyway, I'm looking forward to tonight's draw. Here is a link to the bracket matrix.
Bracket Matrix - ( New Window )
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if Creighton beats  
PaulBlakeTSU : 3/11/2018 10:07 pm : link
Kansas State, that is.
RE: RE: Virginiaís bracket is cake  
WillVAB : 3/11/2018 10:24 pm : link
In comment 13859315 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 13859137 dpinzow said:


Quote:


If they donít get to the final four this year they never will. They have a potential tough sweet 16 game but thatís it



You really underestimate the depth and quality of Kentucky and Arizona. Between them, they have at least nine pros right now. And both are peaking.

Both are dramatically under-seeded. AZ should have been at least a#3, and same with KY, who played in the SEC and won the SEC tournament. The SEC got 8 teams in and were arguably the best conference top to bottom this year...


Agree. Any UVA fan not worried is lying to themselves. I think they got screwed as the number 1 overall. Nova has an easier region.
Who has Arizona beaten?  
Greg from LI : 3/11/2018 10:46 pm : link
No one. Absolutely no one. Not a single victory over a team that finished the season ranked. They lost to UCLA last month and were taken to OT by them in their conference semis, and UCLA would be no higher than 10th place in the ACC (48 on Pomeroy). Lost to a nondescript Oregon (#76 on Pomeroy) team a few weeks ago. Lost to a sorry Washington team (98 on Pomeroy). 14-4 in that conference - seriously? You can't run the table in that conference, I'm sorry, you've got major holes.

Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.
I didn't think SU would make it in  
BlackLight : 3/11/2018 10:58 pm : link
I thought they probably needed one more quality win somewhere in their schedule. Turns out the win at Louisville probably made the difference, since the Cardinals didn't make it in.

While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.

People can laugh at SU making it in, but they laughed two years ago when SU got in as a 10 seed, and then went to the Final Four.

RE: Who has Arizona beaten?  
bw in dc : 3/11/2018 11:05 pm : link
In comment 13859348 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
No one. Absolutely no one. Not a single victory over a team that finished the season ranked. They lost to UCLA last month and were taken to OT by them in their conference semis, and UCLA would be no higher than 10th place in the ACC (48 on Pomeroy). Lost to a nondescript Oregon (#76 on Pomeroy) team a few weeks ago. Lost to a sorry Washington team (98 on Pomeroy). 14-4 in that conference - seriously? You can't run the table in that conference, I'm sorry, you've got major holes.

Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.


I would be careful just making a resume/numerical analysis. Have you seen AZ play? Because right now AZ passes the most important test - the eye test. The are very talented - deep and big. You know damn well these conference games can be very tight because these teams know each other very well. So I wouldnít put a lot of stock in score differentials within conference games. UCLA btw is very young. But Kris Wilkes is a lottery pick, or close to it. They are in the tournament and not a bad team at all...

I noticed you didnít comment on Kentucky.
Well the eye test nonsense aside  
MetsAreBack : 3/11/2018 11:11 pm : link
It's a shitty draw for uva.

Then again two years ago UNC got screwed with a world class Kentucky team somehow seeded 4th, a borderline one seed xavier seeded two and West Virginia a very strong three in their bracket.

And then they all lost before playing UNC.

That same year uva fans were freaked out about playing Michigan state in Chicago in the elite 8. And they lost to a 15 seed. All uva had to do was beat Syracuse.

Kenpom and all the other metrics are great - this time of year it's a one game sample size where stakes are at their highest and we have no idea how a 19 year old is going to react. Throw them out the window. Should be fun.
Kentucky's OK  
Greg from LI : 3/11/2018 11:18 pm : link
Unlike Arizona, they at least have beaten a good team lately with the win over Tennessee. Very up and down team, very young, very erratic. Never played us before, no experience against our defense. Teams like that tend to struggle against us. If we aren't the most disciplined team in the country, we're damned close to it. The teams that beat us are usually led by upperclassmen. Often they have faced our defense before and aren't as taken aback by it. That's one of the reasons I am glad to finally avoid MSU's bracket - Tom Izzo is very familiar with the pack line after facing Dick Bennett and Wisconsin running it for years in the Big 10. I believe strongly that contributed to our losses to them in past tournaments.

And I simply think you're underestimating just how bad the Pac-12 is. It's maybe the 7th or 8th best conference nationally. I'm amazed they got even the three bids they received - Arizona State has no business whatsoever in the tournament. A lot of top teams would look fantastic after waltzing through the Pac-12 tournament. I daresay we look rather good after beating three teams in the ACCT that are better than anyone Arizona has played.

Yeah, Ayton's really good. So's Bagley. He dropped 30 on us but we still beat Duke at Cameron.
RE: Who has Arizona beaten?  
WillVAB : 3/11/2018 11:21 pm : link
In comment 13859348 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
No one. Absolutely no one. Not a single victory over a team that finished the season ranked. They lost to UCLA last month and were taken to OT by them in their conference semis, and UCLA would be no higher than 10th place in the ACC (48 on Pomeroy). Lost to a nondescript Oregon (#76 on Pomeroy) team a few weeks ago. Lost to a sorry Washington team (98 on Pomeroy). 14-4 in that conference - seriously? You can't run the table in that conference, I'm sorry, you've got major holes.

Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.


UVA lost to Virginia Tech. UVA is not invincible. A potential matchup vs Arizona/Kentucky is a tough draw ó especially for a program that doesnít have a great track record getting deep in the tourney.

Jeff Sagarin  
PaulBlakeTSU : 3/11/2018 11:25 pm : link
offers a number of different ratings models, one of which weighting recent games most heavily.

"The RECENT, is score-based and weights RECENT play more heavily than earlier games. Its effect will become
more pronounced the longer a season goes if a given team happens to have an upward or downward trend."

Under the Recent model, Kentucky is #1 and Arizona is #4. They are both playing very strong basketball lately. It will not be an easy game should we face either one of them.
RE: Well the eye test nonsense aside  
WillVAB : 3/11/2018 11:28 pm : link
In comment 13859368 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
It's a shitty draw for uva.

Then again two years ago UNC got screwed with a world class Kentucky team somehow seeded 4th, a borderline one seed xavier seeded two and West Virginia a very strong three in their bracket.

And then they all lost before playing UNC.

That same year uva fans were freaked out about playing Michigan state in Chicago in the elite 8. And they lost to a 15 seed. All uva had to do was beat Syracuse.

Kenpom and all the other metrics are great - this time of year it's a one game sample size where stakes are at their highest and we have no idea how a 19 year old is going to react. Throw them out the window. Should be fun.


UNC is in a good spot to make a run at repeating. Get past Michigan and odds are they come out of the region.
Yep, we did lose to Tek  
Greg from LI : 3/11/2018 11:36 pm : link
In a game against our biggest rivals, a team that BTW probably would have been the second best team in the sorryass Pac-12, we lost an OT game on a putback with a second on the clock after missing a few FT attempts that could have iced the game. I can live with that defeat, much as it rankles to lose to the carnival barker.

Never said we were invincible. I said I'm confident we'll beat them because we've beaten better teams than them throughout the year, and because Arizona hasn't played a decent defensive team in months, if they've played one at all.
RE: Kentucky's OK  
bw in dc : 3/11/2018 11:40 pm : link
In comment 13859374 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Unlike Arizona, they at least have beaten a good team lately with the win over Tennessee. Very up and down team, very young, very erratic. Never played us before, no experience against our defense. Teams like that tend to struggle against us. If we aren't the most disciplined team in the country, we're damned close to it. The teams that beat us are usually led by upperclassmen. Often they have faced our defense before and aren't as taken aback by it. That's one of the reasons I am glad to finally avoid MSU's bracket - Tom Izzo is very familiar with the pack line after facing Dick Bennett and Wisconsin running it for years in the Big 10. I believe strongly that contributed to our losses to them in past tournaments.

And I simply think you're underestimating just how bad the Pac-12 is. It's maybe the 7th or 8th best conference nationally. I'm amazed they got even the three bids they received - Arizona State has no business whatsoever in the tournament. A lot of top teams would look fantastic after waltzing through the Pac-12 tournament. I daresay we look rather good after beating three teams in the ACCT that are better than anyone Arizona has played.

Yeah, Ayton's really good. So's Bagley. He dropped 30 on us but we still beat Duke at Cameron.


Iím a Darden grad, so I follow the Cavs closely. Love Bennett and consider him the best in the country mixing system with talent. But Ayton is Hakeem Olajuwon. And heís a very competent passer out of doubles and triples. If Zona is the team, itís going to take a big effort to slay them, especially if they are getting open threes.
Btw...  
bw in dc : 3/11/2018 11:47 pm : link
AZ St isnít the worst of the teams in. The beat Kansas, K-State, and Xavier. Just lost some close games down the stretch.

Oklahoma is a complete travesty. Won 2 games since the start of February. And 4 games since the beginning of the year. Iím totally convinced they are in for one reason - Trae Young.
SU reaction video  
BlackLight : 3/12/2018 1:37 am : link
.
Link - ( New Window )
I laughed..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/12/2018 8:11 am : link
last week when they were talking to Lunardi at halftime of one of the ACC tournament games:

Quote:
While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.


After he didn't even have them in the first out he said "It doesn't matter where I project Syracuse, I'm always wrong about them, so they are probably going to be in".

When you stack Cuse up against the other bubble teams, their strength of schedule really popped out. Lunardi was really high on Louisville, but SU had more Quad 1 wins and a much better SOS. But now they just need to win. ASU is a team that shouldn't be in. St. Mary's was definitely screwed. I thought they were in for sure.
St. Mary's was unlucky rather than screwed  
Bobby Humphrey's Earpad : 3/12/2018 8:27 am : link
I'm sure when the coach & AD put that schedule together he thought he would have three non-conference wins against tourney teams in Georgia, Cal and Dayton. None of those teams made the tournament.
RE: I laughed..  
dep026 : 3/12/2018 8:54 am : link
In comment 13859472 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
last week when they were talking to Lunardi at halftime of one of the ACC tournament games:



Quote:


While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.



After he didn't even have them in the first out he said "It doesn't matter where I project Syracuse, I'm always wrong about them, so they are probably going to be in".

When you stack Cuse up against the other bubble teams, their strength of schedule really popped out. Lunardi was really high on Louisville, but SU had more Quad 1 wins and a much better SOS. But now they just need to win. ASU is a team that shouldn't be in. St. Mary's was definitely screwed. I thought they were in for sure.


I have a few problems with Syracuse getting in.

1. Their preseason schedule always seems light when compared to bigger schools. Plus, they didnt beat anyone in the preseason. Unless you count Buffalo
2. One road game in 2017. ONE. Two on neutral floors.
3. Two road wins in ACC play. Against a terrible Pitt team and a Louisville team that didnt make the tournmanet.
4. 2 Quality wins in ACC - VT and Miami.
5. Their SOS gets bumed not by their choosing. They got whooped by Kansas and just play in a tough conference. And they had a losign record in the conference.

I understand that some of the mid-majors dont face the same kind of conference schedule - but thats out of their control. A team like Ok St. who also plays all home games in preseason but had some better wins in conference (kansas twice, TT, WV, Texas, Oklahoma twice) and they beat FSU in preseason.

Oklahoma state is the school that has a gripe.
RE: RE: I laughed..  
CGiants07 : 3/12/2018 9:24 am : link
In comment 13859504 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 13859472 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


last week when they were talking to Lunardi at halftime of one of the ACC tournament games:



Quote:


While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.



After he didn't even have them in the first out he said "It doesn't matter where I project Syracuse, I'm always wrong about them, so they are probably going to be in".

When you stack Cuse up against the other bubble teams, their strength of schedule really popped out. Lunardi was really high on Louisville, but SU had more Quad 1 wins and a much better SOS. But now they just need to win. ASU is a team that shouldn't be in. St. Mary's was definitely screwed. I thought they were in for sure.



I have a few problems with Syracuse getting in.

1. Their preseason schedule always seems light when compared to bigger schools. Plus, they didnt beat anyone in the preseason. Unless you count Buffalo
2. One road game in 2017. ONE. Two on neutral floors.
3. Two road wins in ACC play. Against a terrible Pitt team and a Louisville team that didnt make the tournmanet.
4. 2 Quality wins in ACC - VT and Miami.
5. Their SOS gets bumed not by their choosing. They got whooped by Kansas and just play in a tough conference. And they had a losign record in the conference.

I understand that some of the mid-majors dont face the same kind of conference schedule - but thats out of their control. A team like Ok St. who also plays all home games in preseason but had some better wins in conference (kansas twice, TT, WV, Texas, Oklahoma twice) and they beat FSU in preseason.

Oklahoma state is the school that has a gripe.


We won at Miami too
Missed that  
dep026 : 3/12/2018 9:41 am : link
That was a road game. But I had that as a quality win earlier in post.
SU..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/12/2018 9:48 am : link
also beat Clemson.

Quote:
4. 2 Quality wins in ACC - VT and Miami.


Again - they had as many or more "Quad 1" wins as the other bubble teams they were up against. Then, add in the 17th ranked SOS (vs. 47 for Louisville and 45 for ND), and excluding them would actually have been worse.
You missed Clemson too  
MetsAreBack : 3/12/2018 9:51 am : link
so not sure what to make of your post, lots of errors in there so not sure if the rest of it was accurate.

This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.

There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.
And while the preseason schedule seemed...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/12/2018 9:55 am : link
"easy". They did have name teams there and some eventual tourney teams too. It is what helped their SOS. THey beat Buffalo and Iona. Lost to St. Bonnie's.

They also beat a then undefeated Georgetown team, Maryland and UCONN. They also lost badly to Kansas.

But, when you have an almost identical resume as other bubble teams, but the SOS is much better - them getting in should have happened, and it is only because guys like Lunardi had them out that fuels a lot of the backlash
I do..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/12/2018 9:56 am : link
agree that the Quad metric isn't a great one to use.
Put my 2 cents complaint in  
jv : 3/12/2018 10:00 am : link
as a WVU fan I hate seeing my team get a 5 seed and Texas Tech get a 3. We've beat them twice (lost by 1 on the road for our only loss against them). We've beaten Virginia in non-conference. Their only quality non-conference win was Nevada. It's pretty easy to look at those 2 wins and say which is better than the other.
RE: Put my 2 cents complaint in  
MetsAreBack : 3/12/2018 10:02 am : link
In comment 13859599 jv said:
Quote:
as a WVU fan I hate seeing my team get a 5 seed and Texas Tech get a 3. We've beat them twice (lost by 1 on the road for our only loss against them). We've beaten Virginia in non-conference. Their only quality non-conference win was Nevada. It's pretty easy to look at those 2 wins and say which is better than the other.


Another great example of why this Quadrant system is completely lost/useless.
St Mary's has no excuses  
CGiants07 : 3/12/2018 10:27 am : link
They were excluded 2 years ago because of nd SOS and they turned down home games vs Rhode island and Creighton
RE: You missed Clemson too  
dep026 : 3/12/2018 10:36 am : link
In comment 13859581 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:
so not sure what to make of your post, lots of errors in there so not sure if the rest of it was accurate.

This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.

There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.


I missed the Clemson game as well. However, I stand firm that Syracuse got in not because of who they beat, its because of their conference.

They have 5 wins against tourney teams (Iona, Buffallo, VT, Miami, and Clemson) and 4 of them were home.

I am not a Syracuse hater or anything and if they go and win the whole thing, then good for them. But this quadrant thing is pretty screwed up and a team like Okie State has a legitimate beef of why they arent in there. But lets face it, there is always controversies when it comes to this.

I would haev taken Oklahoma and Syracuse out and put Okie St. and MTSU in.
RE: RE: You missed Clemson too  
CGiants07 : 3/12/2018 11:05 am : link
In comment 13859656 dep026 said:
Quote:
In comment 13859581 MetsAreBack said:


Quote:


so not sure what to make of your post, lots of errors in there so not sure if the rest of it was accurate.

This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.

There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.



I missed the Clemson game as well. However, I stand firm that Syracuse got in not because of who they beat, its because of their conference.

They have 5 wins against tourney teams (Iona, Buffallo, VT, Miami, and Clemson) and 4 of them were home.

I am not a Syracuse hater or anything and if they go and win the whole thing, then good for them. But this quadrant thing is pretty screwed up and a team like Okie State has a legitimate beef of why they arent in there. But lets face it, there is always controversies when it comes to this.

I would haev taken Oklahoma and Syracuse out and put Okie St. and MTSU in.


If you look at the metrics and quadrants and rip bpi and kenpom they choose the better resumes. May lost to a 200 +rpi team in conf tournament and need 1 good non conf win to sneak in, but they lost them all, ok state non conf SOS was over 300 which is why they missed
RE: Put my 2 cents complaint in  
CGiants07 : 3/12/2018 11:06 am : link
In comment 13859599 jv said:
Quote:
as a WVU fan I hate seeing my team get a 5 seed and Texas Tech get a 3. We've beat them twice (lost by 1 on the road for our only loss against them). We've beaten Virginia in non-conference. Their only quality non-conference win was Nevada. It's pretty easy to look at those 2 wins and say which is better than the other.


I had wvu and th flipped on my projected seeds
RE: RE: RE: You missed Clemson too  
dep026 : 3/12/2018 11:11 am : link
In comment 13859705 CGiants07 said:
Quote:
In comment 13859656 dep026 said:


Quote:


In comment 13859581 MetsAreBack said:


Quote:


so not sure what to make of your post, lots of errors in there so not sure if the rest of it was accurate.

This Quadrant metric is absolutely atrocious by the way. Hammers mid major schools who by definition dont get enough opportunities.... and is way too broad-brushed... beating #73 on the road is a hell of a lot different than a top 20 school.

There's a real common sense problem when MSU at 29-4 gets seeded a 3 (but a 10 loss UNC team that got crushed by MSU gets a 2) or St Marys goes 28-5 and loses out to an Oklahoma. And if you think the SEC is a good enough conference to deserve 8 tournament bids... then how is the conference champion seeded 5th? I feel like i'm taking crazy pills.



I missed the Clemson game as well. However, I stand firm that Syracuse got in not because of who they beat, its because of their conference.

They have 5 wins against tourney teams (Iona, Buffallo, VT, Miami, and Clemson) and 4 of them were home.

I am not a Syracuse hater or anything and if they go and win the whole thing, then good for them. But this quadrant thing is pretty screwed up and a team like Okie State has a legitimate beef of why they arent in there. But lets face it, there is always controversies when it comes to this.

I would haev taken Oklahoma and Syracuse out and put Okie St. and MTSU in.



If you look at the metrics and quadrants and rip bpi and kenpom they choose the better resumes. May lost to a 200 +rpi team in conf tournament and need 1 good non conf win to sneak in, but they lost them all, ok state non conf SOS was over 300 which is why they missed


Yeah Ok State had MUCH, MUCH better wins. I mean I dont think its even close comparing their wins to Syracuses.
Food for thought  
Greg from LI : 3/12/2018 11:22 am : link
A guy on Reddit has done a bunch of statistical analysis trying to find patterns for upsets. He goes back to 2011, when the last changes to the bracket were made. He uses Bart Torvik's numbers, which are very similar to Ken Pomeroy's.

In 4-13 games, there have been four upsets in that period. When the 4 seed has either AdjO or AdjD ranked lower than 40 AND the 13 seed has an AdjO or AdjD inside the top 50, the 4 seed is 1-3. When those conditions aren't met, the 4 seed is 22-1 (Morehead State over Louisville was the one exception).

Arizona's defense is ranked 67 and Buffalos offense is 47. Hmmmmm....
I think..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/12/2018 11:24 am : link
Oklahoma St. has a case, but probably vs. a couple different teams.

Cuse was 20-13. OSU was 19-14. Cuse has the 17th hardest SOS. OSU was 56th.

Beating Kansas twice is their huge notch. I'd have taken them before Oklahoma.
RE: I think..  
bw in dc : 3/12/2018 11:31 am : link
In comment 13859738 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
Oklahoma St. has a case, but probably vs. a couple different teams.

Cuse was 20-13. OSU was 19-14. Cuse has the 17th hardest SOS. OSU was 56th.

Beating Kansas twice is their huge notch. I'd have taken them before Oklahoma.


Oak State has a great case over Oklahoma. Unfortunately, they don't have the marquee player that ESPN has been blowing for the entire season - Trae Young. Purely a selection based on marketing.

The ACC is deep - as usual. I think ND has an interesting case over Cuse (especially with Bonzi out) and Louisville is likely getting left out for all of the off-season catastrophe. They have played really well under the circumstances. That loss against UVA, one of the most insane collapses ever, was tragic...
Here's the link  
Greg from LI : 3/12/2018 11:32 am : link
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Link - ( New Window )
Louisville was left out because they had no big wins  
Greg from LI : 3/12/2018 11:36 am : link
Their most impressive wins are a pair each against FSU and VT, and a hobbled ND
RE: Louisville was left out because they had no big wins  
bw in dc : 3/12/2018 11:42 am : link
In comment 13859759 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
Their most impressive wins are a pair each against FSU and VT, and a hobbled ND


Thought they beat Seton Hall. No? They beat UVA - let's face it...that defied logic... ;)
Oklahoma  
dep026 : 3/12/2018 11:48 am : link
does not belong in whatsoever. I would take Cuse over them most likely.
RE: RE: Louisville was left out because they had no big wins  
Mad Mike : 3/12/2018 12:20 pm : link
In comment 13859767 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Thought they beat Seton Hall. No? They beat UVA - let's face it...that defied logic... ;)

Louisville? They didn't beat UVA.
He's talking about the miracle ending  
Greg from LI : 3/12/2018 12:23 pm : link
.
RE: Oklahoma  
MetsAreBack : 3/12/2018 1:02 pm : link
In comment 13859783 dep026 said:
Quote:
does not belong in whatsoever. I would take Cuse over them most likely.



Yeah, i had significantly less issue with these out bracket teams ... than with the Alabama and Oklahoma selections. Everyone talks about "quad 1 wins" - Alabama lost 15 fucking games. Oklahoma won how many road games exactly?

I know some of the mid majors play easy schedules - its not like the two teams above played murderers row either. I'd always take a mid major with 5 losses (St Marys - who did beat New Mexico St and Gonzaga) or 7 loss Mid Tennessee ... over the proven mediocrity above. Hey I'm sure beating Alabama on the road counted as a Quad 1 win for some major schools though.
RE: RE: Oklahoma  
bw in dc : 3/12/2018 1:48 pm : link
In comment 13859893 MetsAreBack said:
Quote:

I know some of the mid majors play easy schedules - its not like the two teams above played murderers row either. I'd always take a mid major with 5 losses (St Marys - who did beat New Mexico St and Gonzaga) or 7 loss Mid Tennessee ... over the proven mediocrity above. Hey I'm sure beating Alabama on the road counted as a Quad 1 win for some major schools though.


Mid-majors could solve their problem by not having a post-season tournament. Go old Ivy League and just give the auto-bid to the regular season winner.

But obviously economics is driving their decision (more) because they must make money from their conference tournaments...
RE: The reliance on RPI  
The 12th Man : 3/12/2018 2:23 pm : link
In comment 13859303 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
is maddening.



Reliance on RPI since when? RPI is not even considered any more St. Bonaventure had an RPI of 21 and they have a play in game against UCLA. It is ridiculous that conferences that are getting in the tournament with under .500 conference schedules get automatic births instead of play in games. Syracuse getting in as a play in makes sense Bonnies 13-4 in conference does not. They keep screwing the mid major, yet the best part of the tournament is when the mid-major knocks off the major conferences. So then why are we limiting the mid-major and continuing to put in mediocre major conference teams?
RE: As a Virginia fan  
The 12th Man : 3/12/2018 2:25 pm : link
In comment 13859310 PaulBlakeTSU said:
Quote:
that 4/5 Arizona vs. Kentucky match-up worries me. Their resume and computer ratings belie their potential and ceiling and how good they will likely be in a tournament setting where they play with intensity. Teams dominated by freshman often have difficulty playing consistently throughout the season and committing to every possession in random mid-week road games. But come the tournament, they are more locked in.

Arizona worries me because Ayton is perhaps the most dominant player in the country and Trier is a stud as well. More than that, Sean Miller runs the packline defense (or at least he did in prior seasons) so if we meet up with them, they will be accustomed to dealing with our style.

Both Kentucky and Arizona have a ridiculous amount length as well, which is something that often gives us trouble.

But we will have to get past UMBC and Creighton first, and Creighton won't be a walkover.


I am telling you Davidson is a much better team than people think. Their kids can hit shots from the parking lot. Kentucky will have their hands full. Then may not survive game 1. Arizona on the other hand is hot and I agree believe they are going to give Virginia fits if they have to play them.
SU gets critcized  
BlackLight : 3/12/2018 2:36 pm : link
nearly every year because of supposedly weak non-conference SOS. This year was actually better than most years - it's just that Buffalo, Toledo, and Iona don't jump off the page as "name" programs. And pretty much every year, SU plays an early season tournament where they wind up matched against somebody good.

Boeheim does this on purpose. Playing in a major conference, he knows his team doesn't need to make an impression by scheduling and beating flashy names. Most years, just taking care of business early in the year, and hanging tough in the ACC will be enough.
This is what I can't stand...  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/12/2018 2:55 pm : link
Quote:
They keep screwing the mid major, yet the best part of the tournament is when the mid-major knocks off the major conferences. So then why are we limiting the mid-major and continuing to put in mediocre major conference teams?


I look back at the back-to-back years Bucknell won tourney games. They beat Kansas the first year as a 15 seed. Only had 4 losses. The next year, they have 3 losses, beat 3 top 25 teams and are a 9 seed, which is ridiculous for a Patriot League team, but then they knock off Arkansas just to get the matchup against a #1 seed.

Some of these small conferences get shit on. Bucknell rolled through the league this year, and had 30 point wins in their conference tourney. They lost by 12 at Chapel Hill this year and were in the game the entire way. They blew through Siena and Ball State and beat Vermont. Beat Richmond and LaSalle and rolled the Patriot League and get a 14 seed and draw MSU. They should be an 11 or 12 and have a decent shot at winning and instead are matched up against a team that is a style they will struggle with.

You can have mid-majors with 3 losses that are seeded 12 or worse. That's pretty bad.
RE: RE: As a Virginia fan  
Britt in VA : 3/12/2018 3:18 pm : link
In comment 13860083 The 12th Man said:
Quote:
In comment 13859310 PaulBlakeTSU said:


Quote:


that 4/5 Arizona vs. Kentucky match-up worries me. Their resume and computer ratings belie their potential and ceiling and how good they will likely be in a tournament setting where they play with intensity. Teams dominated by freshman often have difficulty playing consistently throughout the season and committing to every possession in random mid-week road games. But come the tournament, they are more locked in.

Arizona worries me because Ayton is perhaps the most dominant player in the country and Trier is a stud as well. More than that, Sean Miller runs the packline defense (or at least he did in prior seasons) so if we meet up with them, they will be accustomed to dealing with our style.

Both Kentucky and Arizona have a ridiculous amount length as well, which is something that often gives us trouble.

But we will have to get past UMBC and Creighton first, and Creighton won't be a walkover.



I am telling you Davidson is a much better team than people think. Their kids can hit shots from the parking lot. Kentucky will have their hands full. Then may not survive game 1. Arizona on the other hand is hot and I agree believe they are going to give Virginia fits if they have to play them.


Agreed.
Worst sports year ever continues....  
Metnut : 3/12/2018 3:40 pm : link
Isles miss playoffs by a point... Mets entire team gets injured and the season is over before the all-star break... Beckham misses almost the entire season and Giants win 3 games... Isles waste another promising start and might lose their franchise player via FA... ND loses its national player of the year candidate for most of the season, somehow rallies to get themselves in position to make the tourney, only to fall out of the bracket after Davidson upsets Rhode Island hours before the bracket is revealed. Brutal. And now its time for the Mets again.

Wouldn't mind seeing UVA, Providence, or NC State make a nice run in this tourney. Sick of Duke, Kentucky, Villanova, Kansas and UNC. Other than that, I'll root for as much bracket chaos as possible.
RE: Put my 2 cents complaint in  
WillVAB : 3/12/2018 3:48 pm : link
In comment 13859599 jv said:
Quote:
as a WVU fan I hate seeing my team get a 5 seed and Texas Tech get a 3. We've beat them twice (lost by 1 on the road for our only loss against them). We've beaten Virginia in non-conference. Their only quality non-conference win was Nevada. It's pretty easy to look at those 2 wins and say which is better than the other.


I think WVU makes the final four this year.
The 12th Man  
PaulBlakeTSU : 3/12/2018 4:01 pm : link
if not for RPI, St. Bonaventure wouldn't be in the tournament at all.

All the committee has been talking about this season is the quadrant system and "quadrant 1 wins." The quadrants are determined by RPI.

LOL  
MetsAreBack : 3/12/2018 6:34 pm : link
i was going to say -- nobody could stop talking about Quadrant 1 metrics this year... a metric that from what I can tell is far too broad to begin with (beating any top 75 school on the road counts... seriously?) ...and based on RPI.
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