NFT: NHL Playoff Thread

was unreal, going back to Toronto.

In comment 13924596 pjcas18 said:

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was unreal, going back to Toronto.

Entertaining game.

I haven't checked but I'm going to guess Corsi and Fenwick overwhelmingly are in Boston's favor. Hot goalie and/or capitalizing on the few opportunities you have offsets possession and zone starts, etc.

Everything except PDO.

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These numbers from tonight's game via @NatStatTrick are something else.. 11:05 PM - 21 Apr 2018

...

great games all day

In comment 13924604 pjcas18 said:

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I haven't checked but I'm going to guess Corsi and Fenwick overwhelmingly are in Boston's favor. Hot goalie and/or capitalizing on the few opportunities you have offsets possession and zone starts, etc. Everything except PDO. Quote: These numbers from tonight's game via @NatStatTrick are something else.. 11:05 PM - 21 Apr 2018

I don�t understand this point. Like any statistic, small sample size is a factor. Nobody that believes in advanced stats claims that having the advantage in numbers for a single game leads to a certain win

I think PDO is a better indicator of results than Corsi or Fenwick.

this morning U18 WJC 3 - 1 (ENG).

Good game, awful officiating - typical in INTL tourneys like this, hughes looks good, Boqvist looked good.

Of the two Samuelsson's I think I like Mattias (Kjell's son), I think he'll be good in the NHL.

In comment 13924627 pjcas18 said:

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I think PDO is a better indicator of results than Corsi or Fenwick.

Pj is going to cling to this no matter what. PDO is very clearly a lagging indicator stat. It tells you what anyone watching last nights game already knew - the Leafs were lucky to win the game and Anderson played terrific.

If Boston continues to dominate this series - more likely than not, Boston will win game 6.

there are a lot of people that eschew using Corsi (for example) as an indicator of anything other than shot differential, no correlation to success or an infinitesimal before the fact or even as a lagging indicator.

Especially something IMV as meaningless as individual Corsi.

This WAPO article does a decent job explaining my point, and while they don't cite PDO, they use scoring chances and dangerous scoring chances as better correlative - though I'd love to see someone predict that. I like advanced stats in baseball, it's an individual sport for the most part, hockey and football have too much reliance on teammates and circumstance to boil down this way. And I'm not saying anyone on here is guilty of it, but too often you will see the advanced stats cited as an indicator of something they're not.

You could argue that Corsi influences scoring chances and maybe that's possible, but I don't know that's the case. I was always taught playing defense that forcing a player to shoot from a "safe" spot was a win for the defense, and I was taught as a forward that if you don't have a play you have options (stop, delay make a play (LOL) - which is funny because it's phrased that way for kids, but watch an NHL game and tell me you don't see that done 30 times a game or more) - or as acceptably throw the puck on net - all coaches will tell you good things happen when you put the puck on net.

I don't think either of those plays - a defenseman forcing a player outside the dots to take a low percentage shot or a forward putting the puck on net - no matter what the outcome of either one - should be an indicator or factor into an advanced stat.

If you watched PIT vs PHI last game (game 5) the Penguins controlled the play and zone time, but the PHI defense collapsed into the middle clogging the lanes. PIT had the puck but didn't get many threatening chances and on the few times when they did Neuvirth came up big.

I'll admit that Corsi can be informative, it probably does predict corsi going forward.

And I also admit PDO is not predictive, but it's a far better correlation than Corsi of what happened and why - even if it is lagging.

Again in the PIT/PHI game 5. PIT controlled the play in fact dominated it and a clearing attempt doesn't make it out and a shot hits a stick in front and in two plays/plays not made the Flyers have a lead.

What stat tells you that was going to happen? None, what tells why it did? PDO. IMO.


Stop using Corsi to assess NHL teams - ( New Window )

the Namestnikov example used is a perfect reason why I think attaching some of these advanced stats to individuals is even less meaningful than the team overall.

Namestnikov played on a line with Stamkos and Kucherov. Are his high danger shots really an indicator of anything about HIM?

I doubt it.

In comment 13924282 Route 9 said:

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mocked 97-04 Rangers for missing the playoffs. I can't get on the same train? Nice to see your fanbase act proud of your team getting bounced the first round. Hell the fucking Eagles won after 58 years and Cubs after 100+ years so you might want to watch your tone. That's my point, those Devil cups are old news as well.

Yeah but making the playoffs with this group was totally unexpected. I don�t give one good metric fuck about the Rangers, their playoff streak? Or anything about them. You�re simply a team in the Eastern conference we need to surpass. Forgive me for being hopeful about my team�s future when a young team exceeds expectations. How�s that for watching my tone?

Toronto won last night because Toronto's PDO was high and Boston's was low. It doesnt tell you anything about who will win game 6, other than if Boston continues to dominate possession and scoring chances - they'll probably win as luck normalizes.

Also agree high danger scoring changes and other metrics that are more detailed than just shot totals are a better indicator of future success.

By the way, speaking of Corsi - i noticed yesterday Tampa gives Girardi a lot of minutes with Hedman. Cant believe NYR are absorbing 5 more years of dead cap money on this guy... he had trade value, though I'm educated guessing DG said he'd refuse any deal made. He ended up getting a nice raise out of the whole ordeal.

In comment 13925033 pjcas18 said:

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the Namestnikov example used is a perfect reason why I think attaching some of these advanced stats to individuals is even less meaningful than the team overall. Namestnikov played on a line with Stamkos and Kucherov. Are his high danger shots really an indicator of anything about HIM? I doubt it.

everyone discounted Namestnikov's value due to his linemates. Its also probably why Chicago couldnt get more for Panarin last summer too.

In comment 13925036 MetsAreBack said:

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Toronto won last night because Toronto's PDO was high and Boston's was low. It doesnt tell you anything about who will win game 6, other than if Boston continues to dominate possession and scoring chances - they'll probably win as luck normalizes. Also agree high danger scoring changes and other metrics that are more detailed than just shot totals are a better indicator of future success. By the way, speaking of Corsi - i noticed yesterday Tampa gives Girardi a lot of minutes with Hedman. Cant believe NYR are absorbing 5 more years of dead cap money on this guy... he had trade value, though I'm educated guessing DG said he'd refuse any deal made. He ended up getting a nice raise out of the whole ordeal.

I am surprised how bad Hedman is defensively, I think it may be partly by design they want his offense - but man he's a hack back there. Maybe they view Girardi with his stay at home style and being a shot blocking magnet a safe partner for Hedman. Not sure.

And I disagree, possession alone won't give you a better chance to win necessarily. scoring chances may, not possession or even shot differential IMO.

In comment 13925037 MetsAreBack said:

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In comment 13925033 pjcas18 said: Quote: the Namestnikov example used is a perfect reason why I think attaching some of these advanced stats to individuals is even less meaningful than the team overall. Namestnikov played on a line with Stamkos and Kucherov. Are his high danger shots really an indicator of anything about HIM? I doubt it. everyone discounted Namestnikov's value due to his linemates. Its also probably why Chicago couldnt get more for Panarin last summer too.

Not sure I'd compare them. Panarin was scoring 70+ points as a rookie and won a Calder and Toews and Kane don't even play together except on the PP and Panarin wasn't heavily weights with PP points. I still don't get that trade at all. I thought it was $$$ but Saad I think made similar $$$.

Namestnikov even with Kucherov and Stamkos had just ~44 points.

The Canadiens (fans) wanted to ship Galchenyuk to the Coyotes for a draft pick for that production - playing next to two AHL players.

I think his 4 points in 19 games with the Rangers showed who Namestnikov is.

Wow now I�ve heard it all

But that one is pretty far out there.

It wasn�t pretty but I will take it. Did anyone think the refs were doing all they could to get the Bruins back in the game? It sure seemed like a lot of embellishment to me going on last night. 6 power plays for Bruins.....one for Leafs.

Actually I am genuinely curious: what would be your current top 5 defensemen in the league? Seems like we often have a difference in opinion when it comes to defense (Hedman, PK, etc.). I�d be interested to see who you consider to be the elite group, when you get the chance.

In comment 13925080 Kyle in NY said:

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But that one is pretty far out there.

Are you watching the games? I never thought so, but man he pinches constantly and is continually responsible for giving up odd man rushes.

Just off the past few weeks of playoffs and regular season jockeying I think John Carlson was robbed - should have been Norris, at least a finalist.

Watched a lot of Tampa this season and obviously in past playoffs, I�ve always been impressed with Hedman. But I didn�t see much of the Devils series as their games were often at the same time as the Columbus series. If he struggled in that series I�ll take your word for it.

I won�t be missing much of a potential Tampa/Boston series.

I think he�s been the best player in that series, at least for the Caps. He�s about to get paid.

because if you view it in terms of team and system stats can be misleading, some teams need an offensive defenseman, some teams need a defensive defenseman, but being evaluated as all round 2-way D this would be my top 5 in no particular order (and this is not who had the best 2017-2018) - because I love Subban, but I don't think he deserves the Norris this year:

Roman Josi
Erik Karlsson
Brent Burns
Drew Doughty
Seth Jones

next 5 would be (also in no particular order):
Werenski
Klinberg
Subban
Hamilton
Hedman

As I said, I think Hedman may be pinching by design and hence his partnership with someone like Girardi.

A ton of really good D in the NHL. Hard to leave John Carlson off, or someone like the underrated Pietrangelo, up and coming Gostibehere, Trouba, Byfuglien, I love what I'm seeing from Rielly in Toronto. And then veterans like Weber who missed most of the season or would be on here or Suter.

Because I�ve seen many describe Josi as someone that has a reputation as a great offensive defenseman, but just ok in his own end (sort of how you describe Hedman). And when I do catch their games I�ve noticed it as well. Still think he�s a great player though. Toughest position to evaluate by far. No one right answer. I�d probably go:

Karlsson
Doughty
Seth Jones (might be ahead of Doughty before long)
Hedman
PK

Then in some order Burns, Werenski, Hamilton, Pietrangelo, Klingberg. Duncan Keith just fall off this list over the last year or two.

I guess we�re not too far off, definitely in agreement on how good the two are in Columbus.

Lindholm, Carlson, Trouba, McDonagh, Suter as honorable mentions, Charlie Mcavoy will be up there before long too.

In comment 13925136 Kyle in NY said:

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Lindholm, Carlson, Trouba, McDonagh, Suter as honorable mentions, Charlie Mcavoy will be up there before long too.

Yeah, I love McAvoy's game. He's 20 years old. Ekblad is another guy not far behind the others, if he is behind them. So many good D now and I think almost immediately like McDavid vaulted to the head of the forward rankings Dahlin shouldn't take long to crack the D.

And as for Josi, I see Josi as so solid in both ends, he's one of those D who never has to leave the ice, against the other top line, with your top line, PK, PP. He's just about as solid as they come.

this kind of a leap by Sean Couturier this season. He�s a difference maker. Fun game in Philly

In comment 13925311 Kyle in NY said:

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this kind of a leap by Sean Couturier this season. He�s a difference maker. Fun game in Philly

and he's a selke finalist. That's my kind of player.

Love what his game has evolved into.

by Kessel.

get away with a trip, and resulting turnover leads to a goal. Up 2 with around 7 left.

Bad no call.

it's probably over. Guentzel with 4 goals.

AMac especially - worst contract ever. Thanks Holmgren.

on D with Gost and Provorov, so really 2nd/3rd pair D shouldn't be that hard to get.

But at home there is very little reason to have Gudas anywhere near the ice when Crosby is out there and it seemed like every time that matchup happened the Pens scored.

has turned into a pumpkin.

Nashville is a better team and has had better chances, but man that's I'd say three soft goals, in a 4 - 0 game.

COL, West 2nd round is set.

WIN vs NSH - holy shit, great series, anyone who has not yet seen WIN should watch. Not sure they have enough to beat NSH who is very deep and not just on the blue line, but they are young, fast, and fun to watch.

LVG vs SJS - the two teams who swept sit idly waiting for the 2nd round to start. Not sure that's a good thing, but no one really complains about rest during the playoffs. It's a grind.

Two game 6's tonight, TOR vs BOS, I expect BOS to close it out and CBJ vs WAS.

Both teams at home can force game 7's with W's on Wednesday. I expect both series to end, but hope they don't. If they do it's TBL vs BOS and PIT vs WAS and it probably will be those matchups anyway. two more great series.


tomorrow USA plays Belarus in the U18 WJC and need a W probably to advance to the QF's. I think they'd advance wit a loss, since they beat Switzerland, but not sure. a W would be better though a win means they probably play host Russia in the QF's.

Both teams at home can force game 7's with W's on Wednesday. I expect both series to end...

both teams can force games with W's tonight and the game 7's would be Wednesday.

And I expect both series to end [tonight]

of course they'll end eventually.

In comment 13925407 pjcas18 said:

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on D with Gost and Provorov, so really 2nd/3rd pair D shouldn't be that hard to get. But at home there is very little reason to have Gudas anywhere near the ice when Crosby is out there and it seemed like every time that matchup happened the Pens scored.

Gudas was beyond horrible in his own zone. I mean, just brutal. People on twitter are wondering if he's a double agent:
Link - ( New Window )

The NFL could really learn from the NHL with the split screen commercial breaks.

screen commercial. NFL could use it too.

And I'm not a huge soccer fan, but one of the issues with soccer in the US/TV IMO is there just isn't enough commercial opportunities to get advertisers to the sport, but this kind of approach could help soccer too.

they're not even in the playoffs, but one poster was commenting on their drafting.

This is a good defense core, though I don't think Timmins was around for Markov though I could be mistaken - he was responsible for all the rest though (from a scouting standpoint).

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Brian Wilde ‏ @BWildeRecrutes 19h19 hours ago Mcdonagh Subban Sergachev Mete Juulsen Markov If Habs GMs through the years would just leave Timmins to work alone & leave their nose out of it. You think this D-corps would have made the playoffs this season ? That�s a damn good D in the past & a damn good D in the future.

allegedly wants to come back, a lot of negative comments on twitter saying NFW.

In general I think people who commit crimes should serve their time and be accepted into society but I would not want my team (or any team) to sign Voynov after his incident.

Bruins swarming all period. Leafs D constantly throws the puck up the boards or struggles with the breakout otherwise leading to sustained pressure in the Toronto zone.

But Andersen has held up through the onslaught.

Scoreless at end of one.

and I admit though I haven't watched CBJ/WAS tonight.

Leafs had a goal taken off the board for goalie interference (shitty call IMO) and now take the lead 2 - 1.

Like last game, Bruins have dominated zone time and lead in shots. Losing on the scoreboard.

Toronto to the PP.

That only got into hockey a couple of years ago, I only really watch the Rangers games and playoffs. I heard a lot of good things about Matthews but he�s yet to turn up in the playoffs.

Again. Come playoff time. Again.

like we have a game 7 in Boston. unless there's another meltdown like 2013 (?)

to see who plays TB.

I'd complain about CBJ blowing a 2 - 0 lead when they won two games on the road, but I am looking forward to yet another PIT vs WAS series. Love seeing Ovie vs Crosby, these games get so physical and so much skill.

At least we get a game 7 and I think it's a Boston tease, they've dominated all the games except 1 and are tied 3 - 3 because Freddie Andersen found a playoff gear. He's playing incredible hockey and stole the last two games.

In comment 13927281 pjcas18 said:

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like we have a game 7 in Boston. unless there's another meltdown like 2013 (?)

Holy shit that was that long ago?

We won sometime in the 90s and have lost the last 8 series that have been played between the two teams. I�d like our chances better if Pitt wasn�t so bloody good.