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Josh Allen- Why does no one like him

GMAN4LIFE : 3/19/2018 9:55 am
I have only read about the likes of Darnold, and Rosen but i might be the only one impressed more with Allen.

He has the mechanics to sling it and great poise behind the pocket.


Why am i not seeing?
Are you new to BBI?  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 9:57 am : link
...
Disagree  
Bold Ruler : Mod : 3/19/2018 9:57 am : link
He very well may go #1.
Didn't face top competition in college  
JonC : 3/19/2018 9:58 am : link
makes it more difficult to project his readiness for the NFL, and he's been followed by questions of passing accuracy, which is huge for a pro QB.
everyone takes the extreme with Allen  
UConn4523 : 3/19/2018 9:59 am : link
especially on the negative which was his completion % in college. Very valid point, but I suspect there's many reasons for the low % so pinpointing it all on him is probably a bit unfair.

I wouldn't take him #1 or #2 over the more polished and better two players (Darnold/Rosen) but he's an intriguing 3rd option. I know everyone says you can't fall in love with his arm, but on a cold, windy winter day he's going to have a serious advantage. The rest is stuff I couldn't possible being to dissect - if a coach thinks his issues are correctable, go for it.
SYNAPSE!  
Brown Recluse : 3/19/2018 9:59 am : link
.
I am really  
TommyWiseau : 3/19/2018 10:01 am : link
intrigued about his potential but a little scared because of the accuracy issues as well as him being so raw. He could very well be the best QB in this draft but he also has the highesy chance of being s bust. If the Giants take him at 2 I would be a little worried but excited
RE: Are you new to BBI?  
GMAN4LIFE : 3/19/2018 10:03 am : link
In comment 13873650 bw in dc said:
Quote:
...


thanks for your input
Allen can sling it with just about anyone  
Mike in NY : 3/19/2018 10:04 am : link
The problem is his accuracy, especially under pressure, leaves a lot to be desired. On the move his footwork and vision really suffers. I would also like to see him throw better on shorter passes (too much velocity, not enough touch). He also needs to play under better control. He thinks he can fit it into any window. While I like the competitiveness, at the NFL level sometimes you need to know when it is just better to throw it away and live to play another down. Allen's flaws are completely correctable with the right NFL coaching, but I think he is further away than you would want if you were taking a QB early in the first round so that carries a lot of risk when you have an incumbent QB in Eli Manning who may only have 1-2 years left.
I think he goes #1  
GiantsLaw : 3/19/2018 10:04 am : link
and acquiring Taylor allows the Browns to give him time to develop.
I’ve said it before  
GoDeep13 : 3/19/2018 10:05 am : link
Allen is the only QB I’m taking at 2. Kid is a box of untapped potential. He’s had a QB coach for all of 2 months and looks like a totally different QB with the same dominant talent. His footwork has gotten crisper and cleaner from the Central Michigan game, to the Senior Bowl, to the Combine.

He’s a hard working form boy from a small town who’s had to prove himself at every level. He’s a fierce competitor and an “aw shucks” kid at the same time. He checks every box in the physical capabilities department. And he’s extremely coachable.

There is a lot there that says “Franchise QB”. People are too hung up by the completion percentage if you ask me.
Major accuracy issues at Senior Bowl practice.  
Racer : 3/19/2018 10:05 am : link
Got it done in the game, but he is not close to being a year-1 starter according to many that scout(ed) for a living.
Go to  
NYFG712 : 3/19/2018 10:06 am : link
DraftJoshAllen.com

they make some great points.
Despite all his physical gifts, his performance hasn't been all that  
Greg from LI : 3/19/2018 10:06 am : link
good.
Allens head coach was also Wentzs at NDSU  
Chip : 3/19/2018 10:09 am : link
Darnold is a turnover machine and Rosen has had concussions and a shoulder. Flip a coin its a gamble whoever you pick. Barkley Chubb and Nelson will be rated higher but are not QBs. lets just get to the draft asap
He is my favorite  
rasbutant : 3/19/2018 10:11 am : link
But I’m no scout.

I like the way he moves in the pocket. I like the way he handles himself on and off the field. The arm. The size. The way he is able to break tackles and shed off defenders. When he scrambles he has speed and toughness. And I like the competitiveness to not give up on a play. Also. His receivers dropped a lot of passes and I never once saw him have poor body language.
Watch a few Wyoming games (if possible)  
widmerseyebrow : 3/19/2018 10:13 am : link
He's not good at all.
I like Allen  
Jay on the Island : 3/19/2018 10:13 am : link
But the truth is that he is the biggest boom or bust QB prospect in year's. He has the chance to be a HOF QB but he has an equal shot at being the next Jake Locker.

His arm strength, size, and mobility are all incredible but his accuracy is a legit concern. I would prefer Rosen at 2 but if the Giants do take Allen I won't be upset because that would mean that Shurmur is convinced that his accuracy issues are related to mechanical issues that can be corrected. The Giants are the ideal spot for Allen as he has the benefit of sitting behind Eli for at least a year.

Cleveland wise brought in a veteran stopgap in Taylor but if they take Allen and Taylor struggles they could be forced to play Allen earlier than expected. Hue Jackson was a fool for rushing Kizer last year and I don't think he would be able to resist playing his shiny new toy at the first sign of struggle.
I love Allen...  
Chris684 : 3/19/2018 10:14 am : link
Accuracy can be improved.

If physical gifts are matched with a strong work ethic, smarts and solid character, flaws such as inaccuracy can be a blip on the radar.

I think he will turn out to be the best of his class.
because he can't hit the side of a barn??  
Victor in CT : 3/19/2018 10:16 am : link
......
RE: I love Allen...  
Greg from LI : 3/19/2018 10:17 am : link
In comment 13873703 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Accuracy can be improved.


Very rarely is that true
A lot of people like him..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/19/2018 10:18 am : link
but the question becomes do you like him enough at #2?

He's got significant flaws, including the low completion % that is often a precursor to how a player makes the transition to the NFL.
He's not accurate.  
Heisenberg : 3/19/2018 10:20 am : link
Physical tools are great but ability to run a pro style offense is up in the air.

And I don't think it's reasonable to expect Allen to become more accurate.
Reason why people do not like him  
Pep22 : 3/19/2018 10:20 am : link
Comes down to his Comp % = 56. Not good. But people are ignoring the following:

1 his adjusted Comp % = 71 (adjusted for drops given he receivers were shit).

2 poor line resulted in him being flushed from the pocket frequently

3 the fact that he showed good accuracy and great response to coaching at both the Sr Bowl and the combine

RE: I love Allen...  
TyreeHelmet : 3/19/2018 10:22 am : link
In comment 13873703 Chris684 said:
Quote:
Accuracy can be improved.

If physical gifts are matched with a strong work ethic, smarts and solid character, flaws such as inaccuracy can be a blip on the radar.

I think he will turn out to be the best of his class.


It is very rare for accuracy to improve.
Classic  
AcidTest : 3/19/2018 10:24 am : link
"high ceiling," "low floor" player. Accuracy issues like his typically don't improve when QBs enter the NFL. They tend to get worse in fact because NFL throwing windows are obviously smaller than those in college.
56.2  
Scyber : 3/19/2018 10:24 am : link
Very few (if any?) QBs that have had that low of a completion % in college have been successful in the pros.
Accuracy % is just a number  
Coach Red Beaulieu : 3/19/2018 10:24 am : link
That can be improved simply by different play calls. Having said that, obviously the Giants have to dig deeper and also have to figure out his noggin and intangibles. Is he JaMarcus Russell or John Elway?
Anticipation  
firedbytheboss : 3/19/2018 10:27 am : link
when you compare Allen to Rosen and to a lesser extent Mayfield he fails to measure up in a few areas but maybe the most important area is anticipation.

When you watch Rosen throw he naturally throws to receivers before the break. It is almost instinct for him. It is very hard to teach this. Allen does not hit his receivers with anticipation. He generally needs to see his receivers make the break and get open. This flaw is covered up a little because he has such a powerful arm. But in the NFL the power arm will help him less. A successful pocket passer needs to hit receivers with anticipation in tight windows.

He is a classic case of a see it-throw it QB. Whereas Rosen does not have to see the WR get open, he throws to where the receiver will be prior to the break.

Furthermore the tendency to power the ball to make up for a lack of anticipation will lead to balls being thrown too hard.

This is a serious flaw in Allen's game. It is a flaw that Bortles has, RG3, even to some extent Cam Newton. Cam relies on transcendent athleticism to make up for his poor pocket anticipation.

Meanwhile, Rosen has plenty enough arm to succeed in the NFL. I advise you to see the 65 yard bomb he threw to Cal Ridley at the combine or his final throw at his pro day. An NFL QB doesn't need much more than that to succeed. Seeign the field and hitting your receivers with accuracy before the break is so much more important than arm strength.
RE: Anticipation  
AcidTest : 3/19/2018 10:30 am : link
In comment 13873759 firedbytheboss said:
Quote:
when you compare Allen to Rosen and to a lesser extent Mayfield he fails to measure up in a few areas but maybe the most important area is anticipation.

When you watch Rosen throw he naturally throws to receivers before the break. It is almost instinct for him. It is very hard to teach this. Allen does not hit his receivers with anticipation. He generally needs to see his receivers make the break and get open. This flaw is covered up a little because he has such a powerful arm. But in the NFL the power arm will help him less. A successful pocket passer needs to hit receivers with anticipation in tight windows.

He is a classic case of a see it-throw it QB. Whereas Rosen does not have to see the WR get open, he throws to where the receiver will be prior to the break.

Furthermore the tendency to power the ball to make up for a lack of anticipation will lead to balls being thrown too hard.

This is a serious flaw in Allen's game. It is a flaw that Bortles has, RG3, even to some extent Cam Newton. Cam relies on transcendent athleticism to make up for his poor pocket anticipation.

Meanwhile, Rosen has plenty enough arm to succeed in the NFL. I advise you to see the 65 yard bomb he threw to Cal Ridley at the combine or his final throw at his pro day. An NFL QB doesn't need much more than that to succeed. Seeign the field and hitting your receivers with accuracy before the break is so much more important than arm strength.


Agreed.


Link - ( New Window )
RE: Reason why people do not like him  
Big Rick in FL : 3/19/2018 10:34 am : link
In comment 13873730 Pep22 said:
Quote:
Comes down to his Comp % = 56. Not good. But people are ignoring the following:

1 his adjusted Comp % = 71 (adjusted for drops given he receivers were shit).

2 poor line resulted in him being flushed from the pocket frequently

3 the fact that he showed good accuracy and great response to coaching at both the Sr Bowl and the combine


This 71% number is fake news. His adjusted completion % is 65.7%. Which is 86th in the nation among draft eligible QBs.

The Senior Bowl game is a joke. They aren't even allowed to play defense. The Senior Bowl practices are what you need to look at. He was inconsistent at best.
RE: RE: Are you new to BBI?  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 10:41 am : link
In comment 13873671 GMAN4LIFE said:
Quote:
In comment 13873650 bw in dc said:


Quote:


...



thanks for your input


Sorry, I really didn't mean to be crass. This topic has been kicked around daily. So I was actually actually curious if you were new since there is so much content on this...

The majority of the people anti-Allen cite accuracy, playing at Wyoming, not playing well in big games, etc as reasons why he is not the one we should consider at QB.

I think there are legitimate reasons for all of this criticism. For me, he looks like the classic case of a late bloomer (only had one D1 offer) who has these great god given throwing skills. And if he gets some more seasoning, he has the most upside.

A lot of people..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/19/2018 10:42 am : link
keep saying that accuracy can be improved, but it rarely has in recent years. You have to go back to Favre to find a QB with a deficient completion % to have major success in the NFL.

That's why people look at it as a red flag. If you have accuracy issues in college, they are compounded at the next level.

By the way - people also keep saying Allen's receivers were shit, but I've seen several sources cite that he actually had less drops than all the top QB's than one.
No way would I take Allen  
Bluesbreaker : 3/19/2018 10:48 am : link
over Rosen ....The accuracy issue is HUGE your either accurate or your not it's called inconsistent you can help with foot work and mechanics but your still gonna throw the
ball the same way .
Rosen reminds me of Philip Rivers with slightly better wheels Rosen can thread a needle .
RE: RE: RE: Are you new to BBI?  
chuckydee9 : 3/19/2018 10:48 am : link
In comment 13873809 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 13873671 GMAN4LIFE said:


Quote:


In comment 13873650 bw in dc said:


Quote:


...



thanks for your input



Sorry, I really didn't mean to be crass. This topic has been kicked around daily. So I was actually actually curious if you were new since there is so much content on this...

The majority of the people anti-Allen cite accuracy, playing at Wyoming, not playing well in big games, etc as reasons why he is not the one we should consider at QB.

I think there are legitimate reasons for all of this criticism. For me, he looks like the classic case of a late bloomer (only had one D1 offer) who has these great god given throwing skills. And if he gets some more seasoning, he has the most upside.


Don't use real facts to argue with the people who saw him throw in his shorts against no defense.. clearly he threw the ball 70 yards on the dot.. he is going to be the best..
RE: RE: Reason why people do not like him  
chuckydee9 : 3/19/2018 10:50 am : link
In comment 13873782 Big Rick in FL said:
Quote:
In comment 13873730 Pep22 said:


Quote:


Comes down to his Comp % = 56. Not good. But people are ignoring the following:

1 his adjusted Comp % = 71 (adjusted for drops given he receivers were shit).

2 poor line resulted in him being flushed from the pocket frequently

3 the fact that he showed good accuracy and great response to coaching at both the Sr Bowl and the combine




This 71% number is fake news. His adjusted completion % is 65.7%. Which is 86th in the nation among draft eligible QBs.

The Senior Bowl game is a joke. They aren't even allowed to play defense. The Senior Bowl practices are what you need to look at. He was inconsistent at best.


My last comment was meant to quote this not the one that I really posted..
I'd love for the Giants to take a chance only Allen  
GiantFilthy : 3/19/2018 10:52 am : link
simply due to who our head coach is and that we know whoever comes in will sit on the bench behind Eli for a bit.
Acuracy...  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 10:53 am : link
Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.
RE: Acuracy...  
MojoEd : 3/19/2018 10:59 am : link
In comment 13873858 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.

From the google machine:
Bledsoe 54.3%
Kelly 55.6%
Let's see...  
GiantsAlwaysAndForever : 3/19/2018 11:00 am : link
- He threw under 57% completion rate in Division 1AA.
- He threw under 56% completion rate at Wyoming after transferring.
- The "Bad Supporting Cast" argument is a myth. His WRs dropped 12 passes all year, Rosen's dropped 36, Mayfield's dropped 25 (per PFF)
- Everyone had a bad offensive line in this class besides Mayfield.
- In 2017, Allen had just four games where he threw for more than two touchdown passes and they came against teams with a combined 9-37 record -- Texas State, New Mexico, Central Michigan, and Gardner-Webb. If you remove those four games against absolutely inferior competition, Allen completed just 53.3 percent of his pass attempts for 877 yards with four touchdowns and six interceptions in seven games. He averaged just 125 passing yards per game against these teams. If you decide to include those four games, the most yards he passed for in any single game was 208.

Eye test:
- Allen is quick to bail from the pocket at the sign of ANY PRESSURE. Happy feet is a term some use for this. It is VERY difficult to fix at the next level and unlikely to be fixed.
- Allen has issues with accuracy that are due to his mechanics and footwork - again VERY hard to fix. Think of any time you've tried to use a new serve in tennis or "fix/change" your basketball shot. No magic wand available here.
Like I said..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/19/2018 11:01 am : link
above - you have to go back a few decades to find guys.

Find somebody in the 2000's or later who had a completion % at 56% in college who became an excellent pro.
Allen  
Pep22 : 3/19/2018 11:02 am : link
I get not taking him over Rosen. Rosen is one of the more NFL ready guys you'll ever see.

I don't see why people would opt for Darnold over Allen though. Darnold's selling point right now is the fact that he is a toolsy player that is very moldable and is regarded as a great kid who is a sponge. You can say the same bout Allen and except his tools far exceed Darnold.
RE: Reason why people do not like him  
Section331 : 3/19/2018 11:02 am : link
In comment 13873730 Pep22 said:
Quote:
Comes down to his Comp % = 56. Not good. But people are ignoring the following:

1 his adjusted Comp % = 71 (adjusted for drops given he receivers were shit).

2 poor line resulted in him being flushed from the pocket frequently

3 the fact that he showed good accuracy and great response to coaching at both the Sr Bowl and the combine


OK, I can understand pointing out that his WR's and OL were shit this past season, but 2 years ago, he had 2 all-conference OL, one WR and one RB, and his completion % was identical. Can we drop this talking point? It's not like other QB's didn't have shitty talent around him.
RE: RE: Acuracy...  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 11:04 am : link
In comment 13873878 MojoEd said:
Quote:
In comment 13873858 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.


From the google machine:
Bledsoe 54.3%
Kelly 55.6%


I looked it up the other day. But it's so taxing to open another tab, open Google, and type in what I want... ;)
RE: Acuracy...  
Victor in CT : 3/19/2018 11:11 am : link
In comment 13873858 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.


different era, different game. 55% was pretty good back then. Defense was still allowed to compete.
RE: Allen  
Greg from LI : 3/19/2018 11:12 am : link
In comment 13873891 Pep22 said:
Quote:
I get not taking him over Rosen. Rosen is one of the more NFL ready guys you'll ever see.

I don't see why people would opt for Darnold over Allen though. Darnold's selling point right now is the fact that he is a toolsy player that is very moldable and is regarded as a great kid who is a sponge. You can say the same bout Allen and except his tools far exceed Darnold.


Well, let's see - playing against a much, much higher level of competition, Darnold completed 65% of his passes with a 57/22 TD/INT ratio. Allen completed 56% of his with a 44/21 ratio against very weak competition. You don't see why people would find Darnold more appealing?

Hell, a lot of people like to toss comparisons to Roethlisberger around for Allen. BR's numbers from Miami (OH) blow Allen's away too - 65.5% completions, 83/39 ratio.
Accuracy isn't the issue for me  
RobCarpenter : 3/19/2018 11:23 am : link
It's his decision making, particularly with respect to how he doesn't seem to do the pre-snap reads he needs to do.

Someone else posted this analysis on BBI (see youtube link below) - and note especially what Allen does at about the 10:30 mark of this video.
Link - ( New Window )
I like  
Spyder : 3/19/2018 11:23 am : link
quite a lot about Allen.

His size and athletic ability remind me of Big Ben. I've heard some say he has the best arm since Elway. He has not had a QB coach, and would be coming to a team with a QB specialist head coach, another in Mike Shula, and a mentor with Eli, plus built in competition with Webb.

I also really like the fact he has proven he can play in cold weather. Rosen and Darnold have yet to prove they can play in bad weather. Yeah, perhaps not an issue, since Eli probably did not play many cold weather games in college either, but it is surely a factor in evaluating these guys who played in southern California.
I think lots of people here, myself included,  
barens : 3/19/2018 11:23 am : link
have watched Allen play, since he was hyped up before the college football season. And watching him play live left a lot to be desired. Granted, it doesn't tell the entire story, but the teams he was facing were adequate at best, and he didn't do anything at all to raise the level of his teams play.

And given that, people who haven't seen him play love to compare him to Carson Wentz.
RE: RE: Allen  
Pep22 : 3/19/2018 11:27 am : link
In comment 13873918 Greg from LI said:
Quote:
In comment 13873891 Pep22 said:


Quote:


I get not taking him over Rosen. Rosen is one of the more NFL ready guys you'll ever see.

I don't see why people would opt for Darnold over Allen though. Darnold's selling point right now is the fact that he is a toolsy player that is very moldable and is regarded as a great kid who is a sponge. You can say the same bout Allen and except his tools far exceed Darnold.



Well, let's see - playing against a much, much higher level of competition, Darnold completed 65% of his passes with a 57/22 TD/INT ratio. Allen completed 56% of his with a 44/21 ratio against very weak competition. You don't see why people would find Darnold more appealing?

Hell, a lot of people like to toss comparisons to Roethlisberger around for Allen. BR's numbers from Miami (OH) blow Allen's away too - 65.5% completions, 83/39 ratio.


And playing with a much, much higher level.
RE: RE: RE: Allen  
Section331 : 3/19/2018 11:34 am : link
In comment 13873961 Pep22 said:
Quote:

And playing with a much, much higher level.


A much, much higher level what? His best game last year was against Gardner-Webb, a 1-10 team from FCS. He sucked against Hawaii, which had one of the worst defenses in FBS. He locks onto receivers, holds the ball too long, doesn't throw with anticipation and really struggles throwing to his left.

Can he overcome those issues? Possibly, but it is hard to make that much improvement when the competition level increases so much.
Look, in the Senior Bowl...  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 11:38 am : link
Allen was surrounded by real, quality talent and went 9/12, 150+, 2 TDs, and O Ints.

Sure, it's one sample. But it's a start... ;)
RE: Look, in the Senior Bowl...  
Section331 : 3/19/2018 11:40 am : link
In comment 13873981 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Allen was surrounded by real, quality talent and went 9/12, 150+, 2 TDs, and O Ints.

Sure, it's one sample. But it's a start... ;)


Sure, but it's a sample taken from a game that significantly restricts what defenses can do. That is why most pro scouts leave before the game, they can get more out of watching the players practice than they can from the game.
RE: RE: Look, in the Senior Bowl...  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 11:51 am : link
In comment 13873987 Section331 said:
Quote:
In comment 13873981 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Allen was surrounded by real, quality talent and went 9/12, 150+, 2 TDs, and O Ints.

Sure, it's one sample. But it's a start... ;)



Sure, but it's a sample taken from a game that significantly restricts what defenses can do. That is why most pro scouts leave before the game, they can get more out of watching the players practice than they can from the game.


I get it. I was being a bit facetious...
He has his supporters here  
allstarjim : 3/19/2018 12:14 pm : link
I am one of them. You also have to acknowledge that the jump to the NFL game is going to be larger for him than the other highly thought of QBs. It's going to be a bigger learning curve and it's a bigger risk. I think his talent makes him worth the risk, personally.
One thing that most don't know about Allen...  
Tom in NY : 3/19/2018 12:38 pm : link
until this post-season, he has never had a QB coach.
Not at Jr. College, not at Wyoming.

The 2017 Wyoming team was so bad they lost to San Jose State..in a game Allen did not play in due to his shoulder injury.

None of us are QB gurus, but Jim Miller and Pat Kirwan have been consistent since the Senior Bowl that Allen's accuracy issues are due to his footwork, specifically throwing to his left. Kirwan has repeatedly said that footwork is the most easily corrected issue with QBs, and that Allen's throwing motion is otherwise great.

I would be thrilled if the Giants took him and let Shula work with him for the next year, or even two. Allen has improved his footwork since the end of the regular season, to his bowl game, to the Senior Bowl, and the combine. His Pro Day is Friday (3/23)...let's see if the trend has continued.
RE: Like I said..  
Scyber : 3/19/2018 12:41 pm : link
In comment 13873887 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
above - you have to go back a few decades to find guys.

Find somebody in the 2000's or later who had a completion % at 56% in college who became an excellent pro.



There was a guy on reddit that did an analysis last year. Going back to 2002, there is only one QB with a college completion % below 58.5 that had any real success in the NFL. And that QB was David Garrard, so not even a ton of success.
https://www.reddit.com/r/nfl/comments/65zs0w/oc_why_585_is_the_magic_number_for_qbs_in_the_nfl/ - ( New Window )
Many who are not paid for smoke screens like him.  
GMen23 : 3/19/2018 12:57 pm : link
Specifically, Mayock, Kiper and many more. Personally, it's making me take notice.

But for the NEW YORK Giants, or Jets, for that matter, I worry that Gotham City, is too big for him. This is a real intangible NY teams have to deal with.

Watch the Combine interviews. Yeah they're all kids. But this clean cut, aw shucks guy, didn't grow up with Archie.
He grew up roping steers, and baling hay in Wyoming.

Darnold, Rosen, & Mayfield, are made for NY. Although, I don't think Mayfield is made for Mara.
I've seen a lot of his games  
allstarjim : 3/19/2018 1:16 pm : link
I'm a believer. I charted 5 games in which he threw a catchable ball that fell incomplete. Note, this is different than what the stat-compilers say is a drop, which can be subjective. I looked at it as, did he through a ball that could've reasonably been caught. I counted 21 passes that could've reasonably been caught in those games.

Results were they had been caught, just in those games, his completion percentage would've risen to 64%.

Obviously, if I was able to review all his games and make the same adjustment, it would be a lot higher. This accuracy thing is totally overblown.

The idea that he doesn't throw with touch is absolutely a completely false narrative, it was never true. Somebody said it on the interwebs and it got repeated over and over. It's a total, 100% fiction.

There are legitimate concerns about him jumping to the NFL but some of the major criticism themes aren't really valid. Going back to accuracy, you see throws into windows that are ridiculous with him. Long throws on the sideline that are just unreal, that most QBs playing in the NFL right now can't make.

One thing that is very difficult to factor in, are what percentage of his overall pass attempts were throwaways due to a breakdown in protection...legitimate times where the correct decision was to throw the ball away. What percentage of his pass attempts were hurried due to the same reason, where he really didn't have a good chance of completing the throw. Because there were games in which Wyoming is playing Oregon for example, and Oregon's defense is running through Wyoming's OL, just rushing 4, and they are barely slowing them down.

Those are stats that lend themselves to better analytics than just looking at completion % in a bubble. I'm pretty sure those numbers are going to be a lot higher than the other QBs. In that Oregon game he never had a chance, really.

You can calculate his completion % in just the games that have football teams that are close to the same level as Wyoming. Say you throw out the Iowa, Oregon, and Boise State games. You can make the argument that this is cherry-picking, it's a valid argument. However, I don't feel that those games allow you to really evaluate him as a passer because of the delta in talent between the opponents and Wyoming's players.

I'll even leave Colorado State in there, which you could argue they belong in that group. He's then over a 60% passer not including any drop rate. If I take away Colorado State from the equation, he's about a 62% passer, very similar to Rosen.

I know you get into shady territory when you start removing data from an analysis, but I do think that all of these other factors that have nothing to do with actually how accurate that Allen is, has played a very important role in that completion % number. These factors also make him much harder to evaluate, because the opportunity to watch him under "normal" game circumstances or with competent players around him are between few and non-existant. And that's where that increased risk comes from with a prospect like him. Unfortunately, he chose to play football at Wyoming...and we haven't even talked about the effect of throwing a frozen ball in snowy, windy conditions are on his completion %. Another advantage guys like Rosen and Darnold had on Allen is they played a lot of games in Southern California and other places with great weather.

So, I've made these points before, and rambled on way too long, but the main takeaway is anyone speaking about Allen in absolutes like, "he's not accurate," they aren't in a position to say that, and when you get into the analytics of it, you lean more towards that statement not being true at all.
I bet his  
rebel yell : 3/19/2018 1:18 pm : link
Mom likes him.
People fall in love with an arm like his  
Glover : 3/19/2018 3:03 pm : link
Lacks accuracy, played lesser competition. High ceiling. Will he fulfill his potential? Or be a strong armed turnover machine?
There is a reason..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/19/2018 3:10 pm : link
that completion % is a key metric in the jump from college to the pros. If you are struggling to complete passes at a lower level against inferior players, it reasons that against better competition you will struggle too, and that's what the statistics say since 2000.

I keep hearing arguments about his receivers sucking and his line sucking, but other QB's face the same issues and rise above them, or at least are accurate enough to see the potential at the next level. Everyone enamored with Allen is doing it based on his arm strength, something that will surely overcome mistakes, but to what extent?

I just keep going back to drafting him at #2. You really want to take a chance that he'll he the first guy with a sub 58% completion rate in college to have a great career since guys from the early 90's??
RE: There is a reason..  
allstarjim : 3/19/2018 3:32 pm : link
In comment 13874528 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
that completion % is a key metric in the jump from college to the pros. If you are struggling to complete passes at a lower level against inferior players, it reasons that against better competition you will struggle too, and that's what the statistics say since 2000.

I keep hearing arguments about his receivers sucking and his line sucking, but other QB's face the same issues and rise above them, or at least are accurate enough to see the potential at the next level. Everyone enamored with Allen is doing it based on his arm strength, something that will surely overcome mistakes, but to what extent?

I just keep going back to drafting him at #2. You really want to take a chance that he'll he the first guy with a sub 58% completion rate in college to have a great career since guys from the early 90's??


You can't just evaluate the number on its surface, you have to go deeper. When I went deeper, I didn't see an inaccurate QB. It's the difference between analytics and stats. Stats can be instructive, and they can mislead. Proper analytics will always be worth more and much more instructive.
But you only went deeper..  
FatMan in Charlotte : 3/19/2018 3:37 pm : link
with Allen. That's biasing the take.

Let's assume you are right on your assessment of catchable balls. We already know Allen has one of the lower drop rates - so that adds context. Now, what if you do a similar exercise for Rosen and see that his completion % should be around 90% if people caught balls "they should"?

Going deeper is fine - but it may not add anymore relevance at all. When we look at collegiate QB's who had lower than a 57% completion rate since 2000, there aren't any with great careers, especially ones worth a #2 pick.

Like I said - you don't have to buy into that, but are people really willing to risk expected failure at the #2 pick for a guy who overcomes terrible odds? I wouldn't be risky enough to do that, especially in a year where we need a sure hit.
RE: I've seen a lot of his games  
Section331 : 3/19/2018 3:39 pm : link
In comment 13874287 allstarjim said:
Quote:

You can calculate his completion % in just the games that have football teams that are close to the same level as Wyoming. Say you throw out the Iowa, Oregon, and Boise State games. You can make the argument that this is cherry-picking, it's a valid argument. However, I don't feel that those games allow you to really evaluate him as a passer because of the delta in talent between the opponents and Wyoming's players.



Because it is cherry picking. You want to drop all of the tough games he had? Can we then drop the Gardner-Webb game, a team that went 1-10 in a weak FCS conference?

Your argument boils down to: "if we take away all of his bad games, he's a good QB!" How does that explain Hawaii, the 130th ranked defense, where he was 9-19 for under 100 yards?

I watched video of his Boise St game, yes, he was pressured a bit, but he also locked onto receivers, forced the ball into coverage, didn't hit receivers in rhythm, and displayed piss poor pocket presence. He has shown little ability to complete passes to his left. That might be a bit of a thing at the next level.
RE: A lot of people..  
TyreeHelmet : 3/19/2018 3:51 pm : link
In comment 13873816 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
keep saying that accuracy can be improved, but it rarely has in recent years. You have to go back to Favre to find a QB with a deficient completion % to have major success in the NFL.

That's why people look at it as a red flag. If you have accuracy issues in college, they are compounded at the next level.

By the way - people also keep saying Allen's receivers were shit, but I've seen several sources cite that he actually had less drops than all the top QB's than one.


Fatman is spot on here. Way to risky at 2.
'Why does no one like him'...  
Torrag : 3/19/2018 4:02 pm : link
I have accuracy as my #1 determining factor for a QB's NFL success. Unfortunately it's not a good stat fopr Josh Allen. So I'm just not that high on him.
I mean, jeez, Kurt Benkert might have had more passes dropped than  
Greg from LI : 3/19/2018 4:04 pm : link
any other D-1 QB this year. His accuracy is still erratic anyway
RE: Acuracy...  
ajr2456 : 3/19/2018 6:23 pm : link
In comment 13873858 bw in dc said:
Quote:
Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.


All those players were in college 25-30 years ago, they're irrelevant to the accuracy conversation
Because he sucks and he'd be a horrible pick  
Breeze_94 : 3/19/2018 6:36 pm : link
Don't know how you can like this guy over Rosen or Darnold
RE: RE: Acuracy...  
bw in dc : 3/19/2018 6:36 pm : link
In comment 13874809 ajr2456 said:
Quote:
In comment 13873858 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.



All those players were in college 25-30 years ago, they're irrelevant to the accuracy conversation


Fair enough, I guess - I didn't realize there was a time period limit for the sake of the conversation. It wasn't like I was mentioning Otto Graham or Bart Starr.

Favre played until 2007. And he went from 52% at SoMiss to 60%+ in the pros.

RE: RE: There is a reason..  
ajr2456 : 3/19/2018 6:43 pm : link
In comment 13874578 allstarjim said:
Quote:
In comment 13874528 FatMan in Charlotte said:


Quote:


that completion % is a key metric in the jump from college to the pros. If you are struggling to complete passes at a lower level against inferior players, it reasons that against better competition you will struggle too, and that's what the statistics say since 2000.

I keep hearing arguments about his receivers sucking and his line sucking, but other QB's face the same issues and rise above them, or at least are accurate enough to see the potential at the next level. Everyone enamored with Allen is doing it based on his arm strength, something that will surely overcome mistakes, but to what extent?

I just keep going back to drafting him at #2. You really want to take a chance that he'll he the first guy with a sub 58% completion rate in college to have a great career since guys from the early 90's??



You can't just evaluate the number on its surface, you have to go deeper. When I went deeper, I didn't see an inaccurate QB. It's the difference between analytics and stats. Stats can be instructive, and they can mislead. Proper analytics will always be worth more and much more instructive.


If you don't see an innacurate QB, may I recommend my Lasik surgeon?
RE: RE: RE: Acuracy...  
ajr2456 : 3/19/2018 7:24 pm : link
In comment 13874826 bw in dc said:
Quote:
In comment 13874809 ajr2456 said:


Quote:


In comment 13873858 bw in dc said:


Quote:


Drew Bledsoe was in the low 50%s at Washington State and got up into the high 50%s in the pros - I think.

I'm pretty sure Jim Kelly was around 55% at Miami and got into the 60s with the Bills.

Bledsoe was a pretty good pro and Kelly was a great pro.



All those players were in college 25-30 years ago, they're irrelevant to the accuracy conversation



Fair enough, I guess - I didn't realize there was a time period limit for the sake of the conversation. It wasn't like I was mentioning Otto Graham or Bart Starr.

Favre played until 2007. And he went from 52% at SoMiss to 60%+ in the pros.


His senior year of college was 1990. The college game has changed so much in the last 8 years let alone the last 28
RE: I've seen a lot of his games  
You'reMyBoyBlue!! : 3/19/2018 8:41 pm : link
In comment 13874287 allstarjim said:
Quote:
I'm a believer. I charted 5 games in which he threw a catchable ball that fell incomplete. Note, this is different than what the stat-compilers say is a drop, which can be subjective. I looked at it as, did he through a ball that could've reasonably been caught. I counted 21 passes that could've reasonably been caught in those games.

Results were they had been caught, just in those games, his completion percentage would've risen to 64%.

Obviously, if I was able to review all his games and make the same adjustment, it would be a lot higher. This accuracy thing is totally overblown.

The idea that he doesn't throw with touch is absolutely a completely false narrative, it was never true. Somebody said it on the interwebs and it got repeated over and over. It's a total, 100% fiction.

There are legitimate concerns about him jumping to the NFL but some of the major criticism themes aren't really valid. Going back to accuracy, you see throws into windows that are ridiculous with him. Long throws on the sideline that are just unreal, that most QBs playing in the NFL right now can't make.

One thing that is very difficult to factor in, are what percentage of his overall pass attempts were throwaways due to a breakdown in protection...legitimate times where the correct decision was to throw the ball away. What percentage of his pass attempts were hurried due to the same reason, where he really didn't have a good chance of completing the throw. Because there were games in which Wyoming is playing Oregon for example, and Oregon's defense is running through Wyoming's OL, just rushing 4, and they are barely slowing them down.

Those are stats that lend themselves to better analytics than just looking at completion % in a bubble. I'm pretty sure those numbers are going to be a lot higher than the other QBs. In that Oregon game he never had a chance, really.

You can calculate his completion % in just the games that have football teams that are close to the same level as Wyoming. Say you throw out the Iowa, Oregon, and Boise State games. You can make the argument that this is cherry-picking, it's a valid argument. However, I don't feel that those games allow you to really evaluate him as a passer because of the delta in talent between the opponents and Wyoming's players.

I'll even leave Colorado State in there, which you could argue they belong in that group. He's then over a 60% passer not including any drop rate. If I take away Colorado State from the equation, he's about a 62% passer, very similar


Great stuff and completely agree. He obviously comes with some risk, and the completion % gives you pause, but I've watched a ton of his cut up full games and I just don't see an inaccurate passer of the football. He's raw with sloppy footwork, but stuff like footwork absolutely can be corrected. But when he is set and in proper alignment he imo absolutely has solid ball placement with possibly the strongest arm I've ever seen. Every game he'd make a throw that would make your jaw drop.

Not to mention how much the scheme he was running and the talent around him handicapped him numbers wise compared to the other projected first round QBs.

My bigger issue with him is presnap reads/adjustments and read progressions. Not that I think he's poor in those areas, I just can't pretend to have any real ability to assess that, tho I'd imagine he's less developed in that regard too

I think he's going to be the best QB of the bunch 5 years down the road, but I'm just a fan and fully get people not wanting to take the risk that comes with taking him at 2. I would love it if the Giants talent evaluators see enough in him to warrant drafting him that high with a plan to develop his off the charts tools over time, but if not, I'll obviously trust their judgment over mine.
RE: But you only went deeper..  
allstarjim : 3/19/2018 11:06 pm : link
In comment 13874586 FatMan in Charlotte said:
Quote:
with Allen. That's biasing the take.

Let's assume you are right on your assessment of catchable balls. We already know Allen has one of the lower drop rates - so that adds context. Now, what if you do a similar exercise for Rosen and see that his completion % should be around 90% if people caught balls "they should"?

Going deeper is fine - but it may not add anymore relevance at all. When we look at collegiate QB's who had lower than a 57% completion rate since 2000, there aren't any with great careers, especially ones worth a #2 pick.

Like I said - you don't have to buy into that, but are people really willing to risk expected failure at the #2 pick for a guy who overcomes terrible odds? I wouldn't be risky enough to do that, especially in a year where we need a sure hit.


I've watched more of Rosen than Allen. Rosen is very accurate inside 25 or so yards, I won't deny that. I'm trying to project him to the pro game where he is going to have NFL pass rushers coming after him. I don't think Rosen feels pressure good enough or is a playmaker when things are collapsing. It's not really an accuracy issue with Rosen although I think his deep accuracy is horribly overrated by many on BBI.

When I say I've gone deeper with Allen it's because I have watched a lot of of his throws with a critical eye, and you put it all together, you can't conclude that he has an accuracy problem. Another thing about him is he threw a lot of deep balls, that have a lower success rate. Not a lot of high percentage dinks and dunks in that Wyoming offense.
Dear OP,  
DonQuixote : 3/19/2018 11:17 pm : link
You are not missing anything. Been predicting Josh Allen at 1 or 2 for months
Give  
Dragon : 3/20/2018 7:31 am : link
Allen the same guys to play with Darnold and Rosen had hard to say he can't do the same things or even more. The NFL QB position is no different than other positions it's still about getting the best available talent and teaching it to perform to your requirements.
Not only can’t he hit the broad side of the barn  
Jimmy Googs : 3/20/2018 7:46 am : link
he would likely miss the surrounding farm.

He’s the kind of QB that makes me say, Eli isn’t regressing that much...
RE: Many who are not paid for smoke screens like him.  
royhobbs7 : 3/20/2018 8:01 am : link
In comment 13874237 GMen23 said:
Quote:
Specifically, Mayock, Kiper and many more. Personally, it's making me take notice.

But for the NEW YORK Giants, or Jets, for that matter, I worry that Gotham City, is too big for him. This is a real intangible NY teams have to deal with.

Watch the Combine interviews. Yeah they're all kids. But this clean cut, aw shucks guy, didn't grow up with Archie.
He grew up roping steers, and baling hay in Wyoming.

Darnold, Rosen, & Mayfield, are made for NY. Although, I don't think Mayfield is made for Mara.


All of the top four QBs have warts. Stay away............
Rosen would be the choice of the four, but the injury potential is real.
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