NFT: NCAA Selection Sunday

Based on this matrix, the tourney is going to be wide open - for example the 5/6 seeds are all ripe for upsets.

Looking to survive the weekend in round 2. Hopefully the committee doesn’t F us by under seeding a solid team as an 8/9 like last season with Wisconsin.

In comment 13858489 The_Boss said:

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Looking to survive the weekend in round 2. Hopefully the committee doesn’t F us by under seeding a solid team as an 8/9 like last season with Wisconsin.

If you can’t beat a 8/9 seed... you don’t deserve to make it.

Win it all...

I'm hoping they pull out a 3 seed. Most bracket projections have them a 3 out west with Xavier 1 and North Carolina 2. I would rather that than others I've seen with UM 3, Duke 2, and Nova 1.

10 losses is a lot. I do think they do deserve to be ranked ahead of Duke though - which means the two seed in the East.

I guess the issue is what has Xavier done to deserve a 1? How is their body of work or strength of schedule better than Michigan States? Villanova pummeled them twice. Arizona St beat them easily. Everyone knows the Big 10 this year, but its still probably better/deeper than the Big East... and MSU also beat UNC.

If it were my call:

East: #1 Nova, #2 UNC, #3 Cincinnati, #4 WVU
South: #1 UVA, #2 Michigan, #3 Auburn, #4 Texas Tech
MW: #1 Kansas, #2 Xavier, #3 Purdue, #4 Tennessee/Kentucky loser
West: #1 MSU, #2 Duke, #3 Arizona, #4 Tenn/KY winner

They have won ugly a lot of the last couple of months, and the Big 10 is really down this year. They should be a 1 but iekly won't unless the committee places very high value on their early-season wins.

snagged a 1 seed. I still don't think it will happen. Now, I have not watched Cincinnati this year. I saw they were as high as 5th in the country at one point. Gary Clark is a solid player but what have they been doing all year (I know, winning) but how?

the point is Wisconsin wasn’t an 8-9 seed quality team. They should have been a 5-6 seed and then Nova’s playing someone else. Nobody suggesting Villanova was gonna win the whole thing, but if properly seeded, they wouldn’t have seen a top caliber, underseeded Wisconsin team early, and then who knows what the matchups would be. It’s frustrating to get that matchup that early in the tournament, especially when everyone measures your success by how far you advance.

Alabama and Arizona St in. Both were considered bubble teams

As they are introducing the teams alphabetically. Missouri got in, they were a bit of a bubble team. Notre Dame also NIT bound. Oklahoma got in

Just barely

comical

.

But they are also in. UCLA entered the PAC-12 tourney on the bubble but did enough to make it.

St. Mary’s out of the WCC did not make it, I think

is also awful.

What a fiasco.

St Bona made it, though, so that's cool.

Middle Tennessee St probably snubbed

Syracuse, Texas, Arizona State,and Oklahoma were all pretty weak picks

Wow

Virginia overall #1
Villanova #1 in the east
Kansas #1 in the midwest
Xavier #1 in the west

If they don’t get to the final four this year they never will. They have a potential tough sweet 16 game but that’s it

with a good matchup for them in Cincy, but that Arizona game could be a rough one. They have the best player in the country and this may be the year they finally break through, seems like they are playign better and looser since the whole scandal thing came out.

If Virginia Tech wins because that team is way better than an 8 seed

I actually think the Hokies could be the toughest game in there

and if not them, Duke. Pretty surprised it's neither.

Auburn and Clemson are also good teams at 4 and 5. Anybody’s bracket

it didn't they?

People can complain about Syracuse, but their strength of schedule was 17. Louisville, ND and Arizona State were 45 and higher.

They also beat three teams in the top 25 when they played them and had the same or better "quad 1" record as the others.

Xavier is a #1 seed in name only. UNC basically a de facto #1 as the #2 out west. Michigan #3, Gonzaga #4, OSU #5 out West. Lots of heavyweights in the Midwest and West, not so many in the South and East

probably deserved a 12 seed, but the get a 14 and play Michigan State.

but if they and Syracuse win in round 1, they play each other.

It hurts seeing MSU as 3 seed in Detroit.

is a disaster

In comment 13859155 FatMan in Charlotte said:

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it didn't they? People can complain about Syracuse, but their strength of schedule was 17. Louisville, ND and Arizona State were 45 and higher. They also beat three teams in the top 25 when they played them and had the same or better "quad 1" record as the others.

St. Mary's did not get in

March Madness - you get places like Cincinnati and Rhode Island that aren't exactly major markets with two teams each in the tournament (Xavier, Cincy in one case and Providence and URI in the other). Plus looking at the top seeds - Xavier, 'Nova - I mean these aren't exactly big state schools like in football. And Bucknell, LIU etc. - OK, they'll get knocked out but still. It's a lot of fun for a couple of weeks..

They won 13 games in the Big Ten this year, whereas Oklahoma couldn't even win a road game in their conference.

In comment 13859146 dpinzow said:

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I actually think the Hokies could be the toughest game in there

Agree. Va Tech/Bama worry me, but if they’re alive come next weekend, they could, at the very least, get to the regional final.

In the last 6 weeks, we have played 11 games against teams better than anyone on Arizona's Pac-12 schedule and gone 10-1 in those games. Several of those teams-UNC x 2, Clemson x 2, and Duke-are also ranked ahead of Arizona at Pomeroy. No one plays any defense in the Pac-12....Arizona has no idea what they are in for.

If they can even get past Creighton in the first place.

I believe you better be worried about Arizona because if they play smart and run everything through Ayton, they can beat anyone. Ayton is the best player in college basketball and the NBA's 1st pick this year. Arizona's supporting cast is good,not great.

is maddening.

They play Bama not Creighton.


I'm sure Ayton's great. So is Marvin Bagley, and he has a better supporting cast too, but we still beat Duke in their house.

We've played and beaten several teams on Arizona's level. The only team Arizona played all year who is even close to our level is Purdue, who destroyed them by 25.

that 4/5 Arizona vs. Kentucky match-up worries me. Their resume and computer ratings belie their potential and ceiling and how good they will likely be in a tournament setting where they play with intensity. Teams dominated by freshman often have difficulty playing consistently throughout the season and committing to every possession in random mid-week road games. But come the tournament, they are more locked in.

Arizona worries me because Ayton is perhaps the most dominant player in the country and Trier is a stud as well. More than that, Sean Miller runs the packline defense (or at least he did in prior seasons) so if we meet up with them, they will be accustomed to dealing with our style.

Both Kentucky and Arizona have a ridiculous amount length as well, which is something that often gives us trouble.

But we will have to get past UMBC and Creighton first, and Creighton won't be a walkover.

In comment 13859137 dpinzow said:

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If they don’t get to the final four this year they never will. They have a potential tough sweet 16 game but that’s it

You really underestimate the depth and quality of Kentucky and Arizona. Between them, they have at least nine pros right now. And both are peaking.

Both are dramatically under-seeded. AZ should have been at least a#3, and same with KY, who played in the SEC and won the SEC tournament. The SEC got 8 teams in and were arguably the best conference top to bottom this year...

Kansas State, that is.

In comment 13859315 bw in dc said:

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In comment 13859137 dpinzow said: Quote: If they don’t get to the final four this year they never will. They have a potential tough sweet 16 game but that’s it You really underestimate the depth and quality of Kentucky and Arizona. Between them, they have at least nine pros right now. And both are peaking. Both are dramatically under-seeded. AZ should have been at least a#3, and same with KY, who played in the SEC and won the SEC tournament. The SEC got 8 teams in and were arguably the best conference top to bottom this year...

Agree. Any UVA fan not worried is lying to themselves. I think they got screwed as the number 1 overall. Nova has an easier region.

No one. Absolutely no one. Not a single victory over a team that finished the season ranked. They lost to UCLA last month and were taken to OT by them in their conference semis, and UCLA would be no higher than 10th place in the ACC (48 on Pomeroy). Lost to a nondescript Oregon (#76 on Pomeroy) team a few weeks ago. Lost to a sorry Washington team (98 on Pomeroy). 14-4 in that conference - seriously? You can't run the table in that conference, I'm sorry, you've got major holes.

Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.

I thought they probably needed one more quality win somewhere in their schedule. Turns out the win at Louisville probably made the difference, since the Cardinals didn't make it in.

While Lunardi had them out for sure (and he's always wrong about SU), the BPI projection had them making the tournament with a 66% confidence after beating Clemson in their finale, and 98% after beating Wake Forest in the tournament. That seemed optimistic to me, but they got it right.

People can laugh at SU making it in, but they laughed two years ago when SU got in as a 10 seed, and then went to the Final Four.

In comment 13859348 Greg from LI said:

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No one. Absolutely no one. Not a single victory over a team that finished the season ranked. They lost to UCLA last month and were taken to OT by them in their conference semis, and UCLA would be no higher than 10th place in the ACC (48 on Pomeroy). Lost to a nondescript Oregon (#76 on Pomeroy) team a few weeks ago. Lost to a sorry Washington team (98 on Pomeroy). 14-4 in that conference - seriously? You can't run the table in that conference, I'm sorry, you've got major holes. Doesn't mean they can't beat us if they play their absolute best game, but I like our chances just fine. BTW, just because Sean Miller ran a defense using some similar concepts to ours doesn't mean that they're remotely prepared for ours.

I would be careful just making a resume/numerical analysis. Have you seen AZ play? Because right now AZ passes the most important test - the eye test. The are very talented - deep and big. You know damn well these conference games can be very tight because these teams know each other very well. So I wouldn’t put a lot of stock in score differentials within conference games. UCLA btw is very young. But Kris Wilkes is a lottery pick, or close to it. They are in the tournament and not a bad team at all...

I noticed you didn’t comment on Kentucky.

It's a shitty draw for uva.

Then again two years ago UNC got screwed with a world class Kentucky team somehow seeded 4th, a borderline one seed xavier seeded two and West Virginia a very strong three in their bracket.

And then they all lost before playing UNC.

That same year uva fans were freaked out about playing Michigan state in Chicago in the elite 8. And they lost to a 15 seed. All uva had to do was beat Syracuse.

Kenpom and all the other metrics are great - this time of year it's a one game sample size where stakes are at their highest and we have no idea how a 19 year old is going to react. Throw them out the window. Should be fun.

Unlike Arizona, they at least have beaten a good team lately with the win over Tennessee. Very up and down team, very young, very erratic. Never played us before, no experience against our defense. Teams like that tend to struggle against us. If we aren't the most disciplined team in the country, we're damned close to it. The teams that beat us are usually led by upperclassmen. Often they have faced our defense before and aren't as taken aback by it. That's one of the reasons I am glad to finally avoid MSU's bracket - Tom Izzo is very familiar with the pack line after facing Dick Bennett and Wisconsin running it for years in the Big 10. I believe strongly that contributed to our losses to them in past tournaments.

And I simply think you're underestimating just how bad the Pac-12 is. It's maybe the 7th or 8th best conference nationally. I'm amazed they got even the three bids they received - Arizona State has no business whatsoever in the tournament. A lot of top teams would look fantastic after waltzing through the Pac-12 tournament. I daresay we look rather good after beating three teams in the ACCT that are better than anyone Arizona has played.

Yeah, Ayton's really good. So's Bagley. He dropped 30 on us but we still beat Duke at Cameron.