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NFT: NHL Home Stretch thread - put this season out of its misery

pjcas18 : 3/12/2018 12:27 pm
so most of the hockey fans on BBI have their teams eliminated or close to it. See if anyone wants to discuss the tank-a-thon or playoffs.

Pretty much eliminated (of the BBI fan teams):
Rangers
Canadiens
Islanders
Senators
Hurricanes


Some fans still have teams alive
Bruins
Capitals
I've seen a Flyers fan on here

and of course our Penguins fan, plus the lone Vegas Knights fan.

Anyway more of us probably interested in Rasmus Dahlin than playoff seeding, but still some good races left.

Most teams have between 12 and 15 games left.

The Lightning and Predators, the two conference leaders, are on absolute fire. Both 9 - 0 - 1 in their last 10.

The Jets (my darkhorse) are also pretty hot.

And Patrik Laine is now in elite company, he's tied Gretzky for 3rd most goals as a teen. Interestingly that's not the 1st most, Jimmy Carson (92) and Dale Hawerchuck (85) both have more than Laine who currently has 76, but what Laine is doing is impressive since it's being done in a lower scoring era.

If the season ended today draft order (subject to lottery of course) would be:

Arizona
Buffalo
Ottawa
Vancouver
Montreal
Detroit
Edmonton
Rangers
Chicago
Islanders
Carolina
Islanders (from Calgary)
Columbus
Philly (from St Louis)
Anaheim

A lot of movement will take place in that group, plus the lottery will shuffle things, but just my view it's a strong top of the draft.

Current playoff matchups would be:

East
TAM vs CBJ
BOS vs TOR
PIT vs NJD
WAS vs PHI

still alive: FLA, CAR

West
LVG vs DAL
SJS vs ANA
NSH vs COL
WIN vs MIN

Still alive: LAK, CAL, STL

some good matchups
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I never really paid attention to the lottery before  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 9:24 am : link
which I guess is a good thing.

So tell me if I have this right.

The top 3 picks are picked out of ping pong balls, and every team who misses the playoffs has a shot at them, and then after that, the teams pick in the reverse order they finish, so if that's right then if the Canadiens (for example) finish 5th worst, then the worst they could pick would be 8th if none of the teams worse than them get the top 3 picks?

Is that right or is it all a lottery to determine 1 - 15?

The lottery just decides the top 3  
Kyle in NY : 4/5/2018 9:27 am : link
after that it's in reverse order. So if the Rangers finish 10th the only spots they could pick in are 10 or lower, or in the top 3.

So when the lottery is happening and they get to the spot your team is supposed to be in, and they don't come up, you'll know you've hit it big and are moving into at least the top 3
So yeah  
Kyle in NY : 4/5/2018 9:28 am : link
you could drop as many as 3 spots, stay where you are, or move into the top 3
Thanks Kyle  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 9:38 am : link

IMO if you my team misses out on Dahlin, just stay in the top 8 or so, even top 10 is good this year.

But the more I see of Dahlin the more I agree, he's McDavid on D, he's Bobby Orr or Erik Karlsson.

Been saying this seems like a very good top 8  
Kyle in NY : 4/5/2018 9:40 am : link
Hence why the Rangers have got to lose out.

Montreal tanked very well, credit where it's due
Neither the Knicks nor the Rangers have had any lottery luck  
Greg from LI : 4/5/2018 9:41 am : link
since Ewing in 1985. It's about time that changed.
RE: Been saying this seems like a very good top 8  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 9:47 am : link
In comment 13901114 Kyle in NY said:
Quote:
Hence why the Rangers have got to lose out.

Montreal tanked very well, credit where it's due


well instead of trading their players they had injuries (Weber Pacioretty, Danault, Price missed 37 games), so it was easier for the Habs.

If MTL make it to the top 3 or stays at 5 they'll get a great prospect (not a McDavid) but as good a player at the top of the draft outside of McDavid in the past decade IMO.

Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Zadina - any of them I'd be thrilled - the D's (Boqvist, Hughes, Dobson, etc.), so many options even if they miss Dahlin.

If the Canadiens (or anyone) somehow get lucky and win the lottery, and they don't take Dahlin, it would be grounds for switching teams.

RE: John Tavares  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 10:03 am : link
In comment 13901076 KWhite2250 said:
Quote:
Last home game as an islander tonight!!! Great times


See if he picks up the puck out of the net after the buzzer like Karlsson did.

RE: John Tavares  
Metnut : 4/5/2018 10:15 am : link
In comment 13901076 KWhite2250 said:
Quote:
Last home game as an islander tonight!!! Great times


I'm starting to really think that he's leaving. It's incredibly depressing and embarrassing how much this front office and coaching staff have blown it all. A post-Tavares future for the Islanders with a new front office isn't completely hopeless but I don't think I'm ready to really think deeply about it yet.
I'll maintain that Tkachuk is a bit overrated  
Kyle in NY : 4/5/2018 10:15 am : link
and if someone is taking him in the top 4, we should all welcome that as it means it's moving a potentially better player down a slot to the Rangers and maybe Montreal.

Don't get me wrong, he's a good prospect. If the Rangers stayed at 10 and got him there I'd be happy. But his numbers this season really were underwhelming for someone being hyped as a potential top 3 pick.

8 goals 23 assists in 40 games. I recognize he's at college earlier than most as he hasn't even been drafted yet. But Eichel put up 26 goals and 45 assists in the same scenario, at the same school. Now Eichel is a generational player. Not expecting Tkachuk to match that. But maybe split the difference if we're going to be hyping him up so much.

I think the last name is carrying him just a bit.
Completely different players (Eichel and Tkachuk)  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 10:26 am : link
as you say.

Tkachuk, while immensely skilled, is more a cycle/physical player.

I've said before it may seem lazy, but his father is a good comparison (score 50 goals and rack up 200 PIMS type). Maybe even a bigger Marchand.

He was captain of the USNTDP as the 2nd youngest player on it - and they went on to win gold in the world juniors.

He's the 2nd youngest player in NCAA hockey.

he's 6'3 200 pounds as a 18 year old.

I would love Tkachuk on the Canadiens and feel like teams who pass him over will look back and say "our team is missing a player like Tkachuk"

combinations of skill and physicality are throwbacks, true rare breeds in this era.

Peter Forsberg comes to mind too.

Definitely recognize the positives he brings  
Kyle in NY : 4/5/2018 10:39 am : link
Just questioning the upside. 54 points in his second year with the USDP, his brother put up 95 at the same age on that team.

Now if he's a 50 point NHL player that plays a physical game and is a potential future captain, that's a very valuable piece. But if you're picking 4th, I think you might be looking for just a bit more.

I think there could be 4 or 5 first pair defensemen available in the top 10. I'm more intrigued by those guys if I'm in the top 6 or 7

Disclaimer: I've just been doing some cursory research since the Rangers sold off. Not proclaiming to be some super scout breaking down each game for these kids. So I recognize I may be talking out of my ass here.

I'm no scout either  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 10:49 am : link
my opinion comes solely from watching these guys play when I can. I saw most of these draft prospects over the past few years all the way back to U16 tourneys.

these are against players their own age, and sometimes I think that's a better gauge than NCAA or even juniors for some players.

Tkachuk dominated when I saw him. Clearly.

I'd take Dahlin, Zadina and Svechnikov (in either order) and then Tkachuk before the other D.

If the other D (Boqvist and Hughes really) had Dahlin's size I might adjust, but for now that's my top 4.

Bouchard and Dobson are different, they're prototypical D (from a size standpoint), and I like Boqvist and Hughes, but it's hard for me as a non-scout to know if they're more Charlie McAvoy or more Torrey Krug. I hate to use Bruins comps so much, but it's easy to do, but I really hate Torrey Krug's game while it's easy to admit he's a smooth skater and offensively skilled (a true asset on the PP), but lacks defensively and physically.



The defensemen after Dahlin  
Kyle in NY : 4/5/2018 11:01 am : link
really are an interesting group. Like you said, a mix of styles. Two guys on the small side in Hughes and Boqvist, dynamic skaters with tremendous offensive upside. And then two that fit that prototype in Bouchard and Dobson.

I'd like to get a better feel for them leading up to the draft. I'm guessing they should be in range for NYR
Chicago won in STL tonight  
MetsAreBack : 4/5/2018 11:22 am : link
we simply have to take a regulation loss tonight. Have to.

If we win we lock up #10.

If we lose in regulation, we could easily move up to 8th and Edmonton is a fucking disgrace how bad they've played down the stretch (1 point in 5 games... i'm jealous at their execution of the Tank), but maybe just maybe they can grab two home wins to end their season (which better end with a Firing of Chiarelli)
With a loss tonight of any type  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 12:30 pm : link
MTL clinches a bottom 5 finish.

and they finish up Saturday @TOR, so hopefully the Leafs have something to play for and puts out a decent lineup.

MTL has an outside shot at catching OTT for 2nd worst.
Decent article  
pjcas18 : 4/5/2018 3:40 pm : link
on the Hughes family - Quinn is in this draft and his brother Jack is the favorite right now to go #1 in 2019 and they have a younger brother Luke who is a couple years away form being draft eligible.

I do think the Tkachuk's will have 3 first round players if you count Keith since Matthew and Brady will both be 1st round. In this case though, maybe they mean just the kids, not the parent.
Meet the Hughes Brothers - ( New Window )
.  
arcarsenal : 4/5/2018 9:34 pm : link
LOL, another loss to the Isles.

Doesn't matter at all but the complete ownership that team has had over the Rangers recently is staggering.

I believe that is now 10 times in the last 11 tries they've beaten us.
RE: .  
Davisian : 4/5/2018 9:37 pm : link
In comment 13902226 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
LOL, another loss to the Isles.

Doesn't matter at all but the complete ownership that team has had over the Rangers recently is staggering.

I believe that is now 10 times in the last 11 tries they've beaten us.


And the Rangers needed those losses, so even by winning it's lolisles

suck it, Fish

.  
arcarsenal : 4/5/2018 9:44 pm : link
This year, yes - absolutely.

They've been kicking our asses for a while now, though.

It'll be different next year when Tavares is a Ranger.

Also, hi Davidson!
RE: .  
Davisian : 4/5/2018 10:10 pm : link
In comment 13902236 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
This year, yes - absolutely.

They've been kicking our asses for a while now, though.

It'll be different next year when Tavares is a Ranger.

Also, hi Davidson!



hey buddy, how you?

I'm just chillin, reppin my launch angle..

RE: RE: .  
arcarsenal : 4/5/2018 10:20 pm : link
In comment 13902260 Davisian said:
Quote:
In comment 13902236 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


This year, yes - absolutely.

They've been kicking our asses for a while now, though.

It'll be different next year when Tavares is a Ranger.

Also, hi Davidson!




hey buddy, how you?

I'm just chillin, reppin my launch angle..


You know, just keeping my fuckin' launch angle on point as always. Showing the wimmins what exit velocity is really like.
RE: RE: RE: .  
Davisian : 4/5/2018 10:27 pm : link
In comment 13902265 arcarsenal said:
Quote:
In comment 13902260 Davisian said:


Quote:


In comment 13902236 arcarsenal said:


Quote:


This year, yes - absolutely.

They've been kicking our asses for a while now, though.

It'll be different next year when Tavares is a Ranger.

Also, hi Davidson!




hey buddy, how you?

I'm just chillin, reppin my launch angle..




You know, just keeping my fuckin' launch angle on point as always. Showing the wimmins what exit velocity is really like.


Statcast pimps gotta statcast..

Clutch loss last night  
Kyle in NY : 4/6/2018 8:57 am : link
7th in the lottery is now realistic
So we can finish as high as 7 and as low as 10?  
figgy2989 : 4/6/2018 9:16 am : link
Is that right?
Correct  
Kyle in NY : 4/6/2018 9:16 am : link
.
Awful win for MTL  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 9:25 am : link
last night, all they needed was to lose even in OT and it would have been fine.

Now with a regulation W against a Leafs team with nothing to play for they can finish outside the top 5.
Need chicago and Edmonton  
Carl in CT : 4/6/2018 9:52 am : link
To help us out.
I need an EDM  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 9:59 am : link
loss, or at worst an OT win (if MTL beats TOR).

I also need the Islanders to lose to DET.

and then best case ARI beats ANA

and if these things happens:

1. MTL lose to TOR
2. ARI beats ANA

MTL finishes 3rd worst.

if MTL wins then I need:

VAN and DET to at least get 1 point then it comes down to tiebreakers.
Rangers are going to finish 7th, but 8, 9, and 10 will win the lottery  
BrettNYG10 : 4/6/2018 11:37 am : link
Picks.

Or maybe just 8 and 9 will, and the Flames will be the third team to win.
That was terrific results for once last night  
MetsAreBack : 4/6/2018 11:44 am : link
now these fuckstains better not blow this on Saturday. While it would be fun on some level to KO Philly from a playoff berth, it would also take 2 Florida victories combined by a Philly regulation loss for it to happen, and that's a long shot.

Thankfully, Florida won last night and keeps the pressure on Philly who must collect a point saturday afternoon to clinch a postseason berth.

So lose in regulation and hope Chicago can scratch out two points in its last two games and Edmonton can take care of Vancouver at home and we're looking at 7th pick - which also improves our odds of landing in the top 3 to 20.5% from 16% currently.

Whatever you do ... do not win Saturday. That could push us back to 10th which only has 11% odds.
and fyi  
MetsAreBack : 4/6/2018 11:55 am : link
we'll "win" the tiebreaker against Chicago (less ROW, went 0-2 head to head).. so we just need them to get one more point.

Would lose it to Edmonton if they OTL and we lose - same ROW, went 2-0 vs them... so we'll need them to beat Vancouver at home.

Its so much fun rooting for all my teams draft positions the past year instead of looking forward to playoffs... but hey, Mets are 5-1 --
Unrelated  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 12:32 pm : link
but interesting, Notre Dame beats Michigan to advance to the NCAA hockey finals vs Minnesota Duluth tomorrow night at 7:30.

This would be incredible  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 4:23 pm : link
Quote:

Evan Sporer
‏ @ev_sporer

The NHL just announced theres a scenario in which the Flyers and Panthers would have to play a tie-breaking game. Its complicated, and 100% what everyone should be rooting for:


Hell no I'm not rooting for that  
Greg from LI : 4/6/2018 4:25 pm : link
Draft position uber alles
Hank said he remembers  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 4:38 pm : link
2009 - 2010 when the Flyers beat the Rangers on the last day of the season to knock the Rangers out of the playoffs and he wants revenge. (or something like that)

Clearly he's not on board with the tankathon.
Hank also said the other day  
MetsAreBack : 4/6/2018 4:43 pm : link
he understands the youth movement "late this year" but that next year the franchise needs to get back to winning.

I get it - an athlete should always try hard, but if he's saying these things to try and get fans/media to pressure Gorton to win now... then I love you Hank .... but move the fuck on and waive your NMC. This team isnt even close... not even close... to contending again.

I posted stats the other day, maybe above on this thread, that even over the last month when our record isnt that bad... this teams metrics are absolutely brutal.

If we're quiet this offseason, and we should be, I'm very confident we can land a top 3 pick next summer. This team right now is.. really, really.. bad. Its just a damn fuckin' shame we won so many fluke games throughout the season, and especially the last month while being pinned in our own end for 60%+ of those games.

Went 4-0 against Carolina despite them DOUBLING our shot totals in those games. Hank would actually be a nice fit for them, by the way. With adequate goaltending let alone Hank level - Carolina is easily a playoff team.
And on the Flyers-Panthers tie  
MetsAreBack : 4/6/2018 4:44 pm : link
hell the fuck no. Just win in regulation tomorrow and wrap this up, Philly.

Florida already has to play a makeup game sunday night at like 9pm on the road in Boston for a snowstorm a few months back... they'd have nothing in the tank for a 1 game playoff anyway.
Jack Hughes  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 4:49 pm : link
is supposed to be Matthews-esque.

not Dahlin/McDavid class from what I've heard so far, I have not seen him much yet to have my own opinion, but nonetheless he's the #1 prospect right now for 2019.

it's hard to tank in hockey. the players and coaches won't do it, so you just have to hope the opponent has something to play for and let's face it if you're in this position you haven't been a good team all year, so tanking shouldn't be required.

but the players, even if they embrace a rebuild, won't lay down.

I read about him the other day  
MetsAreBack : 4/6/2018 5:11 pm : link
his numbers are sick and he's young... but i've also read he's 5' 10" and 155 pounds soaking wet.

Are we talking upside of Matthews or of Goudreau here? (Goudreau isnt a bad consolation prize).

Hey- if we can lose in reg saturday and get help from Chicago and Edmonton we've got a 21% shot at landing in the top 3... Dolan's never had any lottery luck at all, maybe he's due?? So you're saying there's a chance!!
He's 16 years old  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 5:32 pm : link
I read that Mathew Barzal grew 2 inches from the first central scouting ranking to the draft. Hughes is already listed at 5' 10".

if he's Gaudreau or Matthews it's a huge win. Gaudreau is the most creative player in the league and Matthews is a superstar center.

You should be able to see Hughes if you want to form your own opinion later this month in the U18 WJC. It starts 4/19. He's the youngest player on the USA team and probably the youngest in the whole tournament or close to it.

Also notable on team USA in this tournament:

Adam Samuelsson - Ulf's son (Kjell's son is also in this upcoming draft)

Mattias Samuelsson - Kjell's son

Oliver Wahlstrom - top 10 - 12 pick in this upcoming draft - Harvard commit though


Alex Turcotte - 2019 draft prospect

and more from non-US teams like maybe Svechnikov, Zadina, Dahlin - all eligible, not sure if they're all playing.
This is insane  
pjcas18 : 4/6/2018 6:24 pm : link
Panthers fans "so far" have committed to donating over $350k to Hank's foundation if the Rangers beat the Flyers Saturday.

Quote:

BarDown
‏Verified account @BarDown
7m7 minutes ago

.@FlaPanthers fans are pledging to donate a ton of money to #Lundqvist's foundation (@HLundqvistFDN) if the @NYRangers beat the @NHLFlyers. MORE @ https://www.bardown.com/1.1049388

Started by @TaylorCraig

Link - ( New Window )
RE: Rangers with a chance to get to 8th  
baadbill : 4/6/2018 7:12 pm : link
In comment 13901072 Kyle in NY said:
Quote:
....
I haven't been pushing the tank as hard as others....


Maybe if we all truly believe and "push the tank", we can actually influence the outcome of tomorrow's game!!!
Fuck off Florida losers  
Greg from LI : 4/6/2018 7:32 pm : link
.
First of all that's a load of shit  
MetsAreBack : 4/7/2018 11:14 am : link
No Florida panthers fan or fans cares enough about hockey to donate $350k. Second they still have to win two games including up in Boston tomorrow who may be playing for a one seed and avoid Toronto in round 1 even if philly loses in regulation so nobody is wasting their money like that.

Most of their home games this year before the spring break crowd came were <5000. There's zero fan base.

So That story has got to be some trumped up bullshit or marketing ploy by viola or whatever the owners name is.

RE: RE: Rangers with a chance to get to 8th  
Kyle in NY : 4/7/2018 12:20 pm : link
In comment 13903215 baadbill said:
Quote:
In comment 13901072 Kyle in NY said:


Quote:


....
I haven't been pushing the tank as hard as others....



Maybe if we all truly believe and "push the tank", we can actually influence the outcome of tomorrow's game!!!


Cool post. Tell us again about how youre sitting back enjoying this all because its out of your hands! Youve only repeated it 25 times by now
Getting the job done  
Kyle in NY : 4/7/2018 4:53 pm : link
But why subject Hank to this nonsense?
RE: Getting the job done  
pjcas18 : 4/7/2018 4:59 pm : link
In comment 13904346 Kyle in NY said:
Quote:
But why subject Hank to this nonsense?


yeah, there goes the donation to Hank's foundation, LOL, if it was even real.
Did what we could  
MetsAreBack : 4/7/2018 5:38 pm : link
But hawks and oilers need to show some pride tonight. Hopefully Winnipeg rests everybody and the canucks are spent from their home finale / Sedin twins sendoff.

I expect the hawks to lose in winnipeg - but if Edmonton tanks at home to lowly Vancouver I will be very annoyed.
That damn western Canada trip  
MetsAreBack : 4/7/2018 5:40 pm : link
With the 95% save percentage and 15% shooting percentage ... cost us dearly. Maybe Dolan will get some lottery luck for once but as with the knicks it's more likely someone behind us jumps up into top 3 and pushes us back
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